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At least 217 records · Page 12

Meridional Propagation of the MJO/ISO and Prediction of Off-equatorial Monsoon Variability

This study was examine the links between tropical heating, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)/Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO), and the off-equatorial monsoon development. We examine both observations and idealized "MJO heating" experiments employing the NASA Seasonal-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). In the simulations, the model is forced by climatological SST and an idealized eastward propagating heating profile that is meant 'to mimic the canonical heating associated with the MJO in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. The observational analysis highlights the strong link between the Indian summer monsoon and the tropical ISO/MJO activity and heating. Here we focus on the potential for skillful predictions of the monsoon on sub-seasonal time scales associated with the meridional propagation of the ISO/MJO. In particular, we show that the variability of the Indian summer monsoon lags behind the variability of tropical ISO/MJO heating by about 15 days when the tropical heating is around 60E and 90E. This feature of the ISO/MJO is reproduced in the AGCM experiments with the idealized eastward propagating MJO-like heating, suggesting that models with realistic ISO/MJO variability should provide useful skill of monsoon breaks and surges on sub-seasonal time scales.

Wu, Man Li C.↗

Satellite Retrieval of Atmospheric Water Budget over Gulf of Mexico- Caribbean Basin: Seasonal Variability

This study presents results from a multi-satellite/multi-sensor retrieval system designed to obtain the atmospheric water budget over the open ocean. A combination of hourly-sampled monthly datasets derived from the GOES-8 5 Imager and the DMSP 7-channel passive microwave radiometer (SSM/I) have been acquired for the Gulf of Mexico-Caribbean Sea basin. Whereas the methodology is being tested over this basin, the retrieval system is designed for portability to any open-ocean region. Algorithm modules using the different datasets to retrieve individual geophysical parameters needed in the water budget equation are designed in a manner that takes advantage of the high temporal resolution of the GOES-8 measurements, as well as the physical relationships inherent to the SSM/I passive microwave signals in conjunction with water vapor, cloud liquid water, and rainfall. The methodology consists of retrieving the precipitation, surface evaporation, and vapor-cloud water storage terms in the atmospheric water balance equation from satellite techniques, with the water vapor advection term being obtained as the residue needed for balance. Thus, we have sought to develop a purely satellite-based method for obtaining the full set of terms in the atmospheric water budget equation without requiring in situ sounding information on the wind profile. The algorithm is partly validated by first cross-checking all the algorithm components through multiple-algorithm retrieval intercomparisons. More fundamental validation is obtained by directly comparing water vapor transports into the targeted basin diagnosed from the satellite algorithm to those obtained observationally from a network of land-based upper air stations that nearly uniformly surround the basin. Total columnar atmospheric water budget results will be presented for an extended annual cycle consisting of the months of October-97, January-98, April-98, July-98, October-98, and January-1999. These results are used to emphasize the changing relationship in E-P, as well as in the varying roles of storage and advection in balancing E-P both on daily and monthly time scales and on localized and basin space scales. Results from the algorithm-to-algorithm intercomparisons will also be presented in the context of sensitivity testing to help understand the intrinsic uncertainties in the water budget terms.

Smith, Eric A.↗

Ocean state estimation for climate studies

Climate variabilities, which are of interest to CLIVAR, involve a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Ocean state estimation (often referred to as ocean data assimilation), by optimally combining observations and models, becomes an important element of CLIVAR.

oceanography climate↗

Accurate and Simple Parametrization to Estimate Solar UV from GHI and Other Accessible Variables

This study is part of a broader program that aims to generate reliable ultraviolet (UV) data for several applications. This work presents a simple and fast parametrization to estimate UV solar irradiation at the ground level from global horizontal irradiance (GHI) information. The work focuses on UVB (280-315 nm) and erythemic UV (UVE) irradiance weighted by the average skin response.

GHI↗

An Experimental Study of the Rainfall Variability Within TRMM/GPM Precipitation Radar and Microwave Sensor Instantaneous Field of View During MC3E

Dual tipping bucket gauges were operated at 16 sites in support of ground based precipitation measurements during Mid-latitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E). The experiment is conducted in North Central Oklahoma from April 22 through June 6, 2011. The gauge sites were distributed around Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research facility where the minimum and maximum separation distances ranged from 1 to 12 km. This study investigates the rainfall variability by employing the stretched exponential function. It will focus on the quantitative assessment of the partial beam of the experiment area in both convective and stratiform rain. The parameters of the exponential function will also be determined for various events. This study is unique for two reasons. First is the existing gauge setup and the second is the highly convective nature of the events with rain rates well above 100 mm h-1 for 20 minutes. We will compare the findings with previous studies.

Tokay, Ali↗

An Experimental Study of the Rainfall Variability Within TRMM/GPM Precipitation Radar and Microwave Sensor Instantaneous Field of View During MC3E

Dual tipping bucket gauges were operated at 16 sites in support of ground based precipitation measurements during Mid-latitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E). The experiment is conducted in North Central Oklahoma from April 22 through June 6, 2011. The gauge sites were distributed around Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research facility where the minimum and maximum separation distances ranged from 1 to 12 km. This study investigates the rainfall variability by employing the stretched exponential function. It will focus on the quantitative assessment of the partial beam of the experiment area in both convective and stratiform rain. The parameters of the exponential function will also be determined for various events. This study is unique for two reasons. First is the existing gauge setup and the second is the highly convective nature of the events with rain rates well above 100 mm/h for 20 minutes. We will compare the findings with previous studies.

Tokay, Ali↗

Design study of a continuously variable roller cone traction CVT for electric vehicles

Continuously variable ratio transmissions (CVT) featuring cone and roller traction elements and computerized controls are studied. The CVT meets or exceeds all requirements set forth in the design criteria. Further, a scalability analysis indicates the basic concept is applicable to lower and higher power units, with upward scaling for increased power being more readily accomplished.

Mccoin, D. K.↗

Application of remote sensing to the location of hydrologically active /source/ areas

Recent hydrologic research has provided theoretical support for a hypothesis generally known as the variable source area concept. However, experimental study of variable source areas has been hampered by lack of suitable methods for identifying and mapping them on a large scale basis. Field studies combined with color infrared photography and direct measurement of soil moisture and other hydrologic variables have shown that it is definitely possible to differentiate high and low soil moisture zones in a watershed. Furthermore, mapping of high moisture zones for the 1839 hectare Lowery Creek, Wisconsin drainage basin has revealed a pattern that is fully consistent with hypotheses concerning source areas. Examination of transmittance curves for high moisture zones indicates that source areas may be delineated on the basis of the ratio of their transmittance at 550 nm to that at 675 nm.

Ishaq, A. M.↗

Spectral Monitoring Observations of Two Exceptionally Luminous ULXS

The purpose of this proposal was to monitor the spectral variability of two luminous ULXs. One was awarded for study, in the galaxy NGC1365. The ULX NGC1365 X-1 is one of the few reported reaching X-ray luminosities near 10(exp 40) erg/s, and as such is a good IMBH candidate. The ULX was seen to vary in the ROSAT data. We now have 6 new observations: 1 archival Chandra observation and 5 observations we have obtained with XMM, including this proposal and a follow up XMM-Newton observation of NGC1365, aimed at studying the variable nuclear AGN. With this data set, we are studying in detail the spectral variability properties of this source. We observe a factor 4 variability among the XMM observation, with a peak luminosity approx.9 x 10(exp 39) ergs/s. There is also evidence of variability in the X-ray colors and spectral parameters. The last two XMM exposure of 60 ks each demonstrate that a simple power-law spectrum is not a good fit to the data, suggesting in both instances soft excesses, with possibly different temperatures.

Fabbiano, G.↗

Sea level variabilities in the Gulf Stream between Cape Hatteras and 50 deg W - A Geosat study

Sea level variabilities in the Gulf Stream between Cape Hatteras and 50 deg W were examined by studying sea level residuals, relative to a 2-yr mean sea level, obtained from Geosat altimetry data for the period between November 1986 and December 1988. An array of sea-level time series was constructed for a region bounded by 30 deg N and 45 deg N in latitude and by 80 deg W and 50 deg W longitude. It is shown that the spectral characteristics of this time series varies with geographic location along the Gulf Stream path. Concurrent NOAA IR images are used to aid in the interpretation of sea level observations in terms of the variability of the stream's path, demonstrating the synergistic value of the combination of satellite-altimeter and IR data.

Vazquez, Jorge↗

Uncertainty quantification in elastic constants of SiC f /SiC m tubular composites using global sensitivity analysis

Silicon carbide fiber and silicon carbide matrix (SiC f /SiC m ) tubes produced through the chemical vapor infiltration process have become a candidate cladding material in nuclear applications. The performance of this composite is influenced by many variables such as braiding angle, porosity, material properties, etc., which vary over a range of values due to the inherent fluctuations in the manufacturing process. In this study, the variability in elastic constants of SiC f /SiC m composite has been quantified through multiscale finite element (FE) simulations, variable screening, and high-fidelity surrogate modeling. The key variables dominantly affecting the elastic constants of SiC f /SiC m tubes were identified using global sensitivity analysis. A surrogate to the high-fidelity FE-based model was used in Monte Carlo simulations to generate a hundred thousand samples from which the uncertainty in elastic constants was assessed. It turned out that the coefficient of variation was less than 10%.

Materials Science↗

Incorporating Planetary-Scale Waves Into the VTGCM: Understanding the Waves Impact on the Upper Atmosphere of Venus.

Venus has proven to have a very dynamic upper atmosphere. The upper atmosphere of Venus has been observed for many decades by multiple means of observation (e.g. ground-based, orbiters, probes, fly-by missions going to other planets). As of late, the European Space Agency Venus Express (VEX) orbiter has been a main observer of the Venusian atmosphere. Specifically, observations of Venus' O2 IR nightglow emission have been presented to show its variability. Nightglow emission is directly connected to Venus' circulation and is utilized as a tracer for the atmospheric global wind system. More recent observations are adding and augmenting temperature and density (e.g. CO, CO2, SO2) datasets. These additional datasets provide a means to begin analyzing the variability and study the potential drivers of the variability. A commonly discussed driver of variability is wave deposition. Evidence of waves has been observed, but these waves have not been completely analyzed to understand how and where they are important. A way to interpret the observations and test potential drivers is by utilizing numerical models.

Venus↗

Preferential adsorption of noble gases in zeolitic tuff with variable saturation: A modeling study of counter-intuitive diffusive-adsorptive behavior

Noble gas transport through geologic media has important applications in the prediction and characterization of measured gas signatures related to underground nuclear explosions (UNEs). Retarding processes such as adsorption can cause significant species fractionation of radionuclide gases, which has implications for measured and predicted signatures used to distinguish radioxenon originating from civilian nuclear facilities or from UNEs. Accounting for the effects of variable water saturation in geologic media on tracer transport is one of the most challenging aspects of modeling gas transport because there is no unifying relationship for the associated tortuosity changes between different rock types, and reactive transport processes such as adsorption that are affected by the presence of water likewise behave differently between gas species. In this study, we perform numerical diffusive-adsorptive transport simulations to estimate gas transport parameters associated with bench-scale laboratory diffusion cell experiments measuring breakthrough in zeolitic and non-zeolitic rocks for a gaseous mixture of xenon, krypton, and SF 6 at varying degrees of water saturation (S w ). Counter-intuitive transport behavior was observed in the zeolitic rock experiments whereby breakthrough concentrations were significantly higher when the core was partially saturated (S w = 17 %) than under dry (S w = 0 %) conditions. Breakthrough of xenon was especially retarded in the dry core – likely due to comparatively high affinity of xenon for zeolitic adsorption sites – and estimated effective diffusion coefficients for all gases were approximately an order of magnitude lower than what is predicted by porosity-tortuosity models. We propose the counter-intuitive behavior observed is because water infiltration of zeolite nanopores reduces both the adsorptive capacity of the rock and the tortuosity of connected flow paths. We developed a two-site competitive kinetic Langmuir adsorption reaction for the porous media transport simulator in order to constrain transport parameters within zeolitic tuff, where differential adsorption to zeolite and non-zeolite pores was observed. We determined that liquid saturation-dependent diffusive-adsorptive transport is affected by subtle and at times competing processes that are specific to different gases, which have a significant overall influence on effective transport parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Vibration Reduction of Helicopter Blade Using Variable Dampers: A Feasibility Study

In the report, the investigation of controlling helicopter-blade lead-lag vibration is described. Current practice of adding passive damping may be improved to handle large dynamic range of the blade with several peaks of vibration resonance. To minimize extra-large damping forces that may damage the control system of blade, passive dampers should have relatively small damping coefficients, which in turn limit the effectiveness. By providing variable damping, a much larger damping coefficient to suppress the vibration can be realized. If the damping force reaches the maximum allowed threshold, the damper will be automatically switched into the mode with smaller damping coefficient to maintain near-constant damping force. Furthermore, the proposed control system will also have a fail-safe feature to guarantee the basic performation of a typical passive damper. The proposed control strategy to avoid resonant regions in the frequency domain is to generate variable damping force in combination with the supporting stiffness to manipulate the restoring force and conservative energy of the controlled blade system. Two control algorithms are developed and verified by a prototype variable damper, a digital controller and corresponding algorithms. Primary experiments show good potentials for the proposed variable damper: about 66% and 82% reductions in displacement at 1/3 length and the root of the blade respectively.

Lee, George C.↗

The use of satellite altimetry in the study of weakly defined and variable oceanic gyres

Most of what is known about oceanic gyres comes from studies of the two main Northern Hemisphere subtropical gyres. Also important in the overall circulation of the world's oceans are the Southern Hemisphere subtropical gyres and the cyclonic Alaskan Gyre in the northern Pacific. Due in part to their weaker surface topography signatures and their variable character, these gyres have not been observed and studied as well as the northern subtropical gyres. The combination of satellite altimetry with in situ ocean measurements will lead to improved resolution of the interannual and seasonal change in the circulation of these ocean gyres. Also, it will provide initialization input and verification for numerical modeling work designed to better understand internal gyre dynamics. The objective of this proposal is to combine satellite and in situ data in a study dedicated to a better understanding of the basic structure and dynamics of the weakly defined Southern Hemisphere gyres and the Alaskan Gyre and their roles in oceanic heat and mass transport of the world ocean. Emphasis will be on description of the Alaskan Gyre.

Born, George H.↗

Incorporating Social Vulnerability Variables in Measures to Quantify Access to Opportunities

Herein this study quantifies access to travel opportunities to understand what societal factors are linked with local access and to identify communities with reduced access. We introduce a method to compare accessibility across all census tracts in the United States that can be used across geographically diverse communities ranging from sparsely to densely populated areas. This study considers six key opportunities which we consider essential for all communities (grocery stores, public schools, daycares, primary care doctors, pharmacies, and parks), and six additional destinations which can be viewed as a social safety net (homeless shelters, women’s shelters, food pantries, libraries, vocational schools, and banks). We quantify accessibility to these opportunities within a 15 min walk, transit trip, bicycle ride, and automobile drive for every census tract in the United States, and observe a decrease in vehicle miles traveled and vehicle ownership in tracts with increased walkability. Through analysis at the census tract level, this study incorporates variables of social vulnerability with these cumulative opportunity metrics to better understand diminished accessibility as attributed to social and racial inequities. As example findings, we find decreased access to financial services in communities with high minority and limited English speaking populations, no apparent change in access for childcare in communities with high percentages of single-parent families, and potentially increased or decreased access to women’s healthcare resources for Black women depending on the travel mode.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

The Fermi All-Sky Variability Analysis: A List of Flaring Gamma-Ray Sources and the Search for Transients in our Galaxy

In this paper, we present the Fermi All-sky Variability Analysis (FAVA), a tool to systematically study the variability of the gamma-ray sky measured by the Large Area Telescope on board the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope.For each direction on the sky, FAVA compares the number of gamma-rays observed in a given time window to the number of gamma-rays expected for the average emission detected from that direction. This method is used in weekly time intervals to derive a list of 215 flaring gamma-ray sources. We proceed to discuss the 27 sources found at Galactic latitudes smaller than 10 and show that, despite their low latitudes, most of them are likely of extragalactic origin.

ANALYSIS↗

A Variable Resolution Stretched Grid Data Assimilation System for Regional Studies and Applications

The variable resolution stretched grid (SG) version of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS) incorporating the GEOS SG-GCM, has been developed and tested. The area/region of interest used in experiments is a rectangle over the U.S. with -60 km horizontal resolution and 70 layers extending from the surface to 0.1 hPa. The forecast error statistics has been reassessed for finer regional resolution. The experiments are performed for winter and summer seasons. The SG-GCM and SG-DAS experiments show that a definite down-scaling takes place over the area of interest. The SG-DAS is capable of reproducing regional mesoscale patterns and diagnostics that are not produced by coarser uniform resolution runs. The SG-DAS fields and diagnostics are used for regional forecasting, new instrument impact studies, and for validation of regional climate simulation experiments.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.↗