Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “yield estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

12 C(p,p') 12 C Reaction ( E p =19.5–30 MeV) for Active Interrogation of Special Nuclear Material

Passive detection of special nuclear material (SNM) is challenging due to its inherently low rate of spontaneous emission of penetrating radiation, the relative ease of shielding, and the fluctuating and frequently overwhelming background. Active interrogation, the use of external radiation to increase the emission rate of characteristic radiation from SNM, has long been considered to be a promising method to overcome those challenges. Current active-interrogation systems that incorporate radiography tend to use bremsstrahlung beams, which can deliver high radiation doses. Low-energy ion-driven nuclear reactions that produce multiple monoenergetic photons may be used as an alternative. The 12 C ( p , p ' ) 12 C reaction is one such reaction that could produce large yields of highly penetrating 4.4- and 15.1-MeV gamma rays. This reaction does not directly produce neutrons below the approximately 19.7 MeV threshold, and the 15.1-MeV gamma-ray line is well matched to the photofission cross section of 235 U and 238 U . In this article, we report the measurements of thick-target gamma-ray yields at 4.4 and 15.1 MeV from the 12 C ( p , p ' ) 12 C reaction at proton energies of 19.5, 25, and 30 MeV. Measurements are made with two 3 -in. EJ-309 cylindrical liquid scintillation detectors and thermoluminescent dosimeters placed at 0 ° and 90 ° , with an additional 1.5 -in. Na I ( Tl ) cylindrical scintillation detector at 0 ° . We estimate the highest yields of the 4.4- and 15.1-MeV gamma rays of 1.65 × 10 10 and 4.47 × 10 8 sr - 1 μ C - 1 at a proton energy of 30 MeV, respectively. The yields in all experimental configurations are greater than in a comparable deuteron-driven reaction that produces the same gamma-ray energies— 11 B ( d , n γ ) 12 C . However, a significant increase of the neutron radiation dose accompanies the proton energy increase from 19.5 to 30 MeV.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2020

Experimental studies of the two-step scheme with an intense radioactive 132 Sn beam for next-generation production of very neutron-rich nuclei

The study of nuclei in the yet-unexplored, very neutron-rich, mid- to heavy-mass region of the nuclear chart, comprising perhaps half of all nuclei predicted to exist, is leading to new and/or upgraded facilities, as well as to research into the underlying production processes. In the present study, the usefulness of the two-step scheme, an alternate method to produce very neutron-rich nuclei, by a combination of an isotope-separation online (ISOL) system as a first step, and in-beam fragmentation of re-accelerated radioactive isotopes (RIs) as a second step, was investigated with a 132 Sn beam. In this work, very neutron-rich RIs around the neutron-rich neutron number N = 82 region were produced from the 278-MeV/nucleon 132 Sn beam impinging on a 5.97-mm Be target, and their production cross sections were measured. Yields were then estimated for the two-step scheme with the 132 Sn beam relative to the ones by a one-step scheme, in-flight fission of a 238 U beam, for 1-MW proton and 238 U beams at respective RI-beam facilities. This comparison suggests that the two-step scheme with the 132 Sn beam provides yields >40-times higher than those with the one-step scheme for the very neutron-rich N = 82 region. Moreover, by using various RI beams over the nuclear chart from ISOL, certain kinds of very neutron-rich RIs around the supernova r-process path can be produced with greater yields than by the one-step approach.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Recalibrating Best Practices, Challenges, and Limitations of Estimating Tree Transpiration Via Sap Flow

Purpose: Transpiration dominates hydrologic fluxes from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere. Sap flow is the most widely used method to quantify transpiration, and calibrations can improve the accuracy of these estimates. Despite numerous suggestions to perform and apply sap flow calibrations, seemingly few reports apply these recommendations. Here, we sought to determine the prevalence of calibration across sap flow methodology. Recent Findings: In this work, we reviewed tree sap flow literature over the past nine years and determined that only 5.3% of these publications documented the performance of calibrations, the application of coefficients from previous calibrations, or the application of correction factors using calibration data to ensure or improve accuracy of transpiration estimates. These data indicate that calibration has not been adopted as a best practice. However, these data may also reflect challenges to the performance and application of calibration indicating fundamental limitations of sap flow methods. Summary: We highlight the need for testing critical assumptions regarding calibration; specifically, that coefficients derived from calibrations on small stems are suitable for application to large stems and that different calibration approaches yield similar transpiration estimates. We encourage researchers to adopt calibration as a best practice for sap flow data and to explain how calibration was performed, how calibration data were applied, and to acknowledge and justify circumstances that preclude or do not necessitate calibration. Without the adoption of calibration and an improved understanding of its limitations, our understanding of transpiration and ability to quantify it using this technology will remain inadequate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Long short-term memory embedded nudging schemes for nonlinear data assimilation of geophysical flows

Reduced rank nonlinear filters are increasingly utilized in data assimilation of geophysical flows, but often require a set of ensemble forward simulations to estimate forecast covariance. On the other hand, predictor-corrector type nudging approaches are still attractive due to their simplicity of implementation when more complex methods need to be avoided. However, optimal estimate of nudging gain matrix might be cumbersome. In this paper, we put forth a fully nonintrusive recurrent neural network approach based on a long short-term memory (LSTM) embedding architecture to estimate the nudging term, which plays a role not only to force the state trajectories to the observations but also acts as a stabilizer. Furthermore, our approach relies on the power of archival data and the trained model can be retrained effectively due to power of transfer learning in any neural network applications. In order to verify the feasibility of the proposed approach, we perform twin experiments using Lorenz 96 system. Our results demonstrate that the proposed LSTM nudging approach yields more accurate estimates than both extended Kalman filter (EKF) and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) when only sparse observations are available. With the availability of emerging AI-friendly and modular hardware technologies and heterogeneous computing platforms, we articulate that our simplistic nudging framework turns out to be computationally more efficient than either the EKF or EnKF approaches.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting Field Efficiency of Round-Baling Operations in High-Yielding Biomass Crops

Model simulations for bioenergy harvest planning need to utilize equipment-capacity relationships for equipment operating under the high-yield conditions typical of a biomass crop. These performance assumptions have a direct bearing on the estimates of machine capacity, the number of machines required, and, therefore, the cost to fulfill the biorefinery plant demands for a given harvest window. Typically, two major issues in these models have been poorly understood: the available time required to complete the harvest operation (often called probability of workdays) and the capacity of the harvest equipment as impacted by yield. Simulations use annual yield estimates, which incorporate weather events, to demonstrate year-to-year effects. Some simulations also incorporate potential yield increases from genetically modified energy crops. There are limited field performance data for most current forage equipment used for harvesting high-yield biomass crops. Analysis shows that the impact of wrap/eject time for round balers resulted in a 50% reduction in achieved throughput capacity (Mg/h). After the maximum throughput is reached, the cost of the round bale operation (3.23 USD/Mg) is double that of the large-square baler (1.63 USD/Mg). The round baler achieved throughput capacity is 50% less (32.7 Mg/h compared to 71.0 Mg/h) than the large-square baler.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators

High-resolution, spatially distributed process-based (PB) simulators are widely employed in the study of complex catchment processes and their responses to a changing climate. However, calibrating these PB simulators using observed data remains a significant challenge due to several persistent issues, including the following: (1) intractability stemming from the computational demands and complex responses of simulators, which renders infeasible calculation of the conditional probability of parameters and data, and (2) uncertainty stemming from the choice of simplified representations of complex natural hydrologic processes. Here, we demonstrate how simulation-based inference (SBI) can help address both of these challenges with respect to parameter estimation. SBI uses a learned mapping between the parameter space and observed data to estimate parameters for the generation of calibrated simulations. To demonstrate the potential of SBI in hydrologic modeling, we conduct a set of synthetic experiments to infer two common physical parameters – Manning's coefficient and hydraulic conductivity – using a representation of a snowmelt-dominated catchment in Colorado, USA. We introduce novel deep-learning (DL) components to the SBI approach, including an “emulator” as a surrogate for the PB simulator to rapidly explore parameter responses. We also employ a density-based neural network to represent the joint probability of parameters and data without strong assumptions about its functional form. While addressing intractability, we also show that, if the simulator does not represent the system under study well enough, SBI can yield unreliable parameter estimates. Approaches to adopting the SBI framework for cases in which multiple simulator(s) may be adequate are introduced using a performance-weighting approach. The synthetic experiments presented here test the performance of SBI, using the relationship between the surrogate and PB simulators as a proxy for the real case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Programming for Transportable Source Characterization and Uncertainty Quantification of the North Korean Nuclear Tests 2006–2017

Here, we introduce a transportable technique to determine the yield and depth of burial (DOB) from seismic source spectra of underground nuclear explosions. We demonstrate this technique on the six declared North Korean nuclear tests. This approach derives source spectra in absolute units from regional phase (Pg) amplitudes by correcting the observations for geometric spreading, attenuation, and site amplification. We couple the source spectra and explosion source models with a probabilistic programming framework that integrates deep learning techniques and Bayesian modeling. This approach permits the exchange of information across various data categories to quantify both the data and model uncertainty. This technique stands out as an innovative use of broad‐area propagation models, making it transportable across various geologic settings. This method proves to be effective in scenarios with diverse and/or limited observational data, even when the source depth is unknown. We present new independent estimates of absolute yield and DOB that are consistent with the prior assessments, underscoring the potential of this method in enhancing transportable nuclear explosion monitoring capabilities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Proxy quality control of biomass particles using thermogravimetric analysis and Gaussian process regression models

Abstract The temperature experienced by reactants during preparation in a reactor is a key component in determining the yield and homogeneity of usable chemical products such as biomass particles. Thermocouples with sensors can be used to monitor spatial temperature gradients within reactors but these sensors are often too expensive and/or invasive. The present work proposes a strategy to identify optimal machine learning models to infer the maximum effective temperature experienced by particles during oxidative biomass torrefaction using key thermochemical combustion parameters. The maximum rate of weight loss, the corresponding temperature, and fixed carbon content on a dry‐ash‐free basis are used as literature‐based predictor variables obtained from thermogravimetric analysis. The evaluation of 24 machine‐learning models using the standard tenfold cross‐validation method suggests that the exponential Gaussian process regression (GPR) model is the most effective, followed by other GPR models. These high‐performing GPR models were also utilized to predict the effective preparation temperature distribution of reactor‐produced biomass particles under eight conditions of varying residence time and air‐to‐biomass ratio. The effective preparation temperature and residence time of individual biomass particles were then encoded into the torrefaction severity factor and used to estimate the energy yield of the reactor output as a novel quality control method. © 2023 The Authors. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining published by Society of Industrial Chemistry and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Light Absorption by Brown Carbon over the South-East Atlantic Ocean

Biomass burning emissions often contain brown carbon (BrC), which represents a large family of light-absorbing organics that is chemically complex and therefore difficult to estimate their absorption of incoming solar radiation, resulting in large uncertainties in the estimation of the global direct radiative effect of aerosols. Here we investigate the contribution of BrC to the total light absorption of biomass burning aerosols over the South-East Atlantic Ocean with different optical models utilizing a suite of airborne measurements from the ORACLES 2018 campaign by introducing an effective refractive index of black carbon (BC), m eBC = n eBC +ik eBC , that accounts for all possible absorbing components at 660 nm wavelength to facilitate the attribution of absorption at shorter wavelengths. Most values of the imaginary part of the refractive index, k eBC , were larger than those commonly used for BC from biomass burning emissions, suggesting contributions from absorbers beyond BC at 660 nm. The TEM-EDX single particle analysis further suggests that these long-wavelength absorbers might include iron oxides, as iron is found to be present only when large values of k eBC are derived. Using this effective BC refractive index, we find that the contribution of BrC to the total absorption at 470 nm (R BrC,470 ) ranges from ~5–15 %, with the organic aerosol mass absorption coefficient (MAC OA,470 ) at this wavelength ranging from 0.25 ± 0.34 m 2 g -1 to 0.43 ± 0.12 m 2 g -1 . The core-shell model yielded much higher estimates of MAC OA,470 and R BrC,470 than homogeneous mixing models, underscoring the importance of model treatment. Another key finding was that estimates of the BrC contribution at 470 nm from the commonly used AAE (absorption Ångström exponent) attribution method (< 5 %) are much lower than the BrC contribution estimates (R BrC,470 ) using our new methodology that accounts for contributions from both BrC and non-carbonaceous, long-wavelength absorbers, such as magnetite. Thus, it is recommended that application of any optical properties-based attribution method use absorption coefficients at the longest possible wavelength to minimize the influence of BrC at the long wavelength and to account for potential contributions from other absorbing materials.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Contrasting Chemical Kinetic Parameters for Near In‐Service‐Temperature Aging and High‐Temperature Thermal Decomposition of Triaminotrinitrobenzene Formulations

Triaminotrinitrobenzene-based high explosives such as LX-17 offer high energy density and exceptional safety, yet their long-term aging behavior at low temperatures remains poorly understood. In this study, several legacy and new production lots of LX-17 were subjected to accelerated aging experiments below 100°C, during which the formation rate of the initial degradation product, monofurazan (F1), was monitored. Kinetic analysis was performed using a sample-age-aware computational approach, yielding activation energy estimates of 82–91 kJ mol −1 for the low-temperature initiation step—markedly lower than the ∼200 kJ mol −1 associated with high-temperature thermal decomposition. Extrapolation from established cookoff models supports the conclusion that the dominant degradation mechanism at low temperatures differs from that at high temperatures. In conclusion, our results provide a unified kinetic framework that bridges the gap between in-service conditions and high-temperature damage.

Chemistry - Chemical explosives↗
DOE OSTI2021

Observable proton decay in flipped SU(5)

We explore proton decay in a class of realistic supersymmetric flipped SU(5) models supplemented by a U(1) R symmetry which plays an essential role in implementing hybrid inflation. Two distinct neutrino mass models, based on inverse seesaw and type I seesaw, are identified, with the latter arising from the breaking of U(1) R by nonrenormalizable superpotential terms. Depending on the neutrino mass model an appropriate set of intermediate scale color triplets from the Higgs superfields play a key role in proton decay channels that include p → (e + , μ + ) π 0 , p → (e + , μ + ) K 0 , p → $\bar v$π + , and p → $\bar v$K + . We identify regions of the parameter space that yield proton lifetime estimates which are testable at Hyper-Kamiokande and other next generation experiments. We discuss how gauge coupling unification in the presence of intermediate scale particles is realized, and a Z 4 symmetry is utilized to show how such intermediate scales can arise in flipped SU(5). Finally, we compare our predictions for proton decay with previous work based on SU(5) and flipped SU(5).

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Lepton flavor asymmetries: from the early Universe to BBN

Large primordial lepton flavor asymmetries with almost vanishing total baryon-minus-lepton number can evade the usual BBN and CMB constraints if neutrino oscillations lead to perfect flavor equilibration. Solving the momentum averaged quantum kinetic equations (QKEs) describing neutrino oscillations and interactions, we perform the first systematic investigation of this scenario, uncovering a rich flavor structure in stark contradiction to the assumption of simple flavor equilibration. We find (i) a particular direction in flavor space, ∆ne ≃ – 2/3 (– 1)∆n μ for normal (inverted) neutrino mass hierarchy, in which the flavor equilibration is efficient and primordial asymmetries are essentially unconstrained, (ii) a minimal washout factor, ∆$n_{e}^{2}$| BBN ≤ 0.03 (0.016) ∑ α ∆$n_{α}^{2}$| ini yielding a conservative estimate for the allowed primordial asymmetries in a generic flavor direction, and (iii) particularly strong or weak washout if one of the initial flavor asymmetries vanishes due to non-adiabatic muon- or electron-driven MSW transitions. These results open up the possibility of a first-order QCD phase transition facilitated by large lepton asymmetries as well as baryogenesis from large and compensated ∆n e = ∆n μ asymmetries. Our systematic approach of deriving momentum averaged QKEs includes collision terms beyond the damping approximation, energy transfer between the neutrino and electron-photon plasma, and provides a fast and reliable way to investigate the impact of primordial lepton asymmetries at the time of BBN. We publicly release the Mathematica code COFLASY-M on https://github.com/mariofnavarro/COFLASY which solves the QKEs numerically.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development and validation of a second-order thermal network model for residential buildings

Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems can maintain the space air temperature of residential buildings, either directly by heating/cooling the air, or indirectly via heat transfer to and from the building structure that acts as a thermal mass. Hence, HVAC systems can help achieve load shifting, peak load reduction, and/or energy cost saving, thus enabling grid-interactive HVAC operation. A home thermal model that can accurately reflect the dynamics of the space air and interior wall surface temperatures, is therefore valuable. This paper develops such a model using the standard RC (resistance-capacitance) approach. The model contains a virtual envelope node and an internal space node and is thus second-order. A hybrid parameter identification scheme, made up of the least-squares and optimal search methods, is also developed. The proposed model and scheme were validated using data collected from a test home. It was found that a modest amount of training data was sufficient to yield reliable parameter estimates and accurate prediction. It was also found that when making 24-hour-ahead prediction of the space air temperature, both methods had comparable performances when the training data began in a transition season. However, when they began in an HVAC season, the optimal search method performed better. Furthermore, the least-squares method is recommended during a transition season due to its lower computational burden, while the optimal search method is recommended during an HVAC season due to its better estimation performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimization of the microstructure and mechanical properties of electron beam welded high-strength medium-entropy alloy (NiCoCr) 94 Al 3 Ti 3

For this work, the weldability and effects of subsequent heat treatment on the microstructure and mechanical properties of the medium-entropy alloy (MEA) (NiCoCr) 94 Al 3 Ti 3 have been explored using electron beam welding (EBW). It was found that EBW joints consist of a supersaturated f.c.c. matrix with coarse, asymmetric columnar grains (17.7–24 μm). The fraction of twins and Σ3 n CSL boundaries in weld joints was only 10% of that in the base metal, a value which increased to 30% after aging at 800 °C. The aging also led to improvements in the hardness, tensile strength, and work hardening rate, a result of the precipitation of a high volume fraction (0.29–0.33) of ultrafine (15–17.4 nm dia.) coherent spherical L1 2 -structured particles. The contributions of the L1 2 nanoparticles and Hall-Petch strengthening to the yield strength were estimated to be 537–573 MPa and 105–123 MPa, respectively. The MEA shows excellent weldability and, after aging, good strength (YS~1098 MPa, UTS~1368 MPa) and elongation to failure (~11%) by ductile fracture.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simulated Biomass Sorghum GHG Reduction Potential is Similar to Maize

Policy support for cellulosic biofuels is contingent on their achieving much greater reductions in life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions than corn starch ethanol. Biomass sorghum has been suggested as a genetically and agronomically tractable feedstock species to augment near-term cellulosic feedstock production. This study used DayCent modeling to investigate biomass sorghum production emissions relative to corn with and without stover utilization at 3,265 across the rainfed United States. Sorghum produced greater average feedstock dry matter (15.6±1.4 vs. 14.8±2.2 Mg ha -1 yr -1 ) and slightly lower estimated ethanol energy yields (10.6±1.0 vs. 11.8±2.9 MJ m -2 yr -1 ) as corn grain with 75% stover collection. The high biomass removals in both the sorghum and corn stover scenarios led to soil organic carbon losses on 90% and 100% of sites, respectively. Average feedstock production emissions intensities were similar between sorghum and corn with 75% stover removal (17.6±2.8 vs. 18.8±3.0 g CO 2 e MJ -1 ), but were notably lower under sorghum for sites in the southwestern study region (13.6±3.0 vs. 22.5±3.1 g CO 2 e MJ -1 ). Futhermore, these results suggest that biomass sorghum produces cellulosic feedstock with similar emissions to corn grain and at current yield levels is unlikely to meet the Renewable Fuel Standard emissions reduction threshold for cellulosic biofuels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Seismoacoustic analysis of underground explosions using the Rayleigh integral

SUMMARY A coupled seismoacoustic model is developed for the analysis of acoustic signals produced by underground explosive events with an aim to develop a means of improving estimated depth and yield for explosion monitoring. A ground spall model is used to predict surface motion characteristics produced by an underground explosion and the Rayleigh integral is applied to relate the surface motion to the acoustic signal some distance from surface ground zero. The low-frequency component of the ground motion associated with the prolonged free fall of lofted material during spall is found to dominate the acoustic signal propagating away from surface ground zero at shallow angles. The model is applied to observed ground motion and acoustic signals recorded during the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) with promising results. In addition to accurately predicting characteristics of the observed acoustic signals from several of the SPE events, the model provides a means of explaining the lack of signals observed during several events in the SPE due to the directionality of the higher frequency acoustic signals associated with the uplift and closure components as well as the lack of a spatially localized, longer duration dwell.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Particle production by a relativistic semitransparent mirror of finite size and thickness

Production of massless scalar particles by a relativistic semitransparent mirror of finite transverse size and longitudinal thickness in (1+3)D flat spacetime is studied. The derived particle spectrum formula is applied to two specific trajectories. One is the gravitational collapse trajectory invoked in (1+1)D perfectly reflecting moving mirror literature to mimic Hawking radiation, and the other is the plasma mirror trajectory proposed to be realizable in future experiments. It is found that the finiteness of the transverse size leads to diffraction, while the nontrivial thickness amplifies the production rate. We also estimated the particle yield as ~ 3000 in a 20-day data acquisition based on the parameters invoked in the proposed AnaBHEL experiment.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

BLUP and mean yields of selected top 25 high yielding half-sib families

BLUP and mean yields of selected top 25 high yielding half-sib families. The yield BLUP were estimated using mixed linear models. The family column indicates the families with progeny column showing the corresponding progenies to selected families. ‘Wat’ here has been used to denote Watkinsville, ‘Tif’ for Tifton and ‘TN’ for Tennessee.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗