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DOE OSTI2025

Analyzing and Exploring Training Recipes for Large-Scale Transformer-Based Weather Prediction

Abstract The rapid rise of deep learning (DL) in numerical weather prediction (NWP) has led to a proliferation of models which forecast atmospheric variables with comparable or superior skill than traditional physics-based NWP. However, among these leading DL models, there is a wide variance in both the training settings and architecture used. Further, the lack of thorough ablation studies makes it hard to discern which components are most critical to success. In this work, we show that it is possible to attain high forecast skill even with relatively off-the-shelf architectures, simple training procedures, and moderate compute budgets. Specifically, we train a minimally modified Swin Transformer V2 (SwinV2) on ERA5 data and find that it attains superior skill in terms of mean-square errors of deterministic forecasts when compared against the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). Almost all DL–NWP systems share a core set of hyperparameters and design decisions. To aid and expedite future DL–NWP research, we present an in-depth, systematic exploration of different loss functions, model sizes and depths, patch sizes, and multistep training objectives. We also examine the model performance with metrics beyond the typical accuracy (ACC) and RMSE and investigate how the performance scales with model size. Through our open-source code, scoring pipelines, and models, we share our findings on key aspects of the training pipeline. These ablations reduce the necessity for expensive hyperparameter tuning and lower the barrier to entry for future DL–NWP research. Significance Statement This study investigates the potential of using large-scale transformer-based models for weather prediction, showing that it is possible to achieve high forecast accuracy with simpler, off-the-shelf architectures. By training a minimally modified SwinV2 transformer on ERA5 data, we show that the model achieves competitive forecast skill in terms of mean-square error for key variables, outperforming the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) at all lead times. Our findings suggest that effective training strategies, such as multistep fine-tuning and channel-weighted losses, significantly enhance the model’s performance. However, we also highlight that these improvements come with trade-offs in other areas, such as ensemble spread and high-frequency spatial detail. This work highlights the promise of deep learning in improving weather forecasts, which could lead to better preparedness and response to weather events, ultimately benefiting society by providing more reliable weather predictions.

Willard, Jared D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Labo↗

NASA NTRS1987

Analysis and interpretation of satellite fragmentation data

The velocity perturbations of the fragments of a satellite can shed valuable information regarding the nature and intensity of the fragmentation. A feasibility study on calculating the velocity perturbations from existing equations was carried out by analyzing 23 major documented fragmentation events. It was found that whereas the calculated values of the radial components of the velocity change were often unusually high, those in the two other orthogonal directions were mostly reasonable. Since the uncertainties in the radial component necessarily translate into uncertainties in the total velocity change, it is suggested that alternative expressions for the radial component of velocity be sought for the purpose of determining the cause of the fragmentation from the total velocity change. The calculated variances in the velocity perturbations in the two directions orthogonal to the radial vector indicate that they have the smallest values for collision induced breakups and the largest values for low-intensity explosion induced breakups. The corresponding variances for high-intensity explosion induced breakups generally have values intermediate between those of the two extreme categories. A three-dimensional plot of the variances in the two orthogonal velocity perturbations and the plane change angle shows a clear separation between the three major types of breakups. This information is used to reclassify a number of satellite fragmentation events of unknown category.

Tan, Arjun↗

NASA NTRS1989

Physically-based parameterization of spatially variable soil and vegetation using satellite multispectral data

A stochastic-geometric landsurface reflectance model is formulated and tested for the parameterization of spatially variable vegetation and soil at subpixel scales using satellite multispectral images without ground truth. Landscapes are conceptualized as 3-D Lambertian reflecting surfaces consisting of plant canopies, represented by solid geometric figures, superposed on a flat soil background. A computer simulation program is developed to investigate image characteristics at various spatial aggregations representative of satellite observational scales, or pixels. The evolution of the shape and structure of the red-infrared space, or scattergram, of typical semivegetated scenes is investigated by sequentially introducing model variables into the simulation. The analytical moments of the total pixel reflectance, including the mean, variance, spatial covariance, and cross-spectral covariance, are derived in terms of the moments of the individual fractional cover and reflectance components. The moments are applied to the solution of the inverse problem: The estimation of subpixel landscape properties on a pixel-by-pixel basis, given only one multispectral image and limited assumptions on the structure of the landscape. The landsurface reflectance model and inversion technique are tested using actual aerial radiometric data collected over regularly spaced pecan trees, and using both aerial and LANDSAT Thematic Mapper data obtained over discontinuous, randomly spaced conifer canopies in a natural forested watershed. Different amounts of solar backscattered diffuse radiation are assumed and the sensitivity of the estimated landsurface parameters to those amounts is examined.

Jasinski, Michael F.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Investigation of Allan variance for determining noise spectral forms with application to microwave radiometry

An investigation of the Allan variance method as a possible means for characterizing fluctuations in radiometric noise diodes has been performed. The goal is to separate fluctuation components into white noise, flicker noise, and random-walk noise. The primary means is by discrete-time processing, and the study focused primarily on the digital processes involved. Noise satisfying the requirements was generated by direct convolution, fast Fourier transformation (FFT) processing in the time domain, and FFT processing in the frequency domain. Some of the numerous results obtained are presented along with the programs used in the study.

Stanley, William D.↗

NASA NTRS1994

A componential model of human interaction with graphs: 1. Linear regression modeling

Task analyses served as the basis for developing the Mixed Arithmetic-Perceptual (MA-P) model, which proposes (1) that people interacting with common graphs to answer common questions apply a set of component processes-searching for indicators, encoding the value of indicators, performing arithmetic operations on the values, making spatial comparisons among indicators, and repsonding; and (2) that the type of graph and user's task determine the combination and order of the components applied (i.e., the processing steps). Two experiments investigated the prediction that response time will be linearly related to the number of processing steps according to the MA-P model. Subjects used line graphs, scatter plots, and stacked bar graphs to answer comparison questions and questions requiring arithmetic calculations. A one-parameter version of the model (with equal weights for all components) and a two-parameter version (with different weights for arithmetic and nonarithmetic processes) accounted for 76%-85% of individual subjects' variance in response time and 61%-68% of the variance taken across all subjects. The discussion addresses possible modifications in the MA-P model, alternative models, and design implications from the MA-P model.

Gillan, Douglas J.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Life-Prediction Parameters of Sapphire Determined for the Design of a Space Station Combustion Facility Window

To characterize the stress corrosion parameters and predict the life of a sapphire window being considered for use in the International Space Station's Fluids and Combustion Facility, researchers at the NASA Glenn Research Center conducted stress corrosion tests, fracture toughness tests, and reliability analyses, as shown in the figures. Standardized test methods, developed and updated by the author under the auspices of American Society for Testing and Materials, were employed. One interesting finding is that sapphire exhibits a susceptibility to stress corrosion in water similar to that of glass. In addition to generating the stress corrosion parameters and fracture toughness data, closed-form expressions for the variances of the crack growth parameters were derived. The expressions allow confidence bands to be easily placed on life predictions of ceramic components. Brittle materials such as sapphire and quartz are required for windows in a variety of applications such as the Fluids and Combustion Facility. To minimize the launch weight of such facilities, researchers must design the windows to be as lightweight as possible. The safe use of lightweight, brittle windows in structural applications is limited by two factors: low fracture toughness and slow crack growth, or stress corrosion. Stress corrosion of these and other optical materials can occur in relatively common environments, such as humid air. Access to the data has been requested by designers for use in the life prediction of a Northrop Grumman F16 instrument window and a Jet Propulsion Laboratory instrument window. One Space Act Agreement has been formed. Future work includes the measurement of the life of subscale windows.

Salem, Jonathan A.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Deciphering the Spectra of Flowers to Map Landscape-scale Blooming Dynamics

Like leaves, floral coloration is driven by inherent optical properties, which are determined by pigments, scattering structure, and thickness. However, establishing the relative contribution of these factors to canopy spectral signals is usually limited to in-situ observations. Modeling flowering dynamics (e.g., blooming duration, spatial distribution) at the landscape scale may reveal insights into ecological processes and phenological adaptations to environmental changes. Multitemporal visible to shortwave infrared (VSWIR) imaging spectroscopy observations are especially suited for such efforts. Reflectance in this spectral range is sensitive to major flower pigments, flowering phenology traces, and biophysical differences between flowers and other plant parts. We explored how flowers contribute to spectral signals using a time series of imagery from the Airborne Visible InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer - Next Generation (AVIRIS-NG) collected as part of the SBG High-Frequency Time Series (SHIFT) campaign as a case study. Airborne data were collected weekly during the spring of 2022 across two natural reserves in California. Field spectra were gathered from blooming plots at leaf, flower, and canopy levels at two time points during the campaign. The processed data was used to investigate flowering species' spectro-temporal variation and spatial distribution using Spectral Mixture Residual, Gaussian clustering techniques, and a proposed narrow-band flowering index. Linear spectral unmixing allowed the computation of the weighted contribution of four major high-variance endmembers (leaves, flowers, soil, dark) and low-variance residual signal that comprises subtle spectral features used to track biophysical processes. The reflectance residual was projected on a low principal component basis to characterize flowering clusters' variation and spatial distribution based on the Gaussian mixture model, providing an uncertainty metric to assess the results. Mapping flowering events from modeling spectro-temporal dynamics throughout the season, from pre-blooming to post-flowering stages, allowed us to identify gradient variations in spectral features within the VSWIR spectral range linked to flowering pigments. Time series of the Mixture Residual Blooming Index and the Red-Edge Normalized Difference Vegetation Index revealed specific flowering and greenness phenophases across the two main species (Coreopsis gigantea, Artemisia californica) in the flowering areas. Overall, our approach opens opportunities for future satellite monitoring of floral cycles at broader scales.

Yoseline Angel↗

NASA NTRS1984

Voltage controlling mechanisms in low resistivity silicon solar cells: A unified approach

An experimental technique capable of resolving the dark saturation current into its base and emitter components is used as the basis of an analysis in which the voltage limiting mechanisms were determined for a variety of high voltage, low resistivity silicon solar cells. The cells studied include the University of Florida hi-low emitter cell, the NASA and the COMSAT multi-step diffused cells, the Spire Corporation ion-implanted emitter cell, and the University of New South Wales MINMIS and MINP cells. The results proved to be, in general, at variance with prior expectations. Most surprising was the finding that the MINP and the MINMIS voltage improvements are due, to a considerable extent, to a previously unrecognized optimization of the base component of the saturation current. This result is substantiated by an independent analysis of the material used to fabricate these devices.

Weizer, V. G.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Voltage controlling mechanisms in low resistivity silicon solar cells - A unified approach

Weizer, V. G.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Ultraviolet variability of NGC 5548 - Dynamics of the continuum production region and geometry of the broad-line region

Data from the 1989-1990 IUE monitoring of the Seyfert galaxy NGC 5548 are used here to analyze the continuum variability properties of the galaxy and to derive the structure or its emission-line region. The mean shape of the UV continuum is well fit by an accretion disk model with a given black hole mass and an additional component required to reproduce the observed soft X-ray flux. The continuum fluctuation power spectrum is very steep, with most of the variance coming from about 1 yr time scales. The entire optical/UV continuum rises and falls almost simultaneously, so that the logarithmic slope of the power spectrum is nearly the same for all bands, but the flux at higher photon frequencies varies with larger amplitude. The emission-line material around the nucleus may best be described by a highly ionized inner zone of high and nearly constant pressure that stretches about 4-14 light-days from the center and an outer, more weakly ionized zone of considerably lower ionization at least 20-30 light-days out.

Krolik, J. H.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Theoretical and simulated performance for a novel frequency estimation technique

A low complexity, open-loop, discrete-time, delay-multiply-average (DMA) technique for estimating the frequency offset for digitally modulated MPSK signals is investigated. A nonlinearity is used to remove the MPSK modulation and generate the carrier component to be extracted. Theoretical and simulated performance results are presented and compared to the Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRLB) for the variance of the frequency estimation error. For all signal-to-noise ratios (SNR's) above threshold, it is shown that the CRLB can essentially be achieved with linear complexity.

Crozier, Stewart N.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaporation and Transpiration From Multiple Proximal Forests and Wetlands

Abstract Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle and altering ecosystem function, including water flux to the atmosphere through evapotranspiration (ET). ET is made up of evaporation (E) via non‐stomatal surfaces, and transpiration (T) through plant stomata which are impacted by global changes in different ways. E and T are difficult to measure independently at the ecosystem scale, especially across multiple sites that represent different land use and land management strategies. To address this gap in understanding, we applied flux variance similarity (FVS) to quantify how E and T differ across 13 different ecosystems measured using eddy covariance in a 10 × 10 km area from the CHEESEHEAD19 experiment in northern Wisconsin, USA. The study sites included eight forests with a large deciduous broadleaf component, three evergreen needleleaf forests, and two wetlands. Average T/ET for the study period averaged nearly 52% in forested sites and 45% in wetlands, with larger values after excluding periods following rain events when evaporation from canopy interception may be expected. A dominance analysis revealed that environmental variables explained on average 69% of the variance of half‐hourly T, which decreased from summer to autumn. Deciduous and evergreen forests showed similar E trajectories over time despite differences in vegetation phenology, and vapor pressure deficit explained some 13% of the variance E in wetlands but only 5% or less in forests. Retrieval of E and T within a dense network of flux towers lends confidence that FVS is a promising approach for comparing ecosystem hydrology across multiple sites to improve our process‐based understanding of ecosystem water fluxes.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2023

Mass and momentum transport in the Tilted Rocket Rig experiment

Here, high-fidelity large eddy simulations of the inclined Rayleigh-Taylor instability in the Tilted Rocket Rig experimental configuration [Smeeton and Youngs, AWE Report No. O 35/87 (1987)] are performed using a tenth-order compact finite difference code. These simulations are analyzed for spatial distributions of turbulent kinetic energy, turbulent mass flux velocity, species mass fraction flux, species mass fraction variance, and Favre-averaged Reynolds stresses at two time instances, t = 37 ms and t = 52 ms. Additionally, the vertical distribution of the components of the unclosed budget equations over the center of the domain for these quantities are examined. The dominant terms of these budget equations are further decomposed to examine the principal contributions to these terms in each axis. Notably, the principal contribution to the horizontal turbulent mass flux velocity budget is found to be from a term which is commonly neglected in many Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Challenges in practical button cell testing for hydrogen production from high temperature electrolysis of water

High temperature electrolysis of water using solid oxide electrochemical cells (SOEC) is a promising technology for hydrogen production with high energy efficiency and may promote decarbonization when coupled with renewable energy sources and excess heat from nuclear reactors. Over the past several decades there have been extensive scientific and engineering studies on cell materials and degradation behaviors that have greatly improved current density, decreased total resistance, and lowered degradation rates. Although the technology is now at a near-commercial level, maintaining consistency in cell testing and minimizing variance in practical testing environments is an often overlooked but crucial topic. To promote high quality data collection, testing procedures and balance of plant component details are extremely important to consider. This work discusses some key factors affecting the reproducibility of practical SOEC testing on the button cell level, namely, current collection layers, cell sealing procedures, the reliability of steam and hydrogen delivery systems, cell testing fixture design, and reduction procedures. To provide a baseline and a level of standardization for the SOEC community, this work also discloses details of the standard operating procedure and techniques adopted for o-SOEC testing at Idaho National Laboratory (INL).

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRS1987

Latitude dependence of eddy variances

The eddy variance of a meteorological field must tend to zero at high latitudes due solely to the nature of spherical polar coordinates. The zonal averaging operator defines a length scale: the circumference of the latitude circle. When the circumference of the latitude circle is greater than the correlation length of the field, the eddy variance from transient eddies is the result of differences between statistically independent regions. When the circumference is less than the correlation length, the eddy variance is computed from points that are well correlated with each other, and so is reduced. The expansion of a field into zonal Fourier components is also influenced by the use of spherical coordinates. As is well known, a phenomenon of fixed wavelength will have different zonal wavenumbers at different latitudes. Simple analytical examples of these effects are presented along with an observational example from satellite ozone data. It is found that geometrical effects can be important even in middle latitudes.

Bowman, Kenneth P.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Construction of Solar-Wind-Like Magnetic Fields

Fluctuations in the solar wind fields tend to not only have velocities and magnetic fields correlated in the sense consistent with Alfven waves traveling from the Sun, but they also have the magnitude of the magnetic field remarkably constant despite their being broadband. This paper provides, for the first time, a method for constructing fields with nearly constant magnetic field, zero divergence, and with any specified power spectrum for the fluctuations of the components of the field. Every wave vector, k, is associated with two polarizations the relative phases of these can be chosen to minimize the variance of the field magnitude while retaining the\random character of the fields. The method is applied to a case with one spatial coordinate that demonstrates good agreement with observed time series and power spectra of the magnetic field in the solar wind, as well as with the distribution of the angles of rapid changes (discontinuities), thus showing a deep connection between two seemingly unrelated issues. It is suggested that using this construction will lead to more realistic simulations of solar wind turbulence and of the propagation of energetic particles.

Roberts, Dana Aaron↗

DOE OSTI2023

The influence of physical and algorithmic factors on simulated far-field waveforms and source–time functions of underground explosions using unsupervised machine learning

SUMMARY Characterizing explosion sources and differentiating between earthquake and underground explosions using distributed seismic networks becomes non-trivial when explosions are detonated in cavities or heterogeneous ground material. Moreover, there is little understanding of how changes in subsurface physical properties affect the far-field waveforms we record and use to infer information about the source. Simulations of underground explosions and the resultant ground motions can be a powerful tool to systematically explore how different subsurface properties affect far-field waveform features, but there are added variables that arise from how we choose to model the explosions that can confound interpretation. To assess how both subsurface properties and algorithmic choices affect the seismic wavefield and the estimated source functions, we ran a series of 2-D axisymmetric non-linear numerical explosion experiments and wave propagation simulations that explore a wide array of parameters. We then inverted the synthetic far-field waveform data using a linear inversion scheme to estimate source–time functions (STFs) for each simulation case. We applied principal component analysis (PCA), an unsupervised machine learning method, to both the far-field waveforms and STFs to identify the most important factors that control variance in the waveform data and differences between cases. For the far-field waveforms, the largest variance occurs in the shallower radial receiver channels in the 0–50 Hz frequency band. For the STFs, both peak amplitude and rise times across different frequencies contribute to the variance. We find that the ground equation of state (i.e. lithology and rheology) and the explosion emplacement conditions (i.e. tamped versus cavity) have the greatest effect on the variance of the far-field waveforms and STFs, with the ground yield strength and fracture pressure being secondary factors. Differences in the PCA results between the far-field waveforms and STFs could possibly be due to near-field non-linearities of the source that are not accounted for in the estimation of STFs and could be associated with yield strength, fracture pressure, cavity radius and cavity shape parameters. Other algorithmic parameters are found to be less important and cause less variance in both the far-field waveforms and STFs, meaning algorithmic choices in how we model explosions are less important, which is encouraging for the further use of explosion simulations to study how physical Earth properties affect seismic waveform features and estimated STFs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1983

Forecasting tropical cyclone recurvature with upper tropospheric winds

Data from 17 tropical cyclones during the 1974 through 1979 hurricane seasons are used to investigate whether the high level winds far to the northwest, north and northeast of the hurricane center can be used to predict hurricane track recurvature. When the man 200-mb winds 1500 to 2000 km northwest and north of the storm center equal or exceed 20 m/s, 80 per cent of the storms recurved before traveling as much as 12 degrees of longitude farther west. The high winds were also used to predict change in direction of forward motion during the next 72 hours. The regression equations developed explain up to 41 per cent of the variance in future direction. In addition to the geostrophic winds used, winds were also obtained by tracking clouds with successive satellite imagery. The u-components of the satellite winds are highly correlated with the geostrophic winds at 200-mb and could probably be used instead of them when available. The v-components are less highly correlated.

Gentry, R. C.↗