Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “unobservability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2008

Effects of Moist Convection on Hurricane Predictability

This study exemplifies inherent uncertainties in deterministic prediction of hurricane formation and intensity. Such uncertainties could ultimately limit the predictability of hurricanes at all time scales. In particular, this study highlights the predictability limit due to the effects on moist convection of initial-condition errors with amplitudes far smaller than those of any observation or analysis system. Not only can small and arguably unobservable differences in the initial conditions result in different routes to tropical cyclogenesis, but they can also determine whether or not a tropical disturbance will significantly develop. The details of how the initial vortex is built can depend on chaotic interactions of mesoscale features, such as cold pools from moist convection, whose timing and placement may significantly vary with minute initial differences. Inherent uncertainties in hurricane forecasts illustrate the need for developing advanced ensemble prediction systems to provide event-dependent probabilistic forecasts and risk assessment.

Zhang, Fuqing↗
NASA NTRS2010

Observing Solar Radio Bursts from the Lunar Surface

Locating low frequency radio observatories on the lunar surface has a number of advantages. Here, we describe the Radio Observatory for Lunar Sortie Science (ROLSS), a concept for a low frequency, radio imaging interferometric array designed to study particle acceleration in the corona and inner heliosphere. ROLSS would be deployed during an early lunar sortie or by a robotic rover as part of an unmanned landing. The prime science mission is to image type II and type III solar radio bursts with the aim of determining the sites at and mechanisms by which the radiating particles are accelerated. Secondary science goals include constraining the density of the lunar ionosphere by searching for a low radio frequency cutoff of the solar radio emissions and constraining the low energy electron population in astrophysical sources. Furthermore, ROLSS serves a pathfinder function for larger lunar radio arrays. Key design requirements on ROLES include the operational frequency and angular resolution. The electron densities in the solar corona and inner heliosphere are such that the relevant emission occurs below 10 MHz, essentially unobservable from Earth's surface due to the terrestrial ionospheric cutoff. Resolving the potential sites of particle acceleration requires an instrument with an angular resolution of at least 2 deg, equivalent to a linear array size of approximately 500 meters. Operations would consist of data acquisition during the lunar day, with regular data downlinks. The major components of the ROLSS array are 3 antenna arms arranged in a Y shape, with a central electronics package (CEP). Each antenna arm is a linear strip of polyimide film (e.g., Kapton (TM)) on which 16 single polarization dipole antennas are located by depositing a conductor (e.g., silver). The arms also contain transmission lines for carrying the radio signals from the science antennas to the CEP.

MacDowall, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Spitzer Survey for Dust in Type IIn Supernovae

Recent observations suggest that Type IIn supernovae (SNe IIn) may exhibit late-time (>100 days) infrared (IR) emission from warm dust more than other types of core-collapse SNe. Mid-IR observations, which span the peak of the thermal spectral energy distribution, provide useful constraints on the properties of the dust and, ultimately, the circumstellar environment, explosion mechanism, and progenitor system. Due to the low Type IIn rate (<10% of all core-collapse SNe), few IR observations exist for this subclass. The handful of isolated studies, however, show late-time IR emission from warm dust that, in some cases, extends for five or six years post-discovery. vVhile previous Spitzer/IRAC surveys have searched for dust in SNe, none have targeted the Type IIn subclass. This article presents results from a warm Spitzer/IRAC survey of the positions of all 68 known SNe IIn within a distance of 250 Mpc between 1999 and 2008 that have remained unobserved by Spitzer more than 100 days post-discovery. The detection of late-time emission from ten targets (approx. 15 %) nearly doubles the database of existing mid-IR observations of SNe IIn. Although optical spectra show evidence for new dust formation in some cases, the data show that in most cases the likely origin of the mid-IR emission is pre-existing dust, which is continuously heated by optical emission generated by ongoing circumstellar interaction between the forward shock and circumstellar medium. Furthermore, an emerging trend suggests these SNe "turn off" at " approx. 1000-2000 days post-discovery once the forward shock overruns the dust shell. The mass-loss rates associated with these dust shells are consistent with luminous blue variable (LBV) progenitors having similar mass-loss histories.

Fox, Ori D.↗
NASA NTRS2011

The 2010 May Flaring Episode of Cygnus X-3 in Radio, X-Rays, and gamma-Rays

In 2009, Cygnus X-3 (Cyg X-3) became the first microquasar to be detected in the GeV gamma-ray regime, via the satellites Fermi and AGILE. The addition of this new band to the observational toolbox holds promise for building a more detailed understanding of the relativistic jets of this and other systems. We present a rich dataset of radio, hard and soft X-ray, and gamma-ray observations of Cyg X-3 made during a flaring episode in 2010 May. We detect a approx.3-d softening and recovery of the X-ray emission, followed almost immediately by a approx.1-Jy radio flare at 15 GHz, followed by a 4.3sigma gamma-ray flare (E > 100 MeV) approx.1.5 d later. The radio sampling is sparse, but we use archival data to argue that it is unlikely the gamma-ray flare was followed by any significant unobserved radio flares. In this case, the sequencing of the observed events is difficult to explain in a model in which the gamma-ray emission is due to inverse Compton scattering of the companion star's radiation field. Our observations suggest that other mechanisms may also be responsible for gamma-ray emission from Cyg X-3.

Williams, Peter K. G.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Effect of Cross-Correlation on Geomagnetic Forecast Accuracies

Surface geomagnetic observation can determine up to degree L = 14 time-varying spherical harmonic coefficients of the poloidal magnetic field. Assimilation of these coefficients to numerical dynamo simulation could help us understand better the dynamical processes in the Earth's outer core, and to provide more accurate forecast of geomagnetic secular variations (SV). In our previous assimilation studies, only the poloidal magnetic field in the core is corrected by the observations in the analysis. Unobservable core state variables (the toroidal magnetic field and the core velocity field) are corrected via the dynamical equations of the geodynamo. Our assimilation experiments show that the assimilated core state converges near the CMB, implying that the dynamo state is strongly constrained by surface geomagnetic observations, and is pulled closer to the truth by the data. We are now carrying out an ensemble of assimilation runs with 1000 years of geomagnetic and archeo/paleo magnetic record. In these runs the cross correlation between the toroidal and the poloidal magnetic fields is incorporated into the analysis. This correlation is derived from the physical boundary conditions of the toroidal field at the core-mantle boundary (CMB). The assimilation results are then compared with those of the ensemble runs without the cross-correlation, aiming at understanding two fundamental issues: the effect of the crosscorrelation on (1) the convergence of the core state, and (2) the SV prediction accuracies. The constrained dynamo solutions will provide valuable insights on interpreting the observed SV, e.g. the near-equator magnetic flux patches, the core-mantle interactions, and possibly other geodynamic observables.

Kuang, Weijia↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Spitzer Survey for Dust in Type IIn Supernovae

Recent observations suggest that Type IIn supernovae (SNe IIn) may exhibit late-time (greater than 100 days) infrared (IR) emission from warm dust more than other types of core-collapse SNe. Mid-IR observations, which span the peak of the thermal spectral energy distribution, provide useful constraints on the properties of the dust and, ultimately, the circumstellar environment, explosion mechanism, and progenitor system. Due to the low SN IIn rate (less than 10% of all core-collapse SNe), few IR observations exist for this subclass. The handful of isolated studies, however, show late-time IR emission from warm dust that, in some cases, extends for five or six years post-discovery. While previous Spitzer/IRAC surveys have searched for dust in SNe, none have targeted the Type IIn subclass. This article presents results from a warm Spitzer/IRAC survey of the positions of all 68 known SNe IIn within a distance of 250 Mpc between 1999 and 2008 that have remained unobserved by Spitzer more than 100 days postdiscovery. The detection of late-time emission from ten targets (approximately 15%) nearly doubles the database of existing mid-IR observations of SNe IIn. Although optical spectra show evidence for new dust formation in some cases, the data show that in most cases the likely origin of the mid-IR emission is pre-existing dust, which is continuously heated by optical emission generated by ongoing circumstellar interaction between the forward shock and circumstellar medium. Furthermore, an emerging trend suggests that these SNe decline at approximately 1000-2000 days post-discovery once the forward shock overruns the dust shell. The mass-loss rates associated with these dust shells are consistent with luminous blue variable (LBV) progenitors.

Fox, Ori D.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Dust and Other Recent Discoveries in SN 1987A

Supernova 1987 A in the Large Magellanic Cloud is one of the most intensively studied objects in the universe and a Rosetta Stone for understanding the explosions of massive stars. Now almost 25 years old, SN 1987 A is a very young supernova remnant, a phase previously unobserved in any other supernova. In this talk I will discuss recent observations from the far ultraviolet to the far-infrared with HST, the VLT, and the Herschel Space Observatory. These data reveal new insights into the composition, geometry, and heating of the explosion debris, the shock interaction with circumstellar material, and dust in the SN 1987 A system.

Sonneborn, George↗
NASA NTRS2012

High Angular Resolution Imaging of Solar Radio Bursts from the Lunar Surface

Locating low frequency radio observatories on the lunar surface has a number of advantages, including positional stability and a very low ionospheric radio cutoff. Here, we describe the Radio Observatory on the lunar Surface for Solar studies (ROLSS), a concept for a low frequency, radio imaging interferometric array designed to study particle acceleration in the corona and inner heliosphere. ROLSS would be deployed during an early lunar sortie or by a robotic rover as part of an unmanned landing. The preferred site is on the lunar near side to simplify the data downlink to Earth. The prime science mission is to image type II and type III solar radio bursts with the aim of determining the sites at and mechanisms by which the radiating particles are accelerated. Secondary science goals include constraining the density of the lunar ionosphere by measuring the low radio frequency cutoff of the solar radio emissions or background galactic radio emission, measuring the flux, particle mass, and arrival direction of interplanetary and interstellar dust, and constraining the low energy electron population in astrophysical sources. Furthermore, ROLSS serves a pathfinder function for larger lunar radio arrays. Key design requirements on ROLSS include the operational frequency and angular resolution. The electron densities in the solar corona and inner heliosphere are such that the relevant emission occurs below 10 M Hz, essentially unobservable from Earth's surface due to the terrestrial ionospheric cutoff. Resolving the potential sites of particle acceleration requires an instrument with an angular resolution of at least 2 deg at 10 MHz, equivalent to a linear array size of approximately one kilometer. The major components of the ROLSS array are 3 antenna arms, each of 500 m length, arranged in a Y formation, with a central electronics package (CEP) at their intersection. Each antenna arm is a linear strip of polyimide film (e.g., Kapton(TradeMark)) on which 16 single polarization dipole antennas are located by depositing a conductor (e.g., silver). The arms also contain transmission lines for carrying the radio signals from the science antennas to the CEP. Operations would consist of data acquisition during the lunar day, with data downlinks to Earth one or more times every 24 hours.

MacDowall, Robert J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Space-Time Data fusion for Remote Sensing Applications

NASA has been collecting massive amounts of remote sensing data about Earth's systems for more than a decade. Missions are selected to be complementary in quantities measured, retrieval techniques, and sampling characteristics, so these datasets are highly synergistic. To fully exploit this, a rigorous methodology for combining data with heterogeneous sampling characteristics is required. For scientific purposes, the methodology must also provide quantitative measures of uncertainty that propagate input-data uncertainty appropriately. We view this as a statistical inference problem. The true but notdirectly- observed quantities form a vector-valued field continuous in space and time. Our goal is to infer those true values or some function of them, and provide to uncertainty quantification for those inferences. We use a spatiotemporal statistical model that relates the unobserved quantities of interest at point-level to the spatially aggregated, observed data. We describe and illustrate our method using CO2 data from two NASA data sets.

carbon dioxide↗
NASA NTRS2012

Observatory Improvements for SOFIA

The Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA) is a joint project between NASA and Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), the German Space Agency. SOFIA is based in a Boeing 747 SP and flown in the stratosphere to observe infrared wavelengths unobservable from the ground. In 2007 Dryden Flight Research Center (DFRC) inherited and began work on improving the plane and its telescope. The improvements continue today with upgrading the plane and improving the telescope. The Observatory Verification and Validation (V&V) process is to ensure that the observatory is where the program says it is. The Telescope Status Display (TSD) will provide any information from the on board network to monitors that will display the requested information. In order to assess risks to the program, one must work through the various threats associate with that risk. Once all the risks are closed the program can work towards improving the observatory.

Peralta, Robert A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

SN 1987A: The Supernova of the Century

Supernova 1987 A in the Large Magellanic Cloud is one of the most intensively studied objects in the universe and a Rosetta Stone for understanding the explosions of massive stars. Approaching its 25th anniversary, SN 1987 A is a very young supernova remnant, a phase previously unobserved in any other supernova. The supernova of the 20th Century is now the supernova remnant of the 21st Century. In this talk I will discuss recent observations from the far-ultraviolet to the far-infrared with HST, the VLT, Spitzer, and the Herschel Space Observatory. These data reveal new insights into the composition, geometry, and heating of the explosion debris, the shock interaction with circumstellar material, and dust in the SN 1987 A system.

Sonneborne, George↗
NASA NTRS2012

Search for Dark Matter Satellites Using the Fermi-Lat

Numerical simulations based on the ACDM model of cosmology predict a large number of as yet unobserved Galactic dark matter satellites. We report the results of a Large Area Telescope (LAT) search for these satellites via the gamma-ray emission expected from the annihilation of weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP) dark matter. Some dark matter satellites are expected to have hard gamma-ray spectra, finite angular extents, and a lack of counterparts at other wavelengths. We sought to identify LAT sources with these characteristics, focusing on gamma-ray spectra consistent with WIMP annihilation through the bb(sup raised bar) channel. We found no viable dark matter satellite candidates using one year of data, and we present a framework for interpreting this result in the context of numerical simulations to constrain the velocity-averaged annihilation cross section for a conventional 100 Ge V WIMP annihilating through the bb(sup raised bar) channel.

Ackermann, M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Resonant Transneptunian Binaries: Evidence for Slow Migration of Neptune

As Neptune migrated, its mean-motion resonances preceded it into the planetesimal disk. The efficiency of capture into mean motion resonances depends on the smoothness of Neptune's migration and the local population available to be captured. The two strongest resonances, the 3:2 at 39.4 AU and 2:1 at 47.7 AU, straddle the core repository of the physically distinct and binary-rich Cold Classicals, providing a unique opportunity to test the details of Neptune's migration. Smooth migration should result in a measurable difference between the 3:2 and 2:1 resonant object properties, with low inclination 2:1s having a high fraction of red binaries, mirroring that of the Cold Classicals while the 3:2 will would have fewer binaries. Rapid migration would generate a more homogeneous result. Resonant objects observed with HST show a higher rate of binaries in the 2:1 relative to the 3:2, significant at the 2cr level. This suggests slow Neptune migration over a large enough distance that the 2:1 swept through the Cold Classical region. Colors are available for only a fraction of these targets but a prevalence of red objects in outer Resonances has been reported. We report here on ongoing observations with HST in cycle 19 targeting all unobserved Resonants with observations that will measure color and search for binary companions using the WFC3.

Noll, Keith S.↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Localized Ensemble Kalman Smoother

Numerous geophysical inverse problems prove difficult because the available measurements are indirectly related to the underlying unknown dynamic state and the physics governing the system may involve imperfect models or unobserved parameters. Data assimilation addresses these difficulties by combining the measurements and physical knowledge. The main challenge in such problems usually involves their high dimensionality and the standard statistical methods prove computationally intractable. This paper develops and addresses the theoretical convergence of a new high-dimensional Monte-Carlo approach called the localized ensemble Kalman smoother.

recursive estimation↗
NASA NTRS2014

Missing Data and Multiple Imputation: An Unbiased Approach

The default method of dealing with missing data in statistical analyses is to only use the complete observations (complete case analysis), which can lead to unexpected bias when data do not meet the assumption of missing completely at random (MCAR). For the assumption of MCAR to be met, missingness cannot be related to either the observed or unobserved variables. A less stringent assumption, missing at random (MAR), requires that missingness not be associated with the value of the missing variable itself, but can be associated with the other observed variables. When data are truly MAR as opposed to MCAR, the default complete case analysis method can lead to biased results. There are statistical options available to adjust for data that are MAR, including multiple imputation (MI) which is consistent and efficient at estimating effects. Multiple imputation uses informing variables to determine statistical distributions for each piece of missing data. Then multiple datasets are created by randomly drawing on the distributions for each piece of missing data. Since MI is efficient, only a limited number, usually less than 20, of imputed datasets are required to get stable estimates. Each imputed dataset is analyzed using standard statistical techniques, and then results are combined to get overall estimates of effect. A simulation study will be demonstrated to show the results of using the default complete case analysis, and MI in a linear regression of MCAR and MAR simulated data. Further, MI was successfully applied to the association study of CO2 levels and headaches when initial analysis showed there may be an underlying association between missing CO2 levels and reported headaches. Through MI, we were able to show that there is a strong association between average CO2 levels and the risk of headaches. Each unit increase in CO2 (mmHg) resulted in a doubling in the odds of reported headaches.

Foy, M.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Turbulent Concentration of MM-Size Particles in the Protoplanetary Nebula: Scaled-Dependent Multiplier Functions

The initial accretion of primitive bodies (asteroids and TNOs) from freely-floating nebula particles remains problematic. Here we focus on the asteroids where constituent particle (read "chondrule") sizes are observationally known; similar arguments will hold for TNOs, but the constituent particles in those regions will be smaller, or will be fluffy aggregates, and are unobserved. Traditional growth-bysticking models encounter a formidable "meter-size barrier" [1] (or even a mm-cm-size barrier [2]) in turbulent nebulae, while nonturbulent nebulae form large asteroids too quickly to explain long spreads in formation times, or the dearth of melted asteroids [3]. Even if growth by sticking could somehow breach the meter size barrier, other obstacles are encountered through the 1-10km size range [4]. Another clue regarding planetesimal formation is an apparent 100km diameter peak in the pre-depletion, pre-erosion mass distribution of asteroids [5]; scenarios leading directly from independent nebula particulates to this size, which avoid the problematic m-km size range, could be called "leapfrog" scenarios [6-8]. The leapfrog scenario we have studied in detail involves formation of dense clumps of aerodynamically selected, typically mm-size particles in turbulence, which can under certain conditions shrink inexorably on 100-1000 orbit timescales and form 10-100km diameter sandpile planetesimals. The typical sizes of planetesimals and the rate of their formation [7,8] are determined by a statistical model with properties inferred from large numerical simulations of turbulence [9]. Nebula turbulence can be described by its Reynolds number Re = L/eta sup(4/3), where L = ETA alpha sup (1/2) the largest eddy scale, H is the nebula gas vertical scale height, and α the nebula turbulent viscosity parameter, and η is the Kolmogorov or smallest scale in turbulence (typically about 1km), with eddy turnover time tη. In the nebula, Re is far larger than any numerical simulation can handle, so some physical model is needed to extend the results of numerical simulations to nebula conditions.

protoplanetary nebula↗
NASA NTRS2014

Background Error Covariance Estimation Using Information from a Single Model Trajectory with Application to Ocean Data Assimilation

An attractive property of ensemble data assimilation methods is that they provide flow dependent background error covariance estimates which can be used to update fields of observed variables as well as fields of unobserved model variables. Two methods to estimate background error covariances are introduced which share the above property with ensemble data assimilation methods but do not involve the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation (SAFE) algorithm estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. The Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series (FAST) method constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory.SAFE and FAST are applied to the assimilation of Argo temperature profiles into version 4.1 of the Modular Ocean Model (MOM4.1) coupled to the GEOS-5 atmospheric model and to the CICE sea ice model. The results are validated against unassimilated Argo salinity data. They show that SAFE and FAST are competitive with the ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) used by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) to produce its ocean analysis. Because of their reduced cost, SAFE and FAST hold promise for high-resolution data assimilation applications.

Error Covariance↗
NASA NTRS2014

Background Error Covariance Estimation using Information from a Single Model Trajectory with Application to Ocean Data Assimilation into the GEOS-5 Coupled Model

An attractive property of ensemble data assimilation methods is that they provide flow dependent background error covariance estimates which can be used to update fields of observed variables as well as fields of unobserved model variables. Two methods to estimate background error covariances are introduced which share the above property with ensemble data assimilation methods but do not involve the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation (SAFE) algorithm estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. The Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series (FAST) method constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory. SAFE and FAST are applied to the assimilation of Argo temperature profiles into version 4.1 of the Modular Ocean Model (MOM4.1) coupled to the GEOS-5 atmospheric model and to the CICE sea ice model. The results are validated against unassimilated Argo salinity data. They show that SAFE and FAST are competitive with the ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) used by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) to produce its ocean analysis. Because of their reduced cost, SAFE and FAST hold promise for high-resolution data assimilation applications.

Data Assimilation↗