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At least 217 records · Page 12

How Well do Earth System Models Capture Apparent Relationships Between Phytoplankton Biomass and Environmental Variables?

Abstract As phytoplankton form the base of the marine food web, understanding the controls on their abundance is fundamental to understanding marine ecology and its sensitivity to global climate change. While many Earth System Models (ESMs) predict phytoplankton biomass, it is unclear whether they properly capture the mechanistic relationships that control this quantity in the real ocean. We used Random Forest analysis to analyze the output of 13 ESMs as well as two observational data sets. The target variable was phytoplankton carbon and the predictors included environmental parameters known to influence phytoplankton, including nutrients, light, mixed layer depth, salinity, temperature, and upwelling. We examined the following: (a) What fractions of variability in ESMs and observations can be linked to the large‐scale environmental variables simulated by ESMs? (b) What are the dominant predictors and relationships affecting phytoplankton biomass? (c) How well do ESMs simulate phytoplankton carbon and do they simulate the relationships we see in observations? About 88%–96% of the variability in observational data sets and greater than 98% in the ESMs was accounted for by environmental variables known to influence phytoplankton biomass. The dominant predictors in the observational data sets were shortwave radiation and dissolved iron, with temperature and ammonium also relatively important. All the ESMs show that shortwave radiation is the most important variable and most of them predict the right sign of sensitivity to most variables. However, the models predict that biomass reaches maximum levels at unrealistically low levels of iron and unrealistically high levels of light.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Estimating proportions of objects from multispectral scanner data

Progress is reported in developing and testing methods of estimating, from multispectral scanner data, proportions of target classes in a scene when there are a significiant number of boundary pixels. Procedures were developed to exploit: (1) prior information concerning the number of object classes normally occurring in a pixel, and (2) spectral information extracted from signals of adjoining pixels. Two algorithms, LIMMIX and nine-point mixtures, are described along with supporting processing techniques. An important by-product of the procedures, in contrast to the previous method, is that they are often appropriate when the number of spectral bands is small. Preliminary tests on LANDSAT data sets, where target classes were (1) lakes and ponds, and (2) agricultural crops were encouraging.

Horwitz, H. M.↗

Post-Shot Report for OMEGA Double Cylinders (CylDRT 22B)

The direct-drive double cylinder experimental platform is a high-energy-density (HED) science platform designed to image an imploding cylindrical target. The target consists of a directly-driven outer cylinder and a shock-and-collision driven inner cylinder. The purpose of this platform is to study hydrodynamic instability growth on the inner cylinder, the outer surface of which is classically Rayleigh-Taylor unstable during the acceleration phase. We present results from recent experiments at the OMEGA laser facility. These experiments were designed as a proof-of-principle for the platform, using the same cylinder exterior dimensions and direct-drive beam configuration as previous single cylinder experiments. In these experiments, three sets of targets were fielded: no machined perturbations (smooth), a sinusoidal mode-10 perturbation on the outer surface of the inner cylinder, and a mode-20 perturbation on the outer surface of the inner cylinder. The primary diagnostic was a gated x-ray framing camera which imaged the backlit inner cylinder on-axis for sixteen frames over a time window of 1 ns for each shot. A second side-lit radiograph captured one image per shot, diagnosing axial uniformity. In this report we include an overview of the results from both the backlighter and the sidelighter diagnostics. We discuss at length the experimental analysis process. Finally, we present the results of the smooth target implosion trajectory and compare them to post-shot simulations. We see favorable agreement between simulation and experiment.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Quantum Solvers for Plane-Wave Hamiltonians: Abridging Virtual Spaces Through the Optimization of Pairwise Correlations

For many-body methods such as MCSCF and CASSCF, in which the number of one-electron orbitals is optimized and independent of the basis set used, there are no problems with using plane-wave basis sets. However, for methods currently used in quantum computing such as select configuration interaction (CI) and coupled cluster (CC) methods, it is necessary to have a virtual space that is able to capture a significant amount of electron-electron correlation in the system. The virtual orbitals in a pseudopotential plane-wave Hartree–Fock calculation, because of Coulomb repulsion, are often scattering states that interact very weakly with the filled orbitals. As a result, very little correlation energy is captured from them. The use of virtual spaces derived from the one-electron operators has also been tried, and while some correlations are captured, the amount is quite low. To overcome these limitations, we have been developing new classes of algorithms to define virtual spaces by optimizing orbitals from small pairwise CI Hamiltonians, which we term as correlation optimized virtual orbitals with the abbreviation COVOs. With these procedures, we have been able to derive virtual spaces, containing only a few orbitals, which are able to capture a significant amount of correlation. The focus in this manuscript is on using these derived basis sets to target full CI (FCI) quality results for H2 on near-term quantum computers. However, the initial results for this approach were promising. We were able to obtain good agreement with FCI/cc-pVTZ results for this system with just 4 virtual orbitals, using both FCI and quantum simulations. The quality of the results using COVOs suggests that it may be possible to use them in other many-body approaches, including coupled cluster and Møller–Plesset perturbation theories, and open up the door to many-body calculations for pseudopotential plane-wave basis set methods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Combustion for future supersonic transport propulsion

Even with it's marginal performance, Concorde has demonstrated that supersonic civil aircraft are a practical proposition. A second generation machine will need sufficiently good performance for a robust operating system that can provide reliable, frequent service with competitive economics. Additionally, the propulsion system must be acceptable environmentally. That is it must create acceptable noise levels around airports and have acceptable emissions throughout its mission including cruise. Whatever devices may be used to improve the acceptability at subsonic flight conditions, the high operating temperatures at cruise can create difficult targets for the operation of the combustion system both mechanically and in the combustion process itself. While the driving force is ever better fuel consumption and weight to achieve economic viability, a future supersonic transport engine will have cycle temperatures limited only by the mechanical integrity of the major components. The environment of the major components in modern gas turbine engines is dominated by the air delivered by the compressor system. Consequently the maximum compression temperature is governed by materials available for the turbine and compressor discs. The continued improvement of the disc material leads to combustion inlet temperatures beyond today's experience and sets difficult targets for combustion system emissions. This is worsened by the requirement being at cruise and therefore maintained for the major part of the mission. Problems such as creep and oxidation of metallic parts are also considered.

B. W. Lowrie↗

Model Deformation Measurements of Sonic Boom Models in the NASA Ames 9- by 7-Ft Supersonic Wind Tunnel

The deformations of two sonic-boom models were measured by stereo photogrammetry during tests in the 9- by 7-Ft Supersonic Wind Tunnel at NASA Ames Research Center. The models were geometrically similar but one was 2.75 times as large as the other. Deformation measurements were made by simultaneously imaging the upper surfaces of the models from two directions by calibrated cameras that were mounted behind windows of the test section. Bending and twist were measured at discrete points using conventional circular targets that had been marked along the leading and trailing edges of the wings and tails. In addition, continuous distributions of bending and twist were measured from ink speckles that had been applied to the upper surfaces of the model. Measurements were made at wind-on (M = 1.6) and wind-off conditions over a range of angles of attack between 2.5 deg. and 5.0 deg. At each condition, model deformation was determined by comparing the wind-off and wind-on coordinates of each measurement point after transforming the coordinates to reference coordinates tied to the model. The necessary transformations were determined by measuring the positions of a set of targets on the rigid center-body of the models whose model-axes coordinates were known. Smoothly varying bending and twist measurements were obtained at all conditions. Bending displacements increased in proportion to the square of the distance to the centerline. Maximum deflection of the wingtip of the larger model was about 5 mm (2% of the semispan) and that of the smaller model was 0.9 mm (1% of the semispan). The change in wing twist due to bending increased in direct proportion to distance from the centerline and reached a (absolute) maximum of about -1 at the highest angle of attack for both models. The measurements easily resolved bending displacements as small as 0.05 mm and bending-induced changes in twist as small as 0.05 deg.

model deformation↗

Planning for Seattle at the Convergence of Resilience and Energy

Grid reliability metrics obscure important temporal, spatial, and categorical considerations for increasing energy resilience. Systemwide or feeder-level outage metrics do not identify which kinds of services are affected by outages, where, and for how long. These outage metrics indicate the impacts of outages but cannot measure the consequences to customers that could result from those outages. The consequences of power outages for surrounding community members are caused by disruptions to electricity-dependent critical services, rather than to electricity itself. Power outages can decrease a community's access to healthcare, fuel, safe indoor temperatures, and provisions like food and water. This project developed critical service access, a new consequence-focused resilience metric that quantifies the relative access to critical services provided to households by distribution infrastructure during normal conditions and major disruptions. We use a spatially granular grid analysis that facilitates targeted resilience interventions; dividing feeders into isolatable sections and combining those sections with the critical service access metric allows us to identify where energy improvements like solar-plus-storage microgrids could create the most benefits for community members by protecting access to food, fuel, health, shelter, and public safety services. We identify locations in a South Seattle study area that could be high priorities for resilience investment and summarize their potential neighborhood-scale resilience benefits. This analysis was complemented by direct feedback from study area residents collect through a survey and focus groups. Results can help utilities understand how and where long power outages can create real consequences for customers, set strategic targets based on that understanding, and measure the potential benefits of energy resilience upgrades for more informed decisions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Assessment of ROI for Workforce Development Efforts National & Homeland Security

The IDEAL Professional Engagement project at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) aims to enhance the laboratory's workforce diversity and inclusivity efforts, focusing on the U.S. National and Homeland Security mission areas. This project involves researching and evaluating opportunities for INL to engage in various professional events, particularly cyber conferences, to support recruitment and professional development. The project involved several key tasks: compiling comprehensive information on national laboratories and their mission statements, developing a deep understanding of INL’s role and efforts in national and homeland security, and identifying and engaging key stakeholders. Interviews were conducted with a set of targeted questions, and the findings were analyzed to identify common themes, insights, and actionable recommendations. Additionally, relevant upcoming cyber conferences were identified, various sponsorship levels and their associated benefits were evaluated, and the recruitment potential of these conferences was assessed. A detailed cost analysis was performed, including registration fees and travel expenses, and a cost-benefit analysis was conducted to evaluate the financial viability and potential return on investment (ROI) of conference participation and sponsorship. Based on the research and analysis, actionable recommendations for conference participation and sponsorship were formulated, ensuring alignment with INL’s mission and diversity goals. Preliminary results include a comprehensive list of relevant cyber conferences, a detailed cost analysis, and a set of actionable recommendations for future conference participation and sponsorship. The analysis highlights the financial requirements and geographical distribution of these conferences, providing valuable insights for INL's engagement strategies. This project underscores the importance of strategic engagement in professional events to attract and develop a diverse and skilled workforce, ultimately supporting INL’s mission areas in U.S. National and Homeland Security.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Arctic Black Carbon Loading and Profile Using the Single-Particle Soot Photometer (SP2) Field Campaign Report

One of the major issues confronting aerosol climate simulations of the Arctic and Antarctic cryospheres is the lack of detailed data on the vertical and spatial distribution of aerosols with which to test these models. This is due, in part, to the inherent difficulty of conducting such measurements in extreme environments. However given the pronounced sensitivity of the polar regions to radiative balance perturbations, it is incumbent upon our community to better understand and quantify these perturbations, and their unique feedbacks, so that robust model predictions of this region can be realized. One class of under-measured radiative forcing agents in the polar region is the absorbing aerosol—black carbon and brown carbon. Black carbon (BC; also referred to as light-absorbing carbon [LAC], refractory black carbon [rBC], and soot) is second only to CO2 as a positive forcing agent. Roughly 60% of BC emissions can be attributed to anthropogenic sources (fossil fuel combustion and open-pit cooking), with the remaining fraction being due to biomass burning. Brown carbon (BrC), a major component of biomass burning, collectively refers to non-BC carbonaceous aerosols that typically possess minimal light absorption at visible wavelengths but exhibit pronounced light absorption in the near-ultraviolet (UV) spectrum. Both species can be sourced locally or be remotely transported to the Arctic region and are expected to perturb the radiative balance. The work conducted in this field campaign addresses one of the more glaring deficiencies currently limiting improved quantification of the impact of BC radiative forcing in the cryosphere: the paucity of data on the vertical and spatial distributions of BC. By expanding the Gulfstream aircraft (G-1) payload for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility-sponsored ACME-V campaign to include the Single-Particle Soot Photometer (SP2)) and leveraging the ACME-V campaign’s deployment within the Arctic Circle during the summer of 2015 (Deadhorse, Alaska [70° 12' 20" N, 148° 30' 42" W]), the truly unique opportunity presented itself to acquire profile data on BC loading at little additional cost. Since the SP2 is a particle-resolved measurement, the resulting data set provides refractory black carbon (rBC) mass loadings, size and mass distributions, and rBC-containing particle mixing state, all of which are expected to readily find value in the modeling community. As part of the ACME-V (http://www.arm.gov/campaigns/aaf2014armacmev) campaign, CO, CO2, and CH4 were also measured, providing the unique opportunity for carbon closure. We will also work closely with modelers who require such data and expect this collaboration will lead directly to a better understanding of the climate impacts of BC in the Arctic. The primary measurement objective was to acquire airborne data on the vertical and spatial distributions of refractory black carbon (rBC) loading, size and mass distribution, and particle mixing state. The primary scientific objective was to provide a targeted data set of rBC particle distributions to better understand and constrain the impact of black carbon radiative forcing in the cryosphere. The SP2-based data set during this campaign is available in the DOE-ARM archive (http://www.arm.gov/campaigns/aaf2015abclp).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

MESSENGER at Mercury: Early Orbital Operations

The MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft, launched in August 2004 under NASA's Discovery Program, was inserted into orbit about the planet Mercury in March 2011. MESSENGER's three flybys of Mercury in 2008-2009 marked the first spacecraft visits to the innermost planet since the Mariner 10 flybys in 1974-1975. The unprecedented orbital operations are yielding new insights into the nature and evolution of Mercury. The scientific questions that frame the MESSENGER mission led to the mission measurement objectives to be achieved by the seven payload instruments and the radio science experiment. Interweaving the full set of required orbital observations in a manner that maximizes the opportunity to satisfy all mission objectives and yet meet stringent spacecraft pointing and thermal constraints was a complex optimization problem that was solved with a software tool that simulates science observations and tracks progress toward meeting each objective. The final orbital observation plan, the outcome of that optimization process, meets all mission objectives. MESSENGER's Mercury Dual Imaging System is acquiring a global monochromatic image mosaic at better than 90% coverage and at least 250 m average resolution, a global color image mosaic at better than 90% coverage and at least 1 km average resolution, and global stereo imaging at better than 80% coverage and at least 250 m average resolution. Higher-resolution images are also being acquired of targeted areas. The elemental remote sensing instruments, including the Gamma-Ray and Neutron Spectrometer and the X-Ray Spectrometer, are being operated nearly continuously and will establish the average surface abundances of most major elements. The Visible and Infrared Spectrograph channel of MESSENGER's Mercury Atmospheric and Surface Composition Spectrometer is acquiring a global map of spectral reflectance from 300 to 1450 nm wavelength at a range of incidence and emission angles. Targeted areas have been selected for spectral coverage into the ultraviolet with the Ultraviolet and Visible Spectrometer (UVVS). MESSENGER's Mercury Laser Altimeter is acquiring topographic profiles when the slant range to Mercury's surface is less than 1800 km, encompassing latitudes from 20 deg. S to the north pole. Topography over the remainder of the southern hemisphere will be derived from stereo imaging, radio occultations, and limb profiles. MESSENGER's radio science experiment is determining Mercury's gravity field from Doppler signals acquired during frequent downlinks. MESSENGER's Magnetometer is measuring the vector magnetic field both within Mercury's magnetosphere and in Mercury's solar wind environment at an instrument sampling rate of up to 20 samples/s. The UVVS is determining the three-dimensional, time-dependent distribution of Mercury's exospheric neutral and ionic species via their emission lines. During each spacecraft orbit, the Energetic Particle Spectrometer measures energetic electrons and ions, and the Fast Imaging Plasma Spectrometer measures the energies and mass per charge of thermal plasma components, both within Mercury's magnetosphere and in Mercury's solar-wind environment. The primary mission observation sequence will continue for one Earth year, until March 2012. An extended mission, currently under discussion with NASA, would add a second year of orbital observations targeting a set of focused follow-on questions that build on observations to date and take advantage of the more active Sun expected during 2012-2013. MESSENGER's total primary mission cost, projected at $446 M in real-year dollars, is comparable to that of Mariner 10 after adjustment for inflation.

mercury↗

MESSENGER at Mercury: Early Orbital Operations

The MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft, launched in August 2004 under NASA's Discovery Program, was inserted into orbit about the planet Mercury in March 2011. MESSENGER's three flybys of Mercury in 2008-2009 marked the first spacecraft visits to the innermost planet since the Mariner 10 flybys in 1974-1975. The unprecedented orbital operations are yielding new insights into the nature and evolution of Mercury. The scientific questions that frame the MESSENGER mission led to the mission measurement objectives to be achieved by the seven payload instruments and the radio science experiment. Interweaving the full set of required orbital observations in a manner that maximizes the opportunity to satisfy all mission objectives and yet meet stringent spacecraft pointing and thermal constraints was a complex optimization problem that was solved with a software tool that simulates science observations and tracks progress toward meeting each objective. The final orbital observation plan, the outcome of that optimization process, meets all mission objectives. MESSENGER's Mercury Dual Imaging System is acquiring a global monochromatic image mosaic at better than 90%coverage and at least 250 m average resolution, a global color image mosaic at better than 90%coverage and at least 1 km average resolution, and global stereo imaging at better than 80%coverage and at least 250 m average resolution. Higher-resolution images are also being acquired of targeted areas. The elemental remote sensing instruments, including the Gamma-Ray and Neutron Spectrometer and the X-Ray Spectrometer, are being operated nearly continuously and will establish the average surface abundances of most major elements. The Visible and Infrared Spectrograph channel of MESSENGER's Mercury Atmospheric and Surface Composition Spectrometer is acquiring a global map of spectral reflectance from 300 to 1450 nm wavelength at a range of incidence and emission angles. Targeted areas have been selected for spectral coverage into the ultraviolet with the Ultraviolet and Visible Spectrometer (UVVS). MESSENGER's Mercury Laser Altimeter is acquiring topographic profiles when the slant range to Mercury's surface is less than 1800 km, encompassing latitudes from 201S to the north pole. Topography over the remainder of the southern hemisphere will be derived from stereo imaging, radio occultations, and limb profiles. MESSENGER's radio science experiment is determining Mercury's gravity field from Doppler signals acquired during frequent downlinks. MESSENGER's Magnetometer is measuring the vector magnetic field both within Mercury's magnetosphere and in Mercury's solar wind environment at an instrument sampling rate of up to 20 samples/s. The UVVS is determining the three-dimensional, time-dependent distribution of Mercury's exospheric neutral and ionic species via their emission lines. During each spacecraft orbit, the Energetic Particle Spectrometer measures energetic electrons and ions, and the Fast Imaging Plasma Spectrometer measures the energies and mass per charge of thermal plasma components, both within Mercury's magnetosphere and in Mercury's solar-wind environment. The primary mission observation sequence will continue for one Earth year, until March 2012. An extended mission, currently under discussion with NASA, would add a second year of orbital observations targeting a set of focused follow-on questions that build on observations to date and take advantage of the more active Sun expected during 2012-2013. MESSENGER's total primary mission cost, projected at $446 M in real-year dollars, is comparable to that of Mariner 10 after adjustment for inflation.

Planetary Science↗

Validation of Kepler's multiple planet candidates. II. Refined statistical framework and descriptions of systems of special interest

We extend the statistical analysis performed by Lissauer et al. in 2012, which demonstrates that the overwhelming majority of Kepler candidate multiple transiting systems (multis) represents true transiting planets, and we develop therefrom a procedure to validate large numbers of planet candidates in multis as bona fide exoplanets. We show that this statistical framework correctly estimates the abundance of false positives already identified around Kepler targets with multiple sets of transit-like signatures based on their abundance around targets with single sets of transit-like signatures. We estimate the number of multis that represent split systems of one or more planets orbiting each component of a binary star system. We use the high reliability rate for multis to validate more than one dozen particularly interesting multi-planet systems herein. Hundreds of additional multi-planet systems are validated in a companion paper by Rowe et al. We note that few very short period (P < 1.6 days) planets orbit within multiple transiting planet systems and discuss possible reasons for their absence. There also appears to be a shortage of planets with periods exceeding a few months in multis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Cooperative Routing for an Air–Ground Vehicle Team—Exact Algorithm, Transformation Method, and Heuristics

This paper considers a cooperative vehicle routing problem for an intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance mission in the presence of communication constraints between the vehicles. The proposed framework uses a ground vehicle and an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) that travel cooperatively and visit a set of targets while satisfying the communication constraints. The problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear program, and a branch-and-cut algorithm is developed to solve the problem to optimality. Furthermore, a transformation method and a heuristic are also developed for the problem. The effectiveness of all the algorithms is corroborated through extensive computational experiments on several randomly generated instances. Furthermore, this paper is motivated by an intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance mission involving a single unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and a ground vehicle, where the vehicles must coordinate their activity in the presence of communication constraints. The combination of a small UAV and a ground vehicle is an ideal platform for such missions, since small UAVs can fly at low altitudes and can avoid obstacles or threats that would be problematic for the ground vehicle alone. This paper addresses the coordinated routing problem involving these two vehicles and presents an algorithm to obtain an optimal solution for this problem, fast heuristics to obtain good feasible solutions, and also a transformation method to transform any instance of this cooperative vehicle routing problem to an instance of the one-in-a-set traveling salesman problem.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

The Costs and Feasibility of Floating Offshore Wind Energy in the O'ahu Region

The State of Hawai'i has set a target to achieve a 100% Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) by 2045, and is well suited to become the first state to achieve this goal due to its relatively small load, high electricity prices, heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels, and favorable conditions for wind and solar. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management contracted NREL to conduct a cost and feasibility study to provide information to decision makers on Hawai'i about the viability of floating offshore wind to be a part of the 100% RPS. We used NREL's Offshore Regional Cost Analyzer (ORCA) spatial cost model to evaluate the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) in the region surrounding O'ahu as this is the island with the highest energy demand. The ORCA results showed that LCOE could range from around $\$$83 MWh to $\$$194 MWh for commercial operation dates in 2019 but has the potential to decrease to $\$$48 MWh - $\$$109 MWh by 2032 due to maturing global supply chains, increasing turbine rating, and new technological innovations. These costs are expected to be competitive with global floating wind costs in the early 2030s. The strong wind resource, proximity to infrastructure on land, and benign metocean conditions can potentially compensate for the logistical complexities of installing projects in Hawai'i far from mainland supply chains if sufficient investments are made to develop ports, grid infrastructure, and workforce on O'ahu to support the construction and operation of offshore wind projects. In addition to the cost results, this report also discusses the likely technologies that would comprise floating wind projects near O'ahu, the existing infrastructure available to projects, unique conditions facing offshore wind in the region such as exposure to hurricanes and limits on allowable export cable capacity, newly developed wind resource data sets for the region, and local stakeholder perspectives on offshore wind.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The Video Guidance Sensor: Space, Earth, Ground, and Sea

Engineers at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) have been developing and testing video-based sensors for automated spacecraft guidance for several years. The next generation of Video Guidance Sensor (VGS) is being designed to be faster and more capable than ever. It will have applications to relative position measurement in any field of endeavor. The system works by sequentially firing two different wavelengths of laser diodes at the target (which has retroreflectors) and processing the two images. Since the target only reflects one wavelength, it shows up well in one image and not at all in the other. Because the target's dimensions are known, the relative positions and attitudes of the target and the sensor can be computed from the spots reflected from the target. The current sensor operates at 5 Hz at ranges from 1 to 110 meters with a 20 deg. field-of-view. The Video Guidance Sensor (VGS) developed over the past several years has performed well in testing and met the objective of being used as the terminal guidance sensor for an automated rendezvous and capture system. The first VGS was successfully tested in closed-loop 3-degree-of-freedom (3-DOF) tests in 1989 and then in 6-DOF open-loop tests in 1992 and closed-loop tests in 1993-4. Development and testing continued, and in 1995 approval was given to test the VGS in an experiment on the Space Shuttle. The VGS flew in 1997 and in 1998, performing well during both flight experiments. During the development and testing before, during, and after the flight experiments, numerous areas for improvement were found. The next generation of VGS is being designed to operate at up to 100 Hz tracking rates and at ranges from 0.5 to 200 meters. In addition to its use as a spacecraft guidance sensor, it could be used as an alignment aid for an operator of a remote system (giving position and attitude feedback data), as a feedback system for a robotic arm, or for automated vehicle guidance. The next generation VGS, with its higher tracking rates, smaller size, and lower power could be used in more places than the original VGS, and by using LED's instead of laser diodes, the system would be eye-safe at any range. More potential applications include aerial station keeping (keeping 2 or more autonomous aircraft within particular relative positions), under-water robotics, and the guidance of ground vehicles in predefined areas equipped with sets of targets.

Howard, Richard T.↗

Geoengineering, marine microalgae, and climate stabilization in the 21st century

Abstract Society has set ambitious targets for stabilizing mean global temperature. To attain these targets, it will have to reduce CO 2 emissions to near zero by mid‐century and subsequently remove CO 2 from the atmosphere during the latter half of the century. There is a recognized need to develop technologies for CO 2 removal; however, attempts to develop direct air‐capture systems have faced both energetic and financial constraints. Recently, BioEnergy with Carbon Capture and Storage ( BECCS ) has emerged as a leading candidate for removing CO 2 from the atmosphere. However, BECCS can have negative consequences on land, nutrient, and water use as well as biodiversity and food production. Here, we describe an alternative approach based on the large‐scale industrial production of marine microalgae. When cultivated with proper attention to power, carbon, and nutrient sources, microalgae can be processed to produce a variety of biopetroleum products, including carbon‐neutral biofuels for the transportation sector and long‐lived, potentially carbon‐negative construction materials for the built environment. In addition to these direct roles in mitigating and potentially reversing the effects of fossil CO 2 emissions, microalgae can also play an important indirect role. As microalgae exhibit much higher primary production rates than terrestrial plants, they require much less land area to produce an equivalent amount of bioenergy and/or food. On a global scale, the avoided emissions resulting from displacement of conventional agriculture may exceed the benefits of microalgae biofuels in achieving the climate stabilization goals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Accuracy and Precision of Alchemical Relative Free Energy Predictions with and without Replica–Exchange

A systematic and statistically robust protocol is applied for the evaluation of free energy calculations with and without replica-exchange. The protocol is based on ensemble averaging to generate accurate assessments of the uncertainties in the predictions. Comparison is made between FEP+ and TIES—free energy perturbation and thermodynamic integration with enhanced sampling—the latter with and without the so-called “enhanced sampling” based on replica-exchange protocols. Standard TIES performs best for a reference set of targets and compounds; no benefits accrue from replica-exchange methods. Evaluation of FEP+ and TIES with REST—replica-exchange with solute tempering—reveals a systematic and significant underestimation of free energy differences in FEP+, which becomes increasingly large for long duration simulations, is confirmed by extensive analysis of previous publications, and raises a number of questions pertaining to the accuracy of the predictions with the REST technique not hitherto discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Macromolecular Design Strategies for Preventing Active-Material Crossover in Non-Aqueous All-Organic Redox-Flow Batteries

Intermittent energy sources, including solar and wind, require scalable, low-cost, multi-hour energy storage solutions in order to be effectively incorporated into the grid. All-Organic non-aqueous redox-flow batteries offer a solution, but suffer from rapid capacity fade and low Coulombic efficiency due to the high permeability of redox-active species across the battery's membrane. In this paper, we show that active-species crossover is arrested by scaling the membrane's pore size to molecular dimensions and in turn increasing the size of the active material above the membrane's pore-size exclusion limit. When oligomeric redox-active organics (RAOs) were paired with microporous polymer membranes, the rate of active-material crossover was reduced more than 9000-fold compared to traditional separators at minimal cost to ionic conductivity. This corresponds to an absolute rate of RAO crossover of less than 3 μmol cm -2 day -1 (for a 1.0 m concentration gradient), which exceeds performance targets recently set forth by the battery industry. Finally, this strategy was generalizable to both high and low-potential RAOs in a variety of non-aqueous electrolytes, highlighting the versatility of macromolecular design in implementing next-generation redox-flow batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗