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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

(U) Correlated Sampling Using Batch Statistics to Reduce the Uncertainty of Combinations of KSEN Outputs with MCNP6

The relative sensitivity of k eff to the densities of nuclides in a material are combined to compute relative sensitivities to other inputs. When computed in a single Monte Carlo run, the nuclide density sensitivities are correlated, and the statistical uncertainties propagated to other inputs will be incorrect unless those correlations are accounted for. Equations are presented to apply correlated sampling using batch statistics for the sum of an arbitrary number of random tallies and the difference of two random tallies when each is multiplied by a different constant. When correlated sampling is used on a recent benchmark evaluation, the correct statistical uncertainties for certain combinations of sensitivities are dramatically smaller than the incorrect uncertainties. A user-controlled, regular output of MCNP6’s KSEN sensitivities that allows batch statistics to be applied to combinations would be extremely valuable.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evidence of galaxy assembly bias in SDSS DR7 galaxy samples from count statistics

We present observational constraints on the galaxy–halo connection, focusing particularly on galaxy assembly bias from a novel combination of counts-in-cylinders statistics, P(N CIC ), with the standard measurements of the projected two-point correlation function w p (r p ), and number density n gal of galaxies. We measure n gal , w p (r p ), and P(N CIC ) for volume-limited, luminosity-threshold samples of galaxies selected from SDSS DR7, and use them to constrain halo occupation distribution (HOD) models, including a model in which galaxy occupation depends upon a secondary halo property, namely halo concentration. We detect significant positive central assembly bias for the M r < -20.0 and M r <-19.5 samples. Central galaxies preferentially reside within haloes of high concentration at fixed mass. Positive central assembly bias is also favoured in the M r < -20.5 and M r < -19.0 samples. We find no evidence of central assembly bias in the M r < -21.0 sample. We observe only a marginal preference for negative satellite assembly bias in the M r < -20.0 and M r < -19.0 samples, and non-zero satellite assembly bias is not indicated in other samples. Our findings underscore the necessity of accounting for galaxy assembly bias when interpreting galaxy survey data, and demonstrate the potential of count statistics in extracting information from the spatial distribution of galaxies, which could be applied to both galaxy–halo connection studies and cosmological analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Closeout report for statistics for environmental sampling

This Project Closure Report is the final project document required to complete the project record and to close the project in the office’s web-based project management system. This report is for use by senior management to assess major project outcomes and their impact, identify best practices and other useful insights for future projects, and identify any open issues meriting attention. In accordance with DOE Order 243.1B, Records Management Program, this report will be managed in accordance with all prescribed laws, regulations, directives, and processes to ensure adequate and proper documentation of DOE’s organizations, missions, functions, policies, and decisions (See 44 U.S.C., Chapters 21, 29, 31, 33, and 35; 36 CFR Subchapter B, Records Management, and all applicable National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) mandated guidance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uniform Beam Simulation Technique for Beam Scans and Machine Learning Studies at Fermilab

Fermilab's neutrino facilities, including NuMI and the upcoming LBNF, use proton beams to produce positively and negatively charged pions and kaons. Detailed simulations are necessary to study particle interactions and beam propagation. To efficiently analyze beam scan effects, we propose a technique to generate multiple simulation samples with high statistics. These samples can be used to develop beamline simulation based machine learning applications. In this technique, we generate a uniformly distributed single simulation data sample. We calculate Gaussian weights for each beam configurations and apply them to post-processing measurements. In this poster, we demonstrate the proposed simulation technique. This technique reduces simulation time and computing resources significantly.

Wickremasinghe, Athula↗
DOE OSTI2015

Multifidelity importance sampling

Estimating statistics of model outputs with the Monte Carlo method usually requires a large number of model evaluations. This leads to long runtimes if the model is expensive to evaluate. Importance sampling is one method that can lead to a reduction in the number of model evaluations. Importance sampling uses a biasing distribution to sample the model more efficiently, but generating such a biasing distribution can be difficult and usually also requires model evaluations. A different strategy to speed up Monte Carlo sampling is to replace the computationally expensive high-fidelity model with a computationally cheap surrogate model; however, because the surrogate model outputs are only approximations of the high-fidelity model outputs, the estimate obtained using a surrogate model is in general biased with respect to the estimate obtained using the high-fidelity model. We introduce a multifidelity importance sampling (MFIS) method, which combines evaluations of both the high-fidelity and a surrogate model. It uses a surrogate model to facilitate the construction of the biasing distribution, but relies on a small number of evaluations of the high-fidelity model to derive an unbiased estimate of the statistics of interest. We prove that the MFIS estimate is unbiased even in the absence of accuracy guarantees on the surrogate model itself. The MFIS method can be used with any type of surrogate model, such as projection-based reduced-order models and data-fit models. Moreover, the MFIS method is applicable to black-box models, i.e., where only inputs and the corresponding outputs of the high-fidelity and the surrogate model are available but not the details of the models themselves. We demonstrate on nonlinear and time-dependent problems that our MFIS method achieves speedups of up to several orders of magnitude compared to Monte Carlo with importance sampling that uses the high-fidelity model only.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Polarized Photocathodes development for the EIC: Optimizing Spin and Quantum Efficiency

GaAs/GaAsP superlattice photocathodes play a critical role for producing highly polarized electron beams for the Electron-Ion Collider (EIC) at Brookhaven National Laboratory. The electron pre-injector for the EIC requires electron bunches with high bunch charge (1-2 nC) and high polarization, from GaAs-based superlattice photocathode. Herein, we have systematically investigated a range of GaAs/GaAsP superlattice photocathodes fabricated via molecular beam epitaxy (MBE) and metal-organic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD). Through optimization of pre-cleaning procedures and surface doping conditions, we aim to identify the most promising photocathode configurations for future EIC operations. To enhance the quantum efficiency (QE), a Distributed Bragg Reflector structure is frequently incorporated beneath the superlattice. While this approach effectively increases QE, it also introduces additional complexities that can adversely influence spin polarization and the spectral response at specific laser wavelengths. This note provides an overview of superlattice GaAs development and outlines the EIC team’s ongoing efforts to address related challenges and advance high-performance photocathode development tailored for the EIC. Over five years of multi-institutional collaboration and measurements of about 50 SL-GaAs samples, our analysis presents statistics on samples exhibiting high ESP and high QE. It will help to set the initial ESP requirements for the EIC project.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improving statistical precision in Monte Carlo samples with negative weights via reweighting and uncertainty quantification

High statistical precision is critical for Monte Carlo (MC) samples in high energy physics and is degraded by negatively weighted events. This paper investigates a procedure to learn the relationship between the negative and positive weight distributions of any sample, allowing the reduction of statistical uncertainty by reweighting kinematically equivalent events with the same sign. A robust uncertainty quantification method is required for the practical application of such method. Two methods for the estimation of the reweighting uncertainty are developed: one at the event and another one at the final observable level. The latter method is strongly favored. The gains in statistical precision are then quantified. The method is demonstrated on Sherpa vector boson plus jets samples when using all generated events and when restricted to the signal region of a mock analysis. It is demonstrated to significantly reduce stochastic behavior in sparse MC samples while decreasing the overall uncertainty with a sufficiently well-known reweighting function.

Monte Carlo methods↗
DOE OSTI2020

Collective mode Brownian dynamics: A method for fast relaxation of statistical ensembles

Sampling equilibrium configurations of correlated systems of particles with long relaxation times (e.g., polymeric solutions) using conventional molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo methods can be challenging. This is especially true for systems with complicated, extended bond network topologies and other interactions that make the use and design of specialized relaxation protocols infeasible. We introduce a method based on Brownian dynamics simulations that can reduce the computational time it takes to reach equilibrium and draw decorrelated samples. Importantly, the method is completely agnostic to the particle configuration and the specifics of interparticle forces. In particular, we develop a mobility matrix that excites non-local, collective motion of N particles and can be computed efficiently in $\mathcal{O}(N)$ time. Particle motion in this scheme is computed by integrating the overdamped Langevin equation with an Euler–Maruyama scheme, in which Brownian displacements are drawn efficiently using a low-rank representation of the mobility matrix in position and wave space. We demonstrate the efficacy of the method with various examples from the realm of soft condensed matter and release a massively parallel implementation of the code as a plugin for the open-source package HOOMD-blue [J. A. Anderson et al., J. Comput. Phys. 227, 5342 (2008) and J. Glaser et al., Comput. Phys. Commun. 192, 97 (2015)] which runs on graphics processing units

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nonparametric Multiparticle Set Methods for Interpreting Environmental Samples

Collection and analysis of environmental samples is commonly used by a range of stakeholders in nuclear safeguards and security contexts. While the ubiquity of samples and their transport in the environment allow regular collection, developing and demonstrating methods for analyzing these samples is difficult. In this work, an environmental sample consists of a set of one or more individual particles. Recent advances in reactor simulation have allowed us to generate data that are more representative of real-world environmental samples, enabling statistically defensible method development and testing. The most notable of these advances is a drastic increase in the number of material depletion regions, which allows our simulations to capture the variation in isotopic composition seen at length scales consistent with environmental samples. Traditional approaches for handling multiparticle samples treat each particle in the sample individually, estimating the quantity of interest (e.g., core-average burnup) resulting from measurement and analysis of signatures (e.g., nuclide assays) from each individual particle. Individual estimates are then averaged to generate a single estimate of the quantity of interest over the entire sample. In this presentation, we introduce two novel approaches for interpreting environmental samples that comprise of multiple particles: (1) the Quantile-Quantile Comparator, which uses a multivariate generalization of quantile-quantile plots for comparing unknown statistical distributions, and (2) the Set Transformer, an attention-based neural network module designed to model interactions among elements (particles) in the input set (sample). Statistically representative sampling cannot be guaranteed as samples are passively collected and are beholden to what particles are available in the environment. These new analysis methods for set-input problems are expected to be more robust than traditional approaches to issues of sampling bias where particles are not uniformly distributed throughout regions of interest, as well as generally outperform traditional approaches by jointly considering all elements in the set. We will present results comparing the performance of traditional single particle approaches and the novel Quantile-Quantile Comparator and Set Transformer for interpretation of simulated environmental samples.

Phathanapirom, Birdy↗
DOE OSTI2015

Prospects of charmonium studies in the Belle-II experiment

TheBelle-II experiment at the SuperKEKB super-B factorywill begin data acquisition in 2016, the expected integrated luminosity being 50 ab{sup -1}. A statistical data sample of record volume 50 times as large as that of the statistical data sample accumulated earlier at the Belle detector will make it possible to measure precisely the parameters of new exotic states discovered recently at B factories and to clarify the origin of these states.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Geant4 simulation for a study of a possible use of carbon ions pencil beam for the treatment of ocular melanomas with the active scanning system at CNAO Centre

The aim of this work is to validate the Geant4 application reproducing the CNAO (National Centre for Oncological Hadrontherapy) beamline and to study of a possible use of carbon ion pencil beams for the treatment of ocular melanomas at the CNAO Centre. The promising aspect of carbon ions radiotherapy for the treatment of this disease lies in its superior relative radiobiological effectiveness (RBE). The Monte Carlo Geant4 toolkit is used to simulate the complete CNAO extraction beamline, with the active and passive components along it. A human eye modeled detector, including a realistic target tumor volume, is used as target. Cross check with previous studies at CNAO using protons allows comparisons on possible benefits on using such a technique with respect to proton beams. Before the eye-detector irradiation a validation of the Geant4 simulation with CNAO experimental data is carried out with both carbon ions and protons. Important beam parameters such as the transverse FWHM and scanned radiation field 's uniformity are tested within the simulation and compared with experimental measurements at CNAO Centre. The physical processes involved in secondary particles generation by carbon ions and protons in the eye-detector are reproduced to take into account the additional dose to the primary beam given to irradiated eye's tissues. A study of beam shaping is carried out to produce a uniform 3D dose distribution (shaped on the tumor) by the use of a spread out Bragg peak. The eye-detector is then irradiated through a two dimensional transverse beam scan at different depths. In the use case the eye-detector is rotated of an angle of 40 deg. in the vertical direction, in order to mis-align the tumor from healthy tissues in front of it. The treatment uniformity on the tumor in the eye-detector is tested. For a more quantitative description of the deposited dose in the eye-detector and for the evaluation of the ratio between the dose deposited in the tumor and the other eye components, proton and carbon DVHs (Dose Volume Histograms) are compared. A high statistics simulated sample is used to minimize statistical errors. In the simulation a new particle generation method is developed in order to reproduce the experimental treatment plan by importing the DICOM RT-PLAN file, which contains all the information on the irradiation geometries and sequences (treatment plan parameters). Conclusions Even further validations must be done, the good results so far obtained by this work point out and confirm the possibility of using carbon ions delivered with active scanning beams to treat the ocular melanoma.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2012

Multivariate Statistical Analysis of Water Chemistry in Evaluating the Origin of Contamination in Many Devils Wash, Shiprock, New Mexico

This report evaluates the chemistry of seep water occurring in three desert drainages near Shiprock, New Mexico: Many Devils Wash, Salt Creek Wash, and Eagle Nest Arroyo. Through the use of geochemical plotting tools and multivariate statistical analysis techniques, analytical results of samples collected from the three drainages are compared with the groundwater chemistry at a former uranium mill in the Shiprock area (the Shiprock site), managed by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management. The objective of this study was to determine, based on the water chemistry of the samples, if statistically significant patterns or groupings are apparent between the sample populations and, if so, whether there are any reasonable explanations for those groupings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

DESI 2024 II: sample definitions, characteristics, and two-point clustering statistics

We present the samples of galaxies and quasars used for DESI 2024 cosmological analyses, drawn from the DESI Data Release 1 (DR1). We describe the construction of largescale structure (LSS) catalogs from these samples, which include matched sets of synthetic reference ‘randoms’ and weights that account for variations in the observed density of the samples due to experimental design and varying instrument performance. We detail how we correct for variations in observational completeness, the input ‘target’ densities due to imaging systematics, and the ability to confidently measure redshifts from DESI spectra. We then summarize how remaining uncertainties in the corrections can be translated to systematic uncertainties for particular analyses. We describe the weights added to maximize the signalto-noise of DESI DR1 2-point clustering measurements. We detail measurement pipelines applied to the LSS catalogs that obtain 2-point clustering measurements in configuration and Fourier space. The resulting 2-point measurements depend on window functions and normalization constraints particular to each sample, and we present the corrections required to match models to the data. We compare the configuration- and Fourier-space 2-point clustering of the data samples to that recovered from simulations of DESI DR1 and find they are, generally, in statistical agreement to within 2% in the inferred real-space over-density field. The LSS catalogs, 2-point measurements, and their covariance matrices will be released publicly with DESI DR1.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

The G‐JF Thermostat for Accurate Configurational Sampling in Soft‐Matter Simulations

Abstract We implement the statistically sound G‐JF thermostat for Langevin dynamics simulations into the ESPResSo molecular package for large‐scale simulations of soft‐matter systems. The implemented integration method is tested against the integrator currently used by the molecular package in simulations of a fluid bilayer membrane. While the latter exhibits deviations in the sampling statistics that increase with the integration time step dt , the former reproduces near‐correct configurational statistics for all dt within the stability range of the simulations. We conclude that, with very modest revisions to existing codes, one can significantly improve the performance of statistical sampling using Langevin thermostats.

Arad, Evyatar↗
DOE OSTI2015

Nested sampling of isobaric phase space for the direct evaluation of the isothermal-isobaric partition function of atomic systems

Nested Sampling (NS) is a powerful athermal statistical mechanical sampling technique that directly calculates the partition function, and hence gives access to all thermodynamic quantities in absolute terms, including absolute free energies and absolute entropies. NS has been used predominately to compute the canonical (NVT) partition function. Although NS has recently been used to obtain the isothermal-isobaric (NPT) partition function of the hard sphere model, a general approach to the computation of the NPT partition function has yet to be developed. Here, we describe an isobaric NS (IBNS) method which allows for the computation of the NPT partition function of any atomic system. We demonstrate IBNS on two finite Lennard-Jones systems and confirm the results through comparison to parallel tempering Monte Carlo. Temperature-entropy plots are constructed as well as a simple pressure-temperature phase diagram for each system. We further demonstrate IBNS by computing part of the pressure-temperature phase diagram of a Lennard-Jones system under periodic boundary conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Forward modeling fluctuations in the DESI LRGs target sample using image simulations

We use the forward modeling pipeline, Obiwan, to study the imaging systematics of the Luminous Red Galaxies (LRGs) targeted by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). Imaging systematics refers to the false fluctuation of galaxy densities due to varying observing conditions and astrophysical foregrounds corresponding to the imaging surveys from which DESI LRG target galaxies are selected. We update the Obiwan pipeline, which we previously developed to simulate the optical images used to target DESI data, to further simulate WISE images in the infrared. This addition allows simulating the DESI LRGs sample, which utilizes WISE data in the target selection. Deep DESI imaging data combined with a method to account for biases in their shapes is used to define a truth sample of potential LRG targets. We inject these data evenly throughout the DESI Legacy Imaging Survey footprint at declinations between -30 and 32.375 degrees. We simulate a total of 15 million galaxies to obtain a simulated LRG sample (Obiwan LRGs) that predicts the variations in target density due to imaging properties. We find that the simulations predict the trends with depth observed in the data, including how they depend on the intrinsic brightness of the galaxies. We observe that faint LRGs are the main contributing source of the imaging systematics trend induced by depth. We also find significant trends in the data against Galactic extinction that are not predicted by Obiwan. These trends depend strongly on the particular map of Galactic extinction chosen to test against, implying systematic contamination in the Galactic extinction maps is a likely root cause (e.g., Cosmic-Infrared Background, dust temperature correction). We additionally observe a morphological change of the DESI LRGs population evidenced by a correlation between OII emission line average intensity and the size of the z-band PSF. This effect most likely results from uncertainties in background subtraction. The detailed findings we present should be used to guide any observational systematics mitigation treatment for the clustering of the DESI LRGs sample.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Rare Event Sampling Improves Mercury Instability Statistics

Due to the chaotic nature of planetary dynamics, there is a non-zero probability that Mercury's orbit will become unstable in the future. Previous efforts have estimated the probability of this happening between 3 and 5 billion years in the future using a large number of direct numerical simulations with an N-body code, but were not able to obtain accurate estimates before 3 billion years in the future because Mercury instability events are too rare. In this paper we use a new rare-event sampling technique, Quantile Diffusion Monte Carlo (QDMC), to estimate that the probability of a Mercury instability event in the next 2 billion years is approximately 10 –4 in the REBOUND N-body code. We show that QDMC provides unbiased probability estimates at a computational cost of up to 100 times less than direct numerical simulation. QDMC is easy to implement and could be applied to many problems in planetary dynamics in which it is necessary to estimate the probability of a rare event.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗