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DOE OSTI2023

Mechanisms behind impurity spreading in a channeled, long-leg divertor configuration

One suggested benefit of long-leg, tightly baffled divertor configurations, a common feature included in the designs of many next-generation fusion devices, is access to a delocalized “spread” of impurity radiation along the leg, allowing for a substantial radiation region while maintaining both sufficient distance from the core to prevent pollution of the plasma fuel and avoiding local overheating of the plasma-facing materials. However, it is unclear whether this increased connection length and divertor volume afforded by the long-leg configuration is compatible with impurity transport, and whether it will enable this desired impurity radiation spread at all. Here, the SOLPS 4.3 code is used to assess the distribution of nitrogen and neon impurity radiation in a long-leg, tightly baffled divertor geometry. Further, there is a strong correspondence between the distribution of impurity radiation in the long leg and impurity recycling on the divertor side walls with both the nitrogen simulation set and the neon simulation set, suggesting that impurity spreading along these long legs is due to the interplay between the cross-field transport and associated neutralization of the impurity on the material surfaces.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Warning signals for eruptive events in spreading fires

Significance As flames spread through forests, buildings, or other complex environments, they can erupt, unexpectedly, into fast-moving conflagrations. This study presents evidence that characteristic patterns in the behavior of spreading flames may indicate when such eruptions are likely to occur. Our results rely on the detection of a phenomenon termed “critical slowing down”—the slowed recovery of multistable systems from perturbations as those systems approach tipping points. Using a bistable combustion system in which flames propagate either as small, slowly moving flames, or as large, rapidly moving flames stabilized by feedback between wind and fire, we provide evidence that slowing responses of spreading flames to sudden changes in environment (e.g., wind, terrain) may anticipate the onset of intense, feedback-stabilized modes of propagation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

THE ORIGIN OF THE SPURIOUS IRON SPREAD IN THE GLOBULAR CLUSTER NGC 3201

NGC 3201 is a globular cluster suspected to have an intrinsic spread in the iron content. We re-analyzed a sample of 21 cluster stars observed with UVES-FLAMES at the Very Large Telescope and for which Simmerer et al. found a 0.4 dex wide [Fe/H] distribution with a metal-poor tail. We confirmed that when spectroscopic gravities are adopted, the derived [Fe/H] distribution spans ∼0.4 dex. On the other hand, when photometric gravities are used, the metallicity distribution from Fe I lines remains large, while that derived from Fe II lines is narrow and compatible with no iron spread. We demonstrate that the metal-poor component claimed by Simmerer et al. is composed by asymptotic giant branch stars that could be affected by non-local thermodynamical equilibrium effects driven by iron overionization. This leads to a decrease of the Fe I abundance, while leaving the Fe II abundance unaltered. A similar finding has been already found in asymptotic giant branch stars of the globular clusters M5 and 47 Tucanae. We conclude that NGC 3201 is a normal cluster, with no evidence of intrinsic iron spread.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

A chemical TROMPE-L’ŒIL: No iron spread in the globular clusteR M22

We present the analysis of high-resolution spectra obtained with UVES and UVES-FLAMES at the Very Large Telescope of 17 giants in the globular cluster (GC) M22, a stellar system suspected to have an intrinsic spread in iron abundance. We find that when surface gravities are derived spectroscopically (in order to obtain the same iron abundance from Fe i and Fe ii lines) the [Fe/H] distribution spans ∼0.5 dex, according to previous analyses. However, the gravities obtained in this way correspond to unrealistically low stellar masses (0.1–0.5 M{sub ⊙}) for most of the surveyed giants. Instead, when photometric gravities are adopted, the [Fe ii/H] distribution shows no evidence of spread, in variance with the [Fe i/H] distribution. This difference has been recently observed in other clusters and could be due to non-local thermodynamical equilibrium effects driven by over-ionization mechanisms that mainly affect the neutral species (thus providing lower [Fe i/H]), but leave [Fe ii/H] unaltered. We confirm that the s-process elements show significant star-to-star variations and their abundances appear to be correlated with the difference between [Fe i/H] and [Fe ii/H]. This puzzling finding suggests that the peculiar chemical composition of some cluster stars may be related to effects able to spuriously decrease [Fe i/H]. We conclude that M22 is a GC with no evidence of intrinsic iron spread, ruling out that it has retained the supernovae ejecta in its gravitational potential well.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Physics of turbulence spreading and explicit nonlocality

In this paper, we systematically derive a model for turbulence spreading from the basic kinetic equation. The model contains explicit nonlocal nonlinear diffusion and nonlocal growth. When the nonlocality scale parameter δ b (banana width) vanishes, this model reduces to the usual turbulence spreading model. We elucidate the mechanisms of nonlinear saturation and nonlocal growth. Results show that nonlocal effects, especially the nonlocal growth, thicken the turbulence spreading front and increase the speed of front propagation. More turbulence intensity penetrates the stable region when δ b increases. The penetration depth Δ p is proportional to $ \delta_b/L_T $, therefore the fraction of turbulence in the unstable region scales as 1 – δ b* . Lastly, the transport scales the same way.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

The spread of technological innovations: effects of psychology, culture and policy interventions

Technological innovations drive the evolution of human societies. The success of innovations depends not only on their actual benefits but also on how potential adopters perceive them and how their beliefs are affected by their social and cultural environment. To deepen our understanding of socio-psychological processes affecting the new technology spread, we model the joint dynamics of three interlinked processes: individual learning and mastering the new technology, changes in individual attitudes towards it, and changes in individual adoption decisions. We assume that the new technology can potentially lead to a higher benefit but achieving it requires learning. We posit that individual decision-making process as well as their attitudes are affected by cognitive dissonance and conformity with peers and an external authority. Individuals vary in different psychological characteristics and in their attitudes. We investigate both transient dynamics and long-term equilibria observed in our model. We show that early adopters are usually individuals who are characterized by low cognitive dissonance and low conformity with peers but are sensitive to the effort of an external authority promoting the innovation. We examine the effectiveness of five different intervention strategies aiming to promote the diffusion of a new technology: training individuals, providing subsidies for early adopters, increasing the visibility of peer actions, simplifying the exchange of opinions between people, and increasing the effort of an external authority. We also discuss the effects of culture on the spread of innovations. Finally, we demonstrate that neglecting the cognitive forces and the dynamic nature of individual attitudes can lead to wrong conclusions about adoption of innovations. Our results can be useful in developing more efficient policies aiming to promote the spread of new technologies in different societies, cultures and countries.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Hydrodynamics of operator spreading and quasiparticle diffusion in interacting integrable systems

In this work, we address the hydrodynamics of operator spreading in interacting integrable lattice models. In these models, operators spread through the ballistic propagation of quasiparticles, with an operator front whose velocity is locally set by the fastest quasiparticle velocity. In interacting integrable systems, this velocity depends on the density of the other quasiparticles, so equilibrium density fluctuations cause the front to follow a biased random walk, and therefore to broaden diffusively. Ballistic front propagation and diffusive front broadening are also generically present in nonintegrable systems in one dimension; thus, although the mechanisms for operator spreading are distinct in the two cases, these coarse-grained measures of the operator front do not distinguish between the two cases. We present an expression for the front-broadening rate; we explicitly derive this for a particular integrable model (the “Floquet-Fredrickson-Andersen” model), and argue on kinetic grounds that it should apply generally. In conclusion, our results elucidate the microscopic mechanism for diffusive corrections to ballistic transport in interacting integrable models.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2022

How the Universe postpones the evaporation and curtails the quantum spreading of black holes

Black holes are expected to evaporate through the process of Hawking radiation. This process is expected to cause the uncertainty in a black hole’s position to grow to ~ $M^4/M^3_{pl}$ over the course of it’s lifetime, even as its momentum spreads only by ~ $M_{Pl}$ For the black holes that have been observed, which have M ≥ M ⊙ this greatly exceeds the Hubble volume. However, the decay of black holes and their quantum spreading, are delayed in the Universe while the influx of energy into the black holes exceeds their Hawking luminosity. We show that for these M ≥ M ⊙ black holes, their decay outside galaxies and clusters is prevented far longer than it takes the black holes to be dragged well beyond the Hubble horizon, where their eventual decay occurs away from the prying eyes of any observer who has not hitched a ride with them. Meanwhile, black holes in an observer’s galaxy or cluster are themselves prevented from decaying long past the extinction of the last stars, and at least until their galaxy/cluster is swept clean of dark matter, in $\gg$ 10 25 y. Even then, if the black holes become unbound, then they are dragged beyond the Hubble radius before undergoing significant decay; if not, they remain in bound orbits, spreading at most over a subvolume of the galaxy/cluster, and long localized by scatterings to much smaller volumes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Universal Spreading of Conditional Mutual Information in Noisy Random Circuits

For this work, we study the evolution of conditional mutual information (CMI) in generic open quantum systems, focusing on one-dimensional random circuits with interspersed local noise. Unlike in noiseless circuits, where CMI spreads linearly while being bounded by the light cone, we find that noisy random circuits with an error rate 𝑝 exhibit superlinear propagation of CMI, which diverges far beyond the light cone at a critical circuit depth 𝑡 𝑐 ∝ 𝑝 −1 . We demonstrate that the underlying mechanism for such rapid spreading is the combined effect of local noise and a scrambling unitary, which selectively removes short-range correlations while preserving long-range correlations. To analytically capture the dynamics of CMI in noisy random circuits, we introduce a coarse-graining method, and we validate our theoretical results through numerical simulations. Furthermore, we identify a universal scaling law governing the spreading of CMI.

decoherence↗

DOE OSTI2015

Compensating tune spread induced by space charge in bunched beams

The effects of space charge play a significant role in modern-day accelerators, frequently constraining the beam parameters attainable in an accelerator or in an accelerator chain. They also can limit the luminosity of hadron colliders operating either at low energies or with sub-TeV high-brightness hadron beams. The latter is applied for strongly cooled proton and ion beams in eRHIC – the proposed future electron-ion collider at Brookhaven National Laboratory. Using an appropriate electron beam would compensate both the tune shift and the tune spread in the hadron beam in a coasting beam. But these methods cannot compensate space charge tune spread in a bunched hadron beam. In this paper we propose and evaluate a novel idea of using a co-propagating electron bunch with mismatched longitudinal velocity to compensate the space charge induced tune-shift and tune spread.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2016

A Multi-agent Simulation Tool for Micro-scale Contagion Spread Studies

Within the disaster preparedness and emergency response community, there is interest in how contagions spread person-to-person at large gatherings and if mitigation strategies can be employed to reduce new infections. A contagion spread simulation module was developed for the Incident Management Preparedness and Coordination Toolkit that allows a user to see how a geographically accurate layout of the gathering space helps or hinders the spread of a contagion. The results can inform mitigation strategies based on changing the physical layout of an event space. A case study was conducted for a particular event to calibrate the underlying simulation model. This paper presents implementation details of the simulation code that incorporates agent movement and disease propagation. Elements of the case study are presented to show how the tool can be used.

Koch, Daniel B↗

DOE OSTI2014

Spread of an introduced parasite across the Hawaiian archipelago independent of its introduced host

1. Co-introductions of non-native parasites with non-native hosts can be a major driver of disease emergence in native species, but the conditions that promote the establishment and spread of nonnative parasites remain poorly understood. Here, we characterise the infection of a native host species by a non-native parasite relative to the distribution and density of the original non-native host species and a suite of organismal and environmental factors that have been associated with parasitism, but not commonly considered within a single system. 2. We examined the native Hawaiian goby Awaous stamineus across 23 catchments on five islands for infection by the non-native nematode parasite Camallanus cotti . We used model selection to test whether parasite infection was associated with the genetic diversity, size and population density of native hosts, the distribution and density of non-native hosts, land use and water quality. 3. We found that the distribution of non-native C. cotti parasites has become decoupled from the non-native hosts that were primary vectors of introduction to the Hawaiian Islands. Although no single intrinsic or extrinsic factor was identified that best explains parasitism of A. stamineus by C. cotti , native host size, population density and water quality were consistently identified as influencing parasite intensity and prevalence. 4. The introduction of non-native species can indirectly influence native species through infection of co-introduced parasites. Here, we show that the effects of enemy addition can extend beyond the range of non-native hosts through the independent spread of non-native parasites. This suggests that control of non-native hosts is not sufficient to halt the spread of introduced parasites. Furthermore, designing importation regulations to prevent host parasite co-introductions can promote native species conservation, even in remote areas that may not seem susceptible to human influence.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

TU-D-209-02: A Backscatter Point Spread Function for Entrance Skin Dose Determination

Purpose: To determine the distribution of backscattered radiation to the skin resulting from a non-uniform distribution of primary radiation through convolution with a backscatter point spread function (PSF). Methods: A backscatter PSF is determined using Monte Carlo simulation of a 1 mm primary beam incident on a 30 × 30 cm × 20 cm thick PMMA phantom using EGSnrc software. A primary profile is similarly obtained without the phantom and the difference from the total provides the backscatter profile. This scatter PSF characterizes the backscatter spread for a “point” primary interaction and can be convolved with the entrance primary dose distribution to obtain the total entrance skin dose. The backscatter PSF was integrated into the skin dose tracking system (DTS), a graphical utility for displaying the color-coded skin dose distribution on a 3D graphic of the patient during interventional fluoroscopic procedures. The backscatter convolution method was validated for the non-uniform beam resulting from the use of an ROI attenuator. The ROI attenuator is a copper sheet with about 20% primary transmission (0.7 mm thick) containing a circular aperture; this attenuator is placed in the beam to reduce dose in the periphery while maintaining full dose in the region of interest. The DTS calculated primary plus backscatter distribution is compared to that measured with GafChromic film and that calculated using EGSnrc Monte-Carlo software. Results: The PSF convolution method used in the DTS software was able to account for the spread of backscatter from the ROI region to the region under the attenuator. The skin dose distribution determined using DTS with the ROI attenuator was in good agreement with the distributions measured with Gafchromic film and determined by Monte Carlo simulation Conclusion: The PSF convolution technique provides an accurate alternative for entrance skin dose determination with non-uniform primary x-ray beams. Partial support from NIH Grant R01-EB002873 and Toshiba Medical Systems Corp.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Sci-Thur AM: YIS – 06: A Monte Carlo study of macro- and microscopic dose descriptors and the microdosimetric spread using detailed cellular models

Purpose: To develop Monte Carlo models of cell clusters to investigate the relationships between macro- and microscopic dose descriptors, quantify the microdosimetric spread in energy deposition for subcellular targets, and determine how these results depend on the computational model. Methods: Microscopic tissue structure is modelled as clusters of 13 to 150 cells, with cell (nuclear) radii between 5 and 10 microns (2 and 9 microns). Energy imparted per unit mass (specific energy or dose) is scored in the nucleus (D{sub nuc}) and cytoplasm (D{sub cyt}) for incident photon energies from 20 to 370 keV. Dose-to-water (D{sub w,m}) and dose-to-medium (D{sub m,m}) are compared to D{sub nuc} and D{sub cyt}. Single cells and single nuclear cavities are also simulated. Results: D{sub nuc} and D{sub cyt} are sensitive to the surrounding environment with deviations of up to 13% for a single nucleus/cell compared with a multicellular cluster. These dose descriptors vary with cell and nucleus size by up to 10%. D{sub nuc} and D{sub cyt} differ from D{sub w,m} and D{sub m,m} by up to 32%. The microdosimetric spread is sensitive to whether cells are arranged randomly or in a hexagonal lattice, and whether subcellular compartment sizes are sampled from a normal distribution or are constant throughout the cluster. Conclusions: D{sub nuc} and D{sub cyt} are sensitive to cell morphology, elemental composition and the presence of surrounding cells. The microdosimetric spread was investigated using realistic elemental compositions for the nucleus and cytoplasm, and depends strongly on subcellular compartment size, source energy and dose.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Chaos, percolation and the coronavirus spread: a two-step model

We discuss a two-step model for the rise and decay of a new coronavirus (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-CoV-2) first reported in December 2019, COVID-19. The first stage is well described by the same equation for turbulent flows, population growth and chaotic maps: a small number of infected, d 0 , grows exponentially to a saturation value, d ∞ . The typical growth time (aggressive spreading of the virus) is given by τ = 1/λ where λ is the Lyapunov exponent. After a time t crit determined by social distancing and/or other measures, the spread decreases exponentially analogous to nuclear decays and non-chaotic maps. Some countries, like China, S. Korea and Italy, are in this second stage while others including the USA are near the end of the growth stage. The model predicted 15,000 (±2250) casualties for the Lombardy region (Italy) at the end of the spreading around May 10, 2020. Without the quarantine, the casualties would have been more than 50,000, one hundred days after the start of the pandemic. Here, the data from the 50 US states are of very poor quality because of an extremely late and confused response to the pandemic, resulting unfortunately in a large number of casualties, more than 70,000 on May 6, 2020, and more than 170,000 on August 21, 2020. S. Korea, notwithstanding the high population density (511/km 2 ) and the closeness to China, responded best to the pandemic with 255 deceased as of May 6, 2020, and 301 on August 21, 2020.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Sources of Intermodel Spread in the Lapse Rate and Water Vapor Feedbacks

Abstract Sources of intermodel differences in the global lapse rate (LR) and water vapor (WV) feedbacks are assessed using CO2 forcing simulations from 28 general circulation models. Tropical surface warming leads to significant warming and moistening in the tropical and extratropical upper troposphere, signifying a nonlocal, tropical influence on extratropical radiation and feedbacks. Model spread in the locally defined LR and WV feedbacks is pronounced in the Southern Ocean because of large-scale ocean upwelling, which reduces surface warming and decouples the surface from the tropospheric response. The magnitude of local extratropical feedbacks across models and over time is well characterized using the ratio of tropical to extratropical surface warming. It is shown that model differences in locally defined LR and WV feedbacks, particularly over the southern extratropics, drive model variability in the global feedbacks. The cross-model correlation between the global LR and WV feedbacks therefore does not arise from their covariation in the tropics, but rather from the pattern of warming exerting a common control on extratropical feedback responses. Because local feedbacks over the Southern Hemisphere are an important contributor to the global feedback, the partitioning of surface warming between the tropics and the southern extratropics is a key determinant of the spread in the global LR and WV feedbacks. It is also shown that model Antarctic sea ice climatology influences sea ice area changes and southern extratropical surface warming. As a result, model discrepancies in climatological Antarctic sea ice area have a significant impact on the intermodel spread of the global LR and WV feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Large-Eddy Simulation Study in WRF on Wind over Broadband Waves of Different Directions and Spreading Widths

We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with moving waves to conduct large-eddy simulations (LESs) of wind over broadband waves with different propagating directions and spreading widths. Our results show that wind-opposing waves can double the form drag, and the wave propagating direction affects the mean wind velocity, velocity variances, and pressure stress. On the other hand, waves with wider spread tend to reduce the form drag in the streamwise direction. Results further indicate that the wave direction can impact the bulk drag coefficient by as much as 25%, while the wave directional spreading width can change it by 5%. Based on our wave-phase-resolved simulations, we demonstrate that the parameterization of sea surface roughness is significantly influenced by the direction of wave propagation relative to the wind, a factor that the commonly used Charnock relation does not account for.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Calibration verification for stochastic agent-based disease spread models

Accurate disease spread modeling is crucial for identifying the severity of outbreaks and planning effective mitigation efforts. To be reliable when applied to new outbreaks, model calibration techniques must be robust. However, current methods frequently forgo calibration verification (a stand-alone process evaluating the calibration procedure) and instead use overall model validation (a process comparing calibrated model results to data) to check calibration processes, which may conceal errors in calibration. In this work, we develop a stochastic agent-based disease spread model to act as a testing environment as we test two calibration methods using simulation-based calibration, which is a synthetic data calibration verification method. The first calibration method is a Bayesian inference approach using an empirically-constructed likelihood and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, while the second method is a likelihood-free approach using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Simulation-based calibration suggests that there are challenges with the empirical likelihood calculation used in the first calibration method in this context. These issues are alleviated in the ABC approach. Despite these challenges, we note that the first calibration method performs well in a synthetic data model validation test similar to those common in disease spread modeling literature. We conclude that stand-alone calibration verification using synthetic data may benefit epidemiological researchers in identifying model calibration challenges that may be difficult to identify with other commonly used model validation techniques.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗