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At least 217 records · Page 12

The Climates of Earth's Next Supercontinent: Effects of Tectonics, Rotation Rate, & Insolation

We investigate two possible deep future Earth climate scenarios using a 3-D GCM, 200 and 250 million years into the future when the next supercontinent phase is expect to take place. We use knowledge of the evolution of plate tectonics, solar luminosity, and rotation rate over this time period. In one scenario, a supercontinent forms at low latitudes. In the other scenario it forms at high northerly latitudes with an Antarctic subcontinent remaining at the south pole. The climates differences between these two scenarios are dramatic, with differences in mean surface temperatures approaching 4 degrees. The fractional habitability (where mean surface temperatures are between 0<T<100C year round) on land surfaces (as opposed to the ocean) is shown to differ up to 40% between the two simulations. We believe these demonstrate that the community needs to consider alternative boundary conditions when simulating Earth-like exoplanetary climates.

tectonics↗

Tectonics and Water on Europa

Europa, the satellite of Jupiter, probably hosts a subsurface water ocean but the thickness of the outer ice crust is poorly constrained and the role of liquid water in its complex tectonics is debated.

Europa↗

Earth's next supercontinent climate: how tectonics, rotation rate, & insolation affect climate

We will explore two deep future Earth climate scenarios using a 3‐D GCM when the next supercontinent phase is expected to take place. In Amasia (Americas + Asia; forming ~200 Myr from now) the supercontinent forms at high northerly latitudes with the main continents 'squished' north of the equator while an Antarctic subcontinent remains at the south pole. In Aurica (All continents combined ~250 Myr) a supercontinent forms at low latitudes akin to that of a Sturtian topography. We utilize the forward evolution of plate tectonics, solar luminosity, rotation rate, and different potential topographic heights in our study. The climates between these scenarios can be dramatic, with differences in mean surface temperatures approaching several degrees. In particular, the topographic height of the Amasia supercontinent plays a critical role in the climate. These results demonstrate that using simple aquaplanet or modern Earth land/sea masks is insufficient to explore the possible variance in theoretical modeling of extrasolar planetary atmospheres.

supercontinent climate↗

The Climates of Earth's Next Supercontinent: Effects of Tectonics, Rotation Rate, and Insolation

We explore two possible Earth climate scenarios, 200 and 250 million years into the future, using projections of the evolution of plate tectonics, solar luminosity, and rotation rate. In one scenario, a supercontinent forms at low latitudes, whereas in the other it forms at high northern latitudes with an Antarctic subcontinent remaining at the south pole. The climates between these two end points are quite stark, with differences in mean surface temperatures approaching several degrees. The main factor in these differences is related to the topographic height of the high latitude supercontinents where higher elevations promote snowfall and subsequent higher planetary albedos. These results demonstrate the need to consider multiple boundary conditions when simulating Earth-like exoplanetary climates.

insolation↗

Preseismic Fault Creep and Elastic Wave Amplitude Precursors Scale With Lab Earthquake Magnitude for the Continuum of Tectonic Failure Modes

Tectonic faults fail in a continuum of modes from slow earthquakes to elastodynamic rupture. Precursory variations in elastic wavespeed and amplitude, interpreted as indicators of imminent failure, have been observed in limited natural settings and lab experiments where they are thought to arise from contact rejuvenation and microcracking within and around the fault zone. However, the physical mechanisms and connections to fault creep are poorly understood. Here we vary loading stiffness during frictional shear to generate a range of slip modes and measure fault zone properties using transmitted elastic waves. We find that elastic wave amplitudes show clear changes before fault failure. The temporal onset of amplitude reduction scales with lab earthquake magnitude and the magnitude of this reduction varies with fault slip. Our data provide clear evidence of precursors to lab earthquakes and suggest that continuous seismic monitoring could be useful for assessing fault state and seismic hazard potential.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Block Tectonics across Western Tibet and Multi-Millennial Recurrence of Great Earthquakes on the Karakax Fault

We report that fault slip rates are critical to quantify continental deformation. Those along the Karakax fault (northwestern Altyn Tagh Fault: ATF) have been debated, even though it is one of Tibet's most outstanding active faults. At Taersa, using LiDAR measurements of terrace and fan riser offsets (~6 to ~500 m) and 10 Be/ 26 Al dating of alluvial surfaces (<210 ka), we obtain a late Quaternary slip rate of ~2.5 ± 0.5 mm/yr. This doubles the ~2.6 ± 0.5 mm/yr rate time span found to the east and west. We interpret the ~150 km-long, free-faced rupture along the fault to be that of the M ~ 7.6 event felt in Hotan in 1882. Characteristic slip (~6 m) during four large earthquakes since ~10 ka implies a ~2500 ± 500 years return time. A ~3 mm/yr rate is consistent with the ~80 km offset of the Karakax river since uplift of the West Kunlun range and sediment deposition in the Tarim foreland accelerated, ~24 Ma ago. The faster slip rate (~10.5 mm/yr) on the central ATF matches the sum of those along the reactivated West Tibetan terrane boundaries (Karakax and Longmu-Gozha Co faults) at the Uzatagh triple junction (~36°N, 83°E). The abrupt termination and altitude drop of the Karakorum range where the Longmu Co and Karakorum faults meet (Angmong junction), also reflect triple junction kinematics. Such localized changes account for the rise of the Karakorum and West Kunlun ranges and support lithospheric block tectonics rather than diffusely distributed deformation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Small-Magnitude Seismic Swarms in Central Utah (US): Interactions of Regional Tectonics, Local Structures and Hydrothermal Systems

Swarms in Central Utah are situated in the complex transition between the Basin and Range (BR) province and the Colorado Plateau. Transecting transverse structures, volcanic deposits, and hydrothermal systems complicate the extensional BR horst and graben structures and provide a multitude of plausible triggering mechanisms. Revisiting the catalog of the University of Utah Seismograph Stations (1981–2022), we analyze spatio-temporal patterns and characteristic features of seismic sequences. Swarms with alternating seismicity rates, bursts, and longer swarms with persistent moment release exhibit a remarkable diversity in temporal evolution. Swarm durations do not scale with cumulative seismic moment: swarms lasting less than 1 day can have similar cumulative seismic moments as month-long swarms. Here, we observe stationary swarms re-occurring for years (e.g., Mineral Mountains), as well as singular swarms in low-seismicity areas (e.g., activating a local structure). The swarms show a pronounced heterogeneity in triggering and driving mechanisms, observed in the detailed analysis of exemplary sequences (detections, relocations, moment tensors, waveform-based clustering, and repeater analysis). The 2022 Sevier Valley sequence activated a BR-related normal fault, the first resolved fault plane in the valley since 1983. The 2011 Circleville sequence is interpreted as a swarm triggered by mainshock-aftershock activity characterized by increasing magnitudes, changing rupture mechanisms, and a concentration of highly similar events in the second part of the sequence. By jointly discussing exemplary sequences and catalog statistics, we draw a comprehensive picture of swarm activity and its relation to geothermal and tectonic activity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Pleistocene Colorado River terraces in the canyonlands region (Utah, USA) record unsteady, transient incision and growth of the Cataract Canyon knickzone by salt tectonics

Colorado River terraces in the canyonlands region of southeastern Utah can be dated and analyzed to address the controls of incision and nature of the Colorado Plateau's largest channel-steepness anomaly, Cataract Canyon. Field correlations supported by luminescence and cosmogenic-nuclide ages on strath terraces along Meander Canyon, upstream of Cataract Canyon, reveal a complex record of unsteady incision over the past ~340 k.y. at an average rate of ~0.4 mm/yr. Both an upstream progression of rapid incision and a unique sigmoidal long-profile pattern of terraces indicate incision in response to episodic baselevel fall. Also, terraces converge downstream with the anomalously low-gradient modern channel above Cataract Canyon. Here we interpret these results as indicating that growth of the Cataract Canyon knickzone is due to an erosion-salt tectonics feedback since at least the Mid Pleistocene, which has imparted unsteady, and currently elevated, local baselevel. More broadly, the canyonlands region is marked by rapid and unsteady incision that is complicated by local geologic controls even while being absent of any regional or mantle-driven uplift.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Utilizing ERTS-A imagery for tectonic analysis through study of the Bighorn Mountains Region

The author has identified the following significant results. Preliminary vegetation analysis has been undertaken on MSS scene 1085-17294, Oct. 16, 1973 in the Bighorn region. Forest Service maps showing detailed distribution of dominant forest types have been compared with MSS bands 5 and 7 positive transparencies, enlarged positive prints, and color imagery produced on an Addcol viewer. Patterns on the ERTS imagery match those on the Forest Service maps quite well. A tectonic map ovearlay of MSS band 7 of the Bighorn region reveals a strong concentration of linears in the uplift as compared to basins. Folds in the Bighorn Basin are visible where not covered by post-Paleocene deposits. In regions where far less is known of the geology than in this area, it might be possible to predict the subsurface occurrence of folds and lineaments on the basis of imagery analysis and more confidently explore covered areas for concealed oil structures and mineral deposits.

Hoppin, R. A.↗