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DOE OSTI2022

Discovery of Innovative Polymers for Next-Generation Gas-Separation Membranes using Interpretable Machine Learning

Polymer membranes perform innumerable separations with far-reaching environmental implications. Despite decades of research on membrane technologies, design of new membrane materials remains a largely Edisonian process. To address this shortcoming, we demonstrate a generalizable, accurate machine-learning (ML) implementation for the discovery of innovative polymers with ideal separation performance. Specifically, multitask ML models are trained on available experimental data to link polymer chemistry to gas permeabilities of He, H2, O2, N2, CO2, and CH4. Here, we interpret the ML models and extract chemical heuristics for membrane design, through Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis. We then screen over nine million hypothetical polymers through our models and identify thousands of candidates that lie well above current performance upper bounds. Notably, we discover hundreds of never-before-seen ultrapermeable polymer membranes with O2 and CO2 permeability greater than 104 and 105 Barrer, respectively. These hypothetical polymers are capable of overcoming undesirable trade-off relationship between permeability and selectivity, thus significantly expanding the currently limited library of polymer membranes for highly efficient gas separations. High-fidelity molecular dynamics simulations confirm the ML-predicted gas permeabilities of the promising candidates, which suggests that many can be translated to reality.

Yang, Jason↗

DOE OSTI2021

Subsurface Characterization and Machine Learning Predictions at Brady Hot Springs: Preprint

Subsurface data analysis, reservoir modeling, and machine learning (ML) techniques have been applied to the Brady Hot Springs (BHS) geothermal field in Nevada, USA to further characterize the subsurface and assist with optimizing reservoir management. Hundreds of reservoir simulations have been conducted in TETRAD-G and CMG STARS to explore different injection and production fluid flow rates and allocations and to develop a training data set for ML. This process included simulating the historical injection and production since 1979 and prediction of future performance through 2040. ML networks were created and trained using TensorFlow based on multilayer perceptron (MLP), long short-term memory (LSTM), and convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures. These networks took as input selected flow rates, injection temperatures, and historical field operation data and produced estimates of future production temperatures. This approach was first successfully tested on a simplified single fracture doublet system, followed by the application to the BHS reservoir. Using an initial BHS dataset with 37 simulated scenarios, the trained and validated network predicted the production temperature for 6 production wells with the mean absolute percentage error of less than 8%. In a complementary analysis effort, the principal component analysis applied to 13 BHS geological parameters revealed that vertical fracture permeability shows the strongest correlation with fault density and fault intersection density. A new BHS reservoir model was developed considering the fault intersection density as proxy for permeability. This new reservoir model helps to explore under-exploited zones in the reservoir. A data gathering plan to obtain additional subsurface data was developed; it includes temperature surveying for three idle injection wells, at which the reservoir simulations indicate high bottom-hole temperatures. The collected data assist with calibrating the reservoir model and may lead to converting these wells to producers to access under-exploited zones in the reservoir. Data gathering activities are planned for the first quarter of 2021.

40 EE - Geothermal Technologies Office (EE-4G)↗

DOE OSTI2021

A comprehensive review of proppant embedment in shale reservoirs: Experimentation, modeling and future prospects

This paper provides a comprehensive review on the application of proppants to maintain fracture permeability over the lifetime of a well based on published observations from experiments and modeling. The review identifies and describes important processes occurring during proppant embedment, during hydraulic fracturing, laboratory testing of fracture conductivity, proppant embedment and modeling of proppant embedment. Lastly, this paper identifies the challenges and knowledge gaps that also provide future avenues of research and opportunities for collaborative technological development which requires an interdisciplinary approach of science, engineering in academia, government, and private sector.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Relationship between microporous structure and light gas transport through glassy polymeric membranes revealed by molecular simulations

Microporous glassy polymers are attractive materials for gas separation membranes, due to their high permeability and tailorable selectivity, provided physical aging can be delayed. The archetypal microporous glassy polymer, PTMSP, can be blended with a hyper-crosslinked isatin–triptycene porous polymer network (PPN) to delay physical aging. However, while PPN is effective at reducing physical aging, it also affects the permeability of light gases through PTMSP. Molecular dynamics simulations were used here to shed fundamental light on the mechanisms responsible for these effects. Atomistic models are developed that satisfactorily reproduce experimental observations such as matrix density and cavity size distributions for neat PTMSP as well as for PTMSP–PPN blends. Analysis of the simulation results suggests that physical aging is delayed because the PPN inclusions slow down PTMSP relaxation while reducing the connectivity between free volume pockets. To understand how PPN inclusions affect light gas permeability, the atomistic models developed are used to probe CO 2 and CH 4 diffusion and sorption. These simulations are conducted for PTMSP matrices exhibiting varying density, towards reproducing experimental permeability data. Interrogating the simulation trajectories, it is discovered that while CH 4 travels preferentially through the free volume cavities, CO 2 preferentially interacts with the available surfaces, especially in the presence of PPN. These differences help interpret experimental observations. The transport of C 2 H 6 and H 2 S through PTMSP matrices was also investigated. These gases, and in particular H 2 S, were found to absorb within PTMSP, yielding very low diffusion coefficients. The ability to predict differences in diffusion pathways for various natural gas components unveils the possibility of engineering membranes to control permeability and selectivity towards large-scale applications.

Bao Le, Tran Thi [Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (U↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying Groundwater Response and Uncertainty in Beaver‐Influenced Mountainous Floodplains Using Machine Learning‐Based Model Calibration

Abstract Beavers ( Castor canadensis ) alter river corridor hydrology by creating ponds and inundating floodplains, and thereby improving surface water storage. However, the impact of inundation on groundwater, particularly in mountainous alluvial floodplains with permeable gravel/cobble layers overlain by a soil layer, remains uncertain. Numerical modeling across various floodplain structures considers topographic and sediment complexity and multidirectional flow, linking inundation to groundwater response. This study develops a model‐data integration workflow to address uncertainty in groundwater response to beaver‐induced inundations in a mountainous alluvial floodplain in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Uncertain factors include seasonal hydrologic dynamics, hydraulic conductivities, floodplain structures, and meteorological forcings. We employed an ensemble of groundwater models, based on geophysical and hydrologic data, with machine learning‐based calibration using a neural density estimator. This allowed us to quantify the vertical flux from the soil layer to the permeable gravel bed, the down‐valley underflow within the gravel bed, and their ratios. Results show a significant increase in the vertical flux relative to down‐valley underflow, from 2 during dry pond periods to 20 during wet periods, serving as an analogy for conditions without and with beaver ponds. The study highlights the influence of floodplain structure on groundwater storage, water balance, and water quality impacted by beaver ponds. A thick gravel bed layer, with a large down‐valley underflow, minimizes the effect of beaver‐induced inundation on water quality. We emphasize the need for field‐scale measurements of floodplain structure and improved characterization of evapotranspiration changes to reduce uncertainty in groundwater response. Plain Language Summary Beavers change the flow of water in river corridors by creating ponds, expanding wetlands, and flooding floodplains. This increases surface water area, promotes plant growth, and enhances biodiversity. However, the impact of this flooding on groundwater flow is not well understood, especially in mountainous areas with gravel layers where water moves easily beneath soil. In this study, we used numerical modeling to investigate how beaver ponds influence groundwater in a mountainous floodplain of the Upper Colorado River Basin. We adapted a machine learning method to validate our numerical models using multiple field data sets. Our findings show that beaver ponds significantly increase vertical water flow from the soil to the gravel during wet periods, compared to when the ponds are fully drained. The study also highlights the importance of floodplain structure in controlling both water flow in gravel layers along the river direction and vertical flow from the soil to the gravel with the presence of beavers. To reduce uncertainty in groundwater response, we emphasize the need for more field‐scale measurements of floodplain structure, hydraulic properties, and evapotranspiration changes. Key Points Floodplain structures and hydraulic conductivities are important for groundwater response with beaver ponds in mountainous floodplains Large down‐valley underflow in permeability‐stratified floodplains reduces beaver‐induced impacts on groundwater storage and water quality Machine learning‐based model calibration methods are effective for estimating posterior distributions of groundwater model parameters

Wang, Lijing↗

DOE OSTI2022

Wellbore cement fracture permeability as a function of confining stress and pore pressure

Cemented annulus fractures are a major leakage path in a wellbore system, and their permeability plays an important role in the behavior of fluid flow through a leaky wellbore. The permeability of these fractures is affected by changing conditions including the external stresses acting on the fracture and the fluid pressure within the fracture. Laboratory gas flow experiments were conducted in a triaxial cell to evaluate the permeability of a wellbore cement fracture under a wide range of confining stress and pore pressure conditions. For the first time, an effective stress law that considers the simultaneous effect of confining stress and pore pressure was defined for the wellbore cement fracture permeability. Here the results showed that the effective stress coefficient (λ) for permeability increased linearly with the Terzaghi effective stress ( -p) with an average of λ = 1 in the range of applied pressures. The relationship between the effective stress and fracture permeability was examined using two physical-based models widely used for rock fractures. The results from the experimental work were incorporated into numerical simulations to estimate the impact of effective stress on the interpreted hydraulic aperture and leakage behavior through a fractured annular cement. Accounting for effective stress-dependent permeability through the wellbore length significantly increased the leakage rate at the wellhead compared with the assumption of a constant cemented annulus permeability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Techno-economic analysis of carbon dioxide capture from low concentration sources using membranes

Rising carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) levels in the atmosphere lead to global warming, causing climate change. As such, carbon capture has become necessary to slow the increase and reduce CO 2 levels in the atmosphere. Point source emissions have a wide range of CO 2 concentrations, but emissions below 3% CO 2 have mostly been ignored because Carbon capture from these sources has been viewed as costly and economically unsustainable. Membrane technologies are considered the most viable solution by virtue of more energy-efficient operation. Our group at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has developed poly[bis((2-methoxyethoxy)ethoxy)phosphazene] (MEEP)-based carbon dioxide selective membranes with CO 2 /N 2 selectivity greater than 40 and CO 2 permeability greater than 450 Barrer. To understand the economics of carbon capture, a spreadsheet-based techno-economic analysis (TEA) model was developed to consider multiple parameters, including selectivity and permeability of the membranes, performance conditions such as the number of stages, module material, electricity price, membrane price, and capital financing. The cost of carbon capture in US $\$$/metric ton was calculated at various purities and compared with other membrane processes, cryogenic capture, solvent-based capture, and pressure swing adsorption-based capture. It was determined that a MEEP-based three-stage process had a capture cost of US $\$$ 50.1/metric ton for 99.8% purity CO 2 from a 1% CO 2 feed source in nitrogen (N 2 ). In conclusion, the capture cost using the best performing Pebax-based membrane was 464% higher, cryogenic capture was 60%–140% higher, pressure swing adsorption was 55%–165% higher, and chemical absorption was -10%–110% higher than MEEP-based membrane capture, respectively.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

BMC Caller: a webtool to identify and analyze bacterial microcompartment types in sequence data

Bacterial microcompartments (BMCs) are protein-based organelles found across the bacterial tree of life. They consist of a shell, made of proteins that oligomerize into hexagonally and pentagonally shaped building blocks, that surrounds enzymes constituting a segment of a metabolic pathway. The proteins of the shell are unique to BMCs. They also provide selective permeability; this selectivity is dictated by the requirements of their cargo enzymes. We have recently surveyed the wealth of different BMC types and their occurrence in all available genome sequence data by analyzing and categorizing their components found in chromosomal loci using HMM (Hidden Markov Model) protein profiles. To make this a “do-it yourself” analysis for the public we have devised a webserver, BMC Caller (https://bmc-caller.prl.msu.edu), that compares user input sequences to our HMM profiles, creates a BMC locus visualization, and defines the functional type of BMC, if known. Shell proteins in the input sequence data are also classified according to our function-agnostic naming system and there are links to similar proteins in our database as well as an external link to a structure prediction website to easily generate structural models of the shell proteins, which facilitates understanding permeability properties of the shell. Additionally, the BMC Caller website contains a wealth of information on previously analyzed BMC loci with links to detailed data for each BMC protein and phylogenetic information on the BMC shell proteins. Our tools greatly facilitate BMC type identification to provide the user information about the associated organism’s metabolism and enable discovery of new BMC types by providing a reference database of all currently known examples.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Review: Pre-Darcy flows in low-permeability porous media

The widely used Darcy’s law specifies a linear relation between the Darcy velocity of fluid flow and the pressure gradient that drives the flow. However, studies have shown that Darcy velocity can exhibit a nonlinear dependence on the pressure gradient in low-permeability porous media such as clay and shale when the pressure gradient is adequately low. This phenomenon is referred to as low-velocity non-Darcian flow or pre-Darcy flow. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the theories, experimental data, and modeling methods for pre-Darcy flow in low-permeability porous media. The review begins by outlining the fundamental mechanisms underlying pre-Darcy flow that regulate the unique characteristics such as nonlinear dependence of the Darcy velocity on the pressure gradient and its relevance to fluid–rock interactions. The review then proceeds to present a thorough compilation of experimental investigations performed in various low-permeability geomaterials including tight sandstones, shales, and clays. Next, empirical and theoretical models and simulation methods that have been developed to fit and interpret experimental data are reviewed. Finally, the review underscores the challenges encountered in conducting and interpreting pre-Darcy flow experiments and suggests future research directions. By analyzing previous experimental investigations, this review aims to offer a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners seeking to enhance their understanding of fluid dynamics in low-permeability geomaterials. This provides insights into the application of pre-Darcy flow in numerous natural and engineered processes such as shale oil and gas recovery, contaminant transport in low-permeability aquifers, and geological disposal of nuclear waste.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Facilitating Screening of MOFs for Mixed Matrix Membranes Using Machine Learning and the Maxwell Model

Metal organic framework (MOF)-based mixedmatrix membranes (MMMs), which embed MOF particles in polymer matrices, combine the advantages of polymeric and inorganic membranes. Multiple previous studies have used the Maxwell model together with molecular simulations and machine learning (ML) to predict the performance of MOF/polymer MMMs. However, the assumption of rigid MOF frameworks in molecular simulations limited the accuracy of the data used in the predictions, particularly in predicting molecular diffusivities. We developed a novel workflow integrating ML models with consideration of MOF flexibility to predict the permeability and selectivity of 131,722 MMMs for CO 2 /CH 4 , O 2 /N 2 and He/H 2 separations. The full range of achievable MMM performance within the Maxwell model was analyzed, and several promising MOFs were identified using this workflow. This approach offers an efficient tool for screening any polymer and MOF combination in gas separation applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Harnessing Uncertainty through Functional Data Analysis in Gas Breakthrough Data

Detecting subsurface explosions from radionuclide gas migration through rock fractures is an effective way to identify nuclear activity. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has developed simulation methods, based on data from the 1962 Hardhat underground nuclear test, to predict gas breakthrough times at the surface. However, these methods rely on an imperfect understanding of the relationship between rock damage and fracture permeability. Our clinic project studies methods for predicting breakthrough curves that characterize total mass produced as a function of time, as well as quantifying the uncertainty associated with these predictions. The model that is currently employed to relate damage to permeability uses an empirically motivated power-law expression, with a range of parameter values that are compatible with the experimental Hardhat data. We develop emulators, built from functional data analysis techniques and trained on simulation data, that rapidly predict the gas breakthrough curve given a damage field and given the parameter values of the power-law equation. Using Bayesian regression, we address the problem of uncertainty quantification in our emulators. Finally, in order to test the robustness of the model, we further validate it on a damage field representing different physical conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Irreversible thermodynamics of curved lipid membranes. II. Permeability and osmosis

We present a theory that combines the framework of irreversible thermodynamics with modified integral theorems to model arbitrarily curved and deforming membranes immersed in bulk fluid solutions. We study the coupling between the mechanics and permeability of a viscous and elastically bendable membrane, and a multicomponent bulk fluid solution. An equation for the internal entropy production for irreversibilities at the membrane is derived, determining the generalized thermodynamic forces and fluxes, from which we identify the deviatoric stress as a novel driving force for permeability. A complete set of equations of motion, constitutive laws, and boundary conditions to model the lipid membrane and bulk fluid system are provided.

Alkadri, Ahmad M↗

DOE OSTI2020

Polymer genome–based prediction of gas permeabilities in polymers

Abstract Predicting gas permeabilities of polymers a priori is a long-standing challenge within the membrane research community that has important applications for membrane process design and ultimately widespread adoption of membrane technology. From early attempts based on free volume and cohesive energy to more recent group contribution methods, the ability to predict membrane permeability has improved in terms of accuracy. However, these models usually stay “within the paper”, i.e. limited model details are provided to the wider community such that adoption of these predictive platforms is limited. In this work, we combined an advanced polymer chemical structure fingerprinting method with a large experimental database of gas permeabilities to provide unprecedented prediction precision over a large range of polymer classes. No prior knowledge of the polymer is needed for the prediction other than the repeating unit chemical formula. In addition, we have incorporated this model into the existing Polymer Genome project to make it open to the membrane research community.

Polymer Science↗

DOE OSTI2022

Time-lapse seismic data inversion for estimating reservoir parameters using deep learning

Geologic carbon sequestration involves the injection of captured carbon dioxide ([Formula: see text]) into subsurface formations for long-term storage. The movement and fate of the injected [Formula: see text] plume is of great concern to regulators because monitoring helps to identify potential leakage zones and determines the possibility of safe long-term storage. To address this concern, we design a deep-learning framework for [Formula: see text] saturation monitoring to determine the geologic controls on the storage of the injected [Formula: see text]. We use different combinations of porosities and permeabilities for a given reservoir to generate saturation and velocity models. We train the deep-learning model with a few time-lapse seismic images and their corresponding changes in saturation values for a particular [Formula: see text] injection site. The deep-learning model learns the mapping from the change in the time-lapse seismic response to the change in [Formula: see text] saturation during the training phase. We then apply the trained model to data sets comprising different time-lapse seismic image slices (corresponding to different time instances) generated using different porosity and permeability distributions that are not part of the training to estimate the [Formula: see text] saturation values along with the plume extent. Our algorithm provides a deep-learning assisted framework for the direct estimation of [Formula: see text] saturation values and plume migration in heterogeneous formations using the time-lapse seismic data. Our method improves the efficiency of time-lapse inversion by streamlining the large number of intermediate steps in the conventional time-lapse inversion workflow. This method also helps to incorporate the geologic uncertainty for a given reservoir by accounting for the statistical distribution of porosity and permeability during the training phase. Tests on different examples verify the effectiveness of our approach.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Pressure-Dependent Interfacial Tension and Contact Angle on Capillary Heterogeneity Trapping of CO2 in Storage Aquifers

Summary Carbon dioxide (CO2) capillary trapping increases the total amount of CO2 that can be effectively immobilized in storage aquifers. This trapping, manifesting itself as accumulated CO2 columns at a continuum scale, is because of capillary threshold effects that occur below low-permeability barriers. Considering that capillary pressure is dictated by heterogeneous pore throat size, the trapped CO2 column height and associated CO2 saturation will vary spatially within a storage aquifer. This variation will be influenced by two pressure-dependent interfacial parameters—CO2/brine interfacial tension (IFT) and CO2/brine/rock contact angle. Our objective is to understand how the pressure dependence of these two parameters affects the heterogeneity of capillary trapped CO2 at a continuum scale. Our conceptual model is a 1D two-zone system with the upper zone being a flow barrier (low permeability) and the lower zone being a flow path (high permeability). The inputs to this model include microfacies-dependent capillary pressure vs. saturation curves and permeability values. The input capillary pressure curves were collected in the literature that represents carbonate microfacies (e.g., dolograinstone) in a prevalent formation in the Permian Basin. We then used the Leverett j-function to scale the capillary pressure curve for the two zones that are assigned with the same or different microfacies. During scaling, we considered the influence of pressure on both the IFT and contact angle of CO2/brine/dolomite systems. We varied the zone permeability contrast ratio from 2 to 50. We then assumed capillary gravity equilibriums and calculated the CO2 saturation buildup corresponding to various trapped CO2 column heights. The CO2 saturation buildup is defined as the CO2 saturation in the lower layer minus that in the upper one. We found that the saturation buildup can be doubled when varying pressure in a storage aquifer, after considering pressure-dependent IFT and contact angles. Thus, assuming these two parameters to be constant across such aquifers would cause large errors in the quantification of capillary trapping of CO2. The whole study demonstrates the importance of considering pressure-dependent interfacial properties in predicting the vertical distribution of capillary trapped CO2. It has important implications in developing a better understanding of leakage risks and consequent storage safety.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2020

Co-ion specific effect on sodium halides sorption and transport in a cross-linked poly(p-styrene sulfonate-co-divinylbenzene) for membrane applications

Here, sodium halide sorption and transport in a cation exchange membrane based on cross-linked poly(p-styrene sulfonate-co-divinylbenzene) (CR61) were investigated experimentally and theoretically. At fixed co-ion valence, sodium halide partitioning between aqueous electrolyte solutions and ion exchange polymers is only minimally sensitive to co-ion chemical identity. NaCl, NaF and NaI exhibit similar solubility coefficients in CR61, which agrees reasonably well with predictions of the Donnan-Manning model, especially at high external salt concentrations. Ion activity coefficients in the membrane were evaluated and ion sorption thermodynamics were investigated. Ion diffusion coefficients in CR61 were predicted using a recently developed framework based on the Manning diffusion model, which accounts for electrostatic effects on ion diffusion, and the Mackie-Meares model, which accounts for tortuosity/area effects on ion diffusion in swollen polymers. Model predictions agree reasonably well with the experimental data, especially at high external salt concentrations. The observed decrease in salt diffusion coefficients in CR61 relative to values in aqueous solutions is due primarily to tortuosity/area effects. Salt diffusion coefficients correlate with co-ion hydrated radius and membrane water content. Finally, salt permeability coefficients predicted using the solution-diffusion model exhibit good agreement with experimental data, especially at external salt concentration greater than 0.1 mol/L.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Pore-Scale Modeling of Electrokinetics in Geomaterials

Pore-scale finite-volume continuum models of electrokinetic processes are used to predict the Debye lengths, velocity, and potential profiles for two-dimensional arrays of circles, ellipses and squares with different orientations. The pore-scale continuum model solves the coupled Navier–Stokes, Poisson, and Nernst–Planck equations to characterize the electro-osmotic pressure and streaming potentials developed on the application of an external voltage and pressure difference, respectively. Here, this model is used to predict the macroscale permeabilities of geomaterials via the widely used Carmen–Kozeny equation and through the electrokinetic coupling coefficients. The permeability results for a two-dimensional X-ray tomography-derived sand microstructure are within the same order of magnitude as the experimentally calculated values. The effect of the particle aspect ratio and orientation on the electrokinetic coupling coefficients and subsequently the electrical and hydraulic tortuosity of the porous media has been determined. These calculations suggest a highly tortuous geomaterial can be efficient for applications like decontamination and desalination.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Understanding the hydrological response of a headwater-dominated catchment by analysis of distributed surface–subsurface interactions

Abstract We computationally explore the relationship between surface–subsurface exchange and hydrological response in a headwater-dominated high elevation, mountainous catchment in East River Watershed, Colorado, USA. In order to isolate the effect of surface–subsurface exchange on the hydrological response, we compare three model variations that differ only in soil permeability. Traditional methods of hydrograph analysis that have been developed for headwater catchments may fail to properly characterize catchments, where catchment response is tightly coupled to headwater inflow. Analyzing the spatially distributed hydrological response of such catchments gives additional information on the catchment functioning. Thus, we compute hydrographs, hydrological indices, and spatio-temporal distributions of hydrological variables. The indices and distributions are then linked to the hydrograph at the outlet of the catchment. Our results show that changes in the surface–subsurface exchange fluxes trigger different flow regimes, connectivity dynamics, and runoff generation mechanisms inside the catchment, and hence, affect the distributed hydrological response. Further, changes in surface–subsurface exchange rates lead to a nonlinear change in the degree of connectivity—quantified through the number of disconnected clusters of ponding water—in the catchment. Although the runoff formation in the catchment changes significantly, these changes do not significantly alter the aggregated streamflow hydrograph. This hints at a crucial gap in our ability to infer catchment function from aggregated signatures. We show that while these changes in distributed hydrological response may not always be observable through aggregated hydrological signatures, they can be quantified through the use of indices of connectivity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗