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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Characterizing Long COVID: Deep Phenotype of a Complex Condition

Background: Numerous publications describe the clinical manifestations of post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC or "long COVID"), but they are difficult to integrate because of heterogeneous methods and the lack of a standard for denoting the many phenotypic manifestations. Patient-led studies are of particular importance for understanding the natural history of COVID-19, but integration is hampered because they often use different terms to describe the same symptom or condition. This significant disparity in patient versus clinical characterization motivated the proposed ontological approach to specifying manifestations, which will improve capture and integration of future long COVID studies. Methods: The Human Phenotype Ontology (HPO) is a widely used standard for exchange and analysis of phenotypic abnormalities in human disease but has not yet been applied to the analysis of COVID-19. Funding: We identified 303 articles published before April 29, 2021, curated 59 relevant manuscripts that described clinical manifestations in 81 cohorts three weeks or more following acute COVID-19, and mapped 287 unique clinical findings to HPO terms. We present layperson synonyms and definitions that can be used to link patient self-report questionnaires to standard medical terminology. Long COVID clinical manifestations are not assessed consistently across studies, and most manifestations have been reported with a wide range of synonyms by different authors. Across at least 10 cohorts, authors reported 31 unique clinical features corresponding to HPO terms; the most commonly reported feature was Fatigue (median 45.1%) and the least commonly reported was Nausea (median 3.9%), but the reported percentages varied widely between studies. Interpretation: Translating long COVID manifestations into computable HPO terms will improve analysis, data capture, and classification of long COVID patients. If researchers, clinicians, and patients share a common language, then studies can be compared/pooled more effectively. Furthermore, mapping lay terminology to HPO will help patients assist clinicians and researchers in creating phenotypic characterizations that are computationally accessible, thereby improving the stratification, diagnosis, and treatment of long COVID.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Unprecedented Shifts in Hydrology Are Emerging Across California's Critical Basins: An Evaluation From 0.5 to 3.5°C

With advances in climate models and downscaling techniques, stakeholders anticipate high-resolution analysis to inform regional to local changes in water management. Here, we produce hydrologic projections from an ensemble of Earth System Models (ESMs) that were selected and downscaled to support California's 5th Climate Assessment. An ensemble of 19 ESMs was downscaled to a 3-km resolution across California using a statistical-dynamical downscaling approach and subsequently run through two calibrated hydrology models. Although California has been extensively studied in the context of climate change, we provide the first evaluation of the warming thresholds at which hydroclimate metrics demonstrate statistically significant shifts. We show that present-day to near-term warming levels in Klamath and Northern Sierra Nevada basins, which serve as a critical source of water for California, show statistically significant decreases in snowfall and peak snowpack and associated decreases in summer snowmelt and runoff. More generally, shifts in these hydroclimate metrics occur for intermediate elevation basins ranging from 1,315 to 1,455 m (4,314.3–4,773.6 ft), while the warming level of emergence is delayed for lower and higher elevation basins. We also find that several basins already demonstrate significant increases in 5- to 100-year runoff intensities, primarily due to the increasing influence of precipitation falling as rain. Hydroclimate metrics with trends that demonstrate near-term warming levels of emergence are reflected in reanalysis-based observations, suggesting California is entering a fundamentally different hydroclimate regime. While this will likely stress California's water management, the research provided can support when to implement adaptation efforts.

Bass, B. [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (Un↗
DOE OSTI2026

Model‐Based Interpretation of Solute Exports and Carbon Partitioning During Shale Weathering in a Mountainous Hillslope

The weathering of sedimentary rocks in high-elevation catchments influences freshwater quality and the global carbon cycle. While individual biogeochemical mechanisms involved in this process are relatively well understood, quantifying their contributions to solute export and carbon fluxes under natural, transient conditions remains challenging. Here, we implement a numerical multidimensional and multiphase model to simulate coupled hydrological and biogeochemical processes in a shale-underlain, snow-dominated hillslope in the Rocky Mountains, Colorado. The model captures the dynamic interplay between soil respiration, mineral weathering, and climate-driven hydrological forcing, reproducing observed soil CO 2 dynamics, groundwater chemistry, and subsurface flow. Our results reveal that seasonal snowmelt enhances carbonate weathering by promoting the infiltration of CO 2 -rich water to depth, while pyrite oxidation is primarily sensitive to low water saturation that facilitates O 2 diffusion through the regolith. Topography modulates the spatial distribution of shale weathering, as steeper slopes enhance lateral drainage, favoring the delivery of reactants to greater depths. While shale weathering at our site acts as a transient carbon sink, with silicates and carbonates buffering acidity and promoting atmospheric CO 2 consumption (1% of soil-derived CO 2 ), the exported dissolved inorganic carbon is predominantly geogenic (∼73%). Consequently, when accounting for long-term marine carbonate precipitation. The current weathering regime represents a net source of carbon to the atmosphere. The oxidation of pyrite and petrogenic organic carbon together release approximately 0.9 mol·m −2 ·yr −1 of CO 2 . Our findings highlight the role of topography, hydroclimate, and the coupling between acid-base reactions in shaping the carbon balance and the solute exports in mountainous critical zones.

carbon cycling↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ecological Quality Evolution and Its Driving Factors in Yunnan Karst Rocky Desertification Areas

Rocky desertification is a key element affecting regional ecological quality. Rocky desertification in Southwest China directly affects the ecological security of the Yangtze River and Pearl River basins and also restricts regional economic and social development. In order to clarify the evolution laws and key influencing factors of ecological quality in Yunnan karst rocky desertification areas, a quantitative analysis based on the remote sensing-based ecological index (RSEI) model was conducted to explore the overall evolution characteristics and change laws of ecological quality in Yunnan karst rocky desertification areas in the past 30 years. The correlation between RSEI, rock outcrop rate (Fr), and driving factors was determined by redundancy analysis. The results showed the following: (1) RSEI in Yunnan karst rocky desertification areas generally showed a decreasing trend, with a fluctuation in the mid-term, followed by a tendency to recover. It fell into three stages: decline, trough, and recovery, with fitting coefficients of -0.121, -0.057, and 0.157, respectively. In contrast, Fr showed an opposite tendency, illustrating the inverse relationship between RSEI and Fr, and the rate of sequential succession was much faster than that of the reverse succession under human measures of intervention. (2) The mean value of RSEI of Yunnan karst rocky desertification areas was generally lower than that of the total Yunnan Province land areas and Yunnan non-karst rocky desertification areas, but the mean value of Fr was generally more than that of both the above-mentioned areas. In addition, the RSEI and Fr of Yunnan karst rocky desertification areas both showed lower stability values than those of both the above-mentioned areas. This generally suggested a low ecological quality and a high degree of desertification under a low stability in Yunnan karst rocky desertification areas. (3) The correlation of RSEI and Fr with driving factors followed the order of topographic factors, soil factors > water factors > anthropogenic factors. Anthropogenic factors were the driving force changing the state of rocky desertification, geological factors such as topography and soil to a larger extent determined the original macroscopic ecological relationship of rocky desertification, and water factors lay between the above two. The findings of this research will provide theoretical support and a basis for the improvement of ecological quality and comprehensive control of karst rocky desertification in Yunnan Province.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Selectivity of tris complexation for Ni(II), Co(II), and Fe(II) and its effect on carbonate precipitation under alkaline conditions

Simultaneous critical element recovery and ex-situ carbon mineralization of low-grade ultramafic deposits have garnered increasing interest. Understanding the selectivity of metal complexing organic ligands for various divalent metals present in ultramafic rocks during carbonate mineralization is required to optimize this process. Here we evaluate 2-amino-2-(hydroxymethyl)-1,3-propanediol (i.e., Tris) as a model for bidentate ligands that bind divalent metals with both amine and alcohol groups in alkaline conditions (pH 8–10.5) at 25 °C and 80 °C in carbonate-buffered solutions. Protonated Tris forms a stronger complex with metal ions and is selective for trace metals with Ni(II) > Co(II) > Fe(II) during carbonate precipitation, with the rates decreasing but selectivity increasing at lower temperature and lower pH. At 25 °C, metastable amorphous hydrated carbonates form, regardless of the amount of Tris present or pH values. At 80 °C and pH 8, the Co and Fe carbonates that form are a mixture of rosasite-group minerals (Co 2 CO 3 (OH) 2 (H 2 O) and Fe 2 CO 3 (OH) 2 ) and pure carbonates (sphaerocobaltite: CoCO 3 and siderite: FeCO 3 ), with the latter more stabilized with increasing Tris concentration. In mixed metal solutions without Tris at 25 °C where Fe:Ni or Fe:Co is 2:1, Fe increases the rates of Ni or Co carbonate precipitation. However, with increasing Tris concentration the presence of Ni or Co inhibits Fe carbonate precipitation. At 80 °C without Tris, Ni or Co substitute into the iron chukanovite (Fe 2 CO 3 (OH) 2 ) lattice, increasing Ni or Co carbonate precipitation rates. Increasing Tris concentration only slightly inhibits Fe and Co precipitation, but slows Ni precipitation up to 10 times, with Fe progressively partitioning into more pure carbonate phases with distinct crystalline morphologies. These findings suggest bidentate amine-bearing ligands may be effective at Ni and Co recovery during carbon mineralization of Fe-bearing ultramafic deposits at relatively low temperatures and slightly alkaline pH.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Failure Analysis–Informed Risk Assessment Framework for Geological Carbon Storage Using Numerical Simulation and Machine Learning

Geological carbon storage (GCS) is recognized as a critical technology for achieving large-scale reductions in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Ensuring long-term containment and safety requires robust risk assessment frameworks that account for geological uncertainty and identify potential failure scenarios. Among various indicators, the area of review (AoR) serves as a key metric for evaluating storage performance, regulatory compliance, and monitoring design, as it delineates the spatial extent impacted by pressure buildup and plume migration. However, conventional AoR-based risk assessments typically perturb parameters within narrow uncertainty bounds, potentially overlooking rare but high-impact events arising from extreme geological conditions. In this study, we present a failure analysis–informed risk assessment framework for large-scale GCS projects to improve site prescreening and monitoring design. A suite of 300 numerical simulations was generated using stochastic geological models that vary five key parameters: net-to-gross ratio, anisotropy azimuth, porosity multiplier, permeability multiplier, and vertical-to-horizontal permeability ratio. Among these, 200 realizations represent normal geological uncertainty, while 100 additional cases explore extreme yet plausible conditions for failure-case analysis. The AoR was simulated and computed from pressure and CO 2 saturation fields, where the baseline AoR boundary, representing the extent predicted under typical geological uncertainty, was defined as the union of 200 normal-range simulations, and failure was identified when extreme-range cases exceeded this baseline. Results show that incorporating broader parameter uncertainty produces significantly larger AoR extents, underscoring the potential underestimation of risk under conventional uncertainty ranges. Furthermore, spatial probability maps derived from failure-induced AoR exceedance identify regions requiring enhanced monitoring attention. Various machine learning (ML)–based classifiers were developed to predict failure occurrence from geological parameters, with the random forest model achieving the highest performance (F1-score of 0.986). Consistent findings from correlation coefficient, feature importance, and Sobol sensitivity analyses reveal that low net-to-gross ratios and permeability multipliers are the dominant risk drivers, reflecting reduced reservoir connectivity and limited pressure dissipation. Altogether, these results provide a novel framework for risk-informed site prescreening and monitoring design that explicitly considers rare but high-impact geological scenarios in GCS projects.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comprehensive earthquake catalogue update and spatiotemporal distribution analysis for Iraq and surrounding regions, northeastern Arabian Plate

The updated earthquake catalogue for Iraq covers the period from 1900 to the end of 2021 and includes over 37 000 recorded earthquakes. To create this comprehensive catalogue, five key steps were taken: compiling bulletins, calculating moment magnitudes, harmonizing magnitudes, establishing empirical conversion relations and evaluating the completeness of the catalogue. A notable enhancement in this update is the direct calculation of moment magnitudes for approximately 2800 earthquakes, achieved through the coda envelope technique and waveform data from the Mesopotamian Seismological Network (MPSN) in Iraq. This updated catalogue serves as a valuable resource for examining the spatiotemporal distribution of earthquakes, with respect to earthquake density, maximum moment magnitude and seismogenic depths. Additionally, the Gutenberg–Richter relationship was applied to calculate the a- and b-values specific to Iraq. The findings show that the Zagros Fold-Thrust Belt has a seismogenic layer (source) that ranges from 2 to 33 km deep and experiences high seismic activity. In contrast, the Mesopotamian Foredeep has a seismogenic layer ranging from 1 to 25 km deep and has lower seismic activity. The greatest seismic activity is concentrated around the Mandili-Badra-Teeb fault, which has experienced significant ruptures over time. The Outer Arabian Platform is identified as the main area of seismic activity, while additional activity occurs on the Inner Arabian Platform. Three major tectonic boundaries define the distribution of earthquakes in the northeastern Arabian Plate. These boundaries are defined by the Main Zagros Reverse Fault, the Zagros Foredeep Fault and the Anah Graben and Abu Jir-Euphrates Fault Zone. These boundaries highlight variations in seismicity levels and the spatial distribution of deformation in the region. The updated earthquake catalogue presented in this study is expected to play a vital role in regional seismicity assessments and seismic hazard analyses for Iraq and its surrounding areas.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterization of the Triassic Newark Basin of New York and New Jersey for Geologic Storage of Carbon Dioxide

The project Characterization of the Triassic Newark Basin of New York and New Jersey for Geologic Storage of Carbon Dioxide is one of 9 site characterization projects that were implemented as part of ARRA (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act). Data from this project was used to improve resolution of data in NATCARB in the area of study. Data related to this study has already been incorporated in NATCARB Atlas. Sandia Technologies, LLC, and co-investigator Conrad Geoscience Corporation, examined the potential for large-scale, permanent CO2 storage in sedimentary strata within the Newark Rift Basin. The Newark Rift Basin underlies an industrialized, developed region comprising parts of New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. The project characterized and investigated the suitability of Triassic age sedimentary formations for potential geologic CO2 storage. The project team drilled and cored two test wells to define the sedimentary geologic formations underlying the basin and to document or reach basement rock. With this geologic characterization phase, an integration of seismic, geologic, borehole, and formation core results provided a higher resolution assessment of CO2 storage potential. The Stockton Formation is known to be a potentially favorable geologic storage formation in the basin. In 2011, the 1-NYSTA Tandem Lot stratigraphic test well was drilled to a depth of 6,855 feet in the northern portion of the Newark Basin in southern New York State. Approximately 9 miles south-southeast on the Lamont Doherty Campus, TW-4 was drilled and cored in 2013 to a depth of 1,802 feet and contacted apparent igneous basement at a depth of 1,712 feet. Both wells penetrated the Palisades Sill ranging from 800 feet thick in the eastern well to approximately 1,800 feet in thickness at the 1-NYSTA Tandem Lot deep drill site. A diabase sill can provide an excellent seal and dense confining layer for potential CO2 storage reservoirs and flow layers that are situated beneath it within the Stockton Sandstone. The Stockton Sandstone was encountered beneath the sill in the TW-4 well on the Lamont campus, and data integration suggests that it was likely observed near total depth in the deep 1-NYSTA Tandem Lot well. The test wells confirm and define reservoirs are present beneath the sill and offer CO2 storage potential. The integration of geologic and reservoir characterization of well logs, formation cores, and formation fluids indicated Triassic age lacustrine playa lake and mudbank shales of the Upper Passaic Group can provide an effective seal for the porous and permeable underlying sandstone reservoir layers. This project acquired seismic data, drilled borehole well logs, acquired core samples, and integrated these findings to provide a better understanding of the subsurface geologic formations in the Newark Rift Basin. These findings have contributed to a higher degree of accuracy in predicting potential geologic storage opportunities, while refining geologic storage capacity estimates for the indicated reservoirs and flow units.

.las↗
DOE OSTI2022

Lithological controls on soil geochemistry and clay mineralogy across Spodosols in the coastal temperate rainforest of southeast Alaska

The interaction of similar soil forming factors with different parent materials determines soil chemical weathering, influencing soil processes and properties. In the coastal temperate rainforests of southeast Alaska, Spodosols is the dominant soil order in well-drained parent materials regardless of the lithology. Yet, the role of lithology on chemical weathering, base cation depletion, and mineral transformation during pedogenesis remains elusive. Here, we established a lithosequence comprised of soils derived from tonalite, phyllite, slate, and metavolcanic rocks to test the hypothesis that despite the soils in southeast Alaska presenting similar taxonomy and morphology, the influence of lithology in chemical weathering intensity and mineralogy can be detected. We evaluated physicochemical properties, clay mineralogy, Fe-Al oxides, chemical weathering, and elemental mass balance on eleven Spodosols sampled along the lithosequence. We also propose a new weathering index, the Weathering Index for Spodosols (WISP), suitable to evaluate the weathering degree of soils with Al mobility and base-rich parent materials. This index fills a gap in traditional weathering indices that uses Al as an immobile element and/or does not evaluate the leaching of main base cations. We found the pedons across the lithosequence expressed similar physicochemical properties, with predominantly thick profiles, presenting andic properties, relatively thick spodic horizons, and thin E horizons. Podzolization imposed similar mineral transformation trends, mainly dissolution of chlorite, mica alteration to interstratified mica-vermiculite, and formation of smectite in E horizons. Kaolinite was detected in the soils from all lithologies, but only in trace amounts in phyllite soils. Fe oxides depth distribution was similar but with a higher concentration in the slate (44.5 ± 4.2 g/kg), followed by metavolcanic (31.6 ± 4.0 g/kg), phyllite (27.9 ± 3.8 g/kg), and tonalite soils (19.9 ± 5.7 g/kg) and predominantly as organometallic complexes (extracted by Na-pyrophosphate). The stronger weathering of chlorite and mica in the E horizons was reflected in larger losses of Mg and K, while Ca and Na were more depleted in the spodic horizons, suggesting plagioclase weathering. Slate soils were the most depleted in base cations, followed by phyllite, tonalite, and metavolcanic soils. The more depleted status of slate soils was supported by the higher WISP values (WISP = 62), followed by phyllite (WISP = 55), tonalite (WISP = 53), and metavolcanic soils (WISP = 45). Our results demonstrated that lithology controlled elemental depletion intensities, Fe oxide concentrations, and partially the clay fraction mineralogy in addition to podzolization acting as a dominant pedogenic process across all sites. These findings advance our understanding of the role of lithology on soil mineralogy/geochemistry that impacts critical soil functions, such as the soil carbon cycle, elemental fluxes, organo-mineral interactions, and solid-solution reactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Harbinger of hysteresis in lithium-rich oxides: Anionic activity or defect chemistry of cation migration

In this work, we present findings on the mechanisms of hysteresis in lithium-rich cathode oxides. It is generally reported that the energy inefficiency, observed during electrochemical cycling of Li-rich electrodes, is a direct result of anion redox processes. Similarly, the coupled phenomenon of cation migration has been cited as being a mere consequence of that process with no essential ramification to hysteresis. Such works, however, have only shown correlations and not causation. Specifically, studies that clearly preclude the complete absence of either anion redox or cation migration (down to defect-level concentrations) are not reported yet. Herein, we present first principles calculations and experimental data on a bespoke Li-rich system that is indubitably immune to oxygen activity but yet exhibits significant energy inefficiency. Additionally, the results directly implicate transition metal migration as the fundamental, sole process responsible for hysteresis in this material. This study is of particular importance to the design and development of new Li-rich materials aimed at eliminating the role of oxygen and enhancing the effective cationic redox contribution to the capacity and points out the essential need to develop materials devoid of transition metal migration to interstitial sites in both layered and disordered oxides alike.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

The iron oxidation state of Ryugu samples

The Hayabusa2 mission sampled Ryugu, an asteroid that did not suffer extensive thermal metamorphism, and returned rocks to the Earth with no significant air exposure. It therefore offers a unique opportunity to study the redox state of carbonaceous Cb-type asteroids and evaluate the overall redox state of the most primitive rocks of the solar system. An analytical framework was developed to investigate the iron mineralogy and valence state in extraterrestrial material at the micron scale by combining x-ray diffraction, conventional Mössbauer (MS), and nuclear forward scattering (NFS) spectroscopies. An array of standard minerals was analyzed and cross-calibrated between MS and NFS. Then, MS and NFS spectra on three Ryugu grains were collected at the bulk and the micron scales. In Ryugu samples, iron is essentially accommodated in magnetite, clay minerals (serpentine–smectite), and sulfides. Only a single set of Mössbauer parameters was necessary to account for the entire variability observed in MS and NFS spectra, at all spatial scales investigated. These parameters therefore make up a fully consistent iron mineralogical model for the Ryugu samples. As far as MS and NFS spectroscopies are concerned, Ryugu grains are overall similar to each other and share most of their mineralogical features with CI-type chondrites. In detail however, no ferrihydrite is found in Ryugu particles even at the very sensitive scale of Mössbauer spectroscopy. The typical Fe 3+ /Fe tot of clay minerals is much lower than typical redox ratios measured in CI chondrites (Fe 3+ /Fe tot = 85%–90%). Furthermore, magnetite from Ryugu is stoichiometric with no significant maghemite component, whereas up to 12% of maghemite was previously identified in the Orgueil's so-called magnetite. These differences suggest that most CI meteorites suffered terrestrial alteration and that the preterrestrial composition of these carbon-rich samples was less oxidized than previously measured. However, it is not clear yet whether or not the parent bodies of CI chondrites were as reduced as Ryugu. Finally, the high spatial resolution of NFS allows to disentangle the redox state and the crystal chemistry of iron accommodated in serpentine and smectite. The most likely polytype of serpentine is lizardite, containing <35% of Fe 3+ , a fraction of which being tetrahedrally coordinated. Smectite is more oxidized (Fe 3+ /Fe tot > 65%) and mainly contains octahedral ferric iron. In conclusion, this finding implies that these clays formed from highly alkaline fluids and the spatial variability highlighted here may suggest a temporal evolution or a spatial variability of the nature of this fluid.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Distribution Development for the RDX Regional Model at Los Alamos National Laboratory - 20385

Representing uncertainty in model inputs often means finding a balance between uncertainty and physical reality. Developing wide distributions may seem conservative in principle, but this approach may lead to unrealistic model results. Characterizing the current state of knowledge of stochastic inputs presents many challenges, especially if the data available are limited or have limited relevance to the site. Relationships among these inputs may also be important to represent but are typically complex or difficult to define. Often special adjustments must be made to account for reduced credibility in particular data. If parameters are strongly related to one another, a correlation structure may be developed for input to the model. Other techniques such as regression models may be used to incorporate relationships between the information available and the desired parameters. The process of developing distributions must consider details of the model in terms of what the distribution is meant to represent. This paper uses the example of a probabilistic fate and transport model for hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX) in the regional aquifer at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). For many parameters, a single draw is applied to all space and time over which the model is run, for a single iteration. This simplification is often made for many reasons, and can often be beneficial, but also adds additional complexity in the distribution development process. Defining the distributional goals as they relate to the modeling process is an important step, which should take place prior to evaluation of the data. Usually, the distributions developed are meant to characterize the average value of the parameter over the spatial and temporal domain of the model. Distribution development requires consideration of many sources of information on the parameter where available, ideally from multiple references. Examples of different sources include data from different references but also from different conditions, measurement methods, or experimental types. Depending on these conditions and the reliability or relevance of particular references, different sources of data may each contribute valuable information but have varying relevance to the site. In these cases, weighting data unequally is a useful way to incorporate this information. As an example, aqueous dispersivity data are available for a variety of rock types. Only a few values are available for the desired rock type, and this is not enough to develop a distribution. Therefore, dispersivity values from other rock types are included in distribution development but are down-weighted such that the best data have the most influence on the distribution developed. In another case, K{sub d} distributions in the model are meant to represent a known composition of multiple soil types. Data from these materials are weighted accordingly to develop a distribution for the weighted average K{sub d} across soil types. Other cases include varying reliability of different sources, and weighting data according to the confidence in these sources. In some cases, input parameters are correlated with one another. An example is advective porosity, which is positively correlated with total porosity and must be less than total porosity. Paired data with both parameters must exist to discern the relationship between the two parameters and if it is necessary to build a correlation structure into the model. In general, correlated parameters may be represented in the model by a multivariate distribution, or perhaps more desirably, capturing the correlation within the developed distributions which may be treated as independent from one another. In the example of porosity, this can be done by transforming advective porosity into a proportion of total porosity which may be drawn independently from the distribution of total porosity. This paper explores how complex data and correlations can be incorporated to meet the distributional goals of the model, using the RDX regional model as a detailed example. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Findings on Subtask 3.1 - Bakken Rich Gas Enhanced Oil Recovery Project

Total in-place oil for the Bakken petroleum system (BPS) (which includes the Bakken and Three Forks Formations) has been estimated to be 600 billion barrels (bbl). However, BPS wells have decline rates as high as 85% over the first 3 years of their lives, and primary recovery factors typically range from 3% to 10% of original oil in place. Given the low initial recovery rates, even small incremental productivity improvements could dramatically increase technically recoverable oil in the BPS. One potential solution is enhanced oil recovery (EOR) using gas injection, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) or hydrocarbon (HC) gases. While commonly used in conventional reservoirs, CO2 EOR in unconventional tight oil reservoirs has been limited to pilot tests. EOR using rich gas (mixture of methane, ethane, and propane) has also been employed in numerous pilots in several unconventional plays and has recently been successfully applied in the Eagle Ford play. If successful, large-scale gas-based EOR in the BPS could dramatically increase oil productivity and recovery factors and extend the life of the play for decades. While CO2 may be a technically suitable working fluid for EOR in the BPS, supplies are limited and costs for using CO2 in EOR pilots are prohibitively high. Meanwhile, produced gas flaring has presented challenges for BPS operators in North Dakota. Analysis conducted by the North Dakota Pipeline Authority indicates that the current gas-gathering infrastructure in North Dakota is insufficient to accommodate all of the associated gas that is produced from the BPS. The geographically isolated location of North Dakota relative to large natural gas markets, combined with suppressed natural gas prices, has made it economically challenging for industry to invest capital in expanding gas-gathering infrastructure in the state. These circumstances led to a research program conducted by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) in partnership with Liberty Resources Management Company LLC (LR) to examine the potential to use rich gas injection for EOR and mitigate flaring. A rich gas EOR pilot test was designed and executed by LR at its Stomping Horse development area in Williams County, North Dakota. From July 2018 through May 2019, a total of 160 million standard cubic feet (MMscf) of rich produced gas was injected into the BPS using five different wells in a sequential injection strategy. LR’s Leon–Gohrick drill spacing unit (DSU) was used as the test site. Regulatory oversight was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC). Technical support was provided by the EERC through a series of laboratory, modeling, and field-based activities, and additional post-pilot research activities incorporated learnings from the test, developed new laboratory data, improved fracture modeling methods, and developed machine learning and big data analytics. The results from the Stomping Horse rich gas EOR pilot activities indicate that developing an effective, economical EOR approach for the BPS will require more field tests. Another key lesson learned from the Stomping Horse tests is that detailed pre- and posttest data on reservoir conditions and fluids production are essential. Robust reservoir characterization provides information that is crucial to creating realistic geomodels and conducting valid dynamic simulations of potential EOR scenarios. A detailed understanding of the completions and production history of offset wells is also necessary for valid test result interpretations. This knowledge is essential to designing the operational parameters of injectivity tests and interpreting the results. A conformance control strategy is also essential to success. Laboratory-based examinations of rich gas interactions with reservoir fluids and rocks were conducted, with an emphasis on determining the ability to mobilize oil in the tight reservoir rocks and shales of the BPS. Injection fluid composition was shown to have a positive impact on reducing reservoir oil minimum miscibility pressure (MMP), reducing interfacial tension (IFT), and altering wettability. IFT and contact angle measurements demonstrated that wettability can be altered in the presence of rich gas, suggesting the potential to improve oil recovery. Iterative modeling of surface infrastructure and reservoir performance using data generated by the various project activities was conducted. A geologic model of the Stomping Horse area was built; history-matched oil, gas, and water production was used in simulations of various EOR scenarios. Early programmatic modeling results were used to support LR’s design and operation of the EOR pilot and to provide insight regarding optimization of future commercial-scale BPS EOR design and operations. Post-pilot modeling focused on alternative methods of understanding complex fracture networks and accelerating simulation time. These led to improved simulation run times and provide excellent history-matching results. Several of these iterative models were used as the bases for developing algorithms into machine learning and big data analytics. History matching in reservoir simulation is time-consuming and computer processing-intensive. Machine learning algorithms were created, and an automated history-matching tool was developed. A large set of synthetic reservoir simulations were created to generate well responses (oil, gas, and water production, well bottomhole pressure [BHP], and tracer or propane breakthrough) for a set of EOR operating parameters that included offset well status (open or closed), injectate (rich gas or propane), injection rate, and injection well BHP. A user interface was developed to provide real-time visualization. Machine learning-based models were developed to provide rapid forecasting of well performance given a set of user-defined EOR operating parameters. These predictive models allow the user to modify the offset well status, injection rate, and injection well BHP and rapidly forecast future production performance. The combination of real-time visualization tools with real-time forecasting tools provides a framework for real-time control—operational changes that the EOR site operator can enact (e.g., changing gas injection rates) to affect the observed performance and potentially improve the EOR outcome. There is great reason to be optimistic about the future of EOR in the Bakken. The results of the laboratory studies suggest significant potential for high rates of oil mobilization using produced field gas injection under the right conditions. The results of the lab studies, combined with rigorous statistical analysis of well production data and associated modeling efforts, confirm the notion that fluid mobility within the reservoir is controlled by fractures. As more knowledge is gained about the nature and distribution of fracture networks in the Bakken, the industry will be in a better position to predict and, ultimately, influence fluid mobility. New field tests are necessary to develop a more complete understanding of those conditions. Thoughtful and creatively engineered field tests within a well-characterized geologic setting will yield the fundamental knowledge needed to take Bakken oil production to the next level. This subtask was cofunded through the EERC–U.S. Department of Energy Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission’s Oil and Gas Research Program and Computer Modelling Group.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development and Field Testing Novel Natural Gas Surface Process Equipment for Replacement of Water as Primary Hydraulic Fracturing Fluid (Final Report)

Southwest Research Institute® (SwRI ® ), Schlumberger Technology Corporation (SLB), and Chevron Corporation ® (Chevron) developed a novel, optimized, and lightweight process for natural gas (NG) to replace water as a low-cost fracturing medium with a low environmental impact. Hydraulic fracturing is used to increase oil and NG production by injecting high-pressure fluid, primarily water, into a rock formation, which fractures the rock and releases trapped oil and NG. This method was developed to increase yield and make feasible production areas that would not otherwise be viable for large-scale oil and NG extraction using traditional drilling technologies. Since the fracturing fluid is composed of approximately 90% water, one of the principal drawbacks to hydraulic fracturing is its excessive water use and associated large environmental footprint. According to recent data collected at fracture sites within the United States, fracturing applications in North America can consume as much as 9 million gallons of water per well. During the fracturing process, some of the fracturing fluid is permanently lost and the portion that is recovered is contaminated by both fracturing chemicals and dissolved solids from the formation. The recovered water or flow-back represents a significant environmental challenge, as it must be treated before it can be reintroduced into the natural water system. Although there is some recycling for future fracturing, the majority of the flow-back water is hauled from the well site to a treatment facility or to an injection well for permanent underground disposal. To mitigate these issues, an optimized, lightweight and modular surface process using NG to replace a majority of the water was developed as a cost-effective and environmentally clean fracturing fluid. Using NG will result in significantly less consumption since the gas that is injected as a fracturing fluid will be mixed with the formation gas and extracted as if it were from the formation itself. This process will minimize the collection, waste, and treatment of large amounts of water and will reduce the environmental impact of transporting and storing the fracturing fluid. There are two major steps involved in utilizing NG as the primary fracturing medium: (1) increasing the supply pressure of NG to wellhead pressures suitable for fracturing and (2) mixing the required chemicals and proppant needed for the fracturing process at these elevated pressures. The second step (NG-proppant mixing at elevated pressures) still requires demonstration; but very similar processes have been demonstrated in the field with other gases such as nitrogen (N 2 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). However, the first step (a compact, on-site unit for generating high-pressure NG at costs feasible for fracturing) has not been developed and is currently not commercially available. Due to the inherent compressibility of NG, more energy is required to compress the gas than what is required to pump water (or other incompressible liquids) to the very high pressure required for downhole injection. This project aimed to develop a novel, hybrid method to overcome this challenge. The project accomplishments and findings are discussed in this report. Ultimately, the research and development efforts described herein demonstrate that fracturing with NG foam is a feasible alternative to using water.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2024

Structural, Electrochemical, and (De)lithiation Mechanism Investigation of Cation-Disordered Rocksalt and Spinel Hybrid Nanomaterials in Lithium-Ion Batteries

Significant demand for lithium-ion batteries necessitates alternatives to Co- and Ni-based cathode materials. Cation-disordered materials using earth-abundant elements are being explored as promising candidates. Here, in this paper, we demonstrate a coprecipitation synthetic approach that allows direct preparation of disordered rocksalt Li 2.4 Fe 1.0 Ti 1.0 O 4.7 (r-LFTO·C) and spinel structured hybrid Li 0.5 Fe 1.0 Ti 0.9 O 3.2 ·C (s-LFTO·C) nanoparticles with a conformal conductive carbon coating. High-angle annular dark-field imaging coupled with electron energy loss spectroscopy mapping shows uniform Fe/Ti distribution with minor compositional variation among particles. Cation disorder was confirmed for both of the materials at an atomic level, with a short-range order more pronounced in r-LFTO·C. Operando X-ray absorption spectroscopy, ex situ hard X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, ex situ soft X-ray absorption spectroscopy, and ex situ synchrotron X-ray diffraction were used to investigate (de)lithiation in the bulk and at the surface. Structurally, the r-LFTO·C demonstrated reversible partial Fe center migration between octahedral and tetrahedral sites during (de)lithiation. The r-LFTO·C evidenced that the redox of O was coincident with iron redox during initial electrochemical cycling, while iron redox dominated later cycling. In contrast, s-LFTO·C electrochemistry involved iron redox throughout the cycling process. The findings rationalize the differences in the electrochemistry where r-LFTO·C shows higher initial capacity yet poorer capacity retention over a voltage window where O redox can be accessed, while the s-LFTO·C shows lower initial capacity yet improved capacity retention.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗
DOE OSTI2021

Linear and Nonlinear Solvers for Simulating Multiphase Flow within Large-Scale Engineered Subsurface Systems

Simulation of multiphase flow in the subsurface is well-known to be computationally challenging. While there have been many studies that have explored approaches to overcoming these challenges, they often utilize relatively simple case studies. In this paper, we focus on the unique numerical challenges posed by modeling large-scale engineered subsurface systems, characterized by discrete features embedded in a heterogeneous natural subsurface setting. The man-made features such as shafts, tunnels, and barriers often cause multiple challenges in modeling the domain for multiphase porous media flow. This flow scenario can have a wide range of applications such as nuclear waste repositories, enhanced recovery of a petroleum reservoir, geothermal engineering, and carbon sequestration. An example of these severe numerical challenges is the case of performance assessment (PA) for Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), the only operating deep geological repository in the US, which simulates extreme material properties of bedded salt rock formation and extreme contrast due to open excavation next to the formation. The models have extremes not only of permeability and porosity but also of the constitutive models needed for multiphase flow; additionally, they have process models like salt creep closure reducing porosity over time, fracturing in clay and anhydrite interbeds of the bedded salt, gas generation from the waste materials, and unintentional human borehole intrusions in some scenarios. Numerical simulations require the solution of coupled systems of nonlinear PDEs; in our work, we use the open-source simulator PFLOTRAN which is based on Finite Volume discretization. The solution of the nonlinear equations requires use of the Newton-Raphson iteration at each time step, which entails the solution of the linearized Jacobian system at each iteration. The effects of all the processes (i.e., large number of unknowns, highly nonlinear constitutive relations, large contrasts in material properties in short distances) lead to an ill-conditioned Jacobian matrix that severely challenges traditional linear solver, i.e., stabilized biconjugate gradient with block Jacobi incomplete LU preconditioner (BCGS-ILU) leading to non-convergence for traditional Newton-Raphson nonlinear solver causing unacceptably long computation time for each model. This paper presents linear solvers such as constrained pressure residual (CPR) two-stage preconditioner with alternate-block-factorization (ABF) and quasi- implicit pressure and explicit saturation (QIMPES) decouplers and flexible generalized residual solver (FGMRES). The new general-purpose nonlinear solver, Newton trust-region dogleg Cauchy (NTRDC), is also introduced to resolve extreme nonlinearities in the models. We demonstrate the effectiveness of each method relative to the default BCGS-Newton solver. The two best cases had nearly 50 times speed-up and achieved completion of a simulation in 14 hours that never completed due to non-convergence with the default solver. We also investigate the strong scalability of each method and discuss some of the deficiencies found for Block Jacobi preconditioner using parallel domain decomposition, and node packing effects of modern processor architecture.

Preconditioner, Nonlinear, Porous media, Multiphas↗