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At least 217 records · Page 12

Applying Compression-Based Metrics to Seismic Data in Support of Global Nuclear Explosion Monitoring

The analysis of seismic data for evidence of possible nuclear explosion testing is a critical global security mission that relies heavily on human expertise to identify and mark seismic signals embedded in background noise. To assist analysts in making these determinations, we adapted two compression distance metrics for use with seismic data. First, we demonstrated that the Normalized Compression Distance (NCD) metric can be adapted for use with waveform data and can identify the arrival times of seismic signals. Then we tested an approximation for the NCD called Sliding Information Distance (SLID), which can be computed much faster than NCD. We assessed the accuracy of the SLID output by comparing it to both the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the judgments of expert seismic analysts. Our results indicate that SLID effectively identifies arrival times and provides analysts with useful information that can aid their analysis process.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Ground Motion Inputs for the Seismic Shake Table Test

Currently, spent nuclear fuel (SNF) is stored in on-site independent spent-fuel storage installations (ISFSIs) at seventythree (73) nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the US. Because a site for geologic repository for permanent disposal of SNF has not been constructed, the SNF will remain in dry storage significantly longer than planned. During this time, the ISFSIs, and potentially consolidated storage facilities, will experience earthquakes of different magnitudes. The dry storage systems are designed and licensed to withstand large seismic loads. When dry storage systems experience seismic loads, there are little data on the response of SNF assemblies contained within them. The Spent Fuel Waste Disposition (SFWD) program is planning to conduct a full-scale seismic shake table test to close the gap related to the seismic loads on the fuel assemblies in dry storage systems. This test will allow for quantifying the strains and accelerations on surrogate fuel assembly hardware and cladding during earthquakes of different magnitudes and frequency content. The main component of the test unit will be the full-scale NUHOMS 32 PTH2 dry storage canister. The canister will be loaded with three surrogate fuel assemblies and twenty-nine dummy assemblies. Two dry storage configurations will be tested – horizontal and vertical above-ground concrete overpacks. These configurations cover 91% of the current dry storage configurations. The major input into the shake table test are the seismic excitations or the earthquake ground motions – acceleration time histories in two horizontal and one vertical direction that will be applied to the shake table surface during the tests. The shake table surface represents the top of the concrete pad on which a dry storage system is placed. The goal of the ground motion task is to develop the ground motions that would be representative of the range of seismotectonic and other conditions that any site in the Western US (WUS) or Central Eastern US (CEUS) might entail. This task is challenging because of the large number of the ISFSI sites, variety of seismotectonic and site conditions, and effects that soil amplification, soil-structure interaction, and pad flexibility may have on the ground motions.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Programmatic Advantages of Linear Equivalent Seismic Models

Underground explosions nonlinearly deform the surrounding earth material and can interact with the free surface to produce spall. However, at typical seismological observation distances the seismic wavefield can be accurately modeled using linear approximations. Although nonlinear algorithms can accurately simulate very near field ground motions, they are computationally expensive and potentially unnecessary for far field wave simulations. Conversely, linearized seismic wave propagation codes are orders of magnitude faster computationally and can accurately simulate the wavefield out to typical observational distances. Thus, devising a means of approximating a nonlinear source in terms of a linear equivalent source would be advantageous both for scenario modeling and for interpretation of seismic source models that are based on linear, far-field approximations. This allows fast linear seismic modeling that still incorporates many features of the nonlinear source mechanics built into the simulation results so that one can have many of the advantages of both types of simulations without the computational cost of the nonlinear computation. In this report we first show the computational advantage of using linear equivalent models, and then discuss how the near-source (within the nonlinear wavefield regime) environment affects linear source equivalents and how well we can fit seismic wavefields derived from nonlinear sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Exploring Whether Subsurface Fluid Production Can Minimize Triggered Seismicity in Geothermal Fields

Fluid injection and production related to energy recovery and other industrial operations alter the pressure and stress state of subsurface reservoirs which can lead to induced seismicity. Here, the primary goal is to investigate the hypothesis that the modulation of stress state in subsurface reservoirs through fluid injection/production operations can reduce the likelihood of inducing seismicity. Validation of this mitigation strategy will provide an active operational method to control induced seismicity in subsurface reservoir exploitations such as geothermal energy recovery and carbon storage. In this project, we analyze the relationship between extensive fluid production and the paucity of aftershock activity at the Coso Geothermal plant (CGP) following the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence, where high rates of aftershock triggering were expected. We developed a high-fidelity multiphase coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) model to simulate fluid injection/production activities at the CGP between 1986 and 2020. THM results of surface subsidence due to high rates of fluid production agree well with field observations from global positioning system (GPS) and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR). Subsequently, the variations of pore pressure, temperature and stress state were used to drive numerical earthquake simulations of the aftershock response to the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes. The earthquake simulations show that seismic quiescence may occur following the Ridgecrest event, depending on the initial stress state at the time of the mainshock and at the initiation of geothermal energy production. Seismic quiescence occurs in 20% of the cases we explored, where rates are decreased by 50% of the background rate in the two years following the mainshock. In circumstances where aftershock rates increase near the CGP following Ridgecrest, the average rate change is a factor of two larger than background rates from simulations with no operations. These findings indicate that unlike many other operations that bring faults closer to failure, operations at the CGP are acting to stabilize faults such that triggering in the current stress state is minimal.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seismic Loading for Short-Term Duration Exposures and Temporary Structures

The purpose of this document is to determine the appropriate seismic demand forces associated with a short-term and temporary seismic exposure for protecting structures, systems, and components (SSCs) from hazards associated with Seismic Design Category 1 (SDC-1), SDC-2, and SDC-3 seismic events based on data provided in the Probabilistic Seismic Hazards Update for LLNL prepared by Fugro Consultants, Inc. in accordance with DOE-STD-1020.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Bayesian inference for the seismic moment tensor using regional waveforms and a data-derived distribution of velocity models

The largest source of uncertainty in any source inversion is the velocity model used to construct the transfer function employed in the forward model that relates observed ground motion to the seismic moment tensor. However, standard inverse procedures often does not quantify uncertainty in the seismic moment tensor due to error in the Green’s functions from uncertain event location and Earth structure. We attempt to incorporate this uncertainty into an estimation of the seismic moment tensor using a distribution of velocity models calculated in a prior effort based on different and complementary data sets. The posterior distribution of velocity models is then used to construct Green’s functions for use in Bayesian inference of an unknown seismic moment tensor using regional waveform data. The combined likelihood is estimated using data-specific error models and the posterior of the seismic moment tensor is estimated and can be interpreted in terms of most-probable source-type.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seasonal Modulation of Crustal Seismicity in Northeastern Japan Driven by Snow Load

Numerous studies have reported that surface hydrological loading can seasonally modulate seismicity rates at crustal depths. For example, substantial winter snow accumulation occurs across the Japanese Islands, and these snowy regions appear to have seasonally modulated the occurrence of previous large inland earthquakes. Therefore, it is important to investigate the impact of seasonal stress changes on crustal seismicity to deepen our understanding of earthquake generation. Here we constrain seasonal changes in the surface load across northeastern Japan using Global Navigation Satellite System surface displacements and evaluate the potential relationship between temporal trends in inland seismicity and estimated seasonal stress changes. The spatial distribution of the seasonal surface load is consistent with snow depth along the Sea of Japan. The inland seismicity beneath northeastern Japan is modestly modulated by the seasonal stress changes that are induced by the annual snow load. However, this seasonal response is weaker than that in other regions. This weak modulation may be due to the small surface-load-induced stress perturbation relative to the long-term-averaged stressing rate and/or the limited presence of crustal fluids to trigger seismicity in Japan.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

One Earth Energy Seismic Interpretation

The objectives of the Illinois Storage Corridor (ISC) project are to accelerate commercial deployment of carbon capture utilization and storage at two individual sites and receive approvals for Underground Injection Control (UIC) Class VI permits for construction at each site (ISC Project Narrative, 2020). As part of this project, and as part of the subsurface geologic characterization, 2D seismic data was acquired at both sites. This report summarizes the findings from the 2D and 3D seismic interpretation at the One Earth Energy site near Gibson City, Illinois. The seismic data confirms the stratigraphic continuity of the Mt. Simon Arkose Zone storage interval and the Eau Claire confining unit across the project area. The seismic data also indicates that there are faults that transect the Mt. Simon Arkose Zone Sandstone storage reservoir within the modeled CO 2 plume (for more detailed information, see Faults and Fractures section of One Earth Energy Class VI Permit applications). However, the seismic data also shows that there are no faults within the modeled CO 2 plume that transect the confining unit Eau Claire Formation. The faults that transect the Mt. Simon Arkose Zone Sandstone storage reservoir all tip out in the Lower Mt. Simon Formation and do not reach the overlying Eau Claire confining unit. A small 3D survey acquired around the One Earth Energy #1 characterization well confirms these findings.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Coupled Hydromechanical Modeling and Assessment of Induced Seismicity at FWU: Utilizing Time-Lapse VSP and Microseismic Data

The objective of this work is to utilize integrated geomechanics, field vertical seismic profile (VSP) and microseismic data to characterize the complex subsurface stress conditions at the Farnsworth Unit (FWU). The model is based on a five-spot sector model extracted from a primary geomechanical model. The five-spot well injection pattern is characterized by extensive reservoir characterization data, such well logs, extracted cores and borehole geophone data, to facilitate the detailed examination of stress changes and microseismic event occurrences. The study utilizes field vertical seismic volumes acquired from the injection well 13-10A. The seismic volumes successfully provided snapshots of the behavior of the reservoir at distinct times. The use of VSP and microseismic data provided direct and indirect estimates of the dynamic stress changes occurring in the overburden, reservoir and underburden rock formations. In order to illuminate the stress regions and identify rocks that have undergone inelastic failure, microseismic event occurrences were utilized. Microseismic activity has been detected at the FWU; further study of its locations, timing, and magnitude was needed to deduce the nature of the changing stress state. The results of the study revealed that microseismic events were successfully modeled within the Morrow B formation. Moment magnitudes of seismic events were within the same magnitudes for events in the reservoir, suggesting the suitability of the model. The results of the study showed that the computed moment magnitudes for seismic events were insignificant to warrant safety concerns. The study findings showed the usefulness of coupled hydromechanical models in predicting the subsurface stress changes associated with CO 2 injection. The knowledge gained from this study will serve as a guideline for industries planning to undertake underground CO 2 storage, and characterize the subsurface stress changes.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Seismic Waveform Inversion Capability on Resource-Constrained Edge Devices

Seismic full wave inversion (FWI) is a widely used non-linear seismic imaging method used to reconstruct subsurface velocity images, however it is time consuming, has high computational cost and depend heavily on human interaction. Recently, deep learning has accelerated it’s use in several data-driven techniques, however most deep learning techniques suffer from overfitting and stability issues. In this work, we propose an edge computing-based data-driven inversion technique based on supervised deep convolutional neural network to accurately reconstruct the subsurface velocities. Deep learning based data-driven technique depends mostly on bulk data training. In this work, we train our deep convolutional neural network (DCN) (UNet and InversionNet) on the raw seismic data and their corresponding velocity models during the training phase to learn the non-linear mapping between the seismic data and velocity models. The trained network is then used to estimate the velocity models from new input seismic data during the prediction phase. The prediction phase is performed on a resource-constrained edge device such as Raspberry Pi. Raspberry Pi provides real-time and on-device computational power to execute the inference process. In addition, we demonstrate robustness of our models to perform inversion in the presence on noise by performing both noise-aware and no-noise training and feeding the resulting trained models with noise at different signal-to-noise (SNR) ratio values. We make great efforts to achieve very feasible inference times on the Raspberry Pi for both models. Specifically, the inference times per prediction for UNet and InversionNet models on Raspberry Pi were 22 and 4 s respectively whilst inference times for both models on the GPU were 2 and 18 s which are very comparable. Finally, we have designed a user-friendly interactive graphical user interface (GUI) to automate the model execution and inversion process on the Raspberry Pi.

Manu, Daniel (ORCID:0000000154982677)↗

Seismic analysis of nuclear power plant structures

Primary structures for nuclear power plants are designed to resist expected earthquakes of the site. Two intensities are referred to as Operating Basis Earthquake and Design Basis Earthquake. These structures are required to accommodate these seismic loadings without loss of their functional integrity. Thus, no plastic yield is allowed. The application of NASTRAN in analyzing some of these seismic induced structural dynamic problems is described. NASTRAN, with some modifications, can be used to analyze most structures that are subjected to seismic loads. A brief review of the formulation of seismic-induced structural dynamics is also presented. Two typical structural problems were selected to illustrate the application of the various methods of seismic structural analysis by the NASTRAN system.

Go, J. C.↗

Shallow lunar structure determined from the passive seismic experiment

Data relevant to the shallow structure of the moon obtained at the Apollo seismic stations are compared with previously published results of the active seismic experiments. It is concluded that the lunar surface is covered by a layer of low seismic velocity which appears to be equivalent to the lunar regolith defined previously by geological observations. This layer is underlain by a zone of distinctly higher seismic velocity at all of the Apollo landing sites. The regolith thicknesses at the Apollo 11, 12, and 15 sites are estimated from the shear-wave resonance to be 4.4, 3.7, and 4.4 m, respectively. These thicknesses and those determined at the other Apollo sites by the active seismic experiments appear to be correlated with the age determinations and the abundances of extralunar components at the sites.

Nakamura, Y.↗

Lunar seismic profiling experiment natural activity study

The Lunar Seismic Experiment Natural Activity Study has provided a unique opportunity to study the high frequency (4-20 Hz) portion to the seismic spectrum on the moon. The data obtained from the LSPE was studied to evaluate the origin and importance of the process that generates thermal moonquakes and the characteristics of the seismic scattering zone at the lunar surface. The detection of thermal moonquakes by the LSPE array made it possible to locate the sources of many events and determine that they are definitely not generated by astronaut activities but are the result of a natural process on the moon. The propagation of seismic waves in the near-surface layers was studied in a qualitative manner. In the absence of an adequate theoretical model for the propagation of seismic waves in the moon, it is not possible to assign a depth for the scattering layer. The LSPE data does define several parameters which must be satisfied by any model developed in the future.

Duennebier, F. K.↗

Intraplate seismicity and stresses in young oceanic lithosphere

A systematic study has been conducted of oceanic intraplate seismicity in the 1964-1983 period occurring in lithosphere younger than 35 million years. Detailed findings are presented on the stress in young lithosphere, depth of seismicity, intraplate events in fracture zones, seismicity distributions, and regional concentrations of seismicity. It is concluded that there is no evidence of a general transition from tensional to compressive stresses at any particular age of the lithosphere. Extensional events are located mostly in the Indian Ocean and have tensional axes oriented at large angles to the spreading direction. Compressional axes of thrust faulting events show a weak preferred orientation parallel to the spreading direction. Normal faulting events occur at greater depths and temperatures than thrust faulting events. Differential thermal contraction along fracture zones is not a significant source of intraplate seismicity.

Wiens, D. A.↗

A prediction of Mars seismicity from surface faulting

The shallow seismicity of Mars has been estimated by measurement of the total slip on faults visible on the surface of the planet throughout geologic time. Seismicity was calibrated with estimates based on surface structures on the moon and measured lunar seismicity that includes the entire seismogenic lithosphere. Results indicate that Mars is seismically active today, with a sufficient number of detectable marsquakes to allow seismic investigations of its interior.

Golombek, Matthew P.↗

Deformation of a weak subducted slab and variation of seismicity with depth

Numerical simulations of slab evolution are used here to show that a weak slab model is consistent with seismic observations. Assuming that earthquakes occur at a rate proportional to deformation rate, the observed variation with depth of seismicity rate and focal mechanisms is reproduced along with the cessation of seismicity at 670 km depth. Provided that sinking material encounters resistance at depth, the pattern of seismicity can be explained by any mechanism for deep earthquakes in which the rate of seismicity is proportional to strain rate in the slab.

Tao, Winston C.↗

Further Constraints and Uncertainties on the Deep Seismic Structure of the Moon

The Apollo Passive Seismic Experiment (APSE) consisted of four 3-component seismometers deployed between 1969 and 1972, that continuously recorded lunar ground motion until late 1977. The APSE data provide a unique opportunity for investigating the interior of a planet other than Earth, generating the most direct constraints on the elastic structure, and hence the thermal and compositional evolution of the Moon. Owing to the lack of far side moonquakes, past seismic models of the lunar interior were unable to constrain the lowermost 500 km of the interior. Recently, array methodologies aimed at detecting deep lunar seismic reflections found evidence for a lunar core, providing an elastic model of the deepest lunar interior consistent with geodetic parameters. Here we study the uncertainties in these models associated with the double array stacking of deep moonquakes for imaging deep reflectors in the Moon. We investigate the dependency of the array stacking results on a suite of parameters, including amplitude normalization assumptions, polarization filters, assumed velocity structure, and seismic phases that interfere with our desired target phases. These efforts are facilitated by the generation of synthetic seismograms at high frequencies (approx. 1Hz), allowing us to directly study the trade-offs between different parameters. We also investigate expected amplitudes of deep reflections relative to direct P and S arrivals, including predictions from arbitrarily oriented focal mechanisms in our synthetics. Results from separate versus combined station stacking help to establish the robustness of stacks. Synthetics for every path geometry of data were processed identically to that done with data. Different experiments were aimed at examining various processing assumptions, such as adding random noise to synthetics and mixing 3 components to some degree. The principal stacked energy peaks put forth in recent work persist, but their amplitude (which maps into reflector impedance contrast) and timing (which maps into reflector depth) depend on factors that are not well constrained -- most notably, the velocity structure of the overlying lunar interior. Thus, while evidence for the lunar core remains strong, the depths of imaged reflectors have associated uncertainties that will require new seismic data and observations to constrain. These results strongly advocate further investigations on the Moon to better resolve the interior (e.g., Selene missions), for the Moon apparently has a rich history of construction and evolution that is inextricably tied to that of Earth.

Lin, Pei-Ying Patty↗

Seismic Imager Space Telescope

A concept has been developed for a geostationary seismic imager (GSI), a space telescope in geostationary orbit above the Pacific coast of the Americas that would provide movies of many large earthquakes occurring in the area from Southern Chile to Southern Alaska. The GSI movies would cover a field of view as long as 300 km, at a spatial resolution of 3 to 15 m and a temporal resolution of 1 to 2 Hz, which is sufficient for accurate measurement of surface displacements and photometric changes induced by seismic waves. Computer processing of the movie images would exploit these dynamic changes to accurately measure the rapidly evolving surface waves and surface ruptures as they happen. These measurements would provide key information to advance the understanding of the mechanisms governing earthquake ruptures, and the propagation and arrest of damaging seismic waves. GSI operational strategy is to react to earthquakes detected by ground seismometers, slewing the satellite to point at the epicenters of earthquakes above a certain magnitude. Some of these earthquakes will be foreshocks of larger earthquakes; these will be observed, as the spacecraft would have been pointed in the right direction. This strategy was tested against the historical record for the Pacific coast of the Americas, from 1973 until the present. Based on the seismicity recorded during this time period, a GSI mission with a lifetime of 10 years could have been in position to observe at least 13 (22 on average) earthquakes of magnitude larger than 6, and at least one (2 on average) earthquake of magnitude larger than 7. A GSI would provide data unprecedented in its extent and temporal and spatial resolution. It would provide this data for some of the world's most seismically active regions, and do so better and at a lower cost than could be done with ground-based instrumentation. A GSI would revolutionize the understanding of earthquake dynamics, perhaps leading ultimately to effective warning capabilities, to improved management of earthquake risk, and to improved public safety policies. The position of the spacecraft, its high optical quality, large field of view, and large field of regard will make it an ideal platform for other scientific studies. The same data could be simply reused for other studies. If different data, such as multi-spectral data, is required, additional instruments could share the telescope.

Sidick, Erkin↗