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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating Leaf Area Index in Row Crops Using Wheel-Based and Airborne Discrete Return Light Detection and Ranging Data

Leaf area index (LAI) is an important variable for characterizing plant canopy in crop models. It is traditionally defined as the total one-sided leaf area per unit ground area and is estimated by both direct and indirect methods. This paper explores the effectiveness of using light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data to estimate LAI for sorghum and maize with different treatments at multiple times during the growing season from both a wheeled vehicle and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles. Linear and nonlinear regression models are investigated for prediction utilizing statistical and plant structure-based features extracted from the LiDAR point cloud data with ground reference obtained from an in-field plant canopy analyzer (indirect method). Results based on the value of the coefficient of determination ( R 2 ) and root mean squared error for predictive models ranged from ∼0.4 in the early season to ∼0.6 for sorghum and ∼0.5 to 0.80 for maize from 40 Days after Sowing to harvest.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Thermal boundary conductance between high thermal conductivity boron arsenide and silicon

Thermal boundary conductance (TBC) is important for heat dissipation in light-emitting diodes (LEDs). In this study, we predicted the TBC between the high thermal conductivity boron arsenide (BAs) and silicon (Si) by nonequilibrium molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. From the thermal conductivity accumulation function with respect to phonon frequency, the dominant phonon frequencies for heat conduction in BAs are extremely different from those in Si. However, our nonequilibrium MD simulations indicated that the TBC of the BAs/Si interface was still high compared to most other interfaces, even though there was a major frequency mismatch in the thermal conductivity accumulation function between BAs and Si. The primary reason for the high TBC is the overlap of phonon density of states between BAs and Si in the frequency range of 5–8 THz. The range of predicted TBC of the BAs/Si interface was between 200 and 300 MW/m2 K in the temperature range of 300–700 K, and the values of the TBC were not sensitive to the temperature. We also found that the TBCs in Si/BAs and Si/Ge interfaces were close to each other considering the simulation uncertainty. This work indicates BAs as an excellent material for heat dissipation across the interfaces.

Wei, Zhiyong (ORCID:000000018686451X)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Utility of anthesis–silking interval information to predict grain yield under water and nitrogen limited conditions

Delayed silking relative to pollen shed, measured as the anthesis–silking interval (ASI, the period between pollen shed and silking), is a good indicator of response to abiotic stresses in maize ( Zea mays L.). This research was conducted to investigate how ASI is affected by nitrogen (N) and water availability and to assess the utility of ASI to indirectly predict grain yield (GY) under contrasting water and N treatments. Two experiments were conducted in Hancock, WI, in 2018 and 2019. One experiment (Diverse hybrids) included 302 hybrids resulting from the cross of diverse inbred lines by a single tester evaluated at four different treatment levels resulting from combining nonlimited and low N with nonlimited and low water treatments. The second experiment (NSS FAC) included a set of 408 hybrids derived from the cross of biparental doubled-haploid lines from 13 factorial populations and evaluated under nonlimited and low N treatments. Anthesis and silk time in growing degree days, and GY (Mg ha -1 ) were measured. Genomic prediction was assessed using a genomic best linear unbiased prediction model, and predictive ability was calculated as the correlation between genomic predictions and adjusted means in the different treatments. Predictive ability ranged from .15 to .49 for NSS FAC and from .06 to .51 for Diverse hybrids across traits and treatments. The ASI was a good indicator of stress and showed higher heritability than GY in the limited treatments for both experiments; however, it did not improve yield predictability.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2015

Temperature Sensitivity of an Atomic Vapor Cell-Based Dispersion-Enhanced Optical Cavity

Enhancement of the response of an optical cavity to a change in optical path length, through the use of an intracavity fast-light medium, has previously been demonstrated experimentally and described theoretically for an atomic vapor cell as the intracavity resonant absorber. This phenomenon may be used to enhance both the scale factor and sensitivity of an optical cavity mode to the change in path length, e.g. in gyroscopic applications. We study the temperature sensitivity of the on-resonant scale factor enhancement, S(sub o), due to the thermal sensitivity of the lower-level atom density in an atomic vapor cell, specifically for the case of the Rb-87 D(sub 2) transition. A semi-empirical model of the temperature-dependence of the absorption profile, characterized by two parameters, a(sub o)(T) and gamma(sub a)(T) allows the temperature-dependence of the cavity response, S(sub o)(T) and dS(sub o)/dT to be predicted over a range of temperature. We compare the predictions to experiment. Our model will be useful in determining the useful range for S(sub o), given the practical constraints on temperature stability for an atomic vapor cell.

Myneni, K.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Thermodynamics-guided machine learning model for predicting convective boundary layer height and its multi-site applicability

Accurate estimation of convective boundary layer height (CBLH) is vital for weather, climate, and air quality modeling. Machine learning (ML) shows promise in CBLH prediction, but input parameter selection often lacks physical grounding, limiting generalizability. This study introduces a novel ML framework for CBLH prediction, integrating thermodynamic constraints and the diurnal CBLH cycle as an implicit physical guide. Boundary layer growth is modeled as driven by surface heat fluxes and atmospheric heat absorption represented with the low tropospheric stability, using the diurnal cycle as input and output. TPOT and AutoKeras are employed to select optimal models, validated against Doppler lidar-derived CBLH data, achieving an R 2 of 0.84 across untrained years. Comparisons of eddy covariance (ECOR) and energy balance Bowen ratio (EBBR) flux measurements show the same prediction capability. Models trained on the ARM SGP C1 site with ECOR data and tested at E37 and E39 yield R 2 values of 0.79 and 0.81, respectively, demonstrating their adaptability. The ML model trained with all sites' data slightly enhances the performance compared with ML models trained over single-site data. The interquartile range for predicted CBLH is consistently narrower than that for DL-derived CBLH, reflecting lower variability in predicted CBLH compared to DL-derived CBLH, which is influenced by additional factors, which are not well represented with the model inputs. The model's generalizability across multiple sites at the ARM SGP site demonstrates its potential for transfer to greater distances, offering a scalable approach for enhancing boundary layer parameterization in atmospheric models.

Chu, Yufei [Stony Brook Univ., NY (United States)]↗
NASA NTRS1984

Measuring EUV Line Emission from the Hot Interstellar Medium

In the local interstellar medium, the presence of hot gas was inferred from measurements of oxygen VI absorption in the ultraviolet, and from diffuse emission in the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and soft X-ray regions. A spectrometer that is very sensitive to gas in this temperature range is described. The spectrometer uses an array of plane ruled gratings at grazing incidence in the extreme off plane mount. A set of Kirkpatrick-Baez mirrors focuses the conically diffracted light on to one of two microchannel plate detectors. The field of view of the instrument is 0.2 deg by 12 deg. The predicted sensitivity ranges from 50 to 200 ph/(sq cm sec str) with a resolving power of 15 to 50 over the 50 to 700 angstrom wavelength band.

Labov, S.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling and Analysis for Spent Nuclear Fuel Seismic Testing

Note: This is the final public release version of PNNL-31671 Draft, which was previously released to the sponsor for review. The intent is the public release version will be PNNL-31671. There are no significant changes from the earlier draft version. This unlimited distribution report is the deliverable for M3SF-21PN010202014: Modeling and Analysis for Spent Nuclear Fuel Seismic Testing. This report summarizes the modeling, analysis, and test plan support completed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for the spent nuclear fuel dry storage system seismic test plan through May of 2021. Test plan preparation is planned to continue until the seismic test is completed in July of 2022. This report covers preliminary structural dynamic model development and computer-aided design of test hardware. Based on preliminary modeling, the strongest earthquakes under consideration in this test program provide mechanical loading on the spent nuclear fuel that is comparable to the 30 cm cask drop scenario, although the loads do not appear to be strong enough to cause significant permanent deformation of the fuel assembly spacer grids. The potential for grid deformation during the test will be assessed when the proposed shake table motion becomes available. The weakest earthquakes considered in this test are expected to be comparable to the mechanical loads witnessed in the multimodal transportation test of 2017. The horizontal canister system is predicted to provide nearly-uniform loading condition on the fuel assemblies it contains, while the vertical cask system is predicted to cause non-uniform dynamic loads on the fuel assemblies. In the horizontal case, gravity keeps the fuel assemblies in contact with one basket wall surface unless the loads are strong enough to cause a separation. In the vertical case, the fuel assemblies are relatively long and slender, and seismic motion in the anticipated test range is predicted to cause the assemblies to lean, tilt, and impact the basket walls throughout the seismic event. These gap closures are a nonlinear force transmission condition, so the vertical system is expected to have more variation and variability than the horizontal system. While the horizontal system is expected to have a relatively more linear response than the vertical system, there is still the potential for nonlinear behavior in the horizontal system because the fuel assemblies are free to slide, bounce, and impact the basket walls if the seismic loads are strong enough. One major conclusion of this study is that the use of mixed fuel assemblies in the canister will be acceptable. There are differences in overall system response when the mass, center of gravity, or gaps are changed, but the changes in response are within the bounds of a system that contains completely homogeneous fuel assemblies. One important observation is that the loading for each individual fuel assembly within the vertical canister is expected to be different from that of the others because of nonlinearities in the system. The horizontal canister system is expected to have a more uniform and more predictable response than the vertical canister, making variations in fuel assembly characteristics easier to account for. One important recommendation that comes from this modeling work is to repeat some of the strongest shake tests at different angles, particularly for the vertical cask system. Modeling predicts that strong seismic motion will cause the fuel assemblies to close initial gaps and impact the fuel basket walls when the canister is in the vertical cask configuration. Each shake test will impose a pre-defined three-dimensional time history on the cask system.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantified limits of the nuclear landscape

The chart of the nuclides is limited by particle drip lines beyond which nuclear stability to proton or neutron emission is lost. Predicting the range of particle-bound isotopes poses an appreciable challenge for nuclear theory as it involves extreme extrapolations of nuclear masses well beyond the regions where experimental information is available. Still, quantified extrapolations are crucial for a wide variety of applications, including the modeling of stellar nucleosynthesis. We use microscopic nuclear global mass models, current mass data, and Bayesian methodology to provide quantified predictions of proton and neutron separation energies as well as Bayesian probabilities of existence throughout the nuclear landscape all the way to the particle drip lines. Here, we apply nuclear density functional theory with several energy density functionals. We also consider two global mass models often used in astrophysical nucleosynthesis simulations. To account for uncertainties, Bayesian Gaussian processes are trained on the separation-energy residuals for each individual model, and the resulting predictions are combined via Bayesian model averaging. This framework allows to account for systematic and statistical uncertainties and propagate them to extrapolative predictions. We establish and characterize the drip-line regions where the probability that the nucleus is particle- bound decreases from 1 to 0. In these regions, we provide quantified predictions for one- and two-nucleon separation energies. According to our Bayesian model averaging analysis, 7759 nuclei with Z ≤ 119 have a probability of existence ≥ 0.5. The extrapolation results obtained in this study will be put through stringent tests when new experimental information on existence and masses of exotic nuclei becomes available. In this respect, the quantified landscape of nuclear existence obtained in this study should be viewed as a dynamical prediction that will be fine-tuned when new experimental information and improved global mass models become available.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Changes in the Regional Water Cycle and Their Impact on Societies

ABSTRACT Changes in “blue water”, which is the total supply of fresh water available for human extraction over land, are quite closely related to changes in runoff or equivalently precipitation minus evaporation, . This article examines how climate change‐driven recent past and future changes in the regional water cycle relate to blue water availability and changes in human blue water demand. Although at the largest scales theoretical and numerical model predictions are in broad agreement with observations, at continental scales and below models predict large ranges of possible future and runoff especially at the scale of individual river catchments and for shorter timescale subseasonal floods and droughts. Nevertheless, it is expected that the occurrence and severity of floods will increase and that of droughts may increase, possibly compounded by human‐driven non‐climatic changes such as changes in land use, dam water impoundment, irrigation and extraction of groundwater. Contemporary assessments predict that increases in 21st century human water extraction in many highly‐populated regions are unlikely to be sustainable given projections of future . To reduce uncertainty in future predictions, there is an urgent need to improve modeling of atmospheric, land surface and human processes and how these components are coupled. This should be supported by maintaining the observing network and expanding it to improve measurements of land surface, oceanic and atmospheric variables. This includes the development of satellite observations stable over multiple decades and suitable for building reanalysis datasets appropriate for model evaluation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1995

Ultraviolet radiation from evolved stellar populations. 2: The ultraviolet upturn phenomenon in elliptical galaxies

We discuss the far-ultraviolet upturn phenomenon (UVX) observed in elliptical galaxies and spiral galaxy bulges. Our premise is the UV radiation from these systems emanates primarily from extreme horizontal branch (EHB) stars and their progeny. We derive the broad-band UV colors 1500-V and 2500-V for globular clusters and elliptical galaxies from the available satellite data and investigate color-color and color-line strength correlation. Clusters can be bluer than any galaxy in 15-V and 25-V, implying larger hot star populations, but galaxies are significantly bluer than clusters in 15-25 at a given 15-V. We attribute this primarily to the effect of metal abundance on the mid-UV (2500 A) light. These redder colors of the galaxies also imply that the UVX in galaxies is not produced by metal-poor subpopulations similar to the clusters. We devlop a simple spectral synthesis formulation for all phases of single star evolution from the zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) to the white dwarf cooling track that requires only one or two parameters for each choice of age and abundance. We provide the ingredients necessary for constructing models with arbitrary horizontal branch (HB) morphologies in the age range 2 less than t less than 20 Gyr and for six metallicities in the range -2.26 less than (Fe/H) less than 0.58; we also consider the efect of enhanced Y in metal-rich models. The maximum lifetime UV output is produced by EHB stars with (M(sub env))(sup 0) approximately 0.02 solar mass and can be up to 30 times higher than for post-asymptotic giant branch (P-AGB) stars. The ultraviolet output of old populations is governed primarily by the distribution of (M(sub env))(sup 0)P(M(sub env))(sup 0), on the ZAHB. The UV output is not very sensitive to (Fe/H) or to Y, but it can change very rapidly with (M(sub env))(sup 0). Thus it is extremely sensitive to the precise nature of giant-branch mass loss. Our models use simple descriptions of P(M(sub env))(sup 0) to bracket the colors produced from any real distribution of stars. Our models accurately predict the range of UV colors observed for the globular clusters, given known constraints on their age, abundances, and HB morphologies. We find that models with (Fe/H) greater than or = 0 that do not contain EHB stars cannot reproduce the colors of most of the galaxies. The models also predict that the fraction of the far-UV light from P-AGB stars, which are spatially resolvable in nearby galaxies, is approximately 70% and approximately 20% for moderate UVX and strong UVX systems, respectively. We find that 25-V, but not 15-V, is sensitive to the age and abundance, though these cannot always be cleanly distinguished. The galaxy colors place limits of (Fe/H) greater than -0.5 and less than 15% on the contribution of globular cluster-type populations to the V light. Galaxy colors are consistent with solar-abundance models with ages in the range 6-14 Gyr. We discuss several implications of the observations and the models, including the question of light metal versus iron peak enhancements in galaxies, whether the UV color-Mg(sub 2) correlation is continuous or discrete, effects of helium abundnace on the UVX, and the key question of whether red giant branch mass loss can be large enough to produce the necessary EHB population in the strong UVX galaxies.

Dorman, Ben↗
NASA NTRS1999

MOLA-derived Roughness Data Used to Predict Surface Scattering for Mars Subsurface Radar Sounding

The Mars Express orbiter, to be launched by the European Space Agency in 2003, will carry a low-frequency radar sounding instrument, MARSIS (Mars Advanced Radar for Subsurface and Ionospheric Sounding). The primary goal of MARSIS is to map the distribution of water, both solid and (if present) liquid, in the upper several km of the martian crust. Detecting discontinuities in the crust, such as an ice-water transition, presents many challenges for a Mars orbital radar sounder. One challenge that must be overcome is the presence of radar scattering (echoes) from the surface of Mars, expected to be detected by the sounder antennas at the same time as any echoes aris-ing from subsurface interfaces. As the transmitted spherical wavefront spreads within the crust of Mars,. it also interacts with surface topography at off-nadir positions, creating a "clutter" signal that can mask the subsurface echoes. The MARSIS instrument will utilize Doppler filtering to limit the off-nadir clutter in the along-track direction, and a nadir-null secondary antenna to identify strong off-nadir clutter from the cross-track direction. To evaluate the effects of off-nadir surface clutter and the capability of these schemes to reduce the clutter, it is necessary to predict the range of scattering behavior that may be expected from martian surface topography. In this paper, we utilize Mars Orbital Laser Altimeter (MOLA) data from the current Mars Global Surveyor mission to characterize the topographic roughness of a variety of martian terrain types, at scales relevant to the MARSIS clutter problem. Segments of MOLA altimetry profiles are reduced to the topographic parameters rms slope and fractal dimension, which then are used as inputs to a near-nadir radar scattering model to predict the strength of the clutter signal. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Plaut, J. J.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Turbulence Scales, Rise Times, Caustics, and the Simulation of Sonic Boom Propagation

The general topic of atmospheric turbulence effects on sonic boom propagation is addressed with especial emphasis on taking proper and efficient account of the contributions of the portion oi the turbulence that is associated with extremely high wavenumber components. The recent work reported by Bart Lipkens in his doctoral thesis is reexamined to determine whether the good agreement between his measured rise times with the 1971 theory of the author is fortuitous. It is argued that Lipken's estimate of the distance to the first caustic was a gross overestimate because of the use of a sound speed correlation function shaped like a gaussian curve. In particular, it is argued that the expected distance to the first caustic varies with the kinematic viscosity nu and the energy epsilon dissipated per unit mass per unit time, and the sound speed c as : d(sub first caustic) = nu(exp 7/12) c(exp 2/3)/ epsilon(exp 5/12)(nu x epsilon/c(exp 4))(exp a), where the exponent a is greater than -7/12 and can be argued to be either O or 1/24. In any event, the surprising aspect of the relationship is that it actually goes to zero as the viscosity goes to zero with s held constant. It is argued that the apparent overabundance of caustics can be grossly reduced by a general computational and analytical perspective that partitions the turbulence into two parts, divided by a wavenumber k(sub c). Wavenumbers higher than kc correspond to small-scale turbulence, and the associated turbulence can be taken into account by a renormalization of the ambient sound speed so that the result has a small frequency dependence that results from a spatial averaging over of the smaller-scale turbulent fluctuations. Selection of k(sub c). can be made so large that only a very small number of caustics are encountered if one adopts the premise that the frequency dispersion of pulses is caused by that part of the turbulence spectrum which lies in the inertial range originally predicted by Kolmogoroff. The acoustic propagating wave's dispersion relation has the acoustic wavenumber being of the form k = (omega/c) + F(omega), where c is a spatially averaged sound speed and where, for mechanical turbulence, the extra term F(omega) must depend on only the angular frequency omega, the sound speed c, and the turbulent energy dissipation epsilon per unit fluid mass and per unit time. If the turbulence is weak, then the quantity F(omega) has to be of second order in the portions of the turbulent fluid velocity in the inertial range, so, following Kolmogoroff's reasoning, it must vary with epsilon as epsilon(exp 2/3). Simple dimensional analysis then reveals that F(omega) is K epsilon(exp 2/3) c(exp -7/3) omega(exp l/3), K being a universal dimensionless complex constant.

Pierce, Allan D.↗
NASA NTRS1980

The reverse laser drilling of transparent materials

Within a limited range of incident laser-beam intensities, laser drilling of a sapphire wafer initiates on the surface of the wafer where the laser beam exits and proceeds upstream in the laser beam to the surface where the laser beam enters the wafer. This reverse laser drilling is the result of the constructive interference between the laser beam and its reflected component on the exit face of the wafer. Constructive interference occurs only at the exit face of the sapphire wafer because the internally reflected laser beam suffers no phase change there. A model describing reverse laser drilling predicts the ranges of incident laser-beam intensity where no drilling, reverse laser drilling, and forward laser drilling can be expected in various materials. The application of reverse laser drilling in fabricating feed-through conductors in silicon-on-sapphire wafers for a massively parallel processer is described.

Anthony, T. R.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of Model Summertime Boundary Layer Cloud Development over Complex Terrain in New York State

Weather forecasting over complex terrain with diverse land cover is challenging. Utilizing the high-resolution observations from New York State Mesonet (NYSM), we are able to evaluate the surface processes of the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) Model in a detailed, scale-dependent manner. Here, in the study, possible impacts of land–atmosphere interaction on surface meteorology and boundary layer cloud development are investigated with different model resolutions, land surface models (LSMs), and planetary boundary layer (PBL) physical parameterizations. The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, version 3 (HRRR), forecasting model is used as a reference for the sensitivity evaluation. Results show that over complex terrain, the high-resolution simulations (1 km × 60 vertical levels) generally perform better compared to low-resolution (3 km × 50 levels) in both surface meteorology and cloud fields. LSMs play a more important role in surface meteorology compared to PBL schemes. The NoahMP land surface model exhibits daytime warmer and drier biases compared to the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) due to better prediction of the Bowen ratio in RUC. The PBL schemes would affect the convective strength in the boundary layer. The Shin–Hong (SH) scale-aware scheme tends to produce the strongest convective strength in the PBL, while the ACM2 PBL scheme rarely resolved convection even at 1-km resolution. By considering the radiation effect of subgrid-scale (SGS) clouds, the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino eddy diffusivity mass flux (MYNN-EDMF) predicted the highest cloud coverage and lowest surface solar radiation bias. The configuration of SGS clouds in MYNN-EDMF would not only significantly reduce shortwave radiation bias, but also affect the convection behaviors through land surface–cloud–radiation interaction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2000

Estimates of Ground Temperature and Atmospheric Moisture from CERES Observations

A method is developed to retrieve surface ground temperature (Tg) and atmospheric moisture using clear sky fluxes (CSF) from CERES-TRMM observations. In general, the clear sky outgoing long-wave radiation (CLR) is sensitive to upper level moisture (q(sub h)) over wet regions and Tg over dry regions The clear sky window flux from 800 to 1200 /cm (RadWn) is sensitive to low level moisture (q(sub j)) and Tg. Combining these two measurements (CLR and RadWn), Tg and q(sub h) can be estimated over land, while q(sub h) and q(sub t) can be estimated over the oceans. The approach capitalizes on the availability of satellite estimates of CLR and RadWn and other auxiliary satellite data. The basic methodology employs off-line forward radiative transfer calculations to generate synthetic CSF data from two different global 4-dimensional data assimilation products. Simple linear regression is used to relate discrepancies in CSF to discrepancies in Tg, q(sub h) and q(sub t). The slopes of the regression lines define sensitivity parameters that can be exploited to help interpret mismatches between satellite observations and model-based estimates of CSF. For illustration, we analyze the discrepancies in the CSF between an early implementation of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS-DAS) and a recent operational version of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Prediction data assimilation system. In particular, our analysis of synthetic total and window region SCF differences (computed from two different assimilated data sets) shows that simple linear regression employing (Delta)Tg and broad layer (Delta)q(sub l) from 500 hPa to surface and (Delta)q(sub h) from 200 to 500 hPa provides a good approximation to the full radiative transfer calculations, typically explaining more than 90% of the 6-hourly variance in the flux differences. These simple regression relations can be inverted to "retrieve" the errors in the geophysical parameters. Uncertainties (normalized by standard deviation) in the monthly mean retrieved parameters range from 7% for (Delta)T to about 20% for (Delta)q(sub t). Our initial application of the methodology employed an early CERES-TRMM data set (CLR and Radwn) to assess the quality of the GEOS2 data. The results showed that over the tropical and subtropical oceans GEOS2 is, in general, too wet in the upper troposphere (mean bias of 0.99 mm) and too dry in the lower troposphere (mean bias of -4.7 mm). We note that these errors, as well as a cold bias in the Tg, have largely been corrected in the current version of GEOS-2 with the introduction of a land surface model, a moist turbulence scheme and the assimilation of SSTM/I total precipitable water.

Wu, Man Li C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Model predictive control for integrated control of air-conditioning and mechanical ventilation, lighting and shading systems

Modern buildings are increasingly automated and often equipped with multiple building services (e.g., air-conditioning and mechanical ventilation (ACMV), dynamic shading, dimmable lighting). These systems are conventionally controlled individually without considering their interactions, affecting the building’s overall energy inefficiency and occupant comfort. A model predictive control (MPC) system that features a multi-objective MPC scheme to enable coordinated control of multiple building services for overall optimized energy efficiency, indoor thermal and visual comfort, as well as a hybrid model for predicting indoor visual comfort and lighting power is proposed. The MPC system was implemented in a test facility having two identical, side-by-side experimental cells to facilitate comparison with a building management system (BMS) employing conventional reactive feedback control. The MPC system coordinated the control of the ACMV, dynamic façade and automated dimmable lighting systems in one cell while the BMS controlled the building services in the other cell in a conventional manner. The MPC side achieved 15.1–20.7% electricity consumption reduction, as compared to the BMS side. Simultaneously, the MPC system improved indoor thermal comfort by maintaining the room within the comfortable range (-0.5 < predicted mean vote < 0.5) for 98.3% of the time, up from 91.8% of the time on the BMS side. Visual comfort, measured by indoor daylight glare probability (DGP) and horizontal illuminance level at work plane height, was maintained for the entire test period on the MPC side, improving from having visual comfort for 94.5% and 85.7% of the time, respectively, on the BMS side.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2000

Estimates of Ground Temperature and Atmospheric Moisture from CERES Observations

A method is developed to retrieve surface ground temperature (T(sub g)) and atmospheric moisture using clear sky fluxes (CSF) from CERES-TRMM observations. In general, the clear sky outgoing longwave radiation (CLR) is sensitive to upper level moisture (q(sub l)) over wet regions and (T(sub g)) over dry regions The clear sky window flux from 800 to 1200/cm (RadWn) is sensitive to low level moisture (q(sub t)) and T(sub g). Combining these two measurements (CLR and RadWn), Tg and q(sub h) can be estimated over land, while q(sub h) and q(sub l) can be estimated over the oceans. The approach capitalizes on the availability of satellite estimates of CLR and RadWn and other auxiliary satellite data. The basic methodology employs off-line forward radiative transfer calculations to generate synthetic CSF data from two different global 4-dimensional data assimilation products. Simple linear regression is used to relate discrepancies in CSF to discrepancies in T(sub g), q(sub h) and q(sub l). The slopes of the regression lines define sensitivity parameters that can be exploited to help interpret mismatches between satellite observations and model-based estimates of CSF. For illustration, we analyze the discrepancies in the CSF between an early implementation of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS-DAS) and a recent operational version of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Prediction data assimilation system. In particular, our analysis of synthetic total and window region SCF differences (computed from two different assimilated data sets) shows that simple linear regression employing Delta(T(sub g)) and broad layer Delta(q(sub l) from .500 hPa to surface and Delta(q(sub h)) from 200 to .300 hPa provides a good approximation to the full radiative transfer calculations. typically explaining more than 90% of the 6-hourly variance in the flux differences. These simple regression relations can be inverted to "retrieve" the errors in the geophysical parameters. Uncertainties (normalized by standard deviation) in the monthly mean retrieved parameters range from 7% for Delta(T(sub g)) to about 20% for Delta(q(sub l)). Our initial application of the methodology employed an early CERES-TRMM data set (CLR and Radwn) to assess the quality of the GEOS2 data. The results showed that over the tropical and subtropical oceans GEOS2 is, in general, too wet in the upper troposphere (mean bias of 0.99 mm) and too dry in the lower troposphere (mean bias of -4.7 min). We note that these errors, as well as a cold bias in the T(sub g). have largely been corrected in the current version of GEOS-2 with the introduction of a land surface model, a moist turbulence scheme and the assimilation of SSM/I total precipitable water.

Wu, Man Li C.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Uncertainty Quantification for Polynomial Systems via Bernstein Expansions

This paper presents a unifying framework to uncertainty quantification for systems having polynomial response metrics that depend on both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The approach proposed, which is based on the Bernstein expansions of polynomials, enables bounding the range of moments and failure probabilities of response metrics as well as finding supersets of the extreme epistemic realizations where the limits of such ranges occur. These bounds and supersets, whose analytical structure renders them free of approximation error, can be made arbitrarily tight with additional computational effort. Furthermore, this framework enables determining the importance of particular uncertain parameters according to the extent to which they affect the first two moments of response metrics and failure probabilities. This analysis enables determining the parameters that should be considered uncertain as well as those that can be assumed to be constants without incurring significant error. The analytical nature of the approach eliminates the numerical error that characterizes the sampling-based techniques commonly used to propagate aleatory uncertainties as well as the possibility of under predicting the range of the statistic of interest that may result from searching for the best- and worstcase epistemic values via nonlinear optimization or sampling.

Crespo, Luis G.↗