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DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of Neutron Emission Rates of Commercial 252 Cf Sources

Accurate knowledge of 252 Cf neutron emission rates is critical for modeling and fast-neutron experiments, yet commercial sources are often supplied without traceable calibration or uncertainty estimates. This report describes a method to characterize 252 Cf sources using a pulse-shape-discrimination (PSD) scintillator. The scintillator was efficiency-calibrated against a time-tagged 252 Cf fission chamber manufactured at ORNL over 40 years ago. Isotopic evolution of the calibration source was modeled using Bateman equations to account for changes in the effective average neutrons per fission at the time of measurement. The calibrated scintillator was then used to measure absolute emission rates of several commercial 252 Cf sources, revealing deviations of up to 12% from nominal manufacturer values. This methodology provides a practical approach for establishing uncertainty-quantified 252 Cf neutron emission rates, improving fidelity in simulations and supporting the accurate interpretation of measurements.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Effects of Different Footprint Sizes and Cloud Algorithms on the Top-Of-Atmosphere Radiative Flux Calculation from the Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) Instrument on Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (NPP)

Only one Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument is onboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) and it has been placed in cross-track mode since launch; it is thus not possible to construct a set of angular distribution models (ADMs) specific for CERES on NPP. Edition 4 Aqua ADMs are used for flux inversions for NPP CERES measurements. However, the footprint size of NPP CERES is greater than that of Aqua CERES, as the altitude of the NPP orbit is higher than that of the Aqua orbit. Furthermore, cloud retrievals from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), which are the imagers sharing the spacecraft with NPP CERES and Aqua CERES, are also different. To quantify the flux uncertainties due to the footprint size difference between Aqua CERES and NPP CERES, and due to both the footprint size difference and cloud property difference, a simulation is designed using the MODIS pixel-level data, which are convolved with the Aqua CERES and NPP CERES point spread functions (PSFs) into their respective footprints. The simulation is designed to isolate the effects of footprint size and cloud property differences on flux uncertainty from calibration and orbital differences between NPP CERES and Aqua CERES. The footprint size difference between Aqua CERES and NPP CERES introduces instantaneous flux uncertainties in monthly gridded NPP CERES measurements of less than 4.0 W/sq. m for SW (shortwave) and less than 1.0 W/sq. m for both daytime and nighttime LW (longwave). The global monthly mean instantaneous SW flux from simulated NPP CERES has a low bias of 0.4 W/sq. m when compared to simulated Aqua CERES, and the root-mean-square (RMS) error is 2.2 W/sq. m between them; the biases of daytime and night- time LW flux are close to zero with RMS errors of 0.8 and 0.2 W/sq. m. These uncertainties are within the uncertainties of CERES ADMs. When both footprint size and cloud property (cloud fraction and optical depth) differences are considered, the uncertainties of monthly gridded NPP CERES SW flux can be up to 20 W/sq. m in the Arctic regions where cloud optical depth retrievals from VIIRS differ significantly from MODIS. The global monthly mean instantaneous SW flux from simulated NPP CERES has a high bias of 1.1 W/sq. m and the RMS error increases to 5.2 W/sq. m. LW flux shows less sensitivity to cloud property differences than SW flux, with uncertainties of about 2 W/sq. m in the monthly gridded LW flux, and the RMS errors of global monthly mean daytime and nighttime fluxes increase only slightly. These results highlight the importance of consistent cloud retrieval algorithms to maintain the accuracy and stability of the CERES climate data record.

Su, Wenying↗

NASA NTRS1989

Radiance calibration of spherical integrators

Techniques for improving the knowledge of the radiance of large area spherical and hemispherical integrating energy sources have been investigated. Such sources are used to calibrate numerous aircraft and spacecraft remote sensing instruments. Comparisons are made between using a standard source based calibration method and a quantum efficient detector (QED) based calibration method. The uncertainty involved in transferring the calibrated values of the point source standard lamp to the extended source is estimated to be 5 to 10 percent. The use of the QED allows an improvement in the uncertainty to 1 to 2 percent for the measurement of absolute radiance from a spherical integrator source.

Mclean, James T.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Regularization and Error Characterization of GRACE Mascons

We present a new global time-variable gravity mascon solution derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Level 1B data. The new product from the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) results from a novel approach that combines an iterative solution strategy with geographical binning of inter-satellite range-acceleration residuals in the construction of time-dependent regularization matrices applied in the inversion of mascon parameters. This estimation strategy is intentionally conservative as it seeks to maximize the role of the GRACE measurements on the final solution while minimizing the influence of the regularization design process. We fully reprocess the Level 1B data in the presence of the final mascon solution to generate true post-fit inter-satellite residuals, which are utilized to confirm solution convergence and to validate the mascon noise uncertainties. We also present the mathematical case that regularized mascon solutions are biased, and that this bias, or leakage, must be combined with the estimated noise variance to accurately assess total mascon uncertainties. The estimated leakage errors are determined from the monthly resolution operators. We present a simple approach to compute the total uncertainty for both individual mascon and regional analysis of the GSFC mascon product, and validate the results in comparison with independent mascon solutions and calibrated Stokes uncertainties. Lastly, we present the new solution and uncertainties with global analyses of the mass trends and annual amplitudes, and compute updated trends for the global ocean, and the respective contributions of the Greenland Ice Sheet, Antarctic Ice Sheet, Gulf of Alaska, and terrestrial water storage. This analysis highlights the successful closure of the global mean sea level budget, that is, the sum of global ocean mass from the GSFC mascons and the steric component from Argo floats agrees well with the total determined from sea surface altimetry.

B. D. Loomis↗

NASA NTRS2019

Regularization and Error Characterization of GRACE Mascons

Loomis, B. D.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Utilizing Environmental Tracers to Reduce Groundwater Flow and Transport Model Parameter Uncertainties

Abstract Non‐uniqueness in groundwater model calibration is a primary source of uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport predictions. In this study, we investigate the ability of environmental tracer information to constrain groundwater model parameters. We utilize a pilot point calibration procedure conditioned to subsets of observed data including: liquid pressures, tritium ( 3 H), chlorofluorocarbon‐12 (CFC‐12), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ) concentrations; and groundwater apparent ages inferred from these environmental tracers, to quantify uncertainties in the heterogeneous permeability fields and infiltration rates of a steady‐state 2‐D synthetic aquifer and a transient 3‐D model of a field site located near Riverton, Wyoming (USA). To identify the relative data worth of each observation data type, the post‐calibration uncertainties of the optimal parameters for a given observation subset are compared to that from the full observation data set. Our results suggest that the calibration‐constrained permeability field uncertainties are largest when liquid pressures are used as the sole calibration data set. We find significant reduction in permeability uncertainty and increased predictive accuracy when the environmental tracer concentrations, rather than apparent groundwater ages, are used as calibration targets in the synthetic model. Calibration of the Riverton field site model using environmental tracer concentrations directly produces infiltration rate estimates with the lowest uncertainties, however; permeability field uncertainties remain similar between the environmental tracer concentration and apparent groundwater age calibration scenarios. This work provides insight on the data worth of environmental tracer information to calibrate groundwater models and highlights potential benefits of directly assimilating environmental tracer concentrations into model parameter estimation procedures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Accuracy of High Explosive Data used for Reactive Burn Model Calibration

Reactive burn models for a high explosive (HE) have three components: an equation of state (EOS) for the products, an EOS for the reactants and a reaction rate. For the products, we discuss the uncertainty in data for the planar detonation state and its release isentrope. For the reactants, the uncertainty in the principal shock locus data is discussed. For the reaction rate, we discuss uncertainties in shock initiation data (distance-of-run to detonation as a function of shock pressure), and curvature effect data (detonation speed as a function of front curvature). An important source of uncertainty for calibrating the reaction rate for a plastic-bonded explosive (PBX) results from variations in heterogeneities; that is the mesoscale structure of HE grains, binder and porosity. This shows up in the scatter of both shock initiation data and curvature effect data with small changes in initial density and initial temperature, and systematic changes with PBX lot. As illustrative examples, we use data for the conventional HMX based PBX 9501 and the insensitive TATB based PBX 9502 since these explosives have been extensively studied and high quality data are readily available in the literature.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

NASA NTRS2006

Design and Field-of-View Calibration of 114-660-GHz Optics of the Earth Observing System Microwave Limb Sounder

This paper describes the optics design and field-of view (FOV) calibration for five radiometers covering 114-660 GHz which share a common antenna in the Microwave Limb Sounder instrument on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Aura satellite. Details of near-field pattern measurements are presented. Estimated systematic scaling uncertainties (3/spl sigma/) on calibrated limb emissions, due to FOV calibration uncertainties, are below 0.4%. 3/spl sigma/ uncertainties in beamwidth and relative pointing of radiometer boresights are 0.006A(deg) and 0.003A(deg) , respectively. The uncertainty in modeled instrument response, due to the scan dependence of FOV patterns, is less than +/- 0.24 K equivalent blackbody temperature. Refinements to the calibration using in-flight data are presented.

Calibration↗

DOE OSTI2023

Binning is Sinning: Redemption for Hubble Diagram Using Photometrically Classified Type Ia Supernovae

Bayesian Estimation Applied to Multiple Species (BEAMS) is implemented in the BEAMS with Bias Corrections (BBC) framework to produce a redshift-binned Hubble diagram (HD) for Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). BBC corrects for selection effects and non–SN Ia contamination, and systematic uncertainties are described by a covariance matrix with dimension matching the number of BBC redshift bins. For spectroscopically confirmed SN Ia samples, a recent "Binning is Sinning" article showed that an unbinned HD and covariance matrix reduces the systematic uncertainty by a factor of ~1.5 compared to the binned approach. Here we extend their analysis to obtain an unbinned HD for a photometrically identified sample processed with BBC. To test this new method, we simulate and analyze 50 samples corresponding to the Dark Energy Survey (DES) with a low-redshift anchor; the simulation includes SNe Ia, and contaminants from core-collapse SNe and peculiar SNe Ia. The analysis includes systematic uncertainties for calibration and measures the dark energy equation of state parameter (w). Compared to a redshift-binned HD, the unbinned HD with nearly 2000 events results in a smaller systematic uncertainty, in qualitative agreement with BHS21, and averaging results among the 50 samples we find no evidence for a w-bias. To reduce computation time for fitting an unbinned HD with large samples, we propose an HD-rebinning method that defines the HD in bins of redshift, color, and stretch; the rebinned HD results in similar uncertainty as the unbinned case, and shows no evidence for a w-bias.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2002

The Seventh SeaWiFS Intercalibration Round-Robin Experiment (SIRREX-7), March 1999

This report documents the scientific activities during the seventh SeaWiFS Intercalibration Round-Robin Experiment (SIRREX-7) held at Satlantic, Inc. (Halifax, Canada). The overall objective of SIRREX-7 was to determine the uncertainties of radiometric calibrations and measurements at a single calibration facility. Specifically, this involved the estimation of the uncertainties in a) lamp standards, b) plaque standards (including the uncertainties associated with plaque illumination non-uniformity), c) radiance calibrations, and d) irradiance calibrations. The investigation of the uncertainties in lamp standards included a comparison between a calibration of a new FEL by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and Optronic Laboratories, Inc. In addition, the rotation and polarization sensitivity of radiometers were determined, and a procedure for transferring an absolute calibration to portable light sources was defined and executed.

Hooker, Stanford B.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Role of Imaging Specrometer Data for Model-based Cross-calibration of Imaging Sensors

Site characterization benefits from imaging spectrometry to determine spectral bi-directional reflectance of a well-understood surface. Cross calibration approaches, uncertainties, role of imaging spectrometry, model-based site characterization, and application to product validation.

ASTER↗

NASA NTRS2024

Uncertainty Budget for Detector-Based Absolute Radiometric Calibration With GLAMR

The accuracy of the absolute radiometric calibration (RadCal) for remote sensing instruments is essential to their wide range of applications. The uncertainty associated to the traditional source-based RadCal method is assessed at a 2% (k=1) or higher level for radiance measurement. To further improve the accuracy to meet the demands of climate studies, a detector-based approach using tunable lasers as a light source has been devised. The Goddard Laser for Absolute Measurement of Radiance, known as the GLAMR system, is a notable example of the incorporation of such technology. Using transfer radiometers calibrated at NIST as calibration standards, the absolute spectral response (ASR) function of a remote sensing instrument is measured with its uncertainty traceable to the International System of Units. This paper presents a comprehensive uncertainty analysis of the detector-based absolute RadCal using the GLAMR system. It identifies and examines uncertainty sources during the GLAMR RadCal test, including those from the GLAMR system, the testing configuration, and data processing methodologies. Analysis is carried out to quantify the contribution of each source and emphasize the most influential factors. It is shown that the calibration uncertainty of GLAMR RadCal can be better than 0.3% (k=1) in the wavelength range of 350-950 nm and 0.6% (k=1) between 950-2300 nm, with the exception of regions with strong water absorption. In addition, recommendations are made to refine the calibration process to further reduce the uncertainty.

Zhipeng Wang↗

DOE OSTI2024

ROSE: A reduced-order scattering emulator for optical models

A new generation of phenomenological optical potentials requires robust calibration and uncertainty quantification, motivating the use of Bayesian statistical methods. These Bayesian methods usually require calculating observables for thousands or even millions of parameter sets, making fast and accurate emulators highly desirable or even essential. Emulating scattering across different energies or with interactions such as optical potentials is challenging because of the nonaffine parameter dependence, meaning the parameters do not all factorize from individual operators. Here we introduce and demonstrate the reduced-order scattering emulator ( ROSE ) framework, a reduced basis emulator that can handle nonaffine problems. ROSE is fully extensible and works within the publicly available band framework software suite for calibration, model mixing, and experimental design. As a demonstration problem, we use ROSE to calibrate a realistic nucleon-target scattering model through the calculation of elastic cross sections. This problem shows the practical value of the ROSE framework for Bayesian uncertainty quantification with controlled trade-offs between emulator speed and accuracy as compared to high-fidelity solvers. Finally, planned extensions of ROSE are discussed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A rigorous physics-based enhanced parameter estimation (EPE) methodology for calibration of building energy simulations

Buildings rarely perform as designed/simulated and there are numerous tangible benefits if this gap is reconciled. A new scientifically rigorous yet pragmatic methodology for calibrating building energy simulations - called Enhanced Parameter Estimation (EPE) - is proposed that allows physically relevant parameter estimation rather than a blind force-fit to energy use data. Starting with a rapidly created simulation model, calibration is performed in two stages: (a) building shell calibration with the HVAC system replaced by an ideal system that meets the loads (b) HVAC system calibration with the building shell and all internal loads replaced by a box with only process loads. In the first stage, EPE identifies a small number of high-level heat flows in the energy balance, calculates them with specifically tailored individual driving functions, introduces physically significant parameters to best accomplish energy balance, and, estimates the parameters and their uncertainty bounds. Calibration is thus done with corrective heat flows without any arbitrary tuning of input parameters. Calibration accuracy is enhanced by machine learning of the residual errors. The EPE methodology is demonstrated by means of: a synthetic building and an actual 75,000 sq. ft. building in Pennsylvania. Future work needed for widespread application is discussed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Posterior Covariance Matrix Approximations

Here, the Davis equation of state (EOS) is commonly used to model thermodynamic relationships for high explosive (HE) reactants. Typically, the parameters in the EOS are calibrated, with uncertainty, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. However, MCMC methods are computationally expensive, especially for complex models with many parameters. This paper provides a comparison between MCMC and less computationally expensive Variational methods (Variational Bayesian and Hessian Variational Bayesian) for computing the posterior distribution and approximating the posterior covariance matrix based on heterogeneous experimental data. All three methods recover similar posterior distributions and posterior covariance matrices. This study demonstrates that for this EOS parameter calibration application, the assumptions made in the two Variational methods significantly reduce the computational cost but do not substantially change the results compared to MCMC.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Water vapor isotopic composition during TRACER IOP

The TRACER-Iso project took place from June 1 to September 30, 2022 as part of the intensive observation period (IOP) of the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions (TRACER) project at the main project site at the La Porte, Texas, municipal airport. The project sought to use measurements of the stable isotopic composition of water vapor to better understand cloud-aerosol interactions in deep convection in a polluted urban setting. Water vapor isotopologue and humidity measurements were determined using a Picarro L2130 Water Vapor Isotope Analyzer. The instrument was deployed in the guest van and consists of three main components: a water vapor isotope analyzer, and a Los Gatos Research Water Vapor Isotope Standard Source (WVISS), and a Los Gatos Research Dry Air Source. Ambient air samples were collected through an inlet located about one meter above roof of the shipping container. Samples were then delivered to the analyzer through teflon tubing by use of an external pump to minimize the transport time between the inlet and analyzer. The inlet tubing was surrounded by a Briskheat heat trace and insulating material to ensure ambient air samples did not fall below the dew point and result in condensation. The analyzer uses cavity ringdown spectroscopy to report isotopic ratios of ambient air samples at a frequency of 1 Hz. The calibration unit of the instrument was used in conjunction with the dry air source to periodically measure the δ values of standard waters. It uses a nebulizer to push small water droplets into a hot chamber that vaporizes the water without fractionation. This vapor was then transported to the analyzer using a built-in compressor and the dry air source, which allows each standard with known δ values to be measured at a wide range of humidity values for post-measurement calibration of ambient air samples. There are multiple sources of uncertainty introduced at different stages during the data collection and processing. These include (1) instrument precision, (2) uncertainty in the secondary standards, (3) humidity-correction uncertainty, and (4) VSMOW-SLAP calibration uncertainty. Uncertainty from each step is propagated in quadrature to calculate a total uncertainty of each isotopologue. Uncertainty was determined to be 2.3‰ for δD and 0.4‰ for δ18O.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1999

Radiometric Measurement Comparisons Using Transfer Radiometers in Support of the Calibration of NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) Sensors

EOS satellite instruments operating in the visible through the shortwave infrared wavelength regions (from 0.4 micrometers to 2.5 micrometers) are calibrated prior to flight for radiance response using integrating spheres at a number of instrument builder facilities. The traceability of the radiance produced by these spheres with respect to international standards is the responsibility of the instrument builder, and different calibration techniques are employed by those builders. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Earth Observing System (EOS) Project Science Office, realizing the importance of preflight calibration and cross-calibration, has sponsored a number of radiometric measurement comparisons, the main purpose of which is to validate the radiometric scale assigned to the integrating spheres by the instrument builders. This paper describes the radiometric measurement comparisons, the use of stable transfer radiometers to perform the measurements, and the measurement approaches and protocols used to validate integrating sphere radiances. Stable transfer radiometers from the National Institute of Standards and Technology, the University of Arizona Optical Sciences Center Remote Sensing Group, NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, and the National Research Laboratory of Metrology in Japan, have participated in these comparisons. The approaches used in the comparisons include the measurement of multiple integrating sphere lamp levels, repeat measurements of select lamp levels, the use of the stable radiometers as external sphere monitors, and the rapid reporting of measurement results. Results from several comparisons are presented. The absolute radiometric calibration standard uncertainties required by the EOS satellite instruments are typically in the +/- 3% to +/- 5% range. Preliminary results reported during eleven radiometric measurement comparisons held between February 1995 and May 1998 have shown the radiance of integrating spheres agreed to within +/- 2.5% from the average at blue wavelengths and to within +/- 1.7% from the average at red and near infrared wavelengths. This level of agreement lends confidence in the use of the transfer radiometers in validating the radiance scales assigned by EOS instrument calibration facilities to their integrating sphere sources.

Butler, James J.↗

DOE OSTI2026

MULTI-FIDELITY MODELING AND UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION OF INVERTER BASED RESOURCES IN INTEGRATED T&D SYSTEMS

Uncertainty quantification plays a pivotal role in improving the accuracy and reliability of inverter operation within modern power systems that are increasingly dominated by inverter-based resources (IBRs). IBRs, especially those operating under grid forming (GFM) control, rely heavily on a complex set of control parameters and system measurements to maintain voltage, frequency, and power balance. Traditional deterministic modeling approaches often fail to capture these parameter deviations, potentially resulting in suboptimal control actions, reduced system stability, or even instability under high penetration of IBRs. In this paper, we demonstrate the application of model calibration and uncertainty quantification (UQ) principles to an integrated transmission and distribution (T&D) model involving a GFM converter and provide a framework for prioritizing control improvements, guiding robust design, and informing adaptive strategies that can accommodate real-time variability in system conditions. The proposed approach could be valuable in enhancing the robustness of current and future power systems under increased IBR penetrations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗