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At least 217 records · Page 12

Incorporation of market signals for the optimal design of post combustion carbon capture systems

Recent studies have shown that fossil generators equipped with post-combustion carbon capture (PCC) systems are needed to reduce the cost of deep decarbonization. Such generators need to be flexible and responsive to grid conditions, particularly in a high variable renewable energy (VRE) environment. In this work, we evaluate the net present value (NPV) of retrofitting an existing natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) unit with a flexible PCC system while incorporating market signals from a high VRE grid. We use our industrial partner’s NGCC configuration as representative of existing NGCC units and Svante’s rapid-temperature swing adsorption (TSA) for PCC. Because of its ability to rapidly startup/shutdown and ramp-up/ramp-down, the chosen capture technology is very attractive for load-following operations. For a given set of market signals, we formulate a two-stage stochastic multi-period optimization problem, under the price-taker assumption, to simultaneously optimize the design of the capture system and operation of the entire plant. Rigorous models for the NGCC unit, PCC system, and compression system are developed using commercial process simulators and validated with either plant or vendor data. For computational tractability, we develop surrogate/reduced-order models for use in the optimization problem. The surrogate model for the NGCC plant is constructed by linearizing the rigorous dynamic model at 75% load, while data-driven nonlinear surrogate models for the capture and compression systems are constructed using simulation data from the rigorous models. The optimization problem, formulated as a mixed integer bilinear program, is implemented in the IDAES® integrated platform and solved to global optimality using Gurobi 9.5. Using this formulation, we determine the profitability of retrofitting an existing NGCC unit with the chosen capture system for multiple regions in the U.S. under two scenarios with different carbon prices. Importantly, the results show that the optimal decision strongly depends on the region and on the carbon price, thereby demonstrating the importance of the inclusion of market signals in the design process.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Variable renewable energy deployment in low-emission scenarios: The role of technology cost and value

While rapid deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies, namely wind and solar PV, is often projected in 2C pathways generated by integrated assessment models, there is a wide range in projected VRE deployment by mid-century. Such differences could be the result of differences in assumptions about future technology costs and/or differences in model approaches for capturing other aspects of technology competitiveness. Here we introduce a consistent competitiveness metric, profitability-adjusted levelized cost of electricity (or PLCOE), to an integrated assessment model (EPPA) to evaluate the representation of technology competition, including VRE, in low-emission scenarios. We show that representing the value of technology (alongside cost) may significantly impact VRE deployment relative to scenarios without such an adjustment. In addition, we show that varying VRE costs by about 35% in 2050 results in differences in VRE deployment that span much of the range in outcomes (over the same period) observed in likely 2C scenarios assessed by the IPCC, suggesting that both cost and value are key drivers of VRE deployment in such scenarios. Given the central role that VRE technologies play in the electricity mix across most scenarios, we also find that alternative cost assumptions for VRE technologies can lead to changes in electricity prices, the associated demand for electricity, and total final and primary energy consumption. However, the demand for fuels other than electricity is relatively insensitive to VRE assumptions in the 2C scenarios considered here.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Effects of Deep Reductions in Energy Storage Costs on Highly Reliable Wind and Solar Electricity Systems.

We use 36 years (1980-2015) of hourly weather data over the contiguous United States (CONUS) to assess the impact of low-cost energy storage on highly reliable electricity systems that use only variable renewable energy (VRE; wind and solar photovoltaics). Even assuming perfect transmission of wind and solar generation aggregated over CONUS, energy storage costs would need to decrease several hundred-fold from current costs (to ~$1/kWh) in fully VRE electricity systems to yield highly reliable electricity without extensive curtailment of VRE generation. The role of energy storage changes from high-cost storage competing with curtailment to fill short-term gaps between VRE generation and hourly demand to near-free storage serving as seasonal storage for VRE resources. Energy storage faces "double penalties" in VRE/storage systems: with increasing capacity, (1) the additional storage is used less frequently and (2) hourly electricity costs would become less volatile, thus reducing price arbitrage opportunities for the additional storage.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Synchrotron X-ray diffraction analysis of constituent phases in transition joint between nickel alloy 738LC and a MnFeCoNiCu alloy

Synchrotron x-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis was performed on transition joints between a single-phase MnFeCoNiCu alloy and Ni-base Alloy 738LC to efficiently identify the constituent phases across the interface, with different levels of material intermixing generated by laser-welding with variable power. Here, the intermixing extent was quantified by postmortem energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy mapping. Diffraction-based analyses on complex composition spaces with limited prior data present significant challenges because elemental substitution in both disordered and ordered phases is more extensive than in conventional alloy spaces, which may effectuate relatively large shifts in the observed lattice parameters that convolute the analysis. Therefore, thermodynamic simulations and crystallographic literature data were employed to construct a system-specific diffraction library of twelve prospective phases for the composition space investigated. Subsequently, for predicted disordered cubic phases, statistical hard-sphere models were established to estimate the lattice parameters and predict diffraction peak positions for inclusion in the library. The library was then employed to analyze diffraction profiles measured from the variably intermixed transition joints, with focus on accounting for both high and low-intensity peaks. 99.0 % of diffraction peaks with relative intensity greater than 0.001 were assigned to phases from the system-specific library, exemplifying rigorous peak accounting and indicating that no unexpected phases were present. Up to six of the twelve library phases were experimentally found in the transition joints. The lattice parameters predicted by the statistical hard-sphere model based upon thermodynamic simulations agree reasonably well with the measured values for the disordered FCC matrix phase.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Energy storage solutions to decarbonize electricity through enhanced capacity expansion modelling

To meet ambitious global decarbonization goals, electricity system planning and operations will change fundamentally. With increasing reliance on variable renewable energy resources, energy storage is likely to play a critical accompanying role to help balance generation and consumption patterns. As grid planners, non-profit organizations, non-governmental organizations, policy makers, regulators and other key stakeholders commonly use capacity expansion modelling to inform energy policy and investment decisions, it is crucial that these processes capture the value of energy storage in energy-system decarbonization. Here we conduct an extensive review of literature on the representation of energy storage in capacity expansion modelling. We identify challenges related to enhancing modelling capabilities to inform decarbonization policies and electricity system investments, and to improve societal outcomes throughout the clean energy transition. Additionally, we further identify corresponding research activities that can help overcome these challenges and conclude by highlighting tangible real-world outcomes that will result from pursuing these research activities. Capacity expansion modelling (CEM) approaches need to account for the value of energy storage in energy-system decarbonization. A new Review considers the representation of energy storage in the CEM literature and identifies approaches to overcome the challenges such approaches face when it comes to better informing policy and investment decisions.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A Critical Exploration of the Efficiency Impacts of Demand Response From HVAC in Commercial Buildings

Increasing quantities of renewable energy generation has yielded a need for greater energy storage capacity in power systems. Thermal storage in variable air volume (VAV) heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) in commercial buildings has been identified as an inexpensive source of grid storage, but the true costs are not known. Recent literature explores the inefficiency associated with providing grid services from these HVAC-based demand response (DR) resources by employing a battery analogy to calculate round-trip efficiency (RTE). Results vary significantly across studies and in some cases reported efficiencies are strikingly low. This article has three objectives to address these prior results. First, we synthesize and expand on insights into existing literature by systematically exploring the potential causes for the discrepancies in results. We reinforce previous work indicating baseline modeling may drive differences across studies and deduce that control accuracy plays a role in the major differences between experiments and simulation. Second, we discuss why the RTE metric is problematic for DR applications, discuss another proposed metric, additional energy consumption (AEC), and propose an extension, which we call uninstructed energy consumption (UEC), to evaluate DR performance. Finally, we explore the merits of different metrics using experimental data and highlight UEC's reduced sensitivity to the characteristics of the DR signal than previously proposed metrics.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Least-Cost Pathways for India's Electric Power Sector

The Government of India has a target of deploying 175 GW from renewable energy by 2022 and 40% of electricity capacity from renewable energy by 2030 and has indicated that ambitions for 2030 could be higher. Rapid changes in technology costs and performance could drive further deployment of wind and solar capacity beyond these policy targets. Increased deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) raises new questions for power system planning regarding the optimal siting of generation capacity, trade-offs between generation and transmission infrastructure, and system flexibility needs. This study aims to evaluate least-cost pathways for India's electric power system over the period 2017-2047. Uniquely, this work considers an expanded planning horizon and range of scenarios not previously analyzed in national planning studies in India. The data collection and model design processes undertaken for this study provides a framework for recurring planning studies. This study finds anticipated changes in electricity demand and component costs can drive a significant shift in India's future electricity supply and how this system will be operated. In the Base scenario, the share of generation from VRE reaches 54% by 2047. Reducing the capital cost of wind has a larger impact on VRE penetration than reducing the capital cost of solar PV or battery storage. In the lowest wind cost scenario (40% capital cost decline by 2047 relative to the Base scenario), the penetration of VRE in the generation mix reaches 722%, exceeding the penetration levels achieved when the cost of battery storage or solar PV are reduced by an even greater 50%. In a future system with high penetrations of RE, capacity additions are driven by the coincidence of demand and RE generation rather than peak demand alone. This study finds the system could have surplus capacity during the peak demand months of July–September because this period corresponds to periods with high wind speeds and more wind generation available to meet peak demand. By contrast, new capacity is needed to meet demand during moderate demand months of October–November when output from wind plants falls more than 75% nationally compared to the previous two months. Finally, the success for gas for electricity production may depend on cost competitiveness rather than fuel availability. Increasing the amount of gas available for electricity production had no significant impact on the capacity or generation mix by 2047, as determined from a scenario that significantly increases fuel availability throughout the planning horizon. In fact, over 80% of new gas fuel available for the power sector remains unused. This suggests the high cost of gas plant operations relative to other technologies may constrain the expansion of gas generation in India more than fuel availability.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Potential Availability of and Supply Curves for Low-Cost, Dispatch-Constrained Electricity

Among other changes, variable renewable energy (VRE) - primarily wind and solar photovoltaics - is achieving a growing share of total generation. High VRE penetrations may result in an increased level of curtailment and thus suppress the value of additional VRE. This VRE, that either would not be built due to price suppression or would be curtailed, can be considered a resource that we define as low-cost, dispatch-constrained electricity (LDE). LDE could be used for various applications which value low-cost electricity and can operate at reduced capacity factors. Examples include electrolytic hydrogen production and carbon capture. This report provides initial estimates of the quantity and availability of the potential LDE resource in the U.S. under scenarios with high VRE penetrations. It also provides supply curves that can be used in subsequent analysis of the opportunity to use the LDE. We modeled several scenarios using capacity expansion and production cost models for LDE prices ranging from $\$ $0/MWh to $\$ $30/MWh. These LDE prices, coupled with low renewable energy cost assumptions, resulted in VRE penetrations ranging from 48-66% in 2050. The resulting LDE supplies range from 100 - 300 TWh/yr at a price of $\$ $0/MWh to 3,500 - 4,200 TWh/yr at $\$ $30/MWh. Increasing LDE prices increases wind and photovoltaics deployment; however, other generation technology capacities do not decrease equivalently in our models. Thus, additional generation is available but the capacity of traditional dispatchable generation is only reduced slightly. The available LDE is concentrated in the central and southwest U.S. regions because of their high wind and solar resources.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Development of a 95-Year Solar Dataset for Resource Adequacy Studies

Long-term high-resolution solar data provides enhanced understanding of variability of solar generation and enhances our ability to develop strategies for a resilient and reliable electric grid under high deployment of solar energy. Therefore, it is important to develop long-term synthetic datasets that can provide multiple occurrences of various severe weather scenarios that are expected to test the limits of resource adequacy under scenarios contain various energy generation sources. Examples of such scenarios could be long periods of high temperatures when demand for electricity is high or periods where high winds could lead to a shut-down of transmission lines for long periods of time to ensure fire safety. NREL has developed the first version of such a dataset covering a 95-year period covering 2006-2100 at a 4km hourly resolution. This dataset contains all variables necessary to calculate solar generation. During development of this dataset, we focused on creating unbiased, high-resolution solar irradiance through statistical downscaling methods, using Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) as input. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) containing over 25 years of observations was used to calibrate the statistical downscaling models. This presentation will outline the primary steps in developing this dataset, including (1) regridding RCM data to a common grid at 20-km resolution, (2) correcting RCM biases with NSRDB, (3) applying temporal and spatial downscaling methods to generate high-resolution (4-km, hourly) solar and ancillary data. Additionally, we will present an evaluation of the downscaled data against the NSRDB across various zones in the CONUS. Lastly, we will present a user guide for accessing the datasets.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Toward 100% Renewable Power Grids: A Review

The transition to a 100% renewable power grid remains beset by significant technical challenges. This paper critically examines the obstacles arising from the variability and unpredictability of renewable energy sources (RES), which complicate the real-time balancing of power generation and load demand. In addition to traditional stability concerns (e.g., rotor angle, voltage, and frequency stability), the increasing penetration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) introduces novel challenges, including resonance stability issues and converter-driven dynamics. Moreover, the dynamic behavior and fault response of IBRs diverge markedly from those of conventional synchronous generators, rendering traditional protection schemes increasingly inadequate. This paper reviews state-of-the-art solutions in power balancing, grid flexibility, stability enhancement, and advanced protection strategies, discussing their implications for future grid design. The analysis provides a comprehensive assessment of recent technological advancements, thereby outlining critical research directions essential for achieving a resilient, 100% renewable power grid.

100% renewable power grid↗

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part III: Variability

Abstract Daily expected wind power production from operating wind farms across North America are used to evaluate capacity factors (CF) computed using simulation output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and to condition statistical models linking atmospheric conditions to electricity production. In Parts I and II of this work, we focus on making projections of annual energy production and the occurrence of electrical production drought. Here, we extend evaluation of the CF projections for sites in the Northeast, Midwest, southern Great Plains (SGP), and southwest U.S. coast (SWC) using statewide wind-generated electricity supply to the grid. We then quantify changes in the time scales of CF variability and the seasonality. Currently, wind-generated electricity is lowest in summer in each region except SWC, which causes a substantial mismatch with electricity demand. While electricity of residential heating may shift demand, research presented here suggests that summertime CF are likely to decline, potentially exacerbating the offset between seasonal peak power production and current load. The reduction in summertime CF is manifest for all regions except the SGP and appears to be linked to a reduction in synoptic-scale variability. Using fulfillment of 50% and 90% of annual energy production to quantify interannual variability, it is shown that wind power production exhibits higher (earlier fulfillment) or lower (later fulfillment) production for periods of over 10–30 years as a result of the action of internal climate modes. Significance Statement Electrical power system reassessment and redesign may be needed to aid efficient increased use of variable renewables in the generation of electricity. Currently wind-generated electricity in many regions of North America exhibits a minimum in summertime and hence is not well synchronized with electricity demand, which tends to be maximized in summer. Future projections indicate evidence of reductions in wind power during summer that would amplify this offset. However, electrification of heating may lead to increased wintertime demand, which would lead to greater synchronization.

Coburn, Jacob↗

SDOM (Storage Deployment Optimization Model) [SWR-21-73]

SDOM is designed to accurately represent the operation of energy storage across different timescales, including long-duration and seasonal applications, and the spatiotemporal diversity and complementarity among VRE sources. SDOM uses an hourly temporal resolution, a fine spatial resolution for VRE sources, and a 1-year optimization window. SDOM assumes that all builds of VRE are accompanied by sufficient additional transmission capacity to allow full utilization of these additional resources. Nuclear, hydropower, and other renewable generation (e.g., biomass and geothermal energy sources) are fixed based on operational data (time series) for a given year; thus, SDOM minimizes total system cost using conventional generators as balancing units and using VRE and storage technologies to achieve a user-defined carbon-free or renewable energy target. The total system cost includes capital costs, fixed operation-and-maintenance (FO&M) costs, variable operation-and-maintenance (VO&M) costs, and fuel cost for power generation and storage technologies.

Guerra Fernandez, Omar Jose↗

IDAES Enterprise: Generation Expansion Planning with Enhanced Requirements for Capacity Adequacy Under Renewable Intermittency

Achieving net zero carbon emissions likely requires future power systems to integrate new, flexible energy technologies to accommodate higher levels of capacity from variable renewable energy sources. To determine the optimal deployment of new electricity capacity and to study the likelihood of deployments of new energy technologies, an expansion planning model has been developed as part of the IDAES-Enterprise suite of grid models. The Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) model is a multi-period model in which investment decisions occur yearly, and a Unit Commitment (UC) problem is examined on an hourly timescale. To reduce computational complexity of the GEP model, the UC problem is solved for average “representative days” which leaves out extreme, but relatively common, scenarios in which low renewable generation occurs, leaving the system with inadequacy in capacity. The IDAES-Enterprise GEP model has been modified to include these extreme scenarios while keeping the model reasonably tractable. Specifically, a lazy constraint technique was implemented to check for capacity adequacy on an hourly basis over a large data set of aligned load-wind-solar profiles. As a vast majority of the capacity constraints will not be violated, the technique lowers computational expense by searching for violated capacity constraints over an “iterative manner,” adding those infeasible constraints back into the model. Results on a test case of the Southwest Power Pool shows that the lazy constraint technique significantly reduces retirements and increases installments of natural gas combined cycles and flexible natural gas units. It also reduces some retirements of coal units. These modifications provide a more reasonable estimation of required dispatchable power generation capacity to ensure feasibility during peak net load.

Liu, Peng↗

Spectral characterization of flash and high flux x-ray radiographic sources with a magnetic Compton spectrometer

In this article, we present a new analysis method applied to revitalize permanent magnet Compton spectrometers used to measure photon energy spectra in the MeV range. The inversion of the measured electron distribution to determine the original photon distribution is achieved via a method of consistent coupled radiation transport and magnetic field mapping of the input photon spectra to the measured electron distribution. The method of linear least squares was used to perform the unfolding of the electron distribution to the initial photon spectra, without any assumptions made regarding the electron distribution. We present an application of this method to data from a nominal 19.4 MeV flash radiographic source (the first axis of the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydro-Test Facility) capable of generating 500 R @ 1 m in ~60 ns and a medical therapy source (a Scanditronix M22, Microtron) capable of variable energies with nominal endpoints of 6, 10, 15, and 20 MeV and an output of ~1000–2000 R/min @ 1 m. The results provide agreement between the modeled and unfolded experimentally measured photon spectra as quantified by statistical tests, from 1.5 to 20 MeV. Experimental results are presented as well as a discussion of the novel MCNP6-based simulations and methods for reconstruction of the spectra.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Generative deep-learning reveals collective variables of Fermionic systems

Complex processes of fermionic systems ranging from protein folding to nuclear fission often follow a low-dimensional reaction path parametrized in terms of a few collective variables. In nuclear theory, variables related to the shape of the nuclear density in a mean-field picture are key to describing the large amplitude collective motion of the neutrons and protons. Exploring the adiabatic energy landscape spanned by these degrees of freedom reveals the possible reaction channels while simulating the dynamics in this reduced space yields their respective probabilities. Unfortunately, this theoretical framework breaks down whenever the systems encounters a quantum phase transition with respect to the collective variables. Here, in this study, we introduce a novel generative deep-learning algorithm designed to build reaction paths that ensure that the many-fermion wave function stays differentiable with respect to the collective variables. This approach is applicable to any fermionic system described by a coherent state. We use the case of potential energy curves in the 16 O nucleus within the Hartree-Fock theory to illustrate its main features.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Methods for Representing Flexible, Energy-Constrained Technologies in Utility Planning Tools

Capacity expansion models are widely used by power system researchers, planners, and policy analysts to evaluate alternative power system investment scenarios. With the increasing deployment of wind and solar in the US, there has been much focus on improving the representations of variable generation (VG) technologies within capacity expansion models. Models that capture the variable net-load profiles and larger reserve requirements associated with high penetration VG systems represent an improvement to classic capacity expansion models, but fall short of capturing the complexities associated with storage technologies, such as battery energy storage (BES) and concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage (CSP with TES). While difficult to model in a capacity expansion setting, these technologies are potentially competitive sources of flexibility with the intriguing characteristics of being able to absorb VG that would otherwise be curtailed and directly contribute to renewable energy goals, respectively. In this paper we present methods for accurately representing these technologies in a large-scale capacity expansion model with high electrical and geospatial resolution. VG modeling techniques, including novel methods for capturing curtailment due to unit commitment and other hourly dispatch phenomena, are also reviewed. Modeling for a region in the southwestern United States demonstrates the economic relevance of being able to explicitly trade off the costs and capabilities of energy-constrained technologies, especially BES, against other resources in the near-term, in time to make plans for the coming decade

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System: Development, Test, and Validation

Providing reliable probabilistic solar radiation information is needed to improve management of the uncertainty and variability of solar generation. Thus, guidance on how to develop skillful and accurate ensemble forecasts is essential and it will ultimately contribute to integration of high amounts of solar energy on the grid. A team from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research had been collaborating to develop the WRF-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS) in the past three years to produce probabilistic solar irradiance forecasts and better predict solar energy by quantifying forecast uncertainty. The WRF-Solar EPS basically generates ensemble members for solar irradiance based on stochastic perturbations to provide intraday and day-ahead probabilistic forecasts. This study will present main research steps in developing the WRF-Solar EPS including: (a) tangent linear analysis for identifying key input variables of six WRF-Solar modules significantly related to predicting of cloud and solar irradiance, (b) combining stochastic perturbation technique with the WRF-Solar model, and (c) ensemble calibration method to decrease error and uncertainty of ensemble-based solar forecasts. The capability of WRF-Solar EPS is now updated to the most recent version of standard WRF model. This presentation will summarize comprehensive results from the evaluation of forecasts against the National Solar Radiation Data Base as well as ground-measured observations. Moreover, we will introduce the user's guide for WRF-Solar EPS (e.g., parameters to configure stochastic perturbations) and future extension of this research.

day-ahead forecast↗

Modulation of xanthophyll cycle impacts biomass productivity in the marine microalga Nannochloropsis

Life on earth depends on photosynthetic primary producers that exploit sunlight to fix CO 2 into biomass. Approximately half of global primary production is associated with microalgae living in aquatic environments. Microalgae also represent a promising source of biomass to complement crop cultivation, and they could contribute to the development of a more sustainable bioeconomy. Photosynthetic organisms evolved multiple mechanisms involved in the regulation of photosynthesis to respond to highly variable environmental conditions. While essential to avoid photodamage, regulation of photosynthesis results in dissipation of absorbed light energy, generating a complex trade-off between protection from stress and light-use efficiency. This work investigates the impact of the xanthophyll cycle, the light-induced reversible conversion of violaxanthin into zeaxanthin, on the protection from excess light and on biomass productivity in the marine microalgae of the genus Nannochloropsis. Zeaxanthin is shown to have an essential role in protection from excess light, contributing to the induction of nonphotochemical quenching and scavenging of reactive oxygen species. On the contrary, the overexpression of zeaxanthin epoxidase enables a faster reconversion of zeaxanthin to violaxanthin that is shown to be advantageous for biomass productivity in dense cultures in photobioreactors. These results demonstrate that zeaxanthin accumulation is critical to respond to strong illumination, but it may lead to unnecessary energy losses in light-limiting conditions and accelerating its reconversion to violaxanthin provides an advantage for biomass productivity in microalgae.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗