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At least 217 records · Page 12

Numerical simulation of magnetohydrodynamic shock propagation in the corona

Recent developments in the field of numerical simulation models for the study of shock wave propagation in the corona are presented. These models are based on gasdynamic (GD) and ideal (that is, dissipationless, except at shocks) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) theories. The characteristics and physical interpretations of the results derived from these models are discussed in some detail. The most significant physical results obtained to date are provided by the two-dimensional non-planar, time-dependent, MHD numerical simulation model. In this model, the non-linear interaction among the three essential MHD waves, i.e., fast-, slow-, and Alfven waves are demonstrated. Finally, the physical relevance of these numerical simulation models in relation to observed solar activity is presented.

Wu, S. T.↗

Evolution on large-scale plasma structures in comets: Kinematics and physics

The disconnection event (DE) consists of the periodic loss of a comet's entire plasma tail and the growth of a new one. This spectacular phenomenon is not understood. The strategy was to assemble a data base of specific events studied in detail, determine the solar wind conditions responsible for DEs, and develop a consistent physical model. Analysis is complete for the sequence of DEs that took place during 13 to 18 April 1986. The first DE correlates well with a sector boundary crossing for the comet and a group of DEs that occurred approximately a day later could have produced by polarity reversals seen in the IMP-8 data. Thus, these DEs are consistent with the frontside, magnetic reconnection mechanism.

Brandt, John C.↗

Comparison of the USU ionospheric model with the UCL-Sheffield coupled thermospheric-ionospheric model

Several physical models of the high-latitude ionosphere have been developed that describe the time-dependent evolution of the E- and F-region plasma density. The models require a variety of inputs, including solar EUV fluxes, magnetospheric convection, auroral precipitation, and neutral atmosphere. Of specific relevance to this study is how the neutral atmosphere is incorporated into the ionospheric models. For the USU ionospheric model, the neutral atmosphere is the MSIS 1986 empirical model, while for the UCL-Sheffield coupled thermospheric-ionospheric model the neutral atmosphere is computed simultaneously with the ionosphere. Both models were run for similar solar and magnetospheric conditions (solar maximum, moderate geomagnetic activity, and winter solstice). Solar maximum conditions ensured a strong coupling between the ionosphere and thermosphere, which provided the possibility of a large ionospheric difference between the two physical models. This was further enhanced by choosing winter conditions so that the densities were not dominated by sunlight. The comparison of the two models indicated that both models predict the same morphological features with similar ionospheric densities, generally within about 30 percent.

Sojka, J. J.↗

NAIRAS Model Updates and Improvements to the Prediction of the Ionizing Radiation Environment from the Earth's Surface to Geospace

- NAIRAS Model Description - Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing RAdiation System (NAIRAS) Model - Running in real-time on LaRC computer cluster since 2011, results hosted on Space Environment Technologies server/website - Running in real-time at CCMC since 2020 - Key Model Features - Global ionizing radiation environment model - Physics-based HZETRN (High Charge (Z) and Energy TRaNsport) code - Real-time inclusion of solar energetic particle (SEP) radiation - Real-time solar-magnetospheric effects on radiation (cutoff model by Kress et al. [2004, 2010]) - New/Current Model Development - Improved SEP dose nowcast and forecast - Extend to low-Earth orbit (LEO) environment - Single-Event Effects (SEE) radiation risk assessment quantities - Run-on-Request (RoR) @ CCMC

Christopher J. Mertens↗

Physics of the Inner Heliosphere 1-10 Rs: Plasma Diagnostics and Models

While the mechanisms responsible for the solar corona and the high-speed solar wind streams are still unknown, model computations offer means of predicting the properties of such mechanisms in light of the empirical constraints currently available. Modeling and data analysis efforts were aimed at understanding the plasma properties of the acceleration of the solar wind, its filamentary nature, and the conditions needed to account for a rapidly accelerating solar wind, reaching its terminal speed within 10 R(sub s). A sequence of models ranging from steady one-fluid descriptions of the solar wind to multi-fluid time-dependent models were developed. Plasma diagnostics evolved from the analysis of data acquired from Skylab to SOHO, and complemented by ground-based observations.

Habbal, Shadia R.↗

Prediction modeling of physiological responses and human performance in the heat with application to space operations

This institute has developed a comprehensive USARIEM heat strain model for predicting physiological responses and soldier performance in the heat which has been programmed for use by hand-held calculators, personal computers, and incorporated into the development of a heat strain decision aid. This model deals directly with five major inputs: the clothing worn, the physical work intensity, the state of heat acclimation, the ambient environment (air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and solar load), and the accepted heat casualty level. In addition to predicting rectal temperature, heart rate, and sweat loss given the above inputs, our model predicts the expected physical work/rest cycle, the maximum safe physical work time, the estimated recovery time from maximal physical work, and the drinking water requirements associated with each of these situations. This model provides heat injury risk management guidance based on thermal strain predictions from the user specified environmental conditions, soldier characteristics, clothing worn, and the physical work intensity. If heat transfer values for space operations' clothing are known, NASA can use this prediction model to help avoid undue heat strain in astronauts during space flight.

Pandolf, Kent B.↗

Observations, Modeling, and Predictions of Solar Activity From the Deep Interior to the Corona

Solar activity is a manifestation of magnetic self-organization processes that involve complex dynamical coupling of various layers of the Sun acting over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Synergy of observational, theoretical, and modeling efforts is key to understanding solar activity variation, dynamics, and evolution and to developing reliable physics-based forecasts of long-term solar cycles and short-term activity manifestations, “seasons of solar activity”, such as periods of enhanced flaring and CME activity. The session welcomes observers, modelers, and theoreticians to share their results and ideas and to discuss current challenges, development of emerging fields (such as data assimilation), and the analysis of historical and modern observational data using theoretical modeling, interpretations, and predictions.

Deep Interior↗

Solar radiation at the Earth's surface: Its calculation and inference from satellite imagery

Physical and empirical models for calculation of insolation on a horizontal surface are described. Calculation of the spectral components of insolation and the calculation of the integrated values using wavelength-averaged values, ignoring aerosol effects, are discussed. Empirical models for determining insolation from meteorological data under clear and cloudy skies are described. The influence of hourly and daily global solar radiation from GOES satellite images is illustrated. Data acquisition methods for the Great Plains experiment, the determination of cloud free brightness levels, and determination of cloud parameters and target brightness are considered. The use of two and seven satellite images per day resulted in insolation determinations having a standard error of less then 10% of the mean. Use of only one image per day resulted in a standard error of about 20% of the mean.

Bartman, F. L.↗

Techno-economic analysis of renewable energy generation at the South Pole

Transitioning from fossil-fuel power generation to renewable energy generation and energy storage in remote locations has the potential to reduce both carbon emissions and cost. Here, this study presents a techno-economic analysis for implementation of a hybrid renewable energy system at the South Pole in Antarctica, which currently hosts several high-energy physics experiments with nontrivial power needs. A tailored model of resource availability and economics for solar photovoltaics, wind turbine generators, lithium-ion energy storage, and long-duration energy storage at this site is explored in different combinations with and without existing diesel energy generation. The Renewable Energy Integration and Optimization (REopt) platform is used to determine the optimal system component sizing and the associated system economics and environmental benefit. We find that the least-cost system includes all three energy generation sources and lithium-ion energy storage. For an example steady-state load of 170 kW, this hybrid system includes 180 kW-DC of photovoltaic panels, 570 kW of wind turbines, and a 3.4 MWh lithium-ion battery energy storage system. This system reduces diesel consumption by 95% compared to an all -diesel configuration, resulting in approximately 1200 metric tons of carbon footprint avoided annually. Over the course of a 15-year analysis period the reduced diesel usage leads to a net savings of 57 million United States dollars, with a time to payback of approximately two years. All the scenarios modeled show that the transition to renewables is highly cost effective under the unique economics and constraints of this extremely remote site.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Dynamics of the Transition Corona

Magnetic reconnection between the open and closed magnetic fields in the corona is believed to play a crucial role in the corona/heliosphere coupling. At large scale, the exchange of open/closed connectivity is expected to occur in pseudo-streamer (PS) structures. However, there is neither clear observational evidence of how such coupling occurs in PSs, nor evidence for how the magnetic reconnection evolves. Using a newly developed technique, we enhance the off-limb magnetic fine structures observed with the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly and identify a PS-like feature located close to the northern coronal hole. We first identify that the magnetic topology associated with the observation is a PS, null-point (NP) related topology bounded by the open field. By comparing the magnetic field configuration with the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) emission regions, we determined that most of the magnetic flux associated with plasma emission are small loops below the PS basic NP and open field bounding the PS topology. In order to interpret the evolution of the PS, we referred to a three-dimensional MHD interchange reconnection modeling the exchange of connectivity between small closed loops and the open field. The observed PS fine structures follow the dynamics of the magnetic field before and after reconnecting at the NP obtained by the interchange model. Moreover, the pattern of the EUV plasma emission is the same as the shape of the expected plasma emission location derived from the simulation. These morphological and dynamical similarities between the PS observations and the results from the simulation strongly suggest that the evolution of the PS, and in particular the opening/closing of the field, occurs via interchange/slipping reconnection at the basic NP of the PS. Besides identifying the mechanism at work in the large-scale coupling between the open and closed fields, our results highlight that interchange reconnection in PSs is a gradual physical process that differs from the impulsive reconnection of the solar-jet model.

magnetic fields↗

Implementation of Interactive Sea Ice Radiative Transfer into the GISS GCM and Its Impact on Sea Ice Simulation

To improve the representation of solar radiation in sea ice in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model (ModelE), we have implemented an advanced radiative transfer (RT) scheme to interactively calculate the surface albedo and transmittance of the ice layer and the solar absorption within. The ice physical properties (temperature, salinity, and density), which are simulated by the thermodynamic module in ModelE, are directly used as the input of the RT scheme to determine the inherent optical properties (IOPs) of brine pockets and air bubbles in the ice layers. This provides a more sophisticated, accurate, and complete treatment of sea ice RT for ModelE. The sea ice RT model is also validated with measured spectral albedo and transmittance for different ice types. Compared with ModelE simulations with current radiative parameterization for sea ice, the new RT implementation will slightly increase the ice surface albedo in the summer in the Arctic and greatly increase the radiative transmittance. Consequently, the ice surface melting is reduced and the base melting is increased but the difference in the simulated ice area is small. The effect of this new RT implementation on the Antarctic ice is negligible. The observed decrease in Arctic sea ice extent is well captured by the ModelE simulation.

Sea ice↗

Technical, economic, and load-following capabilities assessment of grid-connected geothermal and geothermal-solar hybrid systems

The technical and economic performance as well as the load-following capabilities of grid-connected geothermal hybrid systems were assessed in this work. The analyzed geothermal hybrid configuration is composed of a binary geothermal plant integrated with a concentrating solar-thermal system and underground thermal energy storage (UTES) through a primary heat exchanger. Physics-based models for the hybrid system for plant generation capacities of 1, 25, and 50 MW were developed from validated models for each subsystem. Also, an economic model was developed that accounts for different hybrid system capabilities, solar field sizes, and thermal storage duration. The advantage of the geothermal hybrid system was assessed by comparing the performance with the baseline benchmark geothermal plant with a similar configuration and generation capacity. It was found that hybridizing geothermal plants with concentrating solar and thermal energy storage not only improves the thermal efficiency by up to 8 percentage points when additional heat from the solar-UTES loop rises the evaporator temperatures from 70 to 125 °C, but also enhances the load-following capability for the geothermal plant, which can meet a typical residential load profile with a power rate of change 0.25 kW/s with an absolute error under 13 kW for a 1 MW plant. Other benefits of hybridization include resource preservation and a potential LCOE reduction of up to 56% for a 50 MW geothermal hybrid plant having a 50% solar share, a 1.4 solar multiple, and 24-h storage capacity. The results presented in this work demonstrate that hybridizing geothermal systems transforms them into a flexible and cost-effective solution for addressing the dynamic requirements of modern electric grids.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Data-Driven Model for Photovoltaic Generation: Comparison with Physical Models Using a Microgrid in Puerto Rico

Photovoltaic (PV) generation is a critical component of microgrids, but its accurate modeling is challenging due to the complex and dynamic interactions between solar irradiance, temperature, and PV system installation. This paper develops a multilayer perceptron (MLP) model that inputs solar irradiance and temperature to estimate the PV generation, and it compares the proposed data-driven model’s performance to two well-known physical models: the single-diode model and the inverter model. The results demonstrate that all the models can reach high levels of accuracy. However, the MLP model outperforms the physical models on average by 4.5 to 6.6 percent in R squared scores and 220 to 290 Watts in RMSE scores, and it does not require physical system parameters. Moreover, the data-driven model can overcome the limitations of the lack of real-time PV generation data.

R pesante colón, Marcos↗

Photospheric subrotations, differential rotation and zonal wind bands - A reverse pirouette

It is noted that on the sun the core is assumed to be rotating with a period of about 12 days while the overlying 'mantle' convection zone has a solid body component of about 27 days. It is proposed that this phenomenon could simply be understood as a 'reverse pirouette'. It is noted that while previously proposed models provide solutions of valid equations and computer analyses, they lack a simple physical picture to explain the phenomenon. In the model proposed here, the solar oblateness is conventionally providing added heat input at the poles. The result is the large scale transport of material toward the equator, causing subrotation. The model is thus seen as facilitating an understanding of the formation of a slowly rotating convection zone above the more rapidly rotating core. The latitudinal photospheric differential rotation is interpreted as a 'second order' effect associated with the horizontal transport of momentum.

Schatten, K. H.↗

The solar-flare induced earth's environment

A composite numerical simulation model developed from a series of MHD models was used to compute the solar-flare-generated disturbances of physical parameters, such as density, temperature, velocity, and magnetic field from the solar surface (i.e., the photospheric level) to the earth's environment. It is shown that the disturbed earth's environment at high latitudes can be approximated by starting with the knowledge of the occurrence and the strength of a solar flare, then simulating the evolutionary consequences of the solar disturbance through interplanetary space up to and through the magnetosphere.

Wu, S. T.↗

Model Atmospheres and Spectra for Extrasolar Giant Planets

In the past few years much new observational data has become available for brown dwarfs and extra solar planets. Not only are new objects being discovered but the availability of higher resolution spectra is improving. This allows a better comparison between the models and the available data, and places new constraints on the models which now have to be made more physically realistic in order to better interpret the observations. Under this grant, an array of new opacities were calculated and successfully applied to a variety of physical situations that were used as input to model available observations of brown dwarfs and extra solar giant planets.

Freedman, Richard S.↗

Future mission studies: Forecasting solar flux directly from its chaotic time series

The mathematical structure of the programs written to construct a nonlinear predictive model to forecast solar flux directly from its time series without reference to any underlying solar physics is presented. This method and the programs are written so that one could apply the same technique to forecast other chaotic time series, such as geomagnetic data, attitude and orbit data, and even financial indexes and stock market data. Perhaps the most important application of this technique to flight dynamics is to model Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) output of residues between observed position of spacecraft and calculated position with no drag (drag flag = off). This would result in a new model of drag working directly from observed data.

Ashrafi, S.↗