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At least 217 records · Page 12

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DOE OSTI2021

A Machine Learns to Predict the Stability of Highly Diverse Multi-planetary Systems

Machine learning has proven to be an invaluable tool for characterizing the stability of planets in simplified planetary systems. In this work, we investigate the performance of a machine learning classifier on tightlypacked systems containing a rich diversity of planets, from Earths to Jupiters. Using information derived from short numerical simulations about a planet’s early orbital evolution and its relationship with the most massive planets in the system, we train a random forest classifier to predict instability with a > 88 percent accuracy. Our classifier relies on relative planet masses and the standard deviation of eccentricity for much of its predictive power. Most misclassified planets lie along a multi-dimensional boundary between stable and unstable planets, indicating that their early orbital evolution is ambiguous. The major reason for misclassification in this work is timescale: because our classifier uses information from only the first 137 years of simulation data, it is blind to late time interactions that cause or prevent instability. Machine learning methods like those utilized in this work provide powerful tools to complement numerical simulations across a wide range of planetary architectures.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

A RELAP5-3D Model of the Lobo Lead Loop

The goal of our research is to build upon the capability of RELAP5-3D to model molten lead systems. Molten lead has several potential uses in future advanced reactors like the lead fast reactor or fusion reactors that utilize dual-coolant lead lithium blankets. This potential for use in future generations of reactors highlights the necessity to develop molten lead models to ensure that they can accurately predict the thermohydraulic behavior. We have developed a RELAP5-3D model of the Lobo Lead Loop facility, located at the University of New Mexico, to verify the accuracy of RELAP5-3D via comparison to existing computational fluid dynamics results and analytical calculations. It was found that RELAP5-3D accurately calculated radiative heat transfer (within < 1%) when compared to theoretical calculations. In addition, pressure drop calculations done in RELAP5-3D demonstrated reasonable agreement within 20 kPa, mostly within ~7-15%, when compared to the computational fluid dynamics model of the facility developed by the University of New Mexico, and captured the dependence of pressure drop on flow velocity accurately. Finally, a hypothetical loss of flow transient was imposed on the RELAP5-3D model to determine the feasibility of performing a similar experiment with the Lobo Lead Loop. It was found that such an experiment could be possible as the RELAP5-3D model indicated that the temperatures of the fluid would not exceed limiting temperatures of the structure (1658 K) nor the maximum temperature of the electromagnetic pump inlet (823 K). Although there is not experimental data to begin validation, the model will be readily available for future validation studies when the experimental data is generated, especially as the model continues to evolve over time. Furthermore, the results so far demonstrate a promising first step in the verification/validation of the RELAP5-3D model of the Lobo Lead Loop.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Classifying and analyzing small-angle scattering data using weighted k nearest neighbors machine learning techniques

A consistent challenge for both new and expert practitioners of small-angle scattering (SAS) lies in determining how to analyze the data, given the limited information content of said data and the large number of models that can be employed. Machine learning (ML) methods are powerful tools for classifying data that have found diverse applications in many fields of science. Here, ML methods are applied to the problem of classifying SAS data for the most appropriate model to use for data analysis. The approach employed is built around the method of weighted k nearest neighbors (wKNN), and utilizes a subset of the models implemented in the SasView package (https://www.sasview.org/) for generating a well defined set of training and testing data. The prediction rate of the wKNN method implemented here using a subset of SasView models is reasonably good for many of the models, but has difficulty with others, notably those based on spherical structures. A novel expansion of the wKNN method was also developed, which uses Gaussian processes to produce local surrogate models for the classification, and this significantly improves the classification accuracy. Further, by integrating a stochastic gradient descent method during post-processing, it is possible to leverage the local surrogate model both to classify the SAS data with high accuracy and to predict the structural parameters that best describe the data. The linking of data classification and model fitting has the potential to facilitate the translation of measured data into results for both novice and expert practitioners of SAS.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Synergistic Retrieval of Temperature and Humidity Profiles from Space-Based and Ground-Based Infrared Sounders Using an Optimal Estimation Method

The atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles of the troposphere are generally measured by radiosondes and satellites, which are essential for analyzing and predicting weather. Nevertheless, the insufficient observation frequencies and low detection accuracy of the boundary layer restricts the description of atmospheric state changes by the temperature and humidity profiles. Therefore, this work focus on retrieving the temperature and humidity profiles using observations of the FengYun-4 (FY-4) Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder (GIIRS) combined with ground-based infrared spectral observations from the Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI), which are more accurate than space-based individual retrieval results and have a wider effective retrieval range than ground-based individual retrieval results. Based on the synergistic observations, which are made by matching the space-based and ground-based data with those of different spatial and temporal resolutions, a synergistic retrieval process is proposed to obtain the temperature and humidity profiles at a high frequency under clear-sky conditions based on the optimal estimation method. In this research, using the line-by-line radiative transfer model (LBLRTM) as the forward model for observing simulations, a retrieval experiment was carried out in Qingdao, China, where an AERI is situated. Taking radiosonde data as a reference for comparing the retrieval results of the temperature and humidity profiles of the troposphere, the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of the synergistic retrieval algorithm below 400 hPa is within 2 K for temperature and within 12% for relative humidity. Compared with the GIIRS individual retrieval, the RMSE of temperature and relative humidity for the synergistic method is reduced by 0.13–1.5 K and 2.7–4.4% at 500 hPa, and 0.13–2.1 K and 2.5–7.2% at 900 hPa. Moreover, the forecast index (FI) calculated from the retrieval results shows reasonable consistency with the FIs calculated from the ERA5 reanalysis and from radiosonde data. The synergistic retrieval results have higher temporal resolution than space-based retrieval results and can reflect the changes in the atmospheric state more accurately. Overall, the results demonstrated the promising potential of the synergistic retrieval of temperature and humidity profiles at high accuracy and high temporal resolution under clear-sky conditions from FY-4/GIIRS and AERI.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Impact of Intake and Exhaust Ducts on the Recovery Efficiency of Heat Recovery Ventilation Systems

The heat recovery efficiency of ventilation systems utilizing heat recovery ventilators (HRVs) depends not only on the heat recovery efficiency of the HRV units themselves but also on the intake and exhaust ducts that connect the HRV units to the outside environment. However, these ducts are often neglected in heat loss calculations, as their impact on the overall heat recovery efficiency of HRV systems is often not understood and, to the knowledge of the authors, a mathematical model for the overall heat recovery efficiency of HRV systems that accounts for these ducts has not been published. In this research, a mathematical model for the overall heat recovery efficiency of HRV systems that accounts for the intake and exhaust ducts was derived and validated using real-life data. The model-predicted decrease in heat recovery efficiency due to the ducts was in reasonable agreement (relative error within 20%) with the real-life measurements. The results suggest that utilizing this model allows for more correct ventilation heat loss calculations compared to using the heat recovery efficiency of the HRV unit alone, but more field studies are needed to verify the accuracy of this model in a wide range of applications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Improving the Accuracy of Variational Quantum Eigensolvers with Fewer Qubits Using Orbital Optimization

Near-term quantum computers will be limited in the number of qubits on which they can process information as well as the depth of the circuits that they can coherently carry out. To date, experimental demonstrations of algorithms such as the Variational Quantum Eigensolver (VQE) have been limited to small molecules using minimal basis sets for this reason. In this work we propose incorporating an orbital optimization scheme into quantum eigensolvers wherein a parametrized partial unitary transformation is applied to the basis functions set in order to reduce the number of qubits required for a given problem. The optimal transformation is found by minimizing the ground state energy with respect to this partial unitary matrix. Through numerical simulations of small molecules up to 16 spin orbitals, we demonstrate that this method has the ability to greatly extend the capabilities of near-term quantum computers with regard to the electronic structure problem. Finally, we find that VQE paired with orbital optimization consistently achieves lower ground state energies than traditional VQE when using the same number of qubits and even frequently achieves lower ground state energies than VQE methods using more qubits.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

Embedding ceramic components in metal structures with hybrid directed energy deposition

The combined benefit of both additive and subtractive manufacturing within the same gantry system enables hybrid directed energy deposition to create complex geometries with smooth surface finish and superior dimensional accuracy. Moreover, with layer-by-layer access to the structure during both the addition and subtraction of material, the insertion of components is now possible, assuming the components can survive the high temperatures associated with the subsequent metal deposition. Ceramic inserts are of interest for a variety of reasons including (1) to create complex interwoven ductile/brittle composites for ballistics or high-temperature applications or (2) to integrate high-temperature strain or temperature sensors protected within ceramic substrate subsumed into a larger metal structure. Here, in this work, stainless steel substrates were machined to create an internal cavity for the insertion of a ceramic component. During the investigation of several different over-the-ceramic deposition strategies, components were inserted, and different process sequences were allowed to continue to envelop the inserted ceramic with varying success. Unmelted powder was used to serve both as a thermal buffer and to provide a flush surface upon which the laser cladding could continue. Subsequent depositions were attempted with both dry and wet powder (addition of machining coolant to wet). The wet powder has previously been demonstrated to not significantly impact the mechanical properties of a final structure and provided a thermal barrier to protect the ceramic piece from the extreme temperatures of the final metal deposition. The wetting of the powder provided stability and minimized displacement caused by the powder flow from the laser cladding head. Finally, the use of an oblique angle for laser cladding allowed for the redirection of some fraction of the introduced thermal energy away from the ceramic component and, consequently, improved the survival of the ceramic inserts. With this combination of techniques, ceramic inserts survived full embedding within a 3D-printed stainless steel structure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Fluid structure interaction of a subaqueous pendulum: Analyzing the effect of wake correction via large eddy simulations

The dynamic behavior of a subaqueous cylindrical pendulum and corresponding flow dynamics are investigated. The objectives were twofold: (i) to examine whether the two-dimensional model equations sufficiently capture the three-dimensional dynamics and (ii) to investigate the emerging three-dimensional vortical flow structures. Large eddy simulations with two-way coupling fluid structure interaction were carried out using the immersed boundary method to simulate the motion of the pendulum and its interactions with the initially stagnant water. The resulting pendulum motion is compared against measured data obtained in a series of experimental tests to validate the simulation results and the model equations with and without wake corrections. An analysis of the flow vorticity revealed the development of a vortex ring during the first swing and the formation of tip vortices. The evolution of the vortex rings emerging from the motion of the subaqueous cylindrical pendulum was visualized using Q-criteria showing a reasonable agreement with vortical structures observed in the experiment using particle imaging velocimetry. The hydrodynamic moments acting on the simulated pendulum and the moments calculated from the model equations are analyzed. Using the insights from these numerical simulations, a modification of the wake correction is proposed to enhance the accuracy of the rate of decay and period. The transient effect of coherent flow on pendulum dynamics, especially the added mass effect, is discussed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning-enhanced model-based scenario optimization for DIII-D

Abstract Scenario development in tokamaks is an open area of investigation that can be approached in a variety of different ways. Experimental trial and error has been the traditional method, but this required a massive amount of experimental time and resources. As high fidelity predictive models have become available, offline development and testing of proposed scenarios has become an option to reduce the required experimental resources. The use of predictive models also offers the possibility of using a numerical optimization process to find the controllable inputs that most closely achieve the desired plasma state. However, this type of optimization can require as many as hundreds or thousands of predictive simulation cases to converge to a solution; many of the commonly used high fidelity models have high computational burdens, so it is only reasonable to run a handful of predictive simulations. In order to make use of numerical optimization approaches, a compromise needs to be found between model fidelity and computational burden. This compromise can be achieved using neural networks surrogates of high fidelity models that retain nearly the same level of accuracy as the models they are trained to replicate while reducing the computation time by orders of magnitude. In this work, a model-based numerical optimization tool for scenario development is described. The predictive model used by the optimizer includes neural network surrogate models integrated into the fast Control-Oriented Transport simulation framework. This optimization scheme is able to converge to the optimal values of the controllable inputs that produce the target plasma scenario by running thousands of predictive simulations in under an hour without sacrificing too much prediction accuracy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Stastically determined experimental uncertainties in photon Doppler velocimetry (PDV) measurements

Shock-ramp experiments place high demands on the precision, accuracy, and temporal resolution of transformed velocimetry signals. To minimize uncertainty after total propagation of a shockramp experiment, ideally multiple PDV traces are used. However, each trace has some uncertainty that is a function of the PDV system and analysis of the velocimetry data. In order to determine a reasonable experimental estimate of minimum uncertainty, we calculate observed uncertainties in as-fielded PDV systems using multiple channels to sample the velocity on each shot. We also calculate the uncertainty’s sensitivity to choice of analysis methods.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multiscale assessment of North American terrestrial carbon balance

Abstract. Comparisons of carbon uptake estimates from bottom-up terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) to top-down atmospheric inversions help assess how well we understand carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial biosphere. Previous comparisons have shown varying levels of agreement between bottom-up and top-down approaches, but they have almost exclusively focused on large, aggregated scales (e.g., global or continental), providing limited insights into reasons for the mismatches. Here we explore how consistency, defined as the spread in net ecosystem exchange (NEE) estimates within an ensemble of TBMs or inversions, varies with at finer spatial scales ranging from 1∘×1∘ to the continent of North America. We also evaluate how well consistency informs accuracy in overall NEE estimates by filtering models based on their agreement with the variability, magnitude, and seasonality in observed atmospheric CO2 drawdowns or enhancements. We find that TBMs produce more consistent estimates of NEE for most regions and at most scales relative to inversions. Filtering models using atmospheric CO2 metrics causes ensemble spread to decrease substantially for TBMs, but not for inversions. This suggests that ensemble spread is likely not a reliable measure of the uncertainty associated with the North American carbon balance at any spatial scale. Promisingly, applying atmospheric CO2 metrics leads to a set of models with converging flux estimates across TBMs and inversions. Overall, we show that multiscale assessment of the agreement between bottom-up and top-down NEE estimates, aided by regional-scale observational constraints is a promising path towards identifying fine-scale sources of uncertainty and improving both ensemble consistency and accuracy. These findings help refine our understanding of biospheric carbon balance, particularly at scales relevant for informing regional carbon-climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Relativistic nonorthogonal configuration interaction: application to L 2,3 -edge X-ray spectroscopy

In this article, we develop a relativistic exact-two-component nonorthogonal configuration interaction (X2C-NOCI) for computing L-edge X-ray spectra. This article to our knowledge is the first time NOCI has been used for relativistic wave functions. A set of molecular complexes, including SF 6 , SiCl 4 and [FeCl 6 ] 3– , are used to demonstrate the accuracy and computational scaling of the X2C-NOCI method. Here, our results suggest that X2C-NOCI is able to satisfactorily capture the main features of the L 2,3 -edge X-ray absorption spectra. Excitations from the core require a large amount of orbital relaxation to yield reasonable energies and X2C-NOCI allows us to treat orbital optimization explicitly. However, the cost of computing the nonorthogonal coupling is higher than in conventional CI. Here, we propose an improved integral screening using overlap-scaled density combined with a continuous measure of the generalized Slater–Condon rules that allows us to estimate if an element is zero before attempting a two-electron integral contraction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning a Simple Interpretable Short-Range Potential for Silica

A wide array of models, spanning from computationally expensive ab initio methods to a spectrum of force-field approaches, have been developed and employed to probe silica polymorphs and understand growth processes and atomic-level dynamical transitions in silica. However, the quest for a model capable of making accurate predictions with high computational efficiency for various silica polymorphs is still ongoing. Recent developments in short-range machine-learned models, such as GAP and NNPScan, have shown promise in providing reasonable descriptions of silica, but their computational cost remains high compared to force fields such as BKS which are based on simple interpretable functional forms. Here, in this study, we build on the recent success of our reinforcement learning (RL) workflow to derive a new set of optimal parameters for a promising short-range BKS-based model proposed by Soules. We use RL to navigate the eight-dimensional parameter space of the Soules potential using an experimental training data set that includes both local and global structural features from approximately 21 experimentally realized silica polymorphs, including high density phases and porous zeolites. We compare the performance of our machine-learned ML-Soules model with other high quality models including our recent machine-learned parametrization of BKS (ML-BKS), a machine-learned potential (GAP), as well as predictions of ab initio calculations with the highly fidelity SCAN functional. The ML-Soules accurately captures the relative energetic ordering of various polymorphs as well as their structural features at a significantly reduced computational expense. The ML-Soules model also reasonably captures the structure, density, and elastic constants of quartz, as well as metastable silica polymorphs. We further discuss the limitations of the Soules functional form and propose potential enhancements, including the incorporation of additional three-body terms and/or the utilization of different short-ranged functional forms to achieve greater accuracy for both global and local features in the modeling of silica while retaining low computational cost.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

ANTARES: a new IRSN computational chain for safety analysis

Since some years, the IRSN has developed a new project to simulate accurately the interaction between neutronic and thermal hydraulic phenomena. This project called ANTARES (Advanced Neutronics and Thermal-hydraulic for the Analysis of Reactor Safety) couples the thermal hydraulic code CATHARE-3 with the 3D neutronic nodal code PARCS. The purpose of this project is to take the advantage of the complementary of these 2 codes, by the knowledge of the 3D core power distribution in CATHARE-3 (computed by PARCS) and improving the thermal hydraulic boundaries conditions in PARCS. In this way, the IRSN diversifies and enlarges its available tools to perform safety analysis with improved accuracy. The current technique usually adopted in France for the safety demonstrations for Reactivity Insertion Accident (RIA) is the so-called 'conservative' approach, which consists of reducing all the feedback (Doppler and moderator effects) and in modifying some physical quantities in such a way to increase a power peak. For this reason, these facilities ('penalties') have been implemented in ANTARES. In this paper we will give two examples of accidental transients that can be simulated with ANTARES: a Main Steam Line Break (MSLB) and an inadvertent boron dilution event. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Streamflow simulation in data-scarce basins using Bayesian and physics-informed machine learning models

Hydrologic predictions at rural watersheds are important but also challenging due to data shortage. Long short-term memory (LSTM) networks are a promising machine learning approach and have demonstrated good performance in streamflow predictions. However, due to its data-hungry nature, most LSTM applications focus on well-monitored catchments with abundant and high-quality observations. In this work, we investigate predictive capabilities of LSTM in poorly monitored watersheds with short observation records. To address three main challenges of LSTM applications in data-scarce locations, i.e., overfitting, uncertainty quantification (UQ), and out-of-distribution prediction, we evaluate different regularization techniques to prevent overfitting, apply a Bayesian LSTM for UQ, and introduce a physics-informed hybrid LSTM to enhance out-of-distribution prediction. Through case studies in two diverse sets of catchments with and without snow influence, we demonstrate that 1) when hydrologic variability in the prediction period is similar to the calibration period, LSTM models can reasonably predict daily streamflow with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency above 0.8, even with only 2 years of calibration data; 2) when the hydrologic variability in the prediction and calibration periods is dramatically different, LSTM alone does not predict well, but the hybrid model can improve the out-of-distribution prediction with acceptable generalization accuracy; 3) L2 norm penalty and dropout can mitigate overfitting, and Bayesian and hybrid LSTM have no overfitting; and 4) Bayesian LSTM provides useful uncertainty information to improve prediction understanding and credibility. In conclusion, these insights have vital implications for streamflow simulation in watersheds where data quality and availability are a critical issue.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Eject, crash, or survive: Using machine learning to predict orbital instability of exoplanetary systems

Astronomers throughout history, including titans like Kepler and Newton, have tackled planetary dynamics and orbital instability. Despite strides taken in research, understanding the evolution of planetary orbits remains an intricate, computationally expensive, and analytically unsolved problem. I apply machine learning classification methods to numerical simulations of planetary systems in order to predict the long-term fate of the planet - whether the planet remains in a stable orbit or not. My method uses the first 41.1 years (≤ 500 orbits) of data from a planet’s simulation to calculate 17 dynamically-motivated metrics; I trained my classifier on these features to predict a planet’s stability after 107 years. At 84.33%, my classifier was comparable in accuracy to pre-existing literature, despite using significantly less computational power than most other methods. In my research, I found that the standard deviation of eccentricity, mass ratios for neighboring planets, and semi-major axis ratio with the outer planet neighbor to be the most predictive features of instability. I propose reasons for the importance of these features, their role in planetary dynamics, as well as possible explanations for why some planets were misclassified. By understanding the important metrics of instability and reasons for misclassification, we can begin to understand more about system architectures, orbital motion and dynamics, and the formation and evolution of the exoplanetary systems. This is applicable in our own Solar System, and with exoplanet discovery missions such as TESS, this research becomes especially relevant in understanding the new exoplanetary systems we discover.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Eject, crash, or survive: Using machine learning to predict orbital instability of exoplanetary systems

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fast and Accurate Core Analysis by the Full-Immersion Pressure-Pulse Decay: Part 2—Practice and Demonstration

Summary This study continues the work of presenting a novel approach for making petrophysical assessments of tight core samples. This method, the full-immersion pressure-pulse decay (Hannon 2019), involves applying a rapid increase in pressure in a chamber surrounding the entire outer surface area of a cylindrical sample, shutting the system in, and monitoring the pressure decay in the chamber as it reaches a new equilibrium. A precursor article covered the numerical simulator designed to model flow through the sample, demonstrating its performance and accuracy in addition to providing a first-order comparison between the speed and shape of the pressure-decay responses of the full-immersion method with those of other similar transient methods. This study covers the parameter-estimation procedure and experimental verification through a proof-of-concept laboratory investigation. The investigations provided here demonstrate that under appropriate, achievable experimental conditions, the pressure data can be analyzed in such a way that returns an estimate of the porosity and apparent permeabilities both parallel and perpendicular to bedding from a single test performed on a single cylindrical sample. After determining these experimental conditions (the uniqueness window), this report outlines a data-inversion strategy to estimate the petrophysical properties (porosity, horizontal permeability, and vertical permeability) from each test. This strategy is put to the test through comparisons with measurements performed by a commercial core laboratory. A common set of samples recovered from an outcrop of a tight-gas sandstone formation were investigated using the full-immersion method, and their results are compared with those from conventional steady-state measurement procedures performed by the commercial laboratory. Comparisons between petrophysical characterizations of these samples, which had permeabilities between 25 nd and 2.3 μd, demonstrated close agreement in most cases. However, whereas steady-state measurements performed at the professional laboratory required 4 to 5 hours of testing time per measurement of a single permeability, similar assessments using the full-immersion technique, requiring approximately 5 to 10 minutes to complete, returned estimates of the horizontal and vertical permeability simultaneously. Additional analyses are provided to determine principal reasons of discrepancies in instances where agreement was not as strong. Based on lessons learned from these experiences, the report closes with suggestions on areas of improvement in the experimental approach. Once complete, these developments should propel this technology to fill a critical need to determine petrophysical properties (porosity and permeability) of tight rocks in a time-efficient manner and in a way that does not compromise their accuracy.

Energy & Fuels↗