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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Methods for Computing Physically Realistic Estimates of Electric Water Heater Demand Response Resource Suitable for Bulk Power System Planning Models

Demand response is commonly called on to reduce load during system peak times or to respond to contingency events. In future power systems with higher shares of wind and solar generation (which we describe together as variable generation [VG]), demand response could have more opportunities to provide energy shifting or operating reserve services. This report evaluates the ability of residential electric water heaters, both electric resistance water heaters (ERWHs) and heat pump water heaters (HPWHs), to provide such services starting from detailed whole-building energy models that realistically represent New England single family home stock. We use a parsimonious surrogate model to represent operational flexibility in a form suitable for linear and mixed integer programming. This enables relatively fast determination of aggregate contingency reserve resource, price-taking energy shifting outcomes, and in some cases the determination of aggregate models at the megawatt (MW) scale that can be directly included in large-scale grid models. After selecting modeling methods and parameters through various computational experiments, we find interquartile ranges of contingency reserve resource in ISO-NE for about 603,400 ERWHs of 45 MW - 69 MW for Claim10 (50 minute responses provided with 10 minutes of advanced notification) and 65 MW - 102 MW for Claim30 (30 minute responses provided with 30 minutes of advanced notification), and for about 619,000 HPWHs of 48 MW - 88 MW for Claim10 and 52 MW - 90 MW for Claim30. The overall reserve resource is up to 32% of total load for ERWHs providing Claim10 service, 47% for ERWHs providing Claim30 service, 93% for HPWHs providing Claim10 service, and 97% for HPWHs providing Claim30 service. More work is required to determine if HPWHs are inherently more suitable than ERWHs for providing contingency reserve or if these results reflect idiosyncrasies of the single family home stock model used in this study. The value of this contingency resource in a Near-term VG model of ISO-NE is $\$ 0.40$ to $\$1.20$ per water heater-year, and significantly larger, $\$ 3.80$ to $\$ 5.30$ per water heater-year in a Mid-term VG model of ISONE. Aggregating surrogate models to the MW-scale for energy shifting service is more challenging than for contingency service and we only present such results for ERWHs, because we were unable to determine satisfactory ways to deal with HPWHs' time-varying and path dependent operational characteristics. Individual surrogate models suitable for evaluating the energy shifting resource from both ERWHs and HPWHs are created, however, and dispatched against day-ahead prices from the Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG models of ISO-NE. The individual surrogate models are able to access and potentially shift all 640 GWh of HPWH load and 1,547 GWh of ERWH load we modeled in two different single family home stock models. In contrast, the most effective model of aggregate ERWH shifting resource we created only captured 34.7% of the total ERWH load. Energy shifting affected by price-taking dispatch against modeled day-ahead energy prices produces per water heater year profits of $\$19.44$ - $\$22.93$ for individual HPWHs, $\$39.11$ - $\$40.54$ for individual ERWHs, and up to $\$4.00$ - $\$4.24$ for aggregated ERWHs, with the variations mainly due to grid conditions (more or less VG). When the supply-side response to these changes is accounted for, the per water heater year production cost savings for ISO-NE are $\$7.50$ to $\$17.70$ for the most effective set of endogenously dispatched aggregate ERWHs, $\$15.60$ to $\$15.70$ for individual ERWHs dispatched against the DA prices, and $\$10.70$ to $\$11.20$ for individual HPWHs dispatched against DA prices. Those ranges primarily represent the difference between Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG grid conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Recent progress in the design of the K-DEMO divertor

The preliminary conceptual design of the Korean fusion demonstration reactor (K-DEMO) with a major radius of 6.8 m and the fusion power of 2200 MW has been studied since 2012. The overall configuration of the K-DEMO divetor system based on the ITER-like water-cooled tungsten technology is a double-null type symmetric divertor subdivided into 32 toroidal modules for the vertical maintenance. A detached divertor scenario with impurity seeding was considered as the primary approach for the power exhaust to reduce the peak heat flux lower than the engineering limit of 10 MW/m 2 . The power exhaust performance at the scrap off layer was estimated by using UEDGE-2D code, a two-dimensional fluid transport code for collisional edge plasma and neutral species like N, Ne, and Ar. Particle and heat flux on inboard and outboard divertor targets were calculated for the detached cased depending on parameters such as the impurity seeding rate, pumping rate, and the pedestal density. On the other hand, a magnetic solution like X-divertor, snowflake divertor, and super X-divertor to expand the plasma wet area was considered for K-DEMO since the detached divertor increasing a radiation fraction by impurity seeding might be able to be unstable. However, the extremely high current of poloidal coils was required more than the engineering limit, 20 MA, to form magnetic field lines for the alternative divertors. Based on the physical calculation of the edge plasma, engineering analyses were carried out to find out the thermal and structural reliability. The thermo-hydraulic analysis confirmed thermal stability, whether all comprising materials are operating within their allowable temperature windows when the case of the peak heat flux is set to 10 MW/m 2 on the outboard divertor target. The response surface optimization method derived two optimal design candidates employing two kinds of heat sink materials, respectively: the reduced activation ferritic martensitic (RAFM) steel and CuCrZr alloy. Additionally, the drawbacks and merits of the two materials were definite. The optimal design with applying RAFM steel was vulnerable to withstand thermal and mechanical loads since low thermal conductivity caused too thin thickness of the heat sink. On the other hand, the CuCrZr alloy has critical drawbacks in terms of activation and radioactive waste despite its high thermal conductivity. Meanwhile, preliminary electromagnetic (EM) analysis was carried out to estimate the EM loads caused by the abnormal behaviors of plasma since EM loads are one of the most critical external loads for designing a DEMO divertor.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Role of Snowmelt and Subsurface Heterogeneity in Headwater Hydrology of a Mountainous Catchment in Colorado: A Model‐Data Integration Approach

Mountainous headwater streams are sustained by both snowmelt‐driven streamflow and groundwater discharge in the Upper Colorado River Basin. However, predicting headwater stream discharge magnitude and peak flow timing is challenging in mountainous terrains, where snowmelt rates vary with vegetation type and elevation, and heterogeneous subsurface physical properties influence groundwater storage and its release. We used a model‐data integration approach to investigate the roles of snowmelt and subsurface structure in stream discharge and groundwater level. We ran an ensemble of 100 integrated surface‐subsurface hydrologic models for a mountainous headwater catchment near Crested Butte, Colorado, USA. We also evaluated and calibrated these models against observed data sets, including snow depth measurements using distributed temperature probes, stream discharge, and groundwater levels. Calibration with multiple data sources using neural density estimators has further constrained uncertainty in subsurface properties and snowmelt rates. Results indicated that observed slower snowmelt rates in evergreen forests delayed the peak flow and baseflow onset. In upstream areas with lower subsurface permeability, water was stored within the subsurface but was not released as interflow or shallow groundwater flow, and thereby not contributing to downstream streamflow during recession limb periods. Double peaks in groundwater occurred in areas with spatial subsurface heterogeneity, in our case due to the contrast between granodiorite and Mancos shale. These process‐based insights into groundwater and snowmelt dynamics in mountainous headwaters will help improve predictions of headwater hydrology.

Wang, Lijing [University of Connecticut, Storrs, C↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effect of ion interactions on the Raman spectrum of NO 3 − : Toward monitoring of low-activity nuclear waste at Hanford

Raman spectroscopy is a valuable in-situ technique for many applications. The concentrations of species in complex ionic mixtures of nuclear waste can be estimated using Raman measurements. However, it has been experimentally observed that ion interactions can cause a modification of Raman peak intensities and positions. The present work explores the nonlinear behavior associated with the nitrate anion, NO 3 − , which is present in abundance in low activity nuclear waste. We examine changes in the main Raman peak of the nitrate anion in the presence of other ions. A wide range of concentrations are covered, including those expected during direct-feed low-activity waste (DFLAW) processing at the Hanford site in the State of Washington. The experiments showed that the ions interact and associate to form ion pairs, which results in a blue shift (i.e., a shift towards higher wavenumbers) in the main Raman peak of nitrate. The results indicate that cation concentration is a better predictor of the peak shift, compared to ionic strength, both for binary and multicomponent mixtures. These findings have direct implications on the development of spectra-to-composition models for the DFLAW system, since they show deviations from the linearity assumptions used in common chemometric models.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Search for octupolar order in NpO 2 by neutron powder diffraction

The magnetic structure of neptunium dioxide (NpO 2 ) remains a mystery despite decades of research. We revisited the search for magnetic ordering in NpO 2 by performing a powder neutron diffraction experiment at low temperatures and relatively large values of Q. Diffraction data were collected for 300 MK, 15 K, and 35 K to understand the phase transition near 25 K. However, no significant changes in the neutron diffraction pattern were identified. Using the octupolar magnetic form factor j 6 , the maximum theoretical expected value of the magnetic moment (3.27 μ B ), the calculated magnetic Bragg peak intensities would not be observable in neutron powder diffraction data. This value is much larger than the previously estimated magnetic moment of ~0.1 μ B . In conclusion, supported by experimental results, these calculations suggest that unpolarized neutron powder diffraction is unsuitable for measuring octupolar ordering in NpO 2 .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ion specific, thin film confinement effects on conductivity in polymerized ionic liquids.

Acrylate-based polymerized ionic liquids (PILs) with ammonium (Am) or imidazolium (Im) cations and tetrafluoroborate (BF4) or bis(trifluoromethanesulfonyl)imide (TFSI) anions were synthesized and spin coated onto gold interdigitated electrodes on silica to investigate nanoconfinement effects on ion transport. The film thickness ranged from 23 to 313 nm. A significant reduction of the in-plane conductivity was observed in some PIL thin films with thickness below 100 nm. Specifically, Am BF4 PIL showed the largest conductivity drop (ca. 50% difference between a 22 nm and a 261 nm film) while Im TFSI PIL showed almost no change under confinement. The difference in conductivity drop is discussed in terms of (i) differences in interfacial layer thickness by fitting a two-layer conductivity model and (ii) potential changes in glass transition temperature (T-g) under confinement, which were estimated using the Vogel-Fulcher-Tammann fits of bulk conductivities. Decreasing film thickness also caused the dielectric loss peaks to shift to lower frequency, indicating that the ion diffusion process slowed under confinement.

Zhao, Qiujie↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections

Abstract Over the last decades, climate science has evolved rapidly across multiple expert domains. Our best tools to capture state‐of‐the‐art knowledge in an internally self‐consistent modeling framework are the increasingly complex fully coupled Earth System Models (ESMs). However, computational limitations and the structural rigidity of ESMs mean that the full range of uncertainties across multiple domains are difficult to capture with ESMs alone. The tools of choice are instead more computationally efficient reduced complexity models (RCMs), which are structurally flexible and can span the response dynamics across a range of domain‐specific models and ESM experiments. Here we present Phase 2 of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP Phase 2), the first comprehensive intercomparison of RCMs that are probabilistically calibrated with key benchmark ranges from specialized research communities. Unsurprisingly, but crucially, we find that models which have been constrained to reflect the key benchmarks better reflect the key benchmarks. Under the low‐emissions SSP1‐1.9 scenario, across the RCMs, median peak warming projections range from 1.3 to 1.7°C (relative to 1850–1900, using an observationally based historical warming estimate of 0.8°C between 1850–1900 and 1995–2014). Further developing methodologies to constrain these projection uncertainties seems paramount given the international community's goal to contain warming to below 1.5°C above preindustrial in the long‐term. Our findings suggest that users of RCMs should carefully evaluate their RCM, specifically its skill against key benchmarks and consider the need to include projections benchmarks either from ESM results or other assessments to reduce divergence in future projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate Change and Changes in Compound Coastal-Riverine Flooding Hazard Along the U.S. Coasts

The cooccurrence of coastal and riverine flooding leads to compound events with substantial impacts on people and property in low-lying coastal areas. Climate change could increase the level of compound flood hazard through higher extreme sea levels and river flows. Here, a bivariate flood hazard assessment method is proposed to estimate compound coastal-riverine frequency under current and future climate conditions. A copula-based approach is used to estimate the joint return period (JRP) of compound floods by incorporating sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in peak river flows into the marginal distributions of flood drivers. Specifically, the changes in JRP of compound major coastal-riverine flooding defined based on simultaneous exceedances above major coastal and riverine thresholds, are explored by midcentury. Subsequently, the increase in the probability of occurrence of at least one compound major coastal-riverine flooding for a given period of time is quantified. The proposed compound flood hazard assessment is conducted at 26 paired tidal-riverine stations along the Contiguous United States coast with long-term data and defined flood thresholds. We show that the northeast Atlantic and the western part of the Gulf coasts are experiencing the highest compound major coastal-riverine flood probability under current conditions. However, future SLR scenarios show the highest frequency amplification along the southeast Atlantic coast. The impact of changes in peak river flows is found to be considerably less than that of SLR. Climate change impacts, especially SLR, may lead to more frequent compound events, which cannot be ignored for future adaptation responses in estuary regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electric transmission value and its drivers in United States power markets

Electric transmission infrastructure plays a vital role during extreme weather and supply disruptions and can enable low-cost electricity systems. This paper contributes to a more complete understanding of the value and cost-effectiveness of transmission, as well as barriers to its development. By studying wholesale energy market prices in the United States between 2012 and 2022, we find that additional transfer capacity between regions would have been especially valuable, with a median value of $116 million per GW per year. This capacity would often have provided balanced benefits to each region. The market value of transmission was highly influenced by a small fraction of time: 5% of hours typically captured at least 45% of the total value. These peak periods were primarily driven by unforeseen changes in conditions within one day of operations. Annualized transmission infrastructure cost estimates were lower than the average market value for most locations, including all links crossing regional seams, where the value-to-cost ratio was often greater than 4. This suggests that there are barriers to developing valuable grid infrastructure. These results complement forward-looking modeling studies and support efforts to improve modeling practices.

Energy economics↗
DOE OSTI2025

On the origins of the continuum radiation of an underwater nanosecond pulsed discharge: an absolute-intensity optical emission spectroscopy study

The plasma properties of an underwater nanosecond pulsed discharge remain not fully understood despite being extensively studied for several decades. In this work, we focus on the continuum radiation generated in such discharges. The discharge is characterized by power measurements as well as by absolute emission spectroscopy. When observed, Stark broadenings of H α , H β and O (777 nm) are employed for electron number densities measurements. The discharge was generated by a 10 ns main voltage pulse followed by multiple secondary pulses, which last up to 4 μs after the primary pulse. It is shown that a peak power of 3.5 MW and energy of 35 mJ is coupled during the main voltage pulse. A quantitative estimation of the different possible continuum radiation sources is performed through analytical calculations. This includes emission (blackbody, free–bound and free–free bremsstrahlung radiations) and absorption (electron–ion and electron–neutral free–free inverse bremsstrahlung) mechanisms. Our results suggest that electron–neutral free–free bremsstrahlung is the principal mechanism responsible for the strong continuum radiation observed experimentally during the primary pulse. We also show that self-absorption through electron–neutral (and electron–ion) inverse bremsstrahlung plays an important role in the main discharge pulse. Further, our results indicate the non-negligible additional contribution of the H 2 continuum during the first reflected pulse which is likely ignited in bubbles generated by the first discharge pulse.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optical interferometry of high-energy nanosecond pin-to-pin discharges in atmospheric air

This paper describes the construction and application of an optical-frequency Michelson interferometer for measuring electron number density within high-energy, high-power nanosecond pin-to-pin discharges (>10 mJ pulse energy, >1 MW pulse power). A 21 mJ, 11 ns spark across a 3 mm pin-to-pin electrode gap was analyzed at 7 ns into the discharge to demonstrate the operation of the interferometer. A peak electron density of 2.3 × 10 17 cm −3 was observed at these conditions, and it was consistent with estimates of plasma channel resistance based on V–I measurements. This initial work paves the way for a larger parametric study of the spatial and temporal dynamics of electron number density in nanosecond pin-do-pin discharges under various conditions.

electron number density↗
DOE OSTI2026

Nanoscale Defects as Probes of Time-Reversal Symmetry Breaking

Nanoscale defects such as nitrogen-vacancy (NV) centers can serve as sensitive and noninvasive probes of electromagnetic fields and fluctuations from materials, which in turn can be used to characterize these systems. Here we specifically discuss how NV centers can probe time-reversal symmetry breaking (TRSB) phenomena in low-dimensional electronic systems. We argue that the difference in relaxation rates Γ$_{±\hat{z}}$ of NV centers starting from 𝑚 = ±1 spin states to the ground state with 𝑚 = 0 directly probes TRSB. The effect arises from the difference in the fluctuation spectrum of left- and right-polarized electromagnetic fields emanating from such materials. In the quantum Hall setting, the NV center experiences (nearly zero) large additional contribution to its relaxation due to the presence of the material when its magnetic dipole (anti)aligns with the external field. More generally, the difference in the relaxation rates is sensitive to the imaginary part of the wave-vector-dependent Hall conductivity. We argue that this can be used to determine the Hall viscosity, which can potentially distinguish candidate fractional quantum Hall states and be used to infer the pairing angular momentum in TRSB superconductors. We compute the average relaxation rate [Γ$_{+\hat{z}}$ + Γ$_{-\hat{z}}$] near thin film superconductors and find that it exhibits a Hebel-Slichter-like enhancement below 𝑇 𝑐 . The difference Γ$_{+\hat{z}}$ −Γ$_{-\hat{z}}$ also inherits this peak but is only nonzero for 𝑇 < 𝑇 𝑐 and only if the superconductivity is chiral. We provide concrete estimates for observing this effect in stacked twisted bismuth strontium calcium copper oxide flakes.

NV centers↗
DOE OSTI2023

Utilizing GEOPHIRES-X Beyond Electricity

The GEOPHIRES tool is a techno-economic simulator for evaluating the thermal performance and cost-competitiveness of geothermal plants for electricity, heating, and/or cooling. The tool combines reservoir, wellbore, and surface plant cost and performance models to estimate overall techno-economic metrics such as net present value or levelized cost of electricity, heating, or cooling. We recently upgraded the tool to an object-oriented Python framework, presented in an accompanying paper. As part of the upgrade, we enhanced the capability to simulate the performance of geothermal plants for heating and cooling, which is the topic of this paper. Specifically, we (1) integrated absorption chillers to investigate the performance of utilizing geothermal heat for cooling, (2) integrated a heat pump module to boost the geothermal temperature and thermal output, (3) integrated a district heating module to estimate heating demand for a district based on local weather data, and simulated heat supply with geothermal energy and peaking boilers, and (4) integrated GEOPHIRES as an engine in the dGeo simulator to perform a geospatial analysis of geothermal district heating feasibility across a large region (e.g., a state or the entire United States) utilizing resource and thermal demand maps. This paper presents background information and case studies for several of these heating and cooling end-use options in GEOPHIRES.

absorption chiller↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mitigation Methods for Piperazine Oxidation in Post-Combustion Carbon Capture

Piperazine is a promising second-generation solvent for amine scrubbing in post-combustion CO2 capture. However, the oxidative degradation of PZ can cause environmental problems and economic loss. This work presents the effects of two mitigation methods: carbon treating and N2 sparging, on the PZ oxidation in long-term operations. The species and their respective quantities adsorbed by the activated carbon were tested in a bench-scale device. The carbon was then tested in the High Temperature Oxidation Reactor (HTOR), where the solvent oxidizes at a reasonably fast rate. Pilot plant campaigns were also performed at the UT Austin SRP and the National Carbon Capture Center (NCCC) and the effects were verified. When dissolved Fe is removed by carbon treating or other methods, available soluble Fe in the system dissolves and replaces the dissolved Fe. Therefore, all available Fe and ligands need to be removed for the mitigation to be effective. The sources of soluble Fe include fly ash and the corrosion of stainless steel, and the ligands are degradation products. 8 All PZ degraded solvents have two absorbance peaks at 320 nm and 538 nm. The 320 nm peak is caused by dissolved metals, especially Fe, complexed by degradation products. The 320 nm peak is related to the amine degradation level and can be used as a simple and efficient method to estimate the amine degradation rate. The pilot plant data suggest that NO2 can oxidize PZ significantly, possibly through radical reactions. 0.01 mmol/kg-hr absorption of NO2 increased the PZ oxidation rate from 1.2 mmol/kg-hr to 2.5 mmol/kg-hr.

Yuying, Wu↗
DOE OSTI2020

Automated Cloud Based Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network Based SWE Prediction

Snow derived water is a critical component of the US water supply. Measurements of the Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) and associated predictions of peak SWE and snowmelt onset are essential inputs for water management efforts. This paper aims to develop an integrated framework for real-time data ingestion, estimation, prediction and visualization of SWE based on daily snow datasets. In particular, we develop a data-driven approach for estimating and predicting SWE dynamics using the Long Short-Term Memory neural network (LSTM) method. Our approach uses historical datasets (precipitation, air temperature, SWE, and snow thickness) collected at NRCS Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations to train the LSTM network and current year data to predict SWE behavior. The performance of our prediction was compared for different prediction dates and prediction training datasets. Our results suggest that the proposed LSTM network can be an efficient tool for forecasting the SWE timeseries, as well as Peak SWE and snowmelt timing. Results showed that the window size impacts the model performance (where the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) ranged from 0.96 to 0.85 and the Rooted Mean Square Error (RMSE) ranged from 0.038 to 0.07) with an optimum number that should be calibrated for different stations and climate conditions. In addition, by implementing the LSTM prediction capability in a cloud based site-monitoring platform, we automate model-data integration. By making the data accessible through a graphical web interface and an underlying API which exposes both training and prediction capabilities. The associated results can be made easily accessible to a broad range of stakeholders.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A nonparametric approach to modeling dependence among production parameters for energy cost estimation

Dependence existing among production parameters can significantly affect energy costs. For material removal processes, processing times and material amounts to be cut have positive dependence, and the dependence can affect energy costs by varying a peak electricity load. Existing methods to model the dependence of production parameters are based on parametric approaches that cannot accurately represent the dependence due to the rigid nature of parametric models. To address this issue, this study proposes a method to quantify dependence among manufacturing parameters through the application of the empirical copula to the dependence between the milling processing time and the amount of volume to be cut. The proposed method is illustrated by a case study of a manufacturing facility consisting of milling machines; a total of 27 scenarios are simulated for energy cost estimations. The case study clearly shows that the proposed method can capture the dependence between the milling parameters more accurately than a conventional dependence measure from parametric correlation models. Furthermore, the findings from this study would be useful to estimate energy costs in that the proposed method provides a better fit to real production data than conventional parametric approaches can.

42 ENGINEERING↗