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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning of Key Variables Impacting Extreme Precipitation in Various Regions of the Contiguous United States

Abstract Amplification in extreme precipitation intensity and frequency can cause severe flooding and impose significant social and economic consequences. Variations in extreme precipitation intensity, frequencies, and return periods can be attributed to many physical variables across spatial and temporal scales. Here we employ ensemble machine learning (ML) methods, namely random forest (RF), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), and artificial neural networks (ANN), to explore key contributing variables to monthly extreme precipitation intensity and frequency in six regions over the United States. We further establish emulators for return periods. Results show that the ML models for intensity perform better in regions with obvious seasonality (i.e., Northern Great Plains, Southern Great Plains, and West Coast) than the other three regions (Northeast, Southwest, and Rocky Mountains), while for frequency the models perform well for most regions. The Shapley additive explanation is used to help explain the relationships between extreme precipitation characteristics and identify top variables for RF and XGB. We find that latent heat flux, relative humidity, soil moisture, and large‐scale subsidence are key common variables across the regions for both monthly intensity and frequency, and their compound effects are non‐negligible. The developed ML models capture the probability and return period of extreme precipitation well for all regions and may be used for decision making (e.g., infrastructure planning and design).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Recent Accelerated Decadal Shift in Winter North American Temperature Patterns Under Pacific‐Atlantic Decadal Variability

Global warming and internal climate variability have changed winter temperature extreme regimes in North America, affecting droughts and wildfires in the western United States. However, how internal climate variability influences North American winter temperature extreme patterns remains poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate that the recent winter North American surface air temperature (SAT) exhibits an accelerated decadal alternation between Warm West-Cold East (WWCE) and Cold West-Warm East (CWWE) dipoles because their variations show shorter decadal periods during 1990–2022 than during 1950–1989 and are regulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) variability. While the winter WWCE dipole mainly linked to North Pacific blocking events exhibited a smaller mean amplitude during 1990–2022 than 1950–1989 due to the weakened positive PDO phase during 1990–2022 under the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the winter CWWE showed a larger mean amplitude during 1990–2022 due to the stronger negative PDO phase than during 1950–1989. Our results further suggest that the recent rapid decadal shift of North American winter temperatures is primarily attributed to the PDO variability likely due to anthropogenic warming under the positive AMO.

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation↗
DOE OSTI2020

A joint role for forced and internally-driven variability in the decadal modulation of global warming

Despite the observed monotonic increase in greenhouse-gas concentrations, global mean temperature displays important decadal fluctuations typically attributed to both external forcing and internal variability. Here, we provide a robust quantification of the relative contributions of anthropogenic, natural, and internally-driven decadal variability of global mean sea surface temperature (GMSST) by using a unique dataset consisting of 30-member large initial-condition ensembles with five Earth System Models (ESM-LE). We present evidence that a large fraction (~29–53%) of the simulated decadal-scale variance in individual timeseries of GMSST over 1950–2010 is externally forced and largely linked to the representation of volcanic aerosols. Comparison with the future (2010–2070) period suggests that external forcing provides a source of additional decadal-scale variability in the historical period. Given the unpredictable nature of future volcanic aerosol forcing, it is suggested that a large portion of decadal GMSST variability might not be predictable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantum repeaters based on concatenated bosonic and discrete-variable quantum codes

Abstract We propose an architecture of quantum-error-correction-based quantum repeaters that combines techniques used in discrete- and continuous-variable quantum information. Specifically, we propose to encode the transmitted qubits in a concatenated code consisting of two levels. On the first level we use a continuous-variable GKP code encoding the qubit in a single bosonic mode. On the second level we use a small discrete-variable code. Such an architecture has two important features. Firstly, errors on each of the two levels are corrected in repeaters of two different types. This enables for achieving performance needed in practical scenarios with a reduced cost with respect to an architecture for which all repeaters are the same. Secondly, the use of continuous-variable GKP code on the lower level generates additional analog information which enhances the error-correcting capabilities of the second-level code such that long-distance communication becomes possible with encodings consisting of only four or seven optical modes.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2020

The ELISA Detectability and Potency of Pegfilgrastim Decrease in Physiological Conditions: Key Roles for Aggregation and Individual Variability

PEGylated recombinant human granulocyte colony stimulating factor (pegflgrastim) is used clinically to accelerate immune reconstitution following chemotherapy and is being pursued for biosimilar development. One challenge to overcome in pegflgrastim biosimilar development is establishing pharmacokinetic (PK) similarity, which is partly due to the degree of PK variability. We herein report that commercially available G-CSF and PEG ELISA detection kits have different capacities to detect pegflgrastim aggregates that rapidly form in vitro in physiological conditions. These aggregates can be observed using SDS-PAGE, size-exclusion chromatography, dynamic light scattering, and real-time NMR analysis and are associated with decreased bioactivity as reflected by reduced drug-induced cellular proliferation and STAT3 phosphorylation. Furthermore, individual variability in the stability and detectability of pegflgrastim in human sera is also observed. Pegflgrastim levels display marked subject variability in sera from healthy donors incubated at 37°C. The stability patterns of pegflgrastim closely match the stability patterns of flgrastim, consistent with a key role for pegflgrastim’s G-CSF moiety in driving formation of inactive aggregates. Taken together, our results indicate that individual variability and ELISA specificity for inactive aggregates are key factors to consider when designing and interpreting studies involving the measurement of serum pegflgrastim concentrations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty-aware mixed-variable machine learning for materials design

Abstract Data-driven design shows the promise of accelerating materials discovery but is challenging due to the prohibitive cost of searching the vast design space of chemistry, structure, and synthesis methods. Bayesian optimization (BO) employs uncertainty-aware machine learning models to select promising designs to evaluate, hence reducing the cost. However, BO with mixed numerical and categorical variables, which is of particular interest in materials design, has not been well studied. In this work, we survey frequentist and Bayesian approaches to uncertainty quantification of machine learning with mixed variables. We then conduct a systematic comparative study of their performances in BO using a popular representative model from each group, the random forest-based Lolo model (frequentist) and the latent variable Gaussian process model (Bayesian). We examine the efficacy of the two models in the optimization of mathematical functions, as well as properties of structural and functional materials, where we observe performance differences as related to problem dimensionality and complexity. By investigating the machine learning models’ predictive and uncertainty estimation capabilities, we provide interpretations of the observed performance differences. Our results provide practical guidance on choosing between frequentist and Bayesian uncertainty-aware machine learning models for mixed-variable BO in materials design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Importance of incorporating spatial and temporal variability of biomass yield and quality in bioenergy supply chain

Abstract Biofuels made from biomass and waste residues will largely contribute to United States’ 2050 decarbonization goal in the aviation sector. While cellulosic biofuels have the potential fuel performance equivalent to petroleum-based jet fuel, the biofuel industry needs to overcome the supply chain barrier caused by temporal and spatial variability of biomass yield and quality. This study highlights the importance of incorporating spatial and temporal variability during biomass supply chain planning via optimization modeling that incorporates 10 years of drought index data, a primary factor contributing to yield and quality variability. The results imply that the cost of delivering biomass to biorefinery may be significantly underestimated if the multi-year temporal and spatial variation in biomass yield and quality is not captured. For long term sustainable biorefinery operations, the industry should optimize supply chain strategy by studying the variability of yield and quality of biomass in their supply sheds.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Decoupling of Arctic variability from the North Pacific in a warmer climate

The sea level pressure variability in the North Pacific modulates the climate of the Arctic and surrounding continents, substantially impacting ecosystems and indigenous communities. Our analysis based on data from the CESM2 Large Ensemble and different Model Intercomparison Project datasets reveals that the interannual variability of Arctic surface air temperature (SAT) gradually decouples from the contemporaneous atmospheric conditions over the North Pacific as external forcing increases in intensity in the future. Future projections show that the North Pacific-Arctic relationship during the fall season consistently weakens in magnitude until the end of this century, and in the 22nd and 23rd centuries, the relationship is negligible throughout the year. We show that under increased greenhouse gas emissions, the regional heat fluxes extensively control the Arctic temperature variability, and the strength of the projected North Pacific-Arctic relationship is strongly dependent on the Arctic sea ice extent. Our results suggest that under future warming, a strong coupling of Arctic SAT with the underlying ocean and a weakening of the meridional pressure gradient driven by an enhanced rate of sea ice retreat will weaken the interannual footprint of North Pacific variability on Arctic SAT. Therefore, we propose that the alarming rate of sea-ice decline over recent decades and projected in the near future could accelerate the rate of decoupling. Further, we suggest that mitigation strategies for the Arctic should focus on regional mechanisms operating on interannual and seasonal timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The role of the tropical Atlantic in tropical Pacific climate variability

Abstract Interactions between Atlantic and Pacific Oceans can affect tropical Pacific variability and its global impacts at both interannual and decadal timescales. Thus, a deepened understanding of the coupled Atlantic-Pacific interactions is needed. While possible dynamical mechanisms by which the Atlantic can influence the Pacific have been identified, the effectiveness of those mechanisms is difficult to establish using climate model simulations where Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are prescribed and Pacific feedbacks cannot be realistically included. As an alternative approach, here we use a Linear Inverse Model (LIM) trained on observations and capable of correctly reproducing the observed statistics, to assess the relative role of the Atlantic-to-Pacific and Pacific-to-Atlantic influences on tropical Pacific variability. Our results indicate that Atlantic internal variability can enhance interannual SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific, and decadal SST anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific, while Pacific influences on the Atlantic significantly damp tropical Pacific decadal variability. This methodological framework could also be used to assess climate model fidelity in representing tropical basin interactions, helping to reconcile existing differences among models’ results.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Linking the subseasonal variability of the East Asia winter monsoon and the Madden-Julian Oscillation through wave disturbances along the subtropical jet

Despite an urgent demand for reliable subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions to guide disaster preparedness, our current climate models show limited S2S prediction skill, particularly for precipitation, due to an inadequate understanding of the key processes that drive regional S2S variability. Here we demonstrate that the leading subseasonal variability mode of precipitation over the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) region is not only closely tied to the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), but also linked to precipitation and temperature extremes worldwide, influenced by a circumglobal Rossby wave-train along the subtropical westerly jet. Despite a close phase-lock relationship between the MJO and subseasonal EAWM precipitation, our findings indicate that the MJO itself may only play a minor role in the subseasonal EAWM variability. Given its significant impact on the S2S variability of global weather extremes, we call for coordinated community efforts to enhance the understanding and prediction of the circumglobal Rossby wave-train.

Atmospheric science↗
DOE OSTI2021

Design and expected performance of a variable-radii sinusoidal spiral x-ray spectrometer for the National Ignition Facility

A novel high-resolution x-ray spectrometer for point-like emission sources has been developed using a crystal shape having both a variable major and a variable minor radius of curvature. This variable-radii sinusoidal spiral spectrometer (VR-Spiral) allows three common spectrometer design goals to be achieved simultaneously: 1. reduction of aberrations and improved spectral (energy) resolution, 2. reduction of source size broadening, and 3. use of large crystals to improve total throughput. The VR-Spiral concept and its application to practical spectrometer design are described in detail. This concept is then used to design a spectrometer for an extreme extended x-ray absorption fine structure experiment at the National Ignition Facility looking at the Pb L 3 absorption edge at 13.0352 keV. The expected performance of this VR-Spiral spectrometer, both in terms of energy resolution and spatial resolution, is evaluated through the use of a newly developed raytracing tool, xicsrt. Finally, the expected performance of the VR-Spiral concept is compared to that of spectrometers based on conventional toroidal and variable-radii toroidal crystal geometries showing a greatly improved energy resolution.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Discovery of a Candidate Binary Supermassive Black Hole in a Periodic Quasar from Circumbinary Accretion Variability

Binary supermassive black holes (BSBHs) are expected to be a generic byproduct from hierarchical galaxy formation. The final coalescence of BSBHs is thought to be the loudest gravitational wave (GW) siren, yet no confirmed BSBH is known in the GW-dominated regime. While periodic quasars have been proposed as BSBH candidates, the physical origin of the periodicity has been largely uncertain. Here we report discovery of a periodicity (P=1607±7 days) at 99.95% significance (with a global p-value of ~10 –3 accounting for the look elsewhere effect) in the optical light curves of a redshift 1.53 quasar, SDSS J025214.67–002813.7. Combining archival Sloan Digital Sky Survey data with new, sensitive imaging from the Dark Energy Survey, the total ~20-yr time baseline spans ~4.6 cycles of the observed 4.4-yr (restframe 1.7-yr) periodicity. The light curves are best fit by a bursty model predicted by hydrodynamic simulations of circumbinary accretion disks. The periodicity is likely caused by accretion rate modulation by a milli-parsec BSBH emitting GWs, dynamically coupled to the circumbinary accretion disk. A bursty hydrodynamic variability model is statistically preferred over a smooth, sinusoidal model expected from relativistic Doppler boost, a kinematic effect proposed for PG1302–102. Furthermore, the frequency dependence of the variability amplitudes disfavors Doppler boost, lending independent support to the circumbinary accretion variability hypothesis. Given our detection rate of one BSBH candidate from circumbinary accretion variability out of 625 quasars, it suggests that future large, sensitive synoptic surveys such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time may be able to detect hundreds to thousands of candidate BSBHs from circumbinary accretion with direct implications for Laser Interferometer Space Antenna.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Search and identification of transient and variable radio sources using MeerKAT observations: a case study on the MAXI J1820+070 field

ABSTRACT Many transient and variable sources detected at multiple wavelengths are also observed to vary at radio frequencies. However, these samples are typically biased towards sources that are initially detected in wide-field optical, X-ray, or gamma-ray surveys. Many sources that are insufficiently bright at higher frequencies are therefore missed, leading to potential gaps in our knowledge of these sources and missing populations that are not detectable in optical, X-rays, or gamma-rays. Taking advantage of new state-of-the-art radio facilities that provide high-quality wide-field images with fast survey speeds, we can now conduct unbiased surveys for transient and variable sources at radio frequencies. In this paper, we present an unbiased survey using observations obtained by MeerKAT, a mid-frequency (∼GHz) radio array in South Africa’s Karoo Desert. The observations used were obtained as part of a weekly monitoring campaign for X-ray binaries (XRBs) and we focus on the field of MAXI J1820+070. We develop methods to efficiently filter transient and variable candidates that can be directly applied to other data sets. In addition to MAXI J1820+070, we identify four likely active galactic nuclei, one source that could be a Galactic source (pulsar or quiescent XRB) or an AGN, and one variable pulsar. No transient sources, defined as being undetected in deep images, were identified leading to a transient surface density of <3.7 × 10−2 deg−2 at a sensitivity of 1 mJy on time-scales of 1 week at 1.4 GHz.

Rowlinson, A. (ORCID:0000000211957022)↗
DOE OSTI2023

A matched-filter approach to radio variability and transients: searching for orphan afterglows in the VAST Pilot Survey

Radio transient searches using traditional variability metrics struggle to recover sources whose evolution time-scale is significantly longer than the survey cadence. Motivated by the recent observations of slowly evolving radio afterglows at gigahertz frequency, we present the results of a search for radio variables and transients using an alternative matched-filter approach. We designed our matched-filter to recover sources with radio light curves that have a high-significance fit to power-law and smoothly broken power-law functions; light curves following these functions are characteristic of synchrotron transients, including ‘orphan’ gamma-ray burst afterglows, which were the primary targets of our search. Applying this matched-filter approach to data from Variables and Slow Transients Pilot Survey conducted using the Australian SKA Pathfinder, we produced five candidates in our search. Subsequent Australia Telescope Compact Array observations and analysis revealed that: one is likely a synchrotron transient; one is likely a flaring active galactic nucleus, exhibiting a flat-to-steep spectral transition over 4 months; one is associated with a starburst galaxy, with the radio emission originating from either star formation or an underlying slowly evolving transient; and the remaining two are likely extrinsic variables caused by interstellar scintillation. The synchrotron transient, VAST J175036.1–181454, has a multifrequency light curve, peak spectral luminosity, and volumetric rate that is consistent with both an off-axis afterglow and an off-axis tidal disruption event; interpreted as an off-axis afterglow would imply an average inverse beaming factor $\langle f^{-1}_{\text{b}} \rangle = 860^{+1980}_{-710}$, or equivalently, an average jet opening angle of $\langle \theta _{\textrm {j}} \rangle = 3^{+4}_{-1}\,$ deg.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Chemical compositions of semiregular variable red giants

ABSTRACT A sample of warm, low-level semiregular variables chosen from the General Catalogue of Variable Stars is studied for their chemical compositions by analysing high-resolution optical spectra. The abundance ratios from Na/Fe to Eu/Fe displayed by these and previously analysed semiregular variables are quite similar to ratios displayed by normal red giants across the Galactic thin and thick discs and halo populations in the solar neighbourhood, suggesting from this perspective that the variables may be among the more photometrically active red giants.

Pozhath, Ramya↗
DOE OSTI2024

The variability structure function of the highest luminosity quasars on short time-scales

ABSTRACT The stochastic photometric variability of quasars is known to follow a random-walk phenomenology on emission time-scales of months to years. Some high-cadence rest-frame optical monitoring in the past has hinted at a suppression of variability amplitudes on shorter time-scales of a few days or weeks, opening the question of what drives the suppression and how it might scale with quasar properties. Here, we study a few thousand of the highest luminosity quasars in the sky, mostly in the luminosity range of $L_{\rm bol}$$=[46.4, 47.3]$ and redshift range of $z=[0.7, 2.4]$. We use a data set from the NASA/Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System facility with nightly cadence, weather permitting, which has been used before to quantify strong regularity in longer term rest-frame-UV variability. As we focus on a careful treatment of short time-scales across the sample, we find that a linear function is sufficient to describe the UV variability structure function. Although the result can not rule out the existence of breaks in some groups completely, a simpler model is usually favoured under this circumstance. In conclusion, the data are consistent with a single-slope random walk across rest-frame time-scales of $\Delta t=[10, 250]$ d.

Tang, Ji-Jia (ORCID:0000000218600886)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Follow-up observations for IceCube-170922A: Detection of rapid near-infrared variability and intensive monitoring of TXS 0506+056

Abstract We present our follow-up observations to search for an electromagnetic counterpart of the IceCube high-energy neutrino IceCube-170922A. Monitoring observations of a likely counterpart, TXS 0506+056, are also described. First, we quickly took optical and near-infrared images of seven flat-spectrum radio sources within the IceCube error region right after the neutrino detection and found a rapid flux decline of TXS 0506+056 in Kanata/HONIR J-band data. Motivated by this discovery, intensive follow-up observations of TXS 0506+056 were continuously performed, including our monitoring imaging observations, spectroscopic observations, and polarimetric observations in optical and near-infrared wavelengths. TXS 0506+056 showed a large-amplitude (∼1.0 mag) variability in a time scale of several days or longer, although no significant variability was detected in a time scale of a day or shorter. TXS 0506+056 also showed a bluer-when-brighter trend in optical and near-infrared wavelengths. Structure functions of the variabilities were examined and indicate that TXS 0506+056 is not a special blazar in terms of optical variability. Polarization measurement results of TXS 0506+056 are also discussed.

(galaxies:) BL Lacertae objects: general↗
DOE OSTI2024

Generative deep-learning reveals collective variables of Fermionic systems

Complex processes of fermionic systems ranging from protein folding to nuclear fission often follow a low-dimensional reaction path parametrized in terms of a few collective variables. In nuclear theory, variables related to the shape of the nuclear density in a mean-field picture are key to describing the large amplitude collective motion of the neutrons and protons. Exploring the adiabatic energy landscape spanned by these degrees of freedom reveals the possible reaction channels while simulating the dynamics in this reduced space yields their respective probabilities. Unfortunately, this theoretical framework breaks down whenever the systems encounters a quantum phase transition with respect to the collective variables. Here, in this study, we introduce a novel generative deep-learning algorithm designed to build reaction paths that ensure that the many-fermion wave function stays differentiable with respect to the collective variables. This approach is applicable to any fermionic system described by a coherent state. We use the case of potential energy curves in the 16 O nucleus within the Hartree-Fock theory to illustrate its main features.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗