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DOE OSTI2025

Short-Term Energy and Meteorological Impacts on Thanksgiving CO2 in Salt Lake City

Abstract Long-term, high-frequency atmospheric CO2 measurements at multiple sites in the Salt Lake City (SLC), Utah, reveal that annual and monthly CO2 variability aligns with a priori estimates of emissions from anthropogenic and biological sources. In this study, we investigate whether short-term fluctuations in anthropogenic emissions, as captured in the Vulcan3 dataset for the United States, can be detected in atmospheric CO2 observations. Specifically, we focus on Thanksgiving holidays, when traffic and energy usage patterns differ from the rest of November. Onroad CO2 emissions exhibit a double peak during weekday morning and evening rush hours but remain relatively low on weekends and Thanksgiving. Interestingly, CO2 mole fractions during Thanksgiving were higher than the rest of November at all SLC monitoring sites, particularly from 2008 to 2013. This increase is partially attributed to elevated energy-related emissions — especially residential sources — and meteorological factors such as weak wind speeds, cold temperature, and a low planetary boundary layer height (PBLH). While CO₂ emissions and mole fraction patterns align over time, notable spatial differences exist. For instance, the near-highway site in Murray shows the highest CO₂ mole fractions despite low local emissions, suggesting pollution transport via highways and wind advection. Random Forest model-based SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis reveals that onroad emissions dominate CO2 contributions on weekdays and weekends, while energy-related emissions play a larger role during Thanksgiving, alongside meteorological drivers such as wind speed and PBLH. Across six urban cities, CO2 emissions display a consistent pattern: residential and commercial (onroad) emissions peak during Thanksgiving (weekday) with substantial (minimal) year-to-year variability. These findings highlight that urban CO₂ variability is driven by the combined influence of emissions and meteorology, underscoring the need for integrated mitigation strategies. Additionally, multi-site measurements are essential for accurate source attribution and the development of effective policy interventions. 

Ryoo, Ju-Mee (ORCID:0000000234256296)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Messaging for Impact: Behavioral Science-Based Communication Strategies to Advance Energy Efficiency

Currently, five legal authorities require U.S. federal agencies to purchase energy-efficient products. However, compliance with these requirements has consistently been low (~55%). Recent surveys indicate that energy efficiency requirements are not communicated properly within federal agencies and energy-efficiency is not a top priority. In the constantly evolving energy industry, with many solutions for a clean energy future, effective communication methods are vital for widespread adoption of energy efficiency. We have been conducting experiments within the U.S. federal sector that test the effectiveness of messaging strategies developed by using behavioral science principles like loss aversion, framing, and herd behavior. This will identify effective communications methods that encourage energy efficiency adoption. In this study, we measure the effectiveness of different communication strategies by monitoring the web traffic of hyperlinks placed within our digital communications and outreach materials. To determine effective strategies that influence federal buyer behavior, the web traffic from subjects that received the behavioral science-based messaging (treatment group) is compared to that from subjects that received regular messaging (control group) for each of the strategies. This paper provides an overview of the behavioral science principles that we applied, data collection methods, and results of our analysis. Since the lack of effective communication of energy-efficiency policies is also a common problem in the private sector, the messaging strategies developed in this study can be applicable to other large private sector institutions

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2015

Risk-Based Causal Modeling of Airborne Loss of Separation

Maintaining safe separation between aircraft remains one of the key aviation challenges as the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) emerges. The goals of the NextGen are to increase capacity and reduce flight delays to meet the aviation demand growth through the 2025 time frame while maintaining safety and efficiency. The envisioned NextGen is expected to enable high air traffic density, diverse fleet operations in the airspace, and a decrease in separation distance. All of these factors contribute to the potential for Loss of Separation (LOS) between aircraft. LOS is a precursor to a potential mid-air collision (MAC). The NASA Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) is committed to developing aircraft separation assurance concepts and technologies to mitigate LOS instances, therefore, preventing MAC. This paper focuses on the analysis of causal and contributing factors of LOS accidents and incidents leading to MAC occurrences. Mid-air collisions among large commercial aircraft are rare in the past decade, therefore, the LOS instances in this study are for general aviation using visual flight rules in the years 2000-2010. The study includes the investigation of causal paths leading to LOS, and the development of the Airborne Loss of Separation Analysis Model (ALOSAM) using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) to capture the multi-dependent relations of causal factors. The ALOSAM is currently a qualitative model, although further development could lead to a quantitative model. ALOSAM could then be used to perform impact analysis of concepts and technologies in the AOSP portfolio on the reduction of LOS risk.

Geuther, Steven C.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Evaluating Alerting and Guidance Performance of a UAS Detect-And-Avoid System

A key challenge to the routine, safe operation of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) is the development of detect-and-avoid (DAA) systems to aid the UAS pilot in remaining "well clear" of nearby aircraft. The goal of this study is to investigate the effect of alerting criteria and pilot response delay on the safety and performance of UAS DAA systems in the context of routine civil UAS operations in the National Airspace System (NAS). A NAS-wide fast-time simulation study was conducted to assess UAS DAA system performance with a large number of encounters and a broad set of DAA alerting and guidance system parameters. Three attributes of the DAA system were controlled as independent variables in the study to conduct trade-off analyses: UAS trajectory prediction method (dead-reckoning vs. intent-based), alerting time threshold (related to predicted time to LoWC), and alerting distance threshold (related to predicted Horizontal Miss Distance, or HMD). A set of metrics, such as the percentage of true positive, false positive, and missed alerts, based on signal detection theory and analysis methods utilizing the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were proposed to evaluate the safety and performance of DAA alerting and guidance systems and aid development of DAA system performance standards. The effect of pilot response delay on the performance of DAA systems was evaluated using a DAA alerting and guidance model and a pilot model developed to support this study. A total of 18 fast-time simulations were conducted with nine different DAA alerting threshold settings and two different trajectory prediction methods, using recorded radar traffic from current Visual Flight Rules (VFR) operations, and supplemented with DAA-equipped UAS traffic based on mission profiles modeling future UAS operations. Results indicate DAA alerting distance threshold has a greater effect on DAA system performance than DAA alerting time threshold or ownship trajectory prediction method. Further analysis on the alert lead time (time in advance of predicted loss of well clear at which a DAA alert is first issued) indicated a strong positive correlation between alert lead time and DAA system performance (i.e. the ability of the UAS pilot to maneuver the unmanned aircraft to remain well clear). While bigger distance thresholds had beneficial effects on alert lead time and missed alert rate, it also generated a higher rate of false alerts. In the design and development of DAA alerting and guidance systems, therefore, the positive and negative effects of false alerts and missed alerts should be carefully considered to achieve acceptable alerting system performance by balancing false and missed alerts. The results and methodology presented in this study are expected to help stakeholders, policymakers and standards committees define the appropriate setting of DAA system parameter thresholds for UAS that ensure safety while minimizing operational impacts to the NAS and equipage requirements for its users before DAA operational performance standards can be finalized.

UAS Detect-and-Avoid (DAA) System↗

DOE OSTI2021

Transportation Hub Infrastructure Expansion: Decision Support Under Uncertainty

The Athena project (www.athena-mobility.org) has worked to investigate the relationship between the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport (DFW) and the greater Dallas area in order to better understand and therefore better inform future decision-making regarding the critical infrastructure that influence mobility between the airport and the city. Through this work, infrastructure related to curbside pickup and drop-off, parking, public transit, and the road network congestion were identified as critical to the operation of the DFW transportation hub. The infrastructure analysis and expansion aspect of the Athena project is focused on the restructuring of the CTA curb as a hierarchical curb and the building or repurposing of parking infrastructure as the interplay between these two areas. Many sources of uncertainty exist that may impact future airport and transportation hub operations, such as passenger volume growth, population demographic changes over time, electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates, and autonomous vehicle (AV) adoption rates. Due to these sources of uncertainty, we have selected for our research a modeling framework that can capture various types of uncertainty and hedge against those uncertainties in the optimization process. We analyze road network and curb congestion, the rise of transportation networking companies, trends in parking usage, existing policies around this infrastructure, airport revenue streams, and other contributing factors to enable infrastructure decision making with less uncertainty. To accomplish this wholistic analysis, we have developed a novel multi-stage, multi-period stochastic optimization model which considers the airport's decisions from 2025-2045 under different possible future macro trajectories and day-to-day variations in operational conditions captured as "annual representation of operations" scenarios with respective probabilities. This model has also been designed to leverage the outputs of various efforts under the Athena project to create a combined decision framework for infrastructure decisions. These various efforts include the route optimization model, the ASPIRES simulation, the mode choice model, and the SUMO traffic simulation. Our computational experiments of this system at scale have resulted in a working version of our infrastructure model which enables the explicit representation and consideration of various sources of uncertainty in the decision process to enable robust, flexible decision-making. This model has been effectively run on NREL's HPC system, Eagle, with large numbers of stochastic scenarios and shows promise as a scalable tool for robust consideration of uncertainties in airport planning. We have tested our model using 30,240 operational circumstances in total, resulting in a problem with more 200 million variables. This model was solved in several different configurations, and a workflow to simulate the performance of the infrastructure model results was developed and deployed. In general, our results indicate that a combination of remote parking, remote curb infrastructure, and dynamic pricing can generate revenue, reduce emissions, accommodate emerging technologies such as AVs and EVs, and manage airport passenger growth over time. We note the success of the proposed strategy depends on the data collection and forecasting abilities of DFW. We have also seen that the AV adoption by TNCs might necessitate larger amounts of remote curb. The results of this work inform strategies for airport infrastructure decision making, as well as demonstrate the value of an adaptable model, but also indicate that there are avenues remaining where further research would be of value.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying automated vehicle benefits in reducing driving stress: a simulation experiment approach

Driving is a stressful activity because of the mental workload required to maneuver a vehicle in certain travel contexts, such as congested traffic, multi-modal networks requiring complex interaction with surrounding vehicles, and aggressive driving. Autonomous vehicles (AVs), on the other hand, can reduce the mental workload by performing most of the driving tasks and providing users with a comfortable ride. This study develops a pathway model to relate different health determinants, including travel reliability, safety, driving comfort, and value of time, to Autonomous vehicles driving and studies their impact on the value of driving stress. A case study example of Autonomous vehicles simulation is used to determine the impact of these health determinants. The value of driving stress in Autonomous vehicles is estimated as a function of the value of these individual health determinants. The results show that the perception of safe or unsafe driving in Autonomous vehicles is the most important factor in changing the perception of driving stress in Autonomous vehicles. Similarly, perceptions of comfortable driving in Autonomous vehicles and reduced workload with a higher value of time also reduce driving stress in Autonomous vehicles. These results allow Autonomous vehicles adoption models to explicitly consider driving stress reduction as a benefit and can improve understanding of Autonomous vehicles adoption, which may require quantitative analysis of underlying motivating benefits, including driving stress reduction.

Khattak, Zulqarnain H.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Navigating Urban Mobility: Evaluating Infrastructure Strategies for Enhanced Energy-Efficient Access for Micromobility

Cities and communities continue to expand pedestrian and bicycle infrastructure as part of their sustainable mobility and post-pandemic recovery plans. However, the emergence of micro-mobility (e.g., electric bicycles) has created new challenges for urban transport planning. As the popularity of micro-mobility modes has grown, so have safety concerns due to rising injuries, thus challenging many cities to come up with regulatory measures that enable efficient access while minimizing negative impacts from micro-mobility. Leveraging the Open-Source Tool (Mobility Energy Productivity metric), powered by an open-source dataset (OpenStreetMap), and enhanced through the incorporation of perceived discomfort (level-of-traffic stress), this research study focuses on evaluating the accessibility implications of infrastructure planning and regulatory measures for micro-mobility. Five scenarios pertaining to level of traffic stress, sidewalk access, traffic calming, and bike lane coverage were tested in the Denver-Aurora region in Colorado. Maximum improvements in energy-efficient access are realized when allowing sidewalks for micro-mobility use. Cities and planning agencies could leverage this information to assess sidewalk use policies for micro-mobility, while ensuring pedestrian safety and ADA access. Results indicate that expansion of bicycle lane coverage yields 11% accessibility benefits for micro-mobility compared to implementing traffic calming measures yielding 3% accessibility improvements. Further, it was observed most of the population in the Denver-Aurora region is experiencing lower accessibility in-part due to presence of a high-stress connections in the network. Although not generalizable, the use of open-source data and access calculation methodology, make this analysis reproducible and transferable to other locations.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

NASA NTRS2011

Benefit Assessment of the Precision Departure Release Capability Concept

A Precision Departure Release Capability concept is being evaluated by both the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the Federal Aviation Administration as part of a larger goal of improving throughput, efficiency and capacity in integrated departure, arrival and surface operations. The concept is believed to have the potential of increasing flight efficiency and throughput by avoiding missing assigned slots and minimizing speed increase or path stretch to recover the slot. The main thrust of the paper is determining the impact of early and late departures from the departure runway when an aircraft has a slot assigned either at a meter fix or at the arrival airport. Results reported in the paper are for two scenarios. The first scenario considers flights out of Dallas/Fort Worth destined for Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport in Atlanta flying through the Meridian meter-fix in the Memphis Center with miles-in-trail constraints. The second scenario considers flights destined to George Bush Intercontinental/Houston Airport with specified airport arrival rate constraint. Results show that delay reduction can be achieved by allowing reasonable speed changes in scheduling. It was determined that the traffic volume between Dallas/Fort Worth and Atlanta via the Meridian fix is low and the departures times are spread enough that large departure schedule uncertainty can be tolerated. Flights can depart early or late within 90 minutes without accruing much more delay due to miles-in-trail constraint at the Meridian fix. In the Houston scenario, 808 arrivals from 174 airports were considered. Results show that delay experienced by the 16 Dallas/Fort Worth departures is higher if initial schedules of the remaining 792 flights are kept unaltered while they are rescheduled. Analysis shows that the probability of getting the initially assigned slot back after perturbation and rescheduling decreases with increasing standard deviation of the departure delay distributions. Results show that most Houston arrivals can be expected to be on time based on the assumed zero-mean Normal departure delay distributions achievable by Precision Departure Release Capability. In the current system, airport-departure delay, which is the sum of gate-departure delay and taxi-out delay, is observed at the airports. This delay acts as a bias, which can be reduced by Precision Departure Release Capability.

Palopo, Kee↗

NASA NTRS1998

X-33 Integrated Test facility, Extended Range Simulation

In support of the X-33 Single Stage To Orbit program, NASA Dryden Flight Research Center was selected to provide continuous communications coverage of the X-33 vehicle from launch, through landing at Malmstrom Air Force Base, Montana and Michaels Army Air Field, Utah. An extensive real-time range simulation capability is being developed to ensure successful communications with the autonomous X-33 vehicle. This paper will provide an overview of the various levels of simulation being developed to support the X-33 extended range subsystems. These subsystems include the Flight Termination System, L-Band command uplink subsystem and the S-Band telemetry downlink subsystem. In addition, the radar model developed provides continuous azimuth, elevation and range information based on the flight trajectory. The Dynamic Ground Station Analysis model developed by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, calculate the received signal strength at each ground station. This model takes into consideration Radio Frequency (RF) link parameters such as frequency, antenna gain, space loss, plasma effects and the vehicle's position and attitude at any point in time during the flight path. All three RF links are then attenuated based on this calculated level and the RF signals are sent into telemetry receivers to emulate remote sites, or the power incident on the vehicle from uplinked signals. The best source received telemetry data is then passed back to the Launch and Mission Control Monitoring System (LMCMS) resident in the Operations Control Center. The LMCMS also provides the range simulation system the uplink command combined with differential GPS corrections. Later stages will require the progressive integration of actual range hardware with this simulation effort, leading to communication between telemetry, uplink and FTS antennas at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center, with vehicle antennas mounted on the Walter C. Williams Research Aircraft Integration Facility (RAIF). Decommutated Pulse Code Modulated (PCM) data is displayed on one of the four monitors that comprise the Range Safety Officer's (RSO) station. Also displayed are instantaneous impact prediction models, and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) data for notification of other traffic in the area. Aside from initiating the flight termination command and validating communication links, the RSO station with the range simulation will be used to provide both range control and range safety officers training. The training is necessary to perform their respective functions with greater levels of confidence prior to first flight.

Sharma, Ashley↗

NASA NTRS2022

Quantifying urban, industrial, and background changes in NO2 during the COVID-19 lockdown period based on TROPOMI satellite observations

The COVID-19 lockdown had a large impact on anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants and particularly on nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ). While the overall NO 2 decline over some large cities is well-established, understanding the details remains a challenge since multiple source categories contribute. In this study, a new method of isolation of three components (background NO 2 , NO 2 from urban sources, and NO 2 from industrial point sources) is applied to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on each of them. The approach is based on fitting satellite data by a statistical model with empirical plume dispersion functions driven by a meteorological reanalysis. Population density and surface elevation data as well as coordinates of industrial sources were used in the analysis. The tropospheric NO 2 vertical column density (VCD) values measured by the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) on board the Sentinel-5 Precursor over 261 urban areas for the period from 16 March to 15 June 2020 were compared with the average VCD values for the same period in 2018 and 2019. While the background NO 2 component remained almost unchanged, the urban NO 2 component declined by −18 % to −28 % over most regions. India, South America, and a part of Europe (particularly, Italy, France, and Spain) demonstrated a −40 % to −50 % urban emission decline. In contrast, the decline over urban areas in China, where the lockdown was over during the analysed period, was, on average, only -4.4± 8 %. Emissions from large industrial sources in the analysed urban areas varied greatly from region to region from -4.8 ± 6 % for China to -40 ± 10 % for India. Estimated changes in urban emissions are correlated with changes in Google mobility data (the correlation coefficient is 0.62) confirming that changes in traffic were one of the key elements in the decline in urban NO2 emissions. No correlation was found between changes in background NO2 and Google mobility data. On the global scale, the background and urban components were remarkably stable in 2018, 2019, and 2021, with averages of all analysed areas all being within ±2.5 % and suggesting that there were no substantial drifts or shifts in TROPOMI data. The 2020 data are clearly an outlier: in 2020, the mean background component for all analysed areas (without China) was -6.0 % ± 1.2 % and the mean urban component was -26.7 ± 2.6 % or 20σ below the baseline level from the other years.

COVID-19↗

DOE OSTI2026

Spectro-Microscopic Analysis of Soot Particle Composition and Source Attribution

Ambient soot particles significantly impact Earth’s radiative balance, human health, and atmospheric visibility. Their microstructural properties depend on formation and aging mechanisms, which vary by emission source and atmospheric processes. Hence, accurately identifying sources of soot enhances our understanding of their physicochemical properties and atmospheric implications. This study used a multi-modal approach to characterize and attribute sources of submicron soot particles collected in Israel during new particle formation events, biomass burning episodes, and background atmospheric conditions. Synchrotron-based X-ray microscopy was used to map soot (elemental carbon), organic carbon, and inorganic species. Implemented atomic force microscopy showed highly diverse phase states, with soot consistently exhibiting a solid-like phase. Automated µ-Raman analysis was subsequently performed on ~690 particles, identifying three soot classes based on spectral features corresponding to the "Defect" (D) and "Graphite" (G) bands of soot. We applied two-peak and five-peak fitting approaches to deconvolute the “Defect” peaks (D1, D2, D3, and D4) and G band from average Raman, revealing varying degrees of graphitic order. The degree of graphitic order was determined from metrics such as the D3 peak area, often observed when soot was internally mixed with organic material. Raman spectral features, along with temporal variations in particle classes contributions, suggest that Particle Type 1 corresponds to traffic related soot and Particle Type 2 to less graphitic soot from biomass burning, while Particle Type 3 is associated with more heterogeneous particulate representative of soot-OC mixtures emitted during new particle formation and biomass burning episodes.

Rivera-Adorno, Felipe (ORCID:0000000273557999)↗

NASA NTRS2016

Analysis of Terrestrial Interference Protection from UAS CNPC Satellite Transmitters

Unmanned aircraft (UA) are projected to have a major impact on future aviation. Larger UA operating at altitudes above 3000 feet will require at least occasional access to non-segregated, that is, controlled airspace. In order for unmanned aircraft to be integrated into the airspace and operate with other commercial aircraft, a very reliable command and control (a. k. a. control and non-payload communications, (CNPC)) link is required. For operations covering large distances or over remote locations, a beyond-line-of-sight (BLOS) CNPC link implemented through a satellite will almost always be required. Protected aviation spectrum (aeronautical mobile satellite (route) service, or AMS(R)S) would normally be used for such a safety-critical link, however studies have shown that currently available aviation safety satellite spectrum is inadequate to support the projected BLOS CNPC link bandwidth requirements. To address this inadequacy, the 2015 World Radio communication Conference studied the possible use of the Fixed Satellite Service (FSS) to provide CNPC, including possible allocations in Ku-Band and Ka-Band, under Agenda Item (AI) 1.5. Although UA CNPC satellite links in these bands were shown to meet operational availability and continuity requirements, a serious complication exists in that there are also terrestrial service allocations in these bands, in particular, Fixed Service (FS) point-to-point and point-to-multipoint microwave digital links. During the WRC-15 study cycle, much opposition to AI 1.5 was generated based on fears that UA CNPC satellite transmitters in these bands would impose unacceptable levels of interference to the FS receivers. NASA analyzed the possible interference from the UA transmitters based on probable UA transmission and FS receiver characteristics, and UA traffic distributions and densities to determine conditions under which UA could operate without imposing unacceptable interference levels to the FS. Ultimately, UA power flux density transmission limits were proposed as a way to insure protection of FS receivers and further studies were prepared on the various proposals. This paper presents the results of these studies and discusses possible implications on future UA BLOS operations.

aircraft communications↗

NASA NTRS2014

Investigating the Impacts of a Separation Standard for UAS Operations in Enroute and Transition Airspace

Unmanned aircraft systems will be required to equip with a detect and avoid system in order to satisfy the federal aviation regulations to remain well clear of other aircraft. To comply with regulations in today’s operations manned aircraft must “see and avoid” other aircraft and use subjective judgment to determine whether those aircraft are well clear. For a detect-and- avoid (DAA) system to satisfy the requirement to stay well clear, a quantitative definition of well clear needs to be defined and evaluated. Definitions for the boundary of well clear have been proposed by the Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Executive Committee Science and Research Panel (SaRP) and the Radio Technical Commission for Aeronautics (RTCA) Special Committee 228 on Detect and Avoid Systems. This study investigates the interoperability implications of UAS using proposed well clear definitions as a separation standard for conducting operations in the national airspace system. The first analysis in the study focuses on the effect of variations in well clear definition parameters on the rate of losses of well clear per flight hour. The second analysis considers three well clear definitions and presents the relative state conditions of intruder aircraft as they encroach upon the well clear boundary. The third analysis focuses on the definition of the alerting criteria needed to inform the UAS operator of a potential loss of well clear. All three analyses are conducted in a NAS-wide fast-time simulation environment using UAS aircraft models, proposed UAS missions, and historical air defense radar data to populate the background traffic operating under visual flight rules. The results from the three analyses presented in this study inform the safety case, requirements development, and the operational environment for the DAA minimum operational performance standards.

UAS Seperation Standard↗

NASA NTRS2014

Calibration and Validation of a Finite ELement Model of THor-K Anthropomorphic Test Device for Aerospace Safety Applications

The THOR anthropomorphic test device (ATD) has been developed and continuously improved by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to provide automotive manufacturers an advanced tool that can be used to assess the injury risk of vehicle occupants in crash tests. Recently, a series of modifications were completed to improve the biofidelity of THOR ATD [1]. The updated THOR Modification Kit (THOR-K) ATD was employed at Wright-Patterson Air Base in 22 impact tests in three configurations: vertical, lateral, and spinal [2]. Although a computational finite element (FE) model of the THOR had been previously developed [3], updates to the model were needed to incorporate the recent changes in the modification kit. The main goal of this study was to develop and validate a FE model of the THOR-K ATD. The CAD drawings of the THOR-K ATD were reviewed and FE models were developed for the updated parts. For example, the head-skin geometry was found to change significantly, so its model was re-meshed (Fig. 1a). A protocol was developed to calibrate each component identified as key to the kinematic and kinetic response of the THOR-K head/neck ATD FE model (Fig. 1b). The available ATD tests were divided in two groups: a) calibration tests where the unknown material parameters of deformable parts (e.g., head skin, pelvis foam) were optimized to match the data and b) validation tests where the model response was only compared with test data by calculating their score using CORrelation and Analysis (CORA) rating system. Finally, the whole ATD model was validated under horizontal-, vertical-, and lateral-loading conditions against data recorded in the Wright Patterson tests [2]. Overall, the final THOR-K ATD model developed in this study is shown to respond similarly to the ATD in all validation tests. This good performance indicates that the optimization performed during calibration by using the CORA score as objective function is not test specific. Therefore confidence is provided in the ATD model for uses in predicting response in test conditions not performed in this study such those observed in the spacecraft landing. Comparison studies with ATD and human models may also be performed to contribute to future changes in THOR ATD design in an effort to improve its biofidelity, which has been traditionally based on post-mortem human subject testing and designer experience.

Putnam, J. B.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Emulation and detection of physical faults and cyber-attacks on building energy systems through real-time hardware-in-the-loop experiments

The increasing use of remote or mobile access, integrated wearable technologies, data exchange, and cloud-based data analytics in modern smart buildings is steering the building industry towards open communication technologies. The increased connectivity and accessibility could lead to more cyber-attacks in smart buildings. On the other hand, physical faults (e.g., HVAC -heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning faults) may have similar adverse impacts as those from the cyber-attacks on building energy systems, such as occupant discomfort, energy wastage, and equipment downtime. However, current physical behavior-based anomaly detection methods fail to differentiate between cyber-attacks and physical faults in building energy systems. Moreover, the challenge in collecting real-world threat data with ground truth has led researchers to rely on numerical models with user-defined assumptions, which may not accurately reflect real-world conditions due to the lack of in-situ experimental datasets. To address these challenges and gaps, this paper presents a flexible hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed for generating cyber-attack and physical fault datasets and demonstrating threat detection algorithms in a real building automation system (BAS) environment. This testbed combines hardware (i.e., real BAS with local HVAC controllers and a physical network) with software (i.e., high-fidelity models to represent behaviors of building envelope and HVAC energy systems), enabling emulations of realistic threats. Five HIL experiments, including one baseline without any threats, two with physical faults, and two with cyber-attacks, were conducted to generate datasets containing detailed network traffic and system states. A joint classification framework, incorporating a network analyzer and a physical HVAC fault detector, was proposed to automatically detect cyber-physical abnormalities on BAS at both the network and the physical HVAC levels. The network analyzer comprises a conditional random fields (CRF) based command validator and a statistics-based detection strategy. The fault detector employs a weather and schedule-based pattern matching and feature-based principal component analysis (WPM-FPCA) method. Evaluation of the classification using four metrics from the multi-class confusion matrix revealed an average accuracy of 90.2%, recall of 89.7%, precision of 88.5% and F1-score of 89.2%. Finally, these results demonstrate that the proposed joint classification framework can effectively differentiate between specific types of cyber-attacks (e.g., device reinitialization attack, network Denial-of-Service attack) and physical faults (e.g., air handling unit operational fault, cooling coil valve stuck) in real time for improved building energy management.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS1998

A Cognitive-System Model for En Route Air Traffic Management

NASA Ames Research Center has been engaged in the development of advanced air traffic management technologies whose basic form is cognitive aiding systems for air traffic controller and flight deck operations. In the design and evaluation of such systems the dynamic interaction between the airborne aiding system and the ground-based aiding systems forms a critical coupling for control. The human operator is an integral control element in the system and the optimal integration of human decision and performance parameters with those of the automation aiding systems offers a significant challenge to cognitive engineering. This paper presents a study in full mission simulation and the development of a predictive computational model of human performance. We have found that this combination of methodologies provide a powerful design-aiding process. We have extended the computational model Man Machine Integrated Design and Analysis System (N13DAS) to include representation of multiple cognitive agents (both human operators and intelligent aiding systems), operating aircraft airline operations centers and air traffic control centers in the evolving airspace. The demands of this application require the representation of many intelligent agents sharing world-models, and coordinating action/intention with cooperative scheduling of goals and actions in a potentially unpredictable world of operations. The operator's activity structures have been developed to include prioritization and interruption of multiple parallel activities among multiple operators, to provide for anticipation (knowledge of the intention and action of remote operators), and to respond to failures of the system and other operators in the system in situation-specific paradigms. We have exercised this model in a multi-air traffic sector scenario with potential conflict among aircraft at and across sector boundaries. We have modeled the control situation as a multiple closed loop system. The inner and outer loop alerting structure of air traffic management has many implications that need to be investigated to assure adequate design. First, there are control and stability factors implicit in the design. As the inner loop response time approaches that of the outer loop, system stability may be compromised in that controllers may be solving a problem the nature of which has already been changed by pilot action. Second, information exchange and information presentation for both air and ground must be designed to complement as opposed to compete with each other. Third, the level of individual and shared awareness in trajectory modification and flight conformance needs to be defined. Fourth, the level of required awareness and performance impact of mixed fleet operations and failed-mode recovery must be explored.

Corker, Kevin M.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Situation Awareness Implications of Adaptive Automation of Air Traffic Controller Information Processing Functions

The goal of this research was to define a measure of situation awareness (SA) in an air traffic control (ATC) task and to assess the influence of adaptive automation (AA) of various information processing functions on controller perception, comprehension and projection. The measure was also to serve as a basis for defining and developing an approach to triggering dynamic control allocations, as part of AA, based on controller SA. To achieve these objectives, an enhanced version of an ATC simulation (Multitask (copyright)) was developed for use in two human factors experiments. The simulation captured the basic functions of Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) and was capable of presenting to operators four different modes of control, including information acquisition, information analysis, decision making and action implementation automation, as well as a completely manual control mode. The SA measure that was developed as part of the research was based on the Situation Awareness Global Assessment Technique (SAGAT), previous goal-directed task analyses of enroute control and TRACON, and a separate cognitive task analysis on the ATC simulation. The results of the analysis on Multitask were used as a basis for formulating SA queries as part of the SAGAT-based approach to measuring controller SA, which was used in the experiments. A total of 16 subjects were recruited for both experiments. Half the subjects were used in Experiment #1, which focused on assessing the sensitivity and reliability of the SA measurement approach in the ATC simulation. Comparisons were made of manual versus automated control. The remaining subjects were used in the second experiment, which was intended to more completely describe the SA implications of AA applied to specific controller information processing functions, and to describe how the measure could ultimately serve as a trigger of dynamic function allocations in the application of AA to ATC. Comparisons were made of the sensitivity of the SA measure to automation manipulations impacting both higher-order information processing functions, such as information analysis and decision making, versus lower-order functions, including information acquisition and action implementation. All subjects were exposed to all forms of AA of the ATC task and the manual control condition. The approach to AA used in both experiments was to match operator workload, assessed using a secondary task, to dynamic control allocations in the primary task. In total, the subjects in each experiment participated in 10 trials with each lasting between 45 minutes and 1 hour. In both experiments, ATC performance was measured in terms of aircraft cleared, conflicting, and collided. Secondary task (gauge monitoring) performance was assessed in terms of a hit-to-signal ratio. As part of the SA measure, three simulation freezes were conducted during each trial to administer queries on Level 1, 2, and 3 SA.

Kaber, David B.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Airport Pricing Strategies

Conventional economic wisdom suggests that congestion pricing would be an appropriate response to cope with the growing congestion levels currently experienced at many airports. Several characteristics of aviation markets, however, may make naive congestion prices equal to the value of marginal travel delays a non-optimal response. This paper has developed a model of airport pricing that captures a number of these features. The model in particular reflects that airlines typically have market power and are engaged in oligopolistic competition at different sub-markets; that part of external travel delays that aircraft impose are internal to an operator and hence should not be accounted for in congestion tolls. We presented an analytical treatment for a simple bi-nodal symmetric network, which through the use of 'hyper-networks' would be readily applicable to dynamic problems (in discrete time) such as peak - off-peak differences, and some numerical exercises for the same symmetric network, which was only designed to illustrate the possible comparative static impacts of tolling, in addition to marginal equilibrium conditions as could be derived for the general model specification. Some main conclusions are that second-best optimal tolls are typically lower than what would be suggested by congestion costs alone and may even be negative, and that the toll as derived by Brueckner (2002) may not lead to an increase in total welfare. While Brueckner (2002) has made clear that congestion tolls on airports may be smaller than expected when congestion costs among aircraft are internal for a firm, our analysis adds to this that a further downward adjustment may be in order due to market power. The presence of market power (which causes prices to exceed marginal costs) may cause the pure congestion toll to be suboptimal, because the resulting decrease in demand is too high (the pure congestion tall does not take into account the decrease in consumer surplus). The various downward adjustments in welfare maximizing tolls may well cause the optimal values of these to be negative. Insofar as subsidization is considered unacceptable for whichever reason, our results warn that the most efficient among the non-negative tolls may actually be a zero toll; the pure congestion toll may actually decrease welfare compared to the base case. The model in this paper contains a few simplifying assumptions that may be relaxed in future work. Load factors and aircraft capacity are fixed in this model for simplicity. In a more advanced version of this model, load factors and aircraft capacity can be endogenized. This makes the derivation of the optimality conditions far more complicated, but it should be feasible in a numerical experiment. One can also add a fourth layer to the model, describing the airport's optimization problem. For example, the airport can maximize profits under a cost recovery constraint. The model then deals with interactions between four types of agents. No distinction is made between peak and off-peak traffic in this paper. Finally, the results of the numerical exercise in this paper need to be checked against an asymmetric equilibrium.

Pels, Eric↗