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At least 217 records · Page 12

Vector-level feedforward control of LPBF melt pool area using a physics-based thermal model

Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) is an additive manufacturing technique that has gained popularity thanks to its ability to produce geometrically complex, fully dense metal parts. However, these parts are prone to internal defects and geometric inaccuracies, stemming in part from variations in the melt pool. Here, this paper proposes a novel vector-level feedforward control framework for regulating melt pool area in LPBF. By decoupling part-scale thermal behavior from small-scale melt pool physics, the controller provides a scale-agnostic prediction of melt pool area and efficient optimization over it. This is done by operating on two coupled lightweight models: a finite-difference thermal model that efficiently captures vector-level temperature fields and a reduced-order, analytical melt pool model. Each model is calibrated separately with minimal single-track and 2D experiments, and the framework is validated on a complex 3D geometry in both Inconel 718 and 316L stainless steel. Results showed that feedforward vector-level laser power scheduling reduced geometric inaccuracy in key dimensions by 62%, overall porosity by 16.5%, and photodiode root-mean-squared deviation by 38.5% on average. Overall, this modular, data-efficient approach demonstrates that proactively compensating for known thermal effects can significantly improve part quality while remaining computationally efficient and readily extensible to other materials and machines.

Additive manufacturing↗

Using AI to predict calibration constants for the central drift chamber in GlueX at Jefferson Lab

The AI for Experimental Controls project team at Jefferson Lab has developed an AI system to control and calibrate a large drift chamber system in near-real time. The AI system will monitor environmental and experimental variables to recommend voltage settings that maintain consistent dE/dx gain and optimal resolution throughout the experiment. At present, calibrations are performed after data have been recorded and require a considerable amount of time and attention from experts. The calibrations currently require multiple iterations and depend on accurate tracking information. Our approach uses environmental data, such as atmospheric pressure and gas temperature, and beam conditions, such as the flux of incident particles, as inputs to a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model. For the data taken during the GlueX 2020 run period, the GPR is able to predict the existing gain correction factors to within 3.5%. This talk will briefly describe the development, testing, and future plans for this system at Jefferson Lab.

Jeske, Torri↗

The ARENA Test Bed – A Versatile Resource for I&C Development and Validation

The Accelerated and Real-time Experimental Nodal Assessment (ARENA) Test Bed at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is a versatile resource for development and validation of instrumentation and control (I&C) technologies. This capability was created to facilitate in-situ testing of nuclear electrical cables in various simulated operational environments. Using cable trays, a control box, and selected test components, low voltage cables can be staged to experience local adverse environments such as elevated temperature and water immersion. Cable condition can be continuously monitored over time to track the effect of local stresses using nondestructive assessment tools. A heads-up display (ARENA TV) plots key data in real-time for users. The ARENA Test Bed has recently been used to evaluate the potential for spread spectrum time domain reflectometry (SSTDR) to monitor thermal aging of a portion of live cable powering a three-phase motor. The arrangement provided the opportunity to directly compare the performance of the novel online SSTDR method with offline results from the more standard frequency domain reflectometry (FDR) method. The ability of SSTDR and FDR to identify the presence of water in immersed shielded and unshielded cables and to detect ground faults was also assessed. A digital twin is being developed to track and predict FDR signals from a thermally aging conceptual cable region to compare with measured signals from the ARENA physical counterpart. The test bed concept addresses an important need in nuclear I&C monitoring tool development. New tools and techniques can be developed in the test bed and validated versus known methods and physical measurements. Digital twins and machine learning engines can be populated with measured data in a controlled environment that would not be readily available in the actual nuclear power plant. Proposed monitoring strategies can be confirmed for effectiveness through objective evaluation. It is anticipated that the PNNL ARENA Test Bed will be a valuable resource in advancing nuclear plant instrumentation.

nuclear electrical cables, ARENA Test Bed, conditi↗

Triple flame structure and diffusion flame stabilization

The stabilization of diffusion flames is studied using asymptotic techniques and numerical tools. The configuration studied corresponds to parallel streams of cold oxidizer and fuel initially separated by a splitter plate. It is shown that stabilization of a diffusion flame may only occur in this situation by two processes. First, the flame may be stabilized behind the flame holder in the wake of the splitter plate. For this case, numerical simulations confirm scalings previously predicted by asymptotic analysis. Second, the flame may be lifted. In this case a triple flame is found at longer distances downstream of the flame holder. The structure and propagation speed of this flame are studied by using an actively controlled numerical technique in which the triple flame is tracked in its own reference frame. It is then possible to investigate the triple flame structure and velocity. It is shown, as suggested from asymptotic analysis, that heat release may induce displacement speeds of the triple flame larger than the laminar flame speed corresponding to the stoichiometric conditions prevailing in the mixture approaching the triple flame. In addition to studying the characteristics of triple flames in a uniform flow, their resistance to turbulence is investigated by subjecting triple flames to different vortical configurations.

Veynante, D.↗

A Real-Time Position-Locating Algorithm for CCD-Based Sunspot Tracking

NASA Marshall Space Flight Center's (MSFC) EXperimental Vector Magnetograph (EXVM) polarimeter measures the sun's vector magnetic field. These measurements are taken to improve understanding of the sun's magnetic field in the hopes to better predict solar flares. Part of the procedure for the EXVM requires image motion stabilization over a period of a few minutes. A high speed tracker can be used to reduce image motion produced by wind loading on the EXVM, fluctuations in the atmosphere and other vibrations. The tracker consists of two elements, an image motion detector and a control system. The image motion detector determines the image movement from one frame to the next and sends an error signal to the control system. For the ground based application to reduce image motion due to atmospheric fluctuations requires an error determination at the rate of at least 100 hz. It would be desirable to have an error determination rate of 1 kHz to assure that higher rate image motion is reduced and to increase the control system stability. Two algorithms are presented that are typically used for tracking. These algorithms are examined for their applicability for tracking sunspots, specifically their accuracy if only one column and one row of CCD pixels are used. To examine the accuracy of this method two techniques are used. One involves moving a sunspot image a known distance with computer software, then applying the particular algorithm to see how accurately it determines this movement. The second technique involves using a rate table to control the object motion, then applying the algorithms to see how accurately each determines the actual motion. Results from these two techniques are presented.

Taylor, Jaime R.↗

Increased ephemeris accuracy using attitude-dependent aerodynamic force coefficients for inertially stabilized spacecraft

The FREEMAC program used to generate the aerodynamic coefficients, as well as associated routines that allow the results to be used in other software is described. These capabilities are applied in two numerical examples to the short-term orbit prediction of the Gamma Ray Observatory (GRO) and Hubble Space Telescope (HST) spacecraft. Predictions using attitude-dependent aerodynamic coefficients were made on a modified version of the PC-based Ephemeris Generation Program (EPHGEN) and were compared to definitive orbit solutions obtained from actual tracking data. The numerical results show improvement in the predicted semi-major axis and along-track positions that would seem to be worth the added computational effort. Finally, other orbit and attitude analysis applications are noted that could profit from using FREEMAC-calculated aerodynamic coefficients, including orbital lifetime studies, orbit determination methods, attitude dynamics simulators, and spacecraft control system component sizing.

Folta, David C.↗

Online thermal profile prediction for large format additive manufacturing: A hybrid CNN-LSTM based approach

Large format additive manufacturing (LFAM) is an advanced 3D printing technique that efficiently fabricates large-scale components through a layer-by-layer extrusion and deposition process. Accurate surface layer temperature monitoring is essential to prevent manufacturing failures and ensure final product quality. Traditional physics-based offline approaches for simulating thermal behavior are often inefficient and complex, posing challenges on real-time, in-situ monitoring. Here, to address this, we propose a data-driven hybrid CNN-LSTM model to predict sequential thermal images of arbitrary length using real-time infrared thermal imaging. In this approach, a Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) is trained offline to capture spatial features, reduce dimensional complexity, and enhance time efficiency, while a stacked Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) is applied online to capture temporal information for improved prediction of future thermal behavior in subsequent printing layers. Model performance is evaluated using MSE, SSIM, and PSNR metrics and is benchmarked against stacked LSTM and convolutional LSTM models, demonstrating superior accuracy and applicability. Additionally, to mitigate noise from moving extruders and gantry backgrounds in thermal images, a fine-tuned semantic segmentation model is implemented offline to extract printing geometry, enabling precise temperature tracking along the tool path for further thermal analysis. The frameworks developed in this study significantly advance temperature monitoring, thermal analysis, and in-situ manufacturing control for LFAM, bridging the gap between theoretical modeling and practical application.

Geometry extraction↗

From atomistic models to machine learning: Predictive design of nanocarbons under extreme conditions

The formation of technologically valuable nanocarbon structures under extreme conditions, such as those produced during high-explosive detonations, remains poorly understood but holds significant potential for the development of controlled synthesis pathways. While detonation shockwaves provide the high-pressure, high-temperature environment required for nanodiamond formation, subsequent cooling and decompression dictate whether the diamond phase is preserved or transformed into other nanocarbon structures. Here, in this study, we employ GPU-accelerated reactive molecular dynamics (ReaxFF) simulations to investigate the graphitization and structural remodeling of detonation nanodiamond under nonlinear quench and pressure-release trajectories. We further investigate how the initial nanodiamond morphology; cuboctahedral, octahedral, or hexagonal prism influences the resulting transformation products. Evolution of nanostructure, allotrope (via simulated x-ray diffraction), carbon hybridization, and ring statistics are tracked during a two-stage quench from 5000 K to 60 GPa. Rapid cooling combined with slow decompression optimizes cubic diamond retention, whereas slow cooling with rapid pressure release promotes surface-to-core graphitization, producing concentric sp 2 -hybridized layers and hollowed inner shells. Octahedral nanodiamonds evolve into carbon nano-onions, initially forming bucky diamonds that progressively transform into fully sp 2 -hybridized structures, while hexagonal prisms preferentially form parallel-stacked graphite layers resembling carbon dots. Transient hexagonal diamond (lonsdaleite) emerges as an interfacial phase, suggesting potential reversibility in the shock-induced graphite-to-diamond transformation pathway transformation route. To extend predictive capabilities, we trained machine learning (ML) regressors on over 10 5 node-hours of molecular dynamics (MD) trajectories. A multilayer perceptron (MLP) model reliably predicts the number of graphitized layers from temperature–pressure trajectories with a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) exceeding 0.90. This high predictive fidelity enables efficient, high-throughput mapping of the synthesis parameter space for optimized graphitization outcomes. Collectively, morphological control combined with optimized quench–decompression conditions promote the selective synthesis of nanocarbon allotropes. This work establishes a data-driven framework for the rational, a priori design of carbon nanomaterials for applications in energy storage, sensing, and biomedicine.

Detonation nanodiamond remodeling↗

Low-Cost Heliostat for High-Flux Small-Area Receivers (Final Technical Report)

This project analyzed a two-stage heliostat concept consisting of a tracking stage and a concentrating stage. The tracking stage uses mirrors mounted on a common drive that move to track the sun. The concentrating stage consists of stationary mirrors that each have a unique angle to direct rays towards a small-area, high-flux, point-focused receiver. By splitting the collection and concentrating process into two stages, multiple small, inexpensive mirrors can share a structure and be controlled by a single drive in the tracking stage. The project effort developed modeling techniques that were specifically relevant to this two-stage heliostat concept. Both field-level and unit-level models were developed. The field-level model does not explicitly consider unit-level losses which are predicted by the unit-level model and then integrated into the field-level model through a correlation referred to as an efficiency modifier. This approach is referred to as the two-model approach; the development and demonstration of this two-model approach for a multi-stage heliostat technology is a key outcome of this work. The field-level model is used to design a field that hits a specific design day power given a set of heliostat design parameters. An oversized field is simulated and then heliostat units are removed based on their annual energy production in order to generate the highest performing field. The field reduction procedure fits a smooth curve fit to annual energy production as a function of position in the field which has the effect of reducing the noise that is otherwise caused by the Monte Carlo ray tracing technique. This approach is referred to as the annual energy fit method and substantially reduces computational run time for a given field level modeling accuracy. The annual energy fit approach enables the selection of a properly sized, high-performing field using orders of magnitude fewer rays than would otherwise be possible and the development of this approach is a second key outcome of this work. These models are used within a genetic optimization algorithm in order to optimize the geometric parameters associated with a heliostat in order to achieve the lowest cost per unit of collected design day power. The cost modeling that underlies the optimization is a simple, scaling type analysis backed up by a much more detailed Design for Manufacture and Assembly (DFMA) analysis. Although the figure of merit used for optimization was not cost per mirror area, this metric is reasonable to use as a means of comparison. The optimally designed 500 kW design has a tracking mirror specific cost of $181.85/m 2 , which is significantly larger than the target value and also larger than the current state of the art. The cost of the torque-tube type linkages contributed substantially to the overall cost. Based on this observation, potentially attractive alternative design configuration utilizing a capstan type actuation system should be investigated. Finally, NREL compared the performance of the two-stage heliostat to the performance of a focused and different sized flat conventional heliostats and showed that, as expected, additional losses versus the convention heliostat caused by a worse cosine efficiency, two stages of reflection, and interstage interactions. The two-stage heliostat requires around 75% more reflective area than a flat 1x1 meter conventional heliostat (similar to a focused heliostat) and 40% more than a flat 2x2 meter conventional heliostat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Network Based Estimation of Wind Farm Power and Velocity Data Under Changing Wind Direction

This paper describes an estimation algorithm for velocity and power output signals in a wind farm under changing wind direction. A graph-theoretic definition describes the wind farm as a collection of nodes (turbines) and time-varying weighted edges (inter-turbine wake propagation) that change as a function of incoming wind direction. The velocity at each turbine is determined through a discrete input-output model. Changes in wind direction serve as the input and the output is defined in terms of a time-varying weighted adjacency matrix that depends on the time-delay of information propagation between turbines. These delays, which are defined in terms of the advection speed of the wind and the distance between the turbines, capture the delayed effect of wind direction changes on the inter-connectivity of the graph as the wind conditions at the farm inlet propagate through the turbine array. An event-based update framework is employed to capture time-dependent topology changes due to shifts in wind direction. Simulation results for dynamically changing wind inlet directions to a circular wind farm are compared to predictions from both the static and dynamic versions of the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) model. The approach is shown to enable real-time tracking of dynamic changes to wind farm power output within a framework that can be easily integrated into real-time, horizon-based, control strategies that typically do not account for wind direction changes.

distributed↗

Determination of atmospheric density using a space-launched projectile

A method is proposed that provides advance information about unpredictable atmospheric density dispersions that must be accommodated during random operations of aeroassisted-orbital-transfer vehicles (AOTVs). The principal feature is that a test or 'scout' projectile precedes the AOTV through the same region of the atmosphere as that of the predicted transatmospheric flight trajectory. The atmospheric density structure is determined from the vehicle's aerodynamic deceleration characteristics by on-board or ground-based tracking equipment. The time lag between passage of the projectile and the AOTV can be adjusted to only that time necessary to implement required guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) corrections. The various strategies available to control the projectile's flight characteristics are analyzed in detail. The results are correlated with aerothermodynamic heating and materials requirements to ensure the survival of the projectile and, consequently, the capability of the AOTV to navigate a variable upper atmosphere within specified limits.

Menees, G. P.↗

Solar Power Satellite antenna phase control system hardware simulation, phase 4. Volume 3: SOLARSIM users manual

Documentation of the interactive software package designed to predict the effect of certain electrical and mechanical imperfections on the performance of the SPS system is presented. The capabilities of the SOLARSIM program to quantify the spacetenna performance parameter values are described. The SOLARSIM package can compute the RMS pointing error, title effects, MPTX code tracking loop performance, MPTX carrier tracking loop performance, averaged power pattern, and the power transfer efficiency.

Lindsey, W. C.↗

Verification of the Solar Dynamics Observatory High Gain Antenna Pointing Algorithm Using Flight Data

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is a NASA spacecraft designed to study the Sun. It was launched on February 11, 2010 into a geosynchronous orbit, and uses a suite of attitude sensors and actuators to finely point the spacecraft at the Sun. SDO has three science instruments: the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), and the Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE). SDO uses two High Gain Antennas (HGAs) to send science data to a dedicated ground station in White Sands, New Mexico. In order to meet the science data capture budget, the HGAs must be able to transmit data to the ground for a very large percentage of the time. Each HGA is a dual-axis antenna driven by stepper motors. Both antennas transmit data at all times, but only a single antenna is required in order to meet the transmission rate requirement. For portions of the year, one antenna or the other has an unobstructed view of the White Sands ground station. During other periods, however, the view from both antennas to the Earth is blocked for different portions of the day. During these times of blockage, the two HGAs take turns pointing to White Sands, with the other antenna pointing out to space. The HGAs handover White Sands transmission responsibilities to the unblocked antenna. There are two handover seasons per year, each lasting about 72 days, where the antennas hand off control every twelve hours. The non-tracking antenna slews back to the ground station by following a ground commanded trajectory and arrives approximately 5 minutes before the formerly tracking antenna slews away to point out into space. The SDO Attitude Control System (ACS) runs at 5 Hz, and the HGA Gimbal Control Electronics (GCE) run at 200 Hz. There are 40 opportunities for the gimbals to step each ACS cycle, with a hardware limitation of no more than one step every three GCE cycles. The ACS calculates the desired gimbal motion for tracking the ground station or for slewing, and sends the command to the GCE at 5 Hz. This command contains the number of gimbals steps for that ACS cycle, the direction of motion, the spacing of the steps, and the delay before taking the first step. The AIA and HMI instruments are sensitive to spacecraft jitter. Pre-flight analysis showed that jitter from the motion of the HGAs was a cause of concern. Three jitter mitigation techniques were developed to overcome the effects of jitter from different sources. The first method is the random step delay, which avoids gimbal steps hitting a cadence on a jitter-critical mode by pseudo-randomly delaying the first gimbal step in an ACS cycle. The second method of jitter mitigation is stagger stepping, which forbids the two antennas from taking steps during the same ACS cycle in order to avoid constructively adding jitter from two antennas. The third method is the inclusion of an instrument No Step Request (NSR), which allows the instruments to request a stoppage in gimbal stepping during the times when they are taking images. During the commissioning phase of the mission, a jitter test was performed onboard the spacecraft. Various sources of jitter, such as the reaction wheels, the High Gain Antenna motors, and the motion of the instrument filter wheels, were examined to determine the level of their effect on the instruments. During the HGA portion of the test, the jitter amplitudes from the single step of a gimbal were examined, as well as the amplitudes due to the execution of various gimbal rates. These jitter levels are compared with the gimbal jitter allocations for each instrument. Additionally, the jitter test provided insight into a readback delay that exists with the GCE. Pre-flight analysis suggested that gimbal steps scheduled to occur during the later portion of an ACS cycle would not be read during that cycle, resulting in a delay in the telemetered current gimbal position. Flight data from the jitter test confirmed this expectation. Analysis is presentehat shows the readback delay does not have a negative impact on gimbal control. The decision was made to consider implementing two of the jitter mitigation techniques on board the spacecraft: stagger stepping and the NSR. Flight data from two sets of handovers, one set without jitter mitigation and the other with mitigation enabled, were examined. The trajectory of the predicted handover was compared with the measured trajectory for the two cases, showing that tracking was not negatively impacted with the addition of the jitter mitigation techniques. Additionally, the individual gimbal steps were examined, and it was confirmed that the stagger stepping and NSRs worked as designed. An Image Quality Test was performed to determine the amount of cumulative jitter from the reaction wheels, HGAs, and instruments during various combinations of typical operations. In this paper, the flight results are examined from a test where the HGAs are following the path of a nominal handover with stagger stepping on and HMI NSRs enabled. In this case, the reaction wheels are moving at low speed and the instruments are taking pictures in their standard sequence. The flight data shows the level of jitter that the instruments see when their shutters are open. The HGA-induced jitter is well within the jitter requirement when the stagger step and NSR mitigation options are enabled. The SDO HGA pointing algorithm was designed to achieve nominal antenna pointing at the ground station, perform slews during handover season, and provide three HGA-induced jitter mitigation options without compromising pointing objectives. During the commissioning phase, flight data sets were collected to verify the HGA pointing algorithm and demonstrate its jitter mitigation capabilities.

Bourkland, Kristin L.↗

Laser tracking for vertical control

The Global Laser Tracking Network has provided LAGEOS ranging data of high accuracy since the first MERIT campaign in late 1983 and we can now resolve centimeter-level three dimensional positions of participating observatories at monthly intervals. In this analysis, the station height estimates have been considered separately from the horizontal components, and can be determined by the strongest stations with a formal standard error of 2 mm using eight years of continuous observations. The rate of change in the vertical can be resolved to a few mm/year, which is at the expected level of several geophysical effects. In comparing the behavior of the stations to that predicted by recent models of post-glacial rebound, we find no correlation in this very small effect. Particular attention must be applied to data and survey quality control when measuring the vertical component, and the survey observations are critical components of the geodynamic results. Seasonal patterns are observed in the heights of most stations, and the possibility of secular motion at the level of several millimeters per year cannot be excluded. Any such motion must be considered in the interpretation of horizontal inter-site measurements, and can help to identify mechanisms which can cause variations which occur linearly with time, seasonally, or abruptly.

Dunn, Peter↗

Dynamic response for thermal control and measurement and fast radiation thermometry

A preliminary evaluation was made by ORNL of a two-color ratio pyrometer (TCRP) for temperature control in the Modular Electromagnetic Levitation (MEL) experiment. A discussion was presented by Eric Spjut at the 1987 NASA Non-Contact Temperature Measurement Workshop (NASA Conf. Publ. 2503, pp. 182-213) in which he described the non-linear characteristics of the time response of TCPs. Researchers replicated his model and results and note that the non-linear response behavior is minimized for small temperature steps at high temperatures. They then used the predicted response in a model for a proportional or integral feedback controller and predicted the control characteristics for heating and cooling a 5-mm diameter sphere of niobium at high (1500 to 2750 K) temperatures. The analysis shows that for a slow (25-ms) time response for a commercial RCRP, overshoots of several hundred kelvins will result from a 100-K decrease in the setpoint, and temperature tracking errors of 14 to 45 K will occur for control temperature ramps of 1000K/s. For a fast (greater than 0.1 ms) time response, the overshoot and ramp response errors are largely eliminated.

Shepard, R. L.↗

Transonic dislocation propagation in diamond

Here, the motion of line defects (dislocations) has been studied for more than 60 years, but the maximum speed at which they can move is unresolved. Recent models and atomistic simulations predict the existence of a limiting velocity of dislocation motion between the transonic and subsonic ranges at which the self-energy of dislocation diverges, though they do not deny the possibility of the transonic dislocations. We used femtosecond x-ray radiography to track ultrafast dislocation motion in shock-compressed single-crystal diamond. By visualizing stacking faults extending faster than the slowest sound wave speed of diamond, we show the evidence of partial dislocations at their leading edge moving transonically. Understanding the upper limit of dislocation mobility in crystals is essential to accurately model, predict, and control the mechanical properties of materials under extreme conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Comparative Study of Contrail Frequency Indices and GOES-16 Contrail Data Set

Contrail formations have been shown to contribute to the greenhouse effect: they are practically transparent to incoming solar radiation and do little to reflect heat away from Earth but are highly effective at trapping heat within Earth’s atmosphere. To understand the impact contrails have on climate change, contrail frequency indices (CFIs) can be used as a method to quantify aircraft-induced persistent contrails. These indices are capable of tracking long-term contrail formation and identify regions of airspace with the highest contrail formation rates. In this aper, an algorithm is proposed which is capable of using NASA Sherlock and Global Forecast System (GFS) datasets and computing CFIs over large geographic regions and long temporal intervals using NASA Ames’ High-End Computing Capability (HECC) supercomputing system. CFIs are computed using nowcast weather data and previously flown flight tracks. This paper calculated the CFIs of all twenty Air Route Traffic Control Centers in the National Airspace System on October 28th, 2019 and compared the distribution of non-zero CFIs with observed contrail data collected from GOES-16 Satellite data in order to assess the accuracy of the CFI system as a contrail prediction model. It was ultimately determined that the computed CFIs were broadly distributed in the same way as the GOES-16 contrail data and that the individual CFIs computed at the latitude/longitude points at which GOES-16 contrail masks were available had high precision and recall (at 0.75 and 0.86 respectively). While these validation results bode well for the accuracy of the CFI method, the number of provided GOES-16 masks was quite small. Future work should aim to increase the size of the GOES-16 dataset in order to perform a more comprehensive comparison between these two datasets.

Contrails↗

A Comparative Study of Contrail Frequency Indices and GOES-16 Contrail Data Set

Contrail formations have been shown to contribute to the greenhouse effect: they are practically transparent to incoming solar radiation and do little to reflect heat away from Earth but are highly effective at trapping heat within Earth’s atmosphere. To understand the impact contrails have on climate change, contrail frequency indices (CFIs) can be used as a method to quantify aircraft-induced persistent contrails. These indices are capable of tracking long-term contrail formation and identify regions of airspace with the highest contrail formation rates. In this aper, an algorithm is proposed which is capable of using NASA Sherlock and Global Forecast System (GFS) datasets and computing CFIs over large geographic regions and long temporal intervals using NASA Ames’ High-End Computing Capability (HECC) supercomputing system. CFIs are computed using nowcast weather data and previously flown flight tracks. This paper calculated the CFIs of all twenty Air Route Traffic Control Centers in the National Airspace System on October 28th, 2019 and compared the distribution of non-zero CFIs with observed contrail data collected from GOES-16 Satellite data in order to assess the accuracy of the CFI system as a contrail prediction model. It was ultimately determined that the computed CFIs were broadly distributed in the same way as the GOES-16 contrail data and that the individual CFIs computed at the latitude/longitude points at which GOES-16 contrail masks were available had high precision and recall (at 0.75 and 0.86 respectively). While these validation results bode well for the accuracy of the CFI method, the number of provided GOES-16 masks was quite small. Future work should aim to increase the size of the GOES-16 dataset in order to perform a more comprehensive comparison between these two datasets.

Contrails↗