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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

A Flexible and Generic Functional Mock-up Unit Based Threat Injection Framework for Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings: A Case Study in Modelica

Grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) have been considered as an important asset to support the power grid reliability by utilizing the demand flexibility offered by GEBs. GEBs are enabled by advances in sensors and controls, and the communication between building equipment, whole buildings, and the grid. The integration of different building technologies and network-based communication system makes GEBs vulnerable to passive threats such as equipment failure and active threats such as cyber-attacks. Modeling and simulation is an effective way to evaluate the impact of threats on the system performance. This paper proposes a generic and flexible threat injection framework for commonly-used building energy simulators such as EnergyPlus and Modelica to support threat modeling and evaluation. This framework leverages functional mock-up unit (FMU) to develop a general modeling interface for threat injection and simulation. A numerical case study using Modelica as a building energy simulator is conducted to demonstrate the capability of the framework for supporting single/multiple-order threat modeling and simulation of a GEB. Four threats and their combinations are injected on a Modelica-based threat-free building energy and control system, including operating supply fan at its full speed, remotely cycling the chiller on and off, blocking the chiller from receiving the chilled water supply temperature setpoints, and hijacking the global zone air temperature setpoint. Simulation results show that the cyber-attack that leads to short-term signal blocking has small effects on the system operation due to the "self-healing" feature of the heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) interactive control system. The threat that takes control of resetting the global zone air temperature setpoints has the most adverse impact on the system energy use, peak power demand, thermal comfort and the provision of demand flexibility. The combination of four threats have aggregative effects on the system but the effects are less than the additive effects of the individual threat.

Fu, Yanyang↗

DOE OSTI2023

Sea ice heat and mass balance measurements from four autonomous buoys during the MOSAiC drift campaign

As part of the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC), four autonomous seasonal ice mass balance buoys were deployed in first- and second-year ice. These buoys measured position, barometric pressure, snow depth, ice thickness, ice growth, surface melt, bottom melt, and vertical profiles of temperature from the air, through the snow and ice, and into the upper ocean. Observed air temperatures were similar at all four sites; however, snow–ice interface temperatures varied by as much as 10°C, primarily due to differences in snow depth. Observed winter ice growth rates (November to May) were <1 cm day -1 , with summer melt rates (June to July) as large as 5 cm day -1 . Air temperatures changed as much as 2°C hour -1 but were dampened to <0.3°C hour -1 at the snow–ice interface. Initial October ice thicknesses ranged from 0.3 m in first-year ice to 1.2 m in second-year ice. By February, this range was only 1.20–1.46 m, due in part to differences in the onset of basal freezing. In second-year ice, this delay was due to large brine-filled voids in the ice; propagating the cold front through this ice required freezing the brine. Mass balance results were similar to those measured by autonomous buoys deployed at the North Pole from 2000 to 2013. Winter average estimates of the ocean heat flux ranged from 0 to 3 W m -2 , with a large increase in June 2020 as the floe moved into warmer water. Estimates of average snow thermal conductivity measured at two buoys during periods of linear temperature profiles were 0.41 and 0.42 W m -1 °C -1 , higher than previously published estimates. Results from these ice mass balance buoys can contribute to efforts to close the MOSAiC heat budget.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1946

Effect of Fuel Composition, Engine Operating Variables, and Spark-Plug Type and Condition on Preignition-Limited Performance of an R-2800 Cylinder

The preignition characteristics of the R-2800 cylinder, as effected by fuel consumption, engine operating variables, and spark plug type and condition, were evaluated. The effects on preignition-limited performance of various percentages of aromatics (benzene, toluene, cumene, xylene) in a base fuel of triptane were investigated. Two paraffins (triptane and S + 6.0 ml TEL/gal) and two refinery blends (28-R and 33-R) were preignition rated. The effect of changes in the following engine operating variables on preignition limit was determined: inlet-air temperature, rear spark plug gasket temperature, engine speed, spark advance, tappet clearance, and oil consumption. Preignition limits of the R-2800 cylinder using Champion C34S and C35S and AC-LS86, LS87, and LS88 spark plugs were established and the effect of spark plug deterioration was investigated. No definite trends in preignition-limited indicated mean effective pressure were indicated for aromatics as a class when increased percentages of different aromatics were added to a base fuel of triptane. Three types of fuel (aromatics, paraffins, and refinery blends) showed a preignition range for this cylinder from 65 to 104 percent when based on the performance of S plus 6.0 ml TEL per gallon as 100 percent. The R-2800 cylinder is therefore relatively insensitive to fuel composition when compared to a CFR F-4 engine, which had a pre-ignition range from 72 to 100 percent for the same fuels. Six engine operating variables were investigated with the following results: preignition-limited indicated mean effective pressure decreased, with increases in engine speed, rear spark plug gasket temperature, inlet-air temperature, and spark advance beyond 20 F B.T.C. and was unaffected by rate of oil consumption or by tappet clearance. Spark plugs were rated over a range of preignition-limited indicated mean effective pressure from 200 to 390 pounds per square inch at a fuel-air ratio of 0.07 in the following order of increased resistance to preignition: AC-LS97, AC-LS88, Champion C358, AC-LS86, and Champion C34S. Spark plug deterioration in the form of cracks in the porcelain had been broken away from the center electrode and were retained in the spark plug cavity, the preignition limit was decreased as much as 57 percent. When the broken pieces had been removed, the preignition limit increased from that of the undamaged porcelain as the weight of removed porcelain was increased.

Pfender, John F.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Effectiveness of the Space Shuttle anti-exposure system in a cold water environment

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the NASA Space Shuttle launch entry suit (LES) and raft for 24 h of protection against cold water immersion. Two configurations, the LES and the LES with raft (LES/r) were evaluated for antiexposure protection. Conditions were selected to simulate worst-case water and air temperatures along projected Space Shuttle ground tracks; i.e., water temperatures = 4.4 C, air temperature = 5.6 C, 1-foot waves (chop), and constant spray. Four males 31-44 years of age and one 32-year-old female were studied once in each configuration. Trials with and without a raft were scheduled for up to 24 and 6 h, respectively. Mean LES trial durations were 150 + or - 9 min and final rectal temperature (FRT) = 36.5 + or - 0.3 C. Mean LES/r trial durations were 398 + or - 126 min and FRT = 35.6 + or - 0.4 C. LES and LES/r trials were terminated for reaching FRT = 35.0 C or subject-requested termination due to discomfort. The longest LES and LES/r trials were terminated due to subject discomfort. Although not achieving the desired durations, the LES and LES/r did prove capable of protecting individuals, respectively, for up to 3 and 13.5 h. Since the longest runs were terminated due to subjective tolerance, actual survival times greater than 3 and 13.5 h could be expected.

Bagian, James P.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Rate constants for chemical reactions in high-temperature nonequilibrium air

In the nonequilibrium atmospheric chemistry regime that will be encountered by the proposed Aeroassisted Orbital Transfer Vehicle in the upper atmosphere, where air density is too low for thermal and chemical equilibrium to be maintained, the detailed high temperature air chemistry plays a critical role in defining radiative and convective heating loads. Although vibrational and electronic temperatures remain low (less than 15,000 K), rotational and translational temperatures may reach 50,000 K. Attention is presently given to the effects of multiple temperatures on the magnitudes of various chemical reaction rate constants, for the cases of both bimolecular exchange reactions and collisional excitation and dissociation reactions.

Jaffe, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Local Versus Remote Contributions of Soil Moisture to Near-Surface Temperature Variability

Soil moisture variations have a straightforward impact on overlying air temperatures, wetter soils can induce higher evaporative cooling of the soil and thus, locally, cooler temperatures overall. Not known, however, is the degree to which soil moisture variations can affect remote air temperatures through their impact on the atmospheric circulation. In this talk we describe a two-pronged analysis that addresses this question. In the first segment, an extensive ensemble of NASA/GSFC GEOS-5 atmospheric model simulations is analyzed statistically to isolate and quantify the contributions of various soil moisture states, both local and remote, to the variability of air temperature at a given local site. In the second segment, the relevance of the derived statistical relationships is evaluated by applying them to observations-based data. Results from the second segment suggest that the GEOS-5-based relationships do, at least to first order, hold in nature and thus may provide some skill to forecasts of air temperature at subseasonal time scales, at least in certain regions.

Koster, R.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Ultra-lean combustion at high inlet temperatures

Combustion at inlet-air temperatures of 1100 to 1250 K was studied for application to advanced automotive gas turbine engines. Combustion was initiated by the hot environment, and therefore no external ignition source was used. Combustion was stabilized without a flameholder. The tests were performed in a 12-cm-diameter test section at a pressure of 250,000 Pa, with reference velocities of 32 to 60 m/s and at maximum combustion temperatures of 1350 to 1850 K. Number 2 diesel fuel was injected by means of a multiple-source fuel injector. Unburned hydrocarbon emissions were negligible for all test conditions. Nitrogen oxide emissions were less than 1.9 g NO2/kg fuel for combustion temperatures below 1680 K. Carbon monoxide emissions were less than 16 g CO/kg fuel for combustion temperatures greater than 1600 K, inlet-air temperatures higher than 1150 K, and residence times greater than 4.3 ms.

Anderson, D. N.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Utilization of Satellite Data in Land Surface Hydrology: Sensitivity and Assimilation

This paper investigates the sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration to input meteorological variables, viz- surface air temperature and surface vapor pressure. The sensitivity studies have been carried out for a wide range of land surface variables such as wind speed, leaf area index and surface temperatures. Errors in the surface air temperature and surface vapor pressure result in errors of different signs in the computed potential evapotranspiration. This result has implications for use of estimated values from satellite data or analysis of surface air temperature and surface vapor pressure in large scale hydrological modeling. The comparison of cumulative potential evapotranspiration estimates using ground observations and satellite observations over Manhattan, Kansas for a period of several months shows very little difference between the two. The cumulative differences between the ground based and satellite based estimates of potential evapotranspiration amounted to less that 20mm over a 18 month period and a percentage difference of 15%. The use of satellite estimates of surface skin temperature in hydrological modeling to update the soil moisture using a physical adjustment concept is studied in detail including the extent of changes in soil moisture resulting from the assimilation of surface skin temperature. The soil moisture of the surface layer is adjusted by 0.9mm over a 10 day period as a result of a 3K difference between the predicted and the observed surface temperature. This is a considerable amount given the fact that the top layer can hold only 5mm of water.

Lakshmi, Venkataraman↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development of a multi-layer canopy model for E3SM Land Model with support for heterogeneous computing

The vertical structure of vegetation canopies creates micro-climates. However, the land components of most Earth System Models, including the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), typically neglect vertical canopy structure by using a single layer big-leaf representation to simulate water, CO 2 , and energy exchanges between the land and the atmosphere. In this study, we developed a Multi-Layer Canopy Model for the E3SM Land Model to resolve the micro-climate created by vegetation canopies. The model developed in this study re-implements the CLM-ml_v1 to support heterogeneous computing architectures consisting of CPUs and GPUs and includes three additional optimization-based stomatal conductance models. The use of Portable, Extensible Toolkit for Scientific Computation provides a speedup of 25–50 times on a GPU relative to a CPU. The numerical implementation of the model was verified against CLM-ml_v1 for a month-long simulation using data from the Ameriflux US-University of Michigan Biological Station site. Model structural uncertainty was explored by performing control simulations for five stomatal conductance models that exclude and include the control of plant hydrodynamics (PHD) on photosynthesis. The bias in simulated sensible and latent heat fluxes was lower when PHD was accounted for in the model. Additionally, six idealized simulations were performed to study the impact of three environmental variables (i.e. air temperature, atmospheric CO 2 , and soil moisture) on canopy processes (i.e. net CO 2 assimilation, leaf temperature, and leaf water potential). Increasing air temperature reduced net CO 2 assimilation and increased air temperature. Net CO 2 assimilation increased at higher atmospheric CO 2 , while decreasing soil moisture resulted in lower leaf water potential.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Icing Physics Studies Using the 3D SIDRM Test Article: Aerodynamic and Supercooled Liquid Icing Analysis

In-flight icing is an important safety issue and is a factor that affects aircraft design and performance. Newer regulations are driving a need for improvements in airframe and engine icing simulation capability. Experimental data is required for development of icing physics models and simulation validation. To that end, this paper presents the analysis of the supercooled liquid icing data subset from tests conducted in 2022 at the NASA Icing Research Tunnel that studied both supercooled water and ice-crystal icing. The test article that was utilized replicated 3D geometrical features of an inter-compressor duct and strut region of a turbofan engine. The surfaces of the Simulated Inter-compressor Duct Research Model (SIDRM) can be heated to simulate the warm surfaces of the turbofan inter-compressor duct. The test article is instrumented with pressure taps, heaters, heat flux gauges, and thermocouples, while a 3D laser scanner, cameras, and a scale to measure ice mass were utilized to characterize the icing behavior. The aim of these tests was to generate ice accretions on the SIDRM test article under well-characterized supercooled liquid icing and ice crystal icing conditions. This paper discusses measurements related to aerodynamic testing and supercooled liquid icing tests that were conducted. Aerodynamic measurements were analyzed and compared to computational simulations and were found to be in good agreement for the range of airspeeds (50 to 230 knots) and angles of attack (0 to 4°) tested. Various parametric sweeps were conducted during the supercooled liquid icing portion of the test entry (cloud median volumetric diameter ranged from 15 to 90 µm, total air temperature from -3 to -17 °C, angle of attack from 0 to 4°, and accretion time from 5 to 20 min). These sweeps were performed to measure that parameter’s impact on ice accretion size, location (icing extent), characteristics (such as glaze/rime ice and shedding behavior), and test article surface temperature. Analysis of the test data showed that clouds composed of larger drops, colder air temperatures, smaller angles of attack, and longer spray times were the primary parameters that resulted in accretions with greater ice mass. Test article angle of attack and cloud droplet size influenced the location of ice accretion as these two parameters directly impact collection efficiency. With respect to icing characteristics, total air temperature dictated icing type, and smaller cloud drop size along with warmer air temperatures resulted in greater amounts of ice shedding. Surface temperature increased during ice accretion from the release of latent (fusion) heat, where total air temperature and cloud drop size impacted the amount of surface temperature change. The icing measurements collected during the SIDRM tests will be used to develop and validate 3D computational engine icing tools, such as GlennICE, that predictively assesses the onset and growth of ice. One of the goals of the sponsoring NASA project is to develop simulation models and tools that can assist in the design and certification of engines for flight in icing conditions in a cost effective way.

supercooled liquid icing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Icing Physics Studies Using the 3D SIDRM Test Article: Aerodynamic and Supercooled Liquid Icing Analysis

In-flight icing is an important safety issue and is a factor that affects aircraft design and performance. Newer regulations are driving a need for improvements in airframe and engine icing simulation capability. Experimental data is required for development of icing physics models and simulation validation. To that end, this paper discusses analyzed data from icing tests conducted with a 3D test article in 2022 at the NASA Icing Research Tunnel. The test article, whose geometry is representative of an inter-compressor duct and strut region of a turbofan engine, has been designed and constructed to study the physics of supercooled water icing and ice crystal icing. The surfaces of the Simulated Inter-compressor Duct Research Model (SIDRM) can be heated to simulate the warm surfaces of the turbofan inter-compressor duct. The test article is instrumented with pressure taps, heaters, heat flux gauges, and thermocouples, while a 3D laser scanner, cameras, and a scale to measure ice mass were utilized to characterize the icing behavior. The aim of these tests was to generate ice accretions on the SIDRM test article under well-characterized supercooled liquid icing and ice crystal icing conditions. This paper discusses measurements related to aerodynamic tests and supercooled liquid icing tests that were conducted. Aerodynamic measurements were analyzed and compared to computational simulations and were found to be in good agreement for the range of airspeeds (50 to 230 knots) and angles of attack (0 to 4°) tested. Various parametric sweeps were conducted during the supercooled liquid icing portion of the test entry (cloud median volumetric diameter ranged from 15 to 90 µm, total air temperature from -3 to -17 °C, angle of attack from 0 to 4°, and accretion time from 5 to 20 min). These sweeps were performed to measure that parameter’s impact on ice accretion size, location, characteristics (such as glaze/rime ice and shedding behavior), and test article surface temperature. Analysis of the test data showed that clouds composed of larger drops, colder air temperatures, smaller angles of attack, and longer spray times were the primary parameters that resulted in accretions with greater ice mass. Test article angle of attack and cloud droplet size influenced the location of ice accretion as these two parameters directly impact collection efficiency. With respect to icing characteristics, total air temperature dictated icing type, and smaller cloud drop size along with warmer air temperatures resulted in greater amounts of ice shedding. Surface temperature increased during ice accretion from the release of latent (fusion) heat, where total air temperature and cloud drop size impacted the amount of surface temperature change. The icing measurements collected during the SIDRM tests will be used to develop and validate 3D computational engine icing tools, such as GlennICE, that predictively assesses the onset and growth of ice. One of the goals of the sponsoring NASA project is to develop simulation models and tools that can assist in the design and certification of engines for flight in icing conditions in a cost‑effective way.

supercooled liquid icing↗

DOE OSTI2023

Citizen and machine learning-aided high-resolution mapping of urban heat exposure and stress

Abstract Through conversion of land cover to more built-up, impervious surfaces, cities create hotter environments than their surroundings for urban residents, with large differences expected between different parts of the city. Existing measurements of ambient air temperature and heat stress, however, are often insufficient to capture the intra-urban variability in heat exposure. This study provides a replicable method for modeling air temperature, humidity, and moist heat stress over the urban area of Chapel Hill while engaging citizens to collect high-temporal and spatially-resolved air temperature and humidity measurements. We use low-cost, consumer-grade sensors combined with satellite remote sensing data and machine learning to map urban air temperature and relative humidity over various land-cover classes to understand intra-urban spatial variability of ambient heat exposure at a relatively high resolution (10 m). Our findings show that individuals may be exposed to higher levels of air temperature and moist heat stress than weather station data suggest, and that the ambient heat exposure varies according to land cover type, with tree-covered land the coolest and built-up areas the warmest, and time of day, with higher air temperatures observed during the early afternoon. Combining our resulting dataset with sociodemographic data, policymakers and urban planners in Chapel Hill can use data output from this method to identify areas exposed to high temperature and moist heat stress as a first step to design effective mitigation measures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1999

Effect of Elevated Atmospheric CO2 and Temperature on Leaf Optical Properties and Chlorophyll Content in Acer saccharum (Marsh.)

Elevated atmospheric CO2 pressure and numerous causes of plant stress often result in decreased leaf chlorophyll contents and thus would be expected to alter leaf optical properties. Hypotheses that elevated carbon dioxide pressure and air temperature would alter leaf optical properties were tested for sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) in the middle of its fourth growing season under treatment. The saplings had been growing since 1994 in open-top chambers at Oak Ridge, Tennessee under the following treatments: 1) Ambient CO2 pressure and air temperature (control); 2) CO2 pressure approximately 30 Pa above ambient; 3) Air temperatures 3 C above ambient; 4) Elevated CO2 and air temperature. Spectral reflectance, transmittance, and absorptance in the visible spectrum (400-720 nm) did not change significantly (rho = 0.05) in response to any treatment compared with control values. Although reflectance, transmittance, and absorptance at 700 nm correlated strongly with leaf chlorophyll content, chlorophyll content was not altered significantly by the treatments. The lack of treatment effects on pigmentation explained the non-significant change in optical properties in the visible spectrum. Optical properties in the near-infrared (721-850 nm) were similarly unresponsive to treatment with the exception of an increased absorptance in leaves that developed under elevated air temperature alone. This response could not be explained by the data, but might have resulted from effects of air temperature on leaf internal structure. Results indicated no significant potential for detecting leaf optical responses to elevated CO2 or temperature by the remote sensing of reflected radiation in the 400-850 nm spectrum.

Carter, Gregory A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Field Study of 120-volt Heat Pump Water Heaters in the Big Easy

To meet long-term goals for reducing carbon emissions and lessen the impacts of climate change, the U.S. plans to decarbonize its building stock, which includes the replacement of fossil fuel-burning end uses with energy efficient electric alternatives. As part of this strategy, the replacement of fossil fuel water heaters with heat pump water heaters (HPWH) has the potential to avoid substantial carbon emissions. An estimated 10-15 million single-family homes with fossil fuel water heaters do not have the electrical panel capacity to install a 240-volt, 30-amp HPWH. For these homes, a technology recently introduced to the market, the 120-volt plug-in HPWH, can provide energy efficient electrification of water heating without an expensive panel and wiring retrofit. This paper presents the results of an ongoing 120-volt HPWH field study conducted in 17 homes in New Orleans, LA. Key installation scenarios are profiled for retrofitting from gas-fired water heaters to 120-volt HPWHs, accounting for space, air volume, air temperature, condensate drainage, and electrical. Each HPWH had its surrounding air temperature, relative humidity, inlet and outlet water temperature, flow, and energy consumption monitored. Using these data, hot water delivery and energy efficiency performance were analyzed based on home characteristics. Hot water run outs were investigated to understand how hot water usage, inlet water temperature, and surrounding air temperature impact the HPWH’s ability to meet load. From these results, best practices for 120-volt HPWH siting, sizing, and installation were developed. In addition, results are explored further to add insight for electrification policies and product development.

heat pump water heater, 120-volt, Residential buil↗

NASA NTRS1979

Inflight fuel tank temperature survey data

Statistical summaries of the fuel and air temperature data for twelve different routes and for different aircraft models (B747, B707, DC-10 and DC-8), are given. The minimum fuel, total air and static air temperature expected for a 0.3% probability were summarized in table form. Minimum fuel temperature extremes agreed with calculated predictions and the minimum fuel temperature did not necessarily equal the minimum total air temperature even for extreme weather, long range flights.

Pasion, A. J.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Lower Urban Humidity Moderates Outdoor Heat Stress

Abstract Surface temperature is often used to examine heat exposure in multi‐city studies and for informing urban heat mitigation efforts due to scarcity of urban air temperature measurements. Cities also have lower relative humidity, traditionally not accounted for in large‐scale observational urban heat risk assessments. Here, using crowdsourced measurements from over 40,000 weather stations in ≈600 urban clusters in Europe, we show the moderating effect of this urbanization‐induced humidity reduction on outdoor heat stress during the 2019 heatwave. We demonstrate that daytime differences in heat index between urban clusters and their surroundings are weak, and associations of this urban‐rural difference with background climate, generally examined from the surface temperature perspective, are diminished due to moisture feedbacks. We also examine the spatial variability of surface temperature, air temperature, and heat index within these clusters—relevant for detecting hotspots and potential disparities in heat exposure—and find that surface temperature is a poor proxy for the intra‐urban distribution of heat index during daytime. Finally, urban vegetation shows much weaker (∼1/6th as strong) associations with heat index than with surface temperature, which has broad implications for optimizing urban heat stress mitigation strategies. These findings are valid for operational metrics of heat stress for shaded conditions (apparent temperature and humidex), thermodynamic proxies (wet‐bulb temperature), and empirical heat indices. Based on this large‐scale empirical evidence, surface temperature, used due to the lack of better alternatives, may not be suitable for accurately informing heat mitigation strategies within and across cities, necessitating more urban‐scale observations and better urban‐resolving models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity evaluation of the Kudryavtsev permafrost model

Modeling is an important way to assess current and future permafrost spatial distribution and dynamics, especially in data poor areas like the Arctic region. Here, we evaluate a physics-based analytical model, Kudryavtsev's active layer model, which is widely used because it has relatively few data requirements. This model was recently incorporated into a component modeling toolbox, allowing for coupled modeling of permafrost and geomorphic processes over geological timescales. However, systematic quantitative assessment of the influence of its controlling parameters on permafrost temperature and active layer thickness predictions has not been undertaken before. In this work, we investigate the sensitivity of the Kudryavtsev's active layer model by Monte Carlo simulations to generate probability distributions for input parameters and compare predictions with a comprehensive benchmark dataset of in-situ permafrost observations over entire Alaska. Predicted permafrost surface temperature is highly dependent on mean annual air temperature (r = 0.78 on average), annual temperature amplitude (–0.41), and winter-averaged snow thickness (0.30). Uncertainty of predicted permafrost temperature is relatively small (RMSE = 1 °C), when air temperature and snow depth are well constrained. Similarly, RMSE between simulated and observed ALT at stations is ~0.08 m. However, under given air temperature and snow conditions, soil water content bias can significantly affect modeled active layer thickness (RMSE = 0.1 m or 40% of the observed active layer thickness). If soil water content has a large bias, improvements in other parameters may not significantly improve the active layer predictions of the Kudryavtsev's model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Prediction of annual soil respiration from its flux at mean annual temperature

Accurately scaling soil respiration (SR, the soil-to-atmosphere flow of CO2) across time and space is important to constrain and understand ecosystem to global scale SR, a major terrestrial carbon flux to the atmosphere. Year-round SR measurements are however expensive and sometimes impossible to perform. Bahn et al. (2010) developed an approach to estimate annual SR (SRannual) from the flux measured at mean soil temperature (SRMAST), but the robustness of this approach needs to be evaluated in diverse ecosystem types and climatic conditions globally. We used a global soil respiration database (SRDB-V4, with 823 SR observations worldwide) to test the capability of SRMAST to predict SRannual. SRMAST estimated using a variety of methods all showed clear relationships with annual SRannual. Two single-rate methods (i.e., using the single SR rate most close to mean annual soil temperature, or the single SR rate most close to mean annual air temperature) showed the most pronounced divergence from the true SRannual, but errors significantly decreased when using multiple SR rates within 1 ? of the mean annual soil temperature to estimate SRMAST. SRannual was most closely correlated with SRMAST estimated via a Q10 relationship, but this method has a potential autocorrelation issue that we explore and discuss. Air temperature data are much more widely available than is soil temperature, and we found that SR at mean annual air temperature (SRMAAT) can be used to predict SRannual as well. This study builds on Bahn et al. (2010) to demonstrate that SR measured at both annual mean soil and air temperature can be used to predict annual SR, with well-quantified errors. This capability could be used to reduce SR measurement frequency required for estimating SRannual and greatly decrease cost, factors that are generally important but especially in lower-income countries and cold, inaccessible regions.

Soil respiration, temperature, modeling↗