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At least 217 records · Page 12

On the evaluation of expected performance cost for partially observed closed-loop stochastic systems

New methods are presented for evaluating the expected performance cost of partially observed closed-loop stochastic systems. When the variances of the process statistics are small, a linearized model of the closed-loop stochastic system is defined for which the expected cost can be evaluated by recursion on a set of purely deterministic difference equations. When the variances of the process statistics are large, the linearized model can be used in the control variate method of variance reduction for reducing the number of sample paths required for effective Monte Carlo estimation.

Bayard, D. S.↗

Deep Mapping of Small Solar System Bodies with Galactic Cosmic Ray Secondary Particle Showers

Galactic cosmic rays rain steadily from all directions onto asteroids and comets. The interaction of these high-energy ions produces a cascade of secondary particles, including muons, which can penetrate the solid interiors of small solar system bodies. Muons, which are produced in abundance in Earth's atmosphere, have been used to image large structures on Earth, including the Great Pyramids and the interior of volcanoes. In this study, we demonstrate that the transmitted flux of muons is sensitive to the interior density structure of asteroids and comets, less than a few hundred meters in diameter. Muonography has the potential to fill a critical gap in our knowledge of the deep interiors of small bodies, providing information needed for planetary defense, in situ resource utilization, and planetary science. We use Monte Carlo codes (MCNPX and FLUKA), which accurately model galactic cosmic ray showers, to explore systematic variations in the production of muons in solid surfaces. Results of these calculations confirm the scaling of muon production in Earth's atmosphere to solid regolith materials, as predicted by a simple, semi-empirical model. Muons are primarily produced in the top meter of the regoliths of asteroids and comets. Their rate of production is over three orders of magnitude lower than in Earth's atmosphere and depends strongly on regolith density. In practice, the use of muonography to characterize the interiors of small solar system bodies must overcome their low rate of production and their dependence on regolith density, which can vary over the surface of asteroids and comets. We show that interior contrast can be resolved using a muon telescope (hodoscope) with about 1 sq m aperture with integration times ranging from hours to weeks. Design concepts for a practical hodoscope that could be deployed in situ or on an orbiting spacecraft, are described. Regolith density within the top meter of an asteroid can be determined from radar observations. A concept for a pilot mission that combines remote radar measurements with in situ muonography of a near-Earth asteroid is presented. Perceived challenges and next steps for the development of the concept are described.

Prettyman, T. H.↗

Uncertainty quantification in elastic constants of SiC f /SiC m tubular composites using global sensitivity analysis

Silicon carbide fiber and silicon carbide matrix (SiC f /SiC m ) tubes produced through the chemical vapor infiltration process have become a candidate cladding material in nuclear applications. The performance of this composite is influenced by many variables such as braiding angle, porosity, material properties, etc., which vary over a range of values due to the inherent fluctuations in the manufacturing process. In this study, the variability in elastic constants of SiC f /SiC m composite has been quantified through multiscale finite element (FE) simulations, variable screening, and high-fidelity surrogate modeling. The key variables dominantly affecting the elastic constants of SiC f /SiC m tubes were identified using global sensitivity analysis. A surrogate to the high-fidelity FE-based model was used in Monte Carlo simulations to generate a hundred thousand samples from which the uncertainty in elastic constants was assessed. It turned out that the coefficient of variation was less than 10%.

Materials Science↗

Monte Carlo MP2-F12 for Noncovalent Interactions: The C 60 Dimer

A scalable stochastic algorithm is presented that can evaluate explicitly correlated (F12) second-order many-body perturbation (MP2) energies of weak, noncovalent, intermolecular interactions. It first transforms the formulas of the MP2 and F12 energy differences into a short sum of high-dimensional integrals of Green’s functions in real space and imaginary time. Furthermore, these integrals are then evaluated by the Monte Carlo method augmented by parallel execution, redundant-walker convergence acceleration, direct-sampling autocorrelation elimination, and control-variate error reduction. By sharing electron-pair walkers across the supermolecule and its subsystems spanned by the joint basis set, the statistical uncertainty is reduced by one to 2 orders of magnitude in the MP2 binding energy corrected for the basis-set incompleteness and superposition errors. The method predicts the MP2-F12/aug-cc-pVDZ binding energy of 19.1 ± 4.0 kcal mol –1 for the C 60 dimer at the center distance of 9.748 Å.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Simulation and Analyses of Stage Separation Two-Stage Reusable Launch Vehicles

NASA has initiated the development of methodologies, techniques and tools needed for analysis and simulation of stage separation of next generation reusable launch vehicles. As a part of this activity, ConSep simulation tool is being developed which is a MATLAB-based front-and-back-end to the commercially available ADAMS(registered Trademark) solver, an industry standard package for solving multi-body dynamic problems. This paper discusses the application of ConSep to the simulation and analysis of staging maneuvers of two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO) Bimese reusable launch vehicles, one staging at Mach 3 and the other at Mach 6. The proximity and isolated aerodynamic database were assembled using the data from wind tunnel tests conducted at NASA Langley Research Center. The effects of parametric variations in mass, inertia, flight path angle, altitude from their nominal values at staging were evaluated. Monte Carlo runs were performed for Mach 3 staging to evaluate the sensitivity to uncertainties in aerodynamic coefficients.

Pamadi, Bandu N.↗

Aerocapture Performance Analysis of A Venus Exploration Mission

A performance analysis of a Discovery Class Venus Exploration Mission in which aerocapture is used to capture a spacecraft into a 300km polar orbit for a two year science mission has been conducted to quantify its performance. A preliminary performance assessment determined that a high heritage 70 sphere-cone rigid aeroshell with a 0.25 lift to drag ratio has adequate control authority to provide an entry flight path angle corridor large enough for the mission s aerocapture maneuver. A 114 kilograms per square meter ballistic coefficient reference vehicle was developed from the science requirements and the preliminary assessment s heating indicators and deceleration loads. Performance analyses were conducted for the reference vehicle and for sensitivity studies on vehicle ballistic coefficient and maximum bank rate. The performance analyses used a high fidelity flight simulation within a Monte Carlo executive to define the aerocapture heating environment and deceleration loads and to determine mission success statistics. The simulation utilized the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST) that was modified to include Venus specific atmospheric and planet models, aerodynamic characteristics, and interplanetary trajectory models. In addition to Venus specific models, an autonomous guidance system, HYPAS, and a pseudo flight controller were incorporated in the simulation. The Monte Carlo analyses incorporated a reference set of approach trajectory delivery errors, aerodynamic uncertainties, and atmospheric density variations. The reference performance analysis determined the reference vehicle achieves 100% successful capture and has a 99.87% probability of attaining the science orbit with a 90 meters per second delta V budget for post aerocapture orbital adjustments. A ballistic coefficient trade study conducted with reference uncertainties determined that the 0.25 L/D vehicle can achieve 100% successful capture with a ballistic coefficient of 228 kilograms per square meter and that the increased ballistic coefficient increases post aerocapture V budget to 134 meters per second for a 99.87% probability of attaining the science orbit. A trade study on vehicle bank rate determined that the 0.25 L/D vehicle can achieve 100% successful capture when the maximum bank rate is decreased from 30 deg/s to 20 deg/s. The decreased bank rate increases post aerocapture delta V budget to 102 meters per second for a 99.87% probability of attaining the science orbit.

Starr, Brett R.↗

Simulation and Analyses of Stage Separation of Two-Stage Reusable Launch Vehicles

NASA has initiated the development of methodologies, techniques and tools needed for analysis and simulation of stage separation of next generation reusable launch vehicles. As a part of this activity, ConSep simulation tool is being developed which is a MATLAB-based front-and-back-end to the commercially available ADAMS(Registerd TradeMark) solver, an industry standard package for solving multi-body dynamic problems. This paper discusses the application of ConSep to the simulation and analysis of staging maneuvers of two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO) Bimese reusable launch vehicles, one staging at Mach 3 and the other at Mach 6. The proximity and isolated aerodynamic database were assembled using the data from wind tunnel tests conducted at NASA Langley Research Center. The effects of parametric variations in mass, inertia, flight path angle, altitude from their nominal values at staging were evaluated. Monte Carlo runs were performed for Mach 3 staging to evaluate the sensitivity to uncertainties in aerodynamic coefficients.

Pamadi, Bandu N.↗

An intermediate model for fitting triplet–triplet annihilation in phosphorescent organic light emitting diode materials

Triplet–triplet annihilation (TTA) is one of the primary contributors to efficiency roll-off and permanent material degradation in phosphorescent organic light-emitting diodes. Here, the two limiting case models typically used to quantify this quenching mechanism are multi-step Dexter and single-step Förster, which, respectively, assume ideal Fickian diffusion or perfect trapping of triplet excitons. For device-relevant guest doping levels (typically 5–12 vol. %), both significant diffusion of excitons and trapping due to spatial and energetic disorder exist, so neither conventional model fits experimental data well. We develop and validate an intermediate TTA model, which is a weighted average of the limiting cases of pure radiative decay (no TTA) and multi-step Dexter based TTA that returns an effective TTA rate constant and a parameter quantifying the portion of well-isolated excitons. Kinetic Monte-Carlo simulations and time-resolved photoluminescence measurements of an archetype host–guest system demonstrate that our intermediate model provides significantly improved fits with more realistic physical values, is more robust to variations in experimental conditions, and provides an analysis framework for the effects of trapping on TTA.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

A Data-Driven Global Sensitivity Analysis Framework for Three-Phase Distribution System with PVs

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of distribution systems with respect to stochastic PV and load variations plays an important role in designing optimal voltage control schemes. This paper proposes a data-driven framework for GSA of distribution systems. In particular, two representative surrogate modeling-based approaches are developed, including the traditional Gaussian process-based and the analysis of variance (ANOVA) kernel ones. The key idea is to develop a surrogate model that captures the hidden global relationship between voltage and real and reactive power injections from the historical data. With the surrogate model, the Sobol indices can be conveniently calculated through either the sampling-based method or the analytical method to assess the global sensitivity of voltage to variations of PV and load power injections. The sampling-based method approximates the Sobol indices using Monte Carlo simulations while the analytical method calculates them by resorting to the ANOVA expansion framework. Comparison results with other model-based GSA methods on the unbalanced three-phase IEEE 37-bus and 123-bus distribution systems show that the proposed framework can achieve much higher computational efficiency with negligible loss of accuracy. The results on a real 240-node distribution system using actual smart meter data further validate the feasibility and scalability of the proposed framework.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Temperature dependence of rotational relaxation in shock waves of nitrogen

Computations are carried out for one-dimensional shock waves of diatomic nitrogen, using the direct simulation Monte Carlo method. It was found that the reciprocal shock thickness varies with the upstream temperature condition. This variation was also observed in the experimental data and was simulated numerically by using the temperature-dependent expression for the rotational collision number.

Boyd, I. D.↗

Systematics in the Electron Spectrum Measured by ATIC

An analysis of different parameters to separate electrons from protons in the ATIC experiment has been performed. Five separate discriminants were studied by different Monte Carlo programs, leading to a variety of results. Application to the ATIC data indicates the range of variation possible in the interpretation of the data. The results of this analysis, when compared with the published results [5], show good agreement in the most interesting region of energy (from 90 GeV to 600 GeV). The measured electron spectrum is compared with the recent data reported by Fermi/LAT, and there is no major disagreement between ATIC s results and Fermi/LAT. Finally, possible systematics-free, short energy scale features of the ATIC electron spectrum are mentioned. Keywords: ATIC, electron spectrum, fine structure

Panov, A. D.↗

Small Body Landing Accuracy Using In-Situ Navigation

Spacecraft landings on small bodies (asteroids and comets) can require target accuracies too stringent to be met using ground-based navigation alone, especially if specific landing site requirements must be met for safety or to meet science goals. In-situ optical observations coupled with onboard navigation processing can meet the tighter accuracy requirements to enable such missions. Recent developments in deep space navigation capability include a self-contained autonomous navigation system (used in flight on three missions) and a landmark tracking system (used experimentally on the Japanese Hayabusa mission). The merging of these two technologies forms a methodology to perform autonomous onboard navigation around small bodies. This paper presents an overview of these systems, as well as the results from Monte Carlo studies to quantify the achievable landing accuracies by using these methods. Sensitivity of the results to variations in spacecraft maneuver execution error, attitude control accuracy and unmodeled forces are examined. Cases for two bodies, a small asteroid and on a mid-size comet, are presented.

in-situ navigation↗

The Implementation of Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Space Launch System Vehicle Design

As NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) approaches first launch, the design has matured to a point where the manufacturing uncertainty has decreased now that many of the components of the launch vehicle have been manufactured and the flight engines have been successfully tested. Prior to this point, a method was required to qualify and capture the impact of the differences between simulation and reality, as well as any uncertainties in the SLS design. Two primary categories of uncertainty arise during the launch vehicle design process. The first represents flight-day uncertainties including dispersions due to winds and temperatures. These are typically examined by performing a Monte Carlo on 6 Degree of Freedom (6-DOF) simulations. The second category of uncertainties represents any manufacturing variations that are present at the individual component level of the launch vehicle design. These variations are constructed using statistical masses and tend to become better understood and refined as the design cycle matures, finally resulting in the launch vehicle as constructed and tested.

Stein, W. B.↗

Probability Bounds Analysis Applied to Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle Nonlinearity

The Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) Program Orion vehicle finite element model (FEM) was updated based on a modal test performed by Lockheed Martin. Due to nonlinearity observed in the test results, linear low force level (LL) and high force level (HL) FEMs were developed for use during various Space Launch System (SLS) flight regimes depending on expected forcing levels. Uncertainty models were derived for the combined MPCV and MPCV Stage Adaptor LL and HL Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) components based on the MPCV structural test article Configuration 4 modal test-analysis correlation results. Subsequently, system-level uncertainty quantification analyses were performed using both models for various SLS flight configurations to determine the impact of the nonlinearity on important system metrics. The system metrics included both transfer functions associated with attitude control and dynamic loads associated with aerodynamic buffeting during ascent. In each case, an independent Monte Carlo (MC) analysis was performed, and no attempt was made to combine the results. The Hybrid Parametric Variation (HPV) method was used to develop the LL and HL MPCV HCB uncertainty models. The HPV method provides both parametric and non-parametric components of uncertainty. The non-parametric uncertainty accounts for the difference in model-form between the linearized analytical model and the corresponding linearized component test results in the form of mode shapes and frequencies at that force level. This linear model-form uncertainty is implemented in the HPV method using random matrix theory. However, the HPV uncertainty models developed for the linear LL and HL MPCV components do not account for the nonlinearity in the MPCV. With respect to the linearized models, this nonlinearity is also an uncertainty in model form, but in this case, it must be treated independently as an epistemic uncertainty. It represents a lack of knowledge, in contrast to an aleatory uncertainty due to the randomness of a variable. In the case of an epistemic variable, the true value is unknown, only the interval within which it lies is known. Epistemic uncertainty can be reduced with increased knowledge, while in general, aleatory uncertainty cannot. This work combines the epistemic uncertainty due to the MPCV nonlinearity with the parametric and non-parametric uncertainty within the HPV method using a second order propagation approach. The LL and HL test data is augmented with surrogate test data derived from a nonlinear MPCV representation. The impact of the MPCV nonlinearity on system response statistics is determined using a series of cumulative distribution functions in the form of a horsetail plot, or p-box. This results in an interval of probabilities for a specific response value, or an interval of response values at a specific probability.

Daniel C Kammer↗

Preliminary Monte Carlo and Thermal Hydraulic Analysis using a Hybrid ETF-Corrected-Diffusion Prediction Block

This paper builds upon previous work to accelerate the Picard iteration (PI) method typically applied for coupled Monte Carlo-Thermal hydraulic (MC-TH) solutions. Previously, the use of the generalized transfer functions (GTFs) to predict variation in macroscopic cross sections following a perturbation in TH properties was demonstrated for a subset of simple 3D problems. In addition, the reduced-order transport prediction block relied on the first order perturbation (FOP) method, which was shown to have computational overheads. Recent work replaced the FOP block with a 1-group nodal diffusion solver to eliminate these overheads. While the use of diffusion is desirable for large-scale problems, the new solver introduces significant homogenization error. This work aims to address this issue by using the Jacobian-Free Newton Krylov (JFNK) method to generate a set of super homogenization (SPH) factors to improve the accuracy of the diffusion solution. The SPH factors will be used in conjunction with an improved cross section prediction method – the expanded transfer function (ETF) method – to produce a highly accurate flux prediction for an axial 1D boiling water reactor (BWR) pincell following a large perturbation in moderator density. The ETF-corrected diffusion (ETF-CD) block is shown to be highly accurate for the 1D test case. Future work will investigate the accuracy of the method for a realistic 3D pressurized water reactor core.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Ensemble approximate control variate estimators: Applications to multi-fidelity importance sampling.

The recent growth in multifidelity uncertainty quantification has given rise to a large set of variance reduction techniques that leverage information from model ensembles to provide variance reduction for estimates of the statistics of a high-fidelity model. In this paper we provide two contributions: (1) we utilize an ensemble estimator to account for uncertainties in the optimal weights of approximate control variate (ACV) approaches and derive lower bounds on the number of samples required to guarantee variance reduction; and (2) we extend an existing multifidelity importance sampling (MFIS) scheme to leverage control variates. Our approach directly addresses a limitation of many multifidelity sampling strategies that require the usage of pilot samples to estimate covariances. As such we make significant progress towards both increasing the practicality of approximate control variates—for instance, by accounting for the effect of pilot samples—and using multifidelity approaches more effectively for estimating low-probability events. The numerical results indicate our hybrid MFIS-ACV estimator achieves up to 50% improvement in variance reduction over the existing state-of-the-art MFIS estimator, which had already shown an outstanding convergence rate compared to the Monte Carlo method, on several problems of computational mechanics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

TAUOLA update for decay channels with e + e – pairs in the final state

With the arrival of high luminosity B-factories like the Belle II experiment, τ decay measurements have become more precise than ever, allowing rarer processes to be explored, and finer details of τ decays to be studied. These are important to understand the spectrum of intermediate particles produced in τ decays. Therefore Monte Carlo generators, like the TAUOLA program, have to facilitate precision analysis as well as confront new models that constantly emerge with the availability of high statistics experimental data. New decay channels and models may lead to large variation of matrix elements size within the available phase space, as in the case when e + e - pairs are present in final state. It requires appropriate presampler of the phase space generator and a proper documentation to help users introduce their own models. While releasing a new update, it is important for the TAUOLA Monte Carlo library to maintain the general structure of the previous versions to preserve backward compatibility. The aim is to minimize changes from the user perspective. Finally, this paper presents a demonstration of new models implementation facilitated by the current update.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Probabilistic Analysis of a Composite Crew Module

An approach for conducting reliability-based analysis (RBA) of a Composite Crew Module (CCM) is presented. The goal is to identify and quantify the benefits of probabilistic design methods for the CCM and future space vehicles. The coarse finite element model from a previous NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) project is used as the baseline deterministic analysis model to evaluate the performance of the CCM using a strength-based failure index. The first step in the probabilistic analysis process is the determination of the uncertainty distributions for key parameters in the model. Analytical data from water landing simulations are used to develop an uncertainty distribution, but such data were unavailable for other load cases. The uncertainty distributions for the other load scale factors and the strength allowables are generated based on assumed coefficients of variation. Probability of first-ply failure is estimated using three methods: the first order reliability method (FORM), Monte Carlo simulation, and conditional sampling. Results for the three methods were consistent. The reliability is shown to be driven by first ply failure in one region of the CCM at the high altitude abort load set. The final predicted probability of failure is on the order of 10-11 due to the conservative nature of the factors of safety on the deterministic loads.

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