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Results for “parametric uncertainty”

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NASA NTRS1988

On the simultaneous improvement of a satellite orbit and determination of sea surface topography using altimeter data

A method is presented in satellite altimetry that attempts to simultaneously determine the geoid and sea surface toography with minimum wavelengths of about 500 km and to reduce the radial orbit errors caused by geopotential uncertainties. The modeling of these errors is made using the linearized Lagrangian perturbation theory. Observation equations are developed using sea surface heights and crossover discrepancies as observables. A minimum variance solution with prior information can then provide estimates of parametrs representing the sea surface topography and corrections to the orbit. The potential of the method is demonstrated in a solution where simulated geopotential errors and the Levitus sea surface topography are used to generate the observables for a Seasat 3 day arc. The simulation results suggest that the method can be used to efficiently process real altimeter data.

Engelis, Theodossios↗

NASA NTRS2003

Probabilistic Unsteady Aerodynamic Analysis

Probabilistic CFD design is needed because we are asked to do more with less. To cost effectively accomplish the design task, we need to formally quantify the effect of uncertainties (variables) in the design. Probabilistic design is one effective method to formally quantify the effect of uncertainties. Our objective is to establish a revolutionary new early design process, by developing non-deterministic physics-based probabilistic design tools, which will include all the life cycle processes. This work was concerned with the usefulness of parametric optimization method coupled with a Navier-Stokes analysis code for the aero-thermodynamic design of turbomachinery combustor liner. The interconnection between the CFD code and NESSUS codes will facilitate the coupling between the thermal profiles and structural design. We have developed new concepts for reducing the computational cost of unsteady, three-dimensional, compressible aerodynamic analyses for multistage turbomachinery flows. The flow was modeled by the three-dimensional Favre-Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations using the k-E turbulence closure, which was integrated using an implicit third-order upwind solver. The methodology developed in this work is expected to lead to the design optimization of turbomachinery blades.

Gorla, Rama S. R.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Structural weight analysis of hypersonic aircraft

The weights of major structural components of hypersonic, liquid hydrogen fueled aircraft are estimated and discussed. The major components are the body structure, body thermal protection system tankage and wing structure. The method of estimating body structure weight is presented in detail while the weights of the other components are estimated by methods given in referenced papers. Two nominal vehicle concepts are considered. The advanced concept employs a wing-body configuration and hot structure with a nonintegral tank, while the potential concept employs an all body configuration and cold, integral pillow tankage structure. Characteristics of these two concepts are discussed and parametric data relating their weight fractions to variations in vehicle shape and size design criteria and mission requirements, and structural arrangement are presented. Although the potential concept is shown to have a weight advantage over the advanced, it involves more design uncertainties since it is farther removed in design from existing aircraft.

Ardema, M. D.↗

NASA NTRS2001

The 3D Recognition, Generation, Fusion, Update and Refinement (RG4) Concept

This paper describes an active (real time) recognition strategy whereby information is inferred iteratively across several viewpoints in descent imagery. We will show how we use inverse theory within the context of parametric model generation, namely height and spectral reflection functions, to generate model assertions. Using this strategy in an active context implies that, from every viewpoint, the proposed system must refine its hypotheses taking into account the image and the effect of uncertainties as well. The proposed system employs probabilistic solutions to the problem of iteratively merging information (images) from several viewpoints. This involves feeding the posterior distribution from all previous images as a prior for the next view. Novel approaches will be developed to accelerate the inversion search using novel statistic implementations and reducing the model complexity using foveated vision. Foveated vision refers to imagery where the resolution varies across the image. In this paper, we allow the model to be foveated where the highest resolution region is called the foveation region. Typically, the images will have dynamic control of the location of the foveation region. For descent imagery in the Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) process, it is possible to have more than one foveation region. This research initiative is directed towards descent imagery in connection with NASA's EDL applications. Three-Dimensional Model Recognition, Generation, Fusion, Update, and Refinement (RGFUR or RG4) for height and the spectral reflection characteristics are in focus for various reasons, one of which is the prospect that their interpretation will provide for real time active vision for automated EDL.

Maluf, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Constraining the Venus Interior Structure With Future VERITAS Measurements of the Gravitational Atmospheric Loading

The complex dynamics of the Venus atmosphere produces a periodic mass redistribution pattern that creates a time-variable modulation of the gravity field of Venus. This gravity signal depends on the net transport of mass across the globe and on the response of the solid body to the normal loading of its crust imparted by the atmosphere. In this work, we explore the possibility of measuring this phenomenon with VERITAS, a NASA Discovery-class mission. By simulating the gravity science experiment, we explore the possibility of measuring the response of Venus to the atmospheric loading, parametrized by the loading Love numbers ( 𝑘 𝑙 ' ), and assess the dependence of these parameters on fundamental interior structure properties. Using the most recent models of Venus' interior, we compute the Venus Love numbers in a compressible viscoelastic setting and compare them with the predicted uncertainty of the VERITAS measurements. We show that VERITAS will measure 𝑘 2 ' at the 4% level and that this measurement could possibly help to distinguish between different equally plausible interior structure models, especially allowing us to distinguish different rheological laws. We also show that a measurement campaign such as the VERITAS gravity science investigation has the potential of measuring 𝑘 2 ' not only at the loading forcing frequency, but also at the tidal frequency, ultimately providing a way to probe the response of the planet at different forcing periods.

Atmospheric tides↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of Data Reduction Methods for Dynamic Stability Tests in a Magnetic Suspension and Balance System

The NASA/ODU 6-inch Magnetic Suspension and Balance System (MSBS) is operational in a “free-to-yaw” configuration in a subsonic wind tunnel. The MSBS hardware has been heavily modified over recent years to utilize a transverse magnetization scheme, with mixed electromagnetic and motion tracking camera position sensors and a relatively sophisticated control system. The project aims to provide a unique test capability for dynamic stability testing of planetary entry capsules, free from support interference. Aerodynamic tests are being conducted, with a focus of validation of the data reduction methods used to extract dynamic stability parameters. The unique complication is the existence of magnetic, aerodynamic, and mass centers, where magnetic, aerodynamic, and inertia forces respectively are resolved. The paper will report on tests of a family of EEV-like geometries, where the conical half-angle varied between 45 and 60 degrees in steps of 3.75 degrees. The paper will present experimental results from the parametric family of EEV-like geometries. Simulation results will also be presented, based on a two or three degree-of-freedom Simulink model. The model allows the exploration of the effects of non-coincident centers and the sensitivity of results arising from uncertainties in location.

Entry Systems Modeling↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Blind Validation Study of PRICE TruePlanning and SEER-H

Two of the primary parametric costing tools used to estimate the development and production cost of future spacecraft hardware are PRICE TruePlanning by PRICE Systems, and System Estimation and Evaluation of Resources-Hardware (SEER-H) by Galorath. These are standard tools used by NASA and industry to estimate the cost of new aerospace hardware. This study is an independent verification of the accuracy of these tools and was originally published in 2018. The purpose of this presentation is to circulate the findings of that study among the NASA cost community. Both PRICE Systems and Galorath have completed internal validation studies of their parametric cost estimating tools; however, they only provided the results of the studies and did not detail the exact methods used to perform the validation. In the present study, cost estimators used PRICE TruePlanning and SEER-H to estimate the cost of twelve different past NASA science missions. The estimators were prevented from knowing the actual cost of the missions in an effort to minimize cognitive biases. In the present study, SEER-H had an average error of 23%, median error of -0.3%, with a standard deviation of 43%. PRICE had an average error of 52%, median error of 50%, and standard deviation of 45%. Nine of the twelve mission's actual costs fell within the 80% confidence interval of SEER's probabilistic estimates; however, none of the missions fell within PRICE’s confidence intervals. There were several factors independent of PRICE and SEER-H which may have affected the accuracy of the results in the present study including: uncertainty in the technical data used for the estimates, the methods used to estimate uncertainty in spacecraft component mass and numbers of prototypes, and the experience of the estimators.

SEER↗

NASA NTRS1983

Spatial Fluctuations in the Diffuse Cosmic X-Ray Background

The bright, essentially isotropic, X-ray sky flux above 2 keV yields information on the universe at large distances. However, a definitive understanding of the origin of the flux is lacking. Some fraction of the total flux is contributed by active galactic nuclei and clusters of galaxies, but less than one percent of the total is contributed by the or approximately 3 keV band resolved sources, which is the band where the sky flux is directly observed. Parametric models of AGN (quasar) luminosity function evolution are examined. Most constraints are by the total sky flux. The acceptability of particular models hinges on assumptions currently not directly testable. The comparison with the Einstein Observatory 1 to keV low flux source counts is hampered by spectral uncertainties. A tentative measurement of a large scale dipole anisotropy is consistent with the velocity and direction derived from the dipole in the microwave background. The impact of the X-ray anisotropy limits for other scales on studies of large-scale structure in the universe is sketched. Models of the origins of the X-ray sky flux are reviewed, and future observational programs outlined.

Shafer, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS1985

New formalism for two-photon quantum optics. I - Quadrature phases and squeezed states. II - Mathematical foundation and compact notation

A new formalism for analyzing two-photon devices, such as parametric amplifiers and phase-conjugate mirrors, is proposed in part I, focusing on the properties and the significance of the quadrature-phase amplitudes and two-mode squeezed states. Time-stationary quasi-probability noise is also detailed for the case of Gaussian noise, and uncertainty principles for the quadrature-phase amplitudes are outlined, as well as some important properties of the two-mode states. Part II establishes a mathematical foundation for the formalism, with introduction of a vector notation for compact representation of two-mode properties. Fundamental unitary operators and special quantum states are also examined with an emphasis on the two-mode squeezed states. The results are applied to a previously studied degenerate limit (epsilon = 0).

Caves, C. M.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mass Modeling of NEP Power Conversion Concepts for Human Mars Exploration

The specific mass (mass per unit of electric power output) of an NEP power conversion system is an important metric for the performance and feasibility of a crewed NEP vehicle. This work explores a component level buildup of the specific mass for a crewed NEP vehicle. The buildup is highly parametric and avoids being tied to specific technologies where practical. This allows the specific mass to be calculated for a variety of assumptions and operating conditions and be used to optimize particular design variables or compare different system configurations. The values of specific mass are dependent on assumptions with significant uncertainty; comparison between cases and trends observed in the models are the main goal of the work presented here. To demonstrate the level of insight this type of modeling can provide, the impacts of compressor inlet temperature, turbine inlet temperature, and radiator pressure drop on specific mass are explored. In addition, the specific mass can be used to assess the benefit of separating the radiator and reactor loop from the power conversion cycle.

NEP↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mass Modeling of NEP Power Conversion Concepts for Human Mars Exploration

nep↗

NASA NTRS1990

EVA/ORU model architecture using RAMCOST

A parametrically driven simulation model is presented in order to provide a detailed insight into the effects of various input parameters in the life testing of a modular space suit. The RAMCOST model employed is a user-oriented simulation model for studying the life-cycle costs of designs under conditions of uncertainty. The results obtained from the EVA simulated model are used to assess various mission life testing parameters such as the number of joint motions per EVA cycle time, part availability, and number of inspection requirements. RAMCOST first simulates EVA completion for NASA application using a probabilistic like PERT network. With the mission time heuristically determined, RAMCOST then models different orbital replacement unit policies with special application to the astronaut's space suit functional designs.

Ntuen, Celestine A.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Probabilistic Study of Fluid Structure Interaction

Probabilistic CFD design is needed because we are asked to do more with less. To cost effectively accomplish the design task, we need to formally quantify the effect of uncertainties (variables) in the design. Probabilistic design is one effective method to formally quantify the effect of uncertainties. Our objective is to establish a revolutionary new early design process, by developing non-deterministic physics-based probabilistic design tools, which will include all the life cycle processes. Breakthroughs will be sought in speed, accuracy, intelligence, and usability of the system. This paper is concerned with the usefulness of parametric optimization method coupled with a Navier-Stokes analysis code for the aero-thermodynamic design of turbomachinery combustor liner. The interconnection between the CFD code and NESSUS codes facilitated the coupling between the thermal profiles and structural design. We have developed new concepts for reducing the computational cost of unsteady, three-dimensional, compressible aerodynamic analyses for multistage turbomachinery flows. The flow was modeled by the three-dimensional Favre-Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations using the k-epsilon turbulence closure, which was integrated using an implicit third-order upwind solver. The methodology developed in this paper is expected to lead to the design optimization of turbomachinery blades.

Gorla, Rama S. R.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Ground and Airborne Methane Measurements Using Optical Parametric Amplifiers

We report on ground and airborne methane measurements with an active sensing instrument using widely tunable, seeded optical parametric generation (OPG). The technique has been used to measure methane, CO2, water vapor, and other trace gases in the near and mid-infrared spectral regions. Methane is a strong greenhouse gas on Earth and it is also a potential biogenic marker on Mars and other planetary bodies. Methane in the Earth's atmosphere survives for a shorter time than CO2 but its impact on climate change can be larger than CO2. Carbon and methane emissions from land are expected to increase as permafrost melts exposing millennial-age carbon stocks to respiration (aerobic-CO2 and anaerobic-CH4) and fires. Methane emissions from c1athrates in the Arctic Ocean and on land are also likely to respond to climate warming. However, there is considerable uncertainty in present Arctic flux levels, as well as how fluxes will change with the changing environment. For Mars, methane measurements are of great interest because of its potential as a strong biogenic marker. A remote sensing instrument that can measure day and night over all seasons and latitudes can localize sources of biogenic gas plumes produced by subsurface chemistry or biology, and aid in the search for extra-terrestrial life. In this paper we report on remote sensing measurements of methane using a high peak power, widely tunable optical parametric generator (OPG) operating at 3.3 micrometers and 1.65 micrometers. We have demonstrated detection of methane at 3.3 micrometers and 1650 nanometers in an open path and compared them to accepted standards. We also report on preliminary airborne demonstration of methane measurements at 1.65 micrometers.

Numata, Kenji↗

NASA NTRS1994

Optimization for minimum sensitivity to uncertain parameters

A procedure to design a structure for minimum sensitivity to uncertainties in problem parameters is described. The approach is to minimize directly the sensitivity derivatives of the optimum design with respect to fixed design parameters using a nested optimization procedure. The procedure is demonstrated for the design of a bimetallic beam for minimum weight with insensitivity to uncertainties in structural properties. The beam is modeled with finite elements based on two dimensional beam analysis. A sequential quadratic programming procedure used as the optimizer supplies the Lagrange multipliers that are used to calculate the optimum sensitivity derivatives. The method was perceived to be successful from comparisons of the optimization results with parametric studies.

Pritchard, Jocelyn I.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Mars Ascent Vehicle-First Stage Motor

This project is development effort of a first stage solid motor based on a two-stage solid motor Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) design for the robotic Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission (fig. 1). The MSR MAV has been studied for decades and multiple concepts have been shown to meet the mission objectives as posed.1 However, there remains significant uncertainty with the MAV requirements. The sample container and sample cache itself is immature. Additionally, MAV-specific requirements ranging from full three-axis controlled and strict communication requirements to minimal capability concepts are still under consideration. Given the maturity of the overall mission requirements, the MAV has been limited to a large number of parametric analyses and paper studies. Recently, a Jet Propulsion Laboratory study highlighted the flexibility of a two-stage solid motor concept. The MAV itself is driven by the constraints of the Entry, Decent, and Landing (EDL) system. Within the EDL constraints, there is a range of MAV options ranging in complexity from simple spun upper stage options to higher capability three-axis controlled solutions. There are also options to trade the ratio of mission (Delta)V between the first and second stage. Finally, sensitivity studies also indicated that solid motors with a high percentage of off-load flexability only had minor impact on the total system mass over a single point design optimized motor. This flexibility in the first stage motor has allowed NASA to mature the design of the motor beyond parametric analyses and start to address known design challenges of the motor.

Dankanich, John↗

NASA NTRS2019

Utilization of Airborne Observations to Assess Model Parametrizations of Critical RH Profiles in the Arctic Ocean

Observational paucity is a reality in the Arctic Ocean. This is especially true for near-surface variables such as temperature, moisture, heat fluxes and BL clouds. As a result, modeling has become one of the major avenues for understanding current and future Arctic trends. Reanalyses are frequently used to force global ocean circulation and sea-ice models. But in northern high latitudes, model integrations and reanalyses are known to have large uncertainties in temperature and humidity profiles, and in boundary layer cloudiness. These are common sources of error in the surface radiative budget terms.An important way to diagnose these biases spatially and temporally is by using satellite remote sensing data. However, remotely-sensed observations also have large uncertainties, especially in near-surface temperature and relative humidity profiles.In situ observational studies are important in bridging our knowledge gap in regions such as the Arctic Ocean. Here, we utilize airborne and ship observations from the ARISE, ACME-IV, and ASCOS campaigns to construct critical relative humidity (RH) profiles over the Beaufort Sea. Such profiles are used as parameterization inputs in the NASA GOES global model to derive the total water condensate in a model grid-box, which determines the cloud fraction. Currently, the critical RH profiles are derived by global AIRS data, relaying mostly on mid-latitude regions, which are not necessarily relevant to the Arctic.We derive campaign-wide mean, standard deviation, and critical RH values, for grid size of 50x50 km and altitude bins between 50 to 400 m, covering both open-ocean and sea-ice covered regions. We compare profiles over open ocean and sea-ice, and look at correlations between the observed critical RH values and water condensate (by cloud number concentration) from observations versus the modeled ones. We then input our calculated values of minimal critical RH values into a set of GEOS single column model (SCM) simulations over the ARISE and ASCOS regions and compare the differences between the predicted values of cloud liquid water path (LWP), ice water path (IWP) and surface fluxes with the observed ones under the range of input parameterizations. Finally, we discuss the implications on surface radiative budget predictions in this region.

Segal-Rozenhaimer, Michal↗

NASA NTRS2003

Measurements of the Coexistence Curve near the Liquid-Gas Critical Point

The shape of the liquid-gas coexistence curve of He-3 very near the critical point (-2x10(exp -6) < t < -5x10(exp -3) was measured using the quasi-static thermogram method. The study was performed in Earth s gravitational field using two different height calorimetry cells, both originally designed for simultaneous measurements of the isochoric heat capacity, isothermal compressibility, and PVT. The heights of two cells were 0.5 mm and 4.8 cm. The uncertainty in measuring the phase transition temperature was typically +/-2 micro-K. The measured coexistence curve near the critical point was strongly affected by the gravitational field. Away from the critical point, the coexistence curve obtained using this technique was also consistent with the earlier work using the local density measurements of Pittman et al. The recent crossover parametric model of the equation-of-state are used to analyze the height-dependent measured coexistence curves. Data analyses have indicated that microgravity will permit measurements within two additional decades in reduced temperatures beyond the best gravity-free data obtained in Earth-bound experiments.

Hahn, Inseob↗