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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2024

Statistically-driven Experimental Design to Improve Reference-free Quantification of Small Molecules by Liquid Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry

Non-targeted analysis of small molecules and metabolites in unknown, complex samples using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry remains challenging. One of the main bottlenecks is the extensive unannotated regions of metabolomics mass spectrometry data, resulting in knowledge gaps. Small molecule annotation in mass spectrometry data has conventionally relied on reference standards and libraries for compound identification and confirmation, which can constrain compound identification to those molecules already known, thus limiting the ability to discover new knowledge and new markers. Retention time prediction can facilitate and expedite unknown compound identification in non-targeted analysis of complex metabolomics samples. Additionally, accurate retention time predictions can also inform sample mixture design for LC-MS/MS analyses. However, current machine learning-based methods for retention time prediction are typically developed for specific chromatographic platforms and are not generalizable across scales. And while technologies and methods to improve reference-free metabolite identification for more comprehensive annotation of unknowns has received much attention, development of the same for quantitation without reference standards has been much more limited, despite its importance in toxicological, environmental, food safety, forensics, and clinical applications. We believe that a reference-free quantitation strategy that exploits mass spectrometry data already collected for reference-free identification can provide much more insight on unknowns, and move the metabolomics field for more complete unknowns characterization. As such, we pursue two efforts to improve upon current state-of-the-art methods in non-targeted analysis: (1) machine learning-based retention time prediction and (2) statistical design of experiments framework for reference-free quantitation. In this work, we develop and demonstrate (1) a generalizable retention time prediction capability across chromatographic conditions and scales, and (2) a statistical design-based framework for response factor contribution elucidation and reference-free quantitation. Evaluation of our retention time prediction model, PrediToR, showed approximately 24% improvement over current models, and we observed approximately 10X improvement in concentration estimation accuracy from our statistical design-based response factor model over a primarily ionization efficiency-based model. We expect that future efforts to improve upon these new capabilities will further advance non-targeted analysis of small molecules towards truly reference-free metabolomics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1998

Predicting lettuce canopy photosynthesis with statistical and neural network models

An artificial neural network (NN) and a statistical regression model were developed to predict canopy photosynthetic rates (Pn) for 'Waldman's Green' leaf lettuce (Latuca sativa L.). All data used to develop and test the models were collected for crop stands grown hydroponically and under controlled-environment conditions. In the NN and regression models, canopy Pn was predicted as a function of three independent variables: shootzone CO2 concentration (600 to 1500 micromoles mol-1), photosynthetic photon flux (PPF) (600 to 1100 micromoles m-2 s-1), and canopy age (10 to 20 days after planting). The models were used to determine the combinations of CO2 and PPF setpoints required each day to maintain maximum canopy Pn. The statistical model (a third-order polynomial) predicted Pn more accurately than the simple NN (a three-layer, fully connected net). Over an 11-day validation period, average percent difference between predicted and actual Pn was 12.3% and 24.6% for the statistical and NN models, respectively. Both models lost considerable accuracy when used to determine relatively long-range Pn predictions (> or = 6 days into the future).

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS1995

Statistical properties of DNA sequences

We review evidence supporting the idea that the DNA sequence in genes containing non-coding regions is correlated, and that the correlation is remarkably long range--indeed, nucleotides thousands of base pairs distant are correlated. We do not find such a long-range correlation in the coding regions of the gene. We resolve the problem of the "non-stationarity" feature of the sequence of base pairs by applying a new algorithm called detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). We address the claim of Voss that there is no difference in the statistical properties of coding and non-coding regions of DNA by systematically applying the DFA algorithm, as well as standard FFT analysis, to every DNA sequence (33301 coding and 29453 non-coding) in the entire GenBank database. Finally, we describe briefly some recent work showing that the non-coding sequences have certain statistical features in common with natural and artificial languages. Specifically, we adapt to DNA the Zipf approach to analyzing linguistic texts. These statistical properties of non-coding sequences support the possibility that non-coding regions of DNA may carry biological information.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS1995

Systematic analysis of coding and noncoding DNA sequences using methods of statistical linguistics

We compare the statistical properties of coding and noncoding regions in eukaryotic and viral DNA sequences by adapting two tests developed for the analysis of natural languages and symbolic sequences. The data set comprises all 30 sequences of length above 50 000 base pairs in GenBank Release No. 81.0, as well as the recently published sequences of C. elegans chromosome III (2.2 Mbp) and yeast chromosome XI (661 Kbp). We find that for the three chromosomes we studied the statistical properties of noncoding regions appear to be closer to those observed in natural languages than those of coding regions. In particular, (i) a n-tuple Zipf analysis of noncoding regions reveals a regime close to power-law behavior while the coding regions show logarithmic behavior over a wide interval, while (ii) an n-gram entropy measurement shows that the noncoding regions have a lower n-gram entropy (and hence a larger "n-gram redundancy") than the coding regions. In contrast to the three chromosomes, we find that for vertebrates such as primates and rodents and for viral DNA, the difference between the statistical properties of coding and noncoding regions is not pronounced and therefore the results of the analyses of the investigated sequences are less conclusive. After noting the intrinsic limitations of the n-gram redundancy analysis, we also briefly discuss the failure of the zeroth- and first-order Markovian models or simple nucleotide repeats to account fully for these "linguistic" features of DNA. Finally, we emphasize that our results by no means prove the existence of a "language" in noncoding DNA.

NASA Discipline Number 14-10↗

NASA NTRS1998

Examination of two methods for statistical analysis of data with magnitude and direction emphasizing vestibular research applications

When the dependent (or response) variable response variable in an experiment has direction and magnitude, one approach that has been used for statistical analysis involves splitting magnitude and direction and applying univariate statistical techniques to the components. However, such treatment of quantities with direction and magnitude is not justifiable mathematically and can lead to incorrect conclusions about relationships among variables and, as a result, to flawed interpretations. This note discusses a problem with that practice and recommends mathematically correct procedures to be used with dependent variables that have direction and magnitude for 1) computation of mean values, 2) statistical contrasts of and confidence intervals for means, and 3) correlation methods.

Vestibule↗

NASA NTRS2010

Statistical Analysis of CFD Solutions from the Fourth AIAA Drag Prediction Workshop

A graphical framework is used for statistical analysis of the results from an extensive N-version test of a collection of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes computational fluid dynamics codes. The solutions were obtained by code developers and users from the U.S., Europe, Asia, and Russia using a variety of grid systems and turbulence models for the June 2009 4th Drag Prediction Workshop sponsored by the AIAA Applied Aerodynamics Technical Committee. The aerodynamic configuration for this workshop was a new subsonic transport model, the Common Research Model, designed using a modern approach for the wing and included a horizontal tail. The fourth workshop focused on the prediction of both absolute and incremental drag levels for wing-body and wing-body-horizontal tail configurations. This work continues the statistical analysis begun in the earlier workshops and compares the results from the grid convergence study of the most recent workshop with earlier workshops using the statistical framework.

Statistical analysis↗

NASA NTRS2013

Validating an Air Traffic Management Concept of Operation Using Statistical Modeling

Validating a concept of operation for a complex, safety-critical system (like the National Airspace System) is challenging because of the high dimensionality of the controllable parameters and the infinite number of states of the system. In this paper, we use statistical modeling techniques to explore the behavior of a conflict detection and resolution algorithm designed for the terminal airspace. These techniques predict the robustness of the system simulation to both nominal and off-nominal behaviors within the overall airspace. They also can be used to evaluate the output of the simulation against recorded airspace data. Additionally, the techniques carry with them a mathematical value of the worth of each prediction-a statistical uncertainty for any robustness estimate. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is the process of quantitative characterization and ultimately a reduction of uncertainties in complex systems. UQ is important for understanding the influence of uncertainties on the behavior of a system and therefore is valuable for design, analysis, and verification and validation. In this paper, we apply advanced statistical modeling methodologies and techniques on an advanced air traffic management system, namely the Terminal Tactical Separation Assured Flight Environment (T-TSAFE). We show initial results for a parameter analysis and safety boundary (envelope) detection in the high-dimensional parameter space. For our boundary analysis, we developed a new sequential approach based upon the design of computer experiments, allowing us to incorporate knowledge from domain experts into our modeling and to determine the most likely boundary shapes and its parameters. We carried out the analysis on system parameters and describe an initial approach that will allow us to include time-series inputs, such as the radar track data, into the analysis

Statistical emulation↗

NASA NTRS2014

Bayesian Statistics and Uncertainty Quantification for Safety Boundary Analysis in Complex Systems

The analysis of a safety-critical system often requires detailed knowledge of safe regions and their highdimensional non-linear boundaries. We present a statistical approach to iteratively detect and characterize the boundaries, which are provided as parameterized shape candidates. Using methods from uncertainty quantification and active learning, we incrementally construct a statistical model from only few simulation runs and obtain statistically sound estimates of the shape parameters for safety boundaries.

Active Learning↗

NASA NTRS2016

Canonical Statistical Model for Maximum Expected Immission of Wire Conductor in an Aperture Enclosure

Prediction of the maximum expected electromagnetic pick-up of conductors inside a realistic shielding enclosure is an important canonical problem for system-level EMC design of space craft, launch vehicles, aircraft and automobiles. This paper introduces a simple statistical power balance model for prediction of the maximum expected current in a wire conductor inside an aperture enclosure. It calculates both the statistical mean and variance of the immission from the physical design parameters of the problem. Familiar probability density functions can then be used to predict the maximum expected immission for deign purposes. The statistical power balance model requires minimal EMC design information and solves orders of magnitude faster than existing numerical models, making it ultimately viable for scaled-up, full system-level modeling. Both experimental test results and full wave simulation results are used to validate the foundational model.

Computational electromagnetics↗

NASA NTRS2020

Chrono-Validation of Near-Real-Time Landslide Susceptibility Models via Plugin Statistical Simulations

The idea behind any validation scheme in landslide susceptibility studies is to test whether a model calibrated on a certain data can predict an unknown dataset of the same nature (landslide presences/absences and covariates). Almost the entirety of landslide susceptibility studies are validated by subsetting a single dataset into a training and test sets. This dataset usually corresponds either to event-specific or to historical inventories. Very rarely, a multi-temporal inventory is available and, in the few cases where this condition is met, the validation practices involve training a model on a specific landslide inventory, deriving a single predictive equation and validating it on a subsequent landslide inventory. This commonly leads landslide predictive studies, even those with a strong statistical rigor, to neglect the uncertainty estimation in their modeling scheme. In statistics, validation can also be performed via statistical simulations. This means that after fitting a given model, one can generate any number of predictive functions and test their predictive skills on any type and number of unknown datasets. In this work, we take a similar direction and we apply it to model and validate three separate co-seismic inventories, including an uncertainty estimation phase. We mapped these inventories within the same area in Indonesia, for three earthquakes occurred in 2012, 2017 and 2018. Specifically, we build three event-specific Bayesian Generalize Additive Models of the binomial family. From each model we then simulate 1000 predictive realizations over the remaining two inventories, by using a plug-in scheme where all the morphometric covariates are kept fixed and only the ground motion is replaced according to the prediction target. By doing so, we introduce a new analytical tool for near-real-time landslide predictive purposes, which is able to produce a probabilistic model which stands in between the definitions of susceptibility and hazard. In fact, our model is able to accurately estimate “where” and “when” - although not “how frequently” - landslide have occurred by featuring the multitemporal information of the trigger. In our findings, the simulations are quite similar to the fitted models; and the nine combinations we analyse produce excellent performance. This result confirms the assumption that “the past is the key to the future”, as we show that the relative contribution of each variable and their interactions in each probabilistic model remains practically the same across temporal replicates. This information is not trivial because it supports the routines implemented in global near-real-time applications.

Temporal validation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

System and Safety Analysis with SysAI A Statistical Learning Framework

This is a tutorial on how to use the SYSAI (System Analysis using Statistical AI), a flexible statistical learning framework for the V&V and analysis of complex and high-dimensional Aerospace systems with DNN and AI components. SYSAI provides functionality for a variety of analyses and V&V tasks, including statistical data analysis, high dimensional safety-envelope and time-series analysis, property checking, as well as intelligent test-case generation. The tutorial will demonstrate SYSAI with our industrial partner’s Autonomous Centerline Tracking system, which uses a DNN to enable autonomous aircraft taxiing as an example. Video & Tutorial

Statistical V&V for Complex safety-critical system↗

DOE OSTI2026

Statistics of base polytopes in F-theory

We propose a new statistical ensemble of toric bases for elliptic Calabi-Yaus used in F-theory models, by focusing on only the convex hull of the base, i.e., the base polytope. This physically motivated coarse-graining greatly simplifies the combinatorial complexity of the part of the 4d F-theory landscape with toric bases. We develop a Monte Carlo approach that randomly samples the base polytopes within fixed boxes, with proper statistical weights. We first apply the algorithm to the set of 2d base polytopes, generating an enlarged set of toric 2d bases that include certain types of codimension-two (4,6) points, and we validate our approach against exact numbers. We then explore the set of 3d base polytopes which fit in a set of “maximal” 3d boxes, and estimate the total number of inequivalent 3d base polytopes to be 10 85 –10 90 . We provide statistical data such as the distribution of non-Higgsable gauge groups on these bases. Amusingly, a similar method can also be applied to generate reflexive polytopes in various dimensions. In both the reflexive and base polytope cases, the number of relevant polytopes obeys a Gaussian distribution as a function of the number of vertices, which can be understood in terms of other results on random polytopes in the math literature.

Differential and algebraic geometry↗

DOE OSTI2025

Statistical evaluation of microscale stress conditions leading to void nucleation in the weak shock regime

Here, we investigate the heterogeneity of the stress state driven by anisotropic deformation response at the single crystal level through five statistical volume element (SVE) calculations of polycrystalline BCC tantalum. This work focuses on grain boundaries as a prominent material defect type prone to void nucleation based upon experimental observations of predominantly intergranular void nucleation in this material. The SVEs are constructed to be statistically representative of larger volumes of material and are meshed such that mean and standard deviation of grain size and orientation information is reconstructed. The computational meshes feature hexahedral (brick) elements and smooth conformal grain boundaries where significant stress concentration is known to occur, a tail effect of interest in the extreme events process of dynamic ductile damage. An existing micromechanical crystallographic plasticity model shown to capture the single crystal behavior of BCC tantalum well is used to perform the polycrystal calculations. The model includes representation of the non-Schmid effect of non-planar screw dislocation kinetics in tantalum. A three-dimensional stress state time profile predicted by damage modeling of a flyer plate impact experiment is applied as boundary conditions to each SVE. Resulting grain boundary stress state statistics are strongly non-Gaussian. Significant structural evolution is observed within the compressive hold before unloading into tension in the stress profile. Strong angular dependence of grain boundary traction magnitude with shock direction is observed. Non-Schmid effects continue to suggest their influence on propensity of microstructural defect types to nucleate voids. A general void nucleation criterion is proposed using probability theory. The general framework is specified to polycrystalline BCC tantalum in the weak shock regime to include the SVE calculations and literature molecular dynamics calculations of grain boundary void nucleation strength. Probability density functions (PDFs) are used to describe the interaction between the local stress state heterogeneity and the distributed grain boundary void nucleation strength state. A causation entropy maximization procedure removes the requirement for ad hoc selection of a PDF functional form and provides a rigorous procedure for data-based PDF determination. The resulting physically informed PDF describes the spatial appearance frequency of nucleated voids as a function of applied macroscale pressure. Lower length scale physics are thus packaged in a precise and computationally efficient way to provide computational plasticity insight to macroscale dynamic ductile damage models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Development of a Generalized Riser Flow Regime Map Based Upon Higher Moment and Chaotic Statistics Using Electrical Capacitance Volume Tomography (ECVT)

Dynamic analyses have been applied to the temporal signals from an Electro Capacitance Volume Tomography instrument located near mid-height on the riser of an industrial-scale cold-flow circulating fluidized bed to characterize gas-solids flow behavior in the riser. Twelve capacitance electrodes surround the cylindrical riser over a height of 1.3 m. The instrument used a neural network deconvolution algorithm to determine the spatially resolved solids fraction recorded at 52 Hz. Experiments were carried out over a range of gas and solids flows in the transport regime using a Geldart Group B bed material, high density polyethylene with mean particle size of 880 μm. The radial solids distribution was found to vary from one-time step to the next between profiles typical of laminar and turbulent flow. The duration of time spent in each of these flow profiles depended upon the operating regime – dilute, core-annular, or fast fluidized bed. The chaotic structure of the temporal data was characterized using the three conventional approaches: the first 4 moments from the distribution of signal in time, system memory parameters from the autocorrelation function and the Hurst exponent, and analysis of the correlationentropy and correlation dimension of the attractor. These signal analysis techniques were used to clearly distinguish differences between different transport operating regimes. Specifically, it was experimentally observed that a riser transitions from core annular flow profile to dilute and dense regimes via increasing the frequency of short term transients to either dilute or dense flow profiles, respectively. A regime map was generated based upon these dynamics using solids flux and gas velocity axes. Fast fluidized, core annular, and dilute each exhibited different degree of dynamic characteristics typical of fluid dominated or particle compromising behavior. It should be noted that the magnitude for the different statistics was in the same range regardless of the regime, it was the radial profile for the statistic that changed and subsequently identified that there was a change in the regime. Finally, a reduced regime map was developed consisting of plotting the gas velocity normalized by the upper transport velocity versus the solids flux normalized by the saturation carrying capacity. The use of this reduced plot allowed the data from widely different conditions to be plotted and compared on the same<p>graph. Note that in many instances, some of the statistics identified the operating point as being in one regime while others indicated that it was in another indicating a transition region between dilute or core annular regimes and between the core annular and fast fluidization regimes. This now provides a tool that can be used to optimize process performance, identify changes in operating states, or replicate process dynamics during process scaling or changing operating parameters. </p>

Breault, Ronald↗

DOE OSTI2020

A statistical model for the product energy distribution in reactions leading to prompt dissociation

Direct dynamics calculations have been performed for three reactions: C 3 H 8 + H → i-C 3 H 7 + H 2 , C 3 H 8 + H → n-C 3 H 7 + H 2 , and C 2 H 3 + O 2 → HCO + CH 2 O. The fraction of the population for the radical products that promptly dissociates is computed. Here the results for C 3 H 8 + H are qualitatively similar to previous results for C 3 H 8 + OH, but the new results exhibit a slightly higher branching fraction for prompt dissociation products, owing to the fact that a greater fraction of the internal energy in the transition state ends up in the radical. For C 2 H 3 + O 2 → HCO + CH 2 O, the fraction of HCO that promptly dissociates is in excess of 99%. Consequently, the main product for C 2 H 3 + O 2 at lower temperatures should be written as H + CO + CH 2 O and not HCO + CH 2 O. These results are then compared with four previous systems: CH 2 O + H → HCO + H 2 , CH 2 O + OH → HCO + H 2 O, C 3 H 8 + OH → i-C 3 H 7 + H 2 O, and C 3 H 8 + OH → n-C 3 H 7 + H 2 O. Based upon these seven system, several statistical models are presented. The goal of these statistical models is to predict the fraction of the transition state energy that ends up in the rovibrationally excited radical. On average, these statistical models provide an excellent prediction of product energy distribution. Consequently, these models can be used instead of costly trajectory simulations for predicting prompt radical dissociation for larger species.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Statistical characterization of experimental magnetized liner inertial fusion stagnation images using deep-learning-based fuel–background segmentation

Significant variety is observed in spherical crystal x-ray imager (SCXI) data for the stagnated fuel–liner system created in Magnetized Liner Inertial Fusion (MagLIF) experiments conducted at the Sandia National Laboratories Z-facility. As a result, image analysis tasks involving, e.g., region-of-interest selection (i.e. segmentation), background subtraction and image registration have generally required tedious manual treatment leading to increased risk of irreproducibility, lack of uncertainty quantification and smaller-scale studies using only a fraction of available data. We present a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based pipeline to automate much of the image processing workflow. This tool enabled batch preprocessing of an ensemble of N scans = 139 SCXI images across N exp = 67 different experiments for subsequent study. The pipeline begins by segmenting images into the stagnated fuel and background using a CNN trained on synthetic images generated from a geometric model of a physical three-dimensional plasma. The resulting segmentation allows for a rules-based registration. Our approach flexibly handles rarely occurring artifacts through minimal user input and avoids the need for extensive hand labelling and augmentation of our experimental dataset that would be needed to train an end-to-end pipeline. Here we also fit background pixels using low-degree polynomials, and perform a statistical assessment of the background and noise properties over the entire image database. Our results provide a guide for choices made in statistical inference models using stagnation image data and can be applied in the generation of synthetic datasets with realistic choices of noise statistics and background models used for machine learning tasks in MagLIF data analysis. We anticipate that the method may be readily extended to automate other MagLIF stagnation imaging applications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

pmartR 2.0 : A Quality Control, Visualization, and Statistics Pipeline for Multiple Omics Datatypes

The pmartR (https://github.com/pmartR/pmartR) package was designed for the quality control (QC) and analysis of mass spectrometry (MS) data, tailored to specific characteristics of proteomic (isobaric or labelled), metabolomic, and lipidomic datasets. Since its initial release, the tool has been expanded to address the needs of its growing userbase and now includes QC and statistics for nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) metabolomic data, and leverages the DESeq2, edgeR, and limma-voom R packages for some transcriptomic data analyses. These improvements have made progress towards a unified omics processing pipeline for ease of reporting and streamlined statistical purposes. The package’s statistics and visualization capabilities have also been expanded by adding support for paired data and by integrating pmartR with the trelliscopejs R package for the quick creation of trellis displays (https://github.com/hafen/trelliscopejs). Here, we present relevant examples of each of these enhancements to pmartR and highlight how each new feature benefits the omics community.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Investigation of the Self-Assembly Behavior of Statistical Bottlebrush Copolymers via Self-Consistent Field Theory Simulations

Bottlebrush copolymers, a class of high-density side-chain-grafted copolymers with high molecular weights, have recently attracted extensive research attention due to the dramatic reduction of chain entanglement in these copolymers, unique self-assembly behaviors, and distinctive physical properties. In this study, we employ self-consistent field theory simulations to systemically investigate the phase behavior of statistical bottlebrush copolymers A-stat-B, an intriguing subclass of bottlebrush copolymers with random or alternating sequences of A and B side chains. We find that a broader variety of ordered mesophases can be stabilized in the melts of these copolymers relative to the more extensively studied bottlebrush block copolymers. In particular, we observe that these statistical copolymers can stabilize sphere phases over a larger range of species volume fractions than their diblock and tetrablock counterparts but require much higher segregation strength to achieve this. The sphere and hexagonally packed cylinder phases formed by conformationally symmetric statistical bottlebrush copolymers possess interesting discrete core–shell structures with the backbone and lower volume fraction side-chain species forming shells and cores, respectively. Moreover, we uncover a new strategy of stabilizing the Frank–Kasper phase A15 by introducing conformational asymmetry through different side-chain lengths and also observe deflection of order–order phase boundaries and significant mixing between the backbones and short side chains as conformational asymmetry is introduced.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗