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NASA NTRS2015

Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project Verification, Validation, and Credibility (VVandC)

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project supports end user requests by employing the Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) and IMM tools as well as subject matter expertise within the Project. The iMED houses data used by the IMM. The IMM is designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A stochastic approach is taken because deterministic results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation, as well as lay the foundation for external review and application. METHODS: In 2008, the Project team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) [1] was published, the Project team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. Construction of these tools included meeting documentation and evidence requirements sufficient to meet external review success criteria. RESULTS: IMM Project VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include updates to the 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM Project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the HRP NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document working group and the NASA-HDBK-7009 [2]. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including operations, science and technology planning, and exploration planning. IMM v4.0 is slated for operational release in the FY015 and current VVC assessments illustrate the expected VVC status prior to the completion of customer lead external review efforts. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM Project of incorporating Project-specific recommended practices and guidelines for implementing the 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM Project represented a critical communication tool in providing clear and concise suitability assessments to IMM customers. These processes have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.

Walton, M.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Generic Urban Air Mobility Simulation

This research presents a simulation framework for autonomous research for a UAM vehicle using the NASA Revolutionary Vertical Lift Technology Lift+Cruise concept vehicle. Our research results were produced using the open-source, six degree of freedom, rigid-body, nonlinear generic urban air mobility (GUAM) simulation. The intent of this paper is to demonstrate the GUAM simulation and a series of Challenge Problems that our researchers have posed to the broader autonomous vehicle research community. Our team has developed the GUAM simulation for the express purpose of providing a high-fidelity transition vehicle dynamics model to foster collaboration and algorithm performance comparison across research teams. In this paper, we demonstrate some of the autonomous flight research challenges and some of our current approaches to tackling basic autonomous flight tasks (e.g., trajectory following, stationary and moving obstacle avoidance). Additionally, we propose some flight metrics to assess autonomous algorithm performance while accomplishing these basic autonomous tasks.

autonomous flight↗

NASA NTRS2000

Remote Sensing and the Kyoto Protocol: A Workshop Summary

The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change contains quantified, legally binding commitments to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels and allows carbon emissions to be balanced by carbon sinks represented by vegetation. The issue of using vegetation cover as an emission offset raises a debate about the adequacy of current remote sensing systems and data archives to both assess carbon stocks/sinks at 1990 levels, and monitor the current and future global status of those stocks. These concerns and the potential ratification of the Protocol among participating countries is stimulating policy debates and underscoring a need for the exchange of information between the international legal community and the remote sensing community. On October 20-22 1999, two working groups of the International Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing (ISPRS) joined with the University of Michigan (Michigan, USA) to convene discussions on how remote sensing technology could contribute to the information requirements raised by implementation of, and compliance with, the Kyoto Protocol. The meeting originated as a joint effort between the Global Monitoring Working Group and the Radar Applications Working Group in Commission VII of the ISPRS, co-sponsored by the University of Michigan. Tile meeting was attended by representatives from national government agencies and international organizations and academic institutions. Some of the key themes addressed were: (1) legal aspects of transnational remote sensing in the context of the Kyoto Protocol; (2) a review of the current and future and remote sensing technologies that could be applied to the Kyoto Protocol; (3) identification of areas where additional research is needed in order to advance and align remote sensing technology with the requirements and expectations of the Protocol; and 94) the bureaucratic and research management approaches needed to align the remote sensing community with both the science and policy communities.

Rosenqvist, Ake↗

NASA NTRS2016

Assessment of Preconditioner for a USM3D Hierarchical Adaptive Nonlinear Method (HANIM) (Invited)

Enhancements to the previously reported mixed-element USM3D Hierarchical Adaptive Nonlinear Iteration Method (HANIM) framework have been made to further improve robustness, efficiency, and accuracy of computational fluid dynamic simulations. The key enhancements include a multi-color line-implicit preconditioner, a discretely consistent symmetry boundary condition, and a line-mapping method for the turbulence source term discretization. The USM3D iterative convergence for the turbulent flows is assessed on four configurations. The configurations include a two-dimensional (2D) bump-in-channel, the 2D NACA 0012 airfoil, a three-dimensional (3D) bump-in-channel, and a 3D hemisphere cylinder. The Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) solutions have been obtained using a Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model and families of uniformly refined nested grids. Two types of HANIM solutions using line- and point-implicit preconditioners have been computed. Additional solutions using the point-implicit preconditioner alone (PA) method that broadly represents the baseline solver technology have also been computed. The line-implicit HANIM shows superior iterative convergence in most cases with progressively increasing benefits on finer grids.

Pandya, Mohagna J.↗

NASA NTRS2003

System and Software Reliability (C103)

Within the last decade better reliability models (hardware. software, system) than those currently used have been theorized and developed but not implemented in practice. Previous research on software reliability has shown that while some existing software reliability models are practical, they are no accurate enough. New paradigms of development (e.g. OO) have appeared and associated reliability models have been proposed posed but not investigated. Hardware models have been extensively investigated but not integrated into a system framework. System reliability modeling is the weakest of the three. NASA engineers need better methods and tools to demonstrate that the products meet NASA requirements for reliability measurement. For the new models for the software component of the last decade, there is a great need to bring them into a form that they can be used on software intensive systems. The Statistical Modeling and Estimation of Reliability Functions for Systems (SMERFS'3) tool is an existing vehicle that may be used to incorporate these new modeling advances. Adapting some existing software reliability modeling changes to accommodate major changes in software development technology may also show substantial improvement in prediction accuracy. With some additional research, the next step is to identify and investigate system reliability. System reliability models could then be incorporated in a tool such as SMERFS'3. This tool with better models would greatly add value in assess in GSFC projects.

Wallace, Dolores↗

NASA NTRS2005

The Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum

In August 2004, representatives from NOAA, NASA, the USGS, and other government agencies convened in San Juan, Puerto Rim for a workshop to discuss a proposed research project called the Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum (HFLC). The essence of the HFLC is to develop and integrate tools across disciplines to enable the issuance of regional guidance products for floods and landslides associated with major tropical rain systems, with sufficient lead time that local emergency managers can protect vulnerable populations and infrastructure. All three lead agencies are independently developing precipitation-flood-debris flow forecasting technologies, and all have a history of work on natural hazards both domestically and overseas. NOM has the capability to provide tracking and prediction of storm rainfall, trajectory and landfall and is developing flood probability and magnTtude capabilities. The USGS has the capability to evaluate the ambient stability of natural and man-made landforms, to assess landslide susceptibilities for those landforms, and to establish probabilities for initiation of landslides and debris flows. Additionally, the USGS has well-developed operational capacity for real-time monitoring and reporting of streamflow across distributed networks of automated gaging stations (http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/). NASA has the capability to provide sophisticated algorithms for satellite remote sensing of precipitation, land use, and in the future, soil moisture. The Workshop sought to initiate discussion among three agencies regarding their specific and highly complimentary capabilities. The fundamental goal of the Workshop was to establish a framework that will leverage the strengths of each agency. Once a prototype system is developed for example, in relatively data-rich Puerto Rim, it could be adapted for use in data-poor, low-infrastructure regions such as the Dominican Republic or Haiti. This paper provides an overview of the Workshop s goals, presentations and recommendations with respect to the development of the HFLC.

Negri, Andrew J.↗

NASA NTRS1992

The experience factory: Can it make you a 5? or what is its relationship to other quality and improvement concepts?

The concepts of quality improvements have permeated many businesses. It is clear that the nineties will be the quality era for software and there is a growing need to develop or adapt quality improvement approaches to the software business. Thus we must understand software as an artifact and software as a business. Since the business we are dealing with is software, we must understand the nature of software and software development. The software discipline is evolutionary and experimental; it is a laboratory science. Software is development not production. The technologies of the discipline are human based. There is a lack of models that allow us to reason about the process and the product. All software is not the same; process is a variable, goals are variable, etc. Packaged, reusable, experiences require additional resources in the form of organization, processes, people, etc. There have been a variety of organizational frameworks proposed to improve quality for various businesses. The ones discussed in this presentation include: Plan-Do-Check-Act, a quality improvement process based upon a feedback cycle for optimizing a single process model/production line; the Experience Factory/Quality Improvement Paradigm, continuous improvements through the experimentation, packaging, and reuse of experiences based upon a business's needs; Total Quality Management, a management approach to long term success through customer satisfaction based on the participation of all members of an organization; the SEI capability maturity model, a staged process improvement based upon assessment with regard to a set of key process areas until you reach a level 5 which represents a continuous process improvement; and Lean (software) Development, a principle supporting the concentration of the production on 'value added' activities and the elimination of reduction of 'not value added' activities.

Basili, Victor R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT) Technology for NASA Earth Science

For NASA's Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program, an Earth System Digital Twin (ESDT) is defined as an interactive and integrated multidomain, multiscale, digital replica of the state and temporal evolution of Earth systems. It dynamically integrates: relevant Earth system models and simulations; other relevant models (e.g., related to the world's infrastructure); continuous and timely (including near real time and direct readout) observations (e.g., space, air, ground, over/underwater, Internet of Things (IoT), socioeconomic); long-time records; as well as analytics and artificial intelligence tools. Effective ESDTs enable users to run hypothetical scenarios to improve the understanding, prediction of and mitigation/response to Earth system processes, natural phenomena and human activities as well as their many interactions. An ESDT is a type of integrated information system that, for example, enables continuous assessment of impact from naturally occurring and/or human activities on physical and natural environments. AIST ESDT strategic goals are to: 1. Develop information system frameworks to provide continuous and accurate representations of systems as they change over time; 2. Mirror various Earth Science systems and utilize the combination of Data Analytics, Artificial Intelligence, Digital Thread, and state-of-the-art models to help predict the Earth’s response to various phenomena; 3. Provide the tools to conduct "what if" investigations that can result in actionable predictions. The AIST ESDT thrust is developing capabilities toward the development of future digital twins of the Earth or of subcomponents of the Earth. This will enable the development of an overarching framework that will integrate New Observing Strategies (NOS) to enable new observation measurements, i.e., multi-source, coordinated, dynamic and responsive to needs and requests defined by Analytic Collaborative Frameworks (ACF) that enable agile science investigations fusing and analyzing very large amounts of diverse data. NOS and ACF capabilities along with open access to various science, infrastructure and human data, interconnected modeling, data assimilation, simulations, surrogate modeling, high-performance computing and advanced visualization, will define a powerful framework that could be utilized for local, regional or global and/or thematic digital twins. This presentation will describe a general overview of the AIST ESDT vision including prior work done in the areas of NOS and ACF as well as current and upcoming ESDT projects.

Jacqueline Le Moigne↗

NASA NTRS1991

Numerical propulsion system simulation

The cost of implementing new technology in aerospace propulsion systems is becoming prohibitively expensive. One of the major contributors to the high cost is the need to perform many large scale system tests. Extensive testing is used to capture the complex interactions among the multiple disciplines and the multiple components inherent in complex systems. The objective of the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS) is to provide insight into these complex interactions through computational simulations. This will allow for comprehensive evaluation of new concepts early in the design phase before a commitment to hardware is made. It will also allow for rapid assessment of field-related problems, particularly in cases where operational problems were encountered during conditions that would be difficult to simulate experimentally. The tremendous progress taking place in computational engineering and the rapid increase in computing power expected through parallel processing make this concept feasible within the near future. However it is critical that the framework for such simulations be put in place now to serve as a focal point for the continued developments in computational engineering and computing hardware and software. The NPSS concept which is described below will provide that framework.

R.W. Claus↗

NASA NTRS1990

Numerical propulsion system simulation

Lytle, John K.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Preparing for Mars: The Evolvable Mars Campaign 'Proving Ground' Approach

As the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) prepares to extend human presence beyond Low Earth Orbit, we are in the early stages of planning missions within the framework of an Evolvable Mars Campaign. Initial missions would be conducted in near-Earth cis-lunar space and would eventually culminate in extended duration crewed missions on the surface of Mars. To enable such exploration missions, critical technologies and capabilities must be identified, developed, and tested. NASA has followed a principled approach to identify critical capabilities and a "Proving Ground" approach is emerging to address testing needs. The Proving Ground is a period subsequent to current International Space Station activities wherein exploration-enabling capabilities and technologies are developed and the foundation is laid for sustained human presence in space. The Proving Ground domain essentially includes missions beyond Low Earth Orbit that will provide increasing mission capability while reducing technical risks. Proving Ground missions also provide valuable experience with deep space operations and support the transition from "Earth-dependence" to "Earth-independence" required for sustainable space exploration. A Technology Development Assessment Team identified a suite of critical technologies needed to support the cadence of exploration missions. Discussions among mission planners, vehicle developers, subject-matter-experts, and technologists were used to identify a minimum but sufficient set of required technologies and capabilities. Within System Maturation Teams, known challenges were identified and expressed as specific performance gaps in critical capabilities, which were then refined and activities required to close these critical gaps were identified. Analysis was performed to identify test and demonstration opportunities for critical technical capabilities across the Proving Ground spectrum of missions. This suite of critical capabilities is expected to provide the foundation required to enable a variety of possible destinations and missions consistent with the Evolvable Mars Campaign.. The International Space Station will be used to the greatest extent possible for exploration capability and technology development. Beyond this, NASA is evaluating a number of options for Proving Ground missions. An "Asteroid Redirect Mission" will demonstrate needed capabilities (e.g., Solar Electric Propulsion) and transportation systems for the crew (i.e., Space Launch System and Orion) and for cargo (i.e., Asteroid Redirect Vehicle). The Mars 2020 mission and follow-on robotic precursor missions will gather Mars surface environment information and will mature technologies. NASA is considering emplacing a small pressurized module in cis-lunar space to support crewed operations of increasing duration and to serve as a platform for critical exploration capabilities testing (e.g., radiation mitigation; extended duration deep space habitation). In addition, "opportunistic mission operations" could demonstrate capabilities not on the Mars critical path that may, nonetheless, enhance exploration operations (e.g., teleoperations, crew assisted Mars sample return). The Proving Ground may also include "pathfinder" missions to test and demonstrate specific capabilities at Mars (e.g., entry, descent, and landing). This paper describes the (1) process used to conduct an architecture-driven technology development assessment, (2) exploration mission critical and supporting capabilities, and (3) approach for addressing test and demonstration opportunities encompassing the spectrum of flight elements and destinations consistent with the Evolvable Mars Campaign.

Bobskill, Marianne R.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Assessment of the NASA Astrobiology Institute

Astrobiology is a scientific discipline devoted to the study of life in the universe--its origins, evolution, distribution, and future. It brings together the physical and biological sciences to address some of the most fundamental questions of the natural world: How do living systems emerge? How do habitable worlds form and how do they evolve? Does life exist on worlds other than Earth? As an endeavor of tremendous breadth and depth, astrobiology requires interdisciplinary investigation in order to be fully appreciated and examined. As part of a concerted effort to undertake such a challenge, the NASA Astrobiology Institute (NAI) was established in 1998 as an innovative way to develop the field of astrobiology and provide a scientific framework for flight missions. Now that the NAI has been in existence for almost a decade, the time is ripe to assess its achievements. At the request of NASA's Associate Administrator for the Science Mission Directorate (SMD), the Committee on the Review of the NASA Astrobiology Institute undertook the assignment to determine the progress made by the NAI in developing the field of astrobiology. It must be emphasized that the purpose of this study was not to undertake a review of the scientific accomplishments of NASA's Astrobiology program, in general, or of the NAI, in particular. Rather, the objective of the study is to evaluate the success of the NAI in achieving its stated goals of: 1. Conducting, supporting, and catalyzing collaborative interdisciplinary research; 2. Training the next generation of astrobiology researchers; 3. Providing scientific and technical leadership on astrobiology investigations for current and future space missions; 4. Exploring new approaches, using modern information technology, to conduct interdisciplinary and collaborative research among widely distributed investigators; and 5. Supporting outreach by providing scientific content for use in K-12 education programs, teaching undergraduate classes, and communicating directly with the public. The committee s assessment of the NAI's progress in these five areas is presented in Chapters 2 to 6, respectively.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2019

Meteoroid Impact Detection for Exploration of Asteroids (MIDEA)

Asteroids contain a wealth of resources including water and precious metals that can be extracted. These resources could be applied to in-space manufacture of products that depend less on material launched from Earth's surface. The Meteoroid Impact Detection for Exploration of Asteroids (MIDEA) concept addresses the challenge of characterizing an asteroid surface using a small satellite with a constellation of free-flying plasma sensors to assess the asteroid’s viability for in situ resource utilization (ISRU). The plasma sensors detect ions ejected from the surface of an asteroid by meteoroid impacts, enabling the surface composition to be inferred. The objective of this NIAC Phase I study was to demonstrate feasibility of the MIDEA architecture in the context of proximity operations around an asteroid target and to develop the design of an orbital geometry and attitude control strategy for the ultralight plasma sensors. This was undertaken through a simulation framework to identify and characterize a favorable orbit for the MIDEA sensor constellation, and developing a sensor geometry that is consistent with maintaining the pointing requirements necessary to operate with sufficient power generation. Our study showed that a polar orbit aligned along the asteroid terminator provided sufficient stability for the sensors in the low gravitational environment under the influence of substantial solar radiation pressure. Reflector vanes using controlled reflectivity devices implemented with liquid crystal technology are capable of maintaining the sensor attitude so that it consistently points its solar panels in the sun direction and the sensor electrode at the asteroid surface. Finally, the reduction in meteoroid impact detection due to visibility constraints from the proposed orbit does not substantially extend the expected mission duration. These results indicate that the MIDEA concept can be achievable using a 10–20 kg spacecraft, which would be able to characterize the surface composition of an asteroid within 30–50 days of proximity operations. This architecture, implemented in parallel to multiple asteroid targets, would enable widespread exploration of near-Earth asteroids at low cost.

Asteroids↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment IV

Atmospheric composition continues to be a key Earth science focus for international space agencies and research organizations. The target constituent varies depending upon the topic area of interest such as monitoring the ozone layer and the efficacy of the Montreal Protocol, assessing the influence of volcanic eruptions and large wildfires on the atmosphere, improving our knowledge of transport processes, or evaluating the impacts of greenhouse gases on climate. Additionally, there is a growing need for measurement continuity of many trace gases both from an inability to properly assess long-term trends without it as well as the reliance of reanalyses and chemistry climate models on observational input. To this end, proper continuity requires continuous and overlapping multi-instrument data records of which spaceborne measurements are a critical component. However, most current satellite systems are well beyond their expected lifetimes, and so we look toward the future to develop the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) IV as a future mission concept. Enabled by the NASA Earth Science Technology Office’s (ESTO) Instrument Incubator Program, the SAGE IV Pathfinder project has developed and validated a prototype demonstration that paves the way for a future SAGE IV spaceflight mission. Utilizing solar occultation imaging, SAGE IV will be capable of measuring key species in the stratosphere and upper troposphere with the same quality as previous SAGE instruments but with greatly improved pointing knowledge and extensibility to new science targets. Furthermore, current technological advancements allow SAGE IV to fit within a CubeSat framework and make use of commercial hardware, significantly reducing the size and cost when compared with traditional missions and enabling sustainability of future measurements.

Robert Damadeo↗

NASA NTRS2004

Techno-Political Space Cooperation: A Longitudinal Analysis of NASA's Bilateral and Multilateral Agreements

NASA's international programs are both numerous and successful, with over two thousand international agreements forming a foundation of U.S. government cooperation that involved over half the United Nation's membership. Previous research, by the author, into these agreements has identified five variables underlying NASA's international cooperation efforts and these variables form a framework for explaining international cooperation behavior on a macro-level. This paper builds upon that research to effectively explain lower-level patterns of cooperation in NASA's experience. Two approaches for analyzing the space agency's history are used: aggregation of all agreements and a cluster (disaggregated) analysis of four key segments. While researchers of NASA's international cooperation often considered individual cases first, and then generalize to macro-level explanations. This study, in contrast, begins by considering all agreements together in order to explain as much as possible at the macro level before proceeding to lower tier explanations. These lower tier assessments are important to understanding regional and political influences on bilateral and multilateral cooperation. In order to accomplish this lower-tier analysis, the 2000 agreements are disaggregated into logical groupings enabling an analysis of important questions and clearer focus on key patterns concerning developing states, such as the role of international institutions or privatization on international cooperation in space technology.

Hudiburg, John J.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Enhancing Human Health Using Space Imagery: Summary of Research

The International Space University (ISU) 2002 Summer Session was conducted in Pomona, California, June 29-August 30, 2002. Ninety-nine professionals and students from thirty-one countries attended the Summer Session. More than half of these students participated in the Student Research Design Project entitled, "HI-STAR: Health Improvements through Space Technologies and Resources." ISU's interdisciplinary Student Research Design Projects are intended to have great educational value for the participants and, at the same time, to result in a product that will be useful to the field. The HI-STAR project was a success on both counts. The mission of the ISU students' effort on HI-STAR was to develop and promote a global strategy to help combat malaria using space technology. Like the tiny yet powerful mosquito, HI-STAR is a small program that aspires to make a difference. Timely detection of malaria danger zones is essential to help health authorities and policy makers make decisions about how to manage limited resources for combating malaria. In 2001, the technical support network for prevention and control of malaria epidemics published a study called "Malaria Early Warning Systems: Concepts, Indicators and Partners." This study, funded by Roll Back Malaria, a World Health Organization initiative, offered a framework for a monitoring and early warning system. HI-STAR seeks to build on this proposal and enhance the space elements of the suggested framework. Malaria disease dynamics and distributions are related to environmental variables. From space, environmental conditions that support the growth of mosquito populations can be monitored, Malaria-specific information can be gathered from satellite-borne remote sensing instruments and ground-based sensors. This information can be integrated via geographic information systems (GIS) into a Malaria Information System (MIS) that can provide assessment analyses and risk maps as output. HI-STAR defines and suggests the development of an active MIS as a low-cost tool to help organizations plan their efforts to fight malaria.

Finarelli, Margaret G.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Ellicott City Disasters II: Enhancing a Statistical Flood Risk Model to Continue Improving Early Warning Systems and Public Safety in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flooding events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the use of technological advancements and applied science are increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP Ellicott City Disasters II project investigated the use of machine learning for applications in flood risk detection to support the improvement of early warning systems. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM) in building a more robust flood monitoring system, the project improved the original statistical flood risk model, FLuME (Flood Learning Model Environment), programmed by the first DEVELOP term. The enhancements incorporated an additional six years of precipitation and soil moisture data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), modeled using Aqua Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager. These Earth observations were supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM and the US Geological Survey. The resultant flood risk model FLASH (Flood Learning Environment and Severity Assessment Hub) was trained to evaluate input variables and predict stage height in Ellicott City in real time. The addition of an advanced deep learning framework known as long short-term memory improved the model’s ability to capture relationships between variables. To assess the effectiveness of the new model, FLASH produced a model efficiency metric of 0.99, a significant improvement over the 0.85 value produced by the previous model. The project assisted the OEM in pursuing the integration of open data and NASA Earth observations into a threat matrix capable of informing near real-time decision making.

Disasters↗

NASA NTRS2020

Ellicott City Disasters II: Enhancing a Statistical Flood Risk Model to Continue Improving Early Warning Systems and Public Safety in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flooding events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the use of technological advancements and applied science are increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP Ellicott City Disasters II project investigated the use of machine learning for applications in flood risk detection to support the improvement of early warning systems. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM) in building a more robust flood monitoring system, the project improved the original statistical flood risk model, FLuME (Flood Learning Model Environment), programmed by the first DEVELOP term The enhancements incorporated an additional six years of precipitation and soil moisture data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), modeled using Aqua Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission TRMM Microwave Imager. These Earth observations were supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM and the US Geological Survey. The resultant flood risk model FLASH (Flood Learning Environment and Severity Assessment Hub) was trained to evaluate input variables and predict stage height in Ellicott City in real time. The addition of an advanced deep learning framework known as long short-term memory improved the model’s ability to capture relationships between variables. To assess the effectiveness of the new model, FLASH produced a model efficiency metric of 0.99, a significant improvement over the 0.85 value produced by the previous model. The project assisted the OEM in pursuing the integration of open data and NASA Earth observations into a threat matrix capable of informing near real-time decision making.

Disasters↗