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At least 217 records · Page 12

Techno-Economic Analysis Using REopt for Community Solar on Multifamily Affordable Housing Properties [Slides]

Multifamily affordable housing (MFAH) providers can identify and prioritize properties in their portfolios for which community solar development is feasible by following portfolio screening steps in a process outlined by NREL. Once MFAH providers have identified the most feasible sites, they can conduct more detailed analyses for a select number of sites to assess how distributed energy resources such as solar plus storage can help them meet their goals. The step is completed using NREL's REopt (https://reopt.nrel.gov/tool), a free techno-economic optimization model that determines DER sizes and dispatch strategies that minimize the life cycle cost of energy at a site. This presentation describes how to perform this step using REopt to help MFAH providers answer questions such as: What size solar PV system will result in the most energy bill savings at this site? What size solar-plus-storage system would be needed to power critical loads through a utility grid outage? What is the financial impact of rate switching, net metering, and/or meter aggregation? What percentage of the site's load can be offset with renewable energy? What are the emissions benefits of this renewable generation?

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Energy Efficient Mobility Systems (2022 Annual Progress Report)

DOE conducts research to understand how the changing mobility landscape will affect transportation energy consumption and identifies opportunities to create more efficient, affordable, reliable, accessible, equitable, and secure transportation options that enhance mobility for individuals and businesses. Within EERE, the EEMS Program is responsible for this research portfolio. This APR describes work that the EEMS Program conducted during FY 2022 in support of the EEMS Program goals.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Equitable Energy Metrics for Integration into Building Performance Standard Tracking Platforms: Preprint

Building Performance Standards (BPS) are being adopted globally and in the United States of America, where 14 different states and jurisdictions have a policy in place and many others are under development (Department of Energy (DOE) 2023). Accurate and equitable data sources are essential to make informed decisions about focusing investment on upgrading buildings to meet jurisdictional goals. There have been multiple new tools developed related to Energy Equity and Environmental Justice (EEEJ) and the resulting datasets need to be integrated into large building port-folios for quick access and better scalability. Integrating EEEJ data in a user-friendly format can help decision makers more quickly assess impacts and analyze the multitude of potentially significant metrics for which there is not yet consensus. In the U.S. and Canada, many BPS ordinances rely primarily on ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager (ESPM) to capture building characteristics and energy and water consumption data. These datasets can then be imported into city-specific building tracking tools like the Standard Energy Efficiency Data Platform (SEED). Crucially, BPS decision makers require an efficient means of identifying buildings in priority communities to effectively allocate resources and funding. This process must integrate seamlessly with existing jurisdictional toolsets for optimal utility. This paper will demonstrate, for the case of Washington D.C.'s (the District) data, a workflow that provides actionable data for building upgrade investment prioritization in disadvantaged communities.

BPS↗

REopt Screenings Catalyze Development of Hundreds of Megawatts of Renewable Energy for Federal Agencies

The Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) offers renewable energy project assistance to federal agencies, which often begins with a desktop screening to develop a prioritized portfolio of project opportunities. FEMP uses the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's REopt energy planning platform to screen potential renewable energy opportunities at a single site or across a range of sites. REopt helps organizations prioritize the most economi­cally and technically viable projects for further study and identifies the size and mix of technologies that meet the orga­nization's goals at minimum cost, along with the optimal operating strategies.

FEMP↗

Co-Optimization of Fuels & Engines: Efficiency Merit Function for Spark-Ignition Engines; Revisions and Improvements Based on FY16-17 Research

Early in fiscal year 2016 (FY16), a fuel efficiency 'merit function' was developed to provide a simple tool to evaluate the potential thermal efficiency benefits of various fuels when multiple fuel properties or performance metrics are changing simultaneously. It has also proven to be useful for evaluating various fuel candidates and provides a useful framework for capturing and summarizing results from multiple projects within the Co-Optima Fuel Properties and Advanced Engine Development research portfolios. The objective of this report is to collect pertinent research results from FY16 and the first half of FY17, and to integrate them into an improved merit function.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Ensuring Profitability of Energy Storage

Energy storage (ES) is a pivotal technology for dealing with the challenges caused by the integration of renewable energy sources. It is expected that a decrease in the capital cost of storage will eventually spur the deployment of large amounts of ES. These devices will provide transmission services, such as spatiotemporal energy arbitrage, i.e., storing surplus energy from intermittent renewable sources for later use by loads while reducing the congestion in the transmission network. This paper proposes a bilevel program that determines the optimal location and size of storage devices to perform this spatiotemporal energy arbitrage. This method aims to simultaneously reduce the system-wide operating cost and the cost of investments in ES while ensuring that merchant storage devices collect sufficient profits to fully recover their investment cost. Finally, the usefulness of the proposed method is illustrated using a representative case study of the ISO New England system with a prospective wind generation portfolio.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Simplified predictive models for CO 2 sequestration performance assessment

CO2 sequestration in deep saline formations is increasingly being considered as a viable strategy for the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from anthropogenic sources. In this context, detailed numerical simulation based models are routinely used to understand key processes and parameters affecting pressure propagation and buoyant plume migration following CO2 injection into the subsurface. As these models are data and computation intensive, the development of computationally-efficient alternatives to conventional numerical simulators has become an active area of research. Such simplified models can be valuable assets during preliminary CO2 injection project screening, serve as a key element of probabilistic system assessment modeling tools, and assist regulators in quickly evaluating geological storage projects. We present three strategies for the development and validation of simplified modeling approaches for CO2 sequestration in deep saline formations: (1) simplified physics-based modeling, (2) statisticallearning based modeling, and (3) reduced-order method based modeling. In the first category, a set of full-physics compositional simulations is used to develop correlations for dimensionless injectivity as a function of the slope of the CO2 fractional-flow curve, variance of layer permeability values, and the nature of vertical permeability arrangement. The same variables, along with a modified gravity number, can be used to develop a correlation for the total storage efficiency within the CO2 plume footprint. Furthermore, the dimensionless average pressure buildup after the onset of boundary effects can be correlated to dimensionless time, CO2 plume footprint, and storativity contrast between the reservoir and caprock. In the second category, statistical “proxy models” are developed using the simulation domain described previously with two approaches: (a) classical Box-Behnken experimental design with a quadratic response surface, and (b) maximin Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) based design with a multidimensional kriging metamodel fit. For roughly the same number of simulations, the LHS-based metamodel yields a more robust predictive model, as verified by a k-fold cross-validation approach (with data split into training and test sets) as well by validation with an independent dataset. In the third category, a reduced-order modeling procedure is utilized that combines proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) for reducing problem dimensionality with trajectory-piecewise linearization (TPWL) in order to represent system response at new control settings from a limited number of training runs. Significant savings in computational time are observed with reasonable accuracy from the PODTPWL reduced-order model for both vertical and horizontal well problems – which could be important in the context of history matching, uncertainty quantification and optimization problems. The simplified physics and statistical learning based models are also validated using an uncertainty analysis framework. Reference cumulative distribution functions of key model outcomes (i.e., plume radius and reservoir pressure buildup) generated using a 97-run full-physics simulation are successfully validated against the CDF from 10,000 sample probabilistic simulations using the simplified models. The main contribution of this research project is the development and validation of a portfolio of simplified modeling approaches that will enable rapid feasibility and risk assessment for CO2 sequestration in deep saline formations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Blockchain Research and Development Activities Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy and Utility Sector

This article provides an in-depth analysis of blockchain research in the energy sector, focusing on projects funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and comparing them with industry-funded initiatives. A total of 110 funded activities within the U.S. power industry were successfully tracked and mapped into a newly developed categorization framework. This framework is designed to help research agencies to systematically understand their funded portfolio. Such characterization is expected to help them make effective investments, identify research gaps, measure impact, and advance technological progress to meet national goals. In line with this need, the proposed framework proposes a 2-D categorization matrix to systematically classify blockchain efforts within the energy sector.Under the proposed framework, the Energy System Domain serves as the primary classification dimension, categorizing use cases into 30 distinct applications. The second dimension, Blockchain Properties, captures the specific needs and functionalities provided by Blockchain technology. The aim was to capture blockchain’s applicability and functionality: where and why blockchain? Principles behind the selection of the viewpoint dimensions were carefully defined based on consensus obtained through the Blockchain for Optimized Security and Energy Management (BLOSEM) project. The mapped results show that activities within the Grid Automation, Coordination, and Control (31.8%), Marketplaces and Trading (25.5%), Foundational Blockchain Research (19.1%), and Supply Chain Management (17.3%) domains have been actively pursued to date. The three leading specific use case applications were identified as Transactive Energy Management for Marketplaces and Trading, Asset Management for Supply Chain Management, and Fundamental Blockchain for Foundational Blockchain Research. The Marketplaces and Trading and Retail Services Enablement domains stood out as being favored by industry by a factor greater than 2 (2.3 and 2.6, respectively), yet there seemed to be little to zero investment from DOE. Approximately 76% of the total projects prioritized Immutability, Identity Management, and Decentralization and/or Disintermediation compared to Asset Digitization and/or Tokenization, Automation, and Privacy and/or Anonymity. The greatest discrepancies between DOE and industry were in Asset Digitization and/or Tokenization and Automation. The industry efforts (36% in Asset Digitization/Tokenization and 22% in Automation) was 14 times and 2.4 times, respectively, more intensive than the DOE-sponsored efforts, indicating a significant discrepancy in industry versus government priorities. Overall, quantifying DOE-sponsored projects and industry activities through mapping provides clarity on portfolio investments and opportunities for future research.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

TU-PIS-Exhibit Hall-01: CT Dose Optimization Technologies II

Partners in Solutions is an exciting new program in which AAPM partners with our vendors to present practical “hands-on” information about the equipment and software systems that we use in our clinics. The imaging topic this year is CT scanner dose optimization capabilities. Note that the sessions are being held in a special purpose room built on the Exhibit Hall Floor, to encourage further interaction with the vendors. Siemens‘ Commitment to the Right Dose in Computed Tomography Presentation Time: 11:15 - 11:45 AM Providing sustainable clinical results at highest patient safety: This is the challenge in medical imaging. Especially for Computed Tomography this means applying not simply the lowest, but the right dose for sound diagnostic imaging. Consequently, Siemens is committed to deliver the right dose in CT. In order to reduce radiation to the right dose, the first step is to provide the right dose technology. Through decades of research and development in CT imaging, Siemens CT has constantly introduced new ideas leading to a comprehensive portfolio of unique CARE technologies to deliver the right dose. For example automated kV adjustment based on patient size and the clinical question with CARE kV and three generations of iterative reconstruction. Based on the right dose technology, the next step is to actually scan at the right dose. For this, it is key to know the right dose targets for every examination. Siemens continuously involves CT experts to push developments further and outline how users can best adapt their procedures to the right dose. For users to know whether they met the right dose targets, it is therefore important to understand and monitor the actual absolute dose values. All scanners are delivered with defined default protocols which automatically use the available right dose technologies. Finally, to deliver the right dose not just in singular cases, but ideally to patients everywhere, organizations need then to manage dose across their institutions. Here Siemens offers the right dose management tools for administrations to analyze and document dose, to train their clinical staff and to continuously optimize the application of the right dose in clinical routine. Siemens CT is not only adhering to the ALARA principle, but is inspired by it. With CARE Right Siemens show their commitment to the right dose in CT. Toshiba Aquilion CT Dose Management Tools Presentation Time: 11:45 - 12:15 PM A practical review of Toshiba’s CT dose management technologies from the physicist’s perspective. This presentation will include an overview of Toshiba’s CT dose reduction technologies and dose safeguards. Content will include answers to frequently asked questions relating to dose management, dose tracking, CTDI measurement, ACR accreditation, ACR QC, and protocol review on Toshiba CT systems. Specific topics will include the following: Toshiba’s mechanism of tube current modulation; Exposure record format and interpretation of the values; Dose reporting and dose safeguard tools; Use of AIDR 3D iterative reconstruction; The configuration of task specific image quality target and its integration with AIDR 3D; Tips for scanning the ACR phantom with wide beam geometry; Measuring CTDI for wide beam geometry; Discussion of daily QC procedures and specifications; Tips for annual QC evaluation; Protocol management tools.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Risk of Performance Decrements and Adverse Health Outcomes Resulting from Sleep Loss, Circadian Desynchronization, and Work Overload

Sleep loss, circadian desynchronization, and work overload occur to some extent for ground and flight crews, prior to and during spaceflight missions. Ground evidence indicates that such risk factors may lead to performance decrements and adverse health outcomes, which could potentially compromise mission objectives. Efforts are needed to identify the environmental and mission conditions that interfere with sleep and circadian alignment, as well as individual differences in vulnerability and resiliency to sleep loss and circadian desynchronization. Specifically, this report highlights a collection of new evidence to better characterize the risk and reveals new gaps in this risk as follows: Sleep loss is apparent during spaceflight. Astronauts consistently average less sleep during spaceflight relative to on the ground. The causes of this sleep loss remain unknown, however ground-based evidence suggests that the sleep duration of astronauts is likely to lead to performance impairment and short and long-term health consequences. Further research is needed in this area in order to develop screening tools to assess individual astronaut sleep need in order to quantify the magnitude of sleep loss during spaceflight; current and planned efforts in BHP's research portfolio address this need. In addition, it is still unclear whether the conditions of spaceflight environment lead to sleep loss or whether other factors, such as work overload lead to the reduced sleep duration. Future data mining efforts and continued data collection on the ISS will help to further characterize factors contributing to sleep loss. Sleep inertia has not been evaluated during spaceflight. Ground-based studies confirm that it takes two to four hours to achieve optimal performance after waking from a sleep episode. Sleep inertia has been associated with increased accidents and reduced performance in operational environments. Sleep inertia poses considerable risk during spaceflight when emergency situations necessitate that crewmembers wake from sleep and make quick decisions. A recently completed BHP investigation assesses the effects of sleep inertia upon abrupt awakening, with and without hypnotics currently used in spaceflight; results from this investigation will help to inform strategies relative to sleep inertia effects on performance. Circadian desynchrony has been observed during spaceflight. Circadian desynchrony during spaceflight develops due to schedule constraints requiring non-24 operations or 'slam-shifts' and due to insufficient or mis-timed light exposure. In addition, circadian misalignment has been associated with reduced sleep duration and increased medication use. In ground-based studies, circadian desynchrony has been associated with significant performance impairment and increased risk of accidents when operations coincide with the circadian nadir. There is a great deal of information available on how to manage circadian misalignment, however, there are currently no easily collected biomarkers that can be used during spaceflight to determine circadian phase. Current research efforts are addressing this gap. Work overload has been documented during current spaceflight operations. NASA has established work hour guidelines that limit shift duration, however, schedule creep, where duty requirements necessitate working beyond scheduled work hours, has been reported. This observation warrants the documentation of actual work hours in order to improve planning and in order to ensure that astronauts receive adequate down time. In addition to concerns about work overload, ground based evidence suggests that work underload may be a concern during deep space missions, where torpor may develop and physically demanding workload will be exchanged for monitoring of autonomous systems. Given that increased automation is anticipated for exploration vehicles, fatigue effects in the context of such systems needs to be further understood. Performance metrics are needed to evaluate fitness-for-duty during spaceflight. Although ground-based evidence supports the notion that sleep loss, circadian desynchronization and work overload lead to performance impairment, inconsistency in the measures used to evaluate performance during spaceflight make it difficult to evaluate the magnitude of performance impairment during spaceflight. Work is underway to standardize measures of performance evaluation during spaceflight. Once established, such performance indicators need to be correlated with operational performance. Individual differences in sleep need and circadian preference, phase shifting ability and period have been documented in ground-based studies. Individual differences in response to sleep loss and circadian misalignment have also been documented and are presumed to be associated with genetic polymorphisms. No studies have systematically reported individual differences in sleep or circadian-related outcomes during spaceflight. More work is needed in this area in order to identify genetic or phenotypic biomarkers that predict resilience or vulnerability to sleep loss in order to personalize countermeasure strategies and mitigate performance impairment during spaceflight. Two laboratory and field investigations specific to this topic are currently ongoing; additional efforts, including an effort to mine existing biological data from spaceflight relative to sleep and circadian outcomes, are planned. Sex differences in sleep need and circadian period and phase have been reported in ground-based studies. The impact of these sex differences on performance is unclear. Sex differences in sleep need and circadian rhythms have not been systematically studied during spaceflight, presumably due to the small number of women that have flown in space. More research is needed in this area to evaluate whether any of the observed sex differences in physiology lead to altered performance in spaceflight and on the ground.

Flynn-Evans, Erin↗

American WAKE experimeNt (AWAKEN)

The American WAKE experimeNt (AWAKEN) is an international multi-institutional wind energy field campaign to better understand wake losses within operational wind farms. Wake interactions are among the least understood physical interactions in wind plants today, leading to unexpected power and profit losses. For example, Ørsted, the world’s largest offshore wind farm developer, recently announced a downward revision in energy estimates across their energy generation portfolio, primarily caused by underprediction of energy losses from wind farm blockage and wakes. In their announcement, they noted that the standard industry models used for their original energy estimates were inaccurate, and this was likely an industry-wide issue. To help further improve and validate wind plant models across scales from individual turbines as well as interfarm interactions between plants, new observations, such as those planned for AWAKEN, are critical. These model improvements will enable both improved layout and more optimal operation of wind farms with greater power production and improved reliability, ultimately leading to lower wind energy costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Optimizing technology investments: a broad mission model approach

A long-standing problem in NASA is how to allocate scarce technology development resources across advanced technologies in order to best support a large set of future potential missions. Within NASA, two orthogonal paradigms have received attention in recent years: the real-options approach and the broad mission model approach. This paper focuses on the latter.

NASA technology portfolio real-options risk-based ↗

Enhancing Steam Side Heat Transfer via Microdroplet Ejection using Inorganic Coatings

Thermoelectric power generation is a key component of the United States energy portfolio and will continue to be for the foreseeable future. It is therefore imperative that new technologies are developed that minimize the environmental impact of these plants. The objective of this work is to reduce the cooling water demand of Rankine based power cycles by improving the heat transfer performance of steam condensers. This will be accomplished by modifying the surfaces of steam condensers with inorganic nanostructures, thus enabling highly-efficient droplet ejecting condensation heat transfer. Nelumbo's process to create droplet ejecting surfaces has been optimized for aluminum heat exchangers and is actively being commercialized in the HVAC and refrigeration industry. The scope of this project is to refine the process towards materials commonly used in the construction of shell and tube heat exchangers, namely 304 stainless steel and cupronickel alloys, and demonstrate it's benefits at the laboratory scale. The improved heat transfer performance achieved through this surface modification has the potential to reduce cooling water flow rates by up to 39%.

Montes, Nick↗

Direct Air Capture Case Studies: Sorbent System (Rev. 1)

In 2022, the National Energy Technology Laboratory published a techno-economic assessment (TEA) examining the performance and cost of a generic solid sorbent-based direct air capture (DAC) system, “Direct Air Capture Case Studies: Sorbent System”. Revision 1 of this report builds on the previous effort by updating assumptions to reflect the evolving industry and recent developments in the DAC research and development (R&D) portfolio. Revision 1 of the report also expands the case list to examine a variety of sorbent DAC system configurations. The objective of this series is to present transparent and independent TEAs that can serve as a guideline for sorbent DAC TEA development and highlight potential avenues for cost reductions that can inform R&D. The sorbent considered is not reflective of any one material type; rather, it represents an approximate average of reported material performance in the literature. The base cases presented in this series do not represent optimized systems due to the nascence of the technology and lack of publicly available information. The base cases serve as a reference for informative sensitivity analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Review of Water and Climate Change Analysis in Electric Utility Integrated Resource Planning

The purpose of this paper is to examine the extent to which electric utility integrated resource plans (IRPs) evaluate the impact of water constraints on electric generation resource portfolios and the extent to which IRPs consider the impacts of climate change to generation and loads. This white paper reviewed 30 IRPs to determine best practices with respect to analyzing and reporting on potential water-based and climate change risks within the integrated resource planning process. Best practices from electric utility IRPs are identified and additional recommendations and considerations are put forth. In recent years, thermal generating facilities have experienced challenges with water availability: a shortage of cooling water, conditions in which incoming cooling water is too warm for optimal operation, and/or water discharge temperatures exceeding permit limits. S&P Global Market Intelligence recently reported on a study that identified for the year 2030, 98.2 gigawatts (GW) of coal capacity at risk due to water stress. Climate change effects on hydrological cycles may adjust the timing, temperature, and volume of water availability for thermal electric cooling and for hydropower generation, which could further exacerbate the frequency and duration of operational constraints. Climate change can also impact the timing and intensity of electric loads that utilities must serve, most notably for heating and cooling.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The Role of Concentrating Solar Power Toward High Renewable Energy Penetrated Power Systems

Achieving high renewable energy penetrated power systems requires considerable operational flexibility to hedge the variability and uncertainty of variable renewable energy (VRE) generation. Compared with VRE sources, concentrating solar power (CSP) is an emerging controllable renewable generation technique that utilizes solar thermal power to generate electricity. The operational dispatchability of CSP would contribute to the power system transition toward high renewable penetration. In this paper, we explore how the generation portfolio will change toward high renewable energy penetrations, how much cost is involved, and what role CSP will play in realizing a high renewable energy penetrated power system. This study relies on a stochastic two-stage generation and transmission expansion planning model with CSP plants. The model captures the uncertainty and variability of renewable generation and the flexibility limits of thermal plants. With the target of achieving a renewable-dominated minimum-cost system with an expected renewable energy penetration level, the investments of both generation and transmission facilities are optimized. A case study on IEEE test systems with renewable technology cost data in 2050 is performed to analyze the value of CSP toward high renewable energy penetrated power systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Product Lifecycle Management and the Quest for Sustainable Space Exploration Solutions

Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) is an outcome of lean thinking to eliminate waste and increase productivity. PLM is inextricably tied to the systems engineering business philosophy, coupled with a methodology by which personnel, processes and practices, and information technology combine to form an architecture platform for product design, development, manufacturing, operations, and decommissioning. In this model, which is being implemented by the Engineering Directorate at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Marshall Space Flight Center, total lifecycle costs are important variables for critical decisionmaking. With the ultimate goal to deliver quality products that meet or exceed requirements on time and within budget, PLM is a powerful tool to shape everything from engineering trade studies and testing goals, to integrated vehicle operations and retirement scenarios. This paper will demonstrate how the Engineering Directorate is implementing PLM as part of an overall strategy to deliver safe, reliable, and affordable space exploration solutions. It has been 30 years since the United States fielded the Space Shuttle. The next generation space transportation system requires a paradigm shift such that digital tools and knowledge management, which are central elements of PLM, are used consistently to maximum effect. The outcome is a better use of scarce resources, along with more focus on stakeholder and customer requirements, as a new portfolio of enabling tools becomes second nature to the workforce. This paper will use the design and manufacturing processes, which have transitioned to digital-based activities, to show how PLM supports the comprehensive systems engineering and integration function. It also will go through a launch countdown scenario where an anomaly is detected to show how the virtual vehicle created from paperless processes will help solve technical challenges and improve the likelihood of launching on schedule, with less hands-on labor needed for processing and troubleshooting. Sustainable space exploration solutions demand that all lifecycle phases be optimized. Adopting PLM, which has been used by the automotive industry for many years, for aerospace applications provides a foundation for strong, disciplined systems engineering and accountable return on investment by making lifecycle considerations variables in an iterative decision-making process. This paper combines the perspectives of the founding father of PLM, along with the experience of Engineering leaders who are implementing these processes and practices real-time. As the nation moves from an industrial-based society to one where information is a valued commodity, future NASA programs and projects will benefit from the experience being gained today for the exploration missions of tomorrow.

Caruso, Pamela W.↗

A near-term to net zero alternative to the social cost of carbon for setting carbon prices

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is commonly described and used as the optimal CO 2 price. However, the wide range of SCC estimates provides limited practical assistance to policymakers setting specific CO 2 prices. In this study we describe an alternate near-term to net zero (NT2NZ) approach, estimating CO 2 prices needed in the near term for consistency with a net-zero CO 2 emissions target. This approach dovetails with the emissions-target-focused approach that frames climate policy discussions around the world, avoids uncertainties in estimates of climate damages and long-term decarbonization costs, offers transparency about sensitivities and enables the consideration of CO 2 prices alongside a portfolio of policies. We estimate illustrative NT2NZ CO 2 prices for the United States; for a 2050 net-zero CO 2 emission target, prices are US $ \$34$ to US $ \$64$ per metric ton in 2025 and US $ \$77$ to US $ \$124$ in 2030. These results are most influenced by assumptions about complementary policies and oil prices.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗