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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Opportunities for wave energy in bulk power system operations

Wave energy resources have high, yet largely untapped potential as candidate generation technology. In this paper, we perform a data-driven analysis to characterize the impact of wave energy integration on bulk-scale power systems and market operations. Through data-driven sensitivity studies centered on an optimization-based production cost modeling formulation, our work characterizes the inflection point beyond which wave integration starts impacting power system operations, considering present day transmission infrastructure. Furthermore, our analysis also considers the joint effects of wave energy integration and system-wide transmission expansion. Finally, potential resilience scenarios such as wildfire-driven transmission contingencies and heat wave events are investigated, whereby the contributions of grid-integrated wave energy in alleviating the effects of the resilience events are analyzed. As our demonstration test bed, we consider a reduced-order network topology for the U.S. Western Interconnection with wave energy generation integrated at carefully selected sites across the coastal areas of Washington, Oregon, and northern California. Our results indicate that over a representative year of operations, wave energy integration systematically reduces locational marginal prices (LMPs) of energy and price volatility, especially during periods of high wave resource availability (winter months for the U.S. west coast). Average, maximum, and minimum of hourly LMPs over a typical year of operation was reduced by 2.95, 51.28, and 1.13 $\$$/MWh respectively (over a baseline scenario with no wave energy integration), when the selected network model had a total of 5000 MW wave power installed capacity during the representative year of study. The effects of wave energy integration can remain localized with existing transmission infrastructure (identified to be most pronounced in the Pacific Northwest region in the example we studied). However, with concurrent transmission expansion, the impacts of wave energy integration are likely to have a higher geographical spread. Our results also indicate that wave energy may be able to assist power system operations during resilience events such as major transmission contingencies and heat wave events, although such benefits might be dependent on factors such as proximity of affected area to wave resources, availability of adequate resource potential and adequate transmission capacity.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2026

Calibration of urban building energy model using smart meter data for district peak load prediction

Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) is a powerful approach to assessing baseline building energy performance and retrofits with new technologies across building stocks in cities. However, the accuracy of UBEM is often constrained by the limited availability of reliable data about building characteristics and operations, such as envelope efficiency levels, HVAC system performance, and end-use load patterns. Existing research has performed UBEM calibration using annual or monthly energy consumption data, which falls short when higher-resolution time series applications are needed, such as peak load prediction for utility operation planning. This study presents a new framework for calibrating building energy models at urban scale using smart meter data, targeting the accurate prediction of summer peak electricity loads to support robust grid planning. The framework first integrates various data sources to enhance baseline input assumptions for building models, and then calibrates the baseline models through a pattern-matching approach. A case study using CityBES and two years of AMI data from over 9000 residential customers in Portland, Oregon, demonstrated the workflow and its effectiveness. The calibrated models achieved a daily peak load mean absolute percentage error of 2.6 % during the heatwave in the calibration year, and 2.0 % in the validation year using another year of AMI data. Using the calibrated models, we analyzed the demand flexibility potential of the district building stock as an application of UBEM calibration. The findings affirm the appropriate use of UBEM for peak electric load forecasting and demand side management at the utility distribution system level.

AMI data↗
DOE OSTI2022

Biotic predictors improve species distribution models for invasive plants in Western U.S. Forests at high but not low spatial resolutions

Invasions by non-native plants threaten forest health and sustainability. The ability to predict areas at greatest risk to invasion is essential for informing both monitoring and management of invasive species. Species distribution models (SDMs) are often used to identify environmental correlates of a species’ occurrence and predict geographic areas that may be suitable for its presence and are commonly constructed using solely abiotic predictors. However, mounting evidence implies that not including biotic predictors in SDMs may yield less accurate models at some resolutions typical of landscape-scale models, although this possibility has rarely been evaluated in invasive plants. In this study, we determined whether including descriptors of the biotic environment improved the accuracy of SDMs built at five decreasing spatial resolutions for infestations of five common invasive plants in forests of California, Oregon, and Washington, USA and described environmental correlates of each species’ presence. Predictors of occurrence often echoed those identified in previous studies of the focal species, indicating that our models accurately identified important environmental drivers of occurrence. Including biotic predictors in the SDMs consistently improved model accuracy only at the highest resolution we examined, which may be due to the spatial scale at which biotic interactions primarily act to constrain species’ distributions, the particular biotic predictors we used in our models, or correlations between attributes of the abiotic and biotic environment. This finding suggests that, while the practice of building SDMs using abiotic predictors alone may generally yield models whose accuracy does not differ substantially from those that also include biotic predictors, the effects of biotic interactions on the distribution of invasive plants in forests may be detectable at larger scales than previously thought.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Range-wide population assessments for subalpine fir indicate widespread disturbance-driven decline

Subalpine forests in western North America are threatened by rapid climate change, increased activity by endemic and exotic insects and diseases, and changing wildfire regimes. The interactive effects of these stressors have resulted in pronounced population declines in many subalpine tree species; however, a systematic assessment of the status and trends of subalpine forests is lacking. Subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) is a widespread species across the western United States, with documented population declines in many parts of its distribution. Here we use subalpine fir as an initial leverage point to build a more complete understanding of subalpine forest baseline conditions and responses to environmental change. Specifically, we leverage the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database to (1) ask how subalpine fir populations are changing across the species’ distribution in the western US, (2) assess the drivers of recent subalpine fir population trends, and (3) explore whether those changes imply generalized species-wide and/or system-wide decline. We found that subalpine fir abundance and basal area are declining concurrently across ~ 62% of the species’ distribution, and increasing across ~ 19%. Range-wide, we estimated 25.02 ± 2.74 % subalpine fir mortality between 2000 and 2009 and 2010–2019 FIA inventory periods, with higher mortality concentrated in the eastern Oregon Cascades, central Idaho, and parts of southern Colorado. High regeneration density did not predict positive population trajectories, which were instead associated with higher rates of adult recruitment. While the importance of different mortality agents varied substantially between ecoregions, 83.4% of total range-wide mortality was related to fire or biological disturbance. Declining subalpine fir basal area coincided with declines in the basal area of other co-occurring tree species in 39% of subalpine forest area, and with increases in conspecific basal area in 22% of forest area. Fire disturbance was the single largest cause of subalpine fir mortality; however, even where subalpine fir fire mortality was high, mortality among other species was primarily caused by insects. In conclusion, our results suggest that subalpine fir declines across large portions of the western United States are driven by forest disturbance, and that declines in subalpine fir populations may be indicative of negative change in subalpine forest systems broadly.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Gigaton commercial-scale carbon storage and mineralization potential in stacked Columbia River basalt reservoirs

This work presents a detailed supercritical CO 2 storage resource estimation for the stacked basalt reservoirs in the Grande Ronde Basalt of the Columbia River Basalt Group in eastern Washington and Oregon. The assessment aims to derisk the commercialization potential of geologic carbon storage in basalt by leveraging both structural and mineralization trapping of CO 2 in basalt. The structural closures formed by anticlinal ridges and synclinal valleys in Yakima Fold Belt are excellent physical traps to accommodate injected supercritical CO 2 . Rigorous hydraulic testing, well logs and simulation results from the Wallula Basalt Pilot #1 well showed the occurrence of 17 suitable permeable injection zones (up to 2,496 mD) intercalated with dense seals (~2.6E-10 mD) in the Grand Ronde Basalt. In addition, geochemical studies showed fast reactions between supercritical CO 2 and dissolved basalt minerals to form stable carbonates. In conclusion, our calculation indicates up to 40 gigatons (P90) of mineralization storage resources exist in the Grande Ronde Basalt reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydrologic connectivity and dynamics of solute transport in a mountain stream: Insights from a long-term tracer test and multiscale transport modeling informed by machine learning

The movement of solutes in a watershed is a complex process with multiple interactions and feedbacks across spatial and temporal scales. Modeling the dynamics of solute transport along diverse hydrologic pathways within watersheds – from hillslopes to stream channels and in and out of the hyporheic zones – is challenging but critically important, as these processes integrate and contribute to the biogeochemical functioning of the river corridor up to the river network scale. Here we use results from a long-term network-scale tracer test at the H.J. Andrews experimental forest in western Cascade Mountains, Oregon, USA to inform a multiscale framework for transport in stream corridors. The framework uses a Lagrangian-based subgrid model to represent the effects of hyporheic exchange flow and advective transport at stream network scales. The spatially and temporally resolved stream discharge needed for the transport model is imputed across the river system by an entity-aware long short-term memory network. Modeled concentrations show good agreements with the observations and exhibit power scaling laws indicative of a very wide range of timescales over which hyporheic exchange flow occurs. Our results demonstrate a data-informed modeling framework that links dynamical processes occurring at small scales to a network context to help understand how changes at reach scale cascade into network-scale effects, providing a useful tool for sustainable river basin management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigation of thermal hydraulic behavior of the High Temperature Test Facility's lower plenum via large eddy simulation

A high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis was performed using the Large Eddy Simulation (LES) model for the lower plenum of the High–Temperature Test Facility (HTTF), a ¼ scale test facility of the modular high temperature gas-cooled reactor (MHTGR) managed by Oregon State University. In most next–generation nuclear reactors, thermal stress due to thermal striping is one of the risks to be curiously considered. This is also true for HTGRs, especially since the exhaust helium gas temperature is high. In order to evaluate these risks and performance, organizations in the United States led by the OECD NEA are conducting a thermal hydraulic code benchmark for HTGR, and the test facility used for this benchmark is HTTF. HTTF can perform experiments in both normal and accident situations and provide high-quality experimental data. However, it is difficult to provide sufficient data for benchmarking through experiments, and there is a problem with the reliability of CFD analysis results based on Reynolds–averaged Navier–Stokes to analyze thermal hydraulic behavior without verification. To solve this problem, high-fidelity 3-D CFD analysis was performed using the LES model for HTTF. It was also verified that the LES model can properly simulate this jet mixing phenomenon via a unit cell test that provides experimental information. As a result of CFD analysis, the lower the dependency of the sub-grid scale model, the closer to the actual analysis result. In the case of unit cell test CFD analysis and HTTF CFD analysis, the volume-averaged sub-grid scale model dependency was calculated to be 13.0% and 9.16%, respectively. As a result of HTTF analysis, quantitative data of the fluid inside the HTTF lower plenum was provided in this paper. As a result of qualitative analysis, the temperature was highest at the center of the lower plenum, while the temperature fluctuation was highest near the edge of the lower plenum wall. The power spectral density of temperature was analyzed via fast Fourier transform (FFT) for specific points on the center and side of the lower plenum. FFT results did not reveal specific frequency-dominant temperature fluctuations in the center part. It was confirmed that the temperature power spectral density (PSD) at the top increased from the center to the wake. The vortex was visualized using the well-known scalar Q-criterion, and as a result, the closer to the outlet duct, the greater the influence of the mainstream, so that the inflow jet vortex was dissipated and mixed at the top of the lower plenum. Additionally, FFT analysis was performed on the support structure near the corner of the lower plenum with large temperature fluctuations, and as a result, it was confirmed that the temperature fluctuation of the flow did not have a significant effect near the corner wall. In addition, the vortices generated from the lower plenum to the outlet duct were identified in this paper. It is considered that the quantitative and qualitative results presented in this paper will serve as reference data for the benchmark.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A PIPS + SrI 2 (Eu) detector for atmospheric radioxenon monitoring

The PIPS–SrI 2 (Eu) is a prototype atmospheric radioxenon detection system designed at Oregon State University in support of international efforts towards monitoring clandestine nuclear weapon testing activities. This detector aims to address some shortcomings found in currently deployed beta–gamma atmospheric radioxenon detection systems, such as lackluster energy resolution and memory effect, by employing modern detection materials and readout. The system uses a PIPSBox, a silicon-based gas cell, for electron detection, and a pair of ultrabright, D-shaped SrI 2 (Eu) scintillators coupled to silicon photomultipliers for photon detection. A custom eight-channel digital pulse processor equipped with a field programmable gate-array (FPGA) identifies electron–photon coincidences between the volumes in near real-time. Gas samples of the four radioxenon isotopes of interest were independently measured with the PIPS–SrI 2 (Eu) detection system to determine energy resolution and efficiency. Application of FPGA-based coincidence discrimination in near real-time reduced the ambient background count rate by 95.85 ± 0.04%. Using parameters from the Xenon International gas processing unit and assuming a blank sample and zero memory effect the minimum detectable concentrations (MDCs) for the isotopes were calculated to be 0.12 ± 0.03, 0.27 ± 0.05, 0.15 ± 0.02, and 1.00 ± 0.08 mBq/m 3 air for 131m Xe, 133 Xe, 133m Xe, and 135 Xe, respectively. These MDC estimates compare well with other radioxenon detection systems employed in the International Monitoring System (IMS) and indicate that the PIPS–SrI 2 (Eu) is in compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban-Treaty Organization (CTBTO) sensitivity requirement of ≤ 1 mBq/m 3 for 133 Xe.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Thermal hydraulic analysis of the AFIP-7 irradiation test in the Advanced test Reactor – Model correlation and performance evaluation

We report as a system level code, RELAP5 is widely used in the nuclear field for the reactor hydraulic analysis. In the component/experimental level, it is frequently employed as well. This paper demonstrates that the RELAP5 flow simulation of the AFIP-7 irradiation experiment which has a complicated 3D geometry/flow path deviates by ~28% from the flow evaluation through a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation, which has been validated against a flow test performed at Oregon State University. Thermal safety compliance analysis of an experiment planned to be irradiated in the Advanced Test Reactor is usually performed using the finite element analysis code, Abaqus. This research reveals the disadvantages of the Abaqus simulation in the flow instability and departure from nucleate boiling evaluations via a conjugate heat transfer analysis of the AFIP-7 irradiation experiment. As a result, a detailed CFD simulation is suggested for irradiation experiments with complicated flow paths, rather than a simplified RELAP5 simulation or hand calculations. The validated simulation approach will be integrated with the Boehmite correlations to investigate the oxide growth prediction on the fuel cladding in Part II of this research.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Holistic Marine Energy Resource Assessments: A Wave and Offshore Wind Perspective of Metocean Conditions

Offshore wind and wave energy resources are possibly the last significantly untapped renewable energy resource, and could play a significant role in mitigating the worst impacts of climate change via the generation of renewable electricity. However, offshore wind and wave energy resource assessments have been conducted as independent parallel processes, with little interaction with regard to best practices, lessons learnt, or opportunities to create compatible methodologies for future utilization by the broader marine energy sector. Based on the latest technical specifications from the International Electrotechnical Commission, and the highest fidelity publicly available datasets, the offshore wind and wave conditions at the PacWave site off Oregon, USA were quantified. The results clearly show a significant untapped energy resource an annual average wave energy flux of ~35kW/m and a mean average wind speed of 7.8m/s. The offshore wind and wave energy resources both show significant seasonal variation, with offshore wind also featuring a consistent daily profile during summer. Finally, opportunities and challenges associated with developing a holistic assessment of offshore marine energy resources were discussed and recommendations provided.

Robertson, Bryson↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integration of a physics-based direct normal irradiance ($\mathrm{DNI}$) model to enhance the National Solar Radiation Database ($\mathrm{NSRDB}$)

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is an extensively used dataset that furnishes satellite-retrieved solar resource data across the United States and an expanding list of other countries. Although the NSRDB uses a physical model to compute global horizontal irradiance (GHI), it currently employs an empirical approach based on surface observations to estimate cloudy-sky direct normal irradiance (DNI). Recently, a new physics-based approach, known as the Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications with DNI (FARMS-DNI), was developed to improve DNI forecasting. FARMS-DNI integrates direct and scattered solar radiances within the circumsolar region, resulting in improved day-ahead forecasting of DNI by incorporating it into the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Solar extensions (WRF-Solar). This study incorporates FARMS-DNI into the NSRDB algorithm to produce high-spatiotemporal-resolution DNI data from satellite data. The accuracy of the NSRDB based on FARMS-DNI is analyzed using surface observations from 19 sites situated within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Surface Radiation Budget (SURFRAD) and Solar Radiation (SOLRAD) networks, the University of Oregon (UO) network, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) network, and at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The results demonstrate that FARMS-DNI reduces the significant overestimation of DNI in the conventional NSRDB at all surface sites, particularly in cloud overcast conditions classified using both satellite retrievals and surface observations. Consequently, this new model can effectively improve the overall accuracy of the NSRDB. The results also suggest that further improvement of DNI estimates at individual time steps, however, requires advanced satellite techniques and precise identification of clouds and retrieval of cloud properties.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Chemical Imaging of Atmospheric Biomass Burning Particles from North American Wildfires

The effects of biomass burning aerosols (BBA) on radiative forcing and cloud formation depend on chemical composition and the internal structures of individual particles within smoke plumes. To improve our understanding of the chemical and physical properties of BBA emitted at different times of the day and their evolution during atmospheric aging, we conducted a study as a part of the Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality field campaign. Particle samples were collected onboard a research aircraft from smoke plumes from a wildfire in eastern Oregon during late afternoon and nighttime flights on August 28, 2019. A time-resolved aerosol collector was used to collect samples on substrates for offline spectromicroscopic imaging to investigate the single-particle characteristics of BBA particles. Approximately 20,400 individual particles from 10 selected samples were analyzed using computer-controlled scanning electron microscopy coupled with energy-dispersive X-ray microanalysis, revealing their elemental composition, morphology, and viscosity. Elemental microanalysis indicated that aged potassium is likely found in the form of K 2 SO 4 , KNO 3 , and possible K-organic salts. Further chemical speciation and carbon bonding mapping within individual particles were conducted using synchrotron-based scanning transmission X-ray microscopy (STXM) coupled with near edge X-ray absorption fine structure (NEXAFS) spectroscopy. Real-time, water-soluble light absorption measurements were acquired using a particle-into-liquid sampler instrument coupled to a liquid waveguide capillary cell and total organic analyzer. In the late afternoon samples, 65% of the total particle number population consisted entirely of organic components, compared to 46% in the nighttime particles. These differences were attributed to discrepancies in composition at the time of emission and to the daytime condensation and accumulation of photochemically formed secondary organic material on existing BBA particles, a process that halts at night. Microscopy images indicated that particle viscosity was lower in the nighttime particles (<10 1 Pa·s), likely due to increased relative humidity and a higher contribution from hygroscopic inorganic components. The chemical heterogeneity of individual particles was quantified using STXM-derived mixing state parameters. The nature of carbon bonding within individual particles was inferred from the extent of carbon sp 2 hybridization derived from NEXAFS spectra. Average percentages of sp 2 hybridization range between 40% and 60%, with no noticeable differences between late afternoon and nighttime flights. These findings were compared with the online optical properties of both late afternoon and nighttime smoke plumes, providing valuable insights into the complex relationship between chemical composition and optical properties of BBA particles at different times of the day.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Human Mobility to Parks Under the COVID-19 Pandemic and Wildfire Seasons in the Western and Central United States

In 2020, people's health suffered a great crisis under the dual effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the extensive, severe wildfires in the western and central United States. Parks, including city, national, and cultural parks, offer a unique opportunity for people to maintain their recreation behaviors following the social distancing protocols during the pandemic. However, massive forest wildfires in western and central US, producing harmful toxic gases and smoke, pose significant threats to human health and affect their recreation behaviors and mobility to parks. In this study, we employed the geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) Models to investigate how COVID-19 and wildfires jointly shaped human mobility to parks, regarding the number of visits per capita, dwell time, and travel distance to parks, during June - September 2020. We detected strong correlations between visitations and COVID-19 incidence in southern Montana, western Wyoming, Colorado, and Utah before August. However, the pattern was weakened over time, indicating the decreasing trend of the degree of concern regarding the pandemic. Moreover, more park visits and lower dwell time were found in parks further away from wildfires and less air pollution in Washington, Oregon, California, Colorado, and New Mexico, during the wildfire season, suggesting the potential avoidance of wildfires when visiting parks. This study provides important insights on people's responses in recreation and social behaviors when facing multiple severe crises that impact their health and wellbeing, which could support the preparation and mitigation of the health impacts from future pandemics and natural hazards.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spatiotemporal Controls on the Delivery of Dissolved Organic Matter to Streams Following a Wildfire

Warmer and drier climate has contributed to increased occurrence of large, high severity wildfires in the Pacific Northwest, drawing concerns for water quality and ecosystem recovery. While nutrient fluxes generally increase post-fire, the composition of organic matter (OM) transported to streams immediately following a fire is poorly constrained, yet can play an integral role in downstream water quality and biogeochemistry. Here, we quantified the spatiotemporal patterns of dissolved OM (DOM) chemistry for five streams burned by wildfires in Oregon, USA in 2020. We sampled over a 24-hour storm event one month after the fire, revealing variable temporal behavior in DOM dynamics. DOM chemistry was directly related with burn severity spatially. Specifically, nitrogen and aromatic character of DOM increased in streams burned at greater severity. Our results suggest a spatial overprinting of DOM dynamics immediately following fire activity and highlight a key gap in our knowledge of post-fire DOM transport to streams.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity Analysis of Wind and Turbulence Predictions With Mesoscale‐Coupled Large Eddy Simulations Using Ensemble Machine Learning

Abstract Coupling between mesoscale models and large‐eddy simulation (LES) models is increasingly used to more realistically represent the wide range of scales of atmospheric motions affecting boundary layer winds and turbulence that need to be simulated accurately for applications such as wind energy. However, such mesoscale‐to‐microscale coupled modeling frameworks are potentially affected by a large number of uncertain closure parameters. Here, we investigate the sensitivity associated with six closure parameters related to a 1.5‐order subgrid‐scale turbulence closure for an ensemble of mesoscale‐coupled LES. The simulations are performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting model nested from horizontal resolutions of greater than a kilometer down to tens of meters. Closure parameters are varied to generate perturbed parameter ensembles for two case studies of highly sheared, convective boundary layers observed in the Columbia Basin of Oregon and Washington during the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project. Machine learning algorithms are used to explore the sensitivity of LES predictions, considering the effects of the perturbed physical parameters alongside categorical factors such as the case study identity, measurement location, and LES resolution. For the conditions we examine, a single parameter, the eddy viscosity coefficient, is the dominant source of parametric sensitivity and its importance is comparable to the categorical factors for several of the simulation response variables we examine.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Thermally Significant Fluid Seepage Through Thick Sediment on the Juan de Fuca Plate Entering the Cascadia Subduction Zone

We use heat flux measurements colocated with seismic reflection profiles over a buried basement high on the Juan de Fuca plate ∼25 km seaward of the deformation front offshore Oregon to test for the presence of hydrothermal circulation in the oceanic crust. We also revisit heat flux data crossing a buried basement high ∼25 km seaward of the deformation front ∼150 km north, offshore Washington. Seafloor heat flux is inversely correlated with sediment thickness, consistent with vigorous hydrothermal circulation in the basement aquifer homogenizing temperatures at the top of the basement. Heat flux immediately above the summit of the basement highs is greater than expected solely from conduction. Fluid seepage at rates of ∼2.6–5.4 cm yr −1 in a 1–1.5 km-wide conduit through ∼800–1,300 m thick sediment sections above these basement highs can explain these observations. Observations of thermally significant fluid seepage through sediment >225 m thick on oceanic crust are unprecedented. High sediment permeability, high fluid overpressure in the basement, or a combination of both is required to drive fluid seepage at the observed rates. We infer that rapid seepage occurs because the basement highs rise above the low permeability basal sediment with their tops protruding into the base of high permeability Nitinat or Astoria Fan sediment. Seepage from basement highs penetrating into the submarine fans can affect the thermal state of crust entering the subduction zone.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effects of vessel traffic and ocean noise on gray whale stress hormones

Human use of marinescapes is rapidly increasing, especially in populated nearshore regions where recreational vessel traffic can be dense. Marine animals can have a physiological response to such elevated human activity that can impact individual health and population dynamics. To understand the physiological impacts of vessel traffic on baleen whales, we investigated the adrenal stress response of gray whales (Eschrichtius robustus) to variable vessel traffic levels through an assessment of fecal glucocorticoid metabolite (fGC) concentrations. This analysis was conducted at the individual level, at multiple temporal scales (1–7 days), and accounted for factors that may confound fGC: sex, age, nutritional status, and reproductive state. Data were collected in Oregon, USA, from June to October of 2016–2018. Results indicate significant correlations between fGC, month, and vessel counts from the day prior to fecal sample collection. Furthermore, we show a significant positive correlation between vessel traffic and underwater ambient noise levels, which indicates that noise produced by vessel traffic may be a causal factor for the increased fGC. This study increases knowledge of gray whale physiological response to vessel traffic and may inform management decisions regarding regulations of vessel traffic activities and thresholds near critical whale habitats.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions and carbon intensity of U.S. fuel use and projection for the next 10 years-based on built capacity and expansion plans

The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 supports biofuel production expansion through the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit, replacing previous 40A and 40B credits. This follows on the Renewable Fuel Standard from the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and its expansion in 2007. States like California, Oregon, and Washington also offer clean fuel credits. Meanwhile, federal agencies, including the U.S. Department of Energy, have advanced alternative fuel technologies through research and development funding. The surging interest in the biofuel industry has spurred the demand for biofuel supplies in the markets, although achieving profitability for advanced biofuels and low-carbon e-fuels remains challenging. This study aims to track U.S. alternative fuel production capacity expansion plans over the next 10 years and estimate impacts on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. By tracking built capacity and industry announcements of planned expansion, this study complements other studies which use models to predict changes in energy technologies and the associated GHG implications. Modeled projections of future technologies are often criticized for over or underestimating the cost and potential role of new technologies. The study focuses on sustainable aviation fuel, renewable diesel, ethanol, biodiesel, and renewable natural gas. Using facility-level data, we conducted a bottom-up analysis linking biofuel production pathways with corresponding pathways and parameterizations in the Argonne R&D GREET model. Results indicate that biofuel capacity could reach 3.8 exajoules in 2035, potentially reducing U.S. GHG emissions by 179 million tonnes, including the full life cycle. This corresponds to a 20% reduction in transportation and 5% in industry sector emissions by 2035, or a 3.6% reduction in economy-wide emissions. Overall, this study shows that while biofuel production capacity in the U.S. is expanding, the capacities remain limited compared to fuel demand. Uncertainty regarding the durability and extension of incentives may be dampening the pace of growth. Meanwhile, demonstrating the commercial potential for alternative fuels and climbing the learning curve for new technologies could lead to an increased pace of expansion in later years. This study offers insights for bioenergy stakeholders, highlighting biofuel technologies' contribution to U.S. energy system and emissions reduction over time based on producers' plans.

Biofuel Producers↗