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At least 217 records · Page 12

Regional inertia dynamics of U.S. interconnections: An event-based measurement approach

Power grid inertia plays a vital role in frequency stability following large disturbances, yet its distribution across the U.S. grid is highly uneven. While interconnection-wide inertia benchmarks are useful, they can mask regional variability driven by resource mix, network coupling, and geographic separation. This paper extends event-driven inertia estimation to the regional scale using field measurements from the Frequency Monitoring Network (FNET/GridEye). Starting from balancing authority and independent system operator footprints, candidate regions are refined using a composite coherency score that combines frequency-trajectory shape similarity, timing spread, and lead/lag behavior to ensure dynamic consistency. A filtered sliding difference method (FSDM) is then used to construct regional frequency trajectories, detect disturbance onset, and compute robust regional rate-of-change of frequency (RoCoF). Regional, local, and interconnection inertia are estimated by combining RoCoF with event power imbalance, and additional indicators (regional-to-system inertia ratio and inertial-support arrival time) quantify regional-to-interconnection coupling and relative regional contributions. The method is demonstrated on eleven regions across the Eastern Interconnection (EI) and the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), with the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) used for validation. In ERCOT, estimates compared against energy management system (EMS) values achieve a mean absolute percentage error of 17.94%. WECC exhibits consistently shorter inertial-support arrival times (0.15–0.3 s) than EI (0.7–1.1 s), highlighting contrasting coupling and disturbance-propagation behavior. Overall, the results reveal pronounced spatial heterogeneity in inertia and coupling, underscoring the value of regional monitoring for both operational decision-making and long-term system planning.

Disturbance events↗

Assessment of Low Enriched Uranium Fueled Core Configurations for the Versatile Test Reactor

The Versatile Test Reactor (VTR) Program was initiated in FY-2017. This multi-laboratory effort supported by the U.S. Department of Energy has the long-term objective of completing a Versatile Test Reactor concept with associated cost and schedule estimate that enables a fully informed DOE decision within 3 years, to have a fully operating VTR by 2026 if acquisition is authorized, and to enable accelerated testing of advanced reactor fuels and materials required for advanced reactor technologies. The VTR concept uses sodium as coolant, features a core power of 300 MWth, and employs reactor-grade plutonium as fissile material in a U-Pu-10Zr fuel alloy. The reference core layout provides 10 assembly locations for high-flux irradiation testing with peak fast flux in excess of 4x1015 n/cm2-s. In order to establish a comparison point with other types of fuel, alternative core configurations were investigated using Low Enriched Uranium (LEU) fuel. The objective of this study was to modify the reference VTR core such as to use LEU fuel and assess the performance tradeoff, while retaining the same core envelope.

Stauff, Nicolas E.↗

Development of novel dynamic machine learning-based optimization of a coal-fired power plant

The increasing fraction of intermittent renewable energy in the electrical grid is resulting in coal-fired boilers now routinely ramp up and down. The current state-of-the-art operation for such boilers is to apply steady-state, neural network-based optimization to make control decisions in real-time, and this report demonstrates the feasibility of extending this to dynamic, neural network-based optimization using a long short-term memory neural network. A simplified numerical simulation of a t-fired coal boiler and supporting equipment is used to represent a real plant subjected to both steady-state, neural network-based optimization and dynamic, neural network-based optimization. Using the same intervals and a particle swarm optimization algorithm, the dynamic optimization outperforms the steady-state optimization and realizes up to 4.58% improvement in thermal efficiency. Dynamic optimization with a long short-term memory neural network is shown to both be feasible and beneficial for operation of a coal-fired boiler under changing load.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Web-Based Tools for Data-Informed Remedy Optimization: Software Theory and User Guide

This report documents the development and application of two web-based decision-support tools for pump-and-treat (P&T) groundwater remediation systems: PTOLEMY (Pump-and-Treat Optimized Location Evaluation to Maximize Yields) and OPTIMA (Optimization for Pump-and-Treat Implementation, Management, & Assessment). These tools enhance remedy design and management by leveraging advanced computational methods – specifically deep learning and multi-objective optimization – within a user-friendly platform. By integrating data-driven models with established hydrogeological knowledge, PTOLEMY and OPTIMA enable more efficient evaluation of well placement and operational strategies, helping site managers balance multiple remediation objectives under complex conditions. Both tools are implemented as modules within the SOCRATES (Suite Of Comprehensive Rapid Analysis Tools for Environmental Sites) web platform, which provides data access, visualization, and analytics to support remedy optimization across sites in the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Environmental Management complex. PTOLEMY is a rapid screening module designed to identify promising locations for new extraction wells. It employs a multi-channel three-dimensional convolutional neural network (MC3D-CNN) trained on high-fidelity simulation data to predict the relative performance (in terms of contaminant mass recovery) of potential well sites. Through an interactive web interface, PTOLEMY visualizes the probability of high performance across a site, highlighting areas where an extraction well is likely to yield above-threshold contaminant removal over a multi-year period. PTOLEMY’s map-based displays and exportable results support transparent communication of screening analyses. By focusing attention on the most favorable candidate locations, the tool augments traditional engineering judgment and physics-based modeling, providing a data informed basis for subsequent detailed evaluations. OPTIMA is a multi objective optimization module designed to find wellfield layouts and operating schedules that meet various cleanup goals. It quickly evaluates thousands of candidate setups – combinations of well locations, timing, and rates – and returns a small set of best trade-off options for comparison. At its core, OPTIMA uses a U-Net-based surrogate model – a deep-learning emulator of a groundwater flow and transport simulator – to dramatically accelerate scenario evaluations. Coupling this fast surrogate with the NSGA-II (Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II) evolutionary algorithm, OPTIMA explores a wide decision space of well locations and schedules to identify Pareto-optimal solutions that trade off key objectives (e.g., minimizing cleanup time, maximizing contaminant mass removal, and minimizing plume extent). The tool outputs a family of optimal configurations and visualizes their trade-offs (Pareto frontiers of cleanup metrics and maps of optimized well placements). Site managers can use these results to understand the range of viable strategies and to select candidate designs for more detailed verification. OPTIMA is currently under active development and not yet fully released; this guide provides early documentation to support planning and gather user feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Occupancy-Driven Stochastic Decision Framework for Ranking Commercial Building Loads

For effective integration of building operations into the evolving demand response programs of the power grid, real-time decisions concerning the use of building appliances for grid services must excel on multiple criteria, ranging from the added value to occupants' comfort to the quality of the grid services. In this paper, we present a data-driven stochastic decision-support framework to dynamically rank load control alternatives in a commercial building, addressing the needs of multiple decision criteria (e.g. occupant comfort, grid service quality) under uncertainties in occupancy patterns. We adopt a stochastic multi-criteria decision algorithm recently applied to prioritize residential on/off loads, and extend it to i) consider complex load control decisions (e.g. dimming of lights, changing zone temperature set-points) in a commercial building; and ii) systematically integrate zonal occupancy patterns to better identify short-term (and time-varying) opportunities for grid service participation. We evaluate the performance of the proposed framework for curtailment of air-conditioning, lighting, and plug-loads in a multi-zone commercial office building for a range of design choices. With the help of a prototype system that integrates an interactive \textit{Data Analytics and Visualization} frontend we demonstrate a way for the building operators to monitor and change in real-time the available flexibility in energy consumption and to develop trust in the decision recommendations by interpreting the rationale behind the ranking.

Jain, Milan↗

The field of human building interaction for convergent research and innovation for intelligent built environments

Human-Building Interaction (HBI) is a convergent field that represents the growing complexities of the dynamic interplay between human experience and intelligence within built environments. This paper provides core definitions, research dimensions, and an overall vision for the future of HBI as developed through consensus among 25 interdisciplinary experts in a series of facilitated workshops. Three primary areas contribute to and require attention in HBI research: humans (human experiences, performance, and well-being), buildings (building design and operations), and technologies (sensing, inference, and awareness). Three critical interdisciplinary research domains intersect these areas: control systems and decision making, trust and collaboration, and modeling and simulation. Finally, at the core, it is vital for HBI research to center on and support equity, privacy, and sustainability. Compelling research questions are posed for each primary area, research domain, and core principle. State-of-the-art methods used in HBI studies are discussed, and examples of original research are offered to illustrate opportunities for the advancement of HBI research.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Cadmium Telluride Photovoltaics Accelerator Consortium Solicitation: Request for Proposals Information

Cadmium telluride photovoltaics (CdTe PV) is a leading PV technology built on U.S. innovations that currently holds significant market share within domestic utility scale PV systems. In order to keep pace with a highly competitive and innovative global PV module market, CdTe manufacturing needs readily adaptable advances at the cell and module levels that simultaneously enable higher conversion efficiencies and manufacturing cost reductions without risking long-term module durability. In pursuit of this goal, the Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) has asked the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to launch and support a Consortium to accelerate domestic CdTe technology development through a competitive solicitation process. NREL will competitively select a CdTe Consortium with the goals of enhancing U.S. competitiveness and expanding domestic CdTe PV material and module production through 2030. NREL will provide coordination and oversight through development of technical scopes, review of technical proposals, subcontract support, and review of deliverables along with research support to the Consortium. The new Consortium is expected to include major U.S. companies and universities that possess strong technology development, transfer, and validation capabilities. The research and analysis output of the CdTe Consortium will inform purchasing, design, deployment, and operations decisions of companies in the domestic CdTe PV supply chain, leading to increased material and module production in the U.S.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

SMART – A Comprehensive Research and Development Program to Demonstrate Application of Machine Learning for Supporting CCS Deployment

The objective of the US Department of Energy’s SMART Initiative, i.e., Science-informed Machine Learning (ML) for Accelerating Real-Time Decisions in Subsurface Applications, is to showcase how the utilization of ML can significantly improve efficiency and effectiveness of field-scale commercial carbon storage operations. This paper will present the results from the current phase of SMART (field deployment) for demonstrating the applicability of ML-based tools and workflows for: (a) virtual learning during the pre-injection permitting phase, (b) advanced storage reservoir imaging to better characterize fractures and faults, and (c) dynamic storage reservoir modelling and optimization to inform operational decision making and visualization of system evolution.

Siriwardane, Hema↗

Potential State Regulatory Pathways to Facilitate Low-Carbon Fuels

States and the federal government are increasingly engaged in the challenges around decarbonizing the electric grid. In particular, regulators, consumers, stakeholders, and utilities recognize the need to carefully consider the role natural gas will play in a decarbonized future. A variety of technology and policy options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions associated with natural gas use are available, including energy efficiency programs, demand reduction tools, strategic electrification, and strategies to reduce emissions from natural gas production, transportation, and consumption. Low-carbon fuels – mainly renewable natural gas (RNG) and clean hydrogen – are being considered an important component of decarbonization goals. RNG and hydrogen may be able to meaningfully reduce emissions from processes independent of geologic natural gas, displacing emissions of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. Although RNG and hydrogen are not cost-competitive today with geologic natural gas and are smaller in scale and potential than other decarbonization options, they can be explored as potential critical tools to decarbonize sectors that are difficult to electrify or shift off of natural gas entirely, such as air travel, industrial processes, maritime transport, long-distance trucking, space heating on cold days, and railroads (Nadel, 2022). The role of this report is to provide informational context for state utility regulators to understand the impacts of and challenges associated with broader integration of low-carbon fuels, followed by examples of state regulatory actions taken to date to facilitate the development of low-carbon fuels. Setting clear guidance to calculate the environmental benefits of low-carbon fuels and continuing federal and state investments in research and development to reduce costs relative to fossil fuels will be important steps to take to signal the desire to grow the market for these fuels. State public utility commissions may play a key role in setting regulatory frameworks for low-carbon fuels and ensuring that ratepayer funds, if utilized, are done so to further the public interest. This report is intended to summarize decisions that states have made to date on low-carbon fuels. In the spirit of understanding the current market and sharing information, this report provides success stories, and lessons learned across states as regulators implement varying strategies to achieve decarbonization objectives while maintaining their focus on affordability, safety, and reliability of the energy system. The report begins with an introduction of the role of natural gas in the U.S. economy (Section I) and background information on natural gas use, decarbonization, and low-carbon fuels (Section II). Next, the report describes the current market by discussing the scale of current production, emissions intensity, resource potential, and costs of low-carbon fuels compared to geologic natural gas (Section III). Following these sections, the report describes four strategies states have employed to facilitate low-carbon fuels: opening exploratory dockets, approving voluntary tariffs for customers, approving interconnection tariffs for producers, and considering portfolio-wide procurement targets (Section IV). This section lists states that have taken actions in each category, citing utility filings, commission decisions, stakeholder comments, and other relevant sources. Finally, the report concludes with suggested questions regulators may wish to consider regarding low-carbon fuels, in the interest of preparing to make decisions in the future (Section V). These questions include: Are there existing regulatory or technical barriers to voluntary purchases of low-carbon fuels? Can customers work with utilities to procure low-carbon fuels; are producers able to interconnect projects without significant barriers to entry? Should the infrastructure and/or commodity costs of low-carbon fuels be socialized among all ratepayers, or borne solely by the large commercial and industrial (C&I) customers currently driving the market? Should regulated natural gas and/or electric utilities own and operate low-carbon fuel production? How should regulators consider the unique decarbonization potential of low-carbon fuels, particularly for hard-to-abate sectors, in decision-making? Is additional direction or clarity from state policymakers needed? What no-regrets approaches can help facilitate both near-term RNG development and long-term development of hydrogen and other zero-carbon fuels? We collectively wish to express our gratitude to the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management, for supporting this report and other technical assistance resources for state regulators on natural gas topics. State regulators operate under a variety of policy environments, and states have vastly different types of energy resources, infrastructure, and customers. While there is no optimal regulatory, policy, or technological solution that will be successful in every state, state regulators can benefit by exchanging lessons learned with their peers across the country. We look forward to continued engagement with our fellow commissioners, commission staff, NARUC, the U.S. Department of Energy, and other stakeholders to develop sound regulation in the public interest.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Inferred inflow forecast horizons guiding reservoir release decisions across the United States

Abstract. Medium- to long-range forecasts often guide reservoir release decisions to support water management objectives, including mitigating flood and drought risks. While there is a burgeoning field of science targeted at improving forecast products and associated decision support models, data describing how and when forecasts are applied in practice remain undeveloped. This lack of knowledge may prevent hydrological modelers from developing accurate reservoir release schemes for large-scale, distributed hydrology models that are increasingly used to assess the vulnerabilities of large regions to hydrological stress. We address this issue by estimating seasonally varying, regulated inflow forecast horizons used in the operations of more than 300 dams throughout the conterminous United States (CONUS). For each dam, we take actual forward observed inflows (perfect foresight) as a proxy for forecasted flows available to the operator and then identify for each week of the year the forward horizon that best explains the release decisions taken. Resulting “horizon curves” specify for each dam the inferred inflow forecast horizon as a function of the week of the water year. These curves are analyzed for strength of evidence for contribution of medium- to long-range forecasts in decision making. We use random forest classification to estimate that approximately 80 % of large dams and reservoirs in the US (1553±50 out of 1927 dams with at least 10 Mm3 storage capacity) adopt medium- to long-range inflow forecasts to inform release decisions during at least part of the water year. Long-range forecast horizons (more than 6 weeks ahead) are detected in the operations of reservoirs located in high-elevation regions of the western US, where snowpack information likely guides the release. A simulation exercise conducted on four key western US reservoirs indicates that forecast-informed models of reservoir operations may outperform models that neglect the horizon curve – including during flood and drought conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Projected Operational Energy Life Cycle Data Development: 2025 Update

This report documents the data sources and methods used to develop the energy life cycle data for use by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Engineering Laboratory (EL) to be used for the development of measurement science and incorporation into decision-support tools for evaluating building and facility capital investments. The data are posted separately under DOI 10.18141/2575194.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Rapid Evaluation and Response to Impacts on Critical End-Use Loads Following Natural Hazard-Driven Power Outages: A Modular and Responsive Geospatial Technology

The disparate nature of data for electric power utilities complicates the emergency recovery and response process. The reduced efficiency of response to natural hazards and disasters can extend the time that electrical service is not available for critical end-use loads, and in extreme events, leave the public without power for extended periods. This article presents a methodology for the development of a semantic data model for power systems and the integration of electrical grid topology, population, and electric distribution line reliability indices into a unified, cloud-based, serverless framework that supports power system operations in response to extreme events. An iterative and pragmatic approach to working with large and disparate datasets of different formats and types resulted in improved application runtime and efficiency, which is important to consider in real time decision-making processes during hurricanes and similar catastrophic events. This technology was developed initially for Puerto Rico, following extreme hurricane and earthquake events in 2017 and 2020, but is applicable to utilities around the world. Given the highly abstract and modular design approach, this technology is equally applicable to any geographic region and similar natural hazard events. In addition to a review of the requirements, development, and deployment of this framework, technical aspects related to application performance and response time are highlighted.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Distributed water desalination and purification systems: perspective and future directions

Distributed water treatment and desalination (DWTD) systems are critical for the development of a diverse water portfolio of the desired quality and intended use at the target location. Widespread adoption of DWTD has been hampered given the need for round-the-clock monitoring and the lack of local technical expertise for system management. However, self-adaptive operation, real-time remote monitoring, supervisory control, and asset management of DWTD systems are now feasible with the implementation of advanced local system control, cyberinfrastructure that facilitates real-time cloud-based analytics, data management, and artificial intelligence–powered decision support. Such an approach will introduce transformative virtual networks of DWTD systems to provide needed water to locations that are not served by centralized and satellite water treatment and desalination systems.

Cohen, Yoram [University of California, Los Angele↗

Safety Analytics Forecasting and Evaluation Reporting (SAFER)

The SAFER Sandbox is a web application for testing various types of data visualization tools that analyze safety data across national laboratories. By enabling the user to visualize this data through visual and textual analyses, the SAFER Sandbox helps to facilitate the research and support for the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Office of Safety, Infrastructure and Operations (NA-50). Safety data across the national laboratory complex is not currently analyzed in one location. This prohibits administrators from viewing safety data trends and making large scale decisions based on a holistic view of the data. By implementing data analytics web services such as representative text summary, noun phrase extraction and graph exploration, users can view and explore safety data based on search queries. The data visualizations in the SAFER Sandbox reveal trends and point to items of concern based on safety data. The SAFER Sandbox is a testing ground for these visualizations.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Machine Learning-Based Anomaly Detection for PMT Data Quality Monitoring in the SBN and DUNE

Maintaining high-quality detector data is essential for achieving the scientific objectives of the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Program at Fermilab. Current data quality monitoring (DQM) procedures rely primarily on threshold-based metrics and manual inspection of detector monitoring plots, making the detection of subtle or gradually developing anomalies both time-consuming and dependent on expert interpretation. This project developed and evaluated a machine-learning workflow for automatically identifying anomalous photomultiplier tube (PMT) channels in the Short-Baseline Near Detector (SBND) using optical-hit amplitude data. A Python-based analysis program was developed to process ROOT files, extract statistical features describing individual PMT amplitude distributions, and generate feature vectors for anomaly detection. These features were used to train an Isolation Forest model using data representing normal detector operation. The trained model was subsequently applied to independent detector runs to identify channels exhibiting statistically unusual behavior relative to the learned reference response. To support expert interpretation, the workflow generated complementary diagnostic products, including anomaly score distributions, normalized amplitude comparisons, decision-tree visualizations, and principal component analysis (PCA) projections. This project demonstrated the feasibility of integrating unsupervised machine learning into detector data-quality monitoring and developed a complete workflow for automated PMT performance assessment to aid expert-driven review. Beyond its technical contributions, the VFP appointment fostered a research collaboration between Aurora University and Fermilab and provided direct workforce development benefits by training the visiting faculty member in detector-scale machine-learning methods that are now being incorporated into undergraduate coursework and research. The methodology developed here provides a foundation for future applications to ProtoDUNE and other liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) detectors, contributing to ongoing efforts to improve detector reliability, reduce manual monitoring requirements, and enable scalable data quality monitoring for future large-scale neutrino experiments, including the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE).

Colón Santana, Juan A. [Unlisted, US, IL]↗

Certifying the Performance of Fixative Technologies under Open Air Demolition Activities for D and D - 20096

Department of Energy (DOE) facilities undergoing deactivation and decommissioning (D and D) activities struggle with safety concerns of residual radioactive contamination leftover after gross decontamination efforts have concluded. The positive effects of implementing fixative technologies for decommissioning and maintenance is known across the DOE complex. However, there is no standardized metric in place that quantifies the performance of these technologies such as incombustible fixative platforms that immobilize the contamination in a solid polymer material under normal operating conditions or when exposed to stressors. The primary focus of this research is to provide the empirical data necessary to properly characterize the effects of implementing fixative technologies on mitigating the release of contamination. In addition, this effort has been used to identify and establish uniform testing protocols to quantify operational parameters of fixating platforms and properly credit such systems under a variety of operational conditions and stressors that can arise during open air demolition efforts (e.g. impact, water, thermal, etc.). The established protocols will be provided to the ASTM International E10.03 Subcommittee on Radiological Protection for Decontamination and Decommissioning of Nuclear Facilities and Components for the potential of formal standardization. Attributes to be addressed during testing are material compromise from impact stress, thermal stress for incombustible fixative materials, and immobilization factors (how well an immobilizing platform is capable of retaining fixated material during thermal and impact stressors). In developing these test methods, a greater understanding of the material's behavior under anticipated and unanticipated events, such as decommissioning activities and contingency events as outlined in the Basis of Interim Operations (BIO), can be successfully characterized. There are several key components of the experimental methodology that is essential in empirically certifying fixative technologies. A surrogate contaminant with a unique signature has been utilized with the implementation of a uniform contamination process of test coupons that is quantifiable and replicable for direct fixative comparisons. A modular test chamber has also been used to apply the various stressors of interest. Collection of released contamination that includes airborne and resettled contaminant particles and analyzed using mass spectrometry. This research directly supports DOE complex-wide concerns in terms of final disposition of nuclear facilities and the considerations made during their time between ceasing facility operation and final disposition. The results of this effort aims to provide a standardized road map and logical decision flow to better facilitate fixative technologies into D and D activities required to achieve the desired facility end state. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Application of quantitative risk assessment to address stakeholder questions in geologic carbon storage

Ambitious international greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets demand a rapid transformation to a low-carbon economy. This transformation includes the accelerated adoption of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) technology. However, as with any large-scale engineering enterprise, the widespread commercial-scale deployment of geologic carbon storage (GCS) raises important questions about technology and cost-effectiveness, safety, environmental risk, and long-term liability. Effectively assessing and managing risks and liability associated with GCS projects is a key technical need throughout the project life cycle-from site selection and permitting to monitoring design, operational risk management, and post-operational site closure. This presentation highlights recent advancements in tools for quantitative risk assessment, being developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). NRAP is a multi-year, multinational laboratory research collaboration sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management. Our focus will be on these tools' applications in addressing critical stakeholder questions related to supporting permitting to ensure secure and environmentally protective storage; designing effective and efficient monitoring plans; evaluating the effectiveness of remedial actions and risk management alternatives; and informing liability assessment and investment decisions. This paper will detail the key functionality of NRAP’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), a computational framework for assessing leakage risk and containment assurance. This model features streamlined workflows for calculating leakage risk profiles, delineating risk-based area of review, and assessing contingency plans and post-injection site care requirements. ORION is an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit to help operators assess the seismic hazard at a carbon storage site. The State of Stress Analysis Tool (SOSAT), designed to assess subsurface stress conditions and evaluate geomechanical risk resulting from CO2 injection in an area of interest will also be presented. We will also introduce a prototype model to evaluate storage project costs and liability associated with risk management. The Technoeconomic and Liability Evaluation for Storage (TALES) model uses results from forecasts of leakage and induced seismicity risk to estimate the lifecycle cost of managing risk. Finally, a preliminary example of how the NRAP Risk-based Adaptive Monitoring Plan (RAMP) tool can be used to design efficient and effective site monitoring plans and estimate the detectability of fluid leakage will be provided. The relevance of these tools for addressing key stakeholder questions amidst uncertainty will be emphasized.

decision support↗

Mixed Integer Nonlinear Programming Approaches to Enhance Resiliency and Response Strategies in Critical Infrastructure

Motivation. Critical infrastructures are large, complex engineered systems that must be operated robustly under abnormal conditions resulting from natural hazards or intentional acts. For example, electric power systems must be robust to line faults, water utilities must rapidly mitigate contamination incidents, and computing networks must adapt to adversarial intrusions to protect critical information. Problem. It is difficult for decision-makers within resiliency analysis in critical infrastructure to optimize designs and develop effective response strategies that can account for uncertainties. Facing incomplete information and the sheer scope that a natural hazard or attack vector may incorporate, response can be ineffective without reliable, scalable decision support tools. These problems are intrinsically nonlinear and involve discrete decisions, and unfortunately, existing off-the-shelf mathematical programming methods cannot support optimization-based decision-making of these nonlinear at scale. Method/Approach and Results. This project emphasized development of fundamental optimization strategies that supported real- time mitigation and response for critical infrastructures. In particular, the project developed multi- tree approaches based on piecewise outer-approximations for solution of mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) problems. These techniques alternate between an MILP or MISOCP relaxation to obtain a lower bound and candidate discrete solutions and an NLP subproblem to obtain upper bounds. Using tailored relaxations based on problem structure, these methods were used to solve several key applications in resilience and response of critical infrastructure. This work resulted in two open-source, copyrighted software packages: CORAMIN (https://github.com/Coramin/Coramin) -- an object-oriented mathematical programming framework that supports tailored multi-tree algorithms for solution of large- scale mixed-integer nonlinear programming; and EGRET (Electrical Grid Research and Engineering Toolkit) (https://github.com/grid- parity-exchange/Egret) -- a declarative mathematical programming framework built upon CORAMIN and Pyomo for formulation and solution of resilience and operations problems in power grid systems. Furthermore, these tools resulted in several important published results, including the following: The first known global optimization approach that could solve the unit-commitment problem with nonlinear power flow constraints on medium-sized test problems; Improved parallel optimization-based bounds tightening and strengthening of relaxations of AC power flow constraints; and, Optimization-based approaches for improved grid resilience and use of demand response to improve grid resilience with reduction in capital requirements. Result Implications. This project developed first-of-a-kind algorithms for decision-making in critical infrastructure resilience operations and planning, as well as a next-generation toolkit for MINLP researchers. These approaches leveraged high-performance computing architectures to solve some of the largest, most challenging nonlinear discrete optimization problems to global optimality, and these successes were captured in open-source software to enable optimization-based decision-making, and efficient solution of MINLP formulations for electric power transmission grids.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗