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A study of examiner accuracy in cartridge case comparisons. Part 1: Examiner error rates

This report describes a study undertaken to estimate examiner (not laboratory) error rates for false Identifications and false Eliminations when comparing an unknown to a collection of three known cartridge cases. Volunteer active examiners with Association of Firearm and Toolmark Examiners (AFTE) membership or working in laboratories that participate in the Association of Crime Laboratory Directors (ASCLD) were provided with 15 sets of three known and one questioned cartridge cases fired from a collection of 25 new Ruger SR9 handguns. Remington 9-mm Luger (manufacturer designation L9MM3) ammunition was used and comparison sets were made up of cartridge cases fired within 100 cartridges of each other for each gun. Examiners were provided with a background survey, an answer sheet allowing for the AFTE Range of Conclusions, and return shipping materials. In addition to determining whether the known and questioned cartridge cases were fired with the same handgun, examiners were also asked to assess how many of the three knowns in each set were suitable for comparison, providing an estimated rate of how often each firearm used in the study produces useable, quality marks. The participating examiners were provided with both same-source and different-source comparison sets allowing the study to assess both error rates. Responses were received from 218 participating examiners. The overall rate of false Eliminations was estimated as 0.367% from comparisons known to be from the same firearm but reported as Eliminations. The overall rate of false Identifications was estimated as 1.01% from comparisons known to be from different firearms but reported as Identifications. The rates are not uniform across the sample population with a few examiners providing most of the false Identification responses. Rates of poor-quality mark production varied across the 25 sample handguns; those rates were 2.3% (±1.4%). Both false Elimination and false Identification rates are comparable to or lower than the rate of production of poor-quality marks by the firearms used in this study.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

A study of examiner accuracy in cartridge case comparisons. Part 2: Examiner use of the AFTE range of conclusions

Here, this report describes an analysis of how examiners used the Association of Firearm and Toolmark Examiners (AFTE) Range of Conclusions in a controlled study undertaken to estimate examiner error rates in comparing cartridge cases. Results of the error rate analysis are reported in [1]; this paper focuses on a broader analysis of how the entire collection of classification categories, especially those in the Inconclusive range, were used by the participating examiners. Volunteer active examiners with AFTE membership or working in laboratories that participate in Association of Crime Laboratory Directors (ASCLD) were provided with 15 sets of three known and one questioned cartridge cases fired from a collection of 25 new Ruger SR9 handguns. Remington 9-mm Luger (manufacturer designation L9MM3) ammunition was used and comparison sets were made up of cartridge cases fired within 100 cartridges of each other for each gun. Examiners were provided with a background survey, an answer sheet allowing for the AFTE Range of Conclusions, and return shipping materials. The participating examiners were provided with both same-source and different-source comparison sets allowing the study to assess both error rates. Responses were received from 218 participating examiners. The overall rate of false-negatives was estimated as 0.367 % from comparisons known to be from the same firearm but reported as eliminations. The overall rate of false-positives was estimated as 1.01 % from comparisons known to be from different firearms but reported as identifications. In the case of true different-source examinations, it is clear that the three Inconclusive categories and the Elimination category are not used consistently by all examiners. We identify five different apparent patterns of use of the AFTE Range of Conclusions scale, and discuss possible reasons for and implications of these differences.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Planning, design and logistics of a decision analysis study: The FBI/Ames study involving forensic firearms examiners

This paper describes design and logistical aspects of a decision analysis study to assess the performance of qualified firearms examiners working in accredited laboratories in the United States in terms of accuracy (error rate), repeatability, and reproducibility of decisions involving comparisons of fired bullets and cartridge cases. The purpose of the study was to validate current practice of the forensic discipline of firearms/toolmarks (F/T) examination. It elicited error rate data by counting the number of false positive and false negative conclusions. Preceded by the experimental design, decisions, and logistics described herein, testing was ultimately administered 173 qualified, practicing F/T examiners in public and private crime laboratories. The first round of testing evaluated accuracy, while two subsequent rounds evaluated repeatability and reproducibility of examiner conclusions. This project expands on previous studies by involving many F/T examiners in challenging comparisons and by executing the study in the recommended double-blind format.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Opportunities and challenges in thermochemical conversion of municipal solid waste: A comprehensive review

Recent advancements in thermochemical conversion processes have elucidated new pathways for converting municipal solid waste into valuable resources. This review explores the primary thermochemical conversion methods, including combustion, gasification, pyrolysis, torrefaction, hydrothermal carbonization, and hydrothermal liquefaction, emphasizing their potential roles in waste management and energy recovery. Key challenges including feedstock variability, ash behavior, and scale-up limitations are discussed alongside opportunities for hybrid systems and circular economy integration. A comparative analysis of research publications indicates a significant focus on thermochemical pathways within the broader context of municipal solid waste research, underscoring the growing interest in these technologies. Recent advancements in each thermochemical process, alongside their operational, technical, and economic challenges, are discussed. Comparative data reveal that torrefaction enhances the hydrophobicity and grindability of municipal solid waste components, though its energy densification benefits are more modest than those observed in biomass. Hydrothermal carbonization and liquefaction are highlighted for their ability to process high-moisture and heterogeneous waste streams. The review also synthesizes recent findings on reactor configurations, emissions control, and synergistic effects in co-processing municipal solid waste fractions. The findings underscore the importance of developing standardized protocols for municipal solid waste characterization and the need for innovative hybrid systems to improve efficiency.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Quantum-centric supercomputing for materials science: A perspective on challenges and future directions

Computational models are an essential tool for the design, characterization, and discovery of novel materials. Computationally hard tasks in materials science stretch the limits of existing high-performance supercomputing centers, consuming much of their resources for simulation, analysis, and data processing. Quantum computing, on the other hand, is an emerging technology with the potential to accelerate many of the computational tasks needed for materials science. In order to do that, the quantum technology must interact with conventional high-performance computing in several ways: approximate results validation, identification of hard problems, and synergies in quantum-centric supercomputing. Here in this paper, we provide a perspective on how quantum-centric supercomputing can help address critical computational problems in materials science, the challenges to face in order to solve representative use cases, and new suggested directions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Some observations concerning "laminarization" in heated vertical tubes

For low "turbulent" Reynolds numbers in strongly-heated vertical gas flow, fundamental results of existing direct numerical simulation (DNS) databases have been examined to deduce differences between cases which "revert" to turbulent and those that yield integral parameters which correspond to laminar flow (henceforth laminarizing or laminarized). The objectives of this paper are (1) to examine the streamwise evolution of near-wall flow structures and (2) to determine which, if any, proposed laminarization parameters could be used to discriminate between turbulent and laminarizing flows resulting. Views of streamlines in r-θ cross sections showed evidence of a ring of irregular-shaped streamwise vortices near the wall at all locations. The transverse advection of these vortices is hypothesized to provide a path of least resistance to the transport of streamwise momentum in the wall-normal direction. It is demonstrated that a steady streamwise laminar vortex can provide apparent turbulent momentum transport (as a consequence of the Reynolds decomposition) such that a reasonable mean velocity profile is predicted near the wall. For the present cases, the values of the non-dimensional radius (y c,w + = Re τ,w ) and of the modified wall Reynolds number did discriminate whether turbulent or laminarizing flow resulted.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Thermal-striping analysis methodology for sodium-cooled reactor design

Computational fluid dynamics simulations have been performed to study the applicability of engineering CFD methods for thermals striping analysis. Thermal striping is the fluctuating temperature profile in a solid caused by fluctuating fluid temperature, and the resulting fluctuating thermal stresses cause high cycle fatigue and eventual material failure. Here this study presents the methodology for thermal striping analysis that including a transient conjugate heat transfer RANS model and benchmark the results against a sodium triple jet experiment. The multiphysics calculations are implemented to analyze the thermal stresses in the solid domain caused by the coupled heat transfer between the fluid and solid domains. Validation data from a liquid sodium triple jet experiment include time-averaged temperature measurements and power spectra of the temperature signal. The numerical results agree well with these experimental measures, demonstrating key features such as the dominant frequency of temperature fluctuations. The applicability of a low-cost wall treatment method is demonstrated, enabling key computational savings. Finally, the performance of two finite element stress analysis software packages is compared, and the validity of the lower-cost method is confirmed. These results demonstrate the applicability of engineering methods for computational thermal striping calculations, enabling thermal striping estimations in large fluid systems such as the core of a Sodium-cooled nuclear reactor.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Design and permitting considerations of a floating hydrogen production and dispensing Barge for the Port of San Francisco

This paper reports on the design of a Floating Hydrogen Production and Dispensing Barge destined for the Port of San Francisco (SF). The H 2 Barge is designed to produce renewable H 2 at the rate of ∼530 kg/day, storing 512 kg of hydrogen at 517-bar, allowing fast refueling of hydrogen fuel cell vessels and land-side hydrogen delivery trailers for distribution into the nascent SF hydrogen ecosystem. The broader considerations that impacted H 2 Barge design are also described. An account is given of a new review process formulated by the United States Coast Guard (USCG) to review this first-of-its-kind maritime implementation of hydrogen technology. Furthermore, the immediate goals of the H 2 Barge Project are to 1) demonstrate the feasibility, viability and methods of hydrogen production, storage and fueling in a maritime context, 2) help shape (where needed) and navigate the required local, state and federal regulatory gauntlet and 3) catalyze a “green hydrogen ecosystem” (both marine and landside) with locally produced renewable hydrogen at the San Francisco waterfront.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Resilient information and inference networks under mixed-trust sensing

With ubiquitous digitization, sensing, and computational intelligence deployed in increasingly more and broader domains, including critical infrastructure, potentially misleading and destabilizing effects of multimodal anomalies and adversarial behavior are growing in importance. Here, we develop randomized and reinforcement learning-based strategies for strategically recruiting and utilizing deployed (and, thus, vulnerable and potentially faulty and/or compromised) nodes from information and inference networks, while defending against adversaries that attempt to misguide assessments of inferred variables. Recognizing that, besides communication and other costs, sampling from any observable node can either provide true data or dangerously expose our inference to misinformation (without being easily distinguishable what actually happens), the proposed strategies proceed by progressively recruiting nodes and cautiously scaling their information contribution based on assumed, or, in our reinforcement learning approach, intelligently weighed trustworthiness, with the learning approach also considering network-wide, threat-inclusive risk/value tradeoffs. While avoiding the hardware, communication, analytical and computational burden of explicit redundancy, the proposed defensive schemes enable on-the-fly assessments of underlying processes, and system-wide situational awareness with demonstrable resilience against adversarial activities.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗