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At least 217 records · Page 12

Hotspot conditions achieved in inertial confinement fusion experiments on the National Ignition Facility

We describe the overall performance of the major indirect-drive inertial confinement fusion campaigns executed at the National Ignition Facility. With respect to the proximity to ignition, we can describe the performance of current experiments both in terms of no-burn ignition metrics (metrics based on the hydrodynamic performance of targets in the absence of alpha-particle heating) and in terms of the thermodynamic properties of the hotspot and dense fuel at stagnation—in particular, the hotspot pressure, temperature, and areal density. We describe a simple 1D isobaric model to derive these quantities from experimental observables and examine where current experiments lie with respect to the conditions required for ignition.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Optically targeted search for gravitational waves emitted by core-collapse supernovae during the first and second observing runs of advanced LIGO and advanced Virgo

In this work, we present the results from a search for gravitational-wave transients associated with core-collapse supernovae observed within a source distance of approximately 20 Mpc during the first and second observing runs of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. No significant gravitational-wave candidate was detected. We report the detection efficiencies as a function of the distance for waveforms derived from multidimensional numerical simulations and phenomenological extreme emission models. Furthermore, the sources with neutrino-driven explosions are detectable at the distances approaching 5 kpc, and for magnetorotationally driven explosions the distances are up to 54 kpc. However, waveforms for extreme emission models are detectable up to 28 Mpc. For the first time, the gravitational-wave data enabled us to exclude part of the parameter spaces of two extreme emission models with confidence up to 83%, limited by coincident data coverage. Besides, using ad hoc harmonic signals windowed with Gaussian envelopes, we constrained the gravitational-wave energy emitted during core collapse at the levels of 4.27×10 -4 M ⊙ c 2 and 1.28×10 -1 M ⊙ c 2 for emissions at 235 and 1304 Hz, respectively. These constraints are 2 orders of magnitude more stringent than previously derived in the corresponding analysis using initial LIGO, initial Virgo, and GEO 600 data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Intergalactic magnetic field studies by means of γ -ray emission from GRB 190114C

The presence of delayed GeV emission after a strong transient, such as a gamma-ray burst (GRB), in the very-high energy (VHE) E > 100 GeV band can be the signature of a nonzero magnetic field in the intergalactic medium. Here we used a synchrotron self-Compton multiwavelength model to infer an analytical description of the intrinsic VHE spectrum (corrected for absorption by the extragalactic background light) of GRB 190114C to predict the light curves and spectral energy distributions of the delayed emission with Monte Carlo simulations for different intergalactic magnetic field (IGMF) configurations (strengths B = 8 × 10 -21 G, 10 -20 G, 3 × 10 -20 G and correlation length $\lambda$ > 1 Mpc), and compared them with the Fermi Large Area Telescope (Fermi LAT) limits computed for several exposure times. We found that the Fermi LAT is not sensitive enough to constrain any IGMF strengths using GRB 190114C.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Self Configuring Digital Twin for Optimizing E-Waste Recycling

Electronic waste recycling industry needs a decision support tool for optimizing their processes to become cost competitive. We developed a software called CMAT, Comprehensive Manufacturing Assessment Tool. The aim of CMAT is to provide the e-waste recycling companies with a fully customizable decision support framework that analyzes the optimal supply chain configurations. The software optimizes the logistics operations, helps to identify the best recycling process configuration, and generates valuable insights regarding the economic performance of different categories of e-waste. The ultimate purpose of the tool is to assist the users developing a digital twin of their processes and to provide insights on questions pertinent to the e-waste recycling industry including how to increase efficiency and reduce costs, energy consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Impact of Wildfires on Solar Resource Availability in California in a Changing Climate

Wildfires can emit large amounts of atmospheric particulate matters and influence not only air quality but also availability of photovoltaic (PV) generation due to scattering and absorption of solar radiation. Under anthropogenic changing climate, wildfire activity is projected to increase over western North America due to drier and warmer climate, implying increasing impact on solar resource and larger uncertainty in solar generation especially in regions with faster PV penetration. This study focuses on quantifying the impact of wildfires on aerosol optical depth (AOD) and thus solar resource over California using National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). This assessment includes historical analysis and estimation of solar resource under wildfire scenarios (2020 wildfire and an enhanced wildfire scenario based on 2020 wildfires). Historical analysis for the period of July-October 2019/2020 (low/high fire activity period) shows that the averaged global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) are reduced by about 30 and 90 W m-2 (5.6 and 15.3%), respectively, during high fire activity period. To create AOD dataset for enhanced fire scenario, 165% increase in burn area (in around 2050) is selected based on comprehensive literature review, which is further applied to the Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN) fire emission. WRF-Chem model with the enhanced FINN emissions is used to simulate and represent a preserving spatial distribution of burned areas and wildfire-emitted aerosols. Our initial analysis suggests that the"enhanced 2020 wildfire" AOD can increase by a factor of 1.3 - 2, which can significantly reduce solar irradiance and increase uncertainty in generation and reliability of power system in extreme wildfire events under a high solar penetration scenario. Overall, this study provides an estimate of the impacts of wildfires on solar resource to make informed decisions on reserve planning, generation scheduling, and reliability investments.

aerosol optical depth↗

Using Satellite‐Derived Fire Arrival Times for Coupled Wildfire‐Air Quality Simulations at Regional Scales of the 2020 California Wildfire Season

Abstract Wildfire frequency has increased in the Western US over recent decades, driven by climate change and a legacy of forest management practices. Consequently, human structures, health, and life are increasingly at risk due to wildfires. Furthermore, wildfire smoke presents a growing hazard for regional and national air quality. In response, many scientific tools have been developed to study and forecast wildfire behavior, or test interventions that may mitigate risk. In this study, we present a retrospective analysis of 1 month of the 2020 Northern California wildfire season, when many wildfires with varying environments and behavior impacted regional air quality. We simulated this period using a coupled numerical weather prediction model with online atmospheric chemistry, and compare two approaches to representing smoke emissions: an online fire spread model driven by remotely sensed fire arrival times and a biomass burning emissions inventory. First, we quantify the differences in smoke emissions and timing of fire activity, and characterize the subsequent impact on estimates of smoke emissions. Next, we compare the simulated smoke to surface observations and remotely sensed smoke; we find that despite differences in the simulated smoke surface concentrations, the two models achieve similar levels of accuracy. We present a detailed comparison between the performance and relative strengths of both approaches, and discuss potential refinements that could further improve future simulations of wildfire smoke. Finally, we characterize the interactions between smoke and meteorology during this event, and discuss the implications that increases in regional smoke may have on future meteorological conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Drying of tundra landscapes will limit subsidence-induced acceleration of permafrost thaw: Modeling Archive

This Modeling Archive is in support of a NGEE Arctic publication in review "Drying of tundra landscapes will limit subsidence-induced acceleration of permafrost thaw". The study used a cryohydrology model to assess the potential risk of abrupt permafrost thaw triggered by melting ground ice, a key open question associated with permafrost response to a warming Arctic. The spatially resolved simulations are for a small catchment 465 ice-wedge polygons in polygonal tundra near Utqiagvik, Alaska in the high-emissions RCP8.5 climate scenario. The simulations are compared to runoff, evapotranspiration and subsidence in the current climate and agree well. The study used the ATS code configured as an intermediate-scale cryohydrology model (Advanced Terrestrial Simulator, Version v2). The archive includes input files for spinup (1985 to 2005) and projections (2006 to 2100 - the manuscript reports 2006 to 2098). Three of the projections include the effects of subsidence and microtopography change with different depth profiles of ice content corresponding to the median, 20th percentile and 80th percentile. The fourth projection has subsidence turnoff and uses the reference case (median) ice content. Spatially averaged or aggregated output variables are included for the projections. Selected checkpoint files for the projections and postprocessing scripts are also included. Files included are *.xml; *.h5; *.exo; *.py; *.sh, *. nb, mesh files, and one file in the original Excel format plus *.csv and *.pdf to conserve formatting contained in the original file. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tree-based solvers for adaptive mesh refinement code $\scriptsize{FLASH}$ – IV. An X-ray radiation scheme to couple discrete and diffuse X-ray emission sources to the thermochemistry of the interstellar medium

X-ray radiation, in particular radiation between 0.1 and 10 keV, is evident from both point-like sources, such as compact objects and T-Tauri young stellar objects, and extended emission from hot, cooling gas, such as in supernova remnants. The X-ray radiation is absorbed by nearby gas, providing a source of both heating and ionization. While protoplanetary chemistry models now often include X-ray emission from the central young stellar object, simulations of star-forming regions have yet to include X-ray emission coupled to the chemo-dynamical evolution of the gas. We present an extension of the $\scriptsize{TREERAY}$ reverse ray trace algorithm implemented in the flash magnetohydrodynamic code which enables the inclusion of X-ray radiation from 0.1 keV < E γ < 100 keV, dubbed $\scriptsize{XRAYTHESPOT}$. $\scriptsize{XRAYTHESPOT}$ allows for the use of an arbitrary number of bins, minimum and maximum energies, and both temperature-independent and temperature-dependent user-defined cross-sections, along with the ability to include both point and extended diffuse emission and is coupled to the thermochemical evolution. We demonstrate the method with several multibin benchmarks testing the radiation transfer solution and coupling to the thermochemistry. Finally, we show two example star formation science cases for this module: X-ray emission from protostellar accretion irradiating an accretion disc and simulations of molecular clouds with active chemistry, radiation pressure, and protostellar radiation feedback from infrared to X-ray radiation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Progress in DIII-D towards validating divertor power exhaust predictions

In this study, UEDGE simulations highlight the role of cross-field drifts on the onset of detached conditions, and new calibrated divertor vacuum ultra violet (VUV) spectroscopy is used to challenge the predictions of radiative constituents in these simulations. UEDGE simulations for DIII-D H-mode plasmas with the open divertor with the ion ∇B-drift towards the X-point show a bifurcated onset of the low field side (LFS) divertor detachment, consistent with experimentally observed step-like detachment onset (Jaervinen A.E. et al 2018 Phys. Rev. Lett. 121 075001). The divertor plasma in the simulations exhibits hysteresis in upstream separatrix density between attached and detached solution branches. Reducing the drift magnitude by a factor of 3 eliminates the step-like detachment onset in the simulations, confirming the strong role of drifts in the bifurcated detachment onset. When measured local plasma densities and temperatures are within proximity of predicted values in the simulations, there is no shortfall of the local emission of the dominant resonant radiating lines. However, the simulations systematically predict a factor of two lower total integrated radiated power than measured by the bolometer with the difference lost through radial heat flow out of the computational domain. Even though there is no shortfall in the emission of the dominant lines, a shortfall of total radiated power can be caused by underpredicted spatial extent of the radiation front, indicating a potential upstream or divertor transport physics origin for the radiation shortfall, or shortfall of radiated power in the spectrum between the dominant lines. In addition to the underpredicted spatial extent, in detached conditions, the simulations overpredict the peak radiation and dominant carbon lines near the X-point, which can be alleviated by manually increasing divertor diffusivity in the simulations, highlighting the ad hoc cross-field transport as one of the key limitations of the predictive capability of these divertor fluid codes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Time Shifted Transport Tallies

When modeling experiments on platforms such as the National Ignition Facility (NIF), several different calculations are strung together to calculate the final diagnostic response of the detectors on the machine. For example, a highly detailed simulation may be performed of capsule implosion on NIF, where one of the key diagnostics is the history of the thermal radiation emission from the capsule. This simulation domain can be a few centimeters in size. The NIF target chamber is much larger, so a second calculation can be done to transport the energy from the capsule out to the diagnostics. Typically, the results from the first calculation are used as a point source in the second, since all the fine detail is not needed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Biomass burning aerosol radiative effects in the Southeast Atlantic depend strongly on meteorological forcing method

Biomass burning aerosols (BBAs) from African fires may strongly impact Earth’s radiation budget in the southeast Atlantic (SEA), but the sign and magnitude of the overall radiative effect (RE) remain uncertain. Aerosol–climate models are needed to separately quantify direct, indirect, and semi-direct REs. Here, we evaluate improved simulations with the UK Met Office's Unified Model and explore REs resulting from various methods used to match observed meteorology (nudging or running forecasts reinitialized at different frequencies). REs are calculated as differences in radiative fluxes between simulations with and without smoke emissions and with and without aerosol absorption. All model setups agree on net warming for the SEA dominated by the direct effect. Simulated smoke, clouds, and the direct effect agree better with observations than previous studies using the same model, though biases in aerosol extinction and liquid water path remain. Changes in cloud droplet number concentration due to BBA self-lofting influence how cleanly we can separate cloud effects into semi-direct and indirect effects. Total RE, which remains unaffected, ranges from +3.0 to +7.9 W m −2 . The 4.9 W m −2 spread arises mainly from simulated semi-direct effects. Forecasts three days long or less probably do not allow time for plausible differences in boundary layer properties due to semi-direct effects to accumulate. Free running simulations with and without smoke accumulate differences in meteorology that are likely spurious “butterfly effects”. We recommend future research quantifying BBA REs over weeks to months to use meteorological forcing techniques that allow aerosol absorption to affect the boundary layer.

Giuffrida, Eric [Carnegie Mellon University, Pitts↗

The effect of price-based demand response on carbon emissions in European electricity markets: The importance of adequate carbon prices

Price-based demand response (PBDR) has recently been attributed great economic but also environmental potential. However, the determination of its short-term effects on carbon emissions requires the knowledge of marginal emission factors (MEFs), which compared to grid mix emission factors (XEFs), are cumbersome to calculate due to the complex characteristics of national electricity markets. This study, therefore, proposes two merit order-based methods to approximate hourly MEFs and applies them to readily available datasets from 20 European countries for the years 2017–2019. Based on the calculated electricity prices, standardized daily load shifts were simulated which indicated that carbon emissions increased for 8 of the 20 countries and by 2.1% on average. Thus, under specific circumstances, PBDR leads to carbon emissions increases, mainly due to the economic advantage fuel sources such as lignite and coal have in the merit order. MEF-based load shifts reduced the mean resulting carbon emissions by 35%, albeit with 56% lower monetary cost savings compared to price-based load shifts. Finally, by repeating the load shift simulations for different carbon price levels, the impact of the carbon price on the resulting carbon emissions was analyzed. The Spearman correlation coefficient between carbon intensity and marginal cost along the German merit order substantially increased with increasing carbon price. The coefficients were -0.13 for the 2019 carbon price of 24.9 €/t, 0 for 42.6 €/t, and 0.4 for 100.0 €/t. Therefore, with adequate carbon prices, PBDR can be an effective tool for both economical and environmental improvement.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Equivalent Point Sources for Simulating Nuclear/Radiological Search Operations

Modeling and simulation can be used to estimate the detection of different types and strengths of radioactive sources. Simulations of shielded gamma-ray sources in complex environments, such as searches in urban areas using vehicle-mounted detectors, can demonstrate what source strengths and shielding combinations should be able to be detected. For faster calculations, gamma-emitting sources that could have different shielding layers can be simulated ahead of time, resulting in equivalent point source emission distributions that can be used in larger simulation models. Larger-scale models will then run faster using equivalent point sources because the shielding layers around the sources have already been accounted for. Accompanying this paper are 260 equivalent point source emission files for 72 sources with different shielding layers, formatted for three different Monte Carlo codes. Users wanting to request versions of the SCALE and/or MCNP software can find details here: https://rsicc.ornl.gov/

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Verification of a fully kinetic ion model for electromagnetic simulations of high-frequency waves in toroidal geometry

For the research of high-frequency electromagnetic waves in tokamaks, an electromagnetic simulation model, in which the ion dynamics is described by a six-dimensional Vlasov equation and the electron dynamics is described by a drift kinetic equation, is formulated and implemented in the global gyrokinetic toroidal code (GTC). Analytic dispersion relations are derived in reduced systems and compared with various theories to verify the model. Linear simulations of a generalized ion Bernstein wave and ion cyclotron emission are verified by comparing the GTC simulation results with analytic dispersion relation theory and magnetoacoustic cyclotron instability theory, respectively, in cylindrical geometry.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Increased Variability of Biomass Burning Emissions in CMIP6 Amplifies Hydrologic Cycle in the CESM2 Large Ensemble

Abstract Historical simulations performed for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 used biomass burning emissions between 1997 and 2014 containing higher spatial and temporal variability compared to emission inventories specified for earlier years, and compared to emissions used in previous (e.g., CMIP5) simulation intercomparisons. Using the Community Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble, we show this increased biomass burning emissions variability leads to amplification of the hydrologic cycle poleward of 40°N. Notably, the high variability of biomass burning emissions leads to increased latent heat fluxes, column‐integrated precipitable water, and precipitation. Greater ocean heat uptake, weaker meridional energy transport from the tropics, greater atmospheric shortwave and longwave absorption, and lower relative humidity act to moderate this hydrologic cycle amplification. Our results suggest it is not only the secular changes (on multidecadal timescales) in biomass burning emissions that impact the hydrologic cycle, but also the shorter timescale variability in emissions.

Heyblom, Kyle B.↗

A Lake Biogeochemistry Model for Global Methane Emissions: Model Development, Site‐Level Validation, and Global Applicability

Abstract Lakes are important sentinels of climate change and may contribute over 30% of natural methane (CH 4 ) emissions; however, no earth system model (ESM) has represented lake CH 4 dynamics. To fill this gap, we refined a process‐based lake biogeochemical model to simulate global lake CH 4 emissions, including representation of lake bathymetry, oxic methane production (OMP), the effect of water level on ebullition, new non‐linear CH 4 oxidation kinetics, and the coupling of sediment carbon pools with in‐lake primary production and terrigenous carbon loadings. We compiled a lake CH 4 data set for model validation. The model shows promising performance in capturing the seasonal and inter‐annual variabilities of CH 4 emissions at 10 representative lakes for different lake types and the variations in mean annual CH 4 emissions among 106 lakes across the globe. The model reproduces the variations of the observed surface CH 4 diffusion and ebullition along the gradients of lake latitude, depth, and surface area. The results suggest that OMP could play an important role in surface CH 4 diffusion, and its relative importance is higher in less productive and/or deeper lakes. The model performance is improved for capturing CH 4 outgassing events in non‐floodplain lakes and the seasonal variability of CH 4 ebullition in floodplain lakes by representing the effect of water level on ebullition. The model can be integrated into ESMs to constrain global lake CH 4 emissions and climate‐CH 4 feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗