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At least 217 records · Page 12

UQpy: A general purpose Python package and development environment for uncertainty quantification

In this paper, we present the UQpy software toolbox, an open-source Python package for general uncertainty quantification (UQ) in mathematical and physical systems. The software serves as both a user-ready toolbox that includes many of the latest methods for UQ in computational modeling and a convenient development environment for Python programmers advancing the field of UQ. The paper presents an introduction to the software's architecture and existing capabilities, divided in the code in a set of modules centered around different UQ tasks such as sampling methods, generation of random processes and random fields, probabilistic inverse modeling, reliability analysis, surrogate modeling, and active learning. The paper also highlights the importance of the RunModel module, which is used to drive simulations in the uncertainty analyses performed in UQpy. This module conveniently allows the user to define computational models directly in Python, or to run simulations from a third-party software in serial or in parallel. To illustrate the various capabilities, two examples are tracked throughout the paper and analyzed repeatedly for various UQ tasks. The first is a Python model solving a nonlinear structural dynamics problem, used to illustrate UQpy's capabilities in sampling and forward propagation of high dimensional random vectors (stochastic processes), and probabilistic inference. The second model is a third-party Abaqus finite element model solving the thermomechanical response of a beam structure. This example is used to illustrate UQpy's capabilities in variance reduction sampling techniques, reliability analysis, surrogate modeling and active learning techniques.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An Efficient Bayesian Approach to Learning Droplet Collision Kernels: Proof of Concept Using “Cloudy,” a New n -Moment Bulk Microphysics Scheme

The small-scale microphysical processes governing the formation of precipitation particles cannot be resolved explicitly by cloud resolving and climate models. Instead, they are represented by microphysics schemes that are based on a combination of theoretical knowledge, statistical assumptions, and fitting to data (“tuning”). Historically, tuning was done in an ad hoc fashion, leading to parameter choices that are not explainable or repeatable. Recent work has treated it as an inverse problem that can be solved by Bayesian inference. The posterior distribution of the parameters given the data—the solution of Bayesian inference—is found through computationally expensive sampling methods, which require over $\mathcal{O}$(10 5 ) evaluations of the forward model; this is prohibitive for many models. We present a proof of concept of Bayesian learning applied to a new bulk microphysics scheme named “Cloudy,” using the recently developed Calibrate-Emulate-Sample (CES) algorithm. Cloudy models collision-coalescence and collisional breakup of cloud droplets with an adjustable number of prognostic moments and with easily modifiable assumptions for the cloud droplet mass distribution and the collision kernel. The CES algorithm uses machine learning tools to accelerate Bayesian inference by reducing the number of forward evaluations needed to $\mathcal{O}$(10 2 ). It also exhibits a smoothing effect when forward evaluations are polluted by noise. In a suite of perfect-model experiments, we show that CES enables computationally efficient Bayesian inference of parameters in Cloudy from noisy observations of moments of the droplet mass distribution. In an additional imperfect-model experiment, a collision kernel parameter is successfully learned from output generated by a Lagrangian particle-based microphysics model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Micro- to nano-scale areal heterogeneity in pore structure and mineral compositions of a sub-decimeter-sized Eagle Ford Shale

Mineral and organic matter compositions & pore structures of fine-grained shale influence reservoir properties. To improve the understanding of spatial heterogeneity in core-sized samples, methods of microscale X-ray fluorescence (μXRF) mapping, (ultra-) small-angle x-ray scattering [(U)SAXS] and wide-angle X-ray scattering (WAXS) have been used to determine elemental, pore-structure variations at scales up to ~10 cm on two samples prepared at circular and rectangular orientations from a piece of Eagle Ford Shale outcrop in South Texas, USA. In addition, thin section petrography and field emission-scanning electron microscopy observations, X-ray diffraction (XRD), total organic carbon, and pyrolysis were utilized to investigate the potential spatial heterogeneity of pore types, mineral and organic matter compositions for cm-sized samples at both orientations. Overall, the siliceous-carbonate mineral contents in these two samples (8 cm×8 cm×0.08 cm and 5 cm × 8 cm × 0.08 cm, in terms of width×length×thickness) of carbonate-rich Eagle Ford Shale vary between laminations at mm scales. For the circular sample, porosity and specific surface area (SSA) variations range from 0.82 to 3.04% and 1.51 to 14.1 m 2 /g, respectively. For the rectangular sample, values for porosity and SSA vary from 0.93 to 2.50% and 3.95 to 10.8 m 2 /g. By analyzing six selected sub-samples on each of two samples with (U)SAXS and XRD techniques, nm-sized pores are mainly interparticle ones in the higher calcite regions, where the porosity is also relatively lower, while the lower calcite regions consist of both interparticle and intraparticle pore types with higher porosity. Lastly, the μXRF and (U)SAXS mappings are combined to generate porosity distribution maps to provide more insights about sample heterogeneity related to the laminations and fractures at our observational scales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Computation of Variability in the Average Thermal and Mechanical Properties of a Melt-infiltrated Sic/sic Composite

Thermal conductivity and tensile properties (elastic modulus, proportional limit strength, inplane tensile strength, and strain to failure) of a SiC/SiC composite were experimentally determined at 816 and 1204 C. Tests were performed at room temperature on the same material to obtain interlaminar shear and tensile strength. For each thermal and mechanical property 24 tests were conducted to capture the variation. A random sampling method was used to quantify the variability exhibited by the mean values of the thermal and mechanical properties. The minimum number of tests required to characterize the mean value of each thermal or mechanical property for the composite was determined by varying the group size of the random sample.

Kalluri, Sreeramesh↗

Rapid macrovoid characterization in membranes prepared via nonsolvent-induced phase separation: A comparison between 2D and 3D techniques

Optimizing the performance of asymmetric membranes prepared via nonsolvent-induced phase separation (NIPS) requires a quantitative understanding of how processing variables influence membrane morphology. Presently, the most useful structural quantification techniques require 3D visualization of the membrane structure and are best suited for studies seeking detailed information on small datasets. This study proposes and validates a rapid and accurate technique for quantifying macroporosity (i.e., D m ), a simple descriptor of sublayer macrovoid content in asymmetric membranes D m . values measured from segmented cross-sectional imaging performed via X-ray computed tomography (XCT) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) are presented and compared for three asymmetric membranes prepared from commercial polymers. Importantly, analyses of 3D XCT membrane reconstructions reveal that D m is described by a single, centralized mean, which demonstrates that macrovoid content is spatially homogenous. Thus, D m can be approximated from limited sampling of the 2D cross-sectional membrane structure via SEM. A proposed 2D SEM sampling method provides D m estimates within ±6% of corresponding 3D XCT values with 30 independent measurements for the three membranes. Further sensitivity is achieved using complementary descriptors such as macrovoid count density (i.e., C m ). This technique is thus a useful tool for characterizing macroporosity from a broad selection of membrane samples.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Aboveground Rather Than Belowground Productivity Drives Variability in Miscanthus × giganteus Net Primary Productivity

Quantifying the carbon (C) uptake of Miscanthus × giganteus ( M × g ) in both aboveground and belowground structures (e.g., net primary productivity (NPP)) and differences among methodological approaches is crucial. Our objectives were to directly measure Mxg NPP and evaluate the effects of nitrogen application, location, and belowground biomass sampling methods. We hypothesize that increased nitrogen application increases the overall NPP of M × g and that quantifying rhizome biomass using excavations will produce the lowest variability between replicates. We collected biomass from mature M × g stands from three locations in Iowa with three nitrogen application rates and one site in Illinois. We destructively sampled at two time points, when rhizome mass is anticipated to be at a minimum (initial) and anticipated to be at its maximum (peak). Biomass was collected from 1 × 1 m quadrats in which one in-clump and one beside-clump cores were collected and then excavated to 30 cm depth to extract all rhizomes. We found that aboveground M × g NPP ranged from 15.4 Mg DM ha –1 year –1 to 36.4 Mg DM ha –1 year–1 and belowground M × g NPP ranged from 4.4 Mg DM ha –1 year –1 to 19.6 Mg DM ha –1 year –1 . M × g NPP varied across sites, fertilization, and calculation assumptions. Aboveground NPP (yield) was on average 68.7% of the total NPP. Root-to-shoot ratios at peak biomass decreased with nitrogen application rate, from an average of 1.9 for 0 N plots to 0.89 for 224 N fertilized plots. There was more variation in core data than from excavations; however, when in-clump and beside-clump cores were averaged together, core and excavation averages were not different. Overall, these results show that the range of mature M × g NPP is driven by aboveground productivity, influenced by nitrogen application and site. Our results provide useful data to constrain agro-ecosystem models and provide crucial insights for future perennial belowground sampling.

Hartman, Theodore [Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Cha↗

Direct Simulation of Extinction in a Slab of Spherical Particles

The exact multiple sphere superposition method is used to calculate the coherent and incoherent contributions to the ensemble-averaged electric field amplitude and Poynting vector in systems of randomly positioned nonabsorbing spherical particles. The target systems consist of cylindrical volumes, with radius several times larger than length, containing spheres with positional configurations generated by a Monte Carlo sampling method. Spatially dependent values for coherent electric field amplitude, coherent energy flux, and diffuse energy flux, are calculated by averaging of exact local field and flux values over multiple configurations and over spatially independent directions for fixed target geometry, sphere properties, and sphere volume fraction. Our results reveal exponential attenuation of the coherent field and the coherent energy flux inside the particulate layer and thereby further corroborate the general methodology of the microphysical radiative transfer theory. An effective medium model based on plane wave transmission and reflection by a plane layer is used to model the dependence of the coherent electric field on particle packing density. The effective attenuation coefficient of the random medium, computed from the direct simulations, is found to agree closely with effective medium theories and with measurements. In addition, the simulation results reveal the presence of a counter-propagating component to the coherent field, which arises due to the internal reflection of the main coherent field component by the target boundary. The characteristics of the diffuse flux are compared to, and found to be consistent with, a model based on the diffusion approximation of the radiative transfer theory.

spheres↗

Geophysical methods reveal the soil architecture and subsurface stratigraphic heterogeneities across land-lake interfaces along Lake Erie

Abstract Purpose The land-lake interface is a unique zone where terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems meet, forming part of the Earth’s most geochemically and biologically active zones. The unique characteristics of this interface are yet to be properly understood due to the inherently high spatiotemporal variability of subsurface properties, which are difficult to capture with the traditional soil sampling methods. Geophysical methods offer non-invasive techniques to capture variabilities in soil properties at a high resolution across various spatiotemporal scales. Methods We combined electromagnetic induction (EMI), electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), and ground penetrating radar (GPR) with data from soil cores and in situ sensors to investigate hydrostratigraphic heterogeneities across land-lake interfaces along the western basin of Lake Erie. Results EMI revealed high spatial heterogeneities in ECa distribution across the land-lake interfaces, with higher values in the wetland and transition zones compared to the upland zone. Soil ECa maps matched soil maps from a public database with the hydric soil units delineated as high conductivity zones (ECa > 40 mS/m). ERT and GPR showed vertical variation in soil properties with clear stratigraphic boundaries, and correlation of ERT profiles with lithologs from piezometers revealed the stratigraphic units of silt–clay and till sequence down to 3.5 m depth which are consistent with the surficial geology of the study area. Conclusions These results validate the use of multiple geophysical methods for extrapolating soil properties and mapping stratigraphic structures at land-lake interfaces, thereby providing the missing information required to improve the earth system model (ESM) of coastal interfaces.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantum-assisted associative adversarial network: applying quantum annealing in deep learning

Abstract Generative models have the capacity to model and generate new examples from a dataset and have an increasingly diverse set of applications driven by commercial and academic interest. In this work, we present an algorithm for learning a latent variable generative model via generative adversarial learning where the canonical uniform noise input is replaced by samples from a graphical model. This graphical model is learned by a Boltzmann machine which learns low-dimensional feature representation of data extracted by the discriminator. A quantum processor can be used to sample from the model to train the Boltzmann machine. This novel hybrid quantum-classical algorithm joins a growing family of algorithms that use a quantum processor sampling subroutine in deep learning, and provides a scalable framework to test the advantages of quantum-assisted learning. For the latent space model, fully connected, symmetric bipartite and Chimera graph topologies are compared on a reduced stochastically binarized MNIST dataset, for both classical and quantum sampling methods. The quantum-assisted associative adversarial network successfully learns a generative model of the MNIST dataset for all topologies. Evaluated using the Fréchet inception distance and inception score, the quantum and classical versions of the algorithm are found to have equivalent performance for learning an implicit generative model of the MNIST dataset. Classical sampling is used to demonstrate the algorithm on the LSUN bedrooms dataset, indicating scalability to larger and color datasets. Though the quantum processor used here is a quantum annealer, the algorithm is general enough such that any quantum processor, such as gate model quantum computers, may be substituted as a sampler.

Wilson, Max (ORCID:0000000207983391)↗

A project management system for the X-29A flight test program

The project-management system developed for NASA's participation in the X-29A aircraft development program is characterized from a theoretical perspective, as an example of a system appropriate to advanced, highly integrated technology projects. System-control theory is applied to the analysis of classical project-management techniques and structures, which are found to be of closed-loop multivariable type; and the effects of increasing project complexity and integration are evaluated. The importance of information flow, sampling frequency, information holding, and delays is stressed. The X-29A system is developed in four stages: establishment of overall objectives and requirements, determination of information processes (block diagrams) definition of personnel functional roles and relationships, and development of a detailed work-breakdown structure. The resulting system is shown to require a greater information flow to management than conventional methods. Sample block diagrams are provided.

Stewart, J. F.↗

Robust Importance Sampling for Bayesian Model Calibration with Spatio-Temporal Data

This paper addresses two challenges in Bayesian calibration: 1) computational speed of existing sampling algorithms, and 2) calibration with spatio-temporal responses. The commonly used Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches require many sequential model evaluations making the computational expense prohibitive. This paper proposes an efficient sampling algorithm: iterative importance sampling with genetic algorithm (IISGA). While iterative importance sampling enables computational efficiency, the genetic algorithm enables robustness by preventing sample degeneration and avoids getting stuck in multimodal search spaces. An inflated likelihood further enables robustness in high-dimensional parameter spaces by enlarging the target distribution. Spatio-temporal data complicate both surrogate modeling, which is necessary for expensive computational models, and the likelihood estimation. In this work, singular value decomposition is investigated for reducing the high-dimensional field data to a lower-dimensional space prior to Bayesian calibration. Then the likelihood is formulated and Bayesian inference is performed in the lower-dimension, latent space. An illustrative example is provided to demonstrate IISGA relative to existing sampling methods, and then IISGA is employed to calibrate a thermal battery model with 26 uncertain calibration parameters and spatio-temporal response data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Determination of Scopolamine in Human Saliva Using Solid Phase Extraction and LC/MS/MS

Purpose: Scopolamine is the preferred treatment for motion sickness during space flight because of its quick onset of action, short half-life and favorable side-effect profile. The dose administered depends on the mode of administration and usually ranges between 0.1 and 0.8 mg. Such small doses make it difficult to detect concentrations of scopolamine in biological fluids by using conventional HPLC methods. To measure scopolamine in saliva and thereby to evaluate the pharmacokinetics of scopolamine, we developed an LC/MS/MS method using off-line solid phase extraction. Method: Samples (0.5mL) were loaded onto Waters Oasis HLB co-polymer cartridges (10 mg, 1 mL) and eluted with 0.5 mL methanol without evaporation and reconstitution. HPLC separation of the eluted sample was performed using an Agilent Zorbax SB-CN column (50 x 2.1 mm) at a flow rate of 0.2 mL/min for 4 minutes. The mobile phase for separation was 90:10 (v/v) methanol: ammonium acetate (2 mM) in water, pH 5.0 +/- 0.1. Concentrations of scopolamine were determined using a Micromass Quattro Micro(TM) mass spectrometer with electrospray ionization (ESI). ESI mass spectra were acquired in positive ion mode with multiple reaction monitoring for the determination of scopolamine m/z = 304.2 yields 138.1 and internal standard (IS) hyoscyamine m/z = 290.2 yields 124.1. Results: The method is rapid, reproducible, specific and has the following parameters: scopolamine and the IS are eluted at 1.7 and 3.2 min respectively. The linear range is 50-5000 pg/mL for scopolamine in saliva with correlation coefficients > 0.99 with a CV < 0.5 %. The intra-day and inter-day CVs are < 15 % for quality control samples with concentrations of 75, 300, 750 and 3000 pg/mL of scopolamine in human saliva. Conclusion: Solid phase extraction allows more rapid sample preparation and greater precision than liquid extraction. Furthermore, we increased the sensitivity and specificity by adjusting the LC mobile phase and using an MS/MS detector.

Wang, Zuwei↗

Photometry of Outer Solar System Objects from the Dark Energy Survey. I. Photometric Methods, Light-curve Distributions, and Trans-Neptunian Binaries

We report the methods of and initial scientific inferences from the extraction of precision photometric information for the >800 trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) discovered in the images of the Dark Energy Survey (DES). Scene-modeling photometry is used to obtain shot-noise-limited flux measures for each exposure of each TNO, with background sources subtracted. Comparison of double-source fits to the pixel data with single-source fits are used to identify and characterize two binary TNO systems. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo method samples the joint likelihood of the intrinsic colors of each source as well as the amplitude of its flux variation, given the time series of multiband flux measurements and their uncertainties. A catalog of these colors and light-curve amplitudes A is included with this publication. We show how to assign a likelihood to the distribution q(A) of light-curve amplitudes in any subpopulation. Using this method, we find decisive evidence (i.e., evidence ratio <0.01) that cold classical (CC) TNOs with absolute magnitude 6 < H$_{r}$ < 8.2 are more variable than the hot classical (HC) population of the same H$_{r}$, reinforcing theories that the former form in situ and the latter arise from a different physical population. Resonant and scattering TNOs in this H$_{r}$ range have variability consistent with either the HCs or CCs. DES TNOs with H$_{r}$ < 6 are seen to be decisively less variable than higher-H$_{r}$ members of any dynamical group, as expected. More surprising is that detached TNOs are decisively less variable than scattering TNOs, which requires them to have distinct source regions or some subsequent differential processing.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A software‐defined networks ‐based measurement method of network traffic for 6G technologies

Abstract In software‐defined networks (SDN) for 6G technologies, the controller should accurately and efficiently measure the flow traffic in switches for traffic engineering. Fine‐grained flow measurement can more accurately describe the traffic in the network, but it also consumes much more resources. To reduce the overhead incurred in the measurement process and obtain the approximate fine‐grained measurements, we propose a novel lightweight measurement scheme that runs in the controller. The novel lightweight measurement architecture consists of two parts: coarse‐grained measurement and interpolation‐optimization. In the first part, based on the SDN architecture, we use the pull‐based random sampling method to quickly obtain the coarse‐grained measurement of flow traffic through OpenFlow protocol. In the second part, we insert some discrete values into the coarse‐grained measurement with the interpolation theory, then we optimize interpolation results until finding the optimal fine‐grained flow traffic measurement by utilizing the multiconstraint method. We verified the feasibility of the proposed measurement method, and simulation results show that the measurement error of the proposed method is under 25%, but the flow measurement overhead of this method occupies only 3.3% compared with that of the fine‐grained method.

Huo, Liuwei↗

A New Aerodynamic Data Dispersion Method for Launch Vehicle Design

A novel method for implementing aerodynamic data dispersion analysis is herein introduced. A general mathematical approach combined with physical modeling tailored to the aerodynamic quantity of interest enables the generation of more realistically relevant dispersed data and, in turn, more reasonable flight simulation results. The method simultaneously allows for the aerodynamic quantities and their derivatives to be dispersed given a set of non-arbitrary constraints, which stresses the controls model in more ways than with the traditional bias up or down of the nominal data within the uncertainty bounds. The adoption and implementation of this new method within the NASA Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle Project has resulted in significant increases in predicted roll control authority, and lowered the induced risks for flight test operations. One direct impact on launch vehicles is a reduced size for auxiliary control systems, and the possibility of an increased payload. This technique has the potential of being applied to problems in multiple areas where nominal data together with uncertainties are used to produce simulations using Monte Carlo type random sampling methods. It is recommended that a tailored physics-based dispersion model be delivered with any aerodynamic product that includes nominal data and uncertainties, in order to make flight simulations more realistic and allow for leaner spacecraft designs.

Pinier, Jeremy T.↗

Deep Active Learning for Solvability Prediction in Power Systems

Traditional methods for solvability region analysis can only have inner approximations with inconclusive conservatism and handle limited types of power flow models. In this letter, we propose a deep active learning framework for solvability prediction in power systems. Compared with passive learning where the training is performed after all instances are labeled, active learning selects most informative instances to be labeled and therefore significantly reduces the size of the labeled dataset for training. In the active learning framework, the acquisition functions, which correspond to different sampling strategies, are defined in terms of the on-the-fly posterior probability from the classifier. First, the IEEE 39-bus system is employed to validate the proposed framework, where a two-dimensional case is illustrated to visualize the effectiveness of the sampling method followed by the high-dimensional numerical experiments. Then, the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) 140-bus system is used to validate the performance on large-scale power systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Characterization of fault recovery through fault injection on FTMP

The development of fault-injection procedures and statistical analysis techniques to characterize the fault recovery of fault-tolerant systems is described. Pin-level fault-injection was conducted on a fault-tolerant microprocessor computer in order to generate data to assess the utility of current fault-injection sampling methods. The validity of common reliability-modeling assumptions concerning the statistical distribution of recovery times is investigated. A multiple comparison analysis for detecting behavior variations, and a distribution fitting for determining the best fit for the data were conducted. It is observed that the detection behavior is not homogeneous across all data sets, and that none of the factors under experimental control can account for the observed groupings of behavior. It is determined that no single distribution fits all the data sets, and that stratified random sampling and statistically robust parameter-estimation techniques are required to characterize fault detection time.

Finelli, George B.↗

Multi-fidelity microstructure-induced uncertainty quantification by advanced Monte Carlo methods

Quantifying uncertainty associated with the microstructure variation of a material can be a computationally daunting task, especially when dealing with advanced constitutive models and fine mesh resolutions in the crystal plasticity finite element method (CPFEM). Numerous studies have been conducted regarding the sensitivity of material properties and performance to the mesh resolution and choice of constitutive model. However, a unified approach that accounts for various fidelity parameters, such as mesh resolutions, integration time-steps and constitutive models simultaneously is currently lacking. Further, this paper proposes a novel uncertainty quantification (UQ) approach for computing the properties and performance of homogenized materials using CPFEM, that exploits a hierarchy of approximations with different levels of fidelity. In particular, we illustrate how multi-level sampling methods, such as multi-level Monte Carlo (MLMC) and multi-index Monte Carlo (MIMC), can be applied to assess the impact of variations in the microstructure of polycrystalline materials on the predictions of homogenized materials properties. We show that by adaptively exploiting the fidelity hierarchy, we can significantly reduce the number of microstructures required to reach a certain prescribed accuracy. Finally, we show how our approach can be extended to a multi-fidelity framework, where we allow the underlying constitutive model to be chosen from either a phenomenological plasticity model or a dislocation-density-based model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗