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At least 217 records · Page 12

A Systematic Comparison for Consistent Scenario Development Using Microscopic Simulation Software

This study aims to explore a methodology that enables the development of consistent traffic micro simulation for emerging traffic and vehicle control technologies for improved mobility and energy efficiency across different modeling platforms. Researchers might study the same application on different platforms and have the need to benchmark across platforms. However, there lacks a systematic study on simulation software comparison, especially for emerging mobility and energy efficiency applications. For this, a systematic scenario development and evaluation approach is presented and demonstrated to compare scenarios generated in different traffic microsimulation platforms. Network-level and vehicle-level trip performance results of the traffic scenario are evaluated in three microscopic simulation platforms - VISSIM, AIMSUN, and SUMO. The results indicate that the network-level performance is consistent among the three software suites except when the demand is high, where the energy consumption performance varies.

Saroj, Abhilasha [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000191178063)↗

Transparency crucial to Paris climate scenarios—Response

King et al. raise important issues, several of which pertain to the broader policy discourse surrounding international climate negotiations and countries’ cli-mate pledges rather than the modeling conducted in our Policy Forum. We agree with King et al. that the updated Paris Agreement pledges could paint an overly optimistic picture of the future, especially if their success depends on postponing deeper reductions until after 2030. To illustrate a less-optimistic future, our Policy Forum includes scenarios showing what would happen if countries continued to implement current policies alone. Importantly, the “Current policy” scenarios in the Policy Forum result in less than a 10% chance of limiting global warming to below 2°C this century, whereas the “Updated pledges” scenarios result in at least a 33% chance of achieving the same temperature goal. Additional policy measures could help bridge emission gaps between current policies, updated pledges, and the global emission levels needed to cost-effectively achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate goals (1).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

HIPSTER (Harmonized Impacts across Products, Scenarios, and Technologies for Environmental and Resource metrics) [SWR-24-17]

Development of a prototype, code-based life cycle assessment framework, the Harmonized Impacts across Products, Scenarios, and Technologies for Environmental and Resource metrics (HIPSTER), to coherently assess outputs of prospective NREL models across environmental and resource use metrics. Eventually, HIPSTER is aimed to also cover socioeconomic and justice metrics. At present, NREL model scenario impact assessments are performed incoherently, as they as based on varying assumptions and inputs, specifically life cycle inventories, and cover different system boundaries. HIPSTER was created to align the assumptions and boundaries with those of cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment. In FY22, HIPSTER was successfully applied using scenarios from the ReEDS™ model, NREL's flagship capacity expansion model resulting in cradle-to-grace time-series life cycle impacts across LCA midpoints and resource use metrics.

Ghosh, Tapajyoti↗

Charging Hub Scenario Sheet Screenshot

The Excel-based CHECT tool estimates the LCOC ($/kWh) by charger type (Level 1, Level 2, and DC fast charging) for a given charging hub scenario. CHECT requires users to input certain charging hub scenario parameters, including the number of chargers, daily utilization, and charger replacement frequency by charger type. Additional inputs such as the charging schedule, local utility rates, capital/operational costs, and financial inputs can be customized by the user, or the tool can generate results using appropriate default values from literature for the charging hub scenario and service location(s). Using the above inputs, CHECT performs a robust techno-economic analysis to generate the LCOC by charger type, broken down by cost category (e.g., capital, operational, utility, taxes) for various combinations of charging hub types (multiunit dwelling or public) and ownership models (residential, utility, or private company). It also outputs the annual discounted cash flows and determines the most sensitive input variables. In addition, the tool allows users to easily compare the LCOC across various ownership models or across different states.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Detectability of Varied Hybridization Scenarios Using Genome-Scale Hybrid Detection Methods

Hybridization events complicate the accurate reconstruction of phylogenies, as they lead to patterns of genetic heritability that are unexpected under traditional, bifurcating models of species trees. This phenomenon has led to the development of methods to infer these varied hybridization events, both methods that reconstruct networks directly, as well as summary methods that predict individual hybridization events from a subset of taxa. However, a lack of empirical comparisons between methods – especially those pertaining to large networks with varied hybridization scenarios – hinders their practical use. Here, we provide a comprehensive review of popular summary methods: TICR, MSCquartets, HyDe, Patterson’s D-Statistic (ABBA-BABA), D3, and Dp. TICR and MSCquartets are based on quartet concordance factors gathered from gene tree topologies and HyDe, Patterson’s D-Statistic, D3, and Dp use site pattern frequencies to identify hybridization events between sets of three taxa. We then use simulated data to address questions of method accuracy and ideal use scenarios by testing methods against complex networks which depict gene flow events that differ in depth (timing), quantity (single vs. multiple, overlapping hybridizations), and rate of gene flow (γ). We find that deeper or multiple hybridization events may introduce noise and weaken the signal of hybridization, leading to higher relative false negative rates across all methods. Despite some forms of hybridization eluding quartet-based detection methods, MSCquartets displays high precision in most scenarios. While HyDe results in high false negative rates when tested on hybridizations involving extinct or unsampled ghost lineages, HyDe is the only method able to identify the direction of hybridization, distinguishing the source parental lineages from recipient hybrid lineages. Lastly, we test the methods on a dataset of ultraconserved elements from the bee subfamily Nomiinae, finding possible hybridization events between clades which correspond to regions of poor support in the species tree estimated in a previous study.

Bjorner, Marianne B.↗

rmap: An R package to plot and compare tabular data on customizable maps across scenarios and time

`rmap` is an R package that allows users to easily plot tabular data (CSV or R data frames) on maps without any Geographic Information Systems (GIS) knowledge. Maps produced by `rmap` are `ggplot` objects and thus capitalize on the flexibility and advancements of the `ggplot2` package and all elements of each map are thus fully customizable. Additionally `rmap` automatically detects and produces comparison maps if the data has multiple scenarios or time periods as well as animations for time series data. Advanced users can load their own shapefiles if desired. `rmap` comes with a range of pre-built color palettes but users can also provide any `R` color palette or create their own as needed. Four different legend types are available to highlight different kinds of data distributions. The input spatial data can be both gridded or polygon data. `rmap` is desgined in particular for comparing spatial data across scenarios and time periods and comes preloaded with standard country, state, and basin maps as well as custom maps compatible with the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) spatial boundaries. `rmap` has a growing number of users and its products have been used in multiple multisector dynamics publications as well as a required dependency in other R packages such as `rfasst` and `metis`. `rmap's` automatic processing of tabular data using pre-built map selection, difference map calculations, faceting, and animations offers unique functionality which makes it a powerful and yet simple tool for users looking to explore multi-sector, multi-scenario data across space and time.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Cambium 2022 Scenario Descriptions and Documentation

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) Cambium data sets are annually released sets of simulated hourly emission, cost, and operational data for a range of modeled futures of the U.S. electric sector with metrics designed to be useful for long-term decision making. The 2022 Cambium data set is the third annual release. The data sets are a companion product to NREL’s Standard Scenarios, which are likewise released annually and are a set of projections of how the U.S. electric sector could evolve across a suite of different potential futures, but covering more scenarios with less temporal granularity. In this documentation, we describe Cambium 2022’s scenarios (Section 3), define the metrics (Section 5), and document the Cambium-specific methods for calculating those metrics (Section 6).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Scenarios of Nuclear Energy Use in the United States for the 21st Century

The uncertainty in the cost of nuclear energy coinciding with efforts to address climate change are contributing to the uncertainty in the future role of nuclear energy in the US electricity system and the response to addressing global climate change. Sensitivity cases of alternative nuclear capital costs, ranging from 2600 to 6600 $\$ $/kW, were investigated with scenarios of alternative carbon mitigation policies, including 50, 100, and 150 $\$ $/tCO 2 carbon tax cases and economy-wide net-zero goals by 2050, 2060, and 2070 for the US. The resulting US nuclear power capacity ranged from 130 to 240 GW in 2050 and 90 to 450 GW in 2100 from nuclear cost sensitivity cases without carbon mitigation policies. Imposing policies to achieve the decarbonization of electricity and net-zero emission goals increased the range of nuclear power capacity from 190 to 460 GW in 2050 and 210 to 850 GW by 2100, where the range is from the low and high nuclear cost cases. Carbon penalties beyond 100 $\$ $/tCO 2 had a diminishing role on the expansion of nuclear power as the electricity sector becomes fully decarbonized. The 50 $\$ $/tCO 2 tax had the nuclear capital cost equivalency of 1000 $\$ $/kW reduction, while the 100 $\$ $/tCO 2 tax had the equivalency of 2000 $\$ $/kW reduction. Net-zero goals increased the contribution of nuclear power due to the increase in total electricity demand, but the delay in the timing of net-zero did not significantly affect the role of nuclear in the long-term. All net-zero goals were similar in their energy system impact with resulting carbon tax levels reaching 300 $\$ $/tCO 2 . Electricity is fully decarbonized in the net-zero scenarios and carbon pricing beyond 100 to 150 $\$ $/tCO 2 had little influence on the additional deployment of nuclear power. Regardless of the carbon policy, however, nuclear capital cost reductions had a clear and pronounced impact on the expanded deployment of nuclear power under all scenarios.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

FY23 Report on Water NSTF Testing at Two-Phase Conditions: Off-normal Scenarios

Under support from the Department of Energy (DOE) and the Office of Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART), a large-scale test facility has been constructed at Argonne National Laboratory to generate NQA-1 qualified validation data for passive decay heat removal systems in advanced reactors. The Natural convection Shutdown heat removal Test Facility (NSTF) reflects key features of a ½ scale, water-based, Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) and is intended to study the behavior, bound performance, and ultimately guide design decisions for passive decay heat removal systems for advanced reactors. In addition to the experimental activities detailed in this report, a supportive computational modeling effort is on-going which has been demonstrated to significantly strengthen the experimental program while also improving accuracy of the computer models. Together these create a mutually beneficial relationship integral to meeting the overall program objective of examining the heat removal performance of the RCCS concept. This report details the experimental activities and upgrades performed during the program’s fifth year of water-based operation. The theme of this year of testing was examining off-normal scenarios. In practice, that meant examining scenarios with blockages or other design basis conditions. From a maintenance and capability standpoint that meant assessing valving options for implementing blockages, assessing drain and refill capabilities, and ensuring in all cases that operators could safely, efficiently, and repeatably bring the facility to an off-normal condition and return it to the normal operating state. In one notable case, no solution existed, nor was a solution commercially available, that met the facility needs for implementing blockages within the two-phase region of the chimney. A valve and feedthrough were custom-designed for NSTF to operate submerged in saturated water while being safely actuated from outside the tank. The fifth year of testing included eight matrix tests consisting of 162 hours of active heating, 9,735 kWh of electrical heating, with seven tests classified as Accepted per NQA-1 and one as Trending. All matrix tests were performed at two-phase flow conditions. The power parametric series from previous years was extended to include another scenario with a decay load equivalent to 1.75 MWt, full scale, further resolving the system flow oscillation response as a function of input power. A depletion test was performed to extend previous work and examine the system’s approach to stagnation and geysering that were not previously observed. This test began at an initial inventory level of 50%, prototypic power of 2.1 MWt, and employed an accelerated drain of 0.75 gpm plus boiloff until stagnation conditions were achieved and multiple geysering events were recorded. Further exploring the geysering phenomenon was a separate effects test examining static boiling in the risers and chimney. This static boiling test was performed at 48 kWe, a higher power than testing in the previous year, and included enhancements to the drain system to remove inventory in a better-controlled and more reliable manner. Two tests were performed, at prototypic conditions of 1.4 MWt and 2.4 MWt, respectively, examining the system response to throttled conditions in the singlephase region of the piping. A ball valve immediately before he riser inlet header was increasingly throttled, progressing the system through a repeatable pattern of two-phase oscillations and stable regimes before ultimately inducing stagnation and geysering. Concluding the year, two tests were performed at baseline conditions of 70% initial inventory level and 2.1 MWt of prototypic decay heat to examine both repeatability and the response to throttling within the two-phase region, at the inventory tank inlet using the custom valve mentioned above. The first such test repeated transient operating conditions and revealed significant sensitivity t

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Cambium 2024 Scenario Descriptions and Documentation

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Cambium data sets are annually released sets of simulated hourly data for a range of modeled futures of the U.S. electric sector with metrics designed to be useful for long-term decision- making. The 2024 Cambium data set is the fifth annual release. The data sets are a companion product to NREL's Standard Scenarios, which are likewise released annually and are a set of projections of how the U.S. electric sector could evolve across a suite of different potential futures, but covering more scenarios with less temporal granularity. Information about Cambium and related publications can be found at https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/cambium.html, and the Cambium data sets can be viewed and downloaded at https://scenarioviewer.nrel.gov/. In this documentation, we describe Cambium 2024's scenarios, define the metrics, and document the Cambium-specific methods for calculating those metrics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Zero Trust Strategies for Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Detection Systems: D.1 Cyber Scenarios

The evolving landscape of cybersecurity necessitates a paradigm shift to a Zero Trust (ZT) model, which assumes breaches and continuously verifies trust. This approach reshapes how trust boundaries are established, focusing on identities, devices, networks, applications, and data, rather than solely relying on perimeter defenses such as firewalls. Central to this transformation is the National Institute of Standards and Technology's (NIST) Special Publication 800-207, outlining the Zero Trust Architecture (ZTA), along with Executive Order 14028, which mandates federal agencies to adopt ZT principles. Complementary to these efforts, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) developed the Zero Trust Maturity Model (ZTMM), providing a framework with five pillars and three cross-cutting capabilities to guide agencies toward enhanced cybersecurity maturity. In support of these initiatives, the DHS Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Office (CWMD) is applying ZT principles to secure Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) detection systems. Recognizing the diverse deployment models and network connectivity of these systems—from stationary, non-networked units to mobile, cloud-connected devices—the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is developing cybersecurity scenarios specifically for CBRN environments. These scenarios examine various configurations and technological capabilities, offering insights into the application of ZTMM pillars in enhancing the security postures of CBRN devices. The cybersecurity scenarios presented by PNNL are hypothetical, crafted to explore theoretical situations and stimulate discussion on the potential use or compromise of CBRN detection systems in varied contexts. These narratives are illustrative and do not reference any real events or actual networks. Instead, they employ generalized reference models to highlight concepts and potential issues within CBRN security, focusing on how Zero Trust strategies can be adapted to address these challenges effectively.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Global land use for 2015-2100 at 0.05° resolution under diverse socioeconomic and climate scenarios

Global future land use (LU) is an important input for Earth system models for projecting Earth system dynamics and is critical for many modeling studies on future global change. Here we generated a new global gridded LU dataset using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) and a land use spatial downscaling model, named Demeter, under the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. Compared to existing similar datasets, the presented dataset has a higher spatial resolution (0.05°×0.05°) and spreads under a more comprehensive set of SSP-RCP scenarios (in total 15 scenarios), and considers uncertainties from the forcing climates. We compared our dataset with the Land Use Harmonization version 2 (LUH2) dataset and found our results are in general spatially consistent with LUH2. The presented dataset will be useful for global Earth system modeling studies, especially for the analysis of the impacts of land use and land cover change and socioeconomics, as well as the characterizing the uncertainties associated with these impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Process-based modeling of soil nitrous oxide emissions from United States corn fields under different management and climate scenarios coupled with evaluation using regional estimates

Direct emissions of soil nitrous oxide during a growing season (N 2 O gs ) can be quantified with process-based models considering interactions between management, climate, and soil moisture when key data are available. We used an adapted “parameterized CENTURY/DAYCENT-model” ( p CENTURY) calibrated with crop growth and soil organic matter decay coefficients at the county-level for the estimation of N 2 O gs in the United States Corn Belt. Model estimated N 2 O-emissions from corn-based biofuels scenarios considering crop rotation, fertilizer inputs, tillage, and weather were compared against meta-summary of field observations from 55 studies. Both model and meta-summary ranked N 2 O gs -emissions to be corn > wheat > soybean phase while model likely underestimated cover crop N 2 O gs -emissions. The N 2 O gs -emissions and the associated emission factors (EFs) were modeled and summarized to be greater after anhydrous ammonia than urea application and from conventional tilled than non-tilled fields. Modeled and observed N 2 O gs -emissions after organic and inorganic fertilizer amendment did not differ due to high variability associated with the treatments. However, the organic fertilizer associated EFs were greater according to meta-summary data because of N input rates. Regionalized weather scenarios indicate hotspots for N 2 O gs -emissions can occur where crop N uptake is limited during dry years and in eastern states also during normal or wet seasons. The p CENTURY-derived N 2 O gs EFs (0.91 ± 0.19%) for counties investigated were only slightly lower than literature (1.07 ± 0.57%) or Tier-1 (1%) values. Our preliminary evaluation of regional soil moisture estimates showed reasonable agreement between monthly soil moisture estimates and the North American Soil Moisture Dataset during the growing season, but overestimation of soil moisture in winter-spring can influence the estimates of annual N 2 O emissions so future work is needed to calibrate soil moisture-associated model parameters. Our work provided scenario-based estimates of climate and management impacts on soil N 2 O gs -emissions together with valuable spatial insights into EFs that will be improved by more accurate information of fertilizer inputs and more temporally refined model evaluation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Greenhouse Gas Impact of Algal Bio-Crude Production for a Range of CO2 Supply Scenarios

Refined bio-crude production from hydrothermal liquefaction of algae holds the potential to replace fossil-based conventional liquid fuels. The microalgae act as natural carbon sequestrators by consuming CO2. However, this absorbed CO2 is released to the atmosphere during the combustion of the bio-crude. Thus, the life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of refined bio-crude are linked to the production and supply of the materials involved and the process energy demands. One prominent raw material is CO2, which is the main source of carbon for algae and the subsequent products. The emissions associated with the supply of CO2 can have a considerable impact on the sustainability of the algae-based refined bio-crude production process. Furthermore, the diurnal algae growth cycle complicates the CO2 supply scenarios. Traditionally, studies have relied on CO2 supplied from existing power plants. However, there is potential for building natural gas or biomass-based power plants with the primary aim of supplying CO2 to the biorefinery. Alternately, a direct air capture (DAC) process can extract CO2 directly from the air. The life-cycle GHG emissions associated with the production of refined bio-crude through hydrothermal liquefaction of algae are presented in this study. Different CO2 supply scenarios, including existing fossil fuel power plants and purpose-built CO2 sources, are compared. The integration of the CO2 sources with the algal biorefinery is also presented. The CO2 supply from biomass-based power plants has the highest potential for GHG reduction, with a GHG footprint of −57 g CO2 eq./MJ refined bio-crude. The CO2 supply from the DAC process has a GHG footprint of 49 CO2 eq./MJ refined bio-crude, which is very similar to the scenario that considers the supply of CO2 from an existing conventional natural gas-based plant and takes credit for the carbon utilization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Stratospheric aerosol forcing for CMIP7 – Part 1: optical properties for pre-industrial, historical, and scenario simulations

Stratospheric aerosols, most of which originate from explosive volcanic sulfur emissions into the stratosphere, are a key natural driver of climate variability. They are thus a forcing provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Climate Forcings Task Team to climate modelling groups participating in phase 7 of CMIP. For the historical period, we provide two datasets covering 1750–2023: (i) a volcanic upper tropospheric-stratospheric sulfur emission dataset, documented in a companion paper; and (ii) a stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical property dataset, documented in this paper. For the satellite era (from 1979 onwards), stratospheric aerosol optical properties are derived from the Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC) dataset. For the pre-satellite era (1750–1978), optical properties are derived from our volcanic SO 2 emission dataset using a new version of the reduced-complexity volcanic aerosol model Easy Volcanic Aerosol (Height) (EVA_H v2). A background, non-volcanic stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1998–2001 period with a trend over 1850–1978 accounting for increasing anthropogenic aerosols. A monthly stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1850–2021 average for both pre-industrial and scenario (future) simulations, with a 9-year ramp over 2022–2030 for scenario simulations to ensure a smooth transition from the historical period. CMIP7 simulations should use version 2.2.1 of our pre-industrial and historical datasets, and version 2.2.2 of our scenario dataset. Our methodology to produce historical aerosol optical properties significantly differs from CMIP6 for the pre-satellite era, and the resulting forcings in turn largely differ. In particular, the CMIP6 dataset was mostly based on the sparse and uncertain pyrheliometer record, which resulted in strongly underrepresented emissions from small-to-moderate magnitude eruptions. The resulting bias is addressed in CMIP7, which is entirely emission-derived in the pre-satellite era and uses more recent ice-core-based volcanic sulfur emission inventories than CMIP6. Our approach results in an overall larger volcanic aerosol forcing for CMIP7, with the 1850–2014 mean mid-visible global mean stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) in CMIP7 (0.0138) being 29 % higher than in CMIP6 (0.0107). The pre-industrial mean of the same variable is 26 % higher in CMIP7 (0.0135, derived from the historical 1850–2021) than CMIP6 (0.0107, derived from the historical 1850–2014 mean). Using a reduced-complexity climate model, we simulate a global mean surface temperature that is 0.07 °C colder for 1850–1900 when using the CMIP7 dataset instead of CMIP6, whereas 2000–2014 is 0.03 °C warmer in CMIP7. Our dataset also exhibits lower forcing for 1960–1980, resulting in temperatures 0.06 °C warmer when averaged over 1960–1990, a period for which CMIP6 climate models exhibit a cold bias. Given the large uncertainties characterizing the dataset, in particular for the pre-satellite era, we advise against treating the CMIP7 or CMIP6 dataset as uniquely superior for any specific year and highlight the need for further evaluation. We conclude the study by discussing sources of uncertainty for the dataset, future research avenues to improve it, as well as requirements to operationalize the production of the dataset, i.e. extend it and update it on an annual basis instead of every 5–7 years following CMIP cycles.

Aubry, Thomas J. [Univ. of Exeter, Devon (United K↗

3D Play Fairway Analysis for Examining of Superhot Reservoir Production Scenarios

The DEEPEN (DE-risking Exploration for geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments) project was a multi-laboratory, international effort to reduce uncertainty and improve resource characterization in superhot geothermal systems. Building on this foundation, this work advances open-source tools designed to lower the exploration risk and cost of superhot geothermal projects while promoting transparency, reproducibility, and efficiency in exploration workflows. These tools are being tested at two key sites: (1) the Nesjavellir Geothermal Area in Iceland, where the Icelandic Deep Drilling Project (IDDP) will drill its third well, and (2) Newberry Volcano in Oregon, USA, where Mazama Energy will pilot the first superhot enhanced geothermal system (EGS). A major outcome is the creation of a modular, open-source Python framework for play fairway analysis (PFA) in 2D and 3D, called geoPFA. The PFA workflow has been expanded to produce pseudo conceptual models, and will soon be refined to assess reservoir components through integration with the thermo-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical (THMC) simulator TReactMech, to enable iterative coupling between PFA and THMC models, improving characterization of superhot systems. All three of the Icelandic Deep Drilling Project's production scenarios were analyzed via this framework: (1) a superhot deep injection well paired with conventional production wells at Nesjavellir, (2) a superhot deep production well at Nesjavellir, and (3) superhot enhanced geothermal system at Newberry Volcano. This analysis provides useful insights around conceptual modeling of these production scenarios, helping to inform decisions around which scenario is best suited for which types of environments.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Technology assessment of future intercity passenger transportation systems. Volume 4: Scenarios

Four background scenarios that relate to alternative states of society in the next 25 to 50 years are described. The scenarios were developed for use in analyzing and evaluating alternative future intercity transportation technologies. The scenarios are based, in part, on discussions contained in the issue papers and, in part, on separate analysis of social and economic trends considered relevant for the evolution of intercity transportation.

Source record↗

Forecast of Future Aviation Fuels. Part 1: Scenarios

A preliminary set of scenarios is described for depicting the air transport industry as it grows and changes, up to the year 2025. This provides the background for predicting the needs for future aviation fuels to meet the requirements of the industry as new basic sources, such as oil shale and coal, which are utilized to supplement petroleum. Five scenarios are written to encompass a range of futures from a serious resource-constrained economy to a continuous and optimistic economic growth. A unique feature is the choice of one immediate range scenario which is based on a serious interruption of economic growth occasioned by an energy shortfall. This is presumed to occur due to lags in starting a synfuels program.

English, J. M.↗