A prospective cohort study linking migration, climate, and malaria risk in the Peruvian Amazon
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Annika K. Gunderson↗
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The 2005 Amazon Drought Legacy Effect Delayed the 2006 Wet Season Onset
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Mingjie Shi↗
Unraveling the Role of Temperature and Rainfall on Active Fires in the Brazilian Amazon Using a Nonlinear Poisson Model
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Carlos H. R. Lima↗
Effects of deforestation and forest degradation on ecosystem service indicators across the Southwestern Amazon
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Yunuen Reygadas↗
Flood pulse effects on multispecies fishery yields in the Lower Amazon
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Leandro Castello↗
Aqua-planet simulations of the formation of the South Atlantic convergence zone
The impact of Amazon Basin convection and cold fronts on the formation and maintenance of the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) is studied using aqua-planet simulations with a general circulation model. In the model, a circular patch of warm sea-surface temperature (SST) is used to mimic the effect of the Amazon Basin on South American monsoon convection. The aqua-planet simulations were designed to study the effect of the strength and latitude of Amazon Basin convection on the formation of the SACZ. The simulations indicate that the strength of the SACZ increases as the Amazon convection intensifies and is moved away from the equator. Of the two controls studied here, the latitude of the Amazon convection exerts the strongest effect on the strength of the SACZ. An analysis of the synoptic-scale variability in the simulations shows the importance of frontal systems in the formation of the aqua-planet SACZ. Composite time series of frontal systems that occurred in the simulations show that a robust SACZ occurs when fronts penetrate into the subtropics and become stationary there as they cross eastward of the longitude of the Amazon Basin. Moisture convergence associated with these frontal systems produces rainfall not along the model SACZ region and along a large portion of the northern model Amazon Basin. Simulations in which the warm SST patch was too weak or too close to the equator did not produce frontal systems that extended into the tropics and became stationary, and did not form a SACZ. In the model, the SACZ forms as Amazon Basin convection strengthens and migrates far enough southward to allow frontal systems to penetrate into the tropics and stall over South America. This result is in agreement with observations that the SACZ tends to form after the onset of the monsoon season in the Amazon Basin.
South American Monsoon↗
Morton et al. Reply
Multiple mechanisms could lead to up-regulation of dry-season photosynthesis in Amazon forests, including canopy phenology and illumination geometry. We specifically tested two mechanisms for phenology-driven changes in Amazon forests during dry-season months, and the combined evidence from passive optical and lidar satellite data was incompatible with large net changes in canopy leaf area or leaf reflectance suggested by previous studies. We therefore hypothesized that seasonal changes in the fraction of sunlit and shaded canopies, one aspect of bidirectional reflectance effects in Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, could alter light availability for dry-season photosynthesis and the photosynthetic capacity of Amazon forests without large net changes in canopy composition. Subsequent work supports the hypothesis that seasonal changes in illumination geometry and diffuse light regulate light saturation in Amazon forests. These studies clarify the physical mechanisms that govern light availability in Amazon forests from seasonal variability in direct and diffuse illumination. Previously, in the debate over light limitation of Amazon forest productivity, seasonal changes in the distribution of light within complex Amazon forest canopies were confounded with dry-season increases in total incoming photosynthetically active radiation. In the accompanying Comment, Saleska et al. do not fully account for this confounding effect of forest structure on photosynthetic capacity.
Morton, Douglas C.↗
Far-Reaching Impacts of African Dust- A Calipso Perspective
African dust can transport across the tropical Atlantic and reach the Amazon basin, exerting far-reaching impacts on climate in downwind regions. The transported dust influences the surface-atmosphere interactions and cloud and precipitation processes through perturbing the surface radiative budget and atmospheric radiative heating and acting as cloud condensation nuclei and ice nuclei. Dust also influences biogeochemical cycle and climate through providing nutrients vital to the productivity of ocean biomass and Amazon forests. Assessing these climate impacts relies on an accurate quantification of dust transport and deposition. Currently model simulations show extremely large diversity, which calls for a need of observational constraints. Kaufman et al. (2005) estimated from MODIS aerosol measurements that about 144 Tg of dust is deposited into the tropical Atlantic and 50 Tg of dust into the Amazon in 2001. This estimated dust import to Amazon is a factor of 3-4 higher than other observations and models. However, several studies have argued that the oversimplified characterization of dust vertical profile in the study would have introduced large uncertainty and very likely a high bias. In this study we quantify the trans-Atlantic dust transport and deposition by using 7 years (2007-2013) observations from CALIPSO lidar. CALIPSO acquires high-resolution aerosol extinction and depolarization profiles in both cloud-free and above-cloud conditions. The unique CALIPSO capability of profiling aerosols above clouds offers an unprecedented opportunity of examining uncertainties associated with the use of MODIS clear-sky data. Dust is separated from other types of aerosols using the depolarization measurements. We estimated that on the basis of 7-year average, 118142 Tg of dust is deposited into the tropical Atlantic and 3860 Tg of dust into the Amazon basin. Substantial interannual variations are observed during the period, with the maximum to minimum ratio of about 1.6 and 2.5 for the deposition to the tropical Atlantic and Amazon, respectively. The MODIS-based estimates appear to fall within the range of CALIPSO-based estimates; and the difference between MODIS and CALIPSO estimates can be largely attributed to the interannual variability, which is corroborated by long-term surface dust concentration observations in the tropical Atlantic. Considering that CALIPSO generally tends to underestimate the aerosol loading, our estimate is likely to represent a low bound for the dust transport and deposition estimate. The finding suggests that models have substantial biases and considerable effort is needed to improve model simulations of dust cycle.
dust↗
Space Transformation -- Localizing the Remote and Connecting the Isolated
In motivating the Space Transformation theme for this year’s 4S symposium, the organizers provided the following context, “Transformation of economies are driven by a change in values and accelerated by new technologies.” These words rang particularly true when I read them at the beginning of the holiday season. Like so many others, I was in the early phases of my Christmas shopping procrastination campaign, and I’d just been reflecting on how Amazon Prime was the transformational tool I’d been waiting for. Basic limiting principles of time and space, supply and demand, were all but erased by the Amazon Prime phenomenon. Coupled with emerging 3D printing and other adaptive manufacturing technologies, a transformation from deliberate planning to “think it … have it” had occurred, empowering me to procrastinate longer than I’d ever dreamed possible. The organizers went on to ponder, “Will space transformation also affect society?”, just as our team at the Air Force Research Lab’s (AFRL) Center for Rapid Innovation (CRI) were working alongside partners within our larger Integrated Capabilities Directorate, NASA’s Flight Opportunities and Small Spacecraft Technology programs, and DARPA’s Luna-10 program to develop technologies and execute demonstration missions that leverage the space domain to genuinely connect even the most remote and austere domains on the timeline of need. Picking apart the miracle that is Amazon prime, where does the model fail, and why? More relevantly to the theme of this year’s symposium, how can the space domain be used to overcome its limitations and minimize its weaknesses? Perhaps it is best assessed in the context of Use Cases. What are the Amazon delivery cost, schedule, and cargo limiters to the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Research Station, or the Lunar South Pole Research Station? This paper will explore enabling infrastructure that allows Amazon prime to thrive and assess the transformational enabling technologies that would be necessary to extend that miracle to the truly remote or the truly austere. Localizing the Remote • First, it will evaluate the ability of the on-going AFRL Rocket Cargo and Space Initiatives Ringside Seats systems, coupled with Astrobotic’s Xodiak and Xogdor capabilities, developed to support the NASA Flight Opportunities Program (FOP), to supply orbital/suborbital delivery to both improved and austere sites on the Earth and Moon. • Then, it will add the surface terminal distribution leg, with an examination of Lunar Outpost’s Mobile Autonomous Prospecting Platform (MAPP), equipped with Mobile Autonomous Robotic Swarm (MARS) software, and Intuitive Machine’s Hopper, developed with support of AFRL and NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program. Connecting the Isolated From there, it will focus on the destination, asking what implied destination services are required to support highly assured autonomous delivery. • Specifically, it will highlight Astrobotic’s Skymage mesh-networked publish and subscribe communication and navigation service, as well as AFRL’s on-going developments of radioisotope and reactor nuclear-sourced thermoelectric power generation and distribution systems under development under the Joint Emergent Technology Supplying On-orbit Nuclear Power (JETSON) program by Lockheed Martin, Westinghouse, Intuitive Machines, and Zeno Power, to provide the power service to locations well off the grid. • Finally, the paper will connect to the “human machine”. What connects the remote or in-situ human consumer to the remote domain? What connects the diverse international government and commercial services to each other? The former will focus on AFRL’s OraCloud feeding their Space Defense Control and Characterization System (SDCCS) and Lunar Station’s MoonHacker systems, while the latter will focus on the BlueHalo/Tensor LunX Technology Platform for the Cislunar Commodity Marketplace. In 1984, Krafft Ehricke famously remarked that, “If God wanted man to become a spacefaring species, He would have given man a Moon.” This paper is not about the Moon, but is about humans as a spacefaring species, shedding the pesky land/air limitations of the Amazon Prime model … so that we can all live a procrastinator’s “think it … have it” existence.
Charles Finley↗
Abrupt Increases in Amazonian Tree Mortality Due to Drought-Fire Interactions
Interactions between climate and land-use change may drive widespread degradation of Amazonian forests. High-intensity fires associated with extreme weather events could accelerate this degradation by abruptly increasing tree mortality, but this process remains poorly understood. Here we present, to our knowledge, the first field-based evidence of a tipping point in Amazon forests due to altered fire regimes. Based on results of a large-scale, longterm experiment with annual and triennial burn regimes (B1yr and B3yr, respectively) in the Amazon, we found abrupt increases in fire-induced tree mortality (226 and 462%) during a severe drought event, when fuel loads and air temperatures were substantially higher and relative humidity was lower than long-term averages. This threshold mortality response had a cascading effect, causing sharp declines in canopy cover (23 and 31%) and aboveground live biomass (12 and 30%) and favoring widespread invasion by flammable grasses across the forest edge area (80 and 63%), where fires were most intense (e.g., 220 and 820 kW x m(exp −1)). During the droughts of 2007 and 2010, regional forest fires burned 12 and 5% of southeastern Amazon forests, respectively, compared with less than 1% in nondrought years. These results show that a few extreme drought events, coupled with forest fragmentation and anthropogenic ignition sources, are already causing widespread fire-induced tree mortality and forest degradation across southeastern Amazon forests. Future projections of vegetation responses to climate change across drier portions of the Amazon require more than simulation of global climate forcing alone and must also include interactions of extreme weather events, fire, and land-use change.
MODIS↗
Organic Matter in Itokawa Particles
The first Hayabusa mission returned samples from the near-Earth S-type asteroid 25143 Itokawa to Earth in 2010[1]. Although Itokawa has a lithology related to ordinary chondrites(OCs) that typically have low organic contents, several Itokawa particles were found to contain organic matter (OM)[2-5]. However, there was not an explicit conclusion to the origin of the observed OMin these early studies. We have extended our search for OM into other Itokawa grains. Here, we report extraterrestrial OM (macromolecular carbon and amino acids) observed in six Itokawa particles(including a category1 particle: RA-QD02-0162[#62; also nicknamed “Amazon”],and five category3 carbon-rich particles:RA-QD02-0012[#12], RA-QD02-0078[#78], RB-CV-0029[#29], RB-CV-0080 [#80] and RB-QD04-0052[#52]).All allocated Itokawa samples were initially analysed by spot and point-by-point mapping Raman spectroscopic analysis at the Open University, UK. Amazon was then transferred and mounted into indium on an aluminium stub, which was studied with a NanoSIMS 50L ion microprobe for its H,C,N isotopic compositions. The rest of the samples were mounted in sterile gold foils, and the amino acid contents of their acid hydrolysed hot water extracts were obtained with a liquid chromatography with tandem fluorescence and accurate mass detection at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, USA. Based on the observation of the Raman parameters(e.g. the peak locations and widths of the defect (D) and graphite (G) bands)[6], a significant variety of carbonaceous materials has been observed in Amazon. The carbonaceous materials include primitive and unaltered OM that shares similarity with the IOM in primitive (CI,CM,CR) carbonaceous chondrites, as well as OM that has been heavily graphitised. The organic structure of the heated material is best represented by nanocrystalline graphite, comparable to that observed for metamorphosed meteorites (e.g., L3–6 Inman, Tieschitz and New Concord,CV3 Allende, and EH4 Indarch),suggesting peak metamorphic temperatures (PMT) of >~600°C. The thermal history recorded in the graphitic OM agrees with PMT estimates for returned Itokawa regolith grains (600–800°C)[7].We have obtained the H,C,N isotopic compositions for the primitive OM in Amazon, which exhibits unambiguously extraterrestrial isotopic signatures (δD = +4868±2288‰; δ13C = −24±5‰; δ15N = +344±20‰), contrasting to the typically negative isotopic values obtained for terrestrial organic matter[8]. The δD and δ13C values of the organic material in Amazon are comparable to OCs, however, the δ15N value is higher than that typically observed for OCs (δ15N = −47 to +36‰), and is similar to that of CRs (δ15N = +153 to +309‰)[9].Our data suggest a genetic link between the primitive organic material observed in Itokawa to CRs and IDPs for they share similar D, 13C and 15N enrichments[10].The high carbon contents of the five category 3 Itokawa particles suggest potentially higher OM abundances, hence we extracted and analysed amino acids in these samples. Although terrestrial contamination was observed primarily as L-protein amino acids, several terrestrially uncommon non-protein amino acids were also observed at low abundances, such as β-aminoisobutyric acid (β-AIB),β-amino-n-butyric acid (β-ABA), and β-alanine. Itokawa amino acid content observed here was dissimilar to thermally altered OCs, but preliminarily analogous to more aqueously altered CR2s.Continued evolution of Itokawa is evident by the in fall of primitive organic material derived from CRs/IDPs, accounting for a complex interplay between the remnant Itokawa silicates with exogenous organics. The results reported here are the first evidence of extraterrestrial OM in asteroid material from a sample-return mission, showcasing a working protocol for analysing samples returned by the Hayabusa2 and OSIRIS-REx missions
Q. H. S. Chan↗
Predicting Fire Susceptibility in the Forests of Amazonia
Although fire is the single greatest threat to the ecological integrity of Amazon forests, our ability to predict the occurrence of Amazon forest fires is rudimentary. Part of the difficulty encountered in making such predictions is the remarkable capacity of Amazon forests to tolerate drought by tapping moisture stored in deep soil. These forests can avoid drought-induced leaf shedding by withdrawing moisture to depths of 8 meters and more. Hence, the absorption of deep soil moisture allows these forests to maintain their leaf canopies following droughts of several months duration, thereby maintaining the deep shade and high relative humidity of the forest interior that prevents these ecosystems from burning. But the drought- and fire-avoidance that is conferred by this deep-rooting phenomenon is not unlimited. During successive years of drought, such as those provoked by El Nino episodes, deep soil moisture can be depleted, and drought-induced leaf shedding begins. The goal of this project was to incorporate this knowledge of Amazon forest fire ecology into a predictive model of forest flammability.
Nepstad, Daniel C.↗
The Bi-Modal Pattern of the Summer Circulation Over South America
Submonthly variations in warm-season (January-February) precipitation over South America, in special over the Amazon basin, central southwest Brazil, north Argentina, and Paraguay are shown to be strongly linked to variations in the moisture entering the continent from the Atlantic ocean. Two distinct regimes of lower tropospheric winds (westerlies and easterlies) were observed in Rondonia during the Wet Season Atmospheric Mesoscale Campaign (WETAMC) component of the Large Scale Atmosphere-Biosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) field campaign. The westerly (easterly) winds were associated with the strong (weak) convective activity over the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). The whole period of this study (January-February) was divided into SACZ and NSACZ (No SACZ) events. The vertically integrated moisture fluxes over the Amazon and Prata basin from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Goddard Data Assimilation Office (NASA/DAO) assimilation show that during SACZ (NSACZ) event strong (weak) convergence occurred over the Amazon basin with divergence (convergence) over the Prata basin. Submonthly variations in the SACZ also can be linked to extreme climate anomalies such as droughts or flooding conditions over the Amazon and Prata basin.
Herdies, Dirceu Luis↗
Low-Cost Evaluation of EO-1 Hyperion and ALI for Detection and Biophysical Characterization of Forest Logging in Amazonia (NCC5-481)
Major uncertainties exist regarding the rate and intensity of logging in tropical forests worldwide: these uncertainties severely limit economic, ecological, and biogeochemical analyses of these regions. Recent sawmill surveys in the Amazon region of Brazil show that the area logged is nearly equal to total area deforested annually, but conversion of survey data to forest area, forest structural damage, and biomass estimates requires multiple assumptions about logging practices. Remote sensing could provide an independent means to monitor logging activity and to estimate the biophysical consequences of this land use. Previous studies have demonstrated that the detection of logging in Amazon forests is difficult and no studies have developed either the quantitative physical basis or remote sensing approaches needed to estimate the effects of various logging regimes on forest structure. A major reason for these limitations has been a lack of sufficient, well-calibrated optical satellite data, which in turn, has impeded the development and use of physically-based, quantitative approaches for detection and structural characterization of forest logging regimes. We propose to use data from the EO-1 Hyperion imaging spectrometer to greatly increase our ability to estimate the presence and structural attributes of selective logging in the Amazon Basin. Our approach is based on four "biogeophysical indicators" not yet derived simultaneously from any satellite sensor: 1) green canopy leaf area index; 2) degree of shadowing; 3) presence of exposed soil and; 4) non-photosynthetic vegetation material. Airborne, field and modeling studies have shown that the optical reflectance continuum (400-2500 nm) contains sufficient information to derive estimates of each of these indicators. Our ongoing studies in the eastern Amazon basin also suggest that these four indicators are sensitive to logging intensity. Satellite-based estimates of these indicators should provide a means to quantify both the presence and degree of structural disturbance caused by various logging regimes. Our quantitative assessment of Hyperion hyperspectral and ALI multi-spectral data for the detection and structural characterization of selective logging in Amazonia will benefit from data collected through an ongoing project run by the Tropical Forest Foundation, within which we have developed a study of the canopy and landscape biophysics of conventional and reduced-impact logging. We will add to our base of forest structural information in concert with an EO-1 overpass. Using a photon transport model inversion technique that accounts for non-linear mixing of the four biogeophysical indicators, we will estimate these parameters across a gradient of selective logging intensity provided by conventional and reduced impact logging sites. We will also compare our physical ly-based approach to both conventional (e.g., NDVI) and novel (e.g., SWIR-channel) vegetation indices as well as to linear mixture modeling methods. We will cross-compare these approaches using Hyperion and ALI imagers to determine the strengths and limitations of these two sensors for applications of forest biophysics. This effort will yield the first physical ly-based, quantitative analysis of the detection and intensity of selective logging in Amazonia, comparing hyperspectral and improved multi-spectral approaches as well as inverse modeling, linear mixture modeling, and vegetation index techniques.
Asner, Gregory P.↗
Characterization of Terrestrial Water Dynamics in the Congo Basin Using GRACE and Satellite Radar Altimetry
The Congo Basin is the world's third largest in size (approx.3.7 million sq km), and second only to the Amazon River in discharge (approx.40,200 cu m/s annual average). However, the hydrological dynamics of seasonally flooded wetlands and floodplains remains poorly quantified. Here, we separate the Congo wetland into four 3deg 3deg regions, and use remote sensing measurements (i.e., GRACE, satellite radar altimeter, GPCP, JERS-1, SRTM, and MODIS) to estimate the amounts of water filling and draining from the Congo wetland, and to determine the source of the water. We find that the amount of water annually filling and draining the Congo wetlands is 111 cu km, which is about one-third the size of the water volumes found on the mainstem Amazon floodplain. Based on amplitude comparisons among the water volume changes and timing comparisons among their fluxes, we conclude that the local upland runoff is the main source of the Congo wetland water, not the fluvial process of river-floodplain water exchange as in the Amazon. Our hydraulic analysis using altimeter measurements also supports our conclusion by demonstrating that water surface elevations in the wetlands are consistently higher than the adjacent river water levels. Our research highlights differences in the hydrology and hydrodynamics between the Congo wetland and the mainstem Amazon floodplain.
Lee, Hyongki↗
Characterization of Terrestrial Water Dynamics in the Congo Basin Using GRACE and Satellite Radar Altimetry
The Congo Basin is the world's third largest in size (approximately 3.7 million km^2), and second only to the Amazon River in discharge (approximately 40,200 cms annual average). However, the hydrological dynamics of seasonally flooded wetlands and floodplains remains poorly quantified. Here, we separate the Congo wetland into four 3 degree x 3 degree regions, and use remote sensing measurements (i.e., GRACE, satellite radar altimeter, GPCP, JERS-1, SRTM, and MODIS) to estimate the amounts of water filling and draining from the Congo wetland, and to determine the source of the water. We find that the amount of water annually filling and draining the Congo wetlands is 111 km^3, which is about one-third the size of the water volumes found on the mainstem Amazon floodplain. Based on amplitude comparisons among the water volume changes and timing comparisons among their fluxes, we conclude that the local upland runoff is the main source of the Congo wetland water, not the fluvial process of river-floodplain water exchange as in the Amazon. Our hydraulic analysis using altimeter measurements also supports our conclusion by demonstrating that water surface elevations in the wetlands are consistently higher than the adjacent river water levels. Our research also highlights differences in the hydrology and hydrodynamics between the Congo wetland and the mainstem Amazon floodplain.
Lee, Lyongki↗
Forest Carbon Emissions from Cropland Expansion in the Brazilian Cerrado Biome
Land use, land use change, and forestry accounted for two-thirds of Brazil's greenhouse gas emissions profile in 2005. Amazon deforestation has declined by more than 80% over the past decade, yet Brazil's forests extend beyond the Amazon biome. Rapid expansion of cropland in the neighboring Cerrado biome has the potential to undermine climate mitigation efforts if emissions from dry forest and woodland conversion negate some of the benefits of avoided Amazon deforestation. Here, we used satellite data on cropland expansion, forest cover, and vegetation carbon stocks to estimate annual gross forest carbon emissions from cropland expansion in the Cerrado biome. Nearly half of the Cerrado met Brazil's definition of forest cover in 2000 (greater than or equal to 0.5 ha with greater than or equal to 10% canopy cover). In areas of established crop production, conversion of both forest and non-forest Cerrado formations for cropland declined during 2003-2013. However, forest carbon emissions from cropland expansion increased over the past decade in Matopiba, a new frontier of agricultural production that includes portions of Maranhao, Tocantins, Piau, and Bahia states. Gross carbon emissions from cropland expansion in the Cerrado averaged 16.28 Tg C yr (exp -1) between 2003 and 2013, with forest-to-cropland conversion accounting for 29% of emissions. The fraction of forest carbon emissions from Matopiba was much higher; between 2010-2013, large-scale cropland conversion in Matopiba contributed 45% of total Cerrado forest carbon emissions. Carbon emissions from Cerrado-tocropland transitions offset 5-7% of the avoided emissions from reduced Amazon deforestation rates during 2011-2013. Comprehensive national estimates of forest carbon fluxes, including all biomes, are critical to detect cross-biome leakage within countries and achieve climate mitigation targets to reduce emissions from land use, land use change, and forestry.
remote sensing↗
The gathering firestorm in southern Amazonia
Wildfires, exacerbated by extreme weather events and land use, threaten to change the Amazon from a net carbon sink to a net carbon source. Here, we develop and apply a coupled ecosystem-fire model to quantify how greenhouse gas–driven drying and warming would affect wildfires and associated CO2 emissions in the southern Brazilian Amazon. Regional climate projections suggest that Amazon fire regimes will intensify under both low- and high-emission scenarios. Our results indicate that projected climatic changes will double the area burned by wildfires, affecting up to 16% of the region’s forests by 2050. Although these fires could emit as much as 17.0 Pg of CO2 equivalent to the atmosphere, avoiding new deforestation could cut total net fire emissions in half and help prevent fires from escaping into protected areas and indigenous lands. Aggressive efforts to eliminate ignition sources and suppress wildfires will be critical to conserve southern Amazon forests.
P. M. Brando↗