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At least 217 records · Page 12

Solar Cycle 24 Behavior and Progress on FISM Version 2 Product

Solar cycle 24 has continued to increase in activity towards its peak expected in late 2013. The updated NOAA/SWPC solar cycle prediction as well as the outlook for solar activity during the MAVEN 1-Earth-year mission will be presented. Also presented will be a status updated on the progress of the Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) version 2 product, which will be a deliverable for the MAVEN mission as it will provide the full solar spectrum from 0.1-190 nm at 0.1 nm spectral resolution and 1-minute temporal resolution based on the three EUV diodes from the MAVEN LPW JEUV instrument.

Chamberlin, Phillip C.↗

A review of quasi-periodic oscillations in low-mass X-ray binaries

A review of the quasi-periodic oscillations (QPO) observed in the X-ray flux of low-mass X-ray binaries is presented. In Section 1 a general background is given on galactic populations of accretion-driven X-ray sources. Section 2 contains a description of the methods that have been used to analyze these QPO. In Section 3 the QPO observations are described in some detail. Models for the QPO are considered in Section 4. In Section 5 the time lags observed between QPO at different photon energies and their possible implications for X-ray spectral models are discussed. Conclusions are summarized in Section 6.

Lewin, Walter H. G.↗

Satellite estimation of incident photosynthetically active radiation using ultraviolet reflectance

A new satellite remote sensing method for estimating the amount of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR, 400-700 nm) incident at the earth's surface is described and tested. Potential incident PAR for clear sky conditions is computed from an existing spectral model. A major advantage of the UV approach over existing visible band approaches to estimating insolation is the improved ability to discriminate clouds from high-albedo background surfaces. UV spectral reflectance data from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) were used to test the approach for three climatically distinct, midlatitude locations. Estimates of monthly total incident PAR from the satellite technique differed from values computed from ground-based pyranometer measurements by less than 6 percent. This UV remote sensing method can be applied to estimate PAR insolation over ocean and land surfaces which are free of ice and snow.

Eck, Thomas F.↗

Physical initialization using SSM/I rain rates

Following our recent study on physical initialization for tropical prediction using rain rates based on outgoing long-wave radiation, the present study demonstrates a major improvement from the use of microwave radiance-based rain rates. A rain rate algorithm is used on the data from a special sensor microwave instrument (SSM/I). The initialization, as before, uses a reverse surface similarity theory, a reverse cumulus parameterization algorithm, and a bisection method to minimize the difference between satellite-based and the model-based outgoing long-wave radiation. These are invoked within a preforecast Newtonian relaxation phase of the initialization. These tests are carried out with a high-resolution global spectral model. The impact of the initialization on forecast is tested for a complex triple typhoon scenario over the Western Pacific Ocean during September 1987. A major impact from the inclusion of the SSM/I is demonstrated. Also addressed are the spin-up issues related to the typhoon structure and the improved water budget from the physical initialization.

Krishnamurti, T. N.↗

Mesospheric Non-Migrating Tides Generated With Planetary Waves: II Influence of Gravity Waves

We demonstrated that, in our model, non-linear interactions between planetary waves (PW) and migrating tides could generate in the upper mesosphere non-migrating tides with amplitudes comparable to those observed. The Numerical Spectral Model (NSM) we employ incorporates Hines Doppler Spread Parameterization for small-scale gravity waves (GW), which affect in numerous ways the dynamics of the mesosphere. The latitudinal (seasonal) reversals in the temperature and zonal circulation, which are largely caused by GWs (Lindzen, 198l), filter the PWs and contribute to the instabilities that generate the PWs. The PWs in turn are amplified by the momentum deposition of upward propagating GWs, as are the migrating tides. The GWs thus affect significantly the migrating tides and PWs, the building blocks of non-migrating tides. In the present paper, we demonstrate that GW filtering also contributes to the non-linear coupling between PWs and tides. Two computer experiments are presented to make this point. In one, we simply turn off the GW source to show the effect. In the second case, we demonstrate the effect by selectively suppressing the momentum source for the m = 0 non-migrating tides.

Mayr, H. G.↗

The effect of small-wave modulation on the electromagnetic bias

The effect of the modulation of small ocean waves by large waves on the physical mechanism of the EM bias is examined by conducting a numerical scattering experiment which does not assume the applicability of geometric optics. The modulation effect of the large waves on the small waves is modeled using the principle of conservation of wave action and includes the modulation of gravity-capillary waves. The frequency dependence and magnitude of the EM bias is examined for a simplified ocean spectral model as a function of wind speed. These calculations make it possible to assess the validity of previous assumptions made in the theory of the EM bias, with respect to both scattering and hydrodynamic effects. It is found that the geometric optics approximation is inadequate for predictions of the EM bias at typical radar altimeter frequencies, while the improved scattering calculations provide a frequency dependence of the EM bias which is in qualitative agreement with observation. For typical wind speeds, the EM bias contribution due to small-wave modulation is of the same order as that due to modulation by the nonlinearities of the large-scale waves.

Rodriguez, Ernesto↗

The Significance of Water Vapor Isotopes in Improving Weather Prediction

Water vapor isotopes carry the integrated history of evaporation, condensation, mixing, and transport. Although previous studies have shown potential to improve forecasts under controlled conditions, real-world applications have been limited by systematic biases in both models and satellite retrievals arising from sparse measurements in the free troposphere. Here we assimilate mid‑tropospheric δD retrievals (peak sensitivity ~4.2 km) from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer into the Isotope‑incorporated Global Spectral Model and evaluate the added value beyond co‑assimilated temperature and specific humidity with identical spatial and temporal coverage. Assimilating δD improves 0–120 h forecasts of wind, temperature, specific humidity, and geopotential height, with the largest gains in the midlatitudes; heavy‑precipitation skill also increases for thresholds >3 mm per 6 h. Demonstrated in a coarse‑resolution configuration with limited observations, the results indicate that isotopic information strengthens transport tracking and hydrological constraints, motivating evaluation in operational high‑resolution forecasting systems.

Hydrology↗

Chemical Source Inversion using Assimilated Constituent Observations in an Idealized Two-dimensional System

We present a source inversion technique for chemical constituents that uses assimilated constituent observations rather than directly using the observations. The method is tested with a simple model problem, which is a two-dimensional Fourier-Galerkin transport model combined with a Kalman filter for data assimilation. Inversion is carried out using a Green's function method and observations are simulated from a true state with added Gaussian noise. The forecast state uses the same spectral spectral model, but differs by an unbiased Gaussian model error, and emissions models with constant errors. The numerical experiments employ both simulated in situ and satellite observation networks. Source inversion was carried out by either direct use of synthetically generated observations with added noise, or by first assimilating the observations and using the analyses to extract observations. We have conducted 20 identical twin experiments for each set of source and observation configurations, and find that in the limiting cases of a very few localized observations, or an extremely large observation network there is little advantage to carrying out assimilation first. However, in intermediate observation densities, there decreases in source inversion error standard deviation using the Kalman filter algorithm followed by Green's function inversion by 50% to 95%.

Tangborn, Andrew↗

X-ray spectral and timing evolution of MAXI J1727-203 with NICER

We present a detailed X-ray spectral and variability study of the full 2018 outburst of MAXI J1727–203 using NICER observations. The outburst lasted approximately four months. Spectral modelling in the 0.3–10 keV band shows the presence of both a soft thermal and a hard Comptonised component. The analysis of these components shows that MAXI J1727–203 evolved through the soft, intermediate, and hard spectral states during the outburst. We find that the soft (disc) component was detected throughout almost the entire outburst, with temperatures ranging from ∼0.4 keV, at the moment of maximum luminosity, to ∼0.1 keV near the end of the outburst. The power spectrum in the hard and intermediate states shows broad-band noise up to 20 Hz, with no evidence of quasi-periodic oscillations. We also study the rms spectra of the broad-band noise at 0.3−10 keV of this source. We find that the fractional rms increases with energy in most of the outburst except during the hard state, where the fractional rms remains approximately constant with energy. We also find that, below 3 keV, the fractional rms follows the same trend generally observed at energies >3 keV, a behaviour known from previous studies of black holes and neutron stars. The spectral and timing evolution of MAXI J1727–203, as parametrised by the hardness–intensity, hardness–rms, and rms–intensity diagrams, suggest that the system hosts a black hole, although we could not rule out a neutron star.

K Jativa↗

A Stochastic Fractional Dynamics Model of Space-time Variability of Rain

Rainfall varies in space and time in a highly irregular manner and is described naturally in terms of a stochastic process. A characteristic feature of rainfall statistics is that they depend strongly on the space-time scales over which rain data are averaged. A spectral model of precipitation has been developed based on a stochastic differential equation of fractional order for the point rain rate, that allows a concise description of the second moment statistics of rain at any prescribed space-time averaging scale. The model is thus capable of providing a unified description of the statistics of both radar and rain gauge data. The underlying dynamical equation can be expressed in terms of space-time derivatives of fractional orders that are adjusted together with other model parameters to fit the data. The form of the resulting spectrum gives the model adequate flexibility to capture the subtle interplay between the spatial and temporal scales of variability of rain but strongly constrains the predicted statistical behavior as a function of the averaging length and times scales. We test the model with radar and gauge data collected contemporaneously at the NASA TRMM ground validation sites located near Melbourne, Florida and in Kwajalein Atoll, Marshall Islands in the tropical Pacific. We estimate the parameters by tuning them to the second moment statistics of radar data. The model predictions are then found to fit the second moment statistics of the gauge data reasonably well without any further adjustment.

TRMM↗

The impact of greenhouse climate change on the energetics and hydrologic processes of mid-latitude transient eddies

Atmospheric transient eddies contribute significantly to mid-latitude energy and water vapor transports. Changes in the global climate, as induced by greenhouse enhancement, will likely alter transient eddy behavior. Unraveling all the feedbacks that occur in general circulation models (GCMs) can be difficult. The transient eddies are isolated from the feedbacks and are focused on the response of the eddies to zonal-mean climate changes that result from CO2-doubling. Using a primitive-equation spectral model, the impact of climate change on the life cycles of transient eddies is examined. Transient eddy behavior in experiments is compared with initial conditions that are given by the zonal-mean climates of the GCMs with current and doubled amounts of CO2. The smaller meridional temperature gradient in a doubled CO2 climate leads to a reduction in eddy kinetic energy, especially in the subtropics. The decrease in subtropical eddy energy is related to a substantial reduction in equatorward flux of eddy activity during the latter part of the life cycle. The reduction in equatorward energy flux alters the moisture cycle. Eddy meridional transport of water vapor is shifted slightly poleward and subtropical precipitation is reduced. The water vapor transport exhibits a relatively small change in magnitude, compared to changes in eddy energy, due to the compensating effect of higher specific humidity in the doubled-CO2 climate. An increase in high-latitude precipitation is related to the poleward shift in eddy water vapor flux. Surface evaporation amplifies climatic changes in water vapor transport and precipitation in the experiments.

Branscome, Lee E.↗

The effects of rotation on initially anisotropic homogeneous flows

Rotation of initially anisotropic homogeneous flows is studied using a model spectral tensor. It is shown that the anisotropy changes because of the influence of rotation through phase scrambling. Phase scrambling causes the Reynolds stresses to develop with damped oscillations. The final Reynolds stress anisotropy is found to be proportional to the initial structural tensor anisotropy. Closure models for the rapid pressure strain terms should reflect this change in anisotropy, and should drive the anisotropy to reach its final predicted state. Finally, it is shown that long-time integration using direct numerical simulations should be treated with care because phase scrambling effects on a discrete wave space can cause loss of resolution when time becomes large.

Mansour, Nagi N.↗

Modeling the Diurnal Tides in the MLT Region with the Doppler Spread Parameterization of Gravity Waves

Special Session: SA03 The mesosphere/lower thermosphere region: Structure, dynamics, composition, and emission. Ground based and satellite observations in the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) reveal large seasonal variations in the horizontal wind fields of the diurnal and semidiurnal tides. To provide an understanding of the observations, we discuss results obtained with our Numerical Spectral Model (NMS) that incorporates the gravity wave Doppler Spread Parameterization (DSP) of Hines. Our model reproduces many of the salient features observed, and we discuss numerical experiments that delineate the important processes involved. Gravity wave momentum deposition and the seasonal variations in the tidal excitation contribute primarily to produce the large equinoctial amplitude maxima in the diurnal tide. Gravity wave induced variations in eddy viscosity, not accounted for in the model, have been shown by Akmaev to be important too. For the semidiurnal tide, with amplitude maximum observed during winter solstice, these processes also contribute, but filtering by the mean zonal circulation is more important. A deficiency of our model is that it cannot reproduce the observed seasonal variations in the phase of the semidiurnal tide, and numerical experiments are being carried out to diagnose the cause and to alleviate this problem. The dynamical components of the upper mesosphere are tightly coupled through non-linear processes and wave filtering, and this may constrain the model and require it to reproduce in detail the observed phenomenology.

Mayr, H. G.↗

Characterizing Young Giant Planets with the Gemini Planet Imager: An Iterative Approach to Planet Characterization

After discovery, the first task of exoplanet science is characterization. However experience has shown that the limited spectral range and resolution of most directly imaged exoplanet data requires an iterative approach to spectral modeling. Simple, brown dwarf-like models, must first be tested to ascertain if they are both adequate to reproduce the available data and consistent with additional constraints, including the age of the system and available limits on the planet's mass and luminosity, if any. When agreement is lacking, progressively more complex solutions must be considered, including non-solar composition, partial cloudiness, and disequilibrium chemistry. Such additional complexity must be balanced against an understanding of the limitations of the atmospheric models themselves. For example while great strides have been made in improving the opacities of important molecules, particularly NH3 and CH4, at high temperatures, much more work is needed to understand the opacity of atomic Na and K. The highly pressure broadened fundamental band of Na and K in the optical stretches into the near-infrared, strongly influencing the spectral shape of Y and J spectral bands. Discerning gravity and atmospheric composition is difficult, if not impossible, without both good atomic opacities as well as an excellent understanding of the relevant atmospheric chemistry. I will present examples of the iterative process of directly imaged exoplanet characterization as applied to both known and potentially newly discovered exoplanets with a focus on constraints provided by GPI spectra. If a new GPI planet is lacking, as a case study I will discuss HR 8799 c and d will explain why some solutions, such as spatially inhomogeneous cloudiness, introduce their own additional layers of complexity. If spectra of new planets from GPI are available I will explain the modeling process in the context of understanding these new worlds.

exoplanets↗

The NuSTAR View of the Non-Thermal Emission from PSR J0437-4715

We present a hard X-ray Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array (NuSTAR) observation of PSR J0437-4715, the nearest millisecond pulsar. The known pulsations at the apparent pulse period approximately 5.76 ms are observed with a significance of 3.7sigma, at energies up to 20 keV above which the NuSTAR background dominates. We measure a photon index gamma = 1.50 +/- 0.25(90 per cent confidence) for the power-law fit to the non-thermal emission. It had been shown that spectral models with two or three thermal components fit the XMM-Newton spectrum of PSR J0437-4715, depending on the slope of the power-law component, and the amount of absorption of soft X-rays. The new constraint on the high-energy emission provided by NuSTAR removes ambiguities regarding the thermal components of the emission below 3 keV. We performed a simultaneous spectral analysis of the XMM-Newton and NuSTAR data to confirm that three thermal components and a power law are required to fit the 0.3-20 keV emission of PSR J0437-4715. Adding a ROSAT-PSPC spectrum further confirmed this result and allowed us to better constrain the temperatures of the three thermal components. A phase resolved analysis of the NuSTAR data revealed no significant change in the photon index of the high-energy emission. This NuSTAR observation provides further impetus for future observations with the NICER mission (Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer) whose sensitivity will provide much stricter constraints on the equation of state of nuclear matter by combining model fits to the pulsars phase-folded light curve with the pulsars well-defined mass and distance from radio timing observations.

stars; neutro↗

Measurements of Cyclotron Features and Pulse Periods in the High-Mass X-Ray Binaries 4U 1538-522 and 4U 1907+09 with the International Gamma-Ray Astrophysics Laboratory

We present a spectral and timing analysis of International Gamma-Ray Astrophysics Laboratory (INTEGRAL) observations of two high-mass X-ray binaries, 4U 1538−522 and 4U 1907+09. Our timing measurements for 4U 1538−522 find the pulse period to have exhibited a spin-up trend until approximately 2009, after which there is evidence for a torque reversal, with the source beginning to spin down to the most recently measured period of 525.407 plus or minus 0.001 seconds. The most recent INTEGRAL observations of 4U 1907+09 are not found to yield statistically significant pulse periods due to the significantly lower flux from the source compared with 4U 1538−522. A spectral model consisting of a power-law continuum with an exponential cutoff and modified by two cyclotron resonance scattering features is found to fit both sources well, with the cyclotron scattering features detected at approximately 22 and approximately 49 kiloelectronvolts for 4U 1538−522 and at approximately 18 and approximately 36 kiloelectronvolts for 4U 1907+09. The spectral parameters of 4U 1538−522 are generally not found to vary significantly with flux and there is little to no variation across the torque reversal. Examining our results in conjunction with previous work, we find no evidence for a correlation between cyclotron line energy and luminosity for 4U 1538−522. 4U 1907+09 shows evidence for a positive correlation between cyclotron line energy and luminosity, which would make it the fourth, and lowest luminosity, cyclotron line source to exhibit this relationship.

stars: magnetic field↗

Investigation of the CARS spectrum of water vapor

The dependence of the coherent anti-Stokes Raman (CARS) spectrum of water vapor on temperature has been measured and compared with CARS spectral model calculations to permit diagnostics of this important combustion product. Measurements have been made in a methane-air flame at 1700 K and in a heated cell, maintained at atmospheric pressure and temperatures between 310 K and 710 K. The agreement between measured and calculated spectra is very good. The importance of assumed Raman linewidth is shown to be critical to the calculation of spectral features near the band head of measured spectra.

Shirley, J. A.↗