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At least 217 records · Page 12

A Model Tree Generator (MTG) Framework for Simulating Hydrologic Systems: Application to Reservoir Routing

Data-driven algorithms have been widely used as effective tools to mimic hydrologic systems. Unlike black-box models, decision tree algorithms offer transparent representations of systems and reveal useful information about the underlying process. A popular class of decision tree models is model tree (MT), which is designed for predicting continuous variables. Most MT algorithms employ an exhaustive search mechanism and a pre-defined splitting criterion to generate a piecewise linear model. However, this approach is computationally intensive, and the selection of the splitting criterion can significantly affect the performance of the generated model. These drawbacks can limit the application of MTs to large datasets. To overcome these shortcomings, a new flexible Model Tree Generator (MTG) framework is introduced here. MTG is equipped with several modules to provide a flexible, efficient, and effective tool for generating MTs. The application of the algorithm is demonstrated through simulation of controlled discharge from several reservoirs across the Contiguous United States (CONUS).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating cloud liquid detection against Cloudnet using cloud radar Doppler spectra in a pre-trained artificial neural network

Detection of liquid-containing cloud layers in thick mixed-phase clouds or multi-layer cloud situations from ground-based remote-sensing instruments still poses observational challenges, yet improvements are crucial since the existence of multi-layer liquid layers in mixed-phase cloud situations influences cloud radiative effects, cloud lifetime, and precipitation formation processes. Hydrometeor target classifications such as from Cloudnet that require a lidar signal for the classification of liquid are limited to the maximum height of lidar signal penetration and thus often lead to underestimations of liquid-containing cloud layers. Here we evaluate the Cloudnet liquid detection against the approach of Luke et al. (2010) which extracts morphological features in cloud-penetrating cloud radar Doppler spectra measurements in an artificial neural network (ANN) approach to classify liquid beyond full lidar signal attenuation based on the simulation of the two lidar parameters particle backscatter coefficient and particle depolarization ratio. We show that the ANN of Luke et al. (2010) which was trained under Arctic conditions can successfully be applied to observations at the mid-latitudes obtained during the 7-week-long ACCEPT field experiment in Cabauw, the Netherlands, in 2014. In a sensitivity study covering the whole duration of the ACCEPT campaign, different liquid-detection thresholds for ANN-predicted lidar variables are applied and evaluated against the Cloudnet target classification. Independent validation of the liquid mask from the standard Cloudnet target classification against the ANN-based technique is realized by comparisons to observations of microwave radiometer liquid-water path, ceilometer liquid-layer base altitude, and radiosonde relative humidity. In addition, a case-study comparison against the cloud feature mask detected by the space-borne lidar aboard the CALIPSO satellite is presented. Three conclusions were drawn from the investigation. First, it was found that the threshold selection criteria of liquid-related lidar backscatter and depolarization alone control the liquid detection considerably. Second, all threshold values used in the ANN framework were found to outperform the Cloudnet target classification for deep or multi-layer cloud situations where the lidar signal is fully attenuated within low liquid layers and the cloud radar is able to detect the microphysical fingerprint of liquid in higher cloud layers. Third, if lidar data are available, Cloudnet is at least as good as the ANN. The times when Cloudnet outperforms the ANN in liquid detections are often associated with situations where cloud dynamics smear the imprint of cloud microphysics on the radar Doppler spectra.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effects of stress upon psychophysiological responses and performance following sleep deprivation

The usefulness of psychological and physiological variables in predicting performance under stress of 48 hours of sleep deprivation was investigated. Performance tests, with subjects of different ego strength personalities, in concept acquisition, reading comprehension, word association, word memory, and anagrams were conducted, and physiological measurements of (1) the phasic and tonic electrodermal, (2) galvanic skin response, (3) thermal skin resistance, (4) heart rate, (5) respiration, and (6) plethysmographic finger pulse volumn were recorded. It was found that the changes in the pattern of performance were the result of testing subjects at times when they would normally be sleeping, and that sleep deprivation longer than 48 hours must be maintained to produce changes in simple or well learned tasks.

Roessler, R.↗

The accuracy of far-field noise obtained by the mathematical extrapolation of near-field noise data

Results are described of an analytical study of the accuracy and limitations of a technique that permits the mathematical extrapolation of near-field noise data to far-field conditions. The effects of the following variables on predictive accuracy of the far-field pressure were examined: (1) number of near-field microphones; (2) length of source distribution; (3) complexity of near-field and far-field distributions; (4) source-to-microphone distance; and (5) uncertainties in microphone data and imprecision in the location of the near-field microphones. It is shown that the most important parameters describing predictive accuracy are the number of microphones, the ratio of source length to acoustic wavelength, (L/wavelength), and the error in location of near-field microphones. If microphone measurement and location errors are not included, then far-field pressures can be accurately predicted up to L/wavelength values of 15 using approximately 50 microphones. For maximum microphone location errors of + or - 1 cm, only an accuracy of + or - 2-1/2 db can be attained with approximately 40 microphones for the highest L/wavelength of 10.

Ahtye, W. F.↗

A decision and control multi-axis pilot model based on an urgency for action concept

An all digital multiple axis, multiple input, multiple output pilot model flies five different tasks in aircraft of different classes while encountering turbulence represented by the Dryden spectral model. Six degree of freedom linearized aircraft equations of motion are used together with a generalized stability augmentation system. The pilot model consists of two parts: (1) a decision maker, and (2) a control action implementer. This decision maker selects the critical variable and predicts the error at action implementation. The control action implementer decides the magnitude of control to be applied and applies it. This system has been successfully compared with hybrid/analog man in the loop simulations of the F-5, A-7, T-33, and 707 aircraft, thus validating the all digital simulation and the decision and control pilot model.

Pollard, J. J.↗

The accuracy of far-field noise obtained by the mathematical extrapolation of near-field noise data

Results are presented for an analytical study of the accuracy and limitations of a technique that permits the mathematical extrapolation of near-field noise data to far-field conditions. The effects of the following variables on predictive accuracy of the far-field pressure were examined: (1) number of near-field microphones; (2) length of source distribution; (3) complexity of near-field and far-field distributions; (4) source-to-microphone distance; and (5) uncertainties in microphone data and imprecision in the location of the near-field microphones. It is shown that the most important parameters describing predictive accuracy are the number of microphones, the ratio of source length to acoustic wavelength (L/lambda), and the error in location of near-field microphones. For maximum microphone location errors of plus or minus 1 cm, only an accuracy of plus or minus 2.5 dB can be attained with approximately 40 microphones for the highest L/lambda of 10.

Ahtye, W. F.↗

Solar Activities Predictions: Long-Term Solar Activity

The need for long term solar activity predictions is addressed. The spatial organization of solar activity is described including applications for predictions, and ancient evidence for solar variability. Methods of predicting sunspot numbers are discussed. The inherent accuracy of the methods varies considerably, but a typical error bar 20%. The accuracy of sunspot cycle predictions is considered along with long term predictions of great solar events.

P S Mcintosh↗

Sensitivity analysis results of the effects of various parameters on composite design

Sensitivity analysis results are presented to assess the effects of a multitude of important parameters on fiber composite design and structural response. These results were obtained by using optimum design procedures in conjunction with sensitivity analyses. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the effects on composite optimum design and structural response of parameters such fiber transverse and shear properties, in situ matrix elastic and strength properties, correlation coefficients used in composite micromechanics and in combined strength predictions, processing variables, and perturbations of loading conditions. The results show that matrix properties, fiber volume ratio and small perturbations of the loading conditions have significant effects on certain composite structural responses. The remaining parameters have negligible effect.

Chamis, C. C.↗

A computer code for performance of spur gears

In spur gears both performance and failure predictions are known to be strongly dependent on the variation of load, lubricant film thickness, and total flash or contact temperature of the contacting point as it moves along the contact path. The need of an accurate tool for predicting these variables has prompted the development of a computer code based on recent findings in EHL and on finite element methods. The analyses and some typical results which to illustrate effects of gear geometry, velocity, load, lubricant viscosity, and surface convective heat transfer coefficient on the performance of spur gears are analyzed.

Wang, K. L.↗

Spatial variations in ac susceptibility and microstructure for the YBa2Cu3O(7-x) superconductor and their correlation with room-temperature ultrasonic measurements

The spatial (within-sample) uniformity of superconducting behavior and microstructure in YBa2Cu3O(7-x) specimens over the pore fraction range of 0.10 to 0.25 was examined. The viability of using a room-temperature, nondestructive characterization method (ultrasonic velocity imaging) to predict spatial variability was determined. Spatial variations in superconductor properties were observed for specimens containing 0.10 pore fraction. An ultrasonic velocity image constructed from measurements at 1 mm increments across one such specimen revealed microstructural variation between edge and center locations that correlated with variations in alternating-current shielding and loss behavior. Optical quantitative image analysis on sample cross-sections revealed pore fraction to be the varying microstructural feature.

Roth, Don J.↗

Spatial variations in a.c. susceptibility and microstructure for the YBa2Cu3O(7-x) superconductor and their correlation with room-temperature ultrasonic measurements

The spatial (within-sample) uniformity of superconducting behavior and microstructure in YBa2Cu30(7-x) specimens over the pore fraction range of 0.10 to 0.25 was examined. The viability of using a room-temperature, nondestructive characterization method (ultrasonic velocity imaging) to predict spatial variability was determined. Spatial variations in superconductor properties were observed for specimens containing 0.10 pore fraction. An ultrasonic velocity image constructed from measurements at 1 mm increments across one such specimen revealed microstructural variation between edge and center locations that correlated with variations in alternating-current shielding and loss behavior. Optical quantitative image analysis on sample cross-sections revealed pore fraction to be the varying microstructural feature.

Roth, Don J.↗

Chromospheric heating by acoustic shocks - A confrontation of GHRS observations of Alpha Tauri (K5 III) with ab initio calculations

We compare ab initio calculations of semiforbidden C II line profiles near 2325 A with recently published observations of the inactive red giant Alpha Tau (K5 III) obtained using the GHRS on board the Hubble Space Telescope. Our one-dimensional, time-dependent calculations assume that the chromosphere is heated by stochastic acoustic shocks generated by photospheric convection. We calculate various models using results from traditional (mixing length) convection zone calculations as input to hydrodynamical models. The semiforbidden C II line profiles and ratios provide sensitive diagnostics of chromospheric velocity fields, electron densities, and temperatures. We identify major differences between observed and computed line profiles which are related to basic gas dynamics and which are probably not due to technical modeling restrictions. If the GHRS observations are representative of chromospheric conditions at all epochs, then one (or more) of our model assumptions must be incorrect. Several possibilities are examined. We predict time variability of semiforbidden C II lines for comparison with observations. Based upon data from the IUE archives, we argue that photospheric motions associated with supergranulation or global pulsation modes are unimportant in heating the chromosphere of Alpha Tau.

Judge, P. G.↗

Stellar occultation of polarized light from circumstellar electrons. 4: Detached binary systems

The finite sizes of stars in detached binary systems are incorporated in the single scattering approximation of Brown, McLean, & Emslie (1978). In the absence of scatterer occultation, the predicted polarimetric variability is found to be represented by a terminating two harmonic time series, as previously found by Brown et al. (1978). When the occultation of scatterers by the light sources is included, additional Fourier harmonics are introduced. Model results are illustrated for a spherically symmetric scattering envelope centered on the primary star, in which it is found that for occultation effects to be identified in polarimetric data requires the separation of the system to be less than 10 times the radius of the primary, and for the primary to be the dominant light source.

Fox, G. K.↗