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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Utilizing Advanced Air Mobility Rotorcraft Tools for Wildfire Applications

Over the past decade, due in large part to heavy investment in the field of Advanced Air Mobility (AAM), significant progress in rotorcraft-focused modeling tools has been made. Such progress has notably increased AAM rotorcraft modeling capabilities in the topics of conceptual design, preliminary design, and more recently flight dynamics. Yet, due to recent and persistent increases in extreme weather events, an emerging interest has been raised in utilizing such modeling capabilities for aiding in emergency relief efforts and other public good missions. This paper uses wildfire fighting as a representative public good mission and demonstrates the relevance of the NASA Revolutionary Vertical Lift Technology (RVLT) rotorcraft toolchain to such missions. An emphasis is placed on flight dynamics modeling and control because of the hazards and challenges associated with the atmospheric environment of wildfires. In this work, the NASA FlightCODE tool was used to analyze both a UH-60 and the NASA six-passenger quadcopter reference model hovering in an experimentally informed wildfire turbulent environment. Preliminary results of this study estimate actuator usage exceedances and disturbance rejection capabilities of the vehicles’ translational rate command systems. Leveraging the RVLT toolchain, refinement and expansion of this work could lead to handling qualities envelope estimation and design optimization for wildfire turbulent environments. This would provide pilots with additional information to make real-time decisions in high-risk scenarios and begins preparations for simulating these dangerous environments for pilot training and experimentation.

Rotorcraft↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mechanical Solutions Scan Report

Power lines, poles, and towers are the backbone of the United States (U.S.) electric-power grid. These transmission and distribution networks route electricity from generator to loads. The characteristics of these routes are rapidly changing -- trending towards decentralized renewable generation, electric heating, vehicle charging, and large data-center loads. Coupled with aging infrastructure and the increased frequency of extreme weather events, there is concern about the future reliability and transmission capacity of conductors and adjacent components. This scan report seeks to provide an overview of mechanical solutions to challenges caused by extreme weather events associated with components of transmission and distribution infrastructure, including conductor heat sag, ice accumulation, wind, and wildfire. Many options could increase transmission capacity or reliability, and these are at various stages of technological readiness. Some have only been lab tested, while some have been widely deployed in the U.S. or overseas for decades. The solution categories and providers featured in this report are intended to be comprehensive at the time of publication and to serve as a reference for decision-makers concerned about transmission and distribution reliability. There are two other categories of large, complex solutions, which are not covered in this report: replacing existing conductors with advanced conductors and implementing digital grid enhancing technologies. A separate scan report titled “Advanced Conductor Scan Report,” which discusses advanced carbon-core conductors, was published by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in 2023. Information on digital technologies, such as dynamic line ratings, power-flow controllers, and other power electronics and communications-based devices, can be found on the Grid- Enhancing Technologies landing page. Mechanical grid-enhancing technologies, or solutions covered in this report, often do not require full equipment replacement and do not rely on digital components. Mechanical technologies are overlooked because they may be older, simpler, or seemingly “more obvious” than digital or carbon-core technologies. However, it is wise to consider mechanical solutions in a thorough evaluation of grid enhancing technology solutions.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Inventory of AI-ready Benchmark Data for US Fires, Heatwaves, and Droughts

Extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts, have significant impacts on earth, environmental, and energy systems. Mechanistic and predictive understanding, as well as probabilistic risk assessment of these extreme weather events, are crucial for detecting, planning for, and responding to these extremes. Records of extreme weather events provide an important data source for understanding present and future extremes, but the existing data needs preprocessing before it can be used for analysis. Moreover, there are many nonstandard metrics defining the levels of severity or impacts of extremes. In this study, we compile a comprehensive benchmark data inventory of extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts. The dataset covers the period from 2001 to 2020 with a daily temporal resolution and a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° (~55km×55km) over the continental United States (CONUS), and a spatial resolution of 1km × 1km over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region, together with the co-located and relevant meteorological variables. By exploring and summarizing the spatial and temporal patterns of these extremes in various forms of marginal, conditional, and joint probability distributions, we gain a better understanding of the characteristics of climate extremes. The resulting AI/ML-ready data products can be readily applied to ML-based research, fostering and encouraging AI/ML research in the field of extreme weather. This study can contribute significantly to the advancement of extreme weather research, aiding researchers, policymakers, and practitioners in developing improved preparedness and response strategies to protect communities and ecosystems from the adverse impacts of extreme weather events. Usage Notes We presented a long term (2001-2020) and comprehensive data inventory of historical extreme events with daily temporal resolution covering the separate spatial extents of CONUS (0.5°×0.5°) and PNW(1km×1km) for various applications and studies. The dataset with 0.5°×0.5° resolution for CONUS can be used to help build more accurate climate models for the entire CONUS, which can help in understanding long-term climate trends, including changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, predicting future extreme events as well as understanding the implications of extreme events on society and the environment. The data can also be applied for risk accessment of the extremes. For example, ML/AI models can be developed to predict wildfire risk or forecast HWs by analyzing historical weather data, and past fires or heateave , allowing for early warnings and risk mitigation strategies. Using this dataset, AI-driven risk assessment models can also be built to identify vulnerable energy and utilities infrastructure, imrpove grid resilience and suggest adaptations to withstand extreme weather events. The high-resolution 1km×1km dataset ove PNW are advantageous for real-time, localized and detailed applications. It can enhance the accuracy of early warning systems for extreme weather events, helping authorities and communities prepare for and respond to disasters more effectively. For example, ML models can be developed to provide localized HW predictions for specific neighborhoods or cities, enabling residents and local emergency services to take targeted actions; the assessment of drought severity in specific communities or watersheds within the PNW can help local authorities manage water resources more effectively.

Lin, Xinming↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulating Pyrocumulonimbus Clouds Using a Multiscale Wildfire Simulation Framework

Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) clouds, driven by extreme fires under favorable meteorological conditions, can inject smoke into the stratosphere at magnitudes comparable to those of moderate volcanic eruptions, potentially altering the global radiative balance and atmospheric composition. However, simulating pyroCb is particularly challenging in Earth system models. Using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), we developed a novel global multiscale framework to model pyroCb events in California, which includes a high‐resolution fire radiative power time series, a one‐dimensional plume‐rise parameterization, a fire‐induced vertical water vapor transport scheme, and a surface wildfire sensible heat flux representation. Our simulation successfully reproduces many pyroCb features, including cloud height, spatiotemporal evolution, and convective intensity in comparison with satellite and ground‐based observations. Sensitivity experiments show that realistic pyroCb simulation depends on vertical water vapor transport. These advances provide a basis for future exploration of pyroCb impacts at regional and global scales within climate models.

E3SM↗
NASA NTRS2021

Evaluation of Novel NASA MODIS and VIIRS Aerosol Products and Assessment of Smoke Height Boundary Layer Ratio During Extreme Smoke Events in the Western U.S.

We analyze new aerosol products from NASA satellite retrievals over the western U.S. during August 2013, with special attention to locally generated wildfire smoke and downwind plume structures. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm from MODIS (Terra and Aqua Collections 6 and 6.1) and VIIRS Deep Blue (DB) and MODIS (Terra and Aqua) Multi‐Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) retrievals are evaluated against ground‐based AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) observations. We find a significant improvement in correlation with AERONET and other metrics in the latest DB AOD (MODIS C6.1 r^2=0.75, VIIRS r^2=0.79) compared to MODIS C6 (r2=0.62). In general, MAIAC (r^2=0.84) and DB (MODIS C6.1 and VIIRS) present similar statistical evaluation metrics for the western U.S. and are useful tools to characterize aerosol loading associated with wildfire smoke. We also evaluate three novel NASA MODIS plume injection height (PIH) products, one from MAIAC and two from the Aerosol Single scattering albedo and layer Height Estimation (ASHE) (MODIS and VIIRS) algorithm. Both Terra and Aqua MAIAC PIHs statistically agree with ground‐based and satellite lidar observations near the fire source, as do ASHE, although the latter is sensitive to assumptions about aerosol absorption properties. We introduce a first‐order approximation Smoke Height Boundary Layer Ratio (SHBLR) to qualitatively distinguish between aerosol pollution within the planetary boundary layer and the free troposphere. We summarize the scope, limitations, and suggestions for scientific applications of surface level aerosol concentrations specific to wildfire emissions and smoke plumes using these novel NASA MODIS and VIIRS aerosol products.

Plume injection height↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Pacific Northwest Heat Wave of 25–30 June 2021: Synoptic/Mesoscale Conditions and Climate Perspective

Abstract An unprecedented heat wave occurred over the Pacific Northwest and southwest Canada on 25–30 June 2021, resulting in all-time temperature records that greatly exceeded previous record maximum temperatures. The impacts were substantial, including several hundred deaths, thousands of hospitalizations, a major wildfire in Lytton, British Columbia, Canada, and severe damage to regional vegetation. Several factors came together to produce this extreme event: a record-breaking midtropospheric ridge over British Columbia in the optimal location, record-breaking midtropospheric temperatures, strong subsidence in the lower atmosphere, low-level easterly flow that produced downslope warming on regional terrain and the removal of cooler marine air, an approaching low-level trough that enhanced downslope flow, the occurrence at a time of maximum insolation, and drier-than-normal soil moisture. It is shown that all-time-record temperatures have not become more frequent and that annual high temperatures only increased at the rate of baseline global warming. Although anthropogenic warming may have contributed as much as 1°C to the event, there is little evidence of further amplification from increasing greenhouse gases. Weather forecasts were excellent for this event, with highly accurate predictions of the extreme temperatures. Significance Statement This paper describes the atmospheric evolution that produced an extreme heat wave over the Pacific Northwest during June 2021 and puts this event into historical perspective.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
NASA NTRS1988

Multi-year global climatic effects of atmospheric dust from large bolide impacts

The global climatic effects of dust generated by the impact of a 10 km-diameter bolide was simulated using a one-dimensional (vertical only) globally-averaged climate model by Pollack et al. The goal of the simulation is to examine the regional climate effects, including the possibility of coastal refugia, generated by a global dust cloud in a model having realistic geographic resolution. The climate model assumes the instantaneous appearance of a global stratospheric dust cloud with initial optical depth of 10,000. The time history of optical depth decreases according to the detailed calculations of Pollack et al., reaching an optical depth of unity at day 160, and subsequently decreasing with an e-folding time of 1 year. The simulation is carried out for three years in order to examine the atmospheric effects and recovery over several seasons. The simulation does not include any effects of NOx, CO2, or wildfire smoke injections that may accompany the creation of the dust cloud. The global distribution of surface temperature changes, freezing events, precipitation and soil moisture effects and sea ice increases will be discussed.

Thompson, Starley L.↗
NASA NTRS2013

PHyTIR - A Prototype Thermal Infrared Radiometer

This paper describes the PHyTIR (Prototype HyspIRI Thermal Infrared Radiometer) instrument, which is the engineering model for the proposed HyspIRI (Hyperspectral Infrared Imager) earth observing instrument. The HyspIRI mission would be comprised of the HyspIRI TIR (Thermal Infrared Imager), and a VSWIR (Visible Short-Wave Infra-Red Imaging Spectrometer). Both instruments would be used to address key science questions related to the earth's carbon cycle, ecosystems, climate, and solid earth properties. Data gathering of volcanic activities, earthquakes, wildfires, water use and availability, urbanization, and land surface compositions and changes, would aid the predictions and evaluations of such events and the impact they create. Even though the proposed technology for the HyspIRI imager is mature, the PHyTIR prototype is needed to advance the technology levels for several of the instrument's key components, and to reduce risks, in particular to validate 1) the higher sensitivity, spatial resolution, and higher throughput required for this focal plane array, 2) the pointing accuracy, 2) the characteristics of several spectral channels, and 4) the use of ambient temperature optics. The PHyTIR telescope consists of the focal plane assembly that is housed within a cold housing located inside a vacuum enclosure; all mounted to a bulkhead, and an optical train that consists of 3 powered mirrors; extending to both sides of the bulkhead. A yoke connects the telescope to a scan mirror. The rotating mirror enables to scan- a large track on the ground. This structure is supported by kinematic mounts, linking the telescope assembly to a base plate that would also become the spacecraft interface for HyspIRI. The focal plane's cooling units are also mounted to the base plate, as is an overall enclosure that has two viewing ports with large exterior baffles, shielding the focal plane from incoming stray light. PHyTIR's electronics is distributed inside and near the vacuum enclosure, and in a nearby rack. The data acquisition technique would be to take measurements over a 51deg wide swath in the cross spacecraft velocity direction, which is brought into view through the rotating scan mirror. A landscape mosaic thus can be assembled by overlaying rows of measurements. The paper briefly outlines the proposed HyspIRI mission and its data acquisition technique; it then describes the prototype PHyTIR instrument.

Space Instrument↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Wildfire Emission Transport and Its Impact on the Local Air Quality – Case Study Example from the LISTOS Campaign

The high O3 concentration and large aerosol backscatter were measured in New York City(NYC) region and Connecticut (CT) coastline between August 15-16, 2018 during the Long Island Sound Tropospheric Ozone Study (LISTOS) campaign. Two TOLNet ozone lidar systems, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Tropospheric Ozone Differential Absorption Lidar (GSFC TROPOZ DIAL)and Langley Research Center (LaRC) Mobile Ozone Lidar (LMOL),were used to obtain vertical and temporal variation of local O3 concentration. The airborne High Altitude Lidar Observatory (HALO) system was used to detect the regional aerosol characteristic during this episode. The complex relationship between ozone and aerosol characteristics of wildfire emission layers was investigated. The HYSPLIT back-trajectory of the measured air parcel shows that the increase of the O3 concentration and aerosol backscatter are attributed to the significant wildfires in the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia regions during August 2018. Through correlation analyses, unique clustering relationships are identified between ozone and aerosol for different air mass types. This case study is further investigated in relation to satellite data from MODIS, MISR and CALIPSO to characterize plume behavior during transport. The importance of wildfire emission transport will be discussed in context of its impact to surface air quality at significant distances from fire events.

Liqiao Lei↗
DOE OSTI2025

Managing ecosystem damage from extreme events

Large disturbances to ecosystems can severely impact the stability of a region's natural resources, habitats, and outdoor recreation. Because extreme events can be large and relatively infrequent, they test institutional capacity to support recovery and restoration. Here, when hurricanes and other large-scale disturbances like wildfires occur, much of the impacted landscape receives little to no active management. Ecosystems are often allowed to either recover or transition without much direct intervention, and successional dynamics are sometimes altered by novel invasive species, management history, or other environmental changes. Recovery and restoration are especially challenging for landscapes with highly fragmented private ownership, such as the forests of the eastern US. Acting alone, non-industrial private forest landowners have little capacity to effectively respond to unexpected forest loss and to oversee forest recovery, as the scale of actions needed after extreme events may require cooperation across ownerships or jurisdictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

Wildfire Smoke Particle Properties and Evolution, From Space-Based Multi-Angle Imaging II: The Williams Flats Fire during the FIREX-AQ Campaign

Although the characteristics of biomass burning events and the ambient ecosystem determine emitted smoke composition, the conditions that modulate the partitioning of black carbon (BC) and brown carbon (BrC) formation are not well understood, nor are the spatial or temporal frequency of factors driving smoke particle evolution, such as hydration, coagulation, and oxidation, all of which impact smoke radiative forcing. In situ data from surface observation sites and aircraft field campaigns offer deep insight into the optical, chemical, and microphysical traits of biomass burning (BB) smoke aerosols, such as single scattering albedo (SSA) and size distribution, but cannot by themselves provide robust statistical characterization of both emitted and evolved particles. Data from the NASA Earth Observing System’s Multi-Angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument can provide at least a partial picture of BB particle properties and their evolution downwind, once properly validated. Here we use in situ data from the joint NOAA/NASA 2019 Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments Experiment-Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) field campaign to assess the strengths and limitations of MISR-derived constraints on particle size, shape, light-absorption, and its spectral slope, as well as plume height and associated wind vectors. Based on the satellite observations, we also offer inferences about aging mechanisms effecting downwind particle evolution, such as gravitational settling, oxidation, secondary particle formation, and the combination of particle aggregation and condensational growth. This work builds upon our previous study, adding confidence to our interpretation of the remote-sensing data based on an expanded suite of in situ measurements for validation. The satellite and in situ measurements offer similar characterizations of particle property evolution as a function of smoke age for the 06 August Williams Flats Fire, and most of the key differences in particle size and absorption can be attributed to differences in sampling and changes in the plume geometry between sampling times. Whereas the aircraft data provide validation for the MISR retrievals, the satellite data offer a spatially continuous mapping of particle properties over the plume, which helps identify trends in particle property downwind evolution that are ambiguous in the sparsely sampled aircraft transects. The MISR data record is more than two decades long, offering future opportunities to study regional wildfire plume behavior statistically, where aircraft data are limited or entirely lacking.

biomass burning↗
DOE OSTI2023

Guest Editorial: Special Section on Sustainable Energy for Enhancing Grid Resiliency

Extreme weather threatens lives, disables communities, and devastates energy generation, transmission, and distribution systems. These extreme events are likely to become more frequent or more intense due to climate change. Energy networks have shown significant vulnerability during record hurricanes, deadly heat waves, destructive wildfires, and winter storms in the past few years. Because of the energy transition process, modern power grids will feature a high penetration level of the use of renewable resources. The adoption of renewable energy and the rise of omnidirectional power delivery mean that our energy network is more decentralized than ever. In this new environment, grid operation becomes more complex, and achieving resiliency is more difficult than in the past. Many utilities are seeking the latest technologies to improve energy security and responsiveness to severe events. On the one hand, sustainable energy resources can provide emergency power and assist grid restoration in disastrous events. On the other hand, their volatility, susceptibility, interdependency, and other unique features must be carefully considered when being used for grid resilience enhancement. This special section brings together 22 papers that range from innovative research advances tackling fundamental challenges of achieving more resilient grids to real-world demonstrations of leveraging sustainable energy resources to enhance grid resiliency. These papers can be categorized into three groups.

climate change↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-ignition fire complexes drive extreme fire years and impacts

Climate change is intensifying fire behavior, with the largest and fastest-spreading fires causing the greatest impacts on people and ecosystems. Yet the mechanisms driving variability and trends in large fires remain poorly understood. Using 12-hour satellite-derived fire tracking data from 2012 to 2023, we show that the merging of separate ignitions into multi-ignition complexes is a key process amplifying fire size and destructive potential across temperate and boreal ecoregions. Multi-ignition fires account for 31% of the burned area in California and 59% in the Arctic-boreal domain, spread faster and persist longer than single-ignition fires, and disproportionately contribute to extreme fire years in California, Canada, and Siberia. They also generate stronger atmospheric feedbacks, produce more pyrocumulonimbus events, and strain firefighting capacity by dispersing suppression resources. Recognizing and accounting for fire-merging dynamics are critical for improving wildfire prediction, risk assessment, and management.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

America Resilient Climate Conference

On April 14, 2021, scientists, policymakers, and other interested parties from research institutes, academia, and other organizations gathered together virtually at the America Resilient Climate Conference to discuss one of the most pressing challenges of the 21st century: building resilience to climate change. Climate change affects the security and health of all Americans. Coastal areas are enduring more frequent and severe flooding due to sea level rise and storm surge; western states and Alaska have experienced increasingly devastating wildfires, driven in part by hotter, drier, and longer fire seasons; and communities across the nation have suffered through extreme precipitation events and heat waves. Even if emissions are reduced aggressively in the near future, the world—and the United States—will continue to feel the impacts of climate change for decades to come, due to the continued accumulation of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. Consequently, it is essential to act now to protect natural and human assets from the gradual—as well as extreme—impacts of a changing climate. To build resilient communities, leaders and community members need science-based information about the potential impacts climate change will have decades into the future and for specific regions. Therefore, it is essential to develop high-resolution climate models that can project both various climate impacts and the interactions between earth system variables and humans down to regional and local scales. Collecting and curating data for such models and their computational requirements poses large challenges. In the future, artificial intelligence will be needed to increase their accuracy and reduce associated uncertainties. The investments in Earth system science and artificial intelligence made by the U.S. Department of Energy and other federal entities will be essential in addressing these challenges.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

UTM and D-NET: NASA and JAXA's Collaborative Research on Integrating Small UAS with Disaster Response Efforts

Natural disasters, such as flooding, wildfire, hurricane, tornadoes, earthquakes and tsunamis, pose challenges in preserving human life and minimizing the damages to a region. During catastrophic events, timely response of disaster relief personnel, an efficient deployment of resources in the recovery effort, and coordinated information sharing amongst different relief agencies can make a substantial difference in responding to those impacted by the disaster. Many relief activities currently utilize both ground personnel and manned airborne assets during different phases of the disaster response. Typically, multiple organizations support relief activities and this often creates logistics coordination challenges between agencies which can result in wasted time or resources. The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has been developing an "Integrated aircraft operation system for disaster relief (D-NET)", which assists collection and sharing of disaster information through the integrated operation of aircraft such as helicopters, aircraft, and satellites, for efficient and safe rescue operations by disaster relief aircraft. Due to the advancement in unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) technologies, public safety organizations have started incorporating small UAS (sUAS) as an asset in their disasters response activities. To address the airspace integration challenges of the influx of sUAS in the United States the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), under the UAS Traffic Management (UTM) project, has been engaged in research to enable large-scale commercial applications of sUAS operating in low altitude airspace. This paper presents the integration of D-NET, which incorporate sUAS in the planning, information sharing, and operation support of disasters response activities, and UTM, which provides airspace management to enable large scale high density operations. The integration of the DNET and UTM systems enables coordination, data sharing, and airspace management to improve the timeliness of the disaster response, enable relief organization to reduce cost and overhead by using UAS assets and still maintain airspace safety during the relief activities.

UTM↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Challenges in Observing, Modeling, and Forecasting the June 2023 Smoke Event Over the Northeast United States

In the first week of May 2023, boreal Canada began an early start to the biomass burning season when fires erupted across Alberta and western Saskatchewan. Smoke entered the troposphere and spread across the United States as biomass burning emissions in Canada quadrupled the prior maximum since the onset of the MODIS satellite record. Adding to the already existing smoke, wildfires ignited in Quebec on June 2, 2023, producing a heavy plume of aerosol over the northeastern part of the continent. Meteorological factors, including an area of low pressure situated, nearly stationary, over Maine, transported the smoke into a densely populated corridor containing the cities of Washington, DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, and New York City. Air quality alerts became widespread as near-surface levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exceeded harmful levels due the low altitude of the smoke plume. Forecasting the smoke transport and impacts of such events requires a complex combination of observed initial conditions for meteorology and aerosols, knowledge of the emissions from wildfires, and a state-of-the-art Earth System model that couples these components together. Using a case-study perspective with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS), challenges associated with near real time forecasting of the smoke plume are presented. Analyzed and forecasted aerosol optical depth will be evaluated using available satellite and AERONET observations, while surface aerosol will be assessed relative to observations of PM2.5. Lacking real time estimates of biomass burning emissions for inputs to our forecast model, particular attention is given to the use of day-old biomass burning emissions throughout the forecast period covering the first ten days in June 2023, and the resulting reduction in forecast skill will be quantified.

Allison Collow↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Challenges in Observing, Modeling, and Forecasting the June 2023 Smoke Event over the Northeast United States

In the first week of May 2023, boreal Canada began an early start to the biomass burning season when fires erupted across Alberta and western Saskatchewan. Smoke entered the troposphere and spread across the United States as biomass burning emissions in Canada quadrupled the prior maximum since the onset of the MODIS satellite record. Adding to the already existing smoke, wildfires ignited in Quebec on June 2, 2023, producing a heavy plume of aerosol over the northeastern part of the continent. Meteorological factors, including an area of low pressure situated, nearly stationary, over Maine, transported the smoke into a densely populated corridor containing the cities of Washington, DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, and New York City. Air quality alerts became widespread as near-surface levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exceeded harmful levels due the low altitude of the smoke plume. Forecasting the smoke transport and impacts of such events requires a complex combination of observed initial conditions for meteorology and aerosols, knowledge of the emissions from wildfires, and a state-of-the-art Earth System model that couples these components together. Using a case-study perspective with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS ), challenges associated with near real time forecasting of the smoke plume are presented. Analyzed and forecasted aerosol optical depth will be evaluated using available satellite and AERONET observations, while surface aerosol will be assessed relative to observations of PM2.5. Lacking real time estimates of biomass burning emissions for inputs to our forecast model, particular attention is given to the use of day-old biomass burning emissions throughout the forecast period covering the first ten days in June 2023, and the resulting reduction in forecast skill will be quantified.

Allison Collow↗