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DOE OSTI2024

A Perspective on Scalable AI on High-Performance Computing and Leadership Class Supercomputing Facilities [Industrial and Governmental Activities]

Many scientific applications that support the mission of the US Department of Energy (US-DoE) require modeling complex engineering and/or physical systems. Here, examples of such complex systems arise from: (a) materials science to develop new compounds with exceptional mechanical and thermodynamical properties (e.g., resistance to mechanical stresses and high temperatures), (b) structural and nuclear engineering to model the temporal evolution of the structural damage of concrete shields exposed to continuous neutron and gamma radiations emitted by the nuclear reactor core, (c) urban sciences (e.g., transportation and smart buildings), and (d) power grid systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Electric Vehicles at Scale (EVs@Scale) Laboratory Consortium Deep-Dive Technical Meetings: High Power Charging (HPC) Summary Report

Electric vehicle (EV) adoption will change the composition of EV charging load to higher-power charging as more medium- (MD) and heavy-duty (HD) applications are electrified, and as all vocations, including light-duty (LD) vehicles, are capable of faster charging. These shifts provide the opportunity for high-power charging (HPC) and facility equipment to evolve and improve efficiency, cost, and space. High-Power Electric Vehicle Charging Hub Integration Platform (eCHIP) project designs and develops a high-power, interoperable charging experimental platform to research, develop, and demonstrate the integration approaches and technology solutions. The project addresses (1) interconnection and management of a grid-tied inverter; (2) development of a DC distribution system that is responsible for system energy management, interoperability, and DC protection; (3) modular DC/DC conversion for vehicle charging; (4) EV charging interface and DC/DC integration; and (5) smart charge control and vehicle-to-edge (vehicle-to-building [V2B], vehicle-to-everything [V2X]) capability. This summary presentation is the first technical progress output of the project. It provides insight for the first deep-dive technical meeting outputs in terms of research presentations and also includes summary of the discussions occurred in the follow-up breakout sessions. The summary presentation covers three technical areas: (1) HPC: State of the art power architectures and the design of the power electronics, (2) Modeling, energy management, and power control in the HPC station, and (3) Next Generation Profiles for high power charging characterization.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of the Turbine Integrated Mortality Reduction (TIMR SM ) Technology as a Smart Curtailment Approach (Final Summary Report)

Wind energy is a crucial technology for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. However, the growth and deployment of wind energy in North America have led to the deaths of many bat species due to operating wind turbines. Hundreds of thousands of bats are estimated to die at wind turbines annually in North America. Operational minimization, which includes feathering turbine blades and curtailment, has been documented to reduce bat fatality effectively. Curtailment refers to altering turbine operation based on wind speed, time of year, temperature, sensors, and activity models. However, when turbines are curtailed, they do not generate power, resulting in energy loss and revenue for wind energy facilities. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) funded the development of Turbine Integrated Mortality Reduction (TIM SM ) Technology, which curtails turbine operation when bats are detected. The initial TIMR system research showed promising results, with an 85% reduction in overall bat fatalities and a 91% reduction for the little brown bat. However, these results were based on a single site during one fall season, and it was unclear if similar results could be replicated at other wind energy facilities. This research aimed to validate the TIMR system results from the prior field study at a second site in the U.S., estimate the power production and reduction in bat mortality at turbines with installed TIMR systems relative to blanket curtailment and fully operational turbines, test the TIMR system in two calendar years and during the summer and fall periods, and evaluate the operational and commercial characteristics of the TIMR system for potential wind industry adoption. The study was conducted at a 500.9-MW wind energy facility in southeast Adair County, Iowa. Three experimental treatments were involved in this randomized block design study: TIMR, Curtailment at 5.0 m/s, and Normal Operation. In 2021, three treatments were used at 18 turbines, expanding to four treatments across 36 turbines in 2022. The TIMR system worked as designed throughout the entire study; however, because of unexpected wind turbine operational challenges in 2021, there was not sufficient sample size to evaluate the treatment differences. In 2022, there were significant differences in fatality levels between treatment types and normal operating turbines. Curtailment at 5.0 m/s reduced fatalities by 30.8% compared to normal operations, and TIMR decreased fatalities by 48.6% compared to normal operations. Two different methods were used to evaluate the differences in energy loss for each treatment. The TIMR system resulted in 1.3% to 1.6 % annual energy loss in 2021 and 1.0% to 1.2 % in 2022. The Curtailment at 5.0 m/s resulted in 0.6% to 0.8 % annual energy loss in 2021 and 0.5% to 0.6 % in 2022. The project achieved all the stated objectives and demonstrated that TIMR is an effective technology that balances bat fatality reduction with energy generation. The results will support the deployment of TIMR and other acoustic sensor-based technologies. The research provides valuable insights into the impact of different treatments on fatality rates and energy outputs, contributing to the ongoing efforts to mitigate the environmental impact of wind energy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

UASs Optimization - An evaluation of multiple mode vehicles in monitoring and communication

This presentation will describe the author's experience as Co-I in the NASA/USFS Project: "Strategic Tac Radio and Tac Overwatch (STRATO): Last Mile Communications and Realtime Observation Stratospheric Platforms for wildland fire". This project utilizes an uncrewed Stratospheric (> 70Kft) lighter than air Uninhabited Aerial System (UAS), carries 50 Kg of sensor and communications equipment, and remains on station over a wildfire for up to 30 days. The air vehicle is capable of in excess of 180 days on station, but while the full duration capabilities were not utilized in this project, they could, and would, be used in monitoring a feature like a volcano. In addition to duration, the ability of these Stratospheric Platforms to persistently monitor an area, while carrying "smart" sensors - generating information products, rather than just data - is game changing. Utilizing technologies such as LoRa, the platform can now be the nexus of an ad-hoc sensor web, receiving LoRa based data from low power in-situ sensors in the area being monitored, combining it with high fidelity information gained from on-board sensors, and sending the information product to a remote research facility, using Satellite communication, in real time. The author will relate the evolution of information collection, derivation and delivery mechanisms in the entire range of NASA's UAS fleet, to today's world, where information products conventionally derived in desk top computational environments, and made available to the Science Community in weeks or months, are now being generated and delivered in near real time.

UASs↗

NASA NTRS2016

Kennedy Space Center Five Year Sustainability Plan

The Federal Government is committed to following sustainable principles. At its heart, sustainability integrates environmental, societal and economic solutions for present needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs. Building upon its pledge towards environmental stewardship, the Administration generated a vision of sustainability spanning ten goals mandated within Executive Order (EO) 13693, Planning for Federal Sustainability in the Next Decade. In November 2015, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) responded to this EO by incorporating it into a new release of the NASA Strategic Sustainability Performance Plan (SSPP). The SSPP recognizes the importance of aligning environmental practices in a manner that preserves, enhances and strengthens NASA's ability to perform its mission indefinitely. The Kennedy Space Center (KSC) is following suit with KSC's Sustainability Plan (SP) by promoting, maintaining and pioneering green practices in all aspects of our mission. KSC's SP recognizes that the best sustainable solutions use an interdisciplinary, collaborative approach spanning civil servant and contractor personnel from across the Center. This approach relies on the participation of all employees to develop and implement sustainability endeavors connected with the following ten goals: Reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Design, build and maintain sustainable buildings, facilities and infrastructure. Leverage clean and renewable energy. Increase water conservation. Improve fleet and vehicle efficiency and management. Purchase sustainable products and services. Minimize waste and prevent pollution. Implement performance contracts for Federal buildings. Manage electronic equipment and data centers responsibly. Pursue climate change resilience. The KSC SP details the strategies and actions that address the following objectives: Reduce Center costs. center dot Increase energy and water efficiencies. Promote smart buying practices. Increase reuse and recycling while decreasing waste. Benefit the community. Meet or exceed the EO and NASA SSPP sustainability goals.

Sustainability↗

DOE OSTI2020

Colorimetric Detection and Surface Decontamination of Metal Ions by Using Strippable Polymers - 20024

Strippable coating is a low cost and efficient decontamination method far more compatible for the cleaning of surfaces. This method allows contaminant entrapment and removal from different types of surfaces and also characterized by low-secondary waste generation after decontamination. The present work deals with the elaboration and testing of a new composition of Polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) aqueous solutions utilize the TTA (Thenoyl trifluoroacetone) ligand, employed as a strippable coating for the removal of metal ions e.g., UO{sub 2}{sup +2}, Ni{sup +2}, Cu{sup +2}, Fe{sup +3}, V{sup +5}, Eu{sup +3} and Cs{sup +} from 'contaminated' surfaces. The study aims at developing contaminant-sensing and decontaminating coatings for the detection and removal of metal ions from non porous surfaces. This 'smart' coating is shown to exhibit a clear contaminant dependent response in the form of color variation, and a detection sensitivity less than 0.5 μg per cm{sup 2}. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2019

An Energy Storage Cost Comparison: Li-Ion Batteries vs Distributed Load Control

In 2017, San Diego Gas & Electric installed a 30 MW, 120 MWh lithium-ion battery storage facility-the world's largest at the time. But, recent work demonstrates that local control can enable flexible loads to provide equivalent battery-like services to the grid. Our cost comparison shows that it is much cheaper to acquire 30 MW, 120 MWh of capacity by retro-fitting 120,000 water heaters with control hardware and telecommunications. Surprisingly, it may even be cheaper to give away 120,000 'smart' water heaters!

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

SMART-COM – Scalable Multi-Agent Adaptive Resolution Tools for Collaborative Outage Management

The purpose of this grant was to conduct scientific research and prototype applications to support NPP outage staff in their adaptive decision-making in efficient scheduling and resource allocation while preventing violation of safety technical specifications. The project contributed to scientific knowledge and engineering methods in (1) user interface design, (2) scheduling optimization and risk estimation, and (2) natural language processing that would benefit the nuclear power plants in minimizing schedule overruns and even unexpected shutdowns. The research team conducted site visits at a test reactor facility and an operating nuclear power plant to gather necessary information and inputs for research and development of a software application to support NPP staff in executing their outages. The final software application consisted of three modules. First, the natural language processing module supports interactive processing of technical documentation to build a database for outage staff to query non-permissible actions on system components. This module can alleviate outage staff from reviewing extensive documentation and minimize violation of technical specifications, especially in time-sensitive situations. Second, the schedule optimization module schedules outage activities and compute risk indices that outperform existing software and current practice. This module can reduce completion time of an outage that typically have too many activities for human to optimize based on current practice that does not apply the latest operations research. Finally, the visualization module presents progress and risk information of the overall outage and individual activities, as well as enabling access to the natural language processing and schedule optimization modules. This module can provide outage staff with situation awareness that are necessary to make risk-informed decisions in response to unexpected events during the execution of an outage.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2006

Providing Housing, Food and Medical Support for 25,000 Katrina Evacuees with 12 Hours Notice: The Harris County Medical Support of the Superdome Evacuees

Hurricane Katrina was responsible for trapping 25,000 people in the New Orleans Superdome and isolating many others throughout Louisiana and Mississippi. The transport of these evacuees to the Reliant Park (Houston, Texas) used 500 buses each containing about 55 people. Processing the arriving evacuees included addressing their health status and medical needs as follows: an initial triage at disembarkation, a secondary triage in the Reliant Astrodome and Center, and definitive clinical care in the Reliant Arena "Katrina" Clinic. Baylor College of Medicine (BCM) physicians boarded buses and identified the sickest for emergency transport to Harris County Hospital District (HCHD) hospitals. BCM departments represented included pediatrics, family and community medicine, internal medicine, radiology, obstetrics and gynecology, orthopedics, surgery, and psychiatry. Astrodome and Center triage was managed by BCM physicians and staffed by HCHD Nurses and volunteers from Texas and beyond. The Reliant Astrodome, Center and Arena reached peak headcounts of 15,000,4500, and 2500, respectively Most evacuees visiting the triage sites in the Astrodome and Center were treated using "over-the-counter" medications with the remaining being transported to the "Katrina" clinic. The clinic was equipped with a lab, pharmacy, digital X-ray, and ultrasound machines in addition to electronic patient records created using 80 computer terminals. The Katrina clinic saw more than 15,000 patients during 15 days of operations (2,000 on the first full day), administered 10,000 tetanus shots, and filled thousands of prescriptions. At the peak of operations, the clinic saw 150 patients/hour with 25 physicians scheduled for each 12-hour shift. Approximately 900 people were transported to hospital emergency rooms. Within 3 weeks of arriving at the Reliant Park facilities, more than 90% of the families found permanent housing, enrolled children in schools, and found work. Using data obtained from manual and electronic medical records, this presentation will document the major milestones and lessons learned from this extraordinary project to help the Katrina evacuees.

Hamilton, Douglas↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cost and Throughput Analysis for the NASA Ames Arc Jet Modernization Program

NASA Ames Center is currently evaluating alternatives to modernize the Arc Jet Complex, a critical part of testing for NASA’s planetary missions. NASA’s Arc Jet Complex facilities “are used to simulate the aerothermodynamic heating that a spacecraft endures throughout hypersonic atmospheric entry, and to test candidate thermal protection system (TPS) materials and systems. “Because planetary mission schedules often have tight windows due to planetary alignment constraints, a small increase in schedule could result in a two-year delay. Such a delay could increase the cost of a $1billionmissionbyhundreds of millions of dollars due to project personnel pay and clean room storage. To avoid these costs, the authors support NASA Ames in evaluating return on investment (ROI) and effectiveness of alternatives for modernizing the complex. The first input into the ROI is the deconstruction and construction cost estimates, which are developed using independent research on highly specialized subsystems, vendor quotes, and Unified Facilities Criteria (UFC), depending on the facility and work package. One of the measures of effectiveness is throughput analysis of the test bays, as a main goal of the modernization is to increase the number of possible test runs per year. This analysis is conducted via a probabilistic simulation and accounts for a variety of stochastic factors that influence the sequence of test runs, such as the facility availability; test complexity; the need to pause to assess test results; test failure; and the possibility of a system failure. The methodologies for both these analyses are discussed, along with the challenges presented due to the unique nature of the highly specialized test equipment.

Jennifer Scheel↗

DOE OSTI2020

Micro- and nano-scale techniques to explore bacteria and fungi interactions with silicate minerals

Biogeochemical interfaces such as bacteria-mineral, fungi-mineral, and water-mineral are hot spots for important processes and reactions in all environments. Studying these interfaces are useful over a range of spatial and temporal scales in order to understand elemental cycles, soil formation, restoration, and bioremediation. Advancement of micro- and nano-scale techniques lead to new discoveries about reactions and interactions at the heterogeneous interface of bacteria, fungi, and minerals. The current state-of-art of analytical techniques allows to study solid, liquid, and gas phases and their interactions with biological components and often permits simultaneous study of chemical and physical properties in a site-specific manner. Improved techniques not only increased spatial and temporal resolution with site specificity but also decreased sample preparation, artifact generation, sample size requirements and analytical time. There are limitations and challenges that still need to be overcome while studying the very heterogeneous microbe-mineral interface, but improved accessibility to beam time at the synchrotron facilities and instrument time at the user laboratories offer some solutions. This review chapter focuses on a subset of the available micro- and nano-scale techniques: electron and atomic force microscopy, and X-ray based spectroscopy of traditional and synchrotron-based applications.

Slicate minerals, microscopy, microbes↗

DOE OSTI2024

Best Practices for Resilience in Smart Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings

The Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) supports federal agencies' energy decisions with information and guidance on design, funding, and operations to ensure federal buildings are efficient and resilient. The modernization of building infrastructure and the evolution of buildings to support decarbonization involves complex implementation of multiple components across several systems. This includes energy-efficient equipment, on-site energy generation and storage systems, and control systems. These systems have operational modes that can operate more efficiently if they are able to behave responsively to the conditions of the electrical grid. These grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEB) allow facilities to manage power demand according to operational constraints and market signals issued by grid operators. With proper design and planning, these same capabilities have the potential to enable building and facility resilience - coordinating with microgrids, maintaining power on critical circuits to sustain essential operations, and monitoring building health and safety status during an outage. By managing the load of buildings, GEBs can also reduce the cost of backup generation and make better use of renewable power sources on site. This document outlines some of the processes and considerations to guide the design and operation of GEBs in ways that promote facility resilience.

building decarbonization↗

DOE OSTI2023

QuComm: Optimizing Collective Communication for Distributed Quantum Computing

Distributed quantum computing (DQC) is a scalable way to build a large-scale quantum computing system while the error-prone nonlocal communication between DQC nodes may heavily degrade the fidelity of the distributed quantum program and thus demands specific compiler optimizations. Previous compilers on DQC communication optimization either assumes unlimited communication resource or a few communication qubits due to the hardware limitation. The former compilers may not be efficient when interfacing with communication-resource-constrained DQC hardware while the latter compilers lose the opportunities of optimizing collective communication and routing concurrent communication as they unnecessarily couple limited communication qubits with the implementation of expensive inter-node operations. In this paper, we invent the communication buffer, a communication facility consisting of idle qubits in each compute node, to decouple the execution of inter-node quantum operations from communication qubits: communication qubits are devoted to generating inter-node entanglement while internode operations are conducted in the communication buffer. The communication buffer provides an intermediate layer for inter-node communication and paves the way for collective communication optimization. We then propose QuComm, a buffer-based compiler framework that first performs smart buffer allocation according to communication characteristics of the distributed quantum program and then optimizes and collectively routes inter-node quantum operations. Experimental results on a hierarchical DQC system show that the proposed QuComm can reduce the most expensive inter-node communication request and the latency of various distributed quantum programs by 50.4% and 47.6% on average, respectively.

Wu, Anbang↗

NASA NTRS1989

Smart structures research program at Virginia Tech

A review of the smart structures and avionics research and teaching program that started in 1979 at Virginia Tech is described. Current smart structures research include major efforts in the development of embedded and attached optical fiber and acoustic fiber sensors for cure monitoring, in-service lifetime structural testing, nondestructive evaluation, and impact and damage detection and analysis; of gradual material degradation; sensor signal multiplexing, processing and data handling to achieve near real-time distributed structural analysis; and the integration of embedded sensors, actuators and control electronics to achieve controlled structural response. Special campus facilities used for this work include an optical fiber fabrication facility, an autoclave for composite structure fabrication and curing, and laboratories for optical fiber sensor development, materials response and nondestructive evaluation, structural control testing and computer engineering.

Claus, R. O.↗

DOE OSTI2015

The role of atropisomers on the photo-reactivity and fatigue of diarylethene-based metal–organic frameworks

Photo-responsive metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) are one example of light controlled smart materials for use in advanced sensors, data storage, actuators and molecular switches. In this paper we show the design, synthesis and characterization of a photo-responsive linker that is subsequently reacted to yield MOF single crystals. The photo-responsive properties of the resulting UBMOF-2 arise from the photo-induced cyclization of the diarylethene moiety designed into the linker. Computational modeling to assess the relative energies of linker atropisomers reveals a large energetic barrier preventing facile interconversion between key species. The role of this barrier on the observed photo-induced fatigue provides useful insight into the development of advanced photo-responsive nanoporous materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2014

15 MW HArdware-in-the-loop Grid Simulation Project

The 15MW Hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) Grid Simulator project was to (1) design, (2) construct and (3) commission a state-of-the-art grid integration testing facility for testing of multi-megawatt devices through a ‘shared facility’ model open to all innovators to promote the rapid introduction of new technology in the energy market to lower the cost of energy delivered. The 15 MW HIL Grid Simulator project now serves as the cornerstone of the Duke Energy Electric Grid Research, Innovation and Development (eGRID) Center. This project leveraged the 24 kV utility interconnection and electrical infrastructure of the US DOE EERE funded WTDTF project at the Clemson University Restoration Institute in North Charleston, SC. Additionally, the project has spurred interest from other technology sectors, including large PV inverter and energy storage testing and several leading edge research proposals dealing with smart grid technologies, grid modernization and grid cyber security. The key components of the project are the power amplifier units capable of providing up to 20MW of defined power to the research grid. The project has also developed a one of a kind solution to performing fault ride-through testing by combining a reactive divider network and a large power converter into a hybrid method. This unique hybrid method of performing fault ride-through analysis will allow for the research team at the eGRID Center to investigate the complex differences between the alternative methods of performing fault ride-through evaluations and will ultimately further the science behind this testing. With the final goal of being able to perform HIL experiments and demonstration projects, the eGRID team undertook a significant challenge with respect to developing a control system that is capable of communicating with several different pieces of equipment with different communication protocols in real-time. The eGRID team developed a custom fiber optical network that is based upon FPGA hardware that allows for communication between the key real-time interfaces and reduces the latency between these interfaces to acceptable levels for HIL experiments.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2019

Improving Operational Efficiency, Compliance and Community Perception with Real-time Data - 19260

The nuclear and medical radiation industry has always faced a significant burden in effectively balancing exposure and productivity. Maintenance operations and development of new techniques require significant staffing resources to monitor and review personnel exposures and changes in operational radiation levels. Currently utilised monitoring technology and review techniques remain unchanged since the 1950's, relying upon mostly analogue instrumentation and paper reporting. After utilising isolated-area monitoring during a reactor decommissioning project it became apparent that current systems created false assurance as the units continually failed without warning due to 'dirty' power. These instrument failures could have easily led to an unnecessary exposure while operators continued to assume they were being safely monitored. This paper is a philosophical discussion on how current shortcomings could be addressed, security increased, and exposure risks minimised, by utilising real-time monitoring and automated reporting. The community and media expectations of reported data and nuclear monitoring systems continue to be coloured by sensational technology seen in movies and emerging technology available through smart homes and smart cities initiatives. For the general public to be more engaged with real radiation levels and effects, the nuclear industry needs to more effectively communicate safe levels. Organisations can have regain control of exposure levels discussions through the controlled release of background and expected exposure level data. An increase in real world monitoring data communicated in a controlled and more effective way will aid in the general public accepting, and being educated about, the minimal increase above natural background levels of the nuclear industry and other radiation facilities. This is particularly as Australia is in the process of implementing its Nuclear Waste Facility, with community acceptance the number one inhibitor of being able to move forward. Storage, mobile assets, and processing all present unique management, security, exposure, and telemetry challenges for a facility operations manager. Active monitoring and automated review of the monitoring data can alert operators to any unexpected events before any resultant increases in radiation levels cause an unplanned exposure to operators or the environment. Integration of radiation monitoring data with global positioning telemetry enables better organisational awareness of mobile asset location and early detection of any potential shifting and reduction in shielding integrity of sources and encapsulated waste during transport. Additionally, the real-time monitoring can be set-up to enhance an organisations' or nation's security capabilities. For instance, the real time monitor will send an automated alert in the case of an unexpected movement of a source through a monitored facility or for an unscheduled movement of a monitored vehicle. There are further benefits to be gained in control, ALARA principles and effluent management by increasing real-time monitoring capabilities through the stages of the waste cycle. Increasing operational effectiveness while delivering operational cost savings sounds like an attractive proposition. With increased access to operational area radiation data comes drastically improved real-time management of exposures for new, and experimental practices. Increased live data can be utilised to identify optimum practices for reducing operational and environmental exposures or releases. This increased operational data effectively comes with the added benefit of a reduction in the required health physics personnel resources for general operations. By reducing exposure and the detachment of required health physics resources from routine operations, there is greater availability for these resources to support maintenance operations and project-based work. The review of this increased data will create internal capability to identify low-- and high-risk activities, resulting in the ability to reduce the number of highly skilled workers in an industry where the availability of this talent is declining. During my time as the Radiation Safety and Nuclear Security Manager at a research facility, I implemented a real-time monitoring system. The system identified a secondary risk that had previously been unidentified and posed a higher exposure and security risk than the radiation practice being monitored. What stops industry from implementing technology that encourages agile work practices, while minimising security risks and personnel exposure? (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Use of physics to improve solar forecast: Part III, impacts of different cloud types

Cloud-type impacts present a great challenge to solar forecasting due to diverse and complex cloud-radiation interactions. This third part of our paper sequence seeks to address this challenge by quantifying the forecast accuracies under eight cloud types: cumulus (Cu), stratified clouds (St), altocumulus (Ac), altostratus (As), cirrostratus/anvil (Cr), cirrus (Ci), congestus (Co), deep convective clouds (Dc) across four physics-informed persistence models reported in Part I. To generalize the cloud impacts, the eight cloud types are further grouped into three cloud categories based on their common features: weak convective clouds, stratiform clouds, and strong convective clouds. Here, the decade-long (2001 ~ 2014) collocated measurements of irradiances and cloud types at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program South Great Plain (SGP) Central Facility site are used for model evaluation. Results reveal a clear performance hierarchy for global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI): best for weak convective clouds and cirrus, intermediate for stratiform clouds, and worst for strong convective clouds. Performance for diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) is less influenced by cloud types. Cloud albedo dominates all three irradiances for Dc, while both cloud albedo and cloud fraction are influential for other cloud types. A 12 %~33 % improvement in accuracy at 6-hour lead time compared to the benchmark smart model confirms the effectiveness of incorporating physics into the models for various cloud types; further improvements are expected by directly integrating cloud type information into forecasting models by modifying the physical formulation of cloud-radiation interaction, and/or using more advanced machine learning models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗