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At least 217 records · Page 12

Requirements for psychological models to support design: Towards ecological task analysis

Cognitive engineering is largely concerned with creating environmental designs to support skillful and effective human activity. A set of necessary conditions are proposed for psychological models capable of supporting this enterprise. An analysis of the psychological nature of the design product is used to identify a set of constraints that models must meet if they can usefully guide design. It is concluded that cognitive engineering requires models with resources for describing the integrated human-environment system, and that these models must be capable of describing the activities underlying fluent and effective interaction. These features are required in order to be able to predict the cognitive activity that will be required given various design concepts, and to design systems that promote the acquisition of fluent, skilled behavior. These necessary conditions suggest that an ecological approach can provide valuable resources for psychological modeling to support design. Relying heavily on concepts from Brunswik's and Gibson's ecological theories, ecological task analysis is proposed as a framework in which to predict the types of cognitive activity required to achieve productive behavior, and to suggest how interfaces can be manipulated to alleviate certain types of cognitive demands. The framework is described in terms, and illustrated with an example from the previous research on modeling skilled human-environment interaction.

Kirlik, Alex↗

Telerobotic system performance measurement - Motivation and methods

A systems performance-based strategy for modeling and conducting experiments relevant to the design and performance characterization of telerobotic systems is described. A developmental testbed consisting of a distributed telerobotics network and initial efforts to implement the strategy described is presented. Consideration is given to the general systems performance theory (GSPT) to tackle human performance problems as a basis for: measurement of overall telerobotic system (TRS) performance; task decomposition; development of a generic TRS model; and the characterization of performance of subsystems comprising the generic model. GSPT employs a resource construct to model performance and resource economic principles to govern the interface of systems to tasks. It provides a comprehensive modeling/measurement strategy applicable to complex systems including both human and artificial components. Application is presented within the framework of a distributed telerobotics network as a testbed. Insight into the design of test protocols which elicit application-independent data is described.

Kondraske, George V.↗

Simulated Students and Classroom Use of Model-Based Intelligent Tutoring

Two educational uses of models and simulations: 1) Students create models and use simulations ; and 2) Researchers create models of learners to guide development of reliably effective materials. Cognitive tutors simulate and support tutoring - data is crucial to create effective model. Pittsburgh Science of Learning Center: Resources for modeling, authoring, experimentation. Repository of data and theory. Examples of advanced modeling efforts: SimStudent learns rule-based model. Help-seeking model: Tutors metacognition. Scooter uses machine learning detectors of student engagement.

Koedinger, Kenneth R.↗

Contributions of Solar + Storage to Future Power Needs

The costs of solar photovoltaics (PV) have been dropping in recent years, leading to increasing installations of solar PV systems and growing interest in how the technology will impact the electric grid. Additionally, as battery costs decline, there is increasing interest in understanding the benefits and limitations of battery storage for the grid as well as potential co-benefits of coupling battery storage and photovoltaics. This paper presents recent methodological developments to more accurately represent the value and limitations of coupled PV and battery systems in capacity expansion models. These are demonstrated using the Resource Planning Model (RPM), which co-optimizes capacity investments, transmission investments, and reduced-order dispatch through 2045. We simulate the evolution of the generation and transmission system in the Western Interconnection both with and without a coupled PV and battery technology option under two core scenarios - a baseline scenario and a high renewable penetration scenario - coupled with sensitivities assuming low and mid PV and battery cost projections. We analyze the degree to which a variety of configurations of coupled PV + Battery systems are able to meet future electricity needs, under which system conditions this coupled technology becomes beneficial to the electric grid and identify the displaced technologies when coupled solar and storage is introduced into the model. We find that capturing the benefits of co-locating these systems becomes increasingly important as the penetration of solar PV rises, and that in particular it is important to accurately capture the ability of these technologies to shift energy, provide firm capacity, and reduce expected curtailment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Development of an Interactive Valuation Model for Distributed Energy Resource Value: Cooperative Research and Development (Final Report)

The Oklahoma Office of the Secretary of Energy and Environment (OSEE) seeks to address perceived challenges and barriers to the deployment of distributed energy generation resources (DERs), including solar and other technologies, in the state of Oklahoma. The Scope of Work (SOW) associated with CRD-18-762 covers two tasks: (1) Interactive Valuation Model Requirements Document and (2) Consumer Protection Assessment. Follow-on work was completed under a separate CRADA (CRD-19-00788).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Integrated Resource Supply-Demand-Routing Model for the COVID-19 Crisis

As part of the Department of Energy response to the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic of 2020, a modeling effort was sponsored by the DOE Office of Science. Through this effort, an integrated planning framework was developed whose capabilities were demonstrated with the combination of a treatment resource demand model and an optimization model for routing supplies. This report documents this framework and models, and an application involving ventilator demands and supplies in the continental United States. The goal of this application is to test the feasibility of implementing nationwide ventilator sharing in response to the COVID-19 crisis. Multiple scenarios were run using different combinations of forecasted and observed patient streams, and it is demonstrated that using a "worst-case forecast for planning may be preferable to best mitigate supply-demand risks in an uncertain future. There is also a brief discussion of model uncertainty and its implications for the results.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Highlights of Space Weather Tools and Resources at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

In this presentation, we showcase a diverse array of tools and resources offered by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) to advance space weather research and support space weather services. Highlights include the Run-on-Request (RoR) and continuous run simulation services, the multi-purpose integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) system (has been used for space weather monitoring, anomaly resolution, and education), space weather event database DONKI, the validation tool called CAMEL, and various scoreboard activities serving as model validation efforts before a space weather event/condition occurs (this type of pre-event validation enhances the accuracy and credibility of space weather predictions from the community). In addition, CCMC’s is an active participant providing strong support for NASA’s Heliophysics Big Year activities. Above all, our team welcomes collaborations in the broad range of áreas. Through this presentation, we aim to inspire engagement and collaboration among latinoamerican scientific communities and CCMC.

Yihua Zheng↗

Orientation to NPHR: Scripts for Training

The IAEA is training staff to train member states to use the Nuclear Power Human Resources (NPHR) model, developed at LANL, to examine their human resource plans. Part of the NPHR training involves orienting users to the files used by NPHR, namely the data file and the model files. To assist the IAEA trainers, the scripts in this document were developed for conducting the orientation sections. The scripts are intended to be used as resources for the trainers to develop their ability to deliver the orientation and not as scripts to be read to a training workshop. The scripts are accompanied by video recordings to illustrate what the trainers will show participants during the orientation.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Power System Modeling for the Study of High Penetration of Distributed Photovoltaic Energy

Many conventional power systems are evolving due to the growth of renewable energy and distributed energy resources (DERs). Modeling the interplay of transmission and distribution systems is critical to analyze how DERs impact a system’s conventional operation and which electric infrastructure improvements are needed to achieve a balance between centralized generation and DERs. This article describes the process, tools, and resources used to model electric power systems with a centralized infrastructure in an isolated context and limited access to actual utility data. Photovoltaic systems installed on residential rooftops were the main design option. This work broadened the typical power system modeling to include planning and social considerations. This integrative engineering-social method allows for interdisciplinary teams to work in the development of a model as part of broader design goals for a renewable-dominant energy system. The Puerto Rico electric power system was used as a case study to demonstrate the process. The integrative engineering-social perspective in developing the model and the actions to manage data limitations are aspects that could be followed in other locations with aggressive renewable energy goals and where utility data are not readily available.

Cuello-Polo, Gustavo↗

SCUC-DER Integration Report: Integrating Distributed Energy Resources (DER) Using Advanced Unit Commitment Models and DER Aggregation Methodologies

Distributed energy resources (DERs) are continuing to grow due to regulatory, policy, and market shifts, and it needs to be ensured that small DERs are given a level playing field with traditional resources. Legacy market processes such as unit-commitment problems were designed for a power grid consisting largely of centralized power plants. In contrast, DERs consist of many small devices with distinct operating characteristics that may or may not be connected at the transmission interconnection points, limiting their visibility to the independent system operators (ISOs) who operate wholesale electricity markets. This report details the development and initial results from a simulation platform that integrates state-of-the-art security-constrained unit commitment software, detailed feeder models, and a DER aggregator model to quantify potential DER integration issues. Quantitative results to date illustrate potential infeasible scheduling solutions from SCUC when the DERA includes aggregations of energy-limited energy storage resources. Likewise, if aggregations are not penalized for dispatch deviations, they may have incentives to deviate from the SCUC-determined resource schedules. Assumptions about the amount of aggregated demand response resources (DRRs) and the ability of DERAs to follow profit incentives have an important impact – DRRs have significant flexibility and can typically feasibly meet their SCUC schedule, but on the other hand, their profit incentives can cause unscheduled increases in load before and after DRR dispatch. Computation time results on the SCUC solver and simulation platform only show a modest increase in SCUC solution time as the number of DERAs is increased, but results to date only reflect the RTS-GMLC test system; results may show more significant solver slowdown in larger transmission systems. The largest contribution to simulation time is attributed to the DERA offer generation method, which is suggested for future improvements.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Techno-economic analysis of renewable energy generation at the South Pole

Transitioning from fossil-fuel power generation to renewable energy generation and energy storage in remote locations has the potential to reduce both carbon emissions and cost. Here, this study presents a techno-economic analysis for implementation of a hybrid renewable energy system at the South Pole in Antarctica, which currently hosts several high-energy physics experiments with nontrivial power needs. A tailored model of resource availability and economics for solar photovoltaics, wind turbine generators, lithium-ion energy storage, and long-duration energy storage at this site is explored in different combinations with and without existing diesel energy generation. The Renewable Energy Integration and Optimization (REopt) platform is used to determine the optimal system component sizing and the associated system economics and environmental benefit. We find that the least-cost system includes all three energy generation sources and lithium-ion energy storage. For an example steady-state load of 170 kW, this hybrid system includes 180 kW-DC of photovoltaic panels, 570 kW of wind turbines, and a 3.4 MWh lithium-ion battery energy storage system. This system reduces diesel consumption by 95% compared to an all -diesel configuration, resulting in approximately 1200 metric tons of carbon footprint avoided annually. Over the course of a 15-year analysis period the reduced diesel usage leads to a net savings of 57 million United States dollars, with a time to payback of approximately two years. All the scenarios modeled show that the transition to renewables is highly cost effective under the unique economics and constraints of this extremely remote site.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Preliminary Gap Analysis of Existing IEEE 1547 and IEEE 2800 Standards Towards GFM Technology

This document describes the tests that are conducted on generic grid-forming (GFM) distributed energy resource (DER) and inverter-based resource (IBR) models to check if the performance of the model aligns respectively with the IEEE Std 1547 TM -2018 and IEEE Std 2800 TM -2022 requirements. For the IEEE Std 1547 TM -2018 requirements, specifically the tests related to volt-var requirements and frequency droop requirements are conducted. For the IEEE Std 2800 TM -2022 requirements, specifically the tests conducted are related to reactive- power-voltage control requirements, active-power-frequency response requirements, voltage disturbance ride through requirements and phase jump ride through requirements. This is an initial draft/document. There are many more tests still yet to be done to further verify if the existing standards have a gap or inadvertent barrier to GFM technology.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Storm DEPART(Damage Estimate Prediction And Recovery Tool)

Damage prediction, materials needed, and resource allocation modeling capability in order to support pre-incident planning and preparation by predicting damage to the power generation capacity, transmission grids, distribution networks, and communications assets. The capabilities will be developed by multiple factors to include wind bands, storm surge, and flooding forecasts to participant’s assets which will result in a report of predicted damages. Additional factors to include available participants infrastructure data to include class, age, construction, location, wind rating, and additional information not in the public domain. Based on predicted damages, the output will be a bill of materials (BOM) to support short-term recovery operations. The extensiveness and level of detail for this BOM will depend on the replacement configuration specifications provided for each individual participant asset. Any limiting factors for the model will be applied related supply chain and resource constraints.

Klett, Mary↗

Adaptive resource allocation for surrogate modeling of systems comprised of multiple disciplines with varying fidelity

We present an adaptive algorithm for constructing surrogate models for integrated systems composed of a set of coupled components. With this goal we introduce ‘coupling’ variables with a priori unknown distributions that allow approximations of each component to be built independently. Once built, the surrogates of the components are combined and used to predict system-level quantities of interest (QoI) at a fraction of the cost of interrogating the full system model. We use a greedy experimental design procedure, based upon a modification of Multi-Index Stochastic Collocation (MISC), to minimize the error of the combined surrogate. This is achieved by refining each component surrogate in accordance with its relative contribution to error in the approximation of the system-level QoI. Our adaptation of MISC is a multi-fidelity procedure that can leverage ensembles of models of varying cost and accuracy, for one or more components, to produce estimates of system-level QoI. Several numerical examples demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach on systems involving feed-forward and feedback coupling. For a fixed computational budget, the proposed algorithm is able to produce approximations that are orders of magnitude more accurate than approximations that treat the integrated system as a black-box.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗