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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Inferring adversarial behaviour in cyber‐physical power systems using a Bayesian attack graph approach

Abstract Highly connected smart power systems are subject to increasing vulnerabilities and adversarial threats. Defenders need to proactively identify and defend new high‐risk access paths of cyber intruders that target grid resilience. However, cyber‐physical risk analysis and defense in power systems often requires making assumptions on adversary behaviour, and these assumptions can be wrong. Thus, this work examines the problem of inferring adversary behaviour in power systems to improve risk‐based defense and detection. To achieve this, a Bayesian approach for inference of the Cyber‐Adversarial Power System (Bayes‐CAPS) is proposed that uses Bayesian networks (BNs) to define and solve the inference problem of adversarial movement in the grid infrastructure towards targets of physical impact. Specifically, BNs are used to compute conditional probabilities to queries, such as the probability of observing an event given a set of alerts. Bayes‐CAPS builds initial Bayesian attack graphs for realistic power system cyber‐physical models. These models are adaptable using collected data from the system under study. Then, Bayes‐CAPS computes the posterior probabilities of the occurrence of a security breach event in power systems. Experiments are conducted that evaluate algorithms based on time complexity, accuracy and impact of evidence for different scales and densities of network. The performance is evaluated and compared for five realistic cyber‐physical power system models of increasing size and complexities ranging from 8 to 300 substations based on computation and accuracy impacts.

Sahu, Abhijeet↗
DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive autoencoder latent space tuning for more robust machine learning beyond the training set for six-dimensional phase space diagnostics of a time-varying ultrafast electron-diffraction compact accelerator

In this work, we present a general adaptive latent space tuning approach for improving the robustness of machine learning tools with respect to time variation and distribution shift. We demonstrate our approach by developing an encoder-decoder convolutional neural network-based virtual 6D phase space diagnostic of charged particle beams in the HiRES ultrafast electron diffraction (UED) compact particle accelerator with uncertainty quantification. Our method utilizes model-independent adaptive feedback to tune a low dimensional 2D latent space representation of ~1 million dimensional objects which are the 15 unique 2D projections (x, y),...,(z, p z ) of the 6D phase space (x, y, z, p x , p y , p z ) of the charged particle beams. We demonstrate our method with numerical studies of short electron bunches utilizing experimentally measured UED input beam distributions.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Distributed Generation in California

In support of analysis for the biennial Integrated Energy Policy Report, the California Energy Commission and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory have partnered to study the growth of distributed energy resources in California. This study involves the use of National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Distributed Generation Market Demand model, available at https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/dgen/, to project statewide adoption of distributed photovoltaics and paired storage. Key outcomes of the collaboration include: • Improved representation of California building stock, load profiles, historical adoption, and tariffs, including the net billing tariff, in the dGen model; • Trained CEC staff members to use and adapt the dGen model for their specific needs; • Developed a methodology for representing emerging consumer segments to potentially adopt distributed energy resources, including low-income, multifamily, and renter-occupied buildings; • Forecasted solar photovoltaic and paired storage growth in California using a common set of modeling parameters. This report describes the multiyear effort, which includes a discussion of: • Methodology and data employed in adapting the Distributed Generation Market Demand model for California to forecast solar photovoltaic and storage statewide through 2040; • Steps taken to modify the base model to forecast solar photovoltaic adoption in emerging market segments such as multifamily or renter-occupied homes or both; • Future enhancements of the model.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Synchronization of Alternative Models in a Supermodel and the Learning of Critical Behavior

“Supermodeling” climate by allowing different models to assimilate data from one another in run time has been shown to give results superior to those of any one model and superior to any weighted average of model outputs. The only free parameters, connection strengths between corresponding variables in each pair of models, are determined using some form of machine learning. It is demonstrated that supermodeling succeeds because near critical states, interscale interactions are important but unresolved processes cannot be effectively represented diagnostically in any single parameterization scheme. In two examples, a pair of toy quasigeostrophic (QG) channel models of the midlatitudes and a pair of ECHAM5 models of the tropical Pacific atmosphere with a common ocean, supermodels dynamically combine parameterization schemes so as to capture criticality, associated critical structures, and the supporting scale interactions. The QG supermodeling scheme extends a previous configuration in which two such models synchronize with intermodel connections only between medium-scale components of the flow; here the connections are trained against a third “real” model. Intermittent blocking patterns characterize the critical behavior thus obtained, even where such patterns are missing in the constituent models. In the ECHAM-based climate supermodel, the corresponding critical structure is the single ITCZ pattern, a pattern that occurs in neither of the constituent models. In conclusion, for supermodels of both types, power spectra indicate enhanced interscale interactions in frequency or energy ranges of physical interest, in agreement with observed data, and supporting a generalized form of the self-organized criticality hypothesis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Model‐Based Approach to Selecting Pegfilgrastim Dose for Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Similarity Studies in Biosimilar Development

This study applied modeling and simulation (M&S) approaches to evaluate the sensitivity of pegfilgrastim pharmacokinetics (PKs) and pharmacodynamics (PDs) to changes in dose amount, and linear or nonlinear clearance (CL) over pegfilgrastim subcutaneous dose of 2–6 mg. A previously published model was adapted to better describe pegfilgrastim PK and PD data in healthy subjects and used in simulation. Nonlinear CL accounts for 98% and 77%, respectively, of the total CL of pegfilgrastim at 2 and 6 mg. The sensitivity analyses showed: (i) PK of 2 and 6 mg doses are similarly sensitive to detect differences for a 5% change in dose; (ii) PK of 2 mg dose is more sensitive to changes in receptor binding affinity, a model parameter for nonlinear CL, and a product quality attribute characterized with orthogonal methods as part of demonstrating analytical similarity between products; (iii) PK of approved 6 mg dose is more sensitive to changes in linear CL, which has not been associated with any specific product quality attributes, and (iv) the PDs are not sensitive to changes in linear or nonlinear CL. Taken together, our analyses support that the approved pegfilgrastim dose of 6 mg is appropriate for detecting differences between a biosimilar and the reference products in pegfilgrastim PK and PD similarity studies. The described M&S approaches can be adopted to support dose selection for biosimilars with nonlinear PK and complex PK–PD interplay.

Pharmacology & Pharmacy↗
DOE OSTI2025

TPCpp-10M: Simulated proton-proton collisions in a time projection chamber for AI foundation models

Scientific foundation models hold great promise for advancing nuclear and particle physics by improving analysis precision and accelerating discovery. Yet, progress in this field is often limited by the lack of openly available large scale datasets, as well as standardized evaluation tasks and metrics. Furthermore, the specialized knowledge and software typically required to process particle physics data pose significant barriers to interdisciplinary collaboration with the broader machine learning community. This work introduces a large, openly accessible dataset of 10 million simulated proton-proton collisions, designed to support self-supervised training of foundation models. To facilitate ease of use, the dataset is provided in a common NumPy format. In addition, it includes 70,000 labeled examples spanning three well defined downstream tasks: track finding, particle identification, and noise tagging, to enable systematic evaluation of the foundation model's adaptability. The simulated data are generated using the Pythia Monte Carlo event generator at a center of mass energy of $\sqrt{s}$ = 200 GeV and processed with Geant4 to include realistic detector conditions and signal emulation in the sPHENIX Time Projection Chamber at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider, located at Brookhaven National Laboratory. This dataset resource establishes a common ground for interdisciplinary research, enabling machine learning scientists and physicists alike to explore scaling behaviors, assess transferability, and accelerate progress toward foundation models in nuclear and high energy physics. The complete simulation and reconstruction chain is reproducible with the sPHENIX software stack. All data and code locations are provided under Data Accessibility.

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability (physics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Practical galaxy morphology tools from deep supervised representation learning

Astronomers have typically set out to solve supervised machine learning problems by creating their own representations from scratch. We show that deep learning models trained to answer every Galaxy Zoo DECaLS question learn meaningful semantic representations of galaxies that are useful for new tasks on which the models were never trained. We exploit these representations to outperform several recent approaches at practical tasks crucial for investigating large galaxy samples. The first task is identifying galaxies of similar morphology to a query galaxy. Given a single galaxy assigned a free text tag by humans (e.g. ‘#diffuse’), we can find galaxies matching that tag for most tags. The second task is identifying the most interesting anomalies to a particular researcher. Our approach is 100 per cent accurate at identifying the most interesting 100 anomalies (as judged by Galaxy Zoo 2 volunteers). The third task is adapting a model to solve a new task using only a small number of newly labelled galaxies. Models fine-tuned from our representation are better able to identify ring galaxies than models fine-tuned from terrestrial images (ImageNet) or trained from scratch. We solve each task with very few new labels; either one (for the similarity search) or several hundred (for anomaly detection or fine-tuning). This challenges the longstanding view that deep supervised methods require new large labelled data sets for practical use in astronomy. To help the community benefit from our pretrained models, we release our fine-tuning code zoobot. Zoobot is accessible to researchers with no prior experience in deep learning.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Aromatic amino acid metabolism and active transport regulation are implicated in microbial persistence in fractured shale reservoirs

Abstract Hydraulic fracturing has unlocked vast amounts of hydrocarbons trapped within unconventional shale formations. This large-scale engineering approach inadvertently introduces microorganisms into the hydrocarbon reservoir, allowing them to inhabit a new physical space and thrive in the unique biogeochemical resources present in the environment. Advancing our fundamental understanding of microbial growth and physiology in this extreme subsurface environment is critical to improving biofouling control efficacy and maximizing opportunities for beneficial natural resource exploitation. Here, we used metaproteomics and exometabolomics to investigate the biochemical mechanisms underpinning the adaptation of model bacterium Halanaerobium congolense WG10 and mixed microbial consortia enriched from shale-produced fluids to hypersalinity and very low reservoir flow rates (metabolic stress). We also queried the metabolic foundation for biofilm formation in this system, a major impediment to subsurface energy exploration. For the first time, we report that H. congolense WG10 accumulates tyrosine for osmoprotection, an indication of the flexible robustness of stress tolerance that enables its long-term persistence in fractured shale environments. We also identified aromatic amino acid synthesis and cell wall maintenance as critical to biofilm formation. Finally, regulation of transmembrane transport is key to metabolic stress adaptation in shale bacteria under very low well flow rates. These results provide unique insights that enable better management of hydraulically fractured shale systems, for more efficient and sustainable energy extraction.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

LA17-V-InverseRadTransportProblem-PD2Kb. Final Project Report

In the inverse radiation transport problem, a radiation signal emanating from an unknown object is used to reconstruct geometric and material parameters of the object , e.g., the mass of special nuclear material (SNM), the isotopic composition of the SNM (e.g., the enrichment of 235U), the thickness of shielding, etc. The inverse radiation transport problem is one of the most fundamental and important in the emergency response mission, and has been addressed in previous NA-22 and NA-42/84 investments by using derivative-free optimization methods. Our project was aimed at (i) consolidating previous work by applying polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) for reducing significantly the number of forward model simulations required by derivative-free optimization methods; (ii) developing a general-purpose framework and stand-alone software for solving the inverse radiation transport problem by applying a new “predictive modeling” methodology (predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems, PM_CMPS) which enables the fusing of experimental and computational information; and (iii) developing several benchmarks (for unscattered gamma rays) for demonstrating the quantification of non-Gaussian features (e.g., skewness and kurtosis, which characterize asymmetries and long tails) of response distributions by deterministically and efficiently propagating parameter uncertainties (covariances and higher-order moments, where available) using high-order sensitivities computed by the recently developed comprehensive adjoint sensitivity analysis methodology (C-ASAM). With regard to (i), application of PCE, the most significant accomplishment of this project was an implementation of PCE into INVERSE that significantly reduced computation time for the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) and Differential Evolution (DE) methods. For inverse transport problems with measurements of neutron leakage, neutron multiplication, and neutron-induced gamma-rays, the solution times for the DREAM and DE methods were reduced by factors of 30-300, reducing run times from hours to minutes while maintaining the same accuracy as the standard (non-PCE) DREAM and DE. Speedups were further improved by exploring sparse grid quadrature sets using the Toolkit for Adaptive Stochastic Modeling and Non-Intrusive ApproximatioN (Tasmanian) toolset. An initial exploration of sparse grids indicated that further speedups factors of 5-10 are obtainable. The implementation of PCE in INVERSE is not in a form that users can easily access. With regard to (ii), solving the inverse problem using a predictive modeling paradigm, the most significant accomplishment of this project were the derivation and implementation of adjoint-based second derivatives in neutron and photon transport theory. There are two codes that compute these derivatives. SENSPG computes them for uncollided gamma rays and SENSMG computes them for neutron leakage. SENSMG is open-source code available on github. Other significant accomplishments included a stand-alone code, MULTI-PRED, that implements the predictive modeling paradigm, along with a detailed manual. The code was implemented in the existing INVERSE code for inverse problems, but a head-to-head comparison of inverse methods was not achieved. We also derived and implemented the capability to compute sensitivities for multiplicity measurements into the SENSMG code, and this capability was used in a data assimilation application, but it was not used for solving inverse problems. With regard to (iii), developing benchmarks to demonstrate the importance of high-order sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, the most significant accomplishment of this project were two test problems that showed how important second-order sensitivities are.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic Model Development of a Wind Power Plant Using Neural Net Method to Forecast Wind Power Output (CRADA Final Report)

This project is intended to model wind power plant based on monitored data at the wind power plant. This project will promote the university research in Renewable Energy area and trains the future highly qualified engineers. The dynamic model will be based on neural net model with the input from the two met towers (12 inputs), and the number of turbines in operation (one input). The overall input will be 13 inputs to drive the simulations. The output power at the point of interconnection will be used to tune the neural net weight coefficients. Two neural net concepts will be investigated (the back propagation neural net and the dynamic recurrent neural net with feedback).

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Digital Modeling on Large Kernel Metamaterial Neural Network

Deep neural networks (DNNs) utilized recently are physically deployed with computational units (e.g., CPUs and GPUs). Such a design might lead to a heavy computational burden, significant latency, and intensive power consumption, which are critical limitations in applications such as Internet of Things (IoT), edge computing, and usage of drones. Recent advances in optical computational units (e.g., metamaterial) have shed light on energy-free and light-speed neural networks. However, the digital design of the metamaterial neural network (MNN) is fundamentally limited by its physical limitations, such as precision, noise, and bandwidth during fabrication. Moreover, the unique advantages of MNN’s (e.g., light-speed computation) are not fully explored via standard 3×3 convolution kernels. In this paper, we propose a novel large kernel metamaterial neural network (LMNN) that maximizes the digital capacity of the state-of-the-art (SOTA) MNN with model re-parametrization and network compression, while also considering the optical limitation explicitly. The new digital learning scheme can maximize the learning capacity of MNN while modeling the physical restrictions of meta-optics. With the proposed LMNN, the computation cost of the convolutional front-end can be offloaded to fabricated optical hardware. The experimental results on two publicly available datasets demonstrate that the optimized hybrid design improved classification accuracy while reducing computational latency. In conclusion, the development of the proposed LMNN is a promising step towards the ultimate goal of energy-free and light-speed AI.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Navigating Uncertainty: Challenges in Visualizing Ensemble Data and Surrogate Models for Decision Systems

Uncertainty visualization plays a critical role in transforming ensemble simulation data into actionable insights by effectively communicating various dimensions of uncertainty within a system. The emergence of artificial intelligence-driven surrogate models trained on multirun ensemble data offers a transformative opportunity to replace computationally intensive simulations with fast estimates, enabling users to explore data spaces with unprecedented depth and interactivity. However, integrating ensemble data and surrogate models into decision-making workflows and tools introduces novel challenges for uncertainty visualization. These include reconciling and clearly communicating the unique uncertainties associated with ensembles and their surrogate model estimates, and leveraging these approximations to inform actionable decisions. This work explores these challenges in the context of high-dimensional data visualization, bridging discrete datasets with their continuous representations and addressing the complexities of systems that support iterative navigation between input and output spaces. We evaluate the role of uncertainty visualization in fostering intuitive, actionable interactions and identify critical hurdles in advancing this frontier of computational simulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Outlook towards deployable continual learning for particle accelerators

Particle accelerators are high power complex machines. To ensure uninterrupted operation of these machines, thousands of pieces of equipment need to be synchronized, which requires addressing many challenges including design, optimization and control, anomaly detection and machine protection. With recent advancements, machine learning (ML) holds promise to assist in more advance prognostics, optimization, and control. While ML based solutions have been developed for several applications in particle accelerators, only few have reached deployment and even fewer to long term usage, due to particle accelerator data distribution drifts caused by changes in both measurable and non-measurable parameters. In this paper, we identify some of the key areas within particle accelerators where continual learning can allow maintenance of ML model performance with distribution drifts. Particularly, we first discuss existing applications of ML in particle accelerators, and their limitations due to distribution drift. Next, we review existing continual learning techniques and investigate their potential applications to address data distribution drifts in accelerators. By identifying the opportunities and challenges in applying continual learning, this paper seeks to open up the new field and inspire more research efforts towards deployable continual learning for particle accelerators.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A bi-level advanced control framework for large-scale control of buildings with system-level impact

Increased electricity consumption combined with new forms of generation is testing the reliability of our grid infrastructure. This work describes a method to improve the reliability of the grid through large-scale advanced building control. This paper develops a bi-level distributed control framework to shift the load of 153 buildings to achieve a system-level objective of tracking a power reference signal. This bi-level control is based on the previously-developed ANPV-MPC, a predictive controller that uses a Bayesian neural network to generate an accurate control model and adapt to changing conditions over time. By shifting the building electricity demand to better match the available power, the grid system supplying the buildings is more reliable as evidenced by the analysis of node voltages across an IEEE 13-bus distribution system. The proposed bi-level control framework tracks the system-level power reference with enough accuracy to regulate node voltages across the IEEE 13-bus distribution system within ANSI limits of ±5%. Additionally, the adaptive nature of ANPV-MPC allows each building across the system to adapt to changing conditions, further amplifying the system-level reliability.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Representing farmer irrigated crop area adaptation in a large-scale hydrological model

Abstract. Large-scale hydrological models (LHMs) are commonly used for regional and global assessment of future water shortage outcomes under climate and socioeconomic scenarios. The irrigation of croplands, which accounts for the lion's share of human water consumption, is critical in understanding these water shortage trajectories. Despite irrigation's defining role, LHM frameworks typically impose trajectories of land use that underlie irrigation demand, neglecting potential dynamic feedbacks in the form of human instigation of and subsequent adaptation to water shortages via irrigated crop area changes. We extend an LHM, MOSART-WM, with adaptive farmer agents, applying the model to the continental United States to explore water shortage outcomes that emerge from the interplay between hydrologic-driven surface water availability, reservoir management, and farmer irrigated crop area adaptation. The extended modeling framework is used to conduct a hypothetical computational experiment comparing differences between a model run with and without the incorporation of adaptive farmer agents. These comparative simulations reveal that accounting for farmer adaptation via irrigated crop area changes substantially alters modeled water shortage outcomes, with US-wide annual water shortages being reduced by as much as 42 % when comparing adaptive and non-adaptive versions of the model forced with US climatology from the period 1950–2009.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Interdigitation-Induced Order and Disorder in Asymmetric Membranes

We studied the transleaflet coupling of compositionally asymmetric liposomes in the fluid phase. The vesicles were produced by cyclodextrin-mediated lipid exchange and contained dipalmitoyl phosphatidylcholine (DPPC) in the inner leaflet and different mixed-chain phosphatidylcholines (PCs) as well as milk sphingomyelin (MSM) in the outer leaflet. In order to jointly analyze the obtained small-angle neutron and X-ray scattering data, we adapted existing models of trans-bilayer structures to measure the overlap of the hydrocarbon chain termini by exploiting the contrast of the terminal methyl ends in X-ray scattering. In all studied systems, the bilayer-asymmetry has large effects on the lipid packing density. Fully saturated mixed-chain PCs interdigitate into the DPPC-containing leaflet and evoke disorder in one or both leaflets. The long saturated acyl chains of MSM penetrate even deeper into the opposing leaflet, which in turn has an ordering effect on the whole bilayer. These results are qualitatively understood in terms of a balance of entropic repulsion of fluctuating hydrocarbon chain termini and van der Waals forces, which is modulated by the interdigitation depth. Monounsaturated PCs in the outer leaflet also induce disorder in DPPC despite vestigial or even absent interdigitation. Instead, the transleaflet coupling appears to emerge here from a matching of the inner leaflet lipids to the larger lateral lipid area of the outer leaflet lipids.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Higher than expected N 2 O emissions from soybean crops in the Pampas Region of Argentina: Estimates from DayCent simulations and field measurements

In developing countries, agriculture generally represents a large fraction of GHG emissions reported in National Inventories, and emissions are typically estimated using Tier 1 IPCC guidelines. However, field data and locally adapted simulation models can improve the accuracy of IPCC estimations. In this report we aimed to quantify anthropogenic N2O emissions from croplands of Argentina through field measurements, model simulations and IPCC guidelines. Here we measured N 2 O emissions and their controlling factors in 62 plots of the Pampas Region with corn, soybean and wheat/soybean crops and in unmanaged grasslands. We accounted for gross emissions from crops and background emissions from unmanaged grasslands to calculate net anthropogenic emissions from crops as the difference between them. We calibrated and evaluated the DayCent model and then simulated different weather and management scenarios. Finally, we applied IPCC guidelines to estimate anthropogenic N 2 O emissions at the same plots. The DayCent model accurately simulated annual N 2 O emission for all crops as compared to measured data (RMSE = 1.4 g N ha -1 day -1 ). Measured and simulated emissions in soybean crops were higher than in corn and wheat/soybean crops. Gross N 2 O emissions ranged from 1.4 to 5.1 kg N ha -1 yr -1 for current environmental (soil and weather) and management (crops and fertilizer doses) conditions. Background emissions ranged between 1.1 and 1.3 kg N ha -1 yr -1 , and therefore net anthropogenic emissions ranged from 0.3 to 4.0 kg N ha-1 yr -1 . IPCC Tier 1 emission factors underestimated N2O releases from soybean, that were on average 4.87 times greater when estimated with DayCent and observations (0.53 vs 2.47 and 2.69 kg N ha -1 yr -1 , respectively). On the contrary, IPCC estimates for corn and wheat/soybean crops were similar to modeled and measured values. Our results suggest that N 2 O emissions from the vast 15 million ha of soybean croplands in the Pampas Region may be substantially underestimated.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗