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DOE OSTI2024

Attack Surface of Wind Energy Technologies in the United States

Low cost, reliable electrical energy production from wind relies upon automation and control systems, arguably more so than traditional thermal generation. These same systems, however, can serve as the target of adversaries’ cyber-attacks. Idaho National Laboratory (INL), at the request of the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER) and Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy’s (EERE’s) Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO), evaluated a generalized wind plant architecture to understand the classes of potential threat actors and the vectors that could enable a cyber-attack. This evaluation explores the attack surface of a representative wind plant, identifying potential methods and vectors that an adversary could leverage to conduct a cyber-attack. Included in this assessment are some recommended mitigations and approaches. Each recommendation requires a full security evaluation, cost/benefit analysis, and risk analysis by each owner and operator.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Long-Term Photovoltaic System Performance in Cold, Snowy Climates

As countries around the world transition towards renewable energy, there is increasing interest in using photovoltaic (PV) technologies to help decarbonize northern and alpine communities due to their scalability and affordability. However, a barrier to large-scale adoption of PV in cold climates is long-term performance uncertainty under snowfall, freeze-thaw cycles, low temperatures, and high winds. In this work, we provide a comprehensive review of published silicon degradation rates in cold Koppen-Geiger climate classifications of Dfb (humid continental), Dfc (subarctic), and ET (tundra). We first analyze the system degradation rates of three subarctic ground-mounted photovoltaic sites in North America using the RdTools year-on-year method: an Al-BSF double-axis tracking site in Fairbanks, Alaska (65degrees N); a PERC and silicon heterojunction bifacial vertical and south-tilted site in Fairbanks, Alaska; and a PERC south-facing fixed-tilt site in Fort Simpson, Northwest Territories (62degrees N). Degradation rates of these newly analyzed sites vary between -0.4%/year and -1.5%/year. Combining these data with previously reported cold climate degradation rates, we show that the distribution of cold climate degradation peaks at -0.1%/year to -0.2%/year but has a large tail with rates above -0.5%/year. The average reported cold climate degradation rate is -0.45%/year, whereas the median value is -0.33%/year. These results suggest that despite frequent freeze-thaw cycles and potential exposure to high wind and snow loads, PV systems in cold climates tend to degrade slower than PV systems in warmer climates. The limited sample size of reported degradation rates in cold climates (27) motivates the need for further data acquisition and monitoring efforts as new technologies are deployed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Super-Resolution for Renewable Energy Resource Data with Wind from Reanalysis Data and Application to Ukraine

With a potentially increasing share of the electricity grid relying on wind to provide generating capacity and energy, there is an expanding global need for historically accurate, spatiotemporally continuous, high-resolution wind data. Conventional downscaling methods for generating these data based on numerical weather prediction have a high computational burden and require extensive tuning for historical accuracy. In this work, we present a novel deep learning-based spatiotemporal downscaling method using generative adversarial networks (GANs) for generating historically accurate high-resolution wind resource data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Reanalysis version 5 data (ERA5). In contrast to previous approaches, which used coarsened high-resolution data as low-resolution training data, we use true low-resolution simulation outputs. We show that by training a GAN model with ERA5 as the low-resolution input and Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit (WTK) data as the high-resolution target, we achieved results comparable in historical accuracy and spatiotemporal variability to conventional dynamical downscaling. This GAN-based downscaling method additionally reduces computational costs over dynamical downscaling by two orders of magnitude. We applied this approach to downscale 30 km, hourly ERA5 data to 2 km, 5 min wind data for January 2000 through December 2023 at multiple hub heights over Ukraine, Moldova, and part of Romania. With WTK coverage limited to North America from 2007–2013, this is a significant spatiotemporal generalization. The geographic extent centered on Ukraine was motivated by stakeholders and energy-planning needs to rebuild the Ukrainian power grid in a decentralized manner. This 24-year data record is the first member of the super-resolution for renewable energy resource data with wind from the reanalysis data dataset (Sup3rWind).

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Community-Centric Microgrid Feasibility Analysis Framework to Accelerate Resilience of Island Communities

Marine energy offers a reliable energy solution for island and coastal communities, which often lack traditional local generation, to support their transition to energy independence and reduce reliance on externally imported fuels. Successful deployment of new technologies in these isolated locations requires community acceptance and approval from the outset, as these communities typically lack the financial and technical resources to operate and maintain new systems. This report presents a community-centric microgrid planning framework for remote coastal and island communities. Community engagement is integrated as the first step in the planning process, incorporating community profiles and visions into energy development scenarios. A case study was conducted in St. George, Pribilof Islands, Alaska, which relies entirely on diesel yet has significant wind and wave energy potential. Community engagement revealed a unique history and current economic status, with an interest in adopting advanced energy technologies despite past failures. Various microgrid configurations were optimized, considering different technologies to meet current and future energy needs while balancing cost and energy resilience. Wave energy converters (WECs) were a key component, integrated with other energy sources using the Xendee optimization tool. The Marine Energy Microgrid Toolkit, developed as part of this work, uses commercial power system analysis tools to optimize and analyze microgrid scenarios. The developed framework and toolkit can be applied to island and coastal communities to enhance resilience and support microgrid deployments. Future enhancements will include incorporating new marine resources, developing dynamic models, and automating the integration of Xendee and PowerFactory simulations.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2021

Improved prescription for winding an electromagnet

We describe an improvement on the magnetic scalar potential approach to design an electromagnet, which incorporates the need to wind the coil as a helix. Any magnetic field that can be described by a magnetic scalar potential is produced with high fidelity within a Target region; all fields are confined within a larger Return. The helical winding only affects the field in the Return.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Investigating Tropical Versus Extratropical Influences on the Southern Hemisphere Tropical Edge in the Unified Model

Abstract Since the late 1970s, observations have shown a widening of the tropical Hadley cell (HC) circulation. State‐of‐the‐art climate models reproduce the general trend along with a projected continuous expansion. Discrepancies in expansion rates of observation‐ and model‐based studies have been attributed to differences in applied methods, natural variability and model shortcomings. Furthermore, the driving influence of tropical or extratropical processes on these changes is not well understood. All of this highlights the dynamical mechanisms and the region of origin controlling the tropical width are still insufficiently understood. Here we examine the influence of systematic model biases of the atmosphere‐only Unified Model (UM) onto the simulation of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) tropical edge. We utilize nudged experiments with prescribed sea surface temperatures, where potential temperature and horizontal winds are relaxed back to ERA‐Interim reanalysis for a 20‐year period in selected regions. Correcting model biases in the tropics and extratropics separately allows us to dissect the dominant remote impacts of present model errors onto the SH tropical edge simulation. The experiments are applied to established tropical width metrics ranging from near‐surface to upper‐level metrics capturing the poleward flank of the HC. We find both regions work remotely to reduce errors in the UM fields and location of the tropical edge. Surprisingly, correcting the extratropical biases, south of 45°S, more consistently improves the tropical width across the metrics and seasons than nudging the tropics (10°N–10°S). These findings demonstrate the substantial role of extratropical influences in locating the SH tropical edge.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Future Changes in Active and Inactive Atlantic Hurricane Seasons in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model

Abstract North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) have considerable interannual variability, with La Niña and the positive phase of the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) tending to drive active hurricane seasons, and El Niño and the negative AMM often driving inactive seasons. Here, we analyze how active and inactive Atlantic hurricane seasons may change in the future using the high resolution Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We performed atmosphere‐only simulations forced by sea‐surface temperature patterns characteristic of La Niña and the positive AMM jointly, and El Niño and the negative AMM jointly, in historical and future climates. Projected Atlantic TCs become more frequent in the future by approximately 34% during El Niño and negative AMM and by 66% during La Niña and positive AMM, with a significant increase in the portion of intense TCs. Warmer SSTs increase TC potential intensity, with reduced wind shear and increased mid‐tropospheric humidity further supporting TC activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Coupling turbulent flow with blade aeroelastics and control modules in large-eddy simulation of utility-scale wind turbines

We present a large-eddy simulation framework capable of control co-design of large wind turbines, coupling the turbulent flow environment with blade aeroelastics and turbine controllers. The geometry and aerodynamics of the rotor blades and the turbine nacelle are parameterized using an actuator surface model. The baseline collective pitch control and individual pitch control (IPC) algorithms, consisting of a single-input, single-output proportional–integral controller and two integral controllers, respectively, are incorporated into the simulation framework. Furthermore, a second-order model based on the Euler–Bernoulli beam theory is implemented to describe the blade deformation. Simulations are carried out to investigate the impact of collective and individual pitch control strategies on the deflection of turbine blades. Our results show that the IPC reduces the blade tip deflection fluctuations in the out-of-plane direction, while the fluctuations of the blade tip deflection along the in-plane direction are barely affected by the IPC. Furthermore, the blade out-of-plane deformation fluctuation is underestimated by the one-way coupling approach compared to the two-way coupling approach. Furthermore, the findings of this study reveal the importance of advanced control systems in reducing the dynamic loads on wind turbine blades and underscore the potential of control co-design to reduce the levelized cost of wind energy.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Probing the atmospheric boundary layer with integrated remote-sensing platforms during the American WAKE ExperimeNt (AWAKEN) campaign

The American WAKE ExperimeNt (AWAKEN) collaboration is an observational-based field campaign in northern Oklahoma intended to analyze the potential influence of onshore wind farms and their collective wakes on wind power production, turbine structural loads, and on the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). Focusing on the ABL effects, the University of Oklahoma and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory collected continuous high-resolution kinematic and thermodynamic profile measurements during 2022 and Summer 2023. The deployment strategy for these campaigns is detailed first, followed by an initial comparison of data from two sites in the AWAKEN domain: a near-farm site to examine collective wake impacts on the ABL, and a far-field site remaining outside the wind farm-waked region. Here, we summarize the datasets available and demonstrate the benefits of these observations and multiple value-added products (VAPs) for investigation of ABL features observed during AWAKEN. We also highlight examples of preliminary analyses, including ABL height detection and nocturnal low-level jet examination, which are produced using novel VAPs based on optimal estimation to retrieve deeper Doppler lidar wind profiles than previously resolved, along with their uncertainty. By including the near-farm and far-field site in these analyses, we identified a pattern of stronger lower-atmospheric mixing at the near-farm site than the far-field site, motivating deeper investigation into the relationship between wind farms and general ABL characteristics. Future analysis will delve deeper into this relationship by examining other ABL characteristics, such as atmospheric stability and convection.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quench detection using Hall sensors in high-temperature superconducting CORC ® -based cable-in-conduit-conductors for fusion applications

Advanced magnet systems for fusion applications would greatly benefit from the use of high-temperature superconductors (HTS). These materials allow fusion magnets to operate at higher magnetic fields, allowing for more compact fusion machines, and allow for operation at elevated temperatures, enabling demountable coils that provide access for maintenance of the fusion reactor. Quench detection remains a major challenge in the protection of HTS magnets that are vulnerable to localized conductor burnout due to their low quench propagation velocities. One of the methods explored is the use of Hall sensors that are incorporated in or near the magnet terminations that can detect local field variations that occur as a result of current redistribution within the conductor to bypass a hotspot within the magnet winding. This method is potentially well suited for Cable in Conduit Conductors, such as those made from Conductor on Round Core (CORC) cables, in which sub-cables containing HTS tapes are connected to the terminations at a low resistance. Here, to demonstrate the technique, a CORC ® triplet consisting of three sub-cables, rated for 4 kA operation at 77 K, was manufactured and Hall sensors were used to measure local field variations next to the terminations due to current redistribution between the cables. The Hall response was compared to voltages that developed over the cables and terminations as a local hotspot was applied to different cables in the triplet. It was found that the Hall sensors were faster and more sensitive than voltage contact measurements and were able to reliably detect current redistribution of only a few amperes caused by a hotspot, well before the triplet exceeded its critical current. The method also allowed the detection of heater-induced hotspots during high ramp rates of 2 kA s<:sup>–1 relevant for fusion applications. Hall sensors have a distinct benefit of being less sensitive to inductive pickup of AC interference compared to voltage contact measurements that make quench detection through voltage measurements in magnets especially challenging. The method can also be used for diagnostic measurements of current redistribution caused by other sources such as inhomogeneous current injection from faulty joints, or localized conductor damage. The Hall sensors are likely capable of detecting the onset of a quench that may occur a far distance away from the sensor location, presenting a breakthrough in HTS quench detection that potentially removes one of the remaining barriers to reliable operation of large HTS magnet systems.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2020

Strong chemical tagging with APOGEE: 21 candidate star clusters that have dissolved across the Milky Way disc

ABSTRACT Chemically tagging groups of stars born in the same birth cluster is a major goal of spectroscopic surveys. To investigate the feasibility of such strong chemical tagging, we perform a blind chemical tagging experiment on abundances measured from APOGEE survey spectra. We apply a density-based clustering algorithm to the 8D chemical space defined by [Mg/Fe], [Al/Fe], [Si/Fe], [K/Fe], [Ti/Fe], [Mn/Fe], [Fe/H], and [Ni/Fe], abundances ratios which together span multiple nucleosynthetic channels. In a high-quality sample of 182 538 giant stars, we detect 21 candidate clusters with more than 15 members. Our candidate clusters are more chemically homogeneous than a population of non-member stars with similar [Mg/Fe] and [Fe/H], even in abundances not used for tagging. Group members are consistent with having the same age and fall along a single stellar-population track in log g versus Teff space. Each group’s members are distributed over multiple kpc, and the spread in their radial and azimuthal actions increases with age. We qualitatively reproduce this increase using N-body simulations of cluster dissolution in Galactic potentials that include transient winding spiral arms. Observing our candidate birth clusters with high-resolution spectroscopy in other wavebands to investigate their chemical homogeneity in other nucleosynthetic groups will be essential to confirming the efficacy of strong chemical tagging. Our initially spatially compact but now widely dispersed candidate clusters will provide novel limits on chemical evolution and orbital diffusion in the Galactic disc, and constraints on star formation in loosely bound groups.

Price-Jones, Natalie↗

DOE OSTI2025

Daily modulation of low-energy nuclear recoils from sub-GeV dark matter

At sufficiently low nuclear recoil energy, the scattering of dark matter (DM) in crystals gives rise to single phonon and multiphonon excitations. In anisotropic crystals, the scattering rate into phonons modulates over each sidereal day as the crystal rotates with respect to the DM wind. This gives a potential avenue for directional detection of DM. The daily modulation for single phonons has previously been calculated. Here we calculate the daily modulation for multiphonon excitations from DM in the mass range 1 MeV–1 GeV. We generalize previous multiphonon calculations, which made an isotropic approximation, and implement results in the DarkELF package. We find daily modulation rates up to 1%–10% for an Al 2 O 3 target and DM mass below 30 MeV, depending on the recoil energies probed. We obtain similar results for SiC, while modulation in Si, GaAs, and SiO 2 is negligible. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Stratman, Connor↗

DOE OSTI2021

Which Combinations of Environmental Conditions and Microphysical Parameter Values Produce a Given Orographic Precipitation Distribution?

This study applies an idealized modeling framework, alongside a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, to explore which combinations of upstream environmental conditions and cloud microphysical parameter values can produce a particular precipitation distribution over an idealized two-dimensional, bell-shaped mountain. Simulations focus on orographic precipitation produced when an atmospheric river interacts with topography. MCMC-based analysis reveals that different combinations of parameter values produce a similar precipitation distribution, with the most influential parameters being relative humidity (RH), horizontal wind speed (U), surface potential temperature (θ sfc ), and the snow fall speed coefficient (A s ). RH, U, and A s exhibit interdependence: changes in one or more of these factors can be mitigated by compensating changes in the other(s) to produce similar orographic precipitation rates. The results also indicate that the parameter sensitivities and relationships can vary for spatial subregions and given different environmental conditions. In particular, high θ sfc values are more likely to produce the target precipitation rate and spatial distribution, and thus the ensemble of simulations shows a preference for liquid precipitation at the surface. The results presented here highlight the complexity of orographic precipitation controls, and have implications for flood and water management, observational efforts, and climate change.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Potential Roles of Preexisting Airmass Boundaries on a Tornadic Supercell Observed by TORUS on 28 May 2019

On 28 May 2019, a tornadic supercell, observed as part of Targeted Observation by UAS and Radars of Supercells (TORUS) produced an EF-2 tornado near Tipton, Kansas. The supercell was observed to interact with multiple preexisting airmass boundaries. These boundaries and attendant air masses were examined using unoccupied aircraft system (UAS), mobile mesonets, radiosondes, and dual-Doppler analyses derived from TORUS mobile radars. The cool-side air mass of one of these boundaries was found to have higher equivalent potential temperature and backed winds relative to the warm-side air mass; features associated with mesoscale air masses with high theta-e (MAHTEs). It is hypothesized that these characteristics may have facilitated tornadogenesis. The two additional boundaries were produced by a nearby supercell and appeared to weaken the tornadic supercell. This work represents the first time that UAS have been used to examine the impact of preexisting airmass boundaries on a supercell, and it provides insights into the influence environmental heterogeneities can have on the evolution of a supercell.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Duke Energy Carbon-Free Resource Integration Study

Duke Energy has partnered with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to evaluate pathways to achieving their carbon-free targets and to assess the operational impacts of the resulting system. This report details findings from Phase II of the Duke Low Carbon Resource Integration study, which consisted of three separate but interrelated analyses: (1) a resource assessment exploring the technical and economic potential and characteristics of wind and solar resources in the Carolinas; (2) capacity expansion modeling identifying the least-cost investment pathways for achieving 70% CO 2 emissions reductions in North Carolina by 2030 and a net-zero electricity system by 2050; and (3) detailed production cost modeling of power system operations at the higher shares of low- and zero-carbon emitting generation sources, informed by the capacity expansion modeling portion of the analysis. The analysis finds that Duke Energy can approach the 2030 and 2050 emissions target in North Carolina through investment in a combination of solar, wind, and storage along with maintaining its existing nuclear fleet. The average cost of CO 2 abatement in the Carolinas through 2021-2050 is on the order of $\$27-33$ per metric ton (range of $\$9-34$ per metric ton across key sensitivities).Duke Energy can expected increased interchange with neighbors to help balance higher levels of solar, although the ability to do this will depend on whether neighboring regions also move to integrate more carbon-free resources. As Duke Energy moves toward both the 2030 and 2050 targets, addressing energy needs during the winter peak period becomes particularly important, and the system relies on the availability of resources such as renewable or hydrogen combustion turbines, seasonal storage, or other similar technologies that are dispatchable but able to operate at low capacity factors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Interregional Renewable Energy Zones in National Transmission Analysis

This report describes the interregional renewable energy zone (IREZ) methodology for national application in the United States. The aim is to develop a data-driven, replicable methodology for use in long-term regional and interregional transmission planning. An IREZ is best understood as a conceptual transmission collection point that is easily accessible to a very high volume of low-cost developable wind and solar energy potential. The objective is to identify opportunities for new high-volume long-distance interregional transmission corridors: a limited number of lines with higher voltages, with reduced total cost per megawatt of transfer capability.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Generator Interconnection Cost Analysis in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) territory

Electric transmission system operators (ISOs, RTOs, or utilities) require new large generators seeking to connect to the grid to undergo a series of impact studies before they can be built. This process establishes what new transmission equipment or upgrades may be needed before a project can connect to the system and assigns the costs of that equipment. Berkeley Lab has collected interconnection cost data from interconnection studies for the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), representing nearly 50% of all projects requesting interconnection from 2010 to 2020. Project-level cost summary data are available for download on this page. We find: -Average interconnection costs have grown as the number of interconnection requests have escalated -Projects that have completed all required interconnection studies have the lowest cost compared to applicants still actively working through the interconnection process or those that have withdrawn. -Broader network upgrade costs are the primary driver of recent cost increase. -Potential interconnection costs for wind, storage, and solar are larger than for natural gas -Larger generators have greater interconnection costs in absolute terms, but economies of scale exist on a per kW basis. -Interconnection costs vary by location Berkeley Lab will publish a series of short analytical papers of generator interconnection costs to the transmission system for MISO, PJM, SPP, ISO-NE and NYISO, which you can find at https://emp.lbl.gov/interconnection_costs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cyber-Physical Resiliency for Wind Power Generation

During the next three years, wind power generation is expected to add more generation capacity to the national electrical grid than any other energy sector. With new wind turbine designs rated power over 10 MW and wind farms reaching over 1 GW capacities, the consequences of cyber-attacks on wind power generation are becoming increasingly more critical. Moreover, the known vulnerabilities of wind turbine control systems and the potential damaging effects of intrusions, motivate an urgent protection improvement for the wind power generation sector. This program has developed a variety of new adaptive defense technologies that enable wind power generation systems to survive sophisticated cyberattacks by enhancing the control systems capabilities of detection, localization, and accommodation. The introduction of these technologies in the on-shore and the emerging off-shore market will result in a significantly more reliable and secure wind power infrastructure.

17 WIND ENERGY↗