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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1986

Solar particle event predictions for manned Mars missions

Manned space missions to Mars require consideration of the effects of high radiation doses produced by solar particle events (SPE). Without some provision for protection, the radiation doses from such events can exceed standards for maximum exposure and may be life threatening. Several alternative ways of providing protection require a capability for predicting SPE in time to take some protective actions. The SPE may occur at any time during the eleven year solar cycle so that two year missions cannot be scheduled to insure avoiding them although they are less likely to occur at solar minimum. The present forecasts are sufficiently accurate to use for setting alert modes but are not accurate enough to make yes/no decisions that have major mission operational impacts. Forecasts made for one to two year periods can only be done as probabilistic forecasts where there is a chance of SPE occurring. These are current capabilities but are not likely to change significantly by the year 2000 with the exception of some improvement in the one to ten day forecasts. The effects of SPE are concentrated in solar longitudes near where their parent solar flares occur, which will require a manned Mars mission to carry its own small solar telescope to monitor the development of potentially dangerous solar activity. The preferred telescope complement includes a solar X-ray imager, a hydrogen-alpha scanner, and a solar magnetograph.

Heckman, Gary↗
NASA NTRS1982

Comparison of theoretically predicted and observed Solar Maximum Mission X-ray spectra for the 1980 April 13 and May 9 flares

A method for predicting the hard X-ray spectrum in the 10-100 keV range for compact flares during their initial rise is developed on the basis of a thermal model. Observations of the flares of 1980 April 13, 4:05 U.T., and 1980 May 9, 7:12 U.T. are given and their combined spectra from the Hard X-ray Burst Spectrometer and Hard X-ray Imaging Spectrometer on the Solar Maximum Mission are deduced. Constraints on the cross sectional area of the supposed emitting arch are obtained from data from the Hard X-ray Imaging Spectrometer. A power-law spectrum is predicted for the rise of the flare of April 13 for initial arch densities less than 10 to the 10th per cu cm and also for the flare of May 9 for initial arch densities less than 5.4 x 10 to the 10th per cu cm. In both cases power-law spectra are observed. Limitations and implications of these results are discussed.

Smith, D. F.↗
NASA NTRS2018

An Early Prediction of the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25

A “Solar Dynamo” (SODA) Index prediction of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 is described. The SODA Index combines values of the solar polar magnetic field and the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm to create a precursor of future solar activity. The result is an envelope of solar activity that minimizes the 11-year period of the sunspot cycle. We show that the variation in time of the SODA Index is similar to several wavelet transforms of the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm. Polar field predictions for Solar Cycles 21 – 24 are used to show the success of the polar field precursor in previous sunspot cycles. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle’s smoothed peak activity will be about 140 ± 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a Version 2 sunspot number of 135 ± 25. This suggests that Solar Cycle 25 will be comparable to Solar Cycle 24. The estimated peak is expected to occur near 2025.2 ± 1.5 year. Because the current approach uses data prior to solar minimum, these estimates may improve as the upcoming solar minimum draws closer.

Solar Cycle Predictions↗
NASA NTRS1991

Plasma diagnostic capabilities of the Soft X-ray Telescope on Solar-A

The predicted response of the Solar-A Soft X-ray Telescope (SXT) to various solar targets is presented. It is found that the SXT is very sensitive and should be able to observe active regions and flares at its nominal cadence with exposure times ranging from 0.0001 to 1 s. The SXT temperature diagnostic capabilities are presented for various combinations of the X-ray filters.

Strong, K. T.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Solar wind model predictions for the sources of streams observed at 1 AU - Coronal enhancements or coronal holes

The present paper discusses attempts which have been made to locate the solar sources of the solar wind streams observed at or near 1 AU. Solar-wind data collected by the Mariner 2, Mariner 5, and IMP-1 spacecraft are considered. It is concluded that the type of solar feature considered as the source of solar-wind velocity enhancements depends upon the solar-wind model used. All single-fluid models predict the source to have a significantly higher temperature and lower density than the surrounding region, while the two-fluid model predicts a change in temperature that is much smaller than the predicted change in density.

Jones, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS1978

A life prediction methodology for encapsulated solar cells

This paper presents an approach to the development of a life prediction methodology for encapsulated solar cells which are intended to operate for twenty years or more in a terrestrial environment. Such a methodology, or solar cell life prediction model, requires the development of quantitative intermediate relationships between local environmental stress parameters and the basic chemical mechanisms of encapsulant aging leading to solar cell failures. The use of accelerated/abbreviated testing to develop these intermediate relationships and in revealing failure modes is discussed. Current field and demonstration tests of solar cell arrays and the present laboratory tests to qualify solar module designs provide very little data applicable to predicting the long-term performance of encapsulated solar cells. An approach to enhancing the value of such field tests to provide data for life prediction is described.

Coulbert, C. D.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Manned Mars mission solar physics: Solar energetic particle prediction and warning

There are specific risks to the crew of the manned Mars mission from energetic particles generated by solar activity. Therefore, mission planning must provide for solar monitoring and solar activity forecasts. The main need is to be able to anticipate the energetic particle events associated with some solar flares and, occasionally, with erupting filaments. A second need may be for forecasts of solar interference with radio communication between the manned Mars mission (during any of its three phases) and Earth. These two tasks are compatible with a small solar observatory that would be used during the transit and orbital phases of the mission. Images of the Sun would be made several times per hour and, together with a solar X-ray detector, used to monitor for the occurrence of solar activity. The data would also provide a basis for research studies of the interplanetary medium utilizing observations covering more of the surface of the Sun than just the portion facing Earth.

Suess, S. T.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Solar Cycle 25 Model Prediction Comparisons: an Engineering Perspective

The solar cycle 25 progression is ramping up, prompting satellite operators to provide estimates of propellent usage over the next several years. Drag due to atmospheric heating from solar activity is the main driver to satellite lifetime decay, especially for those in low-Earth orbit destinations. In this poster, several model predictions of the sunspot number are compared and discussed with comments on applicability to engineering programs.

Space Weather↗
NASA NTRS1987

A 3-D computational model for solar wind/magnetosphere interactions - Prediction of polar flattening of Jupiter and Saturn magnetospheres

The development of a computational model for determining the solution of the gasdynamic portion of the gasdynamic convected magnetic field model for solar wind flow past three-dimensional magnetoionopauses of nonaxisymmetric shape is described. Results are presented for the shape of the bow wave and the flow properties in magnetosheaths of polar flattened magnetopauses representative of Jupiter and Saturn. Through a parametric study in which the amount of polar flattening is varied, a quantitative determination is obtained of the degree of flattening at both Jupiter and Saturn. These new three-dimensional results are shown to be in good agreement with observations, and account for most of the differences between the observations and the axisymmetric model results.

Stahara, S. S.↗
DOE OSTI2026

VRN3P: Variational Recurrent Neural Network Based Net-Load Prediction under High Solar Penetration

This is the final technical report for the SETO-funded VRN3P project (PNNL# 76914). The goal of this project, led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), in collaboration with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Portland General Electric (PGE), was to develop and validate a deep variational recurrent neural network-based net-load prediction (VRN3P) framework for probabilistic time-series forecasting of day-ahead net-load under high solar penetration scenarios. The project team reports successful design of a novel probabilistic net-load forecasting architecture, comprising of a variational autoencoder and a recurrent neural network, which demonstrates 30% improvement in forecast performance, 60% improvement in training time, and consumes 44% less memory, when compared with conventional baseline models. The team tested the VRN3P model performance on GridLAB-D test-cases representing varying BTM solar penetration levels of 20%, 30%, and 50%, with integrated time-series net-load profiles provided by the utility partner (PGE). The VRN3P model demonstrate <2% hourly MAPE (averaged over the year) for day- ahead net-load forecast on the test scenario with 20% BTM solar. Transfer learning extension of the VRN3P model has demonstrated 8.33× speed-up in training, while still achieving acceptable forecast performance of 2.24% hourly MAPE on the 30% BTM solar penetration test-scenario. A preliminary version of the VRN3P GridAPPS-D™has been developed, along with a web-based interactive user-interface (named ‘Forte’) which has made available on GitHub for public use.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1974

Trapped particle and solar proton radiation prediction for ISEE (IME): Mother-daughter mission

The charged particle fluxes incident on spacecrafts in very eccentric orbits were investigated in support of the International Sun-Earth Explorer (International Magnetospheric Explorer) For this purpose, two flightpaths were considered having identical inclinations but different perigee altitudes (240 and 1364 kilometers, respectively). Apogee altitude was approximately the same for both cases (about 22 earth radii). For each of the two perigee altitudes investigated, two nominal trajectories were generated, having identical orbital configurations but with their major axes rotated by 180 deg in the plane of orbit, which resulted in placing the initial apogee into into opposite hemispheres. This was done in order to determine the corresponding variation in the vehicle-encountered particle intensities. Estimates of average energetic solar proton fluxes are given for a one year mission duration at selected integranlenergies ranging from E 10 to E 100 MeV. Results are summarized and discussed.

Stassinopoulos, E. G.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Using the Inflection Points and Rates of Growth and Decay to Predict Levels of Solar Activity

The ascending and descending inflection points and rates of growth and decay at specific times during the sunspot cycle are examined as predictors for future activity. On average, the ascending inflection point occurs about 1-2 yr after sunspot minimum amplitude (Rm) and the descending inflection point occurs about 6-7 yr after Rm. The ascending inflection point and the inferred slope (including the 12-mo moving average (12-mma) of (Delta)R (the month-to-month change in the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number (R)) at the ascending inflection point provide strong indications as to the expected size of the ongoing cycle s sunspot maximum amplitude (RM), while the descending inflection point appears to provide an indication as to the expected length of the ongoing cycle. The value of the 12-mma of (Delta)R at elapsed time T = 27 mo past the epoch of RM (E(RM)) seems to provide a strong indication as to the expected size of Rm for the following cycle. The expected Rm for cycle 24 is 7.6 +/- 4.4 (the 90-percent prediction interval), occurring before September 2008. Evidence is also presented for secular rises in selected cycle-related parameters and for preferential grouping of sunspot cycles by amplitude and/or period.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Posterior Regularized Bayesian Neural Network incorporating soft and hard knowledge constraints

Neural Networks (NNs) have been widely used in supervised learning due to their ability to model complex nonlinear patterns, often presented in high-dimensional data such as images and text. However, traditional NNs often lack the ability for uncertainty quantification. Bayesian NNs (BNNS) could help measure the uncertainty by considering the distributions of the NN model parameters. Besides, domain knowledge is commonly available and could improve the performance of BNNs if it can be appropriately incorporated. In this work, we propose a novel Posterior-Regularized Bayesian Neural Network (PR-BNN) model by incorporating different types of knowledge constraints, such as the soft and hard constraints, as a posterior regularization term. Furthermore, we propose to combine the augmented Lagrangian method and the existing BNN solvers for efficient inference. Furthermore, the experiments in simulation and two case studies about aviation landing prediction and solar energy output prediction have shown the knowledge constraints and the performance improvement of the proposed model over traditional BNNs without the constraints.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1983

Satellite drag prediction effects on Shuttle mission planning

Long-term factors, along with Shuttle performance limitations, are considered in order to illustrate the need for more reliable long-term drag (meaning 'solar cycle') prediction techniques. Such techniques would make it possible to confidently plan dual-objective Shuttle flights, which maximize Shuttle cargo loadings and thus reduce costs. In describing the coupled mission concept, it is pointed out that by deploying one payload while retrieving or servicing another, the Space Transportation System can maximize the usefulness of the Shuttle and reduce the cost per customer. It is shown here that the proposed mission coupling LDEF (Long Duration Exposure Facility) with ST (Space Telescope) must be rejected since the Shuttle performance limitations prohibit deployment of the ST at even 315 n mi with a subsequent LDEF retrieval. If, however, it were possible to predict solar cycles, then, depending on the prediction, a mission of this type could be feasible.

Young, K. A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Constraints on flavor-diagonal non-standard neutrino interactions from Borexino Phase-II

The Borexino detector measures solar neutrino fluxes via neutrino-electron elastic scattering. Observed spectra are determined by the solar-$\nu_{e}$ survival probability $P_{ee}(E)$, and the chiral couplings of the neutrino and electron. Some theories of physics beyond the Standard Model postulate the existence of Non-Standard Interactions (NSI's) which modify the chiral couplings and $P_{ee}(E)$. In this paper, we search for such NSI's, in particularly neutral-current-like interactions that modify the $\nu_e - e$ and $\nu_\tau - e$ couplings, using Borexino Phase II data. Standard Solar Model predictions of the solar neutrino fluxes for both high- and low-metallicity assumptions are considered. No indication of new physics is found at the level of sensitivity of the detector and constraints on the parameters of the NSI's are placed. In addition, with the same dataset the value of $\sin^2\theta_W$ is obtained with a precision comparable to that achieved in reactor antineutrino experiments.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Efficient prediction of concentrating solar power plant productivity using data clustering

Concentrating solar power (CSP) plants convert solar energy to electricity and can be deployed with a thermal storage capability to shift electricity generation from time periods with available solar resource to those with high electricity demand or electricity price. Rigorous optimization of plant design and operational strategies can improve the market-competitiveness and commercial viability; however, such optimization may require hundreds of annual performance simulations, each of which can be computationally expensive when including considerations such as optimization of dispatch scheduling, sub-hourly time resolution, and stochastic effects due to uncertain weather or electricity price forecasts. This paper proposes a methodology to reduce the computational burden associated with simulation of electricity yield and revenue for CSP plants over a single- or multi-year period. Data-clustering techniques are employed to select a small number of limited-duration time blocks for simulation that, when appropriately weighted, can reproduce generation and revenue over a single year or within each year of a multi-year period. After selection of appropriate data features and weighting factors defining similarity between time-series profiles, the methodology captured annual revenue within 2.3%, 1.7%, or 1.2% using simulation of 10, 30, or 50 three-day exemplar time blocks, respectively, for each of three single-year location/weather/market scenarios and five plant configurations ranging from low to high solar multiple and storage capacity. When applied to multi-year datasets, the proposed methodology can capture inter-year variability that is unavailable from typical meteorological year (TMY) datasets while simultaneously requiring simulation of less than a single year of data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗