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At least 235 records · Page 13

Wildfire-Power Grid Interactions: Feedback, Impacts, Monitoring, Modeling, and Mitigation Strategies

Wildfires are increasingly interacting with electric power systems through a two-way hazard chain: fires damage grid assets and trigger cascading outages, while grid faults can ignite new fires under hot, dry, and windy conditions. This review synthesizes the state of knowledge across five domains: (i) physical impacts of flames, heat, and smoke on lines, towers, insulators, and substations; (ii) power-infrastructure-initiated ignitions via conductor clash, high-impedance faults, and corona discharge; (iii) widespread blackouts and disproportionate societal impacts; (iv) multi-scale monitoring spanning laboratory tests, in-situ and grid-integrated sensors, and Earth observation; (v) coupled modeling that links fire behavior with grid operations; and (vi) technological and strategic mitigation pathways spanning prevention, response, and recovery. We integrate these domains into a novel 'feedback-aware' socio-technical framework. Through a longitudinal analysis (2005-2025) of global incidents, we identify that while vegetation contact remains the most frequent ignition source, aging infrastructure failure has emerged as a critical driver of catastrophic 'mega-fires'. We further identify persistent gaps, including limited interoperability of high-frequency grid and environmental data, scarce real-time data assimilation, and under-developed equity metrics for outage management. We conclude by outlining a research agenda to (1) deploy interoperable sensing architectures, (2) advance feedback-coupled fire-grid simulations, and (3) evaluate mitigation portfolios through techno-economic and fairness lenses. Recognizing wildfire-grid interactions as coupled socio-technical systems is essential for protecting infrastructure and communities and for ensuring reliable, sustainable electricity in a changing world.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A variational encoder–decoder approach to precise spectroscopic age estimation for large Galactic surveys

Constraints on the formation and evolution of the Milky Way Galaxy require multidimensional measurements of kinematics, abundances, and ages for a large population of stars. Ages for luminous giants, which can be seen to large distances, are an essential component of studies of the Milky Way, but they are traditionally very difficult to estimate precisely for a large data set and often require careful analysis on a star-by-star basis in asteroseismology. Because spectra are easier to obtain for large samples, being able to determine precise ages from spectra allows for large age samples to be constructed, but spectroscopic ages are often imprecise and contaminated by abundance correlations. Here we present an application of a variational encoder–decoder on cross-domain astronomical data to solve these issues. The model is trained on pairs of observations from APOGEE and Kepler of the same star in order to reduce the dimensionality of the APOGEE spectra in a latent space while removing abundance information. The low dimensional latent representation of these spectra can then be trained to predict age with just ∼1000 precise seismic ages. We demonstrate that this model produces more precise spectroscopic ages (∼ 22 per cent overall, ∼ 11 per cent for red-clump stars) than previous data-driven spectroscopic ages while being less contaminated by abundance information (in particular, our ages do not depend on [α/M]). We create a public age catalogue for the APOGEE DR17 data set and use it to map the age distribution and the age-[Fe/H]-[α/M] distribution across the radial range of the Galactic disc.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DeepCare: Improving Patient Care using Deep Learning on Electronic Health Records

Coordinating patient care using electronic health records (EHR) data presents an exciting but formidable opportunity in data extraction, analysis and modeling. Traditional methods use a manual feature driven approach to model patients with age, family history and symptoms to predict disease outcomes. We propose a novel approach to model patients based on their streaming electronic health records data combined with information from medical knowledge bases, which has been gained over years of medical research. Using a combination of representation learning and long short term memory (LSTM) networks we plan to model patient evolution over time, leading to more accurate and individualized predictive models for patient’s diseases. Our approach will be transformative in providing critical decision support for patient care, enabling accurate understanding and evolution of diseases in patients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Quantitative Proteomic Analysis of the Senescence-Associated Secretory Phenotype by Data-Independent Acquisition

Cellular senescence is a complex stress response that induces an essentially permanent cell cycle arrest and a complex secretory phenotype termed the senescence-associated secretory phenotype (SASP), which drives numerous aging pathologies. Characterization of the SASP can provide insights into aging and disease mechanisms, aging biomarker candidates, and targets for counteracting the deleterious effects of senescent cells. Here we describe a mass spectrometry (MS)-compatible protocol to (1) generate senescent cells using different stimuli, (2) collect conditioned medium containing proteins secreted by senescent cells (i.e., SASP), and (3) prepare the SASP for quantitative proteomic analysis using data-independent acquisition (DIA) MS. Basic Protocol 1: Generating ionizing radiation-induced senescent and control cells Alternate Protocol 1: Generating doxorubicin-induced senescent and control cells Alternate Protocol 2: Generating oncogenic RAS-induced senescent and control cells Alternate Protocol 3: Generating mitochondrial dysfunction-induced senescent and control cells Alternate Protocol 4: Generating atazanavir/ritonavir-induced senescent and control cells Support Protocol: A multiple-assay approach to confirm the phenotype of senescent cells Basic Protocol 2: Generating conditioned medium from senescent cells cultured in low serum and quiescent control cells Alternate Protocol 5: Generating conditioned medium from senescent cells cultured in complete medium and quiescent control cells Basic Protocol 3: Quantitative proteomic analysis of the SASP.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Radiochronometric analysis of an historic Cs-137 activity standard

In this work, a 137 Cs activity standard discovered during routine inventory was analyzed to determine its model age using radiochronometry. The aqueous activity standard was separated using an established separation method that employs commercially available Sr resin. The method was also tested against a nuclear forensics reference material developed specifically for benchmarking 137 Cs radiochronometry methods. Results of the analyses showed good agreement between the results and the certified values of the reference material. Analysis of the discovered activity standard were also in good agreement with the activity certification date, though uncertainty was higher due to natural Ba contaminating the sample and the stable 133 Cs used as a carrier during the standard’s production.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

New soil carbon sequestration with nitrogen enrichment: a meta-analysis

Background and aims: Through agriculture and industry, humans are increasing the deposition and availability of nitrogen (N) in ecosystems worldwide. Carbon (C) isotope tracers provide useful insights into soil C dynamics, as they allow to study soil C pools of different ages. In this study we evaluated to what extent N enrichment affects soil C dynamics in experiments that applied C isotope tracers. Methods: Using meta-analysis, we synthesized data from 35 published papers. We made a distinction between “new C” and “old C” stocks, i.e., soil C derived from plant C input since the start of the isotopic enrichment, or unlabeled, pre-existing soil C. Results: Averaged across studies, N addition increased new soil C stocks (+30.3%), total soil C stocks (+6.1%) and soil C input proxies (+30.7%). Although N addition had no overall, average, effect on old soil C stocks and old soil C respiration, old soil C stocks increased with the amount of N added and respiration of old soil C declined. Nitrogen-induced effects on new soil C and soil C input both decreased with the amount of extraneous N added in control treatments. Conclusion: Although our findings require additional confirmation from long-term field experiments, our analysis provides isotopic evidence that N addition stimulates soil C storage both by increasing soil C input and (at high N rates) by decreasing decomposition of old soil C. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the widely reported saturating response of plant growth to N enrichment also applies to new soil C storage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Flare Statistics for Young Stars from a Convolutional Neural Network Analysis of TESS Data

All-sky photometric time-series missions have allowed for the monitoring of thousands of young (t age < 800 Myr) stars in order to understand the evolution of stellar activity. In this work, we developed a convolutional neural network (CNN), stella, specifically trained to find flares in Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) short-cadence data. We applied the network to 3200 young stars in order to evaluate flare rates as a function of age and spectral type. The CNN takes a few seconds to identify flares on a single light curve. We also measured rotation periods for 1500 of our targets and find that flares of all amplitudes are present across all spot phases, suggesting high spot coverage across the entire surface. Additionally, flare rates and amplitudes decrease for stars t age > 50 Myr across all temperatures T eff ≥ 4000 K, while stars from 2300 ≤ T eff < 4000 K show no evolution across 800 Myr. Stars of T eff ≤ 4000 K also show higher flare rates and amplitudes across all ages. We investigate the effects of high flare rates on photoevaporative atmospheric mass loss for young planets. In the presence of flares, planets lose 4%–7% more atmosphere over the first 1 Gyr. stella is an open-source Python toolkit hosted on GitHub and PyPI.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

What drives the variance of galaxy spectra?

We present a study aimed at understanding the physical phenomena underlying the formation and evolution of galaxies following a data-driven analysis of spectroscopic data based on the variance in a carefully selected sample. We apply principal component analysis (PCA) independently to three subsets of continuum-subtracted optical spectra, segregated into their nebular emission activity as quiescent, star-forming, and active galactic nuclei (AGNs). We emphasize that the variance of the input data in this work only relates to the absorption lines in the photospheres of the stellar populations. The sample is taken from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) in the stellar velocity dispersion range 100–150 km s −1 , to minimize the ‘blurring’ effect of the stellar motion. We restrict the analysis to the first three principal components (PCs) and find that PCA segregates the three types with the highest variance mapping SSP-equivalent age, along with an inextricable degeneracy with metallicity, even when all three PCs are included. Spectral fitting shows that stellar age dominates PC1, whereas PC2 and PC3 have a mixed dependence of age and metallicity. The trends support – independently of any model fitting – the hypothesis of an evolutionary sequence from star formation to AGN to quiescence. As a further test of the consistency of the analysis, we apply the same methodology in different spectral windows, finding similar trends, but the variance is maximal in the blue wavelength range, roughly around the 4000 Å break.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Progress Report for a 44-month Aging Study on Nitroplasticizer (NP) Stability - Summary of DFT and FTIR Results

In the past few years, a 44-month long aging experiment was conducted under various aging conditions. The properties of aged nitroplasticizer (NP) samples were analyzed using Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, Karl Fischer (KF) titration, thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), liquid chromatography tandem quadrupole time of flight mass spectrometry (LC/QTOF), and ion chromatography (IC). In this progress report, some FTIR results are documented and discussed. On the theoretical front, density functional theory (DFT) calculations were carried out. Some DFT results are discussed as well.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Impact of Demographic Lifecycle States on Time to Vehicle Purchase: Insights from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics

This study examines the impact of demographic lifecycle stages on the timing of vehicle purchases, using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics from 1999 to 2021. Survival analysis was employed to model the duration until households purchase vehicles, incorporating key lifecycle variables such as age, employment status, marital status, childbirth, home ownership, and the presence of school-going children. The life table results indicate that early adulthood (ages 20–35) is the prime period for vehicle acquisition, with significant peaks around ages 25 to 30. Additionally, the instantaneous hazard of purchasing a vehicle is highest in the late 40s and early 50s. According to the Cox proportional hazards model, employment, marital status, and home ownership significantly increase the likelihood of purchasing a vehicle, while living in multi-unit dwellings decreases it. Interaction effects reveal that married individuals with employed spouses are substantially more likely to purchase vehicles. In conclusion, this study serves as a steppingstone toward integrating demographic lifecycle analysis into car ownership modeling that better reflects real-world scenarios and increases the accuracy of policy and strategic planning.

Car ownership↗

Identification of Novel, Replicable Genetic Risk Loci for Suicidal Thoughts and Behaviors Among US Military Veterans

Importance: Suicide is a leading cause of death; however, the molecular genetic basis of suicidal thoughts and behaviors (SITB) remains unknown. Objective: To identify novel, replicable genomic risk loci for SITB. Design, Setting, and Participants: This genome-wide association study included 633 778 US military veterans with and without SITB, as identified through electronic health records. GWAS was performed separately by ancestry, controlling for sex, age, and genetic substructure. Cross-ancestry risk loci were identified through meta-analysis. Study enrollment began in 2011 and is ongoing. Data were analyzed from November 2021 to August 2022. Main Outcome and Measures: SITB. Results: A total of 633 778 US military veterans were included in the analysis (57 152 [9%] female; 121 118 [19.1%] African ancestry, 8285 [1.3%] Asian ancestry, 452 767 [71.4%] European ancestry, and 51 608 [8.1%] Hispanic ancestry), including 121 211 individuals with SITB (19.1%). Meta-analysis identified more than 200 GWS (P < 5 × 10 -8 ) cross-ancestry risk single-nucleotide variants for SITB concentrated in 7 regions on chromosomes 2, 6, 9, 11, 14, 16, and 18. Top single-nucleotide variants were largely intronic in nature; 5 were independently replicated in ISGC, including rs6557168 in ESR1, rs12808482 in DRD2, rs77641763 in EXD3, rs10671545 in DCC, and rs36006172 in TRAF3. Associations for FBXL19 and AC018880.2 were not replicated. Gene-based analyses implicated 24 additional GWS cross-ancestry risk genes, including FURIN, TSNARE1, and the NCAM1-TTC12-ANKK1-DRD2 gene cluster. Cross-ancestry enrichment analyses revealed significant enrichment for expression in brain and pituitary tissue, synapse and ubiquitination processes, amphetamine addiction, parathyroid hormone synthesis, axon guidance, and dopaminergic pathways. Seven other unique European ancestry–specific GWS loci were identified, 2 of which (POM121L2 and METTL15/LINC02758) were replicated. Two additional GWS ancestry-specific loci were identified within the African ancestry (PET112/GATB) and Hispanic ancestry (intergenic locus on chromosome 4) subsets, both of which were replicated. Further, no GWS loci were identified within the Asian ancestry subset; however, significant enrichment was observed for axon guidance, cyclic adenosine monophosphate signaling, focal adhesion, glutamatergic synapse, and oxytocin signaling pathways across all ancestries. Within the European ancestry subset, genetic correlations (r > 0.75) were observed between the SITB phenotype and a suicide attempt-only phenotype, depression, and posttraumatic stress disorder. Additionally, polygenic risk score analyses revealed that the Million Veteran Program polygenic risk score had nominally significant main effects in 2 independent samples of veterans of European and African ancestry.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A genome-wide association study of suicide attempts in the million veterans program identifies evidence of pan-ancestry and ancestry-specific risk loci

In this study, to identify pan-ancestry and ancestry-specific loci associated with attempting suicide among veterans, we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of suicide attempts within a large, multi-ancestry cohort of U.S. veterans enrolled in the Million Veterans Program (MVP). Cases were defined as veterans with a documented history of suicide attempts in the electronic health record (EHR; N = 14,089) and controls were defined as veterans with no documented history of suicidal thoughts or behaviors in the EHR ( N = 395,064). GWAS was performed separately in each ancestry group, controlling for sex, age and genetic substructure. Pan-ancestry risk loci were identified through meta-analysis and included two genome-wide significant loci on chromosomes 20 ( p = 3.64 × 10 -9 ) and 1 ( p = 3.69 × 10 -8 ). A strong pan-ancestry signal at the Dopamine Receptor D2 locus ( p = 1.77 × 10 -7 ) was also identified and subsequently replicated in a large, independent international civilian cohort ( p = 7.97 × 10 -4 ). Additionally, ancestry-specific genome-wide significant loci were also detected in African-Americans, European-Americans, Asian-Americans, and Hispanic-Americans. Pathway analyses suggested over-representation of many biological pathways with high clinical significance, including oxytocin signaling, glutamatergic synapse, cortisol synthesis and secretion, dopaminergic synapse, and circadian rhythm. These findings confirm that the genetic architecture underlying suicide attempt risk is complex and includes both pan-ancestry and ancestry-specific risk loci. Moreover, pathway analyses suggested many commonly impacted biological pathways that could inform development of improved therapeutics for suicide prevention.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Measurements of the z > 5 Lyman-α forest flux autocorrelation functions from the extended XQR-30 data set

We present the first observational measurements of the Lyman-α (Ly α) forest flux autocorrelation functions in ten redshift bins from 5.1 ≤ z ≤ 6.0. We use a sample of 35 quasar sightlines at z > 5.7 from the extended XQR-30 data set; these data have signal-to-noise ratios of >20 per spectral pixel. We carefully account for systematic errors in continuum reconstruction, instrumentation, and contamination by damped Ly α systems. With these measurements, we introduce software tools to generate autocorrelation function measurements from any simulation. Our measurements of the smallest bin of the autocorrelation function increase with redshift when normalizing by the mean flux, $\langle{F}\rangle$. This increase may come from decreasing $\langle{F}\rangle$ or increasing mean free path of hydrogen-ionizing photons, λmfp. Recent work has shown that the autocorrelation function from simulations at z > 5 is sensitive to λmfp, a quantity that contains vital information on the ending of reionization. For an initial comparison, we show our autocorrelation measurements with simulation models for recently measured λmfp values and find good agreements. Further work in modelling and understanding the covariance matrices of the data is necessary to get robust measurements of λmfp from this data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Quantification of morphological change in materials based on image data utilizing machine learning techniques

Computed tomography (CT) resolution has become high enough to monitor morphological changes due to aging in materials in long-term applications. We explored the utility of the critic of a generative adversarial network (GAN) to automatically detect such changes. The GAN was trained with images of pristine Pharmatose, which is used as a surrogate energetic material. It is important to note that images of the material with altered morphology were only used during the test phase. The GAN-generated images visually reproduced the microstructure of Pharmatose well, although some unrealistic particle fusion was seen. Calculated morphological metrics (volume fraction, interfacial line length, and local thickness) for the synthetic images also showed good agreement with the training data, albeit with signs of mode collapse in the interfacial line length. While the critic exposed changes in particle size, it showed limited ability to distinguish images by particle shape. The detection of shape differences was also a more challenging task for the selected morphological metrics that related to energetic material performance. We further tested the critic with images of aged Pharmatose. Subtle changes due to aging are difficult for the human analyst to detect. Both critic and morphological metrics analysis showed image differentiation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Source apportionment of VOCs, IVOCs and SVOCs by positive matrix factorization in suburban Livermore, California

Abstract. Gas- and particle-phase molecular markers provide highly specific information about the sources and atmospheric processes that contribute to air pollution. In urban areas, major sources of pollution are changing as regulation selectively mitigates some pollution sources and climate change impacts the surrounding environment. In this study, a comprehensive thermal desorption aerosol gas chromatograph (cTAG) was used to measure volatile, intermediate-volatility and semivolatile molecular markers every other hour over a 10 d period from 11 to 21 April 2018 in suburban Livermore, California. Source apportionment via positive matrix factorization (PMF) was performed to identify major sources of pollution. The PMF analysis identified 13 components, including emissions from gasoline, consumer products, biomass burning, secondary oxidation, aged regional transport and several factors associated with single compounds or specific events with unique compositions. The gasoline factor had a distinct morning peak in concentration but lacked a corresponding evening peak, suggesting commute-related traffic emissions are dominated by cold starts in residential areas. More monoterpene and monoterpenoid mass was assigned to consumer product emissions than biogenic sources, underscoring the increasing importance of volatile chemical products to urban emissions. Daytime isoprene concentrations were controlled by biogenic sunlight- and temperature-dependent processes, mediated by strong midday mixing, but gasoline was found to be the dominant and likely only source of isoprene at night. Biomass burning markers indicated residential wood burning activity remained an important pollution source even in the springtime. This study demonstrates that specific high-time-resolution molecular marker measurements across a wide range of volatility enable more comprehensive pollution source profiles than a narrower volatility range would allow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hazard analysis for identifying common cause failures of digital safety systems using a redundancy-guided systems-theoretic approach

Replacing the existing aging analog instrumentation and control (I&C) systems with modern safety control and protection, digital technology offers one of the foremost means of performance improvements and cost reductions for the existing nuclear power plants (NPPs). However, the qualification of digital I&C systems remains a challenge, especially considering the issue of software common-cause failures (CCFs), which are difficult to address. With the application and upgrades of advanced digital I&C systems, software CCFs have become a potential threat to plant safety because most redundant designs use similar digital platforms or software in the operating and application systems. With complex designs of multilayer redundancy to meet the single-failure criterion, digital I&C safety systems (e.g., engineered safety-features actuation system [ESFAS]) are of a particular concern in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensing procedures. Here, this paper applies a modularized approach to conduct redundancy-guided systems-theoretic hazard analysis for an advanced digital ESFAS with multilevel redundancy designs. Systematic methods and risk-informed tools are incorporated to address both hardware and software CCFs, which provide guidance to eliminate the causal factors of potential single points of failure in the design of digital safety systems in advanced plant designs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Role of Pentaerythritol Tetranitrate (PETN) Aging in Determining Detonator Firing Characteristics

Pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN) is one of the most commonly used explosives for both military and mining applications. PETN is used in EBW (exploding bridge wire) and EFI (exploding foil initiator) detonator devices. Due the widespread usage of PETN, studies focusing on how the explosive changes with age, primarily its function in detonators has received particular interest. Aging studies have identified several factors that affect PETN detonator function over time, most notably the specific surface area of the explosive powder. Though small-scale studies have been performed on specific detonator systems with isolated batches of material, what is missing is a large statistically-significant study focusing on PETN aging characteristics - such as powder coarsening - and their influence on detonator performance. Herein we report the first large statistically viable PETN aging study focusing on four batches of PETN powder from the same stock of PETN using two stabilizers, polysaccharide and TriPEON. PETN was aged both as a free-flowing powder as well as in modified EBW RP-2 detonators, for one month at 75 °C. The PETN powder has been analyzed chemically using Fisher specific surface area analysis, SEM imaging and light scattering particle size analysis. Additionally the detonators were tested for performance through voltage-sweep threshold testing and function time measurements. Findings from the study indicate that aging at 75 °C for one month significantly changes the specific surface area and particle size of unstabilized PETN, leading to increases in detonator function time, but not detonator threshold values. Powders stabilized with TriPEON displayed less significant increases in function time, while powder stabilized with polysaccharide exhibited no aging effects, despite the high temperature aging.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

A Multi-Metrics In Situ Aging Detector for SiC Power MOSFET Modules with Full Driver-Integration Capability

In this paper, the concept and prototype of an aging detector for silicon carbide (SiC) power metal oxide semiconductor field effect transistor (MOSFET) are proposed and described. It leverages the resonant peak values of gate-source voltage at different instants during the switching transients to decode the change of multiple aging indicators, such as the increases of on-state resistance and threshold voltage. Modeling-based analysis is conducted to support the idea. The detector can be fully integrated into gate drivers without any additional connection to the power stage and is functional during normal power stage operation. A prototype unit was built, and preliminary tests were conducted to validate the idea and the practicality of the detector.

aging↗