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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1999

Neural Network and Regression Approximations Used in Aircraft Design

NASA Lewis Research Center's CometBoards Test Bed was used to create regression and neural network models for a High-Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) aircraft. Both approximation models that replaced the actual analysis tool predicted the aircraft response in a trivial computational effort. The models allow engineers to quickly study the effects of design variables on constraint and objective values for a given aircraft configuration. For example, an engineer can change the engine size by 1000 pounds of thrust and quickly see how this change affects all the output values without rerunning the entire simulation. In addition, an engineer can change a constraint and use the approximation models to quickly reoptimize the configuration. Generating the neural network and the regression models is a time-consuming process, but this exercise has to be carried out only once. Furthermore, an automated process can reduce calculations substantially.

Patnaik, Surya N.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Cascade Optimization Strategy with Neural Network and Regression Approximations Demonstrated on a Preliminary Aircraft Engine Design

A preliminary aircraft engine design methodology is being developed that utilizes a cascade optimization strategy together with neural network and regression approximation methods. The cascade strategy employs different optimization algorithms in a specified sequence. The neural network and regression methods are used to approximate solutions obtained from the NASA Engine Performance Program (NEPP), which implements engine thermodynamic cycle and performance analysis models. The new methodology is proving to be more robust and computationally efficient than the conventional optimization approach of using a single optimization algorithm with direct reanalysis. The methodology has been demonstrated on a preliminary design problem for a novel subsonic turbofan engine concept that incorporates a wave rotor as a cycle-topping device. Computations of maximum thrust were obtained for a specific design point in the engine mission profile. The results (depicted in the figure) show a significant improvement in the maximum thrust obtained using the new methodology in comparison to benchmark solutions obtained using NEPP in a manual design mode.

Hopkins, Dale A.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Design Sensitivity for a Subsonic Aircraft Predicted by Neural Network and Regression Models

A preliminary methodology was obtained for the design optimization of a subsonic aircraft by coupling NASA Langley Research Center s Flight Optimization System (FLOPS) with NASA Glenn Research Center s design optimization testbed (COMETBOARDS with regression and neural network analysis approximators). The aircraft modeled can carry 200 passengers at a cruise speed of Mach 0.85 over a range of 2500 n mi and can operate on standard 6000-ft takeoff and landing runways. The design simulation was extended to evaluate the optimal airframe and engine parameters for the subsonic aircraft to operate on nonstandard runways. Regression and neural network approximators were used to examine aircraft operation on runways ranging in length from 4500 to 7500 ft.

Hopkins, Dale A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Testing of a Fiber Optic Wear, Erosion and Regression Sensor

The nature of the physical processes and harsh environments associated with erosion and wear in propulsion environments makes their measurement and real-time rate quantification difficult. A fiber optic sensor capable of determining the wear (regression, erosion, ablation) associated with these environments has been developed and tested in a number of different applications to validate the technique. The sensor consists of two fiber optics that have differing attenuation coefficients and transmit light to detectors. The ratio of the two measured intensities can be correlated to the lengths of the fiber optic lines, and if the fibers and the host parent material in which they are embedded wear at the same rate the remaining length of fiber provides a real-time measure of the wear process. Testing in several disparate situations has been performed, with the data exhibiting excellent qualitative agreement with the theoretical description of the process and when a separate calibrated regression measurement is available good quantitative agreement is obtained as well. The light collected by the fibers can also be used to optically obtain the spectra and measure the internal temperature of the wear layer.

Korman, Valentin↗
NASA NTRS2012

Bootstrap Prediction Intervals in Non-Parametric Regression with Applications to Anomaly Detection

Prediction intervals provide a measure of the probable interval in which the outputs of a regression model can be expected to occur. Subsequently, these prediction intervals can be used to determine if the observed output is anomalous or not, conditioned on the input. In this paper, a procedure for determining prediction intervals for outputs of nonparametric regression models using bootstrap methods is proposed. Bootstrap methods allow for a non-parametric approach to computing prediction intervals with no specific assumptions about the sampling distribution of the noise or the data. The asymptotic fidelity of the proposed prediction intervals is theoretically proved. Subsequently, the validity of the bootstrap based prediction intervals is illustrated via simulations. Finally, the bootstrap prediction intervals are applied to the problem of anomaly detection on aviation data.

Kumar, Sricharan↗
NASA NTRS2015

Improved Regression Analysis of Temperature-Dependent Strain-Gage Balance Calibration Data

An improved approach is discussed that may be used to directly include first and second order temperature effects in the load prediction algorithm of a wind tunnel strain-gage balance. The improved approach was designed for the Iterative Method that fits strain-gage outputs as a function of calibration loads and uses a load iteration scheme during the wind tunnel test to predict loads from measured gage outputs. The improved approach assumes that the strain-gage balance is at a constant uniform temperature when it is calibrated and used. First, the method introduces a new independent variable for the regression analysis of the balance calibration data. The new variable is designed as the difference between the uniform temperature of the balance and a global reference temperature. This reference temperature should be the primary calibration temperature of the balance so that, if needed, a tare load iteration can be performed. Then, two temperature{dependent terms are included in the regression models of the gage outputs. They are the temperature difference itself and the square of the temperature difference. Simulated temperature{dependent data obtained from Triumph Aerospace's 2013 calibration of NASA's ARC-30K five component semi{span balance is used to illustrate the application of the improved approach.

wind tunnel testing↗
NASA NTRS2016

Automation of Flight Software Regression Testing

NASA is developing the Space Launch System (SLS) to be a heavy lift launch vehicle supporting human and scientific exploration beyond earth orbit. SLS will have a common core stage, an upper stage, and different permutations of boosters and fairings to perform various crewed or cargo missions. Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is writing the Flight Software (FSW) that will operate the SLS launch vehicle. The FSW is developed in an incremental manner based on "Agile" software techniques. As the FSW is incrementally developed, testing the functionality of the code needs to be performed continually to ensure that the integrity of the software is maintained. Manually testing the functionality on an ever-growing set of requirements and features is not an efficient solution and therefore needs to be done automatically to ensure testing is comprehensive. To support test automation, a framework for a regression test harness has been developed and used on SLS FSW. The test harness provides a modular design approach that can compile or read in the required information specified by the developer of the test. The modularity provides independence between groups of tests and the ability to add and remove tests without disturbing others. This provides the SLS FSW team a time saving feature that is essential to meeting SLS Program technical and programmatic requirements. During development of SLS FSW, this technique has proved to be a useful tool to ensure all requirements have been tested, and that desired functionality is maintained, as changes occur. It also provides a mechanism for developers to check functionality of the code that they have developed. With this system, automation of regression testing is accomplished through a scheduling tool and/or commit hooks. Key advantages of this test harness capability includes execution support for multiple independent test cases, the ability for developers to specify precisely what they are testing and how, the ability to add automation, and the ability of the harness and cases to be executed continually. This test concept is an approach that can be adapted to support other projects.

Tashakkor, Scott B.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Regression Analysis and Calibration Recommendations for the Characterization of Balance Temperature Effects

Analysis and use of temperature-dependent wind tunnel strain-gage balance calibration data are discussed in the paper. First, three different methods are presented and compared that may be used to process temperature-dependent strain-gage balance data. The first method uses an extended set of independent variables in order to process the data and predict balance loads. The second method applies an extended load iteration equation during the analysis of balance calibration data. The third method uses temperature-dependent sensitivities for the data analysis. Physical interpretations of the most important temperature-dependent regression model terms are provided that relate temperature compensation imperfections and the temperature-dependent nature of the gage factor to sets of regression model terms. Finally, balance calibration recommendations are listed so that temperature-dependent calibration data can be obtained and successfully processed using the reviewed analysis methods.

wind tunnel test↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Use of Absolute-Value Terms in Regression Modeling of Multi-Piece Force Balances

Different aspects of the use of absolute-value terms in regression models of the electrical outputs of multi-piece force balance calibration data are discussed. First, characteristics of a variety of regression model term combinations with absolute-value terms are reviewed that are currently used in the aerospace testing community to fit the gage outputs of a balance. Then, a semi-empirical test is presented that quantifies bidirectional characteristics of the balance bridge outputs. Several diagnostic methods are discussed to assess the severity of near-linear dependencies between regressors of models with absolute-value terms. In particular, connections between the linear, absolute-value, quadratic, signed quadratic, and cubic terms are studied in greater detail. Data from an automated calibration of NASAs MK29B force balance are used to illustrate the most important observations and results. Rules of thumb that variance-inflation factors be less than 10 must be relaxed when using absolute-value terms to describe bidirectional balances.

calibration analysis↗
NASA NTRS2019

Winter Wheat Yield Assessment from Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 Data: Incorporating Surface Reflectance, Through Phenological Fitting, into Regression Yield Models

A combination of Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 offers a high frequency of observations (3–5 days) at moderate spatial resolution (10–30 m), which is essential for crop yield studies. Existing methods traditionally apply vegetation indices (VIs) that incorporate surface reflectances (SRs) in two or more spectral bands into a single variable, and rarely address the incorporation of SRs into empirical regression models of crop yield. In this work, we address these issues by normalizing satellite data (both VIs and SRs) derived from NASA’s Harmonized Landsat Sentinel-2 (HLS) product, through a phenological fitting. We apply a quadratic function to fit VIs or SRs against accumulated growing degree days (AGDDs), which affects the rate of crop development. The derived phenological metrics for VIs and SRs, namely peak, area under curve (AUC), and fitting coefficients from a quadratic function, were used to build empirical regression winter wheat models at a regional scale in Ukraine for three years, 2016–2018. The best results were achieved for the model with near infrared (NIR) and red spectral bands and derived AUC, constant, linear, and quadratic coefficients of the quadratic model. The best model yielded a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.201 t/ha (5.4%) and coefficient of determination R2 = 0.73 on cross-validation.

phenological fitting↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Bingo: A Customizable Framework for Symbolic Regression with Genetic Programming

In this paper, we introduce Bingo, a flexible and customizable yet performant Python framework for symbolic regression with genetic programming. Bingo maintains a modular code structure for simple abstraction and easily swappable components. Fitness functions, selection methods, and constant optimization methods allow for easy problem-specific customization. Bingo also maintains several features for increased efficiency such as parallelism, equation simplification, and a C++ backend. We compare Bingo’s performance to other genetic programming for symbolic regression (GPSR) methods to show that it is both competitive and flexible.

David Randall↗
NASA NTRS2022

Updated Trends of the Stratospheric Ozone Vertical Distribution in the 60°S-60°N Latitude Range Based on the LOTUS Regression Model

This study presents an updated evaluation of stratospheric ozone profile trends in the 60°S - 60°N latitude range over the 2000 - 2020 period using an updated version of the Long-term Ozone Trends and Uncertainties in the Stratosphere (LOTUS) regression model that was used to evaluate such trends up to 2016 for the last WMO Ozone Assessment (2018). In addition to the derivation of detailed trends as a function of latitude and vertical coordinates, the regressions are performed with the data sets averaged over broad latitude bands, i.e., 60°S–35°S, 20°S–20°N and 35°N–60°N. The same methodology as in the last Assessment is applied to combine trends in these broad latitude bands in order to compare the results with the previous studies. Longitudinally resolved merged satellite records are also considered in order to provide a better comparison with trends retrieved from ground-based records, e.g., lidar, ozone sondes, Umkehr, microwave and Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectrometers at selected stations where long-term time series are available. The study includes a comparison with trends derived from the REF-C2 simulations of the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1). This work confirms past results showing an ozone increase in the upper stratosphere, which is now significant in the three broad latitude bands. The increase is largest in the northern and southern hemisphere midlatitudes, with ~2.2%/decade at ~2.1 hPa, and ~2.1%/decade at ~3.2 hPa respectively, compared to ~1.6%/decade at ~2.6 hPa in the tropics. New trend signals have emerged from the records, such as a significant decrease of ozone in the tropics around 35 hPa and a non-significant increase of ozone in the southern midlatitudes at about 20 hPa. Non-significant negative ozone trends are derived in the lowermost stratosphere, with the most pronounced trends in the tropics. While a very good agreement is obtained between trends from merged satellite records and the CCMI-1 REF-C2 simulation in the upper stratosphere, observed negative trends in the lower stratosphere are not reproduced by models at southern and, in particular, at northern midlatitudes, where models report an ozone increase. However, the lower stratospheric trend uncertainties are quite large, for both measured and modelled trends. Finally, 2000-2020 stratospheric ozone trends derived from the ground-based and longitudinally resolved satellite records are in reasonable agreement over the European Alpine and tropical regions, while at the Lauder station in the southern hemisphere mid-latitudes they show some differences.

Stratospheric ozone trends↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Component Level Regression Testing in a Hierarchical Architecture

The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) is an Earth system model consisting of a large suite of individual model components that can be coupled in a flexible manner to investigate a variety of Earth science issues. Specific GEOS model configurations are composed as a hierarchical collection of components based on the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). Regression testing of GEOS is currently limited to (1) full system tests that are poor at isolating specific defects and (2) a suite of unit tests which have very limited coverage. As part of our approach to improve upon the current testing situation, we have prototyped the capability to perform regression tests on individual GEOS components by leveraging and extending existing checkpoint/restart capabilities. In our implementation, each ESMF component has 3 states: Import (what it needs to run), Export (which it needs to provide to other components), and Internal (the component state proper). By capturing, Import, Export and Internal states for a given component during a ull run of GEOS, a generic driver can then rerun the component offline and compare expected exports with those that have been saved. The hierarchical structure of GEOS introduces an interesting wrinkle when trying to test components that in turn drive interacting child components. To fully isolate a parent component, we use the approach of software mocks, in which the exports of children are also saved during the initial capture run of GEOS. Then when testing the parent component, the children components are replaced by a generic mock component that produces exports from the previously saved data and ensures that that all interdependencies among children components are satisfied.

Thomas Clune↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multiobjective Constrained Symbolic Regression for Predictive Modeling of Material Creep Behavior

When creep testing is repeated on samples of the same alloy under the same parametric conditions (i.e., stress and temperature), the resulting strain/time curves can vary from each other considerably as shown in Figure 1 [1]. The time required to creep test a material to rupture can extend to the order of years. Because of this, a numerical model that can quickly analyze the incomplete results of an ongoing experiment to predict 1) the incomplete portion of the strain/time curve leading up to the rupture point and 2) the rupture point itself would be of great utility to the materials community. Such a model has the potential to save 1) the time required to finish running the experiment to rupture 2) the associated monetary cost of finishing said experiment. Furthermore, it would be advantageous if the predictive model could give a parametric function modeling strain/time curves for material scientists to investigate the impact of the temperature and stress parameters on the resulting creep behavior. This work introduces a piecewise symbolic regression algorithm to predict the remainder of the strain/time curve. Preliminary results show good model performance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Proxy quality control of biomass particles using thermogravimetric analysis and Gaussian process regression models

Abstract The temperature experienced by reactants during preparation in a reactor is a key component in determining the yield and homogeneity of usable chemical products such as biomass particles. Thermocouples with sensors can be used to monitor spatial temperature gradients within reactors but these sensors are often too expensive and/or invasive. The present work proposes a strategy to identify optimal machine learning models to infer the maximum effective temperature experienced by particles during oxidative biomass torrefaction using key thermochemical combustion parameters. The maximum rate of weight loss, the corresponding temperature, and fixed carbon content on a dry‐ash‐free basis are used as literature‐based predictor variables obtained from thermogravimetric analysis. The evaluation of 24 machine‐learning models using the standard tenfold cross‐validation method suggests that the exponential Gaussian process regression (GPR) model is the most effective, followed by other GPR models. These high‐performing GPR models were also utilized to predict the effective preparation temperature distribution of reactor‐produced biomass particles under eight conditions of varying residence time and air‐to‐biomass ratio. The effective preparation temperature and residence time of individual biomass particles were then encoded into the torrefaction severity factor and used to estimate the energy yield of the reactor output as a novel quality control method. © 2023 The Authors. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining published by Society of Industrial Chemistry and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic partition of unity networks for high–dimensional regression problems

We explore the probabilistic partition of unity network (PPOU-Net) model in the context of high-dimensional regression problems and propose a general framework focusing on adaptive dimensionality reduction. With the proposed framework, the target function is approximated by a mixture of experts model on a low-dimensional manifold, where each cluster is associated with a fixed-degree polynomial. We present a training strategy that leverages the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. During the training, we alternate between (i) applying gradient descent to update the DNN coefficients; and (ii) using closed-form formulae derived from the EM algorithm to update the mixture of experts model parameters. Under the probabilistic formulation, step (ii) admits the form of embarrassingly paralleliazable weighted least-squares solves. The PPOU-Nets consistently outperform the baseline fully-connected neural networks of comparable sizes in numerical experiments of various data dimensions. Here, we also explore the proposed model in applications of quantum computing, where the PPOU-Nets act as surrogate models for cost landscapes associated with variational quantum circuits.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Linear Regression Based Multi-fidelity Surrogate for Disturbance Amplification in Multi-phase Explosion

When simulations are very expensive and many are required, as for optimization or uncertainty quantification, a way to reduce cost is using surrogates. With multiple simulations to predict the quantity of interest, some being very expensive and accurate (high-fidelity simulations) and others cheaper but less accurate (low-fidelity simulations), it may be worthwhile to use multifidelity surrogates (MFSs). Moreover, if we can afford just a few high-fidelity simulations or experiments, MFS becomes necessary. Co-Kriging, which is probably the most popular MFS, replaces both low-fidelity and high-fidelity simulations by a single MFS. A recently proposed linear regression–based MFS (LR-MFS) offers the option to correct the LF simulations instead of correcting the LF surrogate in the MFS. When the low-fidelity simulation is cheap enough for use in an application, such as optimization, this may be an attractive option. Here, we explore the performance of LR-MFS using exact and surrogate-replaced low-fidelity simulations. The concern studied is a cylindrical dispersal of 100-μ m-diameter solid particles after detonation and the quantity of interest is a measure of the amplification of the departure from axisymmetry. We find very substantial accuracy improvements for this problem using the LR-MFS with exact low-fidelity simulations. Inspired by these results, we also compare the performance of co-Kriging to the use of Kriging to correct exact low-fidelity simulations and find a similar accuracy improvement when simulations are directly used. For this problem, further improvements in accuracy are achievable by taking advantage of inherent parametric symmetries. These findings may alert users of MFSs to the possible advantages of using exact low-fidelity simulations when this is affordable.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Prediction of Creep-Induced Strain Using a Symbolic Regression-Based Model

Material creep under high-temperature conditions limits the lifetime and safety of structural systems such as advanced nuclear reactors. Conventional creep testing is slow and often produces inconsistent results across nominally identical experiments, making lifetime prediction uncertain. Here, to address these challenges, this work develops a data-driven symbolic regression (SR) model that consolidates results from duplicate creep tests and predicts the remaining strain-time curve of an ongoing experiment. The method uses piece-wise multi-objective SR with physical constraints to generate analytic, interpretable functions describing transient creep strain. Applied to Inconel Alloy 617 data, the approach achieved relative mean absolute errors of 1.0–9.5%, providing closed-form predictions of strain evolution. These results demonstrate a first step toward reducing the duration and cost of long-term creep testing while retaining physically interpretable model forms.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗