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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

A ModEx Framework for Watershed Subsurface Investigation With Limited Geophysical Data Using Machine Learning and Hydrologic Modeling

Abstract Subsurface heterogeneity influences watershed hydrology strongly but remains difficult to characterize at catchment scales with sparse and costly field data. Geophysical surveys such as electromagnetic induction (EMI) provide local spatial subsurface images yet scaling them to watershed scales and converting EMI‐derived resistivity into hydraulic properties remains a challenge. We present a Model–Experiment (ModEx) framework that integrates limited EMI data with machine learning (ML) and hydrologic modeling to improve process representation and guide field investigations. Sparse EMI surveys were scaled to the catchment scale using a Random Forest model, and the resulting resistivity fields were combined with nearby borehole constraints to parameterize a hydrologic model. The EMI‐informed hydrological simulations improved predictions of streamflow sustained by subsurface flow and shallow saturation patterns. By combining EMI data and ML with hydrologic modeling, the ModEx framework guides future subsurface surveys, providing a transferable and efficient strategy for data–model integration across diverse watersheds. Plain Language Summary Mapping the underground network of soil and rock that controls water is essential for predicting floods and droughts, but seeing underground is difficult and expensive. We cannot drill everywhere, so scientists use geophysical tools to scan broad areas. There are two key challenges: these geophysical scans are often sparse across the whole watershed, and the geophysical data is hard to translate into water‐related properties. We used artificial intelligence to solve these problems. We taught a computer to find patterns linking the limited geophysical data to the land surface properties. This allowed it to fill in the gaps and create a complete, useful subsurface map for the entire watershed. This new map improves hydrologic simulations, leading to more accurate predictions of water movement in the watershed. It also helps scientists build better models with less data and generates a priority map showing where to measure next, making future investigations more efficient. Key Points Limited EMI scaled with ML improves catchment‐scale subsurface parameterization for hydrologic models The framework integrates hydrologic modeling with limited geophysical data to support subsurface investigation design ModEx framework offers a transferable data–model integration strategy that quantifies and reduces uncertainty guiding watershed studies

Chen, Hang↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven predictions of the time remaining until critical global warming thresholds are reached

Leveraging artificial neural networks (ANNs) trained on climate model output, we use the spatial pattern of historical temperature observations to predict the time until critical global warming thresholds are reached. Although no observations are used during the training, validation, or testing, the ANNs accurately predict the timing of historical global warming from maps of historical annual temperature. The central estimate for the 1.5 °C global warming threshold is between 2033 and 2035, including a ±1σ range of 2028 to 2039 in the Intermediate (SSP2-4.5) climate forcing scenario, consistent with previous assessments. However, our data-driven approach also suggests a substantial probability of exceeding the 2 °C threshold even in the Low (SSP1-2.6) climate forcing scenario. While there are limitations to our approach, our results suggest a higher likelihood of reaching 2 °C in the Low scenario than indicated in some previous assessments—though the possibility that 2 °C could be avoided is not ruled out. Explainable AI methods reveal that the ANNs focus on particular geographic regions to predict the time until the global threshold is reached. Our framework provides a unique, data-driven approach for quantifying the signal of climate change in historical observations and for constraining the uncertainty in climate model projections. Given the substantial existing evidence of accelerating risks to natural and human systems at 1.5 °C and 2 °C, our results provide further evidence for high-impact climate change over the next three decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulating water dynamics related to pedogenesis across space and time: Implications for four-dimensional digital soil mapping

Digital soil mapping (DSM) relies on machine-learning and geostatistics to represent soil property observations across space. DSM techniques are powerful but often empirical, being limited to the quality and density of point samples. Water dynamics are closely related to soil variability, and the physics that govern water movement are well known. Hydrological properties can hence be simulated by physical models through space and time, unveiling key characteristics about soils. We propose the use of hydrologic models to map soils across the surface (2D), depth (1D), and time (1D)–which provides a 4D approach to digital soil mapping (4DSM). The Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) was applied to a watershed currently under pasture. Moisture sensors and wells were installed at different depths in the watershed on summit, sideslope and toeslope positions to validate the model. DHSVM simulations of soil moisture distribution and depth to saturation were performed during the hydrological year (October 2008-September 2009). Clusters of similar pixels based on soil moisture values were determined using Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) to align temporal data and K-means. Clustering was performed both seasonally and for the entire year. Temporal patterns simulated by DHSVM matched measurements given by moisture sensors and wells. Seasonal clusters differed from the annual cluster. Distinct clusters were observed for each season and with depth, showing that spatiotemporal soil variability is lost when statically assessing soils. Spatiotemporal clusters corroborated field observations of fragipan occurrence not explicitly spatially mapped by Soil Survey Geographic Database (SSURGO). If a connection can be made between water and soils, static and dynamic soil variability can be predicted using physically based hydrologic models. Hydrologic models can benefit soil mapping by enabling reliable 4D simulation of water dynamics, which are fundamental to soil variability and soil classification and directly relate to biological, physical and chemical soil processes not captured by typical soil sampling protocols.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Active learning of ternary alloy structures and energies

Abstract Machine learning models with uncertainty quantification have recently emerged as attractive tools to accelerate the navigation of catalyst design spaces in a data-efficient manner. Here, we combine active learning with a dropout graph convolutional network (dGCN) as a surrogate model to explore the complex materials space of high-entropy alloys (HEAs). We train the dGCN on the formation energies of disordered binary alloy structures in the Pd-Pt-Sn ternary alloy system and improve predictions on ternary structures by performing reduced optimization of the formation free energy, the target property that determines HEA stability, over ensembles of ternary structures constructed based on two coordinate systems: (a) a physics-informed ternary composition space, and (b) data-driven coordinates discovered by the Diffusion Maps manifold learning scheme. Both reduced optimization techniques improve predictions of the formation free energy in the ternary alloy space with a significantly reduced number of DFT calculations compared to a high-fidelity model. The physics-based scheme converges to the target property in a manner akin to a depth-first strategy, whereas the data-driven scheme appears more akin to a breadth-first approach. Both sampling schemes, coupled with our acquisition function, successfully exploit a database of DFT-calculated binary alloy structures and energies, augmented with a relatively small number of ternary alloy calculations, to identify stable ternary HEA compositions and structures. This generalized framework can be extended to incorporate more complex bulk and surface structural motifs, and the results demonstrate that significant dimensionality reduction is possible in thermodynamic sampling problems when suitable active learning schemes are employed.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mass dependence of halo baryon fractions from the kinetic Sunyaev–Zeldovich effect

ABSTRACT We detect the kinetic Sunyaev–Zeldovich imprint of peculiar motions of galaxy groups and clusters, using the photometric Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Legacy Surveys together with cosmic microwave background (CMB) maps from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT). We develop a comprehensive forward model based on the AbacusSummit cosmological simulations: Mock galaxy group catalogues and synthetic kinetic Sunyaev–Zeldovich (kSZ) maps are generated, together with a reconstructed peculiar velocity field that allows for photo-z errors, redshift-space distortions, and survey masks. We investigate possible contamination from the cosmic infrared background (CIB), finding that CIB effects are subdominant to the kSZ signal in the relevant ACT frequency channel. We then predict the kSZ signal expected when stacking CMB temperature maps around groups, taking account of their estimated radial velocities. Comparing the model with observations, we are able to constrain the total baryon fraction within haloes, as well as their internal gas profiles. We find evidence for mass dependence of the halo baryon fraction within the virial radius. The gas fraction in massive groups is consistent with the universal baryon fraction, but low-mass groups ($10^{12.5} \lesssim M\, /\, h^{-1}\, \mathrm{M}_\odot \lesssim 10^{14}$) are depleted to $0.38 \pm 0.11$ times the universal baryon fraction. We find this low virial baryon fraction to be consistent with an extended gas profile, for which the total baryon content reaches the universal value well beyond the virial radius. This conclusion is consistent with previous analyses using X-ray, kSZ, and weak lensing, and plausibly reflects energetic feedback processes from the galaxies in these haloes.

Roper, Finn A [Institute for Astronomy, University↗
DOE OSTI2025

Convolutional Neural Networks Trained on Internal Variability Predict Forced Response of TOA Radiation by Learning the Pattern Effect

Abstract Predicting forced, long‐term radiative feedbacks from internal climate variability has been a decades‐long quest in climate science. We train a convolutional neural network (CNN) to predict annual‐ and global‐mean top of the atmosphere radiation anomalies from time‐varying maps of near‐surface temperature in climate models. Trained on internal variability alone, the nonlinear CNN can predict radiation under strong climate change, outperforms a regularized linear regression approach, and works within and across different climate models. We show with explainable artificial intelligence methods that the CNN draws predictive skill from physically meaningful regions but at much smaller spatial scales than currently assumed.

Rugenstein, Maria [Colorado State University Fort ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Next Generation System Analysis Model: Recently Added Features and Future Plans

To better enable informed decision-making regarding the back-end of the nuclear fuel cycle, the Integrated Waste Management System (IWMS) program within the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) has been sponsoring the development and application of system analysis tools capable of analyzing various system options for the management of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste (HLW).With these tools, IWMS architecture analyses are being conducted to support the future deployment of a comprehensive nuclear waste management system that considers all major back-end aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle (i.e., transportation, storage, and disposal). The Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM) is an agent-based simulation software tool expressly designed to be capable of modeling features within various IWMS architectures. NGSAM imports data from Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)’s unified database (e.g., historic assembly information, thermal profiles for assembly heat, and at-reactor dry storage loadings) to ensure that each simulation initializes with a realistic representation of the state of commercial SNF in the U.S. Recent major enhancements implemented into NGSAM in the period since NGSAM was last presented at the WM2019 conference include: • Tracking of railroad escort car acquisition and buffer car acquisition • The addition of heavy haul truck (HHT) and barge routes for some sites, as well as support for user-defined inter-modal routes • Updates to the logic that checks the transportation cask thermal limit maps prior to package transport • An allocation method that predicts when reactor sites would pack assemblies from their spent fuel pools for dry storage, and prioritizes shipments directly from the pools of those reactor sites in the preceding periods (before the predicted loadings to dry storage), thus reducing the number of casks loaded into dry storage at reactor sites • The addition of “reactor site family” operational limits to restrict the number of loads of SNF taken from the pool and from dry storage at a given reactor site each year • Added support for multiple canister loading map options and packages with multiple compatible transportation overpacks • Updates to the handling of non-commercial SNF, including a new database that contains data to support the updates • Updates to allow analysis of hypothetical scenarios which include repackaging at reactor sites, e.g., for possible comparative analysis with other scenarios • Implementation of additional output reports, or modification of existing ones • The ability to generate and implement user edits via the NGSAM website • The ability to model loading SNF from pool storage at an interim storage facility (ISF) into dry storage at the ISF • The ability to model consolidating SNF from different existing storage containers at a DOE site into the same DOE standard canister • The ability to model transferring SNF casks from one transportation mode to another, e.g., from HHT to rail, referred to as transloading. These new features have improved NGSAM capabilities and users’ experience with the model. Preliminary NGSAM requirements for modeling advanced reactor fuels, reprocessing, treatment, and conditioning were considered, and this paper describes them at a high level. Other nuclear fuel cycle system analysis tools developed under sponsorship of DOE-NE, like the VISION code developed at Idaho National Laboratory, might be better suited for initial high-level analysis of those technologies and advanced fuel cycles. As technologies are developed and system concepts evolve, NGSAM could provide value by providing more detailed modeling of transport, storage, and disposal of spent fuel and wastes from advanced reactors and advanced fuel cycles at the fuel element and waste container level.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

How Snow Aggregate Ellipsoid Shape and Orientation Variability Affects Fall Speed and Self-Aggregation Rates

Snow aggregate shapes and orientations have long been known to exhibit substantial variability. Despite this observed variability, most weather and climate prediction models use fixed power-law functions that deterministically map particle size to mass and fall speed. As such, integrated quantities like precipitation and self-aggregation rates currently ignore nonlinear effects resulting from variation in shape and orientation for aggregates of the same size. This study therefore develops an analytic framework that couples an empirically based bivariate distribution of ellipsoid shapes to classical hydrodynamic theory so as to capture an appropriate dispersion of masses, projected areas, and fall speeds for an assumed size distribution. For a fixed aggregate size, shape variations produce approximately ±0.13 m s -1 standard deviation of fall speed which increases the mass flux fall speed dispersion by more than 100% over traditional microphysics models. This increased fall speed dispersion results predominantly from shape-induced mass dispersion whereas orientation and drag dispersion play a lesser role. Shape variations can increase mass- and reflectivity-weighted fall speeds by up to 60% of traditional models whereas self-aggregation rates can increase by a factor of 100 for very small slope parameters. This implies that aggregate shape variations effectively forestall the theorized onset of fall speed distribution narrowing and subsequent quenching of the aggregation process. As a result, it is likely that secondary ice formation is necessary to prevent an ever decreasing slope parameter. The mathematical theory presented in this study is used to develop simple correction factors for snow forecast and climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A New Residual Strain Mapping Program Using Energy Dispersive X-Ray Diffraction at the Advanced Photon Source

Here, the ability to non-destructively map the residual strain field inside an engineering component is important for predicting its fatigue life or developing processing methods to prevent failure or enhance performance. In this paper, we describe a new residual strain mapping program at the Advanced Photon Source, Argonne National Laboratory. The new program is based on energy dispersive x-ray diffraction (EDXRD). It is capable of non-destructively penetrating a several- cm thick polycrystalline sample fabricated from engineering alloys using high-energy x-rays and measuring the residual strain field with mm or better spatial resolution and approximately ±1 x 10 -4 strain resolution. A multi-element detector array is employed to measure multiple strain components simultaneously. The residual strain mapping setup is augmented with a high-energy tomography capability, allowing precise alignment of the material volume of interest for residual strain mapping and providing a complementary view of the structure to understand the measured strain field. These measurement capabilities are demonstrated using several strain mapping examples ranging from polycrystalline structural alloys to biological materials. We also provide some guidance for the future users of the program for a successful residual strain mapping experiment. We are expanding the capabilities of the new setup with various in situ capabilities including thermo-mechanical loading.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

A statistical model to predict ignition probability

Ignition capability is a critical design constraint for aeronautical gas turbines. However the current trend toward overall lean burn is detrimental to the engine ignition and relight and the ignition system must be adapted to ensure a fast and reliable light-round in all circumstances. As ignition is a stochastic phenomenon, the optimization of an ignition system requires to build ignition probability maps, which is difficult and costly with either experiment or numerical simulation as both require many tests. Here, this work proposes a model to predict the ignition probability map, knowing only flow statistics in non-reacting conditions, i.e., with only one test. The originality of the model is to construct statistics of the flame kernel trajectory, which are then combined with local flow indicators to evaluate the ignition probability at the considered sparking location. Application to a swirled burner operated in premixed, non-premixed and spray combustion modes illustrates the model concepts and demonstrates its ability to recover the experimental ignition map with good accuracy.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

When less is more: How increasing the complexity of machine learning strategies for geothermal energy assessments may not lead toward better estimates

Previous moderate- and high-temperature geothermal resource assessments of the western United States utilized data-driven methods and expert decisions to estimate resource favorability. Although expert decisions can add confidence to the modeling process by ensuring reasonable models are employed, expert decisions also introduce human and, thereby, model bias. This bias can present a source of error that reduces the predictive performance of the models and confidence in the resulting resource estimates. Our study aims to develop robust data-driven methods with the goals of reducing bias and improving predictive ability. We present and compare nine favorability maps for geothermal resources in the western United States using data from the U.S. Geological Survey's 2008 geothermal resource assessment. Two favorability maps are created using the expert decision-dependent methods from the 2008 assessment (i.e., weight-of-evidence and logistic regression). With the same data, we then create six different favorability maps using logistic regression (without underlying expert decisions), XGBoost, and support-vector machines paired with two training strategies. The training strategies are customized to address the inherent challenges of applying machine learning to the geothermal training data, which have no negative examples and severe class imbalance. We also create another favorability map using an artificial neural network. We demonstrate that modern machine learning approaches can improve upon systems built with expert decisions. We also find that XGBoost, a non-linear algorithm, produces greater agreement with the 2008 results than linear logistic regression without expert decisions, because the expert decisions in the 2008 assessment rendered the otherwise linear approaches non-linear despite the fact that the 2008 assessment used only linear methods. The F1 scores for all approaches appear low (F1 score < 0.10), do not improve with increasing model complexity, and, therefore, indicate the fundamental limitations of the input features (i.e., training data). Until improved feature data are incorporated into the assessment process, simple non-linear algorithms (e.g., XGBoost) perform equally well or better than more complex methods (e.g., artificial neural networks) and remain easier to interpret.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigation of the thermal conductivity of molten LiF-NaF-KF with experiments, theory, and equilibrium molecular dynamics

Molten salts are being proposed for numerous advanced energy applications, including advanced nuclear reactors, concentrating solar power plants, thermal energy storage, and fusion reactors. Accurate knowledge of the thermophysical properties of molten salts directly impact the performance of these energy systems and are essential for design and safety analyses. Thermal conductivity data for fluoride molten salts and mixtures are especially lacking. In this work, experimental measurements of thermal conductivity using the steady-state variable gap technique were performed on eutectic LiF-NaF-KF from 834 to 1195 K. The experiment accounts for radiative, convective, and conductive heat losses. In addition, theoretical and molecular dynamics models are used, from 750 K up to 1300 K, to estimate the thermal conductivity for comparison with the experimental results. The results of experiments show a weak negative deviation of thermal conductivity with temperature, unlike previous experimental results in the literature. The measured thermal conductivity magnitudes agree with the theoretical and molecular dynamics predictions, aside from the data above 1100 K, where heat losses and radiative errors are the most significant, having a 16% maximum deviation from theory. These experimental results provide new thermal conductivity data for the LiF-NaF-KF system and further validation of the predictive models. The theoretical model was used to map the composition and temperature dependent thermal conductivity of LiF-NaF-KF and the mapping’s deviation from a linear additivity estimation of thermal conductivity. Additionally, this mapping showed the highest deviations from linearity for KF-LiF rich mixtures and increasing deviation with temperature. Notably, the deviation from linearity near the LiF-NaF-KF eutectic composition was around 25%.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Detection of Forced Change Within Combined Climate Fields Using Explainable Neural Networks

Abstract Assessing forced climate change requires the extraction of the forced signal from the background of climate noise. Traditionally, tools for extracting forced climate change signals have focused on one atmospheric variable at a time, however, using multiple variables can reduce noise and allow for easier detection of the forced response. Following previous work, we train artificial neural networks to predict the year of single‐ and multi‐variable maps from forced climate model simulations. To perform this task, the neural networks learn patterns that allow them to discriminate between maps from different years—that is, the neural networks learn the patterns of the forced signal amidst the shroud of internal variability and climate model disagreement. When presented with combined input fields (multiple seasons, variables, or both), the neural networks are able to detect the signal of forced change earlier than when given single fields alone by utilizing complex, nonlinear relationships between multiple variables and seasons. We use layer‐wise relevance propagation, a neural network explainability tool, to identify the multivariate patterns learned by the neural networks that serve as reliable indicators of the forced response. These “indicator patterns” vary in time and between climate models, providing a template for investigating inter‐model differences in the time evolution of the forced response. This work demonstrates how neural networks and their explainability tools can be harnessed to identify patterns of the forced signal within combined fields.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nonideal stability analysis of differentially rotating plasmas with global curvature effects

The linear stability of global nonaxisymmetric modes in differentially rotating, magnetized, nonideal plasma is critical to classifying turbulence and transport phenomena. We investigate the competition between the local magneto-rotational instability (MRI) and the magneto-curvature instability (MCI)—a distinct nonaxisymmetric low-frequency curvature-driven global branch that appears alongside MRI. Here, to accomplish this, we developed a nonideal global spectral method, which is validated against NIMROD code simulations. This spectral approach allows for the direct derivation of an extended effective potential formalism and a resistive Alfvénic resonance condition, providing a framework for direct analysis of energy contributions and confinement mechanisms. Our study reveals that the global, low-frequency MCI persists at low magnetic Reynolds numbers (Rm), whereas the localized, high-frequency MRI is stabilized by diffusive broadening of its structure around its Alfvénic resonances. Consequently, we identify the global MCI branch as the primary onset mechanism for nonaxisymmetric magnetohydrodynamic instability in systems with finite curvature, e.g., astrophysical rotators. We establish distinct parameter regimes for mode dominance: MCI prevails in geometrically moderate-thickness disks with intermediate curvature and radial gaps, while MRI dominates in thin, low-curvature disks with large radial gaps. Mode competition is also highly sensitive to the flow profile, particularly vorticity and its gradient, with nonuniform shear profiles exhibiting more robust instability due to flow curvature (i.e., the second derivative of the flow profile) and shear contributions. A key outcome is the development of spectral diagrams derived from the global spectral method. These diagrams comprehensively map dominant instabilities and their characteristics, offering a predictive tool for critical onset parameters (i.e., flow curvature, magnetic field, and Rm) and facilitating the interpretation of experimental and simulation results. Notably, these diagrams demonstrate that the global MCI is generally the sole unstable mode at the initial onset of nonaxisymmetric instability.

Haywood, Alexander [Princeton Univ., NJ (United St↗
DOE OSTI2025

Artificial Intelligence-Enhanced CMIP6 Climate Projections Across the Conterminous United States

This dataset comprises high-resolution climate projections at 1/24 degree grid (~4km) over the conterminous United States (CONUS) based on ten Global Climate Models (GCMs) that are part of the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The CMIP6 GCMs are downscaled using two artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, primarily based on the computer vision approach called super-resolution. We train two separate networks: super-resolution convolutional neural network (SRCNN) and super-resolution generative adversarial network (SRGAN). The networks are trained using Daymet observations, originally available at a 1 km resolution. For training purposes, the Daymet data is interpolated to 1/24 degree (~4km), 0.25 degree and 1 degree, which serve as high, intermediate and low-resolution inputs respectively. For each of the SRCNN and SRGAN network, we use a two-step resolution enhancement, the first step generates 4x refinement from 1 degree to 0.25 degree and the second step generates 6x refinement from 0.25 degree to 1/24 degree (~4km). We downscale daily scale precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature for the six CMIP6 GCMs for 1980 to 2019 in the historical period and 2020 to 2059 in the near-term future under the shared socioeconomic pathway 585 and 245 (SSP585 and SSP245) emission scenarios. We also perform double bias-correction with Daymet observations using a quantile mapping approach, first for GCMs prior to making predictions at 1 degree grid and second after making final predictions at ~4km.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning for natural resource assessment: An application to the blind geothermal systems of Nevada

A study is underway to apply machine learning methods to evaluate natural resource potential. In particular, we are considering the search for blind geothermal systems in Nevada. Beginning with the data and experience from the previous Nevada play fairway analysis project, we are building models in TensorFlow/Keras and gaining experience toward predicting the geothermal resource potential as a probability map. During the first year of this project we have encountered several issues particular to using geological and geophysical data sets with these tools. Through an illustrative example we develop a promising workflow for future use as more data become available and are analyzed.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multi-tracer intensity mapping: cross-correlations, line noise & decorrelation

Line intensity mapping (LIM) is a rapidly emerging technique for constraining cosmology and galaxy formation using multi-frequency, low angular resolution maps. Many LIM applications crucially rely on cross-correlations of two line intensity maps, or of intensity maps with galaxy surveys or galaxy/CMB lensing. We present a consistent halo model to predict all these cross-correlations and enable joint analyses, in 3D redshift-space and for 2D projected maps. We extend the conditional luminosity function formalism to the multi-line case, to consistently account for correlated scatter between multiple galaxy line luminosities. This allows us to model the scale-dependent decorrelation between two line intensity maps, a key input for foreground rejection and for approaches that estimate auto-spectra from cross-spectra. This also enables LIM cross-correlations to reveal astrophysical properties of the interstellar medium inacessible with LIM auto-spectra. We expose the different sources of luminosity scatter or "line noise" in LIM, and clarify their effects on the 1-halo and galaxy shot noise terms. In particular, we show that the effective number density of halos can in some cases exceed that of galaxies, counterintuitively. Using observational and simulation input, we implement this halo model for the Hα, [Oiii], Lyman-α, CO and [Cii] lines. Here, we encourage observers and simulators to measure galaxy luminosity correlation coefficients for pairs of lines whenever possible. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/EmmanuelSchaan/HaloGen/tree/LIM. In a companion paper, we use this halo model formalism and code to highlight the degeneracies between cosmology and astrophysics in LIM, and to compare the LIM observables to galaxy detection for a number of surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗