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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

A panel analysis of groundwater use in California

We report groundwater is a relevant source of drinking and agricultural water in many regions of the world, but many aquifers have been unsustainably over-drafted and polluted. This has significant environmental, health, and economic implications. We rely on panel analysis, with small-sample corrections for cluster-robust variance estimation and hypothesis testing, to investigate the dynamics of groundwater extraction. We focus on California, yet our approach could be helpful to analyze the dynamics of groundwater extraction in other groundwater-reliant regions of the world. In California, over-reliance on groundwater has led to significant overdraft, affecting long-term water supply reliability and groundwater pumping costs. It further caused subsidence and infrastructure damage, harmed groundwater-dependent ecosystems, and threatened the sustainability of groundwater resources in the state. We use panel data of the 56 California Water Plan planning areas over the 1998–2015 period. We concentrate on agricultural and urban water use and the major water projects in the state, to provide a better understanding of the relationships between groundwater extraction and water use and supply. Results suggest that reducing agricultural water in Central California and urban water in Southern California could reduce groundwater extraction in these regions by approximately the same amount of the reduced water. Other opportunities to reduce the stress on the groundwater resources in the state are available for other regions, yet with lower benefits. Results also suggest that a decrease in deliveries from the Central Valley Project to the southern part of the Central Valley would increase groundwater extraction by approximately the same proportion. Changes in deliveries from the major water projects in the state, as well as from other sources of surface water, would also have some, yet lower impacts on groundwater extraction in the Central and Southern California.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

HIV drug resistance during antiretroviral therapy scale-up in Uganda, 2012–19: a population-based, longitudinal study

Background With scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa, increasing pretreatment HIV drug resistance has been reported; however, the broader effect of ART expansion on population-level resistance patterns remains insufficiently quantified. We aimed to estimate the longitudinal prevalence of drug resistance and resistance-conferring mutations. Methods This study used data collected as part of the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS), an open population-based census and cohort study conducted in southern Uganda. At each survey round, residents aged 15–49 years are invited to participate and receive a structured questionnaire that obtains sociodemographic, behavioural, and health information, including self-reported past and current ART use. Voluntary HIV testing is conducted using a rapid test algorithm and a venous blood sample. People with HIV provide samples for viral load quantification and deep sequencing. We analysed RCCS survey, HIV viral load, and deep sequencing (which was used to predict resistance) data from five survey rounds. The key outcomes were the population prevalence of viraemic people with HIV with non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI), nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI), protease inhibitor, or multiclass resistance among all participants (regardless of HIV serostatus) in the 2015 and 2017 surveys. Prevalence of class-specific resistance and resistance-conferring substitutions were estimated using robust log-Poisson regression. Findings Between Aug 10, 2011, and Nov 4, 2020, there were 43 361 participants in the RCCS and 7923 (18·27%) people with HIV. Over five survey rounds, 93 622 participant visits occurred, among which 17 460 (18·65%) were from people with HIV. Over the analysis period, the median age of study participants remained similar (28 years [22–35] in 2012 and 29 years [21–38] in 2019). Sufficient data were available to reliably genotype 4072 (90·03%) of 4523 participant visits from 3407 people with HIV for at least one drug. Overall population prevalence of resistance contributed by viraemic pretreatment people with HIV decreased between 2012 and 2017 from 0·56% (95% CI 0·42–0·75) to 0·25% (0·18–0·33) for NNRTI and from 0·24% (0·15–0·37) to 0·05% (0·02–0·10) for NRTI (prevalence ratio 0·44 [0·29–0·68] for NNRTI and 0·21 [0·09–0·47] for NRTI). Between 2012 and 2017, NNRTI resistance among viraemic pretreatment people with HIV increased from 4·86% (3·69–6·42) to 9·61% (7·27–12·7; prevalence ratio 1·98 [1·34–2·91]). The prevalence of NNRTI and NRTI resistance was substantially higher among viraemic treatment-experienced people with HIV (51·49% [46·24–57·34] for NNRTI and 36·46% [30·06–44·22] for NRTI in 2017) than among pretreatment people with HIV. NNRTI and NRTI resistance was predominantly attributable to rtK103N and rtM184V. inT97A was observed at a similar prevalence among viraemic treatment-experienced (9·96% [6·41–15·48]) and viraemic pretreatment (10·56% [8·01–13·93]) people with HIV; no major dolutegravir resistance mutations were observed. Interpretation Despite rising NNRTI resistance among pretreatment people with HIV, overall population prevalence of pretreatment HIV drug-resistant viraemia decreased due to increasing ART uptake and viral suppression. This finding underscores the crucial role of achieving and maintaining high ART coverage in reducing transmission of drug-resistant HIV. The high prevalence of mutations conferring resistance to components of first-line ART regimens among viraemic people with HIV is potentially concerning. Funding National Institutes of Health, Johns Hopkins University Center for AIDS Research, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Combining Computational Modeling with Reaction Kinetics Experiments for Elucidating the In Situ Nature of the Active Site in Catalysis

Microkinetic modeling based on density functional theory (DFT) derived energetics is important for addressing fundamental questions in catalysis. The quantitative fidelity of microkinetic models (MKMs), however, is often insufficient to conclusively infer the mechanistic details of a specific catalytic system. Here, this can be attributed to a number of factors such as an incorrect model of the active site for which DFT calculations are performed, deficiencies in the hypothesized reaction mechanism, inadequate consideration of the surface environment under reaction conditions, and intrinsic errors in the DFT exchange-correlation functional. Despite these limitations, we aim at developing a rigorous understanding of the reaction mechanism and of the nature of the active site for heterogeneous catalytic chemistries under reaction conditions. By achieving parity between experimental and modeling outcomes through robust parameter estimation and by ensuring coverage-consistency between DFT calculations and MKM predictions, it is possible to systematically refine the mechanistic model and, thereby, our understanding of the catalytic active site in situ.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Molecular models for creep in oriented polyethylene fibers

Highly oriented and crystalline polyetheylene (PE) fibers have a large failure stress under rapid tensile loading but exhibit significant creep at much smaller stresses that limits applications. A possible mechanism is slip of chains due to stress-enhanced, thermally activated nucleation of dislocations at chain ends in crystalline regions. Molecular dynamics simulations are used to parameterize a Frenkel–Kontorova model that provides analytic expressions for the limiting stress and activation energy for dislocation nucleation as a function of stress. Results from four commonly used hydrocarbon potentials are compared to show that the qualitative behavior is robust and estimate quantitative uncertainties. In all cases, the results can be described by an Eyring model with values of the zero-stress activation energy Ea0≈1.5 eV and activation volume V* ≈ 45 Å3 that are consistent with the experimental results for increasingly crystalline materials. The limiting yield stress is ∼8 GPa. These results suggest that activated dislocation nucleation at chain ends is an important mechanism for creep in highly oriented PE fibers.

O’Connor, Thomas C. (ORCID:0000000293930295)↗
DOE OSTI2020

How Well Do We Know the Neutron-Matter Equation of State at the Densities Inside Neutron Stars? A Bayesian Approach with Correlated Uncertainties

Here, we introduce a new framework for quantifying correlated uncertainties of the infinite-matter equation of state derived from chiral effective field theory (𝜒⁢EFT ). Bayesian machine learning via Gaussian processes with physics-based hyperparameters allows us to efficiently quantify and propagate theoretical uncertainties of the equation of state, such as 𝜒⁢EFT truncation errors, to derived quantities. We apply this framework to state-of-the-art many-body perturbation theory calculations with nucleon-nucleon and three-nucleon interactions up to fourth order in the 𝜒⁢EFT expansion. This produces the first statistically robust uncertainty estimates for key quantities of neutron stars. We give results up to twice nuclear saturation density for the energy per particle, pressure, and speed of sound of neutron matter, as well as for the nuclear symmetry energy and its derivative. At nuclear saturation density, the predicted symmetry energy and its slope are consistent with experimental constraints.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Observer-Based Nonlinear Control Scheme to Reduce Oscillations and Zero Crossing in Skid-Steer Vehicles

Motion sickness is a common condition experienced by drivers of skid-steer vehicles, primarily caused by zero crossing and oscillations in undamped systems. This study proposes an observer-based nonlinear control scheme to reduce transient oscillations and zero-crossing phenomena in skid-steer vehicles, thereby potentially alleviating motion sickness. Reducing transient oscillations and zero crossing in the transient response may alleviate motion sickness. A nonlinear damping controller is designed to improve transient response by reducing oscillations and zero-crossing. To design the controller, a reduced-order kinematic model based on coordinate transformation is developed. This transformation not only converts the system modeling into a controllable form but also enhances control performance. Modeling error is addressed by considering the distance between the center of the vehicle and the sensor location. Despite these improvements, model uncertainties and external disturbances remain, which may degrade control performance. To ensure robustness and estimate such disturbances, a high-order sliding mode observer (HOSMO) is incorporated. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated through MATLAB/Simulink and TruckMaker simulations. From the simulation results, it was shown that the proposed method reduced the mean squared error of the tracking error to within 10 % compared to the state feedback controller with the HOSMO.

Seo, Jiwon [Chung-Ang University, Seoul (Korea, Re↗
DOE OSTI2021

Regional trends and drivers of the global methane budget

Abstract The ongoing development of the Global Carbon Project (GCP) global methane (CH 4 ) budget shows a continuation of increasing CH 4 emissions and CH 4 accumulation in the atmosphere during 2000–2017. Here, we decompose the global budget into 19 regions (18 land and 1 oceanic) and five key source sectors to spatially attribute the observed global trends. A comparison of top‐down (TD) (atmospheric and transport model‐based) and bottom‐up (BU) (inventory‐ and process model‐based) CH 4 emission estimates demonstrates robust temporal trends with CH 4 emissions increasing in 16 of the 19 regions. Five regions—China, Southeast Asia, USA, South Asia, and Brazil—account for >40% of the global total emissions (their anthropogenic and natural sources together totaling >270 Tg CH 4 yr −1 in 2008–2017). Two of these regions, China and South Asia, emit predominantly anthropogenic emissions (>75%) and together emit more than 25% of global anthropogenic emissions. China and the Middle East show the largest increases in total emission rates over the 2000 to 2017 period with regional emissions increasing by >20%. In contrast, Europe and Korea and Japan show a steady decline in CH 4 emission rates, with total emissions decreasing by ~10% between 2000 and 2017. Coal mining, waste (predominantly solid waste disposal) and livestock (especially enteric fermentation) are dominant drivers of observed emissions increases while declines appear driven by a combination of waste and fossil emission reductions. As such, together these sectors present the greatest risks of further increasing the atmospheric CH 4 burden and the greatest opportunities for greenhouse gas abatement.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

BayesMT: A Probabilistic Bayesian Framework for the Seismic Moment Tensor

Moment tensors (MTs) have long been used in earthquake and explosion source analysis, and there has been a renewed interest in how they can inform us about the seismic source, particularly in the geophysical monitoring community due to its application in event identification and yield analysis. However, parameter uncertainties in seismic MT inversion are rarely available. The inverse procedure often does not quantify MT model errors such as event location, data noise and Earth model that are essential for estimating solution robustness. To address this need, we propose to adopt the Bayesian probabilistic framework to incorporate uncertainties in MT inversions. In this study, we present the theoretical background of a probabilistic Bayesian framework for MT inversion accounting for model and measurements errors and illustrate the implementation of the method using a synthetic example.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Operating Experience Data Analysis for Digital Instrumentation and Control System Reliability and Risk Assessment in Nuclear Power Plants

The implementation of advanced digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) systems in U.S. nuclear power plants (NPPs) can bring significant advancements in reliability, monitoring, and control capabilities. However, these systems also introduce new challenges, particularly in assessing risks such as common-cause failures (CCFs) and establishing robust reliability estimates for DI&C components. Addressing these challenges is critical for ensuring the safe and efficient operation of NPPs. Recently, Idaho National Laboratory was tasked by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to conduct a DI&C reliability study using operating experience data from the nuclear industry. The two operating experience data sources for the study are the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations’ Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS) and the NRC’s Licensee Event Report database which is hosted at Idaho National Laboratory at https://lersearch.inl.gov/LERSearchCriteria.aspx. This report provides a comprehensive examination of DI&C systems, including their architecture, operational advantages, and associated challenges. It reviews existing industry DI&C studies and failure mode taxonomies, along with reliability data from various industries. Through a detailed analysis of these databases, the study provides insights into DI&C system performance. Considerations should be given to incorporate DI&C failure data into the NRC's Integrated Data Collection and Coding System and updating the Reliability and Availability Data System to support ongoing DI&C reliability studies. Recommendations are also provided for modeling DI&C reliability and CCF in probabilistic risk assessment, thereby supporting risk-informed decision-making and enhancing the reliability and safety of NPPs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistically Resolved Planetary Boundary Layer Height Diurnal Variability Using Spaceborne Lidar Data

The Planetary Boundary Layer Height (PBLH) significantly impacts weather, climate, and air quality. Understanding the global diurnal variation of the PBLH is particularly challenging due to the necessity of extensive observations and suitable retrieval algorithms that can adapt to diverse thermodynamic and dynamic conditions. This study utilized data from the Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS) to analyze the diurnal variation of PBLH in both continental and marine regions. By leveraging CATS data and a modified version of the Different Thermo-Dynamics Stability (DTDS) algorithm, along with machine learning denoising, the study determined the diurnal variation of the PBLH in continental mid-latitude and marine regions. The CATS DTDS-PBLH closely matches ground-based lidar and radiosonde measurements at the continental sites, with correlation coefficients above 0.6 and well-aligned diurnal variability, although slightly overestimated at nighttime. In contrast, PBLH at the marine site was consistently overestimated due to the viewing geometry of CATS and complex cloud structures. The study emphasizes the importance of integrating meteorological data with lidar signals for accurate and robust PBLH estimations, which are essential for effective boundary layer assessment from satellite observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A KELT–TESS Eclipsing Binary in a Young Triple System Associated with the Local “Stellar String” Theia 301

HD 54236 is a nearby, wide common-proper-motion visual pair that has been previously identified as likely being very young by virtue of strong X-ray emission and lithium absorption. Here, we report the discovery that the brighter member of the wide pair, HD 54236A, is itself an eclipsing binary (EB), comprising two near-equal solar-mass stars on a 2.4 days orbit. It represents a potentially valuable opportunity to expand the number of benchmark-grade EBs at young stellar ages. Using new observations of Ca ii H and K emission and lithium absorption in the wide K-dwarf companion, HD 54236B, we obtain a robust age estimate of 225 ± 50 Myr for the system. This age estimate and Gaia proper motions show HD 54236 is associated with Theia 301, a newly discovered local “stellar string,” which itself may be related to the AB Dor moving group through shared stellar members. Applying this age estimate to AB Dor itself alleviates reported tension between observation and theory that arises for the luminosity of AB Dor C when younger age estimates are used.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Poor Old Heart of the Milky Way

Our Milky Way should host an ancient, metal-poor, and centrally concentrated stellar population, which reflects the star formation and enrichment in the few most massive progenitors that coalesced at high redshift to form the proto-Galaxy. While metal-poor stars are known to reside in the inner few kiloparsecs of our Galaxy, current data do not yet provide a comprehensive picture of such a metal-poor "heart" of the Milky Way. We use information from Gaia Data Release 3, especially the XP spectra, to construct a sample of 2 million bright (G BP < 15.5 mag) giant stars within 30° of the Galactic center (GC) with robust [M/H] estimates, δ[M/H] ≲ 0.1. For ~1.25 million stars we calculate orbits from Gaia Radial Velocity Spectrometer velocities and astrometry. This sample reveals an extensive, ancient, and metal-poor population that includes ~18,000 stars with -2.7 < [M/H] < -1.5, representing a stellar mass of ≳5 × 10 7 M ⊙ . The spatial distribution of these [M/H] < -1.5 stars has a Gaussian extent of only σ R$_{GC}$ around the GC, with most orbits confined to the inner Galaxy. At high orbital eccentricities, there is clear evidence for accreted halo stars in their pericentral orbit phase. Most stars show [α/Fe] enhancement and [Al/Fe]–[Mn/Fe] abundances expected for an origin in the more massive portions of the proto-Galaxy. Stars with [M/H] < -2 show no net rotation, whereas those with [M/H] ~ -1 are rotation dominated. These central, metal-poor stars most likely predate the oldest disk population (τ age ≈ 12.5 Gyr), which implies that they formed at z ≳ 5, forging the proto-Milky Way.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comparison of planetary boundary layer height from ceilometer with ARM radiosonde data

Abstract. Ceilometer measurements of aerosol backscatter profiles have been widely used to provide continuous planetary boundary layer height (PBLHT) estimations. To investigate the robustness of ceilometer-estimated PBLHT under different atmospheric conditions, we compared ceilometer- and radiosonde-estimated PBLHTs using multiple years of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) ceilometer and balloon-borne sounding data at ARM fixed-location atmospheric observatories and from ARM mobile facilities deployed around the world for various field campaigns. These observatories cover from the tropics to the polar regions and over both ocean and land surfaces. Statistical comparisons of ceilometer-estimated PBLHTs from the Vaisala CL31 ceilometer data with radiosonde-estimated PBLHTs from the ARM PBLHT-SONDE Value-added Product (VAP) are performed under different atmospheric conditions including stable and unstable atmospheric boundary layer, low-level cloud-free conditions, and cloudy conditions at these ARM observatories. Under unstable conditions, good comparisons are found between ceilometer- and radiosonde-estimated PBLHTs at ARM low- and mid-latitude land observatories. However, it is still challenging to obtain reliable PBLHT estimations over ocean surfaces even using radiosonde data. Under stable conditions, ceilometer- and radiosonde-estimated PBLHTs have weak correlations. We compare different PBLHT estimations utilizing the Heffter, the Liu–Liang, and the bulk Richardson number methods applied to radiosonde data with ceilometer-estimated PBLHT. We find that ceilometer-estimated PBLHT compares better with the Liu–Liang method under unstable conditions and compares better with the bulk Richardson number method under stable conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1980

Procedure M - An advanced procedure for stratified area estimation using Landsat

Procedure M is a systematic approach to processing multispectral scanner data for classification and acreage estimation. The procedure incorporates a statistically robust mechanism for estimation while utilizing component technologies that are based on the physically expected or measured responses of the canopy, atmosphere and sensor. This paper describes Procedure M in the context of large-area agricultural applications, emphasizing three specific configurations: for winter wheat, spring small grains, and corn and soybeans.

Holmes, Q. A.↗