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NASA NTRS2004

Strategy Developed for Selecting Optimal Sensors for Monitoring Engine Health

Sensor indications during rocket engine operation are the primary means of assessing engine performance and health. Effective selection and location of sensors in the operating engine environment enables accurate real-time condition monitoring and rapid engine controller response to mitigate critical fault conditions. These capabilities are crucial to ensure crew safety and mission success. Effective sensor selection also facilitates postflight condition assessment, which contributes to efficient engine maintenance and reduced operating costs. Under the Next Generation Launch Technology program, the NASA Glenn Research Center, in partnership with Rocketdyne Propulsion and Power, has developed a model-based procedure for systematically selecting an optimal sensor suite for assessing rocket engine system health. This optimization process is termed the systematic sensor selection strategy. Engine health management (EHM) systems generally employ multiple diagnostic procedures including data validation, anomaly detection, fault-isolation, and information fusion. The effectiveness of each diagnostic component is affected by the quality, availability, and compatibility of sensor data. Therefore systematic sensor selection is an enabling technology for EHM. Information in three categories is required by the systematic sensor selection strategy. The first category consists of targeted engine fault information; including the description and estimated risk-reduction factor for each identified fault. Risk-reduction factors are used to define and rank the potential merit of timely fault diagnoses. The second category is composed of candidate sensor information; including type, location, and estimated variance in normal operation. The final category includes the definition of fault scenarios characteristic of each targeted engine fault. These scenarios are defined in terms of engine model hardware parameters. Values of these parameters define engine simulations that generate expected sensor values for targeted fault scenarios. Taken together, this information provides an efficient condensation of the engineering experience and engine flow physics needed for sensor selection. The systematic sensor selection strategy is composed of three primary algorithms. The core of the selection process is a genetic algorithm that iteratively improves a defined quality measure of selected sensor suites. A merit algorithm is employed to compute the quality measure for each test sensor suite presented by the selection process. The quality measure is based on the fidelity of fault detection and the level of fault source discrimination provided by the test sensor suite. An inverse engine model, whose function is to derive hardware performance parameters from sensor data, is an integral part of the merit algorithm. The final component is a statistical evaluation algorithm that characterizes the impact of interference effects, such as control-induced sensor variation and sensor noise, on the probability of fault detection and isolation for optimal and near-optimal sensor suites.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1999

Dust on Mars: An Aeolian Threat to Human Exploration?

The NASA HEDS Program is duly concerned for human explorers regarding the potential hazard posed by the ubiquitous dust mantle on Mars. To evaluate properties of dust that could be hazardous to humans, the MPS 2001 Lander payload will include the Mars Environmental Compatibility Assessment (MECA) experiment. This includes optical and atomic-force microscopy to evaluate soil grains for shape and size, wet chemistry to evaluate toxic substances, electrometry to evaluate triboelectric charging, and test-material palets to evaluate electrostatic and magnetic adhesion, and the hardness/abrasiveness of soil grains; these experimental subcomponents are delivered samples by the camera-equipped robotic arm of the lander which will acquire material from depths of 0.5 to 1.0 m in the soil. Data returned by MECA will be of value to both the BEDS and planetary/astrobiology communities. Dust poses a threat to human exploration because the martian system does not hydrologically or chemically remove fine particles that are being continuously generated by thermal, aeolian, and colluvial weathering, and by volcanism and impact over billions of years. The dust is extremely fine-grained, in copious quantities, ubiquitous in distribution, continually mobile, and a source of poorly-grounded static charges -- a suite of characteristics posing a particulate and electrical threat to explorers and their equipment. Dust is mobilized on global and regional scales, but probably also unpredictably and violently at local scales by dust devils. The latter might be expected in great abundance owing to near surface atmospheric instability (dust devils were detected by Pathfinder during its brief lifetime). Preliminary laboratory experiments suggest that space-suit materials subjected to windblown dust may acquire a uniform, highly adhesive dust layer that is also highly cohesive laterally owing to electrostatic forces. This layer will obscure visibility through the helmet visor, penetrate joints and fabrics, change the thermal properties of the suit, and possibly affect electronic/electrical suit functions. It is paramount that future missions address the issue of interparticle forces, and in particular, the role played by ionizing radiation in affecting these forces on Mars.

Marshall, J.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Dust on Mars: An Aeolian Threat to Human Exploration?

The NASA HEDS Program is duly concerned for human explorers regarding the potential hazard posed by the ubiquitous dust mantle on Mars. To evaluate properties of dust that could be hazardous to humans, the NMS 2001 Lander payload will include the Mars Environmental Compatibility Assessment (MECA) experiment. This includes optical and atomic-force microscopy to evaluate soil grains for shape and size, wet chemistry to evaluate toxic substances, electrometry to evaluate triboelectric charging, and test-material palets to evaluate electrostatic and magnetic adhesion, and the hardness/abrasiveness of soil grains; these experimental subcomponents are delivered samples by the camera-equipped robotic arm of the lander which will acquire material from depths of 0.5 to 1.0 m in the soil. Data returned by MECA will be of value to both the hEDS and planetary/astrobiology communities. Dust poses a threat to human exploration because the martian system does not hydrologically or chemically remove fine particles that are being continuously generated by thermal, aeolian, and colluvial weathering, and by volcanism and impact over billions of years. The dust is extremely fine-grained, in copious quantities, ubiquitous in distribution, continually mobile, and a source of poorly-grounded static charges -- a suite of characteristics posing a particulate and electrical threat to explorers and their equipment. Dust is mobilized on global and regional scales, but probably also unpredictably and violently at local scales by dust devils. The latter might be expected in great abundance owing to near surface atmospheric instability (dust devils were detected by Pathfinder during its brief lifetime). Preliminary laboratory experiments suggest that space-suit materials subjected to windblown dust may acquire a uniform, highly adhesive dust layer that is also highly cohesive laterally owing to electrostatic forces. This layer will obscure visibility through the helmet visor, penetrate joints and fabrics, change the thermal properties of the suit, and possibly affect electronic/electrical suit functions. It is paramount that future missions address the issue of interparticle forces, and in particular, the role played by ionizing radiation in affecting these forces on Mars.

Marshall, J.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Main Geomagnetic Field Models from Oersted and Magsat Data Via a Rigorous General Inverse Theory with Error Bounds

The purpose of the grant was to study how prior information about the geomagnetic field can be used to interpret surface and satellite magnetic measurements, to generate quantitative descriptions of prior information that might be so used, and to use this prior information to obtain from satellite data a model of the core field with statistically justifiable error estimates. The need for prior information in geophysical inversion has long been recognized. Data sets are finite, and faithful descriptions of aspects of the earth almost always require infinite-dimensional model spaces. By themselves, the data can confine the correct earth model only to an infinite-dimensional subset of the model space. Earth properties other than direct functions of the observed data cannot be estimated from those data without prior information about the earth. Prior information is based on what the observer already knows before the data become available. Such information can be "hard" or "soft". Hard information is a belief that the real earth must lie in some known region of model space. For example, the total ohmic dissipation in the core is probably less that the total observed geothermal heat flow out of the earth's surface. (In principle, ohmic heat in the core can be recaptured to help drive the dynamo, but this effect is probably small.) "Soft" information is a probability distribution on the model space, a distribution that the observer accepts as a quantitative description of her/his beliefs about the earth. The probability distribution can be a subjective prior in the sense of Bayes or the objective result of a statistical study of previous data or relevant theories.

Backus, George E.↗

NASA NTRS1993

A large eddy simulation scheme for turbulent reacting flows

The recent development of the dynamic subgrid-scale (SGS) model has provided a consistent method for generating localized turbulent mixing models and has opened up great possibilities for applying the large eddy simulation (LES) technique to real world problems. Given the fact that the direct numerical simulation (DNS) can not solve for engineering flow problems in the foreseeable future (Reynolds 1989), the LES is certainly an attractive alternative. It seems only natural to bring this new development in SGS modeling to bear on the reacting flows. The major stumbling block for introducing LES to reacting flow problems has been the proper modeling of the reaction source terms. Various models have been proposed, but none of them has a wide range of applicability. For example, some of the models in combustion have been based on the flamelet assumption which is only valid for relatively fast reactions. Some other models have neglected the effects of chemical reactions on the turbulent mixing time scale, which is certainly not valid for fast and non-isothermal reactions. The probability density function (PDF) method can be usefully employed to deal with the modeling of the reaction source terms. In order to fit into the framework of LES, a new PDF, the large eddy PDF (LEPDF), is introduced. This PDF provides an accurate representation for the filtered chemical source terms and can be readily calculated in the simulations. The details of this scheme are described.

Gao, Feng↗

NASA NTRS1993

Software testability and its application to avionic software

Randomly generated black-box testing is an established yet controversial method of estimating software reliability. Unfortunately, as software applications have required higher reliabilities, practical difficulties with black-box testing have become increasingly problematic. These practical problems are particularly acute in life-critical avionics software, where requirements of 10 exp -7 failures per hour of system reliability can translate into a probability of failure (POF) of perhaps 10 exp -9 or less for each individual execution of the software. This paper describes the application of one type of testability analysis called 'sensitivity analysis' to B-737 avionics software; one application of sensitivity analysis is to quantify whether software testing is capable of detecting faults in a particular program and thus whether we can be confident that a tested program is not hiding faults. We so 80 by finding the testabilities of the individual statements of the program, and then use those statement testabilities to find the testabilities of the functions and modules. For the B-737 system we analyzed, we were able to isolate those functions that are more prone to hide errors during system/reliability testing.

Voas, Jeffrey M.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Distribution functions of probabilistic automata

Each probabilistic automaton M over an alphabet A defines a probability measure Prob sub(M) on the set of all finite and infinite words over A. We can identify a k letter alphabet A with the set {0, 1,..., k-1}, and, hence, we can consider every finite or infinite word w over A as a radix k expansion of a real number X(w) in the interval [0, 1]. This makes X(w) a random variable and the distribution function of M is defined as usual: F(x) := Prob sub(M) { w: X(w) < x }. Utilizing the fixed-point semantics (denotational semantics), extended to probabilistic computations, we investigate the distribution functions of probabilistic automata in detail. Automata with continuous distribution functions are characterized. By a new, and much more easier method, it is shown that the distribution function F(x) is an analytic function if it is a polynomial. Finally, answering a question posed by D. Knuth and A. Yao, we show that a polynomial distribution function F(x) on [0, 1] can be generated by a prob abilistic automaton iff all the roots of F'(x) = 0 in this interval, if any, are rational numbers. For this, we define two dynamical systems on the set of polynomial distributions and study attracting fixed points of random composition of these two systems.

Denotational semantics↗

NASA NTRS2011

Estimated Accuracy of Three Common Trajectory Statistical Methods

Three well-known trajectory statistical methods (TSMs), namely concentration field (CF), concentration weighted trajectory (CWT), and potential source contribution function (PSCF) methods were tested using known sources and artificially generated data sets to determine the ability of TSMs to reproduce spatial distribution of the sources. In the works by other authors, the accuracy of the trajectory statistical methods was estimated for particular species and at specified receptor locations. We have obtained a more general statistical estimation of the accuracy of source reconstruction and have found optimum conditions to reconstruct source distributions of atmospheric trace substances. Only virtual pollutants of the primary type were considered. In real world experiments, TSMs are intended for application to a priori unknown sources. Therefore, the accuracy of TSMs has to be tested with all possible spatial distributions of sources. An ensemble of geographical distributions of virtual sources was generated. Spearman s rank order correlation coefficient between spatial distributions of the known virtual and the reconstructed sources was taken to be a quantitative measure of the accuracy. Statistical estimates of the mean correlation coefficient and a range of the most probable values of correlation coefficients were obtained. All the TSMs that were considered here showed similar close results. The maximum of the ratio of the mean correlation to the width of the correlation interval containing the most probable correlation values determines the optimum conditions for reconstruction. An optimal geographical domain roughly coincides with the area supplying most of the substance to the receptor. The optimal domain s size is dependent on the substance decay time. Under optimum reconstruction conditions, the mean correlation coefficients can reach 0.70 0.75. The boundaries of the interval with the most probable correlation values are 0.6 0.9 for the decay time of 240 h and 0.5 0.95 for the decay time of 12 h. The best results of source reconstruction can be expected for the trace substances with a decay time on the order of several days. Although the methods considered in this paper do not guarantee high accuracy they are computationally simple and fast. Using the TSMs in optimum conditions and taking into account the range of uncertainties, one can obtain a first hint on potential source areas.

Kabashnikov, Vitaliy P.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Statistical Orbit Determination using the Particle Filter for Incorporating Non-Gaussian Uncertainties

The tracking of space objects requires frequent and accurate monitoring for collision avoidance. As even collision events with very low probability are important, accurate prediction of collisions require the representation of the full probability density function (PDF) of the random orbit state. Through representing the full PDF of the orbit state for orbit maintenance and collision avoidance, we can take advantage of the statistical information present in the heavy tailed distributions, more accurately representing the orbit states with low probability. The classical methods of orbit determination (i.e. Kalman Filter and its derivatives) provide state estimates based on only the second moments of the state and measurement errors that are captured by assuming a Gaussian distribution. Although the measurement errors can be accurately assumed to have a Gaussian distribution, errors with a non-Gaussian distribution could arise during propagation between observations. Moreover, unmodeled dynamics in the orbit model could introduce non-Gaussian errors into the process noise. A Particle Filter (PF) is proposed as a nonlinear filtering technique that is capable of propagating and estimating a more complete representation of the state distribution as an accurate approximation of a full PDF. The PF uses Monte Carlo runs to generate particles that approximate the full PDF representation. The PF is applied in the estimation and propagation of a highly eccentric orbit and the results are compared to the Extended Kalman Filter and Splitting Gaussian Mixture algorithms to demonstrate its proficiency.

Mashiku, Alinda↗

NASA NTRS1992

Reactant conversion in homogeneous turbulence: Mathematical modeling, computational validations and practical applications

Closed form analytical expressions are obtained for predicting the limited rate of reactant conversion in a binary reaction of the type F + rO yields (1 + r) Product in unpremixed homogeneous turbulence. These relations are obtained by means of a single point Probability Density Function (PDF) method based on the Amplitude Mapping Closure. It is demonstrated that with this model, the maximum rate of the reactants' decay can be conveniently expressed in terms of definite integrals of the Parabolic Cylinder Functions. For the cases with complete initial segregation, it is shown that the results agree very closely with those predicted by employing a Beta density of the first kind for an appropriately defined Shvab-Zeldovich scalar variable. With this assumption, the final results can also be expressed in terms of closed form analytical expressions which are based on the Incomplete Beta Functions. With both models, the dependence of the results on the stoichiometric coefficient and the equivalence ratio can be expressed in an explicit manner. For a stoichiometric mixture, the analytical results simplify significantly. In the mapping closure, these results are expressed in terms of simple trigonometric functions. For the Beta density model, they are in the form of Gamma Functions. In all the cases considered, the results are shown to agree well with data generated by Direct Numerical Simulations (DNS). Due to the simplicity of these expressions and because of nice mathematical features of the Parabolic Cylinder and the Incomplete Beta Functions, these models are recommended for estimating the limiting rate of reactant conversion in homogeneous reacting flows. These results also provide useful insights in assessing the extent of validity of turbulence closures in the modeling of unpremixed reacting flows. Some discussions are provided on the extension of the model for treating more complicated reacting systems including realistic kinetics schemes and multi-scalar mixing with finite rate chemical reactions in more complex configurations.

Madnia, C. K.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Large eddy simulation and direct numerical simulation of high speed turbulent reacting flows

The objective of this research is to make use of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) and Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) for the computational analyses of high speed reacting flows. Our efforts in the first phase of this research conducted within the past three years have been directed in several issues pertaining to intricate physics of turbulent reacting flows. In our previous 5 semi-annual reports submitted to NASA LaRC, as well as several technical papers in archival journals, the results of our investigations have been fully described. In this progress report which is different in format as compared to our previous documents, we focus only on the issue of LES. The reason for doing so is that LES is the primary issue of interest to our Technical Monitor and that our other findings were needed to support the activities conducted under this prime issue. The outcomes of our related investigations, nevertheless, are included in the appendices accompanying this report. The relevance of the materials in these appendices are, therefore, discussed only briefly within the body of the report. Here, results are presented of a priori and a posterior analyses for validity assessments of assumed Probability Density Function (PDF) methods as potential subgrid scale (SGS) closures for LES of turbulent reacting flows. Simple non-premixed reacting systems involving an isothermal reaction of the type A + B yields Products under both chemical equilibrium and non-equilibrium conditions are considered. A priori analyses are conducted of a homogeneous box flow, and a spatially developing planar mixing layer to investigate the performance of the Pearson Family of PDF's as SGS models. A posteriori analyses are conducted of the mixing layer using a hybrid one-equation Smagorinsky/PDF SGS closure. The Smagorinsky closure augmented by the solution of the subgrid turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) equation is employed to account for hydrodynamic fluctuations, and the PDF is employed for modeling the effects of scalar fluctuations. The implementation of the model requires the knowledge of the local values of the first two SGS moments. These are provided by additional modeled transport equations. In both a priori and a posteriori analyses, the predicted results are appraised by comparison with subgrid averaged results generated by DNS. Based on these results, the paths to be followed in future investigations are identified.

Adumitroaie, V.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Solar Energetic Particle Variations

In the largest solar energetic-particle (SEP) events, acceleration occurs at shock waves driven out from the Sun by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). In fact, the highest proton intensities directly measured near Earth at energies up to approximately 1 GeV occur at the time of passage of shocks, which arrive about a day after the CMEs leave the Sun. CME-driven shocks expanding across magnetic fields can fill over half of the heliosphere with SEPs. Proton-generated Alfven waves trap particles near the shock for efficient acceleration but also throttle the intensities at Earth to the streaming limit early in the events. At high energies, particles begin to leak from the shock and the spectrum rolls downward to form an energy-spectral 'knee' that can vary in energy from approximately 1 MeV to approximately 1 GeV in different events. All of these factors affect the radiation dose as a function of depth and latitude in the Earth's atmosphere and the risk to astronauts and equipment in space. SEP ionization of the polar atmosphere produces nitrates that precipitate to become trapped in the polar ice. Observations of nitrate deposits in ice cores reveal individual large SEP events and extend back approximately 400 years. Unlike sunspots, SEP events follow the approximately 80-100-year Gleissberg cycle rather faithfully and are now at a minimum in that cycle. The largest SEP event in the last 400 years appears to be related to the flare observed by Carrington in 1859, but the probability of SEP events with such large fluences falls off sharply because of the streaming limit.

Reames, D. V.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Calculating Soil Wetness, Evapotranspiration and Carbon Cycle Processes Over Large Grid Areas Using a New Scaling Technique

Soil wetness typically shows great spatial variability over the length scales of general circulation model (GCM) grid areas (approx 100 km ), and the functions relating evapotranspiration and photosynthetic rate to local-scale (approx 1 m) soil wetness are highly non-linear. Soil respiration is also highly dependent on very small-scale variations in soil wetness. We therefore expect significant inaccuracies whenever we insert a single grid area-average soil wetness value into a function to calculate any of these rates for the grid area. For the particular case of evapotranspiration., this method - use of a grid-averaged soil wetness value - can also provoke severe oscillations in the evapotranspiration rate and soil wetness under some conditions. A method is presented whereby the probability distribution timction(pdf) for soil wetness within a grid area is represented by binning. and numerical integration of the binned pdf is performed to provide a spatially-integrated wetness stress term for the whole grid area, which then permits calculation of grid area fluxes in a single operation. The method is very accurate when 10 or more bins are used, can deal realistically with spatially variable precipitation, conserves moisture exactly and allows for precise modification of the soil wetness pdf after every time step. The method could also be applied to other ecological problems where small-scale processes must be area-integrated, or upscaled, to estimate fluxes over large areas, for example in treatments of the terrestrial carbon budget or trace gas generation.

Sellers, Piers↗

NASA NTRS2018

Evaluation of the Danish Aerospace Corporation Portable Pulmonary Function System

A research project designed to investigate changes in maximal oxygen consumption (VO2max) during and following long duration flight on the International Space Station (ISS) has recently been completed. The device used to measure VO2 on board ISS, the Portable Pulmonary Function System (PPFS) manufactured by the Danish Aerospace Corporation (DAC), is based on previous-generation devices manufactured by DAC, but the PPFS has not been validated for analyzing metabolic gases or measuring cardiac output (Qc). The purpose of the present evaluation is to compare PPFS metabolic gas analysis measurements to measurements obtained using a clinically-validated system (ParvoMedics TrueOne(c) 2400 system; Parvo). In addition, Qc data collected with the PPFS were compared to Qc measurements from echocardiography. METHODS: Ten subjects completed three cycle exercise tests to maximal exertion. The first test was conducted to determine each subject's VO2max and set the work rates for the second and third (comparison) tests. The protocol for the two comparison tests consisted of three 5-minute stages designed to elicit 25%, 50%, and 75% VO2max (based upon results from the initial test), followed by 1-minute stages of increasing work rate (25 watt/minute) until the subject reached maximal effort. During one of the two comparison tests, metabolic gases and Qc were assessed with the PPFS; metabolic gases and Qc were assessed with the Parvo and by echocardiography, respectively, during the other test. The order of the comparison tests was counterbalanced. VO2max and maximal work rate during the comparison tests were compared using t tests. Mixed-effects regression modeling was used to analyze submaximal data. RESULTS: All of the data were within normal physiological ranges. The PPFS-measured values for VO2max were 6% lower than values obtained with the Parvo (PPFS: 3.11 +/- 0.75 L/min; Parvo: 3.32 +/- 0.87 L/min; mean +/- standard deviation; P = 0.02); this difference is probably due to flow restriction imposed by the PPFS Qc accessories. Submaximal VO2 values were slightly lower when measured with the PPFS, although differences were not physiologically relevant. The PPFS-measured values of submaximal carbon dioxide production (VCO2) were lower than the data obtained from Parvo, which could be attributed to lower fractions of expired carbon dioxide measured by the PPFS. The PPFS Qc values tended to be lower than echocardiography-derived values. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the present study indicate a need to further examine the PPFS and to better quantify its reproducibility; however, none of the findings of the current evaluation indicate that the PPFS needs to be replaced or modified.

Portable Pulmonary Function System (PPFS)↗

NASA NTRS1995

The latitudinal distribution of magnetic holes in the solar wind

A large number of magnetic holes have been found in the Ulysses data during its cruise in the ecliptic. They are interpreted as convecting structures, probably caused by the mirror instability which exists in high beta plasmas with anisotropic temperatures. The characteristics of the holes reflect the solar wind condition of the region in which the holes are formed, and the point of observation may be far removed from where the instability occurs. A preliminary survey appears to indicate that the number of holes has no significant radial dependence. However, the number of holes does appear to increase with increasing heliographic latitude. Yet the large scale solar wind structures with their compression regions disappeared at approximately 57 deg south latitude. Thus any causal relationship between the holes and large scale solar wind structures is questionable. The temperature anisotropy and high beta required by the mirror instability must be generated by other mechanisms. In order to tie the magnetic holes and the mirror instability to their cause, the evolution of their characteristics with heliocentric distance and latitude needs to be investigated. With the progression of Ulysses around the sun a survey will be conducted to ascertain the characteristics of the magnetic holes as a function of heliographic latitude and heliocentric distance. A comparison of the results with the solar wind conditions may lead to the identification of the magnetic hole generating mechanism(s).

Winterhalter, D.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Recursive Branching Simulated Annealing Algorithm

This innovation is a variation of a simulated-annealing optimization algorithm that uses a recursive-branching structure to parallelize the search of a parameter space for the globally optimal solution to an objective. The algorithm has been demonstrated to be more effective at searching a parameter space than traditional simulated-annealing methods for a particular problem of interest, and it can readily be applied to a wide variety of optimization problems, including those with a parameter space having both discrete-value parameters (combinatorial) and continuous-variable parameters. It can take the place of a conventional simulated- annealing, Monte-Carlo, or random- walk algorithm. In a conventional simulated-annealing (SA) algorithm, a starting configuration is randomly selected within the parameter space. The algorithm randomly selects another configuration from the parameter space and evaluates the objective function for that configuration. If the objective function value is better than the previous value, the new configuration is adopted as the new point of interest in the parameter space. If the objective function value is worse than the previous value, the new configuration may be adopted, with a probability determined by a temperature parameter, used in analogy to annealing in metals. As the optimization continues, the region of the parameter space from which new configurations can be selected shrinks, and in conjunction with lowering the annealing temperature (and thus lowering the probability for adopting configurations in parameter space with worse objective functions), the algorithm can converge on the globally optimal configuration. The Recursive Branching Simulated Annealing (RBSA) algorithm shares some features with the SA algorithm, notably including the basic principles that a starting configuration is randomly selected from within the parameter space, the algorithm tests other configurations with the goal of finding the globally optimal solution, and the region from which new configurations can be selected shrinks as the search continues. The key difference between these algorithms is that in the SA algorithm, a single path, or trajectory, is taken in parameter space, from the starting point to the globally optimal solution, while in the RBSA algorithm, many trajectories are taken; by exploring multiple regions of the parameter space simultaneously, the algorithm has been shown to converge on the globally optimal solution about an order of magnitude faster than when using conventional algorithms. Novel features of the RBSA algorithm include: 1. More efficient searching of the parameter space due to the branching structure, in which multiple random configurations are generated and multiple promising regions of the parameter space are explored; 2. The implementation of a trust region for each parameter in the parameter space, which provides a natural way of enforcing upper- and lower-bound constraints on the parameters; and 3. The optional use of a constrained gradient- search optimization, performed on the continuous variables around each branch s configuration in parameter space to improve search efficiency by allowing for fast fine-tuning of the continuous variables within the trust region at that configuration point.

Bolcar, Matthew↗

NASA NTRS2007

Titan Orbiter Aerorover Mission with Enceladus Science (TOAMES)

Cassini and Huygens have made exciting discoveries at Titan and Enceladus, and at the same time made us aware of how little we understand about these bodies. For example, the source, and/or recycling mechanism, of methane in Titan's atmosphere is still puzzling. Indeed, river beds (mostly dry) and lakes have been spotted, and occasional clouds have been seen, but the physics to explain the observations is still mostly lacking, since our "image" of Titan is still sketchy and quite incomplete. Enceladus, only -500 km in extent, is even more puzzling, with its fiery plumes of vapor, dust and ice emanating from its south polar region, "feeding" Saturn's E ring. Long term variability of magnetospheric plasma, neutral gas, E-ring ice grain density, radio emissions, and corotation of Saturn's planetary magnetic field in response to Enceladus plume activity are of great interest for Saturn system science. Both Titan and Enceladus are bodies of considerable astrobiological interest in view of high organic abundances at Titan and potential subsurface liquid water at Enceladus. We propose to develop a new mission to Titan and Enceladus, the Titan Orbiter Aerorover Mission with Enceladus Science (TOAMES), to address these questions using novel new technologies. TOAMES is a multi-faceted mission that starts with orbit insertion around Saturn using aerobraking with Titan's extended atmosphere. We then have an orbital tour around Saturn (for 1-2 years) and close encounters with Enceladus, before it goes into orbit around Titan (via aerocapture). During the early reconnaissance phase around Titan, perhaps 6 months long, the orbiter will use altimetry, radio science and remote sensing instruments to measure Titan's global topography, subsurface structure and atmospheric winds. This information will be used to determine where and when to release the Aerorover, so that it can navigate safely around Titan and identify prime sites for surface sampling and analysis. In situ instruments will sample the upper atmosphere which may provide the seed population for the complex organic chemistry on the surface. The Aerorover will probably use a "hot air" Montgolfier balloon concept using the waste heat from the MMRTG 1-2 kwatts. New technologies will need to be developed and miniaturization will be required to maintain functionality while controlling mass, power and cost. Duty cycling will be used. The Aerorover will have all the instruments needed to sample Titan's atmosphere and surface with possible methane lakes-rivers. It will e.g., use multi-spectral imagers and for last 6 months of mission, balloon payload will land on surface at predetermined site to take core samples of the surface and use seismometers to help probe the interior. All remote (and active) sensors on the orbiter will share a - 1 meter telescope, called MIDAS (Multiple Instrument Distributed Aperture Sensor). MIDAS observations in stable orbit at Titan can provide full global maps of Titan's surface and could additionally provide long term observations of the Saturn system including Enceladus for extended mission phases over many years, potentially for decades. Experience from the Hubble Space Telescope has shown strong public interest and commitment to exciting generational missions.

Sittler, Edward C.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Knowledge Representation Standards and Interchange Formats for Causal Graphs

In many domains, automated reasoning tools must represent graphs of causally linked events. These include fault-tree analysis, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), planning, procedures, medical reasoning about disease progression, and functional architectures. Each of these fields has its own requirements for the representation of causation, events, actors and conditions. The representations include ontologies of function and cause, data dictionaries for causal dependency, failure and hazard, and interchange formats between some existing tools. In none of the domains has a generally accepted interchange format emerged. The paper makes progress towards interoperability across the wide range of causal analysis methodologies. We survey existing practice and emerging interchange formats in each of these fields. Setting forth a set of terms and concepts that are broadly shared across the domains, we examine the several ways in which current practice represents them. Some phenomena are difficult to represent or to analyze in several domains. These include mode transitions, reachability analysis, positive and negative feedback loops, conditions correlated but not causally linked and bimodal probability distributions. We work through examples and contrast the differing methods for addressing them. We detail recent work in knowledge interchange formats for causal trees in aerospace analysis applications in early design, safety and reliability. Several examples are discussed, with a particular focus on reachability analysis and mode transitions. We generalize the aerospace analysis work across the several other domains. We also recommend features and capabilities for the next generation of causal knowledge representation standards.

Throop, David R.↗