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NASA NTRS2017

Extreme Storms

Key Findings: 1. Human activities have contributed substantially to observed ocean-atmosphere variability in the Atlantic Ocean (medium confidence), and these changes have contributed to the observed upward trend in North Atlantic hurricane activity since the 1970s (medium confidence). 2. Both theory and numerical modeling simulations generally indicate an increase in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity in a warmer world, and the models generally show an increase in the number of very intense TCs. For Atlantic and eastern North Pacific hurricanes and western North Pacific typhoons, increases are projected in precipitation rates (high confidence) and intensity (medium confidence). The frequency of the most intense of these storms is projected to increase in the Atlantic and western North Pacific (low confidence) and in the eastern North Pacific (medium confidence). 3. Tornado activity in the United States has become more variable, particularly over the 2000s, with a decrease in the number of days per year with tornadoes and an increase in the number of tornadoes on these days (medium confidence). Confidence in past trends for hail and severe thunderstorm winds, however, is low. Climate models consistently project environmental changes that would putatively support an increase in the frequency and intensity of severe thunderstorms (a category that combines tornadoes, hail, and winds), especially over regions that are currently prone to these hazards, but confidence in the details of this projected increase is low. 4. There has been a trend toward earlier snowmelt and a decrease in snowstorm frequency on the southern margins of climatologically snowy areas (medium confidence). Winter storm tracks have shifted northward since 1950 over the Northern Hemisphere (medium confidence). Projections of winter storm frequency and intensity over the United States vary from increasing to decreasing depending on region, but model agreement is poor and confidence is low. Potential linkages between the frequency and intensity of severe winter storms in the United States and accelerated warming in the Arctic have been postulated, but they are complex, and, to some extent, contested, and confidence in the connection is currently low. 5. The frequency and severity of landfalling "atmospheric rivers" on the U.S. West Coast (narrow streams of moisture that account for 30 percent to 40 percent of the typical snowpack and annual precipitation in the region and are associated with severe flooding events) will increase as a result of increasing evaporation and resulting higher atmospheric water vapor that occurs with increasing temperature. (Medium confidence)

Kossin, J. P.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Comparison of MERRA-2 and ECCO-V4 Ocean Surface Heat Fluxes: Consequences of Different Forcing Feedbacks on Ocean Circulation and Implications for Climate Data Assimilation

Forcing ocean models with reanalysis data is a common practice in ocean modeling. As part of this practice, prescribed atmospheric state variables and interactive ocean SST (Sea Surface Temperature) are used to calculate fluxes between the ocean and the atmosphere. When forcing an ocean model with reanalysis fields, errors in the reanalysis data, errors in the ocean model and errors in the forcing formulation will generate a different solution compared to other ocean reanalysis solutions (which also have their own errors). As a first step towards a consistent coupled ocean-atmosphere reanalysis, we compare surface heat fluxes from a state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis, the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), to heat fluxes from a state-of-the-art oceanic reanalysis, the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean Version 4, Release 2 (ECCO-v4). Then, we investigate the errors associated with the MITgcm (Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model) ocean model in its ECCO-v4 ocean reanalysis configuration (1992-2011) when it is forced with MERRA- 2 atmospheric reanalysis fields instead of with the ECCO-v4 adjoint optimized ERA-interim state variables. This is done by forcing ECCO-v4 ocean with and without feedbacks from MERRA-2 related to turbulent fluxes of heat and moisture and the outgoing long wave radiation. In addition, we introduce an intermediate forcing method that includes only the feedback from the interactive outgoing long wave radiation. The resulting ocean circulation is compared with ECCO-v4 reanalysis and in-situ observations. We show that, without feedbacks, imbalances in the energy and the hydrological cycles of MERRA-2 (which are directly related to the fact it was created without interactive ocean) result in considerable SST drifts and a large reduction in sea level. The bulk formulae and interactive outgoing long wave radiation, although providing air-sea feedbacks and reducing model-data misfit, strongly relax the ocean to observed SST and may result in unwanted features such as large change in the water budget. These features have implications in a desired forcing recipe to be used. The results strongly and unambiguously argue for next generation data assimilation climate studies to involve fully coupled systems.

MERRA-2↗
NASA NTRS2018

Development of the GEOS-MIT gcm Atmosphere-Ocean Model for Coupled Data Assimilation

During the last two plus decades, The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) modeling groups have developed, respectively, atmosphere-only and ocean-only global general circulation models. These two models (GEOS and MIT-GCM (General Circulation Model)) have demonstrated their data assimilation capabilities with the recent releases of the Modern Era Reanalysis for Research Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) atmospheric reanalysis and the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Version 4 (ECCO-v4) ocean (and sea ice) state estimate. Independently, the two modeling groups have also produced global atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations with km-scale grid spacing which proved invaluable for process studies and for the development of satellite and in-situ sampling strategies. Recently, a new effort has been made to couple these two models and to leverage their data-assimilation and high resolution capabilities (i.e., eddy-permitting ocean, cloud-permitting atmosphere). The focus in the model development is put on sub-seasonal to decadal time scales. In this talk, I discuss the new coupled model and present some first coupled simulation results. This will include a high-resolution coupled GEOS-MIT simulation, whereby we have coupled a cubed-sphere-720 (approximately 1/8 degrees) configuration of the GEOS atmosphere to a latitude-longitude-cap-1080 (approximately 1/12 degrees) configuration of the MIT ocean. We compare near-surface diagnostics of this fully coupled ocean-atmosphere set-up to equivalent atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations. In the comparisons we focus in particular on the differences in air-sea interactions between sea surface temperature (SST) and wind for the coupled and uncoupled simulations.

Strobach, Ehud↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Development of the New GEOS-MITgcm Atmosphere-Ocean Model for Coupled Data Assimilation System

During the last two plus decades, The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) modeling groups have developed, respectively, atmosphere-only and ocean-only global general circulation models. These two models (GEOS and MITgcm) have demonstrated their data assimilation capabilities with the recent releases of the Modern Era Reanalysis for Research Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) atmospheric reanalysis and the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Version 4 (ECCO-v4) ocean (and sea ice) state estimate. Independently, the two modeling groups have also produced global atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations with km-scale grid spacing which proved invaluable for process studies and for the development of satellite and in-situ sampling strategies.Recently, a new effort has been made to couple these two models and to leverage their data-assimilation and high resolution capabilities (i.e., eddy-permitting ocean, cloud-permitting atmosphere). The focus in the model development is put on sub-seasonal to decadal time scales. In this talk, I discuss the new coupled model and present some first coupled simulation results. This will include a high-resolution coupled GEOS-MIT simulation, whereby we have coupled a cubed-sphere-720 (~ 1/8 deg) configuration of the GEOS atmosphere to a lat-lon-cap-1080 (~ 1/12 deg) configuration of the MIT ocean. We compare near-surface diagnostics of this fully coupled ocean-atmosphere set-up to equivalent atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations. In the comparisons we focus in particular on the differences in air-sea interactions between sea surface temperature (SST) and wind for the coupled and uncoupled simulations.

Strobach, Ehud↗
NASA NTRS2018

A New Atmosphere-Ocean Model for Studying Air-Sea Interactions and Coupled Data Assimilation

During the last two plus decades, The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) modeling groups have developed, respectively, atmosphere-only and ocean-only global general circulation models. These two models (GEOS and MITgcm) have demonstrated their data assimilation capabilities with the recent releases of the Modern Era Reanalysis for Research Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) atmospheric reanalysis and the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Version 4 (ECCO-v4) ocean (and sea ice) state estimate. Independently, the two modeling groups have also produced global atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations with km-scale grid spacing which proved invaluable for process studies and for the development of satellite and in-situ sampling strategies.Recently, a new effort has been made to couple these two models and to leverage their data-assimilation and high resolution capabilities (i.e., eddy-permitting ocean, cloud-permitting atmosphere). The focus in the model development is put on sub-seasonal to decadal time scales. In this talk, I discuss the new coupled model and present some first coupled simulation results. This will include a high-resolution coupled GEOS-MIT simulation, whereby we have coupled a cubed-sphere-720 (~ 1/8°) configuration of the GEOS atmosphere to a lat-lon-cap-1080 (~ 1/12°) configuration of the MIT ocean. We compare near-surface diagnostics of this fully coupled ocean-atmosphere set-up to equivalent atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations. In the comparisons we focus in particular on the differences in air-sea interactions between sea surface temperature (SST) and wind for the coupled and uncoupled simulations.

Strobach, Ehud↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Development of the New GEOS-MITgcm Atmosphere-Ocean Model for Coupled Data Assimilation System

During the last two plus decades, The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) modeling groups have developed, respectively, atmosphere-only and ocean-only global general circulation models. These two models (GEOS and MITgcm) have demonstrated their data assimilation capabilities with the recent releases of the Modern Era Reanalysis for Research Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) atmospheric reanalysis and the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Version 4 (ECCO-v4) ocean (and sea ice) state estimate. Independently, the two modeling groups have also produced global atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations with km-scale grid spacing which proved invaluable for process studies and for the development of satellite and in-situ sampling strategies.Recently, a new effort has been made to couple these two models and to leverage their data-assimilation and high resolution capabilities (i.e., eddy-permitting ocean, cloud-permitting atmosphere). The focus in the model development is put on sub-seasonal to decadal time scales. In this talk, I discuss the new coupled model and present some first coupled simulation results. This will include a high-resolution coupled GEOS-MIT simulation, whereby we have coupled a cubed-sphere-720 (~ 1/8°) configuration of the GEOS atmosphere to a lat-lon-cap-1080 (~ 1/12°) configuration of the MIT ocean. We compare near-surface diagnostics of this fully coupled ocean-atmosphere set-up to equivalent atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations. In the comparisons we focus in particular on the differences in air-sea interactions between sea surface temperature (SST) and wind for the coupled and uncoupled simulations.

Strobach, Ehud↗
NASA NTRS2018

Consequences of Different Air-Sea Feedbacks on Ocean Using MITgcm and MERRA-2 Forcing: Implications for Coupled Data Assimilation Systems

Ocean surface flux estimates from atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses contain errors that compensate for inaccuracies in the respective atmosphere and ocean models used to generate these reanalyses. A conundrum for climate studies is the discrepancy between surface fluxes that minimize model-data differences for an atmosphere-only model vs surface fluxes that minimize model-data differences for an ocean model. As a first step towards a consistent coupled ocean-atmosphere data-assimilation (DA) system, we compare surface net heat flux from a state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis, the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), to net heat flux from a state-of-the-art ocean state estimate, the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean Version 4 (ECCO-v4). The possible impacts of the MERRA-2 and ECCO-v4 air-sea net heat flux difference in a coupled DA system were assessed using a set of experiments designed to imitate different “flavors” of a coupled DA system in an ocean-only setup. This was done by forcing the ECCO-v4 underlying ocean model - the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) - with different sets of MERRA-2 fields and utilizing different forcing methods. By doing so we were able to turn off different air-sea feedbacks which, in a coupled DA setup, are partially muted by the constraining observations. The set of experiments, therefore, represents a range of active feedbacks in different “flavors” of coupled data-assimilation systems. For the period 1992–2011, MERRA-2 net heat flux has a global mean difference of -4.9 Wm(exp -2) relative to ECCO-v4. When MERRA-2 surface fields are used to force MITgcm, imbalances in the energy and the hydrological cycles of MERRA-2, which are directly related to the fact that MERRA-2 was created without an interactive ocean, propagate to the ocean. The experiment in which MITgcm is forced with MERRA-2 fluxes (MERRA-2-flux experiment) results in a 2.5°C global mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) cooling, a 1m reduction in global mean sea level, and other drastic changes in the large scale ocean circulation relative to those resulting when the MITgcm is forced with the optimized ECCO-v4 net heat flux (the ECCO-v4 experiment itself). When MITgcm is forced with MERRA-2 state variables (MERRA-2-state experiment), the SST is somewhat restored to the observed SST, but the errors are shifted to the water cycle, resulting in a global mean sea level increase of 2.7 m. To further explore the pros and cons of these two approaches, we introduce a new intermediate forcing method in which the ocean is forced with turbulent fluxes but has a long wave feedback. This method, unlike MERRA-2 state, preserves the MERRA-2 water and salinity cycles, and it reduces the SST error compared to the MERRA-2-flux experiment, but the SST is not as good as that in the MERRA-2-state experiment. Our results have implications for ocean-model forcing recipes and clearly reveal the undesirable consequences of limiting the feedbacks in either these types of experiments or in coupled DA.

Ehud Strobach↗
NASA NTRS2019

Polarimetric Retrievals of Cloud Droplet Number Concentrations

Cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) is an important parameter of liquid clouds and is crucial to understanding aerosol-cloud interactions. It couples boundary layer aerosol composition, size and concentration with cloud reflectivity. It affects cloud evolution, precipitation, radiative forcing, global climate and, through observation, can be used to partially monitor the first indirect effect. With its unique combination of multi-wavelength, multi-angle, total and polarized reflectance measurements, the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) retrieves Nd with relatively few assumptions. The approach involves measuring cloud optical thickness, mean droplet extinction cross-section and cloud physical thickness. Polarimetric observations are capable of measuring the effective variance, or width, of the droplet size distribution. Estimating cloud geometrical thickness is also an important component of the polarimetric Nd retrieval, which is accomplished using polarimetric measurements in a water vapor absorption band to retrieve the amount of in-cloud water vapor and relating this to physical thickness. We highlight the unique abilities and quantify uncertainties of the polarimetric approach. We validate the approach using observational data from the North Atlantic and Marine Ecosystems Study (NAAMES). NAAMES targets specific phases in the seasonal phytoplankton lifecycle and ocean-atmosphere linkages. This study provides an excellent opportunity for the RSP to evaluate its approach of sensing Nd over a range of concentrations and cloud types with in situ measurements from a Cloud Droplet Probe (CDP). The RSP and CDP, along with an array of other instruments, are flown on the NASA C-130 aircraft, which flies in situ and remote sensing legs in sequence. Cloud base heights retrieved by the RSP compare well with those derived in situ (R=0.83) and by a ceilometer aboard the R.V. Atlantis (R=0.79). Comparing geometric mean values from 12 science flights throughout the NAAMES-1 and NAAMES-2 campaigns, we find a strong correlation between Nd retrieved by the RSP and CDP (R=0.96). A linear least squares fit has a slope of 0.92 and an intercept of 0.3 cm−3. Uncertainty in this comparison can be attributed to cloud 3D effects, nonlinear liquid water profiles, multilayered clouds, measurement uncertainty, variation in spatial and temporal sampling, and assumptions used within the method. Radiometric uncertainties of the RSP measurements lead to biases on derived optical thickness and cloud physical thickness, but these biases largely cancel out when deriving Nd for most conditions and geometries. We find that a polarimetric approach to sensing Nd is viable and the RSP is capable of accurately retrieving Nd for a variety of cloud types and meteorological conditions.

Droplet concentration↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, Ocean Ecosystem (PACE) Mission: Status, Science, Advances

The PACE mission represents NASA’s next investment in ocean color, cloud, and aerosol data records to enable continued and advanced insight into oceanographic and atmospheric responses to Earth’s changing climate. The Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission represents NASA’s next investment in satellite ocean color and the study of Earth’s ocean-atmosphere system, enabling new insights into oceanographic and atmospheric responses to Earth's changing climate. PACE objectives include extending systematic cloud, aerosol, and ocean biological and biogeochemical data records, making essential ocean color measurements to further understand marine carbon cycles, food web processes, and ecosystem responses to a changing climate, and improving knowledge of how aerosols influence ocean ecosystems and, conversely, how ocean ecosystems and photochemical processes affect the atmosphere. PACE objectives also encompass management of fisheries, large freshwater bodies, and air and water quality and reducing uncertainties in climate and radiative forcing models of the Earth system. PACE observations will provide information on radiative properties of land surfaces and characterization of the vegetation and soils that dominate their reflectance. The primary PACE instrument is a spectrometer that spans the ultraviolet to shortwave infrared, with a ground sample distance of 1-km at nadir. This payload is complemented by two multi-angle polarimeters with spectral ranges that span the visible to near-infrared region. Scheduled for launch in late 2022-to-early 2023, the PACE observatory will enable significant advances in the study of Earth’s biogeochemistry, carbon cycle, clouds, hydrosols, and aerosols in the ocean-atmosphere-land system. Here, we present an overview of the PACE mission, including its developmental history, science objectives, instrument payload, observatory characteristics, and data products.

P Jeremy Werdell↗
NASA NTRS2019

The NASA Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, Ocean Ecosystem (PACE) Mission: an Emerging Era of Global, Hyperspectral Earth System Remote Sensing

The Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission represents NASA's next investment in satellite ocean color and the study of Earth's ocean-atmosphere system, enabling new insights into oceanographic and atmospheric responses to Earth's changing climate. PACE objectives include extending systematic cloud, aerosol, and ocean biological and biogeochemical data records, making essential ocean color measurements to further understand marine carbon cycles and ecosystem responses to a changing climate, and improving knowledge of how aerosols influence ocean ecosystems and, conversely, how ocean ecosystems and photochemical processes affect the atmosphere.

Gorman, Eric T.↗
NASA NTRS2021

The MJO-QBO Relationship in a GCM with Stratospheric Nudging

Observational studies show a strong connection between the intraseasonal Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO): the boreal winter MJO is stronger, more predictable, and has different teleconnections when the QBO in the lower stratosphere is easterly versus westerly. Despite the strength of the observed connection, global climate models do not produce an MJO-QBO link. Here the authors use a current-generation ocean-atmosphere coupled NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model (Model E2.1) to examine the MJO-QBO link. To represent the QBO with minimal bias, the model zonal mean stratospheric zonal and meridional winds are relaxed to reanalysis fields from 1980-2017. The model troposphere, including the MJO, is allowed to freely evolve. The model with stratospheric nudging captures QBO signals well, including QBO temperature anomalies. However, an ensemble of nudged simulations still lacks an MJO-QBO connection.

Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO)↗
NASA NTRS2021

Drought Relief and Reversal Over North America from 1500 to 2016

Season-to-season persistence of soil moisture drought varies across North America. Such inter-seasonal autocorrelation can have modest skill in forecasting future conditions several months in advance. Because robust instrumental observations of precipitation span less than 100 years, the temporal stability of the relationship between seasonal moisture anomalies is uncertain. The North American Seasonal Precipitation Atlas (NASPA) is a gridded network of separately reconstructed cool (December-April) and warm (May-July) season precipitation series and offers new insights on the intra-annual changes in drought for up to 2,000 years. Here, the NASPA precipitation reconstructions are rescaled to represent the long-term soil moisture balance during the cool season and three-month long atmospheric moisture during the warm season. These rescaled seasonal reconstructions are then used to quantify the frequency, magnitude, and spatial extent of cool season drought that was relieved or reversed during the following summer months. The adjusted seasonal reconstructions reproduce the general patterns of large-scale drought amelioration and termination in the instrumental record during the 20th century and are used to estimate relief and reversals for the most skillfully reconstructed past 500-years. Sub-continental to continental scale reversals of cool season drought in the following warm season have been rare, but the reconstructions display periods prior to the instrumental data of increased reversal probabilities for the Mid-Atlantic region and the US Southwest. Drought relief at the continental scale may arise in part from macroscale ocean-atmosphere processes, while the smaller scale regional reversals may reflect land-surface feedbacks and stochastic variability.

Drought↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effect of Rain-Adjusted Satellite Sea Surface Salinity on ENSO Predictions from the GMAO S2S Forecast System

ENSO has a significant impact on climate variability throughout the world and so has been the key focus for improving coupled ocean-atmosphere forecasts. Assimilation of altimetry and in situ data lead to improved short-term forecasts of the coupled system. However, few studies have focused on improving the near-surface density/mixing through assimilation of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS). For expediency, most projects that do assimilate SSS do so as if these data were observed at the top model layer instead of at the surface. In rainy regions where buoyant water sits as a fresh lens at the surface, this assumption is likely invalid. Therefore, we adjust SSS so that it more accurately represents the salinity at the first model layer. The Rain Impact Model (RIM) uses a simple diffusion model to determine the near surface salinity gradient (i.e., 1 cm to 5 m). Satellite SSS data are modified using this near-surface salinity gradient, so the salinity values are now valid at the first model layer (we call this SSS@5m). We assess the impact of satellite SSS observations for near-surface dynamics within ocean reanalyses and how these impact dynamical ENSO forecasts using the NASA GMAO S2S coupled system. For all reanalysis experiments, all available along-track sea level and in situ observations are assimilated for 2011 to 2020 using the LETKF scheme (Penny et al., 2013). One reanalysis assimilates Aquarius /SMAP SSS as before. An additional reanalysis is performed assimilating the SSS@5m data. Validation statistics are compared for experiments that assimilate SSS (sub-optimally as before) versus the SSS@5m. We also compare results of coupled forecasts that are initialized from these reanalyses in spring. For all but the big La Niña in 2017, all NINO3.4 forecasts were improved by using the RIM. We will show that improved SSS estimates upgrades density and near-surface mixing leading to more accurate coupled air/sea interaction and better forecasts.

ENSO↗
NASA NTRS2021

Magma Ocean Evolution of the TRAPPIST-1 Planets

Recent observations of the potentially habitable planets TRAPPIST-1 e, f, and g suggest that they possess large water mass fractions of possibly several tens of wt% of water, even though the host star’s activity should drive rapid atmospheric escape. These processes can photolyze water, generating free oxygen and possibly desiccating the planet. After the planets formed, their mantles were likely completely molten with volatiles dissolving and exsolving from the melt. In order to understand these planets and prepare for future observations, the magma ocean phase of these worlds must be understood. To simulate these planets, we have combined existing models of stellar evolution, atmospheric escape, tidal heating, radiogenic heating, magma ocean cooling, planetary radiation, and water-oxygen-iron geochemistry. We present Magm Oc, a versatile magma ocean evolution model, validated against the rocky Super-Earth GJ 1132b and early Earth. We simulate the coupled magma ocean-atmospheric evolution of TRAPPIST-1 e, f, and g for a range of tidal and radiogenic heating rates, as well as initial water contents between 1 and 100 Earth oceans. We also reanalyze the structures of these planets and find they have water mass fractions of 0–0.23, 0.01–0.21, and 0.11–0.24 for planets e, f, and g, respectively. Our model does not make a strong prediction about the water and oxygen content of the atmosphere of TRAPPIST-1 e at the time of mantle solidification. In contrast, the model predicts that TRAPPIST-1 f and g would have a thick steam atmosphere with a small amount of oxygen at that stage. For all planets that we investigated, we find that only 3 ́5% of the initial water will be locked in the mantle after the magma ocean solidified.

Exoplanets↗
NASA NTRS2022

The Turning Point of the Aerosol Era

Over the CMIP6 historical period (1850–2014), aerosols provided the largest negative forcing compared to all other climate forcings via their ability to absorb or scatter solar radiation and alter clouds. Aerosols played an important role in counterbalancing warming by greenhouse gases (GHGs). Here we study aerosol forcing trends in the CMIP6 simulations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ocean-atmosphere ModelE version 2.1 (GISS-E2.1-G) using a fully coupled atmospheric composition configuration, including interactive gas-phase chemistry, and either an aerosol microphysical (MATRIX) or a mass-based aerosol (OMA) module. Simulations of the CMIP6 historical period are analyzed as well as four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) future scenarios for 2015–2100: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. The main conclusion of this study is that aerosol forcing in the GISS model has reached its turning point, switching from globally increasing to a decreasing trend in the first decade of the 21st century. This result is robust, independent of which aerosol module or SSP scenario is used. Non-linear aerosol-cloud interactions dominate as a forcing agent over aerosol-radiation interactions. Aerosols' ability to counterbalance GHG forcing on the global scale is today at a level comparable to that at the beginning of the last century. In the 1980s, the decade of largest global aerosol loads, aerosols balanced up to 80% of GHG forcing. As a consequence, global warming of the last decades, which is primarily driven by greenhouse gases, has been augmented by the effect of decreasing aerosol cooling in our model. By the end of this century, following the SSP scenarios, aerosols will only counterbalance 0%–20% of GHG forcing, depending on model and on scenario.

Aerosol forcing↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Role of Tropical Cyclone—Ocean Interactions in Future Changes in Hurricane Katrina

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and precipitation are projected to increase in the future. However, some projections are based on atmosphere‐only models in which sea surface temperatures are prescribed, whereas projections based on global atmosphere‐ocean coupled models can be subject to long‐term ocean biases. We investigated the role of TC‐ocean interactions in future changes in TC intensity and precipitation in Hurricane Katrina. We performed four‐member ensembles using convection‐permitting atmosphere‐only and atmosphere‐ocean regional models for the historical climate and four future climates. We found that although future TC intensity and precipitation increased regardless of ocean coupling, ocean coupling dampened the future minimum sea‐level pressure decrease by half and amplified future precipitation scaling. Compared to future changes in upper‐ocean temperature, changes in salinity contributed little to future changes in TC intensity. This study highlights the importance of considering TC‐ocean interactions to reduce uncertainty in the magnitude of future TC intensity and precipitation projections.

climate change↗