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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1982

Analysis and Monte Carlo simulation of near-terminal aircraft flight paths

The flight paths of arriving and departing aircraft at an airport are stochastically represented. Radar data of the aircraft movements are used to decompose the flight paths into linear and curvilinear segments. Variables which describe the segments are derived, and the best fitting probability distributions of the variables, based on a sample of flight paths, are found. Conversely, given information on the probability distribution of the variables, generation of a random sample of flight paths in a Monte Carlo simulation is discussed. Actual flight paths at Dulles International Airport are analyzed and simulated.

Schiess, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Flood Hazard Assessment from Storm Tides, Rain and Sea Level Rise for a Tidal River Estuary

Cities and towns along the tidal Hudson River are highly vulnerable to flooding through the combination of storm tides and high streamflows, compounded by sea level rise. Here a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, validated by comparing peak water levels for 76 historical storms, is applied in a probabilistic flood hazard assessment. In simulations, the model merges streamflows and storm tides from tropical cyclones (TCs), offshore extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and inland "wet extratropical" cyclones (WETCs). The climatology of possible ETC and WETC storm events is represented by historical events (1931-2013), and simulations include gauged streamflows and inferred ungauged streamflows (based on watershed area) for the Hudson River and its tributaries. The TC climatology is created using a stochastic statistical model to represent a wider range of storms than is contained in the historical record. TC streamflow hydrographs are simulated for tributaries spaced along the Hudson, modeled as a function of TC attributes (storm track, sea surface temperature, maximum wind speed) using a statistical Bayesian approach. Results show WETCs are important to flood risk in the upper tidal river (e.g., Albany, New York), ETCs are important in the estuary (e.g., New York City) and lower tidal river, and TCs are important at all locations due to their potential for both high surge and extreme rainfall. The raising of floods by sea level rise is shown to be reduced by approximately 30-60 percent at Albany due to the dominance of streamflow for flood risk. This can be explained with simple channel flow dynamics, in which increased depth throughout the river reduces frictional resistance, thereby reducing the water level slope and the upriver water level.

Tidal river↗
NASA NTRS2014

Integrated Arrival and Departure Schedule Optimization Under Uncertainty

In terminal airspace, integrating arrivals and departures with shared waypoints provides the potential of improving operational efficiency by allowing direct routes when possible. Incorporating stochastic evaluation as a post-analysis process of deterministic optimization, and imposing a safety buffer in deterministic optimization, are two ways to learn and alleviate the impact of uncertainty and to avoid unexpected outcomes. This work presents a third and direct way to take uncertainty into consideration during the optimization. The impact of uncertainty was incorporated into cost evaluations when searching for the optimal solutions. The controller intervention count was computed using a heuristic model and served as another stochastic cost besides total delay. Costs under uncertainty were evaluated using Monte Carlo simulations. The Pareto fronts that contain a set of solutions were identified and the trade-off between delays and controller intervention count was shown. Solutions that shared similar delays but had different intervention counts were investigated. The results showed that optimization under uncertainty could identify compromise solutions on Pareto fonts, which is better than deterministic optimization with extra safety buffers. It helps decision-makers reduce controller intervention while achieving low delays.

stochastic optimization↗
NASA NTRS1990

Production of electron conics by stochastic acceleration parallel to the magnetic field

Electron conics are enhancements in the electron flux at the edges of the electron loss cone. Such enhancements are a common feature in the electron distribution in the auroral zone. In analogy with ion conics, it has been suggested that electron conics are produced by waves which accelerate electrons perpendicular to the magnetic field. However, using a test particle simulation of the electron distribution it is shown that electron conics can be produced purely by stochastic acceleration of the electrons parallel to a dipole magnetic field. A possible wave mode that can produce parallel acceleration is the Alfven-ion cyclotron mode that has recently been shown to modulate the high energy part of the inverted-V electron distribution.

Temerin, Michael A.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Application of remote sensing to hydrology

Streamflow forecasting and hydrologic modelling are considered in a feasibility assessment of using the data produced by remote observation from space and/or aircraft to reduce the time and expense normally involved in achieving the ability to predict the hydrological behavior of an ungaged watershed. Existing watershed models are described, and both stochastic and parametric techniques are discussed towards the selection of a suitable simulation model. Technical progress and applications are reported and recommendations are made for additional research.

Ambaruch, R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Effects of near-Earth stochastic acceleration and reflections of magnetotail ions on the formation of auroral arcs

Findings obtained from global kinetic simulations of magnetotail plasma are discussed. A region of strongly nonadiabatic ion acceleration (known as the 'wall' region) exists in the near earth tail and demarcates two very different regimes of ion motion: adiabatic and quasi-adiabatic. After convection through the wall, ion distributions rapidly become isotropized and thermalized. A strong enhancement of the cross tail current occurs on the tailward side of the wall. Comparison of numerical and adiabatic pressure profiles indicates that nonadiabatic processes operating in this region may contribute significantly to a pressure balance relief in the course of quasi-steady magnetospheric convection.

Ashour-Abdalla, Maha↗
NASA NTRS2020

Adaptive Stress Testing: Finding Likely Failure Events with Reinforcement Learning

Finding the most likely path to a set of failure states is important to the analysis of safety-critical systems that operate over a sequence of time steps, such as aircraft collision avoidance systems and autonomous cars. In many applications such as autonomous driving, failures cannot be completely eliminated due to the complex stochastic environment in which the system operates.As a result, safety validation is not only concerned about whether a failure can occur, but also discovering which failures are most likely to occur. This article presents adaptive stress testing (AST), a framework for finding the most likely path to a failure event in simulation. We consider a general black box setting for partially observable and continuous-valued systems operating in an environment with stochastic disturbances. We formulate the problem as a Markov decision process and use reinforcement learning to optimize it. The approach is simulation-based and does not require internal knowledge of the system, making it suitable for black-box testing of large systems. We present different formulations depending on whether the state is fully observable or partially observable. In the latter case, we present a modified Monte Carlo tree search algorithm that only requires access to the pseudorandom number generator of the simulator to overcome partial observability. We also present an extension of the framework, called differential adaptive stress testing (DAST), that can find failures that occur in one system but not in another. This type of differential analysis is useful in applications such as regression testing, where we are concerned with finding areas of relative weakness compared to a baseline. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach on an aircraft collision avoidance application, where a prototype aircraft collision avoidance system is stress tested to find the most likely scenarios of near mid-air collision.

Verification and Validation↗
NASA NTRS1972

Algebraic, geometric, and stochastic aspects of genetic operators

Genetic algorithms for function optimization employ genetic operators patterned after those observed in search strategies employed in natural adaptation. Two of these operators, crossover and inversion, are interpreted in terms of their algebraic and geometric properties. Stochastic models of the operators are developed which are employed in Monte Carlo simulations of their behavior.

Foo, N. Y.↗
NASA NTRS1978

The augmentation algorithm and molecular phylogenetic trees

Moore's (1977) augmentation procedure is discussed, and it is concluded that the procedure is valid for obtaining estimates of the total number of fixed nucleotide substitutions both theoretically and in practice, for both simulated and real data, and in agreement, for experimentally dense data sets, with stochastic estimates of the divergence, provided the restrictions on codon mutability resulting from natural selection are explicitly allowed for. Tateno and Nei's (1978) critique that the augmentation procedure has a systematic bias toward overestimation of the total number of nucleotide replacements is disputed, and a data analysis suggests that ancestral sequences inferred by the method of parsimony contain a large number of incorrectly assigned nucleotides.

Holmquist, R.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Simulation of Rotor Blade Element Turbulence

A turbulence model has been developed for blade-element helicopter simulation. This model, called Simulation of Rotor Blade Element Turbulence (SORBET), uses an innovative temporal and geometrical distribution algorithm that preserves the statistical characteristics of the turbulence spectra over the rotor disc, while providing velocity components in real time to each of five blade-element stations along each of four blades. An initial investigation of SORBET has been performed using a piloted, motion-based simulation of the Sikorsky UH60A Black Hawk. Although only the vertical component of stochastic turbulence was used in this investigation, vertical turbulence components induce vehicle responses in all translational and rotational degrees of freedom of the helicopter. The single-degree-of-freedom configuration of SORBET was compared to a conventional full 6-degrees-of-freedom baseline configuration, where translational velocity inputs are superimposed at the vehicle center of gravity, and rotational velocity inputs are created from filters that approximate the immersion rate into the turbulent field. For high-speed flight the vehicle responses were satisfactory for both models. Test pilots could not distinguish differences between the baseline configuration and SORBET. In low-speed flight the baseline configuration received criticism for its high frequency content, whereas the SORBET model elicited favorable pilot opinion. For this helicopter, which has fully articulated blades, results from SORBET show that vehicle responses to turbulent blade-station disturbances are severely attenuated. This is corroborated by in-flight observation of the rotor tip path plane as compared to vehicle responses.

McFarland, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Time-Series Analysis of Supergranule Characterstics at Solar Minimum

Sixty days of Doppler images from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) / Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) investigation during the 1996 and 2008 solar minima have been analyzed to show that certain supergranule characteristics (size, size range, and horizontal velocity) exhibit fluctuations of three to five days. Cross-correlating parameters showed a good, positive correlation between supergranulation size and size range, and a moderate, negative correlation between size range and velocity. The size and velocity do exhibit a moderate, negative correlation, but with a small time lag (less than 12 hours). Supergranule sizes during five days of co-temporal data from MDI and the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) / Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI) exhibit similar fluctuations with a high level of correlation between them. This verifies the solar origin of the fluctuations, which cannot be caused by instrumental artifacts according to these observations. Similar fluctuations are also observed in data simulations that model the evolution of the MDI Doppler pattern over a 60-day period. Correlations between the supergranule size and size range time-series derived from the simulated data are similar to those seen in MDI data. A simple toy-model using cumulative, uncorrelated exponential growth and decay patterns at random emergence times produces a time-series similar to the data simulations. The qualitative similarities between the simulated and the observed time-series suggest that the fluctuations arise from stochastic processes occurring within the solar convection zone. This behavior, propagating to surface manifestations of supergranulation, may assist our understanding of magnetic-field-line advection, evolution, and interaction.

Dopplergrams↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Verifying Autonomous Air Traffic Algorithms in the Presence of Sensor Error and Flight Perturbations

We offer a method to verify algorithms for air traffic control in the presence of sensor errors and flight perturbations. Since errors and perturbations are described by stochastic processes, verification by analytical methods is difficult. We turn to Monte Carlo simulation, but there are two major obstacles. Since air traffic algorithms are safety-critical, the algorithm must be established at a very high confidence level which requires an enormous number of trials. Another is that a simulation attempts to show that an algorithm correctly handles a hazard that might appear, but there is a lack of information about the frequency of occurrence of hazards in the airspace. This paper offers a solution to these and other obstacles. It recognizes there may be a number of algorithms that address different hazards, and the results of the different simulations must be combined to satisfy a global reliability requirement at a high confidence level. To demonstrate the feasibility of the approach, we apply it to an example, an initial effort in collision avoidance.

verification↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Parallelized Oxidation-Driven Surface Recession Framework in DSMC Code, SPARTA

Spacecrafts rely on ablative thermal protection systems (TPS) made of composites consisting of a carbon-based reinforcement and a polymeric matrix. These materials are designed to withstand high-temperature oxidation and surface recession during re-entry into the Earth's atmosphere. However, ablation occurs due to a complex interplay of thermal, mechanical, and chemical factors, making it challenging to determine the individual impact of each on the TPS's overall degradation. In this study, we have developed an ablation model that can leverage a finite rate carbon oxidation model to predict material recession and surface states more accurately. Stochastic PArallel Rarified-gas Time-accurate Analyzer (SPARTA), a direct-simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) code, is modified to allow oxidation-driven ablation of implicitly defined carbon surfaces. In SPARTA, implicit surfaces are generated from the grid corner point values via a marching cubes algorithm, therefore creating a new set of surface elements every time ablation is performed. The finite-rate oxidation model developed by Gopalan et. al can perform both gas-surface and pure-surface reactions and is now adapted to tally surface data on a per grid cell basis. The ablation functionality was also adjusted so once the reactions have occurred, the number of reactions leading to CO formation can be converted to corner point reduction values; therefore, carbon removal is directly proportional to surface recession. We also briefly discuss some unique challenges associated with parallelizing this dynamic surface state and geometry. Finally, we analyze the performance of this parallelized implicit chemistry model with simple 2D and 3D benchmark cases by producing surface state statistics, area changes over time, and visualization across a range of surface temperatures and processors with and without load-balancing.

DSMC↗
NASA NTRS2006

Automated Antenna Design with Evolutionary Algorithms

Current methods of designing and optimizing antennas by hand are time and labor intensive, and limit complexity. Evolutionary design techniques can overcome these limitations by searching the design space and automatically finding effective solutions. In recent years, evolutionary algorithms have shown great promise in finding practical solutions in large, poorly understood design spaces. In particular, spacecraft antenna design has proven tractable to evolutionary design techniques. Researchers have been investigating evolutionary antenna design and optimization since the early 1990s, and the field has grown in recent years as computer speed has increased and electromagnetic simulators have improved. Two requirements-compliant antennas, one for ST5 and another for TDRS-C, have been automatically designed by evolutionary algorithms. The ST5 antenna is slated to fly this year, and a TDRS-C phased array element has been fabricated and tested. Such automated evolutionary design is enabled by medium-to-high quality simulators and fast modern computers to evaluate computer-generated designs. Evolutionary algorithms automate cut-and-try engineering, substituting automated search though millions of potential designs for intelligent search by engineers through a much smaller number of designs. For evolutionary design, the engineer chooses the evolutionary technique, parameters and the basic form of the antenna, e.g., single wire for ST5 and crossed-element Yagi for TDRS-C. Evolutionary algorithms then search for optimal configurations in the space defined by the engineer. NASA's Space Technology 5 (ST5) mission will launch three small spacecraft to test innovative concepts and technologies. Advanced evolutionary algorithms were used to automatically design antennas for ST5. The combination of wide beamwidth for a circularly-polarized wave and wide impedance bandwidth made for a challenging antenna design problem. From past experience in designing wire antennas, we chose to constrain the evolutionary design to a monopole wire antenna. The results of the runs produced requirements-compliant antennas that were subsequently fabricated and tested. The evolved antenna has a number of advantages with regard to power consumption, fabrication time and complexity, and performance. Lower power requirements result from achieving high gain across a wider range of elevation angles, thus allowing a broader range of angles over which maximum data throughput can be achieved. Since the evolved antenna does not require a phasing circuit, less design and fabrication work is required. In terms of overall work, the evolved antenna required approximately three person-months to design and fabricate whereas the conventional antenna required about five. Furthermore, when the mission was modified and new orbital parameters selected, a redesign of the antenna to new requirements was required. The evolutionary system was rapidly modified and a new antenna evolved in a few weeks. The evolved antenna was shown to be compliant to the ST5 mission requirements. It has an unusual organic looking structure, one that expert antenna designers would not likely produce. This antenna has been tested, baselined and is scheduled to fly this year. In addition to the ST5 antenna, our laboratory has evolved an S-band phased array antenna element design that meets the requirements for NASA's TDRS-C communications satellite scheduled for launch early next decade. A combination of fairly broad bandwidth, high efficiency and circular polarization at high gain made for another challenging design problem. We chose to constrain the evolutionary design to a crossed-element Yagi antenna. The specification called for two types of elements, one for receive only and one for transmit/receive. We were able to evolve a single element design that meets both specifications thereby simplifying the antenna and reducing testing and integration costs. The highest performance antenna found using a getic algorithm and stochastic hill-climbing has been fabricated and tested. Laboratory results correspond well with simulation. Aerospace component design is an expensive and important step in space development. Evolutionary design can make a significant contribution wherever sufficiently fast, accurate and capable software simulators are available. We have demonstrated successful real-world design in the spacecraft antenna domain; and there is good reason to believe that these results could be replicated in other design spaces.

Hornby, Gregory S.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Effect of Stochastic Acceleration on the Dynamics of Solar Energetic Particles in the Heliosphere

Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) are crucial in space weather phenomena, impacting space-based technologies and human activities in space. Understanding the dynamics of SEPs, including their acceleration and transport mechanisms, is essential for improving predictive models and mitigating adverse effects. This study investigates the impact of stochastic acceleration (SA) on the dynamics of SEPs within the heliosphere. By integrating stochastic acceleration into a SEP transport model, we assess its impact relative to diffusive shock acceleration (DSA). The investigation utilizes the Adaptive Mesh Particle Simulator (AMPS) within the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to simulate SEP dynamics, incorporating solar wind parameters and turbulence from the Alfven Wave Solar Model (AWSoM). To do this, we solve the focused transport equation to model the propagation of SEPs along magnetic field lines, extending these lines to 5 AU to incorporate the potential effects of pitch angle scattering beyond 1 AU. This aspect could notably impact the decay phase of a SEP event. Modeling the transport of SEPs is coupled with the simulation of solar wind dynamics, the interplanetary magnetic field, and the characteristics of Alfven wave turbulence. This presentation covers the modeling approach used in this research, the characterization of the impact of the stochastic acceleration, and the role of pitch angle scattering at various heliocentric distances on the dynamics of the SEP events' decay phase.

SEP↗
NASA NTRS1972

Two stochastic models useful in petroleum exploration

A model of the petroleum exploration process that tests empirically the hypothesis that at an early stage in the exploration of a basin, the process behaves like sampling without replacement is proposed along with a model of the spatial distribution of petroleum reserviors that conforms to observed facts. In developing the model of discovery, the following topics are discussed: probabilitistic proportionality, likelihood function, and maximum likelihood estimation. In addition, the spatial model is described, which is defined as a stochastic process generating values of a sequence or random variables in a way that simulates the frequency distribution of areal extent, the geographic location, and shape of oil deposits

Kaufman, G. M.↗