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NASA NTRS2017

Gaining the most utility from our geospace observational system: Network analysis of total electron content as a means to understand space weather to the point of prediction

We present the first network analysis of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) clock angle dependent, high-latitude, hemispheric-specific total electron content (TEC) data. We examine network parameters to describe spatio-temporal correlations in the TEC data for January 2016. We find that significant network structure exists distinguishing the dayside and nightside ionosphere, and specific features in the high-latitudes (cusp/ionospheric footpoints of magnetospheric boundary layers, polar cap, and auroral zone), and that these features vary with IMF clock angle. In this brief summary paper, we provide proof of concept results and identify important areas of future research, providing a basis for the discussion of network analysis and machine learning approaches for space weather applications.

Malik, Nishant↗

NASA NTRS2019

Shortsighted Evolution Constrains the Efficacy of Long-Term Bet Hedging

To survive unpredictable environmental change, many organisms adopt bet-hedging strategies that are initially costly but provide a long-term fitness benefit. The temporal extent of these deferred fitness benefits determines whether bet-hedging organisms can survive long enough to realize them. In this article, we examine a model of microbial bet hedging in which there are two paths to extinction: unpredictable environmental change and demographic stochasticity. In temporally correlated environments, these drivers of extinction select for different switching strategies. Rapid phenotype switching ensures survival in the face of unpredictable environmental change, while slower-switching organisms become extinct. However, when both switching strategies are present in the same population, then demographic stochasticity—enforced by a limited population size—leads to extinction of the faster-switching organism. As a result, we find a novel form of evolutionary suicide whereby selection in a fluctuating environment can favor bet-hedging strategies that ultimately increase the risk of extinction. Population structures with multiple subpopulations and dispersal can reduce the risk of extinction from unpredictable environmental change and shift the balance so as to facilitate the evolution of slower-switching organisms.

Bet hedging↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A NASA GISTEMP Observational Uncertainty Ensemble: Regional and Monthly Uncertainty

The historical global temperature record is an essential data product for quantifying the variability and change of the Earth system. In recent years, better characterization of observational uncertainty in global and hemispheric trends has become available, but the methodologies are not necessarily applicable to analyses at smaller regional areas, or monthly means, where station sparsity and other systematic issues contribute to greater uncertainty. This work details a gridded uncertainty ensemble of historical temperature anomalies from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Surface Temperature product (GISTEMP) product. This ensemble characterizes the complex spatial and temporal correlation structure of uncertainty in gridded historical temperature, enabling proper uncertainty propagation for climate and social science at regional and monthly scales. This work details the methodology for generating the uncertainty ensemble, key statistics of the uncertainty evolution over space and time, and provides best practices for using the uncertainty ensemble in future studies. Summary statistics from the uncertainty ensemble are in good agreement with production GISTEMP. Two applications of the uncertainty ensemble are also presented. First, the warmest year on record is shown to most likely be 2016 with a 53.2% chance and 2020 as the second most likely with a 44.4% chance. Second, it is shown that the arctic is warming 2.5 - 5 times faster than the globe, significantly faster than the regularly quoted twice as fast.

GISTEMP↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Seasonal Prediction of an Extreme Temperature Index over the United States

Heat extremes have the potential to cause significant societal harm; advanced warming of the frequency of these events for a given season could help with planning and mitigation measures. While an individual temperature extreme event may not be predictable on seasonal time scales, the number of such events could be. In this study, we use an index representing the number of extreme days per summer to examine the ability of NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction system to predict summertime temperature extremes over the continental United States. The index is defined as the number of days per summer (June-August) where the daily mean temperature is above the calendar-day 90th percentile and is computed for 1991-2020 using the GEOS-S2S seasonal retrospective forecasts as well as the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2). Temporal correlations are assessed over this period at the grid point scale, indicating significant correlation between the retrospective forecasts and MERRA-2, particularly in the western half of the United States. Spatial correlations between the retrospective forecast and MERRA-2 indices are computed over the United States for each year revealing year-to-year variability in the forecast skill. We investigate local and remote processes associated with increased prediction skill of summertime temperature extremes in a given year.

Natalie Thomas↗

NASA NTRS2024

Sentinel-1 Snow Depth Assimilation to Improve River Discharge Estimates in the Western European Alps

Seasonal snow is an important water source and contributor to river discharge in mountainous regions. Therefore the amount of snow and its distribution are necessary inputs for hydrological modeling. Recent research has shown the potential of the Sentinel-1 radar satellite to map snow depth (SD) at sub-kilometer resolution in mountainous regions. In this study we assimilate these new SD retrievals into the Noah-Multiparameterization land surface model using an ensemble Kalman filter for the western European Alps. The land surface model was coupled to the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP), a global flow routing scheme that provides simulations of routed river discharge. The performance with different precipitation forcing inputs, namely MERRA-2 (with and without gauge based correction) and ERA5, was compared based on in situ precipitation and SD stations, with ERA5 leading to the best SD performance. The Sentinel-1 based data assimilation (DA) results show small but systematic improvements for SD estimates, with the mean absolute error reducing from 36.4 cm for the open loop (OL) to 35.6 cm for the DA across all stations and timesteps, improving 318 out of 516 in situ sites. The DA updates in SD also result in enhanced snow water equivalent and discharge simulations. The median temporal correlation between discharge simulations and measurements increases from 0.73 to 0.78 for the DA. This study demonstrates the utility of the Sentinel-1 SD retrievals to improve not only the representation of snow in mountain ranges, but also the snow melt contribution to river discharge, and hydrological modeling in general.

Isis Brangers↗

DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Assessment of High-Renewables Power Systems: Current Work and Future Directions

In a future with higher penetrations of variable and energy-limited resources, the dominant sources of resource adequacy risk begin to shift from (assumed) independent thermal unit outages to spatially- and temporally-correlated weather-driven phenomena. Traditional resource adequacy assessment and planning methods can be ill-suited to such scenarios. This presentation will highlight aspects of NREL's work in adapting and developing new probabilistic methods and tools in anticipation of the needs of the power system planning exercises of tomorrow.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Lithium Metal Electrode — Understanding Its Unique Characteristics and Functions

Lithium metal electrode (LME) is attractive for the next generation of commercial high-energy rechargeable lithium battery (RLB) design and development. As a light element with a very reducing electrochemical potential, Li metal certainly has the unique characteristics that also present challenges for its application in RLBs. To overcome technical barriers with LME such as the dendrite formation that causes uneven current distributions, excessive SEI formation that consumes Li inventory, and formation of inactive Li metal in granular forms that induces safety hazards, more fundamental understanding of the unique characteristics of LME and its impact on functions in performance in RLBs is critical. Here, we present some recent work based on temporally-correlated reactive molecular dynamics simulations to understand the Li deposition and the associated nucleation and growth process on the LME or graphitic electrode surfaces. Such a study provides some intriguing perspectives on how Li reacts with electrolytes on LME and conventional graphitic electrodes in the RLB operation. Such an insight could help improving our strategy to deal with LME problems and provide functional improvements for LME’s application in RLBs. This presentation is dedicated to Professor Robert Huggins for his life-long teaching of the fundamentals on solid state ionics and its implications in understanding the electrochemical behavior of Li in RLB applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2020

India Solar Resource Data: National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB)

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) provides high-resolution solar radiation data for long periods of time, which allows user to have a clear understanding of the spatial and temporal correlation of the data to determine the true impact of solar variability on the grid. This fact sheet specifically outlines solar resource data for India included in NSRDB.

energy systems↗

DOE OSTI2023

Spatio-Temporal Denoising Graph Autoencoders with Data Augmentation for Missing Photovoltaic Data Imputation

The integration of the global Photovoltaic (PV) market with real time data-loggers has enabled large scale PV data analytical pipelines for power forecasting and long-term reliability assessment of PV fleets. Nevertheless, the performance of PV data analysis heavily depends on the quality of PV timeseries data. This paper proposes a novel Spatio-Temporal Denoising Graph Autoencoder (STD-GAE) framework to impute missing PV Power Data. STDGAE exploits temporal correlation, spatial coherence, and value dependencies from domain knowledge to recover missing data. It is empowered by two modules. (1) To cope with sparse yet various scenarios of missing data, STD-GAE incorporates a domain-knowledge aware data augmentation module that creates plausible variations of missing data patterns. This generalizes STD-GAE to robust imputation over different seasons and environment. (2) STD-GAE nontrivially integrates spatiotemporal graph convolution layers (to recover local missing data by observed “neighboring” PV plants) and denoising autoencoder (to recover corrupted data from augmented counterpart) to improve the accuracy of imputation accuracy at PV fleet level. We have evaluated our proposed model on two realworld PV datasets. Experimental results show that STD-GAE can achieve a gain of 43.14% in imputation accuracy and remains less sensitive to missing rate, different seasons, and missing scenarios, compared with state-of-the-art data imputation methods such as MIDA and LRTC-TNN.

Fan, Yangxin↗

DOE OSTI2026

Constraining high-energy neutrinos from tidal disruption events with IceCube high-energy starting events

Tidal disruption events (TDEs) have been proposed as candidate sources of high-energy neutrinos. Successful and choked jets, as well as the accretion disk, corona, wind, and outflow regions in a TDE have been examined and shown to produce TeV - PeV neutrinos. In this work, we use the IceCube 12.5 year high energy starting events (HESE) dataset and perform a maximum likelihood analysis to investigate the spatial and temporal correlations between HESE dataset and a selected sample of 89 TDEs. Our results indicate that the currently observed data do not show any significant correlation and hence is consistent with the background only hypothesis. Using this result, we place constraints on the fraction of TDEs harboring intrinsic jets ($f_{\rm jet}$) and the corresponding isotropic-equivalent cosmic ray (CR) energy ($\mathcal{E}_{\rm CR}$). We note that even with limited statistics, we can constrain the parameter space as $\mathcal{E}_{\rm CR} \lesssim 3 \times 10^{53}$ erg for $f_{\rm jet} \gtrsim 0.6$ at more than 90% C.L. Finally, we discuss the theoretical implications of our results and the limits on the all-sky diffuse neutrino flux from TDEs. With more observational data in the electromagnetic band for TDEs and neutrino observations from IceCube and KM3NeT, our analysis can be used to place stringent constraints on physical parameters associated with TDEs.

Mukhopadhyay, Mainak [Fermilab; Chicago U., KICP; ↗

NASA NTRS2018

Spatial Correlation Structures in SMAP Near-Surface Soil Moisture (How Spatially Correlated are the Temporal Variations of Soil Moisture at Different Locations? and Why Is This of Interest?)

Spatial correlation structures can describe the degree to which soil moisture at a specified location co-varies in time with that at other, remote locations. Using four years of warm season SMAP Level 2 near-surface soil moisture data, we compute these spatial correlation structures for points across North America. The character of these structures is seen to differ geographically; the structures found for the west-central US, for example, are significantly more spatially extensive. We then demonstrate how these structures can potentially be used to reconstruct soil moisture fields during the pre-SMAP era. In this exercise, we consider as "truth" the soil moistures produced in a long-term offline land surface model simulation (1980-2014) that utilizes precipitation forcing based on a high density of precipitation gauges. Then, for a given location within the continent, we construct an"estimated" soil moisture time series based solely on historical soil moisture information simulated at least 300 km distant from the location, using the SMAP-based spatial correlation structures to determine how to make best use of the remote information. The reconstructed soil moistures are found to have significant skill relative to the assumed truth, suggesting that the same approach, when applied in areas of low rain gauge density (i.e., in areas for which historically simulated soil moistures are necessarily inaccurate), could provide useful historical soil moisture estimates through the SMAP-guided extraction of relevant information from neighboring gauged regions.

Koster, Randal↗

NASA NTRS1995

A similarity hypothesis for the two-point correlation tensor in a temporally evolving plane wake

The analysis demonstrated that the governing equations for the two-point velocity correlation tensor in the temporally evolving wake admit similarity solutions, which include the similarity solutions for the single-point moment as a special case. The resulting equations for the similarity solutions include two constants, beta and Re(sub sigma), that are ratios of three characteristic time scales of processes in the flow: a viscous time scale, a time scale characteristic of the spread rate of the flow, and a characteristic time scale of the mean strain rate. The values of these ratios depend on the initial conditions of the flow and are most likely measures of the coherent structures in the initial conditions. The occurrences of these constants in the governing equations for the similarity solutions indicates that these solutions, in general, will only be the same for two flows if these two constants are equal (and hence the coherent structures in the flows are related). The comparisons between the predictions of the similarity hypothesis and the data presented here and elsewhere indicate that the similarity solutions for the two-point correlation tensors provide a good approximation of the measures of those motions that are not significantly affected by the boundary conditions caused by the finite extent of real flows. Thus, the two-point similarity hypothesis provides a useful tool for both numerical and physical experimentalist that can be used to examine how the finite extent of real flows affect the evolution of the different scales of motion in the flow.

Ewing, D. W.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Identifying Optimal Temporal Scale for the Correlation of AOD and Ground Measurements of PM2.5 to Improve the Model Performance in a Real-time Air Quality Estimation System

Aerosol optical depth (AOD), an indirect estimate of particle matter using satellite observations, has shown great promise in improving estimates of PM 2.5 air quality surface. Currently, few studies have been conducted to explore the optimal way to apply AOD data to improve the model accuracy of PM 2.5 surface estimation in a real-time air quality system. We believe that two major aspects may be worthy of consideration in that area: 1) the approach to integrate satellite measurements with ground measurements in the pollution estimation, and 2) identification of an optimal temporal scale to calculate the correlation of AOD and ground measurements. This paper is focused on the second aspect on the identifying the optimal temporal scale to correlate AOD with PM2.5. Five following different temporal scales were chosen to evaluate their impact on the model performance: 1) within the last 3 days, 2) within the last 10 days, 3) within the last 30 days, 4) within the last 90 days, and 5) the time period with the highest correlation in a year. The model performance is evaluated for its accuracy, bias, and errors based on the following selected statistics: the Mean Bias, the Normalized Mean Bias, the Root Mean Square Error, Normalized Mean Error, and the Index of Agreement. This research shows that the model with the temporal scale of within the last 30 days displays the best model performance in this study area using 2004 and 2005 data sets.

Li, Hui↗

NASA NTRS2008

Identifying Optimal Temporal Scale for the Correlation of AOD and Ground Measurements of PM2.5 to Improve the Modeling Performance in a Real-Time Air Quality Estimation System

Aerosol optical depth (AOD), derived from satellite measurements using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS), offers indirect estimates of particle matter. Research shows a significant positive correlation between satellite-based measurements of AOD and ground-based measurements of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5). In addition, satellite observations have also shown great promise in improving estimates of PM2.5 air quality surface. Research shows that correlations between AOD and ground PM2.5 are affected by a combination of many factors such as inherent characteristics of satellite observations, terrain, cloud cover, height of the mixing layer, and weather conditions, and thus might vary widely in different regions, different seasons, and even different days in a same location. Analysis of correlating AOD with ground measured PM2.5 on a day-to-day basis suggests the temporal scale, a number of immediate latest days for a given run's day, for their correlations needs to be considered to improve air quality surface estimates, especially when satellite observations are used in a real-time pollution system. The second reason is that correlation coefficients between AOD and ground PM2.5 cannot be predetermined and needs to be calculated for each day's run for a real-time system because the coefficients can vary over space and time. Few studies have been conducted to explore the optimal way to apply AOD data to improve model accuracies of PM2.5 surface estimation in a real-time air quality system. This paper discusses the best temporal scale to calculate the correlation of AOD and ground particle matter data to improve the results of pollution models in real-time system.

Li,Hui↗

DOE OSTI2025

Resolving the dynamic correlated disorder in KTa 1- x Nb x O 3

Understanding the complex temporal and spatial correlations of ions in disordered perovskite oxides is critical to rationalize their functional properties. Here, in this study, we provide new insights into the longstanding controversy regarding the off-centering of transition metal ions in the archetypal ferroelectric alloy KTa 1-x Nb x O 3 (KTN). By mapping the full energy (E) and wavevector (Q) dependence of the dynamical structure factor S(Q, E) using neutron scattering, and rationalizing our observations with atomistic simulations leveraging machine learning, we fully resolve the static vs dynamic nature of diffuse scattering sheets, as well as their composition (x) and temperature dependence. Our first-principles simulations, extended with machine-learning molecular dynamics, reproduce both inelastic neutron spectra and diffuse features, and establish how dynamically-correlated transition metal off-centerings couple to phonons, unifying local and collective viewpoints. This study sheds new light into an exemplary ferroelectric systems and shows the importance of mapping the full S(Q, E) to reveal critical spatio-temporal correlations of atomic disorder from which functional properties emerge.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2010

Time-Distance Helioseismology

Time-distance helioseismology is a method of ambient noise imaging using the solar oscillations. The basic realization that led to time-distance helioseismology was that the temporal cross correlation of the signals at two 'surface' (or photospheric) locations should show a feature at the time lag corresponding to the subsurface travel time between the locations. The temporal cross correlation, as a function of the location separation, is the Fourier transform of the spatio-temporal power spectrum of the solar oscillations, a commonly used function in helioseismology. It is therefore likely the characteristic ridge structure of the correlation function had been seen before without appreciation of its significance. Travel times are measured from the cross correlations. The times are sensitive to a number of important subsurface solar phenomena. These include sound speed variations, flows, and magnetic fields. There has been much interesting progress in the 17 years since the first paper on this subject (Duvall et al., Nature, 1993, 362, 430-432). This progress will be reviewed in this paper.

Duvall, Thomas L., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Temporal development of the correlation between ozone and potential vorticity in the Arctic in the winters of 1988/1989, 1989/1990, and 1990/1991

Ozone sonde data of the winters 1988/89, 1989/90, and 1990/91 from a group of Arctic stations are used in this study. The ozone mixing ratio on several isentropic surfaces is correlated to the potential vorticity (P). The P is based on the initialized analysis data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Similar investigations were made by Lait et al. (Geophys. Res. Lett., 17, 521-524, March Supplement 1990) for the AASE campaign (January and February 1989), showing how the ozone mixing ratio varies with the distance to the edge of the vortex. Their findings are confirmed and extended to the following two winters. Furthermore we have studied the temporal development of the P-ozone correlations during these winters in order to recognize any chemical ozone depletion.

Knudsen, Bjorn↗

NASA NTRS2017

North Polar Radiative Flux Variability from 2002 Through 2014

NASA's Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project produces the SYN1Deg data product. SYN1deg provides global, 1deg gridded, hourly estimates of Top of Atmosphere (TOA) (CERES observations and calculations) and atmospheric and surface radiative flux (calculations). Examples of 12 year North Polar averages of some variables are shown to the right. Given recent interest in polar science we focus here on TOA and Surface validation of calculated irradiant fluxes. TOA upward longwave irradiance calculations match the CERES observations well both spatially and temporally with correlations remaining strong through PC 6. Compare SYN1Deg Calculations & Meteorological Teleconnections. TOA reflected shortwave irradiance calculations match the CERES observations well both spatially and temporally with correlations remaining string through PC 7. Comparing SYN1Deg calculations to teleconnection patterns requires expanding the area to 30N for EOF analyses. Correlating the Principal Components of various variables to teleconnection time series indicates which variable is most highly correlated with which teleconnection signal. The tables indicate the Pacific North American Oscillation is most correlated to the OLR EOF 1, and the North American Oscillation is correlated most closely to surface LW flux down EOF 1.

Rutan, David↗