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NASA NTRS2005

You Can't Get There From Here! Problems and Potential Solutions in Developing New Classes of Complex Systems

The explosion of capabilities and new products within the sphere of Information Technology (IT) has fostered widespread, overly optimistic opinions regarding the industry, based on common but unjustified assumptions of quality and correctness of software. These assumptions are encouraged by software producers and vendors, who at this late date have not succeeded in finding a way to overcome the lack of an automated, mathematically sound way to develop correct systems from requirements. NASA faces this dilemma as it envisages advanced mission concepts that involve large swarms of small spacecraft that will engage cooperatively to acheve science goals. Such missions entail levels of complexity that beg for new methods for system development far beyond today's methods, which are inadequate for ensuring correct behavior of large numbers of interacting intelligent mission elements. New system development techniques recently devised through NASA-led research will offer some innovative approaches to achieving correctness in complex system development, including autonomous swarm missions that exhibit emergent behavior, as well as general software products created by the computing industry.

Hinchey, Michael G.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Single Particle Damage Events in Candidate Star Camera Sensors

Si charge coupled devices (CCDs) are currently the preeminent detector in star cameras as well as in the near ultraviolet (uv) to visible wavelength region for astronomical observations in space and in earth-observing space missions. Unfortunately, the performance of CCDs is permanently degraded by total ionizing dose (TID) and displacement damage effects. TID produces threshold voltage shifts on the CCD gates and displacement damage reduces the charge transfer efficiency (CTE), increases the dark current, produces dark current nonuniformities and creates random telegraph noise in individual pixels. In addition to these long term effects, cosmic ray and trapped proton transients also interfere with device operation on orbit. In the present paper, we investigate the dark current behavior of CCDs - in particular the formation and annealing of hot pixels. Such pixels degrade the ability of a CCD to perform science and also can present problems to the performance of star camera functions (especially if their numbers are not correctly anticipated). To date, most dark current radiation studies have been performed by irradiating the CCDs at room temperature but this can result in a significantly optimistic picture of the hot pixel count. We know from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) that high dark current pixels (so-called hot pixels or hot spikes) accumulate as a function of time on orbit. For example, the HST Advanced Camera for Surveys/Wide Field Camera instrument performs monthly anneals despite the loss of observational time, in order to partially anneal the hot pixels. Note that the fact that significant reduction in hot pixel populations occurs for room temperature anneals is not presently understood since none of the commonly expected defects in Si (e.g. divacancy, E center, and A-center) anneal at such a low temperature. A HST Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) CCD manufactured by E2V was irradiated while operating at -83C and the dark current studied as a function of temperature while the CCD was warmed to a sequence of temperatures up to a maximum of +30C. The device was then cooled back down to -83 and re-measured. Hot pixel populations were tracked during the warm-up and cool-down. Hot pixel annealing began below 40C and the anneal process was largely completed before the detector reached +3OC. There was no apparent sharp temperature dependence in the annealing. Although a large fraction of the hot pixels fell below the threshold to be counted as a hot pixel, they nevertheless remained warmer than the remaining population. The details of the mechanism for the formation and annealing of hot pixels is not presently understood, but it appears likely that hot pixels are associated with displacement damage occurring in high electric field regions.

Marshall, Paul↗
NASA NTRS2005

Putting EVM to the Test

IN MANY INSTANCES THERE IS NO FOREWARNING; SCHEDULES slip, costs soar, and the project manager is faced with the near impossible task of explaining why each impact occurred. With contractors performing the majority of the work, the management job can become even more obscure. The simple lack of proximity to the contractor can limit effective communication. Add to that a mixture of cultural differences and a desire for the contractor to portray the most optimistic view of their performance, and you create an even more difficult task for the project manager. This was the scenario when the Habitat Holding Rack (HHR) manager at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), Stacy Counts, was introduced to the overall concept of Earned Value Management (EVM). Faced with increased costs (which eventually resulted in decreased scope of the project), continued schedule slides, and several technical anomalies, she was looking for a way to gain a better handle on the project performance. As a component of the Space Station Biological Research Program (SSBRP), the HHR project is an integral piece of the Program content. The HHR is the first rack hardware to be delivered for the Program and has therefore been the first rack to move through the trials of test and verification-documenting anomalies and technical difficulties that will benefit the other SSBRP rack projects. For these reasons, the HHR maintained high visibility throughout the manufacturing and assembly process, continuing through test and verification activities. Needless to say, the higher visibility emphasized the need for improved performance on this project. And to improve project performance, Stacy first had to figure out how to measure the cost, schedule and technical objectives effectively.

Kerby, Jerald↗
NASA NTRS2006

Building Complex Systems

The explosion of capabilities and new products within ICT (Information and Communication Technology) has fostered widespread, overly optimistic opinions regarding the industry, based on common but unjustified assumptions of quality and correctness of software. These assumptions are encouraged by software producers and vendors, who have not succeeded in finding a way to overcome the lack of an automated, mathematically sound way to develop correct systems from requirements. NASA faces this dilemma as it envisages advanced mission concepts in future exploration missions, which may well be the most ambitious computer-based systems ever developed. Such missions entail levels of complexity that beg for new methods for system development. NASA-led research in such areas as sensor networks, formal methods, autonomic computing, and requirements-based programming (to name but a few) will offer some innovative approaches to achieving correctness in complex system development.

Hinchey, Mike↗
NASA NTRS2006

The Ebb and Flow of Tidal Science, and the Impact of Satellite Altimetry

In the years immediately preceding the launches of Geosat and Topex/Poseidon, tidal science had lapsed into a period of uncertainty and discouragement, brought about by the failure of once-exciting new ideas that eventually proved overly optimistic. A long list of outstanding problems presented themselves, but progress had reached a "low water mark". What was lacking was a high-quality global dataset of tidal measurements, which satellite altimetry -- and especially Topex/Poseidon -- provided. With these data in hand, a "flood tide" of marked progress resulted. In this paper we review some of that progress. An important area of progress, with potentially important implications for other areas of physical oceanography, falls under the topic of "energy dissipation." With precise global constraints provided by altimetry -- combined with precise laser tracking of the altimeter, other geodetic satellites like Lageos, as well as the moon -- the planetary energy budgets of both Earth and ocean tides are now well determined. Moreover, the local energy balances, and thus local estimates of tidal dissipation, have now been mapped, although somewhat coarsely, throughout the ocean. This work has pointed to internal-tide generation in the deep ocean as the once missing sink of tidal energy, and has led to a plethora of new observational and theoretical studies of internal tides, and their role in vertical mixing of the deep ocean. The discovery that internal tides, or some part of them, can be directly mapped with an altimeter opens new lines of research on this topic. Low-mode internal tides have been found, at least in some regions, to propagate several thousand kilometers across open ocean. The study of such waves with altimetry gives us a global view heretofore unattainable, allowing strong observational constraints to be placed on possible ocean mixing processes, such as subharmonic instabilities.

Ray, Richard↗
NASA NTRS2005

Life-Cycle Cost/Benefit Assessment of Expedite Departure Path (EDP)

This report presents a life-cycle cost/benefit assessment (LCCBA) of Expedite Departure Path (EDP), an air traffic control Decision Support Tool (DST) currently under development at NASA. This assessment is an update of a previous study performed by bd Systems, Inc. (bd) during FY01, with the following revisions: The life-cycle cost assessment methodology developed by bd for the previous study was refined and calibrated using Free Flight Phase 1 (FFP1) cost information for Traffic Management Advisor (TMA, or TMA-SC in the FAA's terminology). Adjustments were also made to the site selection and deployment scheduling methodology to include airspace complexity as a factor. This technique was also applied to the benefit extrapolation methodology to better estimate potential benefits for other years, and at other sites. This study employed a new benefit estimating methodology because bd s previous single year potential benefit assessment of EDP used unrealistic assumptions that resulted in optimistic estimates. This methodology uses an air traffic simulation approach to reasonably predict the impacts from the implementation of EDP. The results of the costs and benefits analyses were then integrated into a life-cycle cost/benefit assessment.

Wang, Jianzhong Jay↗
NASA NTRS2006

Development of a Liner Design Methodology and Relevant Results of Acoustic Suppression in the Farfield for Mixer-Ejector Nozzles

We have developed a process to predict noise field interior to the ejector and in the farfield for any liner design for a mixer-ejector of arbitrary scale factor. However, a number of assumptions, not verified for the current application, utilized in this process, introduce uncertainties in the final result, especially, on a quantitative basis. The normal impedance model for bulk with perforated facesheet is based on homogeneous foam materials of low resistivity. The impact of flow conditions for HSCT application as well as the impact of perforated facesheet on predicted impedance is not properly accounted. Based on the measured normal impedance for deeper bulk samples (i.e., 2.0 in.) the predicted reactance is much higher compared to the data at frequencies above 2 kHz for T-foam and 200 ppi SiC. The resistance is under predicted at lower frequencies (below 4 kHz) for these samples. Thus, the use of such predicted data in acoustic suppression is likely to introduce inaccuracies. It should be noted that the impedance prediction methods developed recently under liner technology program are not utilized in the studies described in this report due to the program closeout. Acoustic suppression prediction is based on the uniform flow and temperature conditions in a two-sided treated constant area rectangular duct. In addition, assumptions of equal energy per mode noise field and interaction of all frequencies with the treated surface for the entire ejector length may not be accurate. While, the use of acoustic transfer factor minimizes the inaccuracies associated with the prediction for a known test case, the assumption of the same factor for other liner designs and with different linear scale factor ejectors seems to be very optimistic. As illustrated in appendix D that the predicted noise suppression for LSM-1 is lower compared to the measured data is an indication of the above argument. However, the process seems to be more reliable when used for the same scale models for different liner designs as demonstrated for Gen. 1 mixer-ejectors.

Salikuddin, M.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Frozen Chemistry Effects on Nozzle Performance Simulations

Simulations of exhaust nozzle flows are typically conducted assuming the gas is calorically perfect, and typically modeled as air. However the gas inside a real nozzle is generally composed of combustion products whose thermodynamic properties may differ. In this study, the effect of gas model assumption on exhaust nozzle simulations is examined. The three methods considered model the nozzle exhaust gas as calorically perfect air, a calorically perfect exhaust gas mixture, and a frozen exhaust gas mixture. In the latter case the individual non-reacting species are tracked and modeled as a gas which is only thermally perfect. Performance parameters such as mass flow rate, gross thrust, and thrust coefficient are compared as are mean flow and turbulence profiles in the jet plume region. Nozzles which operate at low temperatures or have low subsonic exit Mach numbers experience relatively minor temperature variations inside the nozzle, and may be modeled as a calorically perfect gas. In those which operate at the opposite extreme conditions, variations in the thermodynamic properties can lead to different expansion behavior within the nozzle. Modeling these cases as a perfect exhaust gas flow rather than air captures much of the flow features of the frozen chemistry simulations. Use of the exhaust gas reduces the nozzle mass flow rate, but has little effect on the gross thrust. When reporting nozzle thrust coefficient results, however, it is important to use the appropriate gas model assumptions to compute the ideal exit velocity. Otherwise the values obtained may be an overly optimistic estimate of nozzle performance.

Yoder, Dennis A.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Bayes Analysis and Reliability Implications of Stress-Rupture Testing a Kevlar/Epoxy COPV using Temperature and Pressure Acceleration

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel (COPVs) that have survived a long service time under pressure generally must be recertified before service is extended. Sometimes lifetime testing is performed on an actual COPV in service in an effort to validate the reliability model that is the basis for certifying the continued flight worthiness of its sisters. Currently, testing of such a Kevlar49(registered TradeMark)/epoxy COPV is nearing completion. The present paper focuses on a Bayesian statistical approach to analyze the possible failure time results of this test and to assess the implications in choosing between possible model parameter values that in the past have had significant uncertainty. The key uncertain parameters in this case are the actual fiber stress ratio at operating pressure, and the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime; the former has been uncertain due to ambiguities in interpreting the original and a duplicate burst test. The latter has been uncertain due to major differences between COPVs in the data base and the actual COPVs in service. Any information obtained that clarifies and eliminates uncertainty in these parameters will have a major effect on the predicted reliability of the service COPVs going forward. The key result is that the longer the vessel survives, the more likely the more optimistic stress ratio is correct. At the time of writing, the resulting effect on predicted future reliability is dramatic, increasing it by about one nine , that is, reducing the probability of failure by an order of magnitude. However, testing one vessel does not change the uncertainty on the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime since testing several would be necessary.

Phoenix, S. Leigh↗
NASA NTRS2009

Hypervelocity Impact Performance of Open Cell Foam Core Sandwich Panel Structures

Metallic foams are a relatively new class of materials with low density and novel physical, mechanical, thermal, electrical and acoustic properties. Although incompletely characterized, they offer comparable mechanical performance to traditional spacecraft structural materials (i.e. honeycomb sandwich panels) without detrimental through-thickness channeling cells. There are two competing types of metallic foams: open cell and closed cell. Open cell foams are considered the more promising technology due to their lower weight and higher degree of homogeneity. Leading micrometeoroid and orbital debris shields (MMOD) incorporate thin plates separated by a void space (i.e. Whipple shield). Inclusion of intermediate fabric layers, or multiple bumper plates have led to significant performance enhancements, yet these shields require additional non-ballistic mass for installation (fasteners, supports, etc.) that can consume up to 35% of the total shield weight [1]. Structural panels, such as open cell foam core sandwich panels, that are also capable of providing sufficient MMOD protection, represent a significant potential for increased efficiency in hypervelocity impact shielding from a systems perspective through a reduction in required non-ballistic mass. In this paper, the results of an extensive impact test program on aluminum foam core sandwich panels are reported. The effect of pore density, and core thickness on shielding performance have been evaluated over impact velocities ranging from 2.2 - 9.3 km/s at various angles. A number of additional tests on alternate sandwich panel configurations of comparable-weight have also been performed, including aluminum honeycomb sandwich panels (see Figure 1), Nomex honeycomb core sandwich panels, and 3D aluminum honeycomb sandwich panels. A total of 70 hypervelocity impact tests are reported, from which an empirical ballistic limit equation (BLE) has been derived. The BLE is in the standard form suitable for implementation in risk analysis software, and includes the effect of panel thickness, core density, and facesheet material properties. A comparison between the shielding performance of foam core sandwich panel structures and common MMOD shielding configurations is made for both conservative (additional 35% non-ballistic mass) and optimistic (additional mass equal to 30% of bumper mass) considerations. Suggestions to improve the shielding performance of foam core sandwich panels are made, including the use of outer mesh layers, intermediate fabric/composite layers, and varying pore density.

Ryan, Shannon↗
NASA NTRS2009

Bayes Analysis and Reliability Implications of Stress-Rupture Testing a Kevlar/Epoxy COPV Using Temperature and Pressure Acceleration

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) that have survived a long service time under pressure generally must be recertified before service is extended. Flight certification is dependent on the reliability analysis to quantify the risk of stress rupture failure in existing flight vessels. Full certification of this reliability model would require a statistically significant number of lifetime tests to be performed and is impractical given the cost and limited flight hardware for certification testing purposes. One approach to confirm the reliability model is to perform a stress rupture test on a flight COPV. Currently, testing of such a Kevlar49 (Dupont)/epoxy COPV is nearing completion. The present paper focuses on a Bayesian statistical approach to analyze the possible failure time results of this test and to assess the implications in choosing between possible model parameter values that in the past have had significant uncertainty. The key uncertain parameters in this case are the actual fiber stress ratio at operating pressure, and the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime; the former has been uncertain due to ambiguities in interpreting the original and a duplicate burst test. The latter has been uncertain due to major differences between COPVs in the database and the actual COPVs in service. Any information obtained that clarifies and eliminates uncertainty in these parameters will have a major effect on the predicted reliability of the service COPVs going forward. The key result is that the longer the vessel survives, the more likely the more optimistic stress ratio model is correct. At the time of writing, the resulting effect on predicted future reliability is dramatic, increasing it by about one "nine," that is, reducing the predicted probability of failure by an order of magnitude. However, testing one vessel does not change the uncertainty on the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime since testing several vessels would be necessary.

Phoenix, S. Leigh↗
NASA NTRS2000

Space Medicine

The National Academy of Sciences Committee on Space Biology and Medicine points out that space medicine is unique among space sciences, because in addition to addressing questions of fundamental scientific interest, it must address clinical or human health and safety issues as well. Efforts to identify how microgravity affects human physiology began in earnest by the United States in 1960 with the establishment of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA's) Life Sciences program. Before the first human space missions, prediction about the physiological effects of microgravity in space ranged from extremely severe to none at all. The understanding that has developed from our experiences in space to date allows us to be guardedly optimistic about the ultimate accommodations of humans to space flight. Only by our travels into the microgravity environment of space have we begun to unravel the mysteries associated with gravity's role in shaping human physiology. Space medicine is still at its very earliest stages. Development of this field has been slow for several reasons, including the limited number of space flights, the small number of research subjects, and the competition within the life sciences community and other disciplines for flight opportunities. The physiological changes incurred during space flight may have a dramatic effect on the course of an injury or illness. These physiological changes present an exciting challenge for the field of space medicine: how to best preserve human health and safety while simultaneously deciphering the effects of microgravity on human performance. As the United States considers the future of humans in long-term space travel, it is essential that the many mysteries as to how microgravity affects human systems be addressed with vigor. Based on the current state of our knowledge, the justification is excellent indeed compelling- for NASA to develop a sophisticated capability in space medicine. Teams of physicians and scientists should be actively engaged in fundamental and applied research designed to ensure that it is safe for humans to routinely and repeatedly stay and work in the microgravity environment of space.

Pool, Sam L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPV): Developing Flight Rationale for the Space Shuttle Program

Introducing composite vessels into the Space Shuttle Program represented a significant technical achievement. Each Orbiter vehicle contains 24 (nominally) Kevlar tanks for storage of pressurized helium (for propulsion) and nitrogen (for life support). The use of composite cylinders saved 752 pounds per Orbiter vehicle compared with all-metal tanks. The weight savings is significant considering each Shuttle flight can deliver 54,000 pounds of payload to the International Space Station. In the wake of the Columbia accident and the ensuing Return to Flight activities, the Space Shuttle Program, in 2005, re-examined COPV hardware certification. Incorporating COPV data that had been generated over the last 30 years and recognizing differences between initial Shuttle Program requirements and current operation, a new failure mode was identified, as composite stress rupture was deemed credible. The Orbiter Project undertook a comprehensive investigation to quantify and mitigate this risk. First, the engineering team considered and later deemed as unfeasible the option to replace existing all flight tanks. Second, operational improvements to flight procedures were instituted to reduce the flight risk and the danger to personnel. Third, an Orbiter reliability model was developed to quantify flight risk. Laser profilometry inspection of several flight COPVs identified deep (up to 20 mil) depressions on the tank interior. A comprehensive analysis was performed and it confirmed that these observed depressions were far less than the criterion which was established as necessary to lead to liner buckling. Existing fleet vessels were exonerated from this failure mechanism. Because full validation of the Orbiter Reliability Model was not possible given limited hardware resources, an Accelerated Stress Rupture Test of a flown flight vessel was performed to provide increased confidence. A Bayesian statistical approach was developed to evaluate possible test results with respect to the model credibility and thus flight rationale for continued operation of the Space Shuttle with existing flight hardware. A non-destructive evaluation (NDE) technique utilizing Raman Spectroscopy was developed to directly measure the overwrap residual stress state. Preliminary results provide optimistic results that patterns of fluctuation in fiber elastic strains over the outside vessel surface could be directly correlated with increased fiber stress ratios and thus reduced reliability.

Kezirian, Michael T.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Heritage and Advanced Technology Systems Engineering Lessons Learned from NASA Deep Space Missions

In the design and development of complex spacecraft missions, project teams frequently assume the use of advanced technology systems or heritage systems to enable a mission or reduce the overall mission risk and cost. As projects proceed through the development life cycle, increasingly detailed knowledge of the advanced and heritage systems within the spacecraft and mission environment identifies unanticipated technical issues. Resolving these issues often results in cost overruns and schedule impacts. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Discovery & New Frontiers (D&NF) Program Office at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) recently studied cost overruns and schedule delays for 5 missions. The goal was to identify the underlying causes for the overruns and delays, and to develop practical mitigations to assist the D&NF projects in identifying potential risks and controlling the associated impacts to proposed mission costs and schedules. The study found that optimistic hardware/software inheritance and technology readiness assumptions caused cost and schedule growth for four of the five missions studied. The cost and schedule growth was not found to result from technical hurdles requiring significant technology development. The projects institutional inheritance and technology readiness processes appear to adequately assess technology viability and prevent technical issues from impacting the final mission success. However, the processes do not appear to identify critical issues early enough in the design cycle to ensure project schedules and estimated costs address the inherent risks. In general, the overruns were traceable to: an inadequate understanding of the heritage system s behavior within the proposed spacecraft design and mission environment; an insufficient level of development experience with the heritage system; or an inadequate scoping of the system-wide impacts necessary to implement an advanced technology for space flight applications. The paper summarizes the study's lessons learned in more detail and offers suggestions for improving the project's ability to identify and manage the technology and heritage risks inherent in the design solution.

Barley, Bryan↗
NASA NTRS2010

Heritage Systems Engineering Lessons from NASA Deep Space Missions

In the design and development of complex spacecraft missions, project teams frequently assume the use of advanced technology systems or heritage systems to enable a mission or reduce the overall mission risk and cost. As projects proceed through the development life cycle, increasingly detailed knowledge of the advanced and heritage systems within the spacecraft and mission environment identifies unanticipated technical issues. Resolving these issues often results in cost overruns and schedule impacts. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Discovery & New Frontiers (D&NF) Program Office at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) recently studied cost overruns and schedule delays for 5 missions. The goal was to identify the underlying causes for the overruns and delays, and to develop practical mitigations to assist the D&NF projects in identifying potential risks and controlling the associated impacts to proposed mission costs and schedules. The study found that optimistic hardware/software inheritance and technology readiness assumptions caused cost and schedule growth for all five missions studied. The cost and schedule growth was not found to be the result of technical hurdles requiring significant technology development. The projects institutional inheritance and technology readiness processes appear to adequately assess technology viability and prevent technical issues from impacting the final mission success. However, the processes do not appear to identify critical issues early enough in the design cycle to ensure project schedules and estimated costs address the inherent risks. In general, the overruns were traceable to: an inadequate understanding of the heritage system s behavior within the proposed spacecraft design and mission environment; an insufficient level of development experience with the heritage system; or an inadequate scoping of the systemwide impacts necessary to implement an advanced technology for space flight applications. The paper summarizes the study s lessons learned in more detail and offers suggestions for improving the project s ability to identify and manage the technology and heritage risks inherent in the design solution.

Barley, Bryan↗
NASA NTRS2002

Research Progress and Accomplishments on ISS

The first research payloads reached the International Space Station (ISS) more than two years ago, with research operating continuously since March 2001. Seven research racks are currently on-orbit, with three more arriving soon to expand science capabilities. Through the first five expeditions, 60 unique NASA-managed investigations from 11 nations have been supported, many continuing into later missions. More than 90,000 experiment hours have been completed, and more than 1,000 hours of crew time have been dedicated to research, numbers that grow daily. The multidisciplinary program includes research in life sciences, physical sciences, biotechnology, Earth sciences, technology demonstrations as well as commercial endeavors and educational activities. The Payload Operations and Integration Center monitors the onboard activities around the clock, working with numerous Principal Investigators and Payload Developers at their remote sites. Future years will see expansion of the station with research modules provided by the European Space Agency and Japan, which will be outfitted with additional research racks. The first research payloads arrived at ISS more than two years ago, and continuous science has been ongoing for more than one and a half years. During this time, the research capabilities have been tremendously increased, even as assembly of the overall platform continues. Despite significant challenges along the way, ISS continues to successfully support a large number of investigations in a variety of research disciplines. The results of some of the early investigations are reaching the publication stage. The near future looms with new challenges, but experience to date and dedicated efforts give reason to be optimistic that the challenges will be overcome and that new and greater successes will be added to past ones.

Roe, Lesa B.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Planning and Estimation of Operations Support Requirements

Life Cycle Cost (LCC) estimates during the proposal and early design phases, as well as project replans during the development phase, are heavily focused on hardware development schedules and costs. Operations (phase E) costs are typically small compared to the spacecraft development and test costs. This, combined with the long lead time for realizing operations costs, can lead to de-emphasizing estimation of operations support requirements during proposal, early design, and replan cost exercises. The Discovery and New Frontiers (D&NF) programs comprise small, cost-capped missions supporting scientific exploration of the solar system. Any LCC growth can directly impact the programs' ability to fund new missions, and even moderate yearly underestimates of the operations costs can present significant LCC impacts for deep space missions with long operational durations. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) D&NF Program Office at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) recently studied cost overruns and schedule delays for 5 missions. The goal was to identify the underlying causes for the overruns and delays, and to develop practical mitigations to assist the D&NF projects in identifying potential risks and controlling the associated impacts to proposed mission costs and schedules. The study found that 4 out of the 5 missions studied had significant overruns at or after launch due to underestimation of the complexity and supporting requirements for operations activities; the fifth mission had not launched at the time of the mission. The drivers behind these overruns include overly optimistic assumptions regarding the savings resulting from the use of heritage technology, late development of operations requirements, inadequate planning for sustaining engineering and the special requirements of long duration missions (e.g., knowledge retention and hardware/software refresh), and delayed completion of ground system development work. This paper updates the D&NF LCC study, looking at the operations (phase E) cost drivers in more detail and extending the study to include 2 additional missions and identifies areas for increased emphasis by project management in order to improve the fidelity of operations estimates.

Newhouse, Marilyn E.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Verifying Algorithms for Autonomous Aircraft by Simulation Generalities and Example

An open question in Air Traffic Management is what procedures can be validated by simulation where the simulation shows that the probability of undesirable events is below the required level at some confidence level. The problem is including enough realism to be convincing while retaining enough efficiency to run the large number of trials needed for high confidence. The paper first examines the probabilistic interpretation of a typical requirement by a regulatory agency and computes the number of trials needed to establish the requirement at an equivalent confidence level. Since any simulation is likely to consider only one type of event and there are several types of events, the paper examines under what conditions this separate consideration is valid. The paper establishes a separation algorithm at the required confidence level where the aircraft operates under feedback control as is subject to perturbations. There is a discussion where it is shown that a scenario three of four orders of magnitude more complex is feasible. The question of what can be validated by simulation remains open, but there is reason to be optimistic.

White, Allan L.↗